Big Jeff's Week 5 Big Ten Football Power Rankings

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Each week Big Jeff will give his take on the Big Ten football power rankings. The ratings will be a combination of year-to-date game performance and my expectations of how much each team can and will improve during the year. If one team is ranked over another it generally means I feel on a neutral field the higher ranked team would win.

Week 5 Big Ten Football Power Rankings

Note: The teams rank change is in parenthesis.

Ohio State (4-0; Same)– After a slow start the #3 AP ranked Buckeyes won at Michigan State 38-7 in their first real test of the year. Penn State and Oregon both have more impressive wins, but Ohio State has dominated all their opponents with little difficulty securing their number one rank with me.
Penn State (4-0; Same) – In the only matchup of Top 25 Big Ten teams, Penn State won the line of scrimmage over Illinois winning 21-7 in Happy Valley. This one could have been worse except for two PSU missed FGs and more conservative offensive play calling that saw PSU run 44 times to just 21 pass attempts. I put Penn State a little higher than Oregon since they have been more consistent.
Oregon (4-0; Same) – After an off week, #6 Oregon easily dispatched struggling UCLA in the Rose Bowl 34-13. The Ducks dominated the stats with 431 yards to UCLA’s 172 and they seem to be getting better week to week leading up to the big October 12 showdown with Ohio State.
Indiana (5-0; +3) – Indiana and Curt Cignetti are one of the biggest stories in all of college football and are 5-0 for the first time since 1967 (57 years!) after beating Maryland 42-28 at home overcoming 3 first half turnovers. IU is now ranked #23 in the AP poll. Based on their consistent, dominant performances with all double-digit wins including and two conference wins, I have to rank them over both Michigan and USC who have had several half’s of pretty bad football.
Michigan (4-1; -1) – On one hand it’s impressive #10 Michigan continues to find ways to win, but they also are playing with fire in these close games. This week it looked like a blowout vs. Minnesota as they were up 21-3 at the half only to see the Gophers come storming back and they needed a botched ref’s call negating a late on-side kick recovery with 1:37 left to escape 27-24. If you ignore the uniforms, I have no doubt Indiana would be higher ranked in the AP poll right now.
USC (3-1; -1) – the #11 Trojans were down 21-10 at the half to Wisconsin and then scored 28 unanswered second half points to win 38-21. The defense continues to show they have improved from last year and matched Wisconsin’s physicality which was impressive. I need to see USC put a full four quarters together which is why I dropped them 1 spot with Indiana moving up.
Illinois (4-1; -1) – The Illini lost for the first time to Penn State 21-7. After a huge win on the road vs. Nebraska the prior week, it was going to be hard to do it 2 weeks in a row, so I don’t penalize the Illini for that. My concern for Illinois going forward though is their inability to run the ball where they rank third to last in the Big Ten with 132 yards/game at just 3.8 yards/carry. That needs to get better for success in the Big Ten.
Iowa (3-1; same) – Iowa was off this week and stay in the same spot. We will learn how much progress this Iowa offense has made when they play Ohio State in the Horseshoe this Saturday.
Rutgers (4-0; same) – Rutgers found a way to win over Washington 21-18 at home despite getting outgained 521 to 299. This shows Rutgers believes and knows how to win which reflects good coaching. Rutgers is hard-nosed and tough with a really good running game under running backs Kyle Monangai and Samuel Brown. On the downside, I am not a strong believer in QB Athan Kaliakmanis who threw for 115 yards in this one. He does rank 8th in the Big Ten by Pro Football Focus in QB efficiency which is solid and will win many games, but I just think his ceiling is more limited.
Nebraska (4-1; same) – The Huskers were 0-0 at the half vs. a terrible Purdue team. They pulled away in the second half to win 28-10 with a balanced attack and QB Dylan Raiola looking good again throwing for 257 yards and a touchdown. 11 penalties for 94 yards is a concern. Next up is 4-0 Rutgers at home which is an important game and one the Huskers have typically lost the last few years.
Washington (3-2; same) – As outlined above, Washington statistically dominated Rutgers in yardage and really impressed me in that game despite losing 21-18. Washington fans have to be frustrated in the coaching staff, since they could easily be 5-0, but I feel really positive that the Huskies should have some good wins coming including a huge opportunity vs. #10 Michigan at home this week.
Michigan State (3-2; same) – Despite a 38-7 loss to the Buckeyes, I was actually impressed with the Spartans. They are playing hard, seem to be well coached, and their defense in particular is a strength. The issue is with quarterback Aidan Chiles starting in his first year, they are turning the ball over way too often losing the turnover battle 3-1 to the Buckeyes. Chiles has 8 interceptions in 5 games.
Maryland (3-2; same) – Another really disappointing Big Ten loss for Maryland as they moved to 0-2 in the Big Ten with a 42-28 loss to Indiana. It was a missed opportunity as the Hoosiers had three first half turnovers but amazingly the Terps did not even get a single first down from each of them. If you win the turnover battle 4-0 you are supposed to win the game. Maryland has a week off before a now “must win” game vs. Northwestern.
Minnesota (2-3; same) – Credit to the Gophers for storming back from a 21-3 deficit at Michigan to lose just 27-24 and if not for a poor officials call taking away an on-side kick they may have taken this game into overtime or better. On the plus side, the Gophers outgained the Wolverines 296 to 241, but the issue is they only rushed for 38 yards and are 2nd to last in the Big Ten in rushing at 101 yards/game. This is unusual for Minnesota and must be improved to win in the back half of their schedule. It doesn’t get any easier as they visit USC this week.
Wisconsin (2-2; same) – For one half it looked like Luke Fickell was going to get his first signature win at Wisconsin as they were up 21-10 at the half vs USC. But after a muffed punt return early in the third quarter it was all USC as they got outscored 28-0 in the second half to lose 38-21 in a very deflating defeat. Once again, the Badger running game did not get on track with just 106 yards at 4.2 yards/carry. The Badgers goal now is probably just to make a bowl game and have Purdue this week to get back on track.
UCLA (1-3; same) – The Bruins struggles continued after losing 34-13 to Oregon at home. Including the Indiana loss they have been outscored 76 to 26 in their two Big Ten games at home. UCLA is lost offensively ranking last in the Big Ten with 262 yards/game and dead last in rushing at 57 yards/game after leading the Pac 12 last year. The schedule has not been easy and continues this week as they play at #7 Penn State.
Northwestern (2-2; same) – The Wildcats had an off week to try to get their 2nd last in the Big Ten offense revved up. They play a hot #23 ranked Indiana this week who are 5-0 and won every game by double digits.
Purdue (1-3; same) – things are not good in West Lafayette for second year coach Ryan Walters. After a 28-10 loss to Nebraska, earlier this week he fired Offensive Coordinator Graham Harrell replacing him with offensive analyst Jason Simmons who was currently on staff. The Boilermakers are searching for answers as they go on the road to face Wisconsin this week.