Each week Big Jeff will give my picks for all Big Ten conference games and the number one game I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” pick of the week. Football is all about two things – Matchups and Motivation – and that is how I decide my picks. Vegas is great at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise. But let’s leave the emotion out of the picks and see how we do.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Picks Results
- Last Week: 3-1 vs Spread; 1-0 in “Lock City” pick of week
- Year-to-Date: 3-2 vs Spread; 1-1 in “Lock City” pick of week
Here are the candidates: (Odds by ESPNBET on 9/25/24)
College Football Schedule – 2024 Big Ten Season – ESPN
Week 5 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week
Big Ten Conference Games (8)
- RUTGERS -2.5 vs Washington
- #12 MICHIGAN -9.5 vs Minnesota
- INDIANA -7 vs Maryland
- Nebraska -10 at PURDUE
- #13 USC -15.5 vs Wisconsin
- #3 Ohio State -24 vs MICHIGAN STATE
- #9 PENN STATE -19 vs #19 Illinois
- #8 Oregon -25.5 at UCLA
RUTGERS -2.5 vs Washington
This is a great matchup on Friday night in Piscataway. For Rutgers, this is another key game in their potential to win 9 or 10 games this season given their easy Big Ten schedule that avoids heavyweights Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan who Rutgers has gone 1-29 against the past 10 years.
For Washington it means new coach Jedd Fisch can continue to show the program is not going to drop much with Kalen Deboer leaving for Alabama.
These teams matchup really well. Rutgers has the 4th best offense in the Big Ten in yards/game and is rated #1 in the Big Ten in rushing yards/game led by running back Kyle Monangai who has 457 yards on the season at 6.3 yards/rush putting him second in the Big Ten in rushing. Washington meanwhile is rated 3rd in the Big Ten in team defense giving up just 237 yards/game, though with a fairly easy schedule.
On the flip side, the Washington offense is somewhat middle of the pack rated 8th in the Big Ten in yards/game and 9th in rushing which I feel is a vital stat for Big Ten success. On defense, Rutgers ranks 10th in yards/game given up so again these two position units are very evenly matched.
Big Jeffs Call: Given how close these two teams look; I think the home field advantage and night game atmosphere is going to help provide the motivation Rutgers needs to pull out the win AND cover. Rutgers 24 Washington 21
#12 MICHIGAN -9.5 vs Minnesota
I was really surprised to see this spread that opened at -10.5 and is now at -9.5. I know Michigan right now is really one-dimensional and can’t throw the football with QB Alex Orgi leading the offense. Michigan ranks last in the Big Ten at 123 yards/game passing. Even wors than Iowa who is next to last. Sheesh. But Michigan still has many players who will be playing in the NFL so to me this spread is too low.
Frankly Minnesota is probably just as one-dimensional ranking second to last in the Big Ten at 117 yards/game. The passing attack is a little better ranking 12th in the Big Ten at 218 yards/game under new QB Max Brosmer who is getting a little better each week.
Overall, though, Minnesota is 14th in total offense so I just don’t see them scoring much against a stout Michigan defense that while rated 15th in the Big Ten in yards/game given up, those figures are skewed from playing the dynamic Texas offense and USC. To beat Michigan, you need to have a good offensive line and the skill players to challenge their secondary and the Gophers just don’t have that.
On the positive side for Minnesota, they do have the 4th rated Big Ten defense in yards/game given up but are just 13th in Big Ten in rushing yards/game given up. That is not good vs. Michigan’s run-based offense.
Big Jeff’s Call: The biggest risk is Michigan has a letdown after a close, emotional win over USC last week. But I can’t see the Gophers scoring enough and defending the Michigan running game to cover 9.5 points. Michigan 24 Minnesota 10.
INDIANA -7 vs Maryland
Curt Cignetti has Indiana rolling and the statistics for IU on both offense (3rd in Big Ten) and defense (2nd in Big Ten) are crazy good. But the schedule really has been crazy bad. The Hoosiers do have a great road win at UCLA 42-13 on their resume, but UCLA statistically looks among the worst teams in the Big Ten. I think we know the Hoosiers are good, but how good is still in question.
Meanwhile Maryland is their typical mixed bag with a bad home loss to Michigan State and a good road win vs. Virginia on their resume. This up and down nature has been a staple of Mike Locksley’s tenure now in his 7th year at Maryland.
On offense Maryland ranks 5th in yards/game with a strong passing game led by QB Billy Edwards Jr. who is 3rd in the Big Ten in pass efficiency according to Pro Football focus and wide receiver Tai Felton who is 3rd in the nation with 604 yards receiving.
This is a great quarterback matchup since Indiana is getting great play from new QB Kurtis Rourke who is rated #1 in the Big Ten in passing efficiency by Pro Football Focus and has 8 touchdowns with 0 interceptions.
Big Jeff’s Call: I think we will learn more about Indiana in this one than Maryland. How good are the Hoosiers? I think they are pretty damn good and as long as Cignetti keeps them from taking the “rat poison” of listening to how good they are – I will take IU to cover. Indiana 31 Maryland 21.
Nebraska -10 at PURDUE
Nebraska is coming off a very disappointing one score, OT loss at home to Illinois. Purdue is coming off an all-time worse loss to Notre Dame and a 17-point road loss to Oregon State. Purdue can’t have any confidence and Nebraska is likely angry. So, I give the Huskers a big mental/motivation edge here.
Nebraska ranks 9th in the Big Ten at 402 yards/game and is more pass oriented behind 5-star freshman QB Dylan Raiola ranking 8th in the Big Ten in passing yards/game but just 14th in rushing. Defensively the Huskers are 8th in the Big Ten giving up 287 yards/game, and rated 13th in pass defense and 8th in run defense.
Purdue is much stronger on offense than defense. On offense Purdue is 13th in the Big Ten at 355 yards/game driven mostly by a run offense rated 7th in the Big Ten behind RB Devin Mockobee’s 276 yards rushing at an efficient 7.7 yards/carry. It’s surprising the passing attack is only rated 15th in the Big Ten since the Boilers have experienced QB Hudson Card who is completing just 63.6% of his passes with no standout wide receiver to throw to.
Big Jeff’s Call: This comes down to what is the mental state of Purdue right now? Will they come out like their backs are against the wall or uninspired? I am going to put my trust in Matt Rhule who is clearly the better coach to have his Husker team bounce back and barely cover. Nebraska 28 Purdue 17.
#13 USC -15.5 vs Wisconsin
USC is coming off a disappointing loss and blown 4th quarter lead at Michigan. USC’s defense is clearly improved, but I still have questions on how good they will stand up vs. the run given Michigan just beat them with a completely one-dimensional offense. This is very relevant to this game since I expect Wisconsin to really try to re-establish their run game vs USC.
Let’s compare the teams. On offense USC rates 7th in yards/game in the Big Ten led by Miller Moss and their passing attack which rates first in the Big Ten at 318 yards/game. USC is only 15th in rushing though.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s defense is 12th in yards/game given up but that is skewed when you play a team like Alabama. The Badger pass defense ranks 10th in the Big Ten in yards/game given up and this is a major concern as USC has the type of skill players that Wisconsin could not stop vs. Alabama.
Defensively USC is rated just 14th in the Big Ten giving up 311 yards/game and 17th in rushing defense after getting run over by Michigan. The Silver Lining is the stats vs. Michigan would look much better if you take away the big runs they gave up of 53, 41 and 63 yards.
Can Wisconsin’s run offense take advantage of this? Their total offense ranks just 14th in the Big Ten and 8th in rushing at 172 yards/game but the Badgers are averaging only 4.0 yards/carry. For the Badgers to pull off the upset, they must be much more efficient running the ball.
Big Jeff’s Call: This will come down to can the Badgers run the ball on the Trojans and keep the ball away from their Big Ten leading pass offense. I am guessing they will run well enough to cover a huge 15.5 point spread. USC 31 Wisconsin 17.
#3 Ohio State -24 vs MICHIGAN STATE
The Buckeyes finally take to the road to face stiffer competition in Michigan State Saturday night on Peacock. Similar to Indiana, the Buckeyes stats are mostly ridiculous piled up vs. mostly poor competition.
On offense they are 1st in the Big Ten and 5th in the nation at 552 yards/game. They are second in the Big Ten in passing and 4th in rushing but are gaining 7.0 yards/carry led by Quinshon Judkins 336 yards and 9.3 yards/carry. It’s similar on defense where the Buckeyes rank 2nd nationally and 1st in the Big Ten giving up 180 yards/game. They are equally stingy against both the run and the pass rating 2nd in the Big Ten in both.
Michigan State has a new quarterback in Aidan Chiles who has thrown 7 interceptions in 4 games and is completing just 54% of his passes. On offense the Spartans are mostly middle of the pack in the Big Ten across the board and rank 9th overall at 401 yards/game. Defense is the strength for the Spartans as they rate 6th at 255 yards/game given up and are about equally as strong vs the run and the pass.
Big Jeff’s Call: This one comes down to Aidan Chiles. If he has more than one turnover, this is likely a Buckeyes blowout and they cover since their offense is just too explosive. If he plays well, Sparty and their good defense can keep this one fairly close. I am betting on the former. Ohio State 42 Michigan State 17
#9 PENN STATE -19 vs #19 Illinois
This Penn State line of giving 19 points to #19 Illinois really surprised me. Illinois is 4-0 but might be due for a letdown game after their big overtime road win last week at Nebraska. Penn State meanwhile is feeling great about their offense led by new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki whose task was to tap into the potential of second-year quarterback Drew Allar, and so far, the results have been great.
On offense, Penn State is 2nd in the Big Ten at 538 yards/game, only behind Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are 7th in passing yards/game and 2nd in rushing. Key has been the development of Allar and his ability to create more explosive plays, where he leads all Big Ten starting quarterbacks at 12.6 yards per pass attempt. Plus, he is taking care of the ball with 8 touchdowns and just 1 interception.
On defense, Penn State has their typical tough defense ranking 4th in the Big Ten with 229 yards/game and rank well vs the pass and the run.
For Illinois, the key has also been their quarterback Luke Altmyer who has raised his game this year and is rated the 6th most efficient quarterback in the Big Ten and has 10 touchdowns with 0 interceptions.
Though Illinois rates just 11th in the Big Ten in passing yards/game, it’s been a winning formula complimented by a good running game (rated 10th) and solid defense ranking 9th in the Big Ten giving up 294 yards/game. While those stats are not overly impressive for a Top 25 team, they are +7 in turnover margin so the Illini are playing low mistake football.
Big Jeff’s Call: This could be an Illinois let down game. But, I am going to put faith in Bret Bielema and the Illini and say this is just too many points for the Fighting Bret’s not to cover. I assume their defense will hold up enough to cover the 19 and call it my LOCK CITY GAME OF THE WEEK. Penn State 31 Illinois 17.
#8 Oregon -25.5 at UCLA
The final game with a late kick at the Rose Bowl is an interesting Pac 12 matchup …. oh wait. This is “Big Ten after dark” I guess at the Rose Bowl. Oregon wants to put together their second straight dominant game and UCLA is just looking to play competitive on both sides of the ball and hope for the upset.
UCLA showed some promise last week at LSU tied 17-17 at the half before ultimately falling 34-17. UCLA is rated last in the Big Ten in offense with 292 yards/game and are dead last as well in rushing YPG and 10th in passing YPG. This is a dramatic change from last year where UCLA led the Pac 12 in rushing yards/game. UCLA needs to find a way to run effectively to be successful in the Big Ten.
Oregon is 6th in the Big Ten on offense at 462 yards/game. 3rd in passing and 13th in rushing. Under new QB Dillon Gabriel, who is rated 5th in the Big Ten in efficiency, the Ducks offense is in good shape. On defense though, Oregon has been a disappointing 11th in the Big Ten at 298 yards/game allowed.
Big Jeff’s Call: I expect Oregon to continue to look better each week. UCLA will be able to move the ball passing through QB Ethan Garbers and their defense is good enough to keep the Ducks relatively in check to cover this one. Oregon 41 UCLA 20.
Week 4 Big Ten Football Top Storylines – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)
