Quarterback. The consensus most important position on the field at probably all levels of football. You don’t need a first round pick QB to have a special season or win a National Title, but you better at least have a really good QB who is playing well (hello, 2024’s Will Howard).
2025 NFL Draft Top 10 Insights for the Big Ten – Big Jeff’s Football
In this Big Jeff’s article we provide 2025 Big Ten projected quarterback passer ratings for the regular season (in the table below) for all 18 projected Big Ten starters. Teams with higher rated passers will greatly increase their chances for success on the field. Quarterback play can make or break a season.
2025 Big Ten Projected Quarterback Passer Ratings
Please see the links right below as well for the “audio version” of this information where we reviewed all of this for my weekly “Big Jeff’s Football Insights” podcast on Thursday’s at 9 pm EST on @TheBigTenHuddle.
On X: (1) The Big Ten Huddle 🎙️ on X: “Projected Big Ten QBs’ NFL Passer Rating in 2025, per @bigjeffsftball Watch Jeff and @jrs_rankings discuss and debate it all: https://t.co/snm0WW9L8V https://t.co/pKk4DysGBi” / X
On YouTube: Projecting the Passing Stats for EVERY Big Ten QB in 2025
An important note is this is not a pure ranking of all Big Ten quarterbacks because the rating does not properly account for running ability and rushing statistics, which obviously can make any quarterback more valuable and their team that much more difficult to defend.
So. running oriented QBs will be undervalued by this pure passing metric rating. A good example of who this impacts is Washington’s Demond Williams Jr. who rushed for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2024 in limited action mostly as a change of pass for starter Will Rogers. Even Penn State’s Drew Allar’s good running ability is not valued here – and likely athletic QBs like Fernando Mendoza, Aidan Chiles, and Bryce Underwood.
Luke Altmyer.
Also, the stats and ratings are influenced by factors beyond the quarterbacks skills like how good is their team and offensive system, what kind of weapons do they have to throw to, (especially their wide receiver core), experience, offensive line, etc.
The quarterback rating I use is an NFL oriented rating that Pro Football Focus also uses for college quarterbacks and is calculated based on four main stats from a quarterback’s passing game:
- (1) completion percentage
- (2) yards per attempt
- (3) touchdowns per attempt
- (4) interceptions per attempt
My table shows the more familiar raw data used to make those calculations, like completion/attempts, % completion rate, yards, TDs, INTs) since fans can relate to these traditional numbers easier.
Note that last year Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke led the Big Ten with a 122.5 passer rating. Drew Allar is the top returning Big Ten quarterback with a 111.7 rating good for 4th last year behind Ohio State’s Will Howard (2nd) and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel (3rd). Illinois’ Luke Altmyer was the second best returning Big Ten quarterback and was 5th best last year with a 99.8 rating.
The Top 5 List Includes
- Drew Allar (Penn State): 119.8
- Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): 112.4
- Julian Sayin (Ohio State): 107.0
- Luke Altmyer (Illinois): 104.2
- Dylan Raiola (Nebraska): 100.7
Main Quarterback Comparison and High Level Assumptions
Below I include some brief assumptions I used for each quarterback in projecting their stats and producing their ratings.
- Drew Allar (Penn State): Comp is last year’s Drew Allar with natural progression of improved stats in Year 3 similar to what we saw from year 1 to 2 under Allar. Also helped by a better WR core and stats to look similar to Will Howard and Dillon Gabriel last year.
- Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): Comp is 2024 Kurtis Rourke due to similar receivers and offensive line but stats may be a little down due to tougher 2025 Indiana schedule. Also, Mendoza has experience but not as much as Rourke had.
- Julian Sayin (Ohio State): Comp is 2021 CJ Stroud in his first year starting but downgrading many stats by 10% or so due to Stroud’s huge first year campaign. Like Stroud, Sayin will have the likely best WR group in the nation (including elite Jeremiah Smith) and a very high level Tight End in Max Klare.
- Luke Altmyer (Illinois): Comp is Altmyer in 2024 and he has 18 of 21 starters from bowl game returning so I have many stats increasing by about 10%. Due to his experience and losing his leading rusher, I expect Illinois to throw more this year.
- Dylan Raiola (Nebraska): Comp is the QB rating high four star Michigan QB JJ McCarthy had from his first full year starting to his second year (a 15.5 point improvement). This includes 15% increase in yards per completed pass helped by experience and a better WR group.
- Dante Moore (Oregon): The last two years Oregon had great results with experienced transfers Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel, but Moore is not as experienced as those two so Comp is Gabriel but with reduced results. But Moore has same offensive system and good weapons and WR group but stats also will be down from less pass attempts and more reliance on run game.
- Aidan Chiles (Michigan State): Similar to Raiola Comp is the 15.5 rating point increase JJ McCarthy saw in his second full year starting. Might have 2nd best WR in Big Ten in Nick Marsh so expect stats to improve across the board as Chiles will be passing more due to higher coaching confidence.
- Nico Iamaleava (UCLA): Come is 2024 Iamaleava and 2024 UCLA starter Ethan Garbers. Due to new OC and worse WR group than TN, I expect Nico’s pass % and Yards per Catch to stay about the same.
- Jayden Maiava (USC): Comp is 2024 Miller Moss and Maiva combined. USC with highly rated WR group so expect 450 attempts to once again lead the Big Ten. Same completion % and yards per catch as Moss.
- Mark Gronowski (Northwestern): Hard to find last really good Iowa QB but Comp is 2015 CJ Beathard Jr. his senior year. Same 60% completions and 300 attempts.
- Athan Kaliakmanis (Rutgers): Comp is 2023 Kaliakmanis at Minnesota. Due to experience and 2nd year at Rutgers will increase completion by 5 points to 57.4%, and increase pass attempts by 5% since with tougehr schedule Rutgers likely to be behind more.
- Demond Williams Jr. (Washington): Has little experience so Comp will work off previous year’s starter WIll Roger’s data for his 11 games played. Pass attempts to decrease by 4/game due to strong RB Jonah Coleman and Williams running ability. A TD/INT ratio closer but better to what Raiola and Chiles had in their Year 1 QB years.
- Billy Edwards Jr. (Wisconsin): Comp is Edwards Jr. for Maryland in 2024 and Braedyn Lock in 2024. Assume Badgers get back to ground based offense, with fewer passes for Edwards and completion % going down to 60% from less talented WR group. But experience means better TD/INT ratio.
- Preston Stone (Northwestern): 2023 Ben Bryant who was starter in David Braun’s first year. Weak WR group limits ceiling though. NW with tough schedule so assume they will behind quite often lifting passing stats.
- Bryce Underwood (Michigan): Comp is JJ McCarthy in 2022 his first full year starting for Michigan. Expect Wolverines to lean on talented RB duo (Marshall/Haynes) and use Underwoods athletic ability so pass attempts will be more limited. Same yards/completion as McCarthy.
- Justyn Martin (Maryland): Debatable who will start. Could also be 4 star freshman Malik Washington. With Locksley’s job status not in a great start I doubt he starts a freshman. Best Comp is Billy Edwards in 2024 but with worse WR group. Completion % will decline, but yards per catch and 15/9 TD to INT .
- Ryan Browne (Purdue): are 4 candidates for Purdue with no clear lead but I will go with Browne who played a good amount in 2024; assume a little better completion % and slightly improved TD/INT ratio.
- Drake Lindsey (Minnesota): Super unknown what to expect situation. Can’t compare to Brosmer as he had way too much experience. Lindsey with no real experience. Comp is 2023 MN starter Kaliakmanis. Same # of passes due to young QB and relying on stron RB Darius Taylor. Weak WR group so assume Braedyn Locke like 55% completion %, and same yards per catch and TD/INT ratio as Kaliakmanis.
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