2026 National Championship Analysis and Prediction, plus Big Ten Bowl Summary

TOPIC 1: Big Ten Bowl/Playoff Review

First let’s review the results to date for the Big Ten and my predictions as well. See the Table below for a summary of my bowl picks with rows in Green background for my winning picks.

• With Big Ten teams IU vs Oregon playing themselves, The Big Ten is now 10-5 overall and 4-2 in the playoffs but most importantly will finish 3-1 against the SEC with the only loss of Michigan to Texas.
• As a reminder, the SEC finished 4-9 overall with 2 of those wins against themselves.  And for 3^rd straight year don’t even have a team in the title game.
• While it might mean more in the SEC, their talking heads will probably argue the bowl games don’t mean anything which seems to be contradictory since last I checked when competitive coaches and players get on a football field they want to win badly since they are competitors after all.
• For my personal Big Ten picks, after going 30-30 in the regular season vs the spread, I am a stellar 10-4 overall in bowl/playoff season after choosing Indiana correctly in the semifinals.
• Looking at this table the games in Green cells are my right picks and light tan cells are my 4 wrong picks
• Specific to the Oregon vs Indiana Semi-Final Game
  • I know JR and Zack already provided a summary of thoughts but I was there in person with my 2 boys and we happened to be at the 10 yard line Row 30 in the middle of the Oregon section which was still half Indiana fans.
  • It really was crazy that the IU to Oregon fan ratio was at least 90/10.  I was expecting 80/20 but it was truly a sea of red and almost like the Georgia Bulldogs were playing in Atlanta and not the Hoosiers.
  • And it wasn’t in just the stadium of course it was all a sea of red all over downtown Atlanta as well. 
  • Really amazing but makes sense since if you’re a Ducks fan many probably pay to see the first round game to make sure you get to see them, but once they won then your likely thinking I will save my money hopefully for the Championship in Miami – both were cross country trips and there is only so much money you have.
  • I am a believer that one play early can make a huge difference in deciding an outcome of the game.  I don’t know if Oregon could have beat Indiana anyway since they did not have the healthy running backs needed to run the ball to keep the ball from Mendoza, but that Donte Moore opening pick 6 just set the tone for the game and made IU believe even more than the already did that they were destined to win the game.
  • I thought to myself there is almost no doubt IU will win this game.  It just felt pre-ordained at that point.
  • Oregon’s inability to stop the Indiana run game was the other early indicator this was not going to be a fun night for the Ducks.  Often good run games don’t get going until later when the defense starts to tire but IU ran the ball well from the start and finished with 185 yards at 4.6 yards/carry – in their first meeting IU only had 111 yards at 3.0 yards/carry.
  • To have a chance to beat Indiana you have to contain their run game and teams like Iowa, Penn State and even Ohio State have which gave all of them a good chance to win – all 3 of those teams were one play away from beating Indiana.
• Some Other Thoughts on what we have seen
  • On Oregon – I do think Oregon is better than that game.  Sometimes once the game gets away from you and players know it, its just hard to keep up the intensity. 
  • The reality is those Running Back injuries were just too much to overcome.
  • But it is also true their schedule, similar to Ohio State was not the toughest. 
  • It’s 3 years in a row for Dan Lanning now to end the season with a very frustrating loss.  3 years ago it was losing a tight one to arch-rival Washington in the final Pac 12 title game.
  • Of course, last year it was getting blown out by Ohio State in the quarterfinal Rose Bowl game that included being down 34-0 midway through the 2^nd quarter.
  • Then they lose by 34 to Indiana and were down 35-7 at halftime so the last 2 years it was by embarrassing blowouts.
  • But I don’t think at all Lanning is over-rated or Ducks fans should be worried.  Bad things can happen to even good teams and all of them are learning experiences for coaches.  
  • Ryan Day supposedly couldn’t win big games or beat Michigan and then all of a sudden he did.   I think it will happen for Oregon and Lanning and with Donte Moore announcing he is coming back Oregon might open next season with the #1 ranking. 
  • Ohio State – First, when Ohio State lost to Indiana at first in the Big Ten champ game and then to Miami in the Quarters, it made many wonder how good was Ohio State anyway since their schedule did turn out to be not as difficult as it appeared to start the year with games against pre-season #1 Texas and then Penn State who I think was 3^rd.
  • But now we have the only 2 teams Ohio State lost to playing for the National Championship.   Does that sound familiar?
  • Amazingly, that is exactly what Indiana could say last year as they lost at Ohio State in the regular season and at Notre Dame in the first round playoff game last year.
  • I have said this before but the main reason OSU did not repeat as champs is their young Offensive Line was only a little better than average this year and it showed in their lack of a consistent running game.
  • Indiana and Miami (along with Texas Tech I think) are among the 3 best Defensive Lines in college football and I put Miami as the most talented so those were just really bad matchups for Ohio State and yet they were in position to win those games.
  • Ohio State lost by 3, 13-10 to Indiana and missed less than 30 yard game tying field goal with less than 3 minutes left.  Make no mistake, Indiana played better and deserved to win but that was literally a one play difference game.
  • So other than Ohio State holding Indiana to a season low 13 points, the next lowest scoring output for IU was 20 to Iowa and after that it was 27 to Old Dominion.
  • Against Miami, down 7-0 but driving in FG range Julian Sayin threw that Pick 6 to go down 14-0 but that really wasn’t a 7 point swing that was a 10 point swing since almost for sure OSU kicks a FG there.  You can make a case OSU would have won that game without that play – but they didn’t and Miami deserved to win.
  • But I think for Ohio State, the results after those 2 losses clearly to me shows they were the 3^rd best team in the nation with a truly elite defense.
  • I point out all that to be able to say the Big Ten had probably 3 of the best 4 teams in the nation with Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon – and that combined with the bowl record shows the Big Ten is the best right now.
  • One thing I was wrong on:  I thought only teams that had strong depth due to great Top 10 like recruiting would win national championships and if Indiana wins, that will definitively prove me wrong.
  • Indiana will truly have broken the mold but I really believe, because of Cignetti IU is a true outlier and nobody can exactly duplicate what they have done even though some will try to emulate IU.

TOPIC 2: Special Topic: My insights on some dynamics that are currently happening in the sport.

Before getting into the Title game, I wanted to briefly comment on the state of college football and what is happening.

• I think we all can agree this current off season portal activity has truly been insane.  I hate hyperbole but INSANE really is the word for this.
• This current annual player free agency is not good for college football and not as good for the players as much as they think.
• BUT, it is not going to ruin the game, because first we love it and will watch it probably no matter what and 2^nd, there is no way things can stay the way they are with rosters flipping so much.
• I believe in 2 or 3 years, college football will ID and execute a system that allows to players to greatly benefit financially, allow some flexibility but also put up some reasonable guard rails for teams to manage rosters.
• It certainly may include some form of collective bargaining and make players similar to employees and It could look something like enforceable contracts or after signing with a team, you get one transfer opportunity without any restrictions, and the second transfer might involve sitting out a year or some type of restriction.  Then players who graduate can transfer where they want like it is now.
• I don’t know what it will look like but it won’t be annual free agency.
• This is also why Recruiting will still remain important. It will just look different.
• Some players will still want sign at a school and play 3 or 4 years before going pro.  Those players will be the anchor of your program.
• You just may see teams trying to sign 15 vs 25 kids to give yourselves more roster flexibility and ability to go after experienced difference making players.
• So again, I don’t think Recruiting will just go by the wayside but certainly Cignetti and Indiana has dramatically changed the way teams will think about getting and managing talent and their rosters.

TOPIC 3: CFP Finals (1 game)

Odds by FanDuel as of 1.17.26.

Semi-Final Round: #1 Indiana -8.5 #10 Miami (Miami, FL) 48.5 O/U – per FanDuel

Background:

Indiana is seeking their first football national championship ever and first national championship in one of the two big major college sports (football and basketball) since Indiana won the 1987 basketball championship (39 years ago!) over Syracuse my freshman year at Indiana, which was Bob Knight’s 3^rd and final championship at Indiana and those of you old enough will remember that Keith Smart hit the game clinching jump shot to seal the victory.

Indiana fans have been starved for their marquee teams to do something special for a LONG, LONG time so that is feeding this frenzy everyone is seeing from this huge and passionate fan base. 

Indiana is ranked #1 of course and is currently 15-0 and 26-2 under Curt Cignetti in his two years at IU. 

IU is looking to be the first team to go 16-0 in the modern football era if they can beat Miami.  And they would be looked at as among the best college football teams of all time I think.  Though some of that may depend on how their players do at the NFL level, which can strengthen the case for any college team.

For the Big Ten, this of course would be huge as it would be the 3^rd National Title in a row after blue-bloods Michigan and Ohio State won it the last two years but this title would be made even bigger that it would be the 3^rd different team that won it and a team that has no strong history of football as well.

As we have covered, it’s hard to argue the Big Ten is not the best current football conference but this would confirm that even more so it’s a huge game.

Miami comes in 13-2 overall as the 10^th ranked team and had to beat 3 teams to get here that included at Texas A&M in round 10-3, Ohio State in the quarterfinals 24-14 and then Ole Miss in the semi-finals 31-27.   So that is wins of 7, 10 and 4 points (though they should have beat Ole Miss by much more) and shows that clearly the Canes are comfortable in finding ways to win in close games.

ESPN SP+ has Indiana ranked #1 overall with the #2 ranked defense in the nation (only behind Ohio State) and #2 offense (only behind North Texas, if you believe that) – so this is amazing balance and shows IU does not have one glaring weakness. 

Miami ranks #9 overall in SP+ with the 6th ranked Defense and #20 ranked offense.  Going by SP+ rating points, Indiana is 11.1 points better than Miami (33.1 minus 22.0), greater than the FanDuel point spread.

It’s amazing to consider that after Miami the highest rated SP+ ACC team is — #26 Louisville and then the ACC Champion Virginia is only rated 31^st.  

That conference weakness is one of the reasons why Miami barely made the playoff field and why up until the last ranking the committee had Notre Dame rated higher than Miami – but to be clear I felt given Miami won in the head-to-head that the Committee made a mistake in having Notre Dame over Miami.

Helped by the game vs Notre Dame and the opponents in their 3 playoff wins, Pro Football Focus has Miami with the 12^th best Strength of Schedule in the nation while Indiana has the 27^th best.

If you care about ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, they have Indiana with a 68.3% chance to win over Miami.

Why Indiana Can Cover:

1-For the most important position in sports, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza is simply better and much more consistent than Carson Beck, who would need one of his best played games ever to likely match what Mendoza will do in this game.

I was worried when Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman with all it’s hype, that it may become a distraction for Indiana’s playoff run and cause him to lower his level of play.  He even sought out advice on how to not make it a distraction and man has it worked because he has taken his already Heisman level QB play to a whole new level.

In his two playoff games vs Alabama and Oregon he has achieved his two highest QBR ratings of the season (from ESPN) with a 96.7 vs Alabama and a season high 98.5 vs Oregon.

In those two games he is 31 of 36 (86% completions) for 369 yards (184 avg), with 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.  Plus, he has run for another 44 yards, despite being sacked 4 times.  

Mendoza’s running ability has been a big hidden weapon all season and has only continued in the playoffs as several times he has ran for a key first down on 3^rd on long situations.

The passing yards have not been a lot but it’s because Indiana has been so efficient in blowing out teams that there has been little need to throw much in the second half. 

The bigger thing is in the playoffs Mendoza has eliminated some of those key interceptions he threw vs Iowa, Oregon and Penn State that required him to make up for it with 4^th quarter heroics.

Carson Beck has been very solid and steady in Miami’s 3 playoff wins but his average 3 game QBR is just 78.0 (60.4 vs A&M, 95.2 vs OSU, 78.3 vs OleMiss), though the A&M game was in windy and poor passing type conditions.  Beck’s combined 3 game playoff stats are 56 for 83 (67%) for 509 yards (179 avg), and 4 touchdowns with 1 interception vs Ole Miss in the semi-finals.

But for those who have watched, Becks has made some throws that make you say “what was that”.  In some cases, they are potential interceptions and in others like early in the Ole Miss game missing an easy TD to Malachi Toney over the middle, Beck has been a mixed bag and just doesn’t have the consistency you expect with such an experienced player.

For the season Mendoza’s QBR is 90.2 and Beck’s is 78.3.  Both these quarterbacks are very experienced as Mendoza is 22 and Beck is 23 and each has multiple years of starting experience but which quarterback do you trust more to play and efficient game and come through in clutch moments – it certainly is Mendoza.

2-Indiana has a big edge in the ability to generate turnovers and win the turnover battle for extra possessions, plus they make way fewer mistakes and penalties so are likely to win the “hidden yardage” battle.  These are game winning, difference makers.

I highlighted this last week and it showed in the Oregon game with that early crucial Pick Six from CB DeAngelo Ponds, but after winning the turnover battle 3-0 vs Oregon, Indiana is now first in the FBS in turnover margin at +21 on the year (were tied with Arizona). 

Incredibly they still only have 8 turnovers on the year (tied for 3^rd in nation) and only have 1 lost fumble.  They now have 29 takeaways (3^rd in nation) including 18 interceptions.  Key to this has been their disruptive front seven in getting pressure on the QB creating mistakes.

Miami ranks well in turnover margin at +11 on the year (10^th in nation) with 14 lost turnovers and 25 gained turnovers including 16 interceptions. 

In the playoffs, Indiana is +4 in Margin with 0 turnovers, while Miami is +2 in one more game with 5 takeaways but 3 turnovers (1 in each game). Clearly Miami is more likely to have turnovers which against Indiana’s efficiency is often a death knell.

Looking at the hidden yards of penalties, Indiana is 5^th fewest in the nation with 3.7 penalties/game (but that’s only 3^rd best in the Big Ten behind Iowa and WI), and Indiana is 2^nd best in the nation at penalty yards with only an average 27 penalty yards/game.

Meanwhile, Miami is 84^th in the nation at 57 penalty yards/game (30 yards more than IU) and Miami averages 7 penalties/game (3.3 more than IU) which is tied for 103^rd in the nation.  Remember also, it’s not just penalty yards since a pass interference or personal foul awards the other team an automatic first down that is not reflected in the yardage penalty stats.

Again, Indiana is more likely to benefit from a key Miami penalty.

3-Indiana is playing with absolute confidence they not only can beat any team, they are the best team in the nation, led by maybe the best defense in the nation.

I said this same thing about Oregon as well.  I was worried after Indiana beat Ohio State for the Big Ten championship game, that they might get impacted by the infamous “rat poison” that success brings when everyone is singing your praises and telling you how great you are which can impact teams motivation and focus. 

None of that is happening to this Indiana team and that’s a credit to Curt Cignetti and his coaching staff but it’s also a factor of how much older and experienced Indiana is across their starting position groups.

And now that we are down to the final game, and the fact that Indiana knows Miami beat Ohio State who Indiana barely beat by 3 points, I can’t see Indiana coming in overconfident and they know this Miami team is really good and IU needs to play their best to win.

And then again, I have been saying this since after last season but the Indiana defense is the unit that is the team’s biggest strength with no weakness across all 3 position groups.

Indiana is second in the nation only to Ohio State in Scoring Defense giving up 11.1 points/game and are #4 in Total Defense yielding only 261 yards/game. And most importantly Indiana is best in Run Defense which is exactly an area that Miami needs to thrive in if they want to spring this upset. 

IU is #2 in the nation (with only Texas Tech being better) giving up only 75.0 rushing yards/game and 7^th in the nation at 2.87 yards/carry given up.

Indiana has held all teams but 2 to 15 or less points.   Oregon scored 20 and 22 vs IU in their two meetings and then Penn State scored the most which was 24 in their 27-24 loss to IU.  I believe it will be hard for Miami to score over 20 points against IU.

Why Take the Points with Miami:

1-Miami has the ability to run the ball behind Mark Fletcher and wear down the Indiana defense which is not deep but has mitigated that by generating so many turnovers.

It was mentioned during the Semi-finals vs Oregon, but Indiana mostly only plays 13 guys on defense.  They are not very deep so Miami running the ball, limiting Indiana possiesions, and wearing down the Indiana defense so the Canes can win the 4^th quarter should be a key part of their game plan. 

Against, Ole Miss I did not understand why Miami and OC Shannon Dawson did not stick to the run even more when it was clearly working.  Hopefully Dawson learned his lesson and I expect we will see a lot of Mark Fletcher pounding the rock.

Indiana’s run defense is 2^nd in the nation giving up 75 yards/game but this is certainly helped by Indiana often being ahead by a lot in second halves but by yard/rush IU is still 7^th at 2.87 yards/carry given up.

Miami’s rushing offense is only ranked 72^nd in the nation at 155 yards/game and 4.25 yards/carry but that rush offense is peaking at the right time for Miami and Mark Fletcher has really shined in the playoffs:

• Texas A&M 17 for 172 at 10.1/carry
• Ohio State 19 for 90 at 4.7/carry
• Ole Miss 22 for 133 at 6.0/carry

Plus Miami likes to use WR Malachi Toney as an extension of the run game leveraging him for short passes and letting him beat people in space as he has 1,089 receiving yards and 113 rush yards.

In fact, Toney is probably the most pure talented skill player on both teams and is a wild card that could carry Miami to an upset if he has a really big game.

No doubt though, rushing success will be extremely important for the Canes.

2-Strong font sevens like Miami has, have been able to slow down the Indiana running game and make them more one-dimensional.  This is a very key aspect Miami must do to pull the upset.

When Indiana faces  talented and physical defensive front sevens, their Big Ten leading rushing offense (218.3 ypg) that is 12^th in the nation has somewhat struggled.

I have numbers that show this in the table below.

In 9 games against the weaker rated defensive fronts and rushing defenses, Indiana averaged a whopping 285 rushing yards/game and 6.5 yards/carry.  

Now I am leaving off this last Oregon game, but excluding that game, in their other 5 games against talented and/or highly rated front sevens they averaged only 105 rushing yards/game and just 2.9 yards/carry.  Those 5 better teams included Iowa, the first Oregon game, Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State.

But the caveat here is against Oregon’s talented front in the semifinals, IU did have really good success with 185 yards at 4.6/carry.  If Indiana does that again, I think they easily beat Miami.

BUT, Miami’s defense is one of the best in the nation ranking 6^th in rushing defense at 86.5 yards/game and only give up 2.95 yards/rush which is 10^th in the nation.  The only rush defense Indiana has faced that is similar statistically is Ohio State (7^th in YPG, 9^th Yards/rush) where IU had 118 yards rushing at 3.5/carry.

With Mesidor and Bain on the line who are projected first round NFL picks, Miami certainly has the personnel to contain the IU rush attack.

Big Jeff’s Call:   I think both these teams feel they are a team of destiny and both are very hungry to win a Championship, so I think both are equally motivated. 

Plus, unlike Ohio State and Oregon, neither team has an OC or DC leaving for a head coaching job as a distraction and so that is big as well.  Plus, health wise it feels both these teams are in really good shape.

Given Indiana’s efficiency, Miami can’t lose the turnover battle by more than 1 and they need to play closer to how they did vs Ohio State when they had no penalties (which is really annoying and amazing). 

It’s also an absolute must for Miami to contain the Indiana run game.  I think if Indiana runs for more than say 140 yards Miami is likely in a lot of trouble.  And then of course, Miami’s run game and Mark Fletcher need a big game to keep the ball out of Fernando Mendoza’s hands.   If they can do this Miami absolutely can cover and win this game.

But, how can anyone and especially an Indiana graduate bet against Cignetti and the Hoosiers at this point.  Miami is going to make this a tough game with their excellent offensive and defensive lines. 

But in the end, Fernando Mendoza will be the difference.  He will make more big plays for IU when they are there, then Carson Beck will and his running ability will also be a big difference maker especially up the middle if Miami is getting a great pass rush.

Indiana 27 Miami 17.   For Big Jeff Nirvana.

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