Each week Big Jeff will give my picks for all Big Ten conference games and the number one game I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” pick of the week. Football is all about two things – Matchups and Motivation – and that is how I decide my picks. Vegas is great at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise but let’s get to it starting with a quick review of last week.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Picks Results (after Week 5)
- Last Week: 6-2 vs Spread; 1-0 in “Lock City” pick of week
- Year-to-Date: 9-4 vs Spread; 2-1 in “Lock City” pick of week
Wow. Going 6-2 vs the spread last week. And 9-4 for the year. Pretty amazing. I am not foolish enough to believe I am a genius and can keep this up. Winning 55% of the time vs. Vegas is doing well. But for now, I will bask in the glory.
Here are the candidates for Week 6: (Odds by ESPNBET on 10/2/24)
Big Jeff’s Week 5 Big Ten Football Power Rankings – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)
College Football Schedule – 2024 Big Ten Season – ESPN
Week 6 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week
Big Ten Conference Games (8)
- #6 OREGON -23 vs. Michigan State (Friday Night)
- #7 PENN STATE -27.5 vs. UCLA
- WISCONSIN -14 vs. Purdue
- #3 OHIO STATE -20.5 vs. Iowa
- #23 Indiana -14 at NORTHWESTERN
- NEBRASKA -7 vs. Rutgers
- WASHINGTON -2.5 vs. #10 Michigan
- #11 USC -8 at MINNESOTA
#6 OREGON -23 vs. Michigan State (Friday Night)
Oregon is playing better each week and their early season close 37-34 win over Boise State continues to look better and better as the Broncos are playing well and are 3-1. A key question in this one is tied to motivation. Will Oregon be peaking ahead to the highly anticipated October 12 home showdown vs #3 Ohio State and not totally focused on the Spartans?
Michigan State is 3-2 and coming off two straight losses to Boston College by four and a 38-7 loss to Ohio State at home last week. I actually was overall impressed with Michigan State vs. the Buckeyes that saw them play really well in the first half but were undone by 3 turnovers. I have them rated #12 in my Big Ten power ratings.
Michigan State’s defense has been especially impressive and rank 9th in the Big Ten at 300 yards/game given up and are 11th in both passing and rushing defense so are solid on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Spartans are 11th in the Big Ten at 370 yards/game and are 9th in passing at 237 yards/game but just 15th in rushing defense. The biggest issue though has been first-year quarterback Aidan Chiles turnovers where he has 8 interceptions in only 5 games, which is just too much despite his overall promising play.
Meanwhile, Oregon is led by experienced quarterback Dillon Gabriel who is playing very efficiently with an 81.5% completion rate and 9 TDs and only 1 interception. Gabriel is the main reason the Ducks rank 6th in the Big Ten in offense at 454 yards/game including 5th in the Big Ten in passing at 302 yards/game. Jordan James leads a solid rushing attack with 386 yards for the year at 6.0 yards/carry but the Ducks only average 4.3 yards/carry so the pass attack is clearly their strength.
Big Jeffs Call: I think Jonathan Smith was a great hire for MSU. They already have a good road win vs. Maryland, have a solid defense and a talented quarterback. Oregon can’t help but be thinking ahead to Ohio State and I don’t think they will overwhelm the Spartan defense. QB Aidan Chiles will only have one turnover and the Spartans cover. Oregon 34 Michigan State 17.
#7 PENN STATE -27.5 vs. UCLA
This will be UCLAs first road game in the Big Ten, but they do have the benefit of already playing at LSU in what will be a similar tough atmosphere at Penn State. The game is a 12 am kickoff, which is 9 am Pacific time for the Bruins, so will they be a little sleepy? At least they will get a more placid crowd that early in Happy Valley.
UCLA is just flat out struggling in DeShaun Fosters first year as coach. They are 1-3 with all losses in double digits at an average 22-point deficit per game. On offense they are dead last in the Big Ten at 262 yards/game and last by far last in rushing at 57 yards/game. This is amazing given they led the Pac 12 in rushing last year and have similar personnel. On defense things aren’t much better as UCLA is second to last in the Big Ten at 398 yards/game given up.
Penn State is coming off a dominant statistical performance in a 21-7 win over Illinois, outgaining the Illini 374 to 219 yards including giving up just 34 yards rushing. Penn State has played really well this season and is 3rd in the Big Ten with 497 yards/game and 2nd in defense at 227 yards/game given up.
Most important for the Nittany Lions is they wanted a more explosive offense to take advantage of talented 2nd year starting quarterback Drew Allar under new Offensive Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki and it is working. Allar leads all Big Ten quarterbacks at 10.9 yards/pass attempt after last year ranking 5th at 6.8 yards/attempt. This is huge improvement, and he has been efficient as well completing 71% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Big Jeff’s Call: Penn State is in a good place and has to be feeling great overall. UCLA is in a bad spot so their mental state is key to this game. Can this new UCLA coaching staff keep the Bruins players motivated and focused on getting better? I am betting they can enabling the Bruins to play well enough to cover the 27.5. Penn State 34 UCLA 10.
WISCONSIN -14 vs. Purdue
Wisconsin is searching for an identity in year 2 under coach Luke Fickell. They are 2-2 and coming off a 38-21 loss at USC in which they led 21-10 at the half but then gave up 28 unanswered points in the second half. Badger fans are confused and surprised that their team is struggling so much given Fickell was considered by many as the best hire in the 2022 coaching hiring cycle.
A couple data points to show this. The Badgers calling card has been a great running game backed by a tough defense. Wisconsin rates just 12th in the Big Ten in rushing at 156 yards/game and only average 4.07 yards/carry. Overall, their offense is third to last (16th) in the Big Ten at 337 yards/game. On defense Wisconsin is 3rd to last also in the Big Ten in yards given up at 344 yards/game.
This is not the Wisconsin Badgers we are used to seeing and Fickell and his staff need to figure it out. I know they have had injuries to their quarterbacks including Tyler Van Dyke this year, but other teams have found ways to overcome injuries and still be successful.
Purdue meanwhile, in Ryan Walters second year as coach, is struggling more than any Big Ten team other than possibly UCLA. I am not sure if Purdue does anything well at this point ranking 15th in the Big Ten in offense at 322 yards/game and last in defense at 399 yards/game given up. In their most recent 28-10 loss to Nebraska, they had 13 penalties for 165 yards showing they are playing undisciplined football as well.
Boilermaker quarterback Hudson Card was supposed to be a strength of this team, but he is 14th in the Big Ten amongst starters at 157 yards/game and is averaging just 6.9 yards/pass which rates 14th as well. Looking for a spark, this week Walters fired Offensive Coordinator Graham Harrell replacing him with offensive analyst Jason Simmons.
Big Jeff’s Call: A matchup of two teams who are both very disappointed in their starts. I have more confidence in Luke Fickell and his staff than Ryan Walters to improve their squads as this season progresses. Plus, Wisconsin will get the huge boost from playing at home behind their great fans. I don’t think Purdue will do much against the Badger defense, allowing the Wisconsin offense to have the ball enough to get the offense rolling much better to barely cover the spread. Wisconsin 28 Purdue 13.
#3 OHIO STATE -20.5 vs. Iowa
Similar to Oregon, there is danger here for Ohio State to be looking ahead to next week when they visit Oregon in a game that has been circled on the calendar for a long time. Statistically the Buckeyes have been dominant, not just in the Big Ten where they have both the top-rated offense and defense but nationally as well. On offense Ohio State is 5th nationally at 535 yards/game and on defense are 2nd in the nation giving up just 197 yards/game. The defense is first in the nation at 6.8 points/game given up.
Though the schedule has been weak, the efficiency is still impressive as has the individual performances. For example, running backs TreVeyon Hendersonand Quinshon Judkins are averaging 8.9 and 8.3 yards/carry respectively. And of course, freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is looking to set freshman records for OSU with 364 yards and 5 touchdowns along with numerous highlight plays.
For Iowa, they are exactly what you would expect from a good Hawkeye team. On offense, overall they are middle of the pack in the Big Ten falling 10th in total offense at 398 yards/game but second in the Big Ten in rushing at 250 yards/game led by Kaleb Johnson who is second in the nation in rushing and averages 8.4 yards/carry.
On defense, the Hawkeyes are 7th in the Big Ten giving up 273 yards/game. This is not quite as good as usual, but they are giving up just 13.8 points/game. They are especially stingy in run defense where they are second in the Big Ten. A key matchup then will be Iowa’s stingy run defense keeping Ohio States talented running back duo in check so they can make the Buckeyes more one-dimensional.
Big Jeff’s Call: This is a tough one. Will Ohio State be looking ahead some to Oregon? Iowa must have success running the ball and must get a few good plays downfield in the passing game to keep the Buckeyes defense honest. On the other side, Ohio State is going to have some big plays from the passing game but Iowa needs to keep the OSU rushing attack in check or this game won’t be close. I will call the Buckeyes to barely cover. Ohio State 34 Iowa 13
#23 Indiana -14 at NORTHWESTERN
Indiana has played at a high level all 5 games to go 5-0 for the first time since 1967. Each game has been a double-digit win. They are due for a clunker. In week 5 against Maryland they came out like it was going to be their first bad game but being at home they were able to right the ship and win 42-28. One can’t be any more impressed with what Curt Cignetti has done at IU and he is the leader for not just the Big Ten coach of the year but possibly national coach of the year.
Statistically Indiana ranks up with the best in the country including #3 Ohio State. In the Big Ten they rate second in the Big Ten in offense at 513 yards/game which is just behind Ohio State and rate 9th nationally behind Texas. On defense IU is 4th in the Big Ten giving up 240 yards/game which also ranks 8th nationally.
Northwestern was off last week and had to be focused on how to get better production from their offense which is ranked second to last (17th) in the Big Ten with 295 yards/game. They are third to last (16th) in passing at 159 yards/game and 14th in rushing at 136 yards/game and just 4.18 yards/carry.
The Wildcats have major quarterback issues and made a change after game two because Mike Wright was completing just 58% of his passes with 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. Jack Lausch has taken over and in his 2 starts is completing just 48% of his passes with 2 TDs and 2 interceptions. The Cats rank last in the Big Ten in passing yards/attempt at 5.1.
At least defensively Northwestern is solid ranking 9th or middle of the pack in the Big Ten giving up 352 yards/game and are best against the run rating 5th in the Big Ten in yards given up so that provides hope.
Big Jeff’s Call: Indiana is due for a game where they struggle, and I am guessing that will happen this week on the road game at Northwestern in their unique, temporary stadium on the lake. But, I think the Wildcats are so offensively challenged that Indiana with their balanced offense still finds a way to win the game despite not covering the 14 points. Indiana 24 Northwestern 17.
NEBRASKA -7 vs. Rutgers
Rutgers found a way to just beat Washington at home last week 21-18 despite getting outgained 521 to 299 to move to 4-0. For the season, they are doing things that produce wins like vs. Washington having no turnovers, going 7-13 on third downs. producing just 4 penalties for 31 yards and generating 5.6 yards/carry.
Statistically Rutgers is more middle of the pack ranking 8th in offense at 428 yards/game and surprisingly on defense are just 14th in the Big Ten giving up 352 yards/game. This 4-0 start has Rutgers thinking of a dream season given their schedule where they are hoping for 9 or 10 wins.
Last week, Nebraska found themselves tied at 0-0 at the half against Northwestern but then pulled away in the second half winning 28-10 behind another steady game from star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola who went 17-27 for 258 yards and a touchdown. Nebraska is 9th in the Big Ten in offense at 405 yards/game, led by their passing attack which ranks 7th in the Big Ten at 261 yards/game.
Defensively Nebraska is solid as well ranking 8th in the Big Ten giving up 274 yards/game. At 4-1, Nebraska is in a great position to break their bowl-less streak that goes back to the 2016 season (8 years).
Big Jeff’s Call: These two teams are statistically very close. Maybe the only big difference is Rutgers relies much more on the run and Nebraska relies on the pass. When teams are close like this it comes down to turnovers, who has the better defense, and who runs the ball better.
Nebraska has the better defense, Rutgers runs the ball better and given Nebraska’s reliance on the pass, they are more likely to have turnovers. So, I like Rutgers to cover the 7 points but Nebraska to pull out the win. Nebraska 21 Rutgers 17.
WASHINGTON -2.5 vs. #10 Michigan
This is a rematch of the national title game but doesn’t really feel like it at all. I think Washington is #1 on the list of teams in the Big Ten who are better than their record and I currently have them #11 in my Big Ten power ratings.
Big Jeff’s Week 5 Big Ten Football Power Rankings – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)
This past week they somehow found a way to lose to Rutgers despite: (1) outgaining Rutgers 521 to 299 (2) Piling up 207 yards at 7.1 yards/carry with star running back Jonah Coleman gaining 148 on 16 carries (3) quarterback Will Rogers going an efficient 26-36 for 306 yards, 2 touchdowns and no turnovers (4) no overall turnovers for the game.
Going 2-12 on third down and missing 3 field goals certainly didn’t help but statistically this Washington team is damn good and are strong candidates to have a great second half of the year. All the ingredients are there. They have a good and veteran QB in Will Rogers, a stud running back in Coleman averaging 7.2 yards game, and a stingy defense.
Overall, on offense the Huskies rank 4th in the Big Ten at 469 yards/game and on defense rank 5th giving up just 250 yards/game. A concern against Michigan’s strong run game though, is Washington ranks just 12th in rushing defense giving up 122 yards/game.
On the Michigan side, even though it has looked ugly you have to give first year coach Sherrone Moore credit for finding ways to win and having Michigan at 4-1. This week they escaped Minnesota with a 27-24 win with the help of a reversed call on an on-side kick recovery by the Gophers. They were outgained 296 to 241 by Minnesota and despite 155 rush yards averaged just 3.6 yards/carry.
On defense, Michigan is surprisingly only rated 13th in the Big Ten giving up 318 yards/game, including 16th in pass defense giving up 249 yards/game but are very stingy against the run ranking 3rd in the Big Ten at 69 yards/game given up.
And these stats are not skewed because they played the high-flying Texas offense. Extracting the Texas game, Michigan still ranks only 9th overall in Big Ten defense in yards given up and stay at 16th ranked in the Big Ten in passing yards/game allowed. The defense is still really good, but I feel they are not elite like it was last year.
Big Jeff’s Call: This will be the first road trip for Michigan this year, and first road start for QB Alex Orgi. Washington is well balanced on offense and is going to have some success vs. the Wolverines especially in the second half when Michigan’s lack of great depth comes into play. Michigan needs Orgi to produce some bigger plays passing the ball to score enough to win, but I don’t think he can do it. I will take the Huskies to win and cover. Washington 24 Michigan 17.
#11 USC -8 at MINNESOTA
USC may have saved their season last week vs. Wisconsin coming back from an 11-point halftime deficit to score 28 unanswered points to win 38-21. The Trojan defense continues to show they are much better and tougher than prior years under new Defensive Coordinator D’Anton Lynn as they held Wisconsin to just 2-10 on third down and 286 total yards.
On the other side, Minnesota is in a strange spot since they traditionally are strong running the ball but weak at passing. They brought in experienced New Hampshire quarterback Max Brosmer from the transfer portal to create a more effective pass game, which has happened, but now the run game is nowhere to be found.
Last year Minnesota was 11th of 14 Big Ten teams in passing yards at 143/game and this year with Brosmer they are up to 226 yards/game good for 10th of 18 Big Ten teams. But the run game has dramatically fallen off and is second to last in the Big Ten at 101 yards/game, while last year they were 7th in the Big Ten and averaged 158 yards/game.
The good news is defensively the Gophers rank third in the Big Ten giving up just 227 yards/game, including having the #1 rated Big Ten passing defense giving up just 97 yards/game. This will be very important vs. USCs strong passing offense that is #1 in the Big Ten at 316 yards/game under QB Miller Moss, who is rated the 3rd most efficient QB in the Big Ten according to Pro Football Focus and has 8 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions.
Overall USC is 5th in the Big Ten in offense at 460 yards/game and a respectable 11th in defense at 305 yards/game. A Minnesota home loss here would make them 2-4 and 0-3 in conference and would jeopardize their chances to make a bowl game. The rest of the way they have 4 of 6 games on the road so this is close to a “must win” for the Gophers.
Big Jeff’s Call: Strength vs Strength. The Big Ten #1 rated USC passing attack against the #1 rated Minnesota pass defense. That’s the first key factor and second is can Minnesota get that disappointing run game going. I think Minnesota’s pass defense stats are skewed from playing week passing teams Iowa and Michigan and it will be hard to stop USC under expected nice weather in Minneapolis. Also, the Gophers will struggle to score vs. an improved USC defense. A late score allows USC to cover. USC 31 Minnesota 21.
Week 5 Big Ten Football Top Storylines – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)
