Each week Big Jeff will give my picks for all Big Ten conference games and the number one game I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” pick of the week. Football is all about two things – Matchups and Motivation – and that is how I decide my picks. Vegas is great at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise but let’s get to it starting with a quick review of last week.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Picks Results (after Week 6)
- Last Week: 5-2-1 vs Spread; Oops – I forgot to call out a lock city pick this week.
- Year-to-Date: 14-6-1 vs Spread; 2-1 in “Lock City” pick of week
Another great week going 5-2-1. That is two weeks in a row of nailing most of my picks. It’s hard to beat Vegas like this but I will try to keep this streak going. And Ohio State at Oregon week is finally here!
Here are the candidates for Week 6: (Odds by ESPNBET on 10/9/24)
Big Jeff’s Week 6 Big Ten Football Power Rankings – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)
College Football Schedule – 2024 Big Ten Season – ESPN
Week 7 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week
Big Ten Conference Games (7)
- MARYLAND -10.5 vs. Northwestern (Friday Night) – The Pick: Maryland
- IOWA -2.5 vs. Washington – The Pick: Washington (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week)
- RUTGERS -2.5 vs. Wisconsin – The Pick: Wisconsin
- #4 Penn State -5.5 vs. USC – The Pick: Penn State
- #23 ILLINOIS -19.5 vs. Purdue – The Pick: Purdue
- #2 Ohio State -3 vs #3 OREGON – The Pick: Ohio State
- Minnesota -5.5 vs. UCLA – The Pick: UCLA
MARYLAND -10.5 vs. Northwestern (Friday Night)
With Maryland coming off a bye in this game after a disappointing road loss at Indiana, I think this game will say a lot about where this program is going under Mike Locksley who is 32-35 at the school. He has won three consecutive bowl games but has not had any signature wins in his tenure and had some perplexing losses. And he no longer is in the brutal Big Ten East and in fact this year’s schedule only has two current Top 25 teams on the slate.
These two teams are very different, and it shows most on the offensive side of the ball. Maryland ranks 6th in the Big Ten at 451 yards/game and 5th in points at 33.4/game. Its hallmark is an efficient passing attack led by quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. who has the Terps 2nd in the Big Ten at 304 yards/game with 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Meanwhile Northwestern’s offense rates 16th in the Big Ten at 303 yards/game, which is 148 yards less than Maryland, and averages 18.6 points/game tied for 2nd to last with abysmal Purdue. The main culprit is the weak passing game rating 15th (fourth to last) at 175 yards/game, the opposite of the Terps strength.
On defense overall both teams are very poor as Northwestern and Maryland rank 15th and 16th respectively in the Big Ten for yards/game given up. For points given up Northwestern ranks better at 12th at 20.8 points/game and Maryland is 14th at 21.8 points/game.
All this says Northwestern is not good on either side of the ball and at least Maryland has a very good offense behind that strong passing game. And the really bad news for Northwestern is their pass defense is bad ranking 15th and giving up 254 yards/game.
Big Jeffs Call: This is a bad matchup for Northwestern with their porous pass defense against Maryland’s prolific passing attack. The Cats are going to need either a positive turnover margin of two or more and/or Maryland to come out totally flat to win, let alone cover 10.5 points. Problem is Maryland is +11 in turnover margin. I like the Terps to cover in a needed win for Mike Locksley. Maryland 34 Northwestern 17.
IOWA -2.5 vs. Washington
This is pretty much the same old Iowa with on the plus side a better than normal star running back in Kaleb Johnson who leads the nation at 154 yards/game, but on the downside a really good defense but not as elite as in the past. In 2023, the Hawkeyes were first in the nation at fewest yards allowed per play of 3.9. This year Iowa ranks just 59th at 5.5 yards/play.
And very uncharacteristically Iowa is giving up explosive plays, giving up four 50-plus-yard plays through 4 FBS games vs giving up just two such plays across their 14 games last year. This is likely impacted by the loss of star cornerback Cooper DeJean who was a second round NFL pick.
Offensively it’s the same issues as quarterback Cade McNamara has struggled to generate big plays and be efficient, as the Hawkeyes are second to last in the Big Ten at a dismal 140 yards/game. Thankfully they do have the best Big Ten rushing attack behind Johnson that averages 223 yards/game.
For Washington, after the Rutgers loss in which they statistically dominated, I had stated the Huskies were my choice to have the strongest second half turnaround of any Big Ten team. A huge win over Michigan helped support that.
The Huskies are impressive in how well-rounded they are with a good defense (5th in Big Ten in yards given up), good running game (9th in yards/game) and passing game (3rd in yards/game) and third overall in Big Ten offense at 463 yards/game behind only Indiana and Ohio State.
They have an experienced quarterback in Will Rogers who is 5th in the Big Ten in passing efficiency according to Pro Football Focus and a dominant running back in Jonah Coleman who is fourth in the Big Ten at 6.7 yards/carry. Washington excels at big plays highlighted by RB Coleman who leads the FBS with 24 carries of more than 10 yards. This could be a trouble spot for the Iowa defense.
Big Jeff’s Call: Iowa is really tough at home but one-dimensional offenses are just too easy to defend. Washington is a complete team, explosive and could easily be unbeaten. The biggest risks here are Washington playing down after the emotional win over Michigan, and the early 11 am EST start which is 9 am west coast time. Because the Huskies have lost twice though, I think they will stay focused and outright win the game taking the 2.5 points. This is my LOCK CITY pick of the week. Washington 24 Iowa 17.
RUTGERS -2.5 vs. Wisconsin
The two teams come into the game from very different places. Rutgers (4-1) could not get anything going offensively and only scored a late TD at Nebraska to lose 14-7 for their first loss. Wisconsin got the get right game they were hoping for and then some in a 52-6 dismantling at home of Purdue.
Wisconsin built some confidence on offense as Braedyn Locke threw for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns (but did throw two picks) as the Badgers piled up 589 yards. They also rushed for 228 yards at 5.6 yards/carry. This is more like the offense Badger fans expected but it was Purdue who easily has the worst defense in the Big Ten.
Wisconsin is a middle of the pack team in the Big Ten on offense (ranking 9th in yards/game and also 9th in points at 27.6/game) and a surprising below average on defense (ranking 11th in yards/game and 16th at 22.6 point/game). The Purdue offensive explosion made the offensive stats look better, so I am not ready to say the Badgers are back on track under Fickell but this game is a big one since they face contests against Penn State, Iowa, Oregon and Nebraska over the following 5 weeks.
For Rutgers it had to be extremely disappointing to run for only 78 total yards against Nebraska at 2.4 yards/carry as lead running Kyle Monangai managed just 4.1/carry and was held under 100 yards. Rutgers formula is running the ball, playing good defense and controlling the clock but Nebraska was able to dictate the game.
I am not a big believer in either of these quarterbacks with Rutgers’ Athan Kaliakmanis rated 7th in the Big Ten in quarterback efficiency according to Pro Football Focus but only completes 56% of his passes. And Wisconsin’s Locke is rated 20th in efficiency of eligible quarterbacks (by PFF), though I do think he is better than that, Locke still only completes 55% of his passes with a 5/3 TD to INT ratio.
So, I think this game comes down to who will run the ball better and turnovers. Rutgers is 4th in the Big Ten in rushing at 206 yards/game and 4.97 per carry, while the Badgers are 7th at 170 yards/game and 4.38 per carry.
Big Jeff’s Call: This is a very tough matchup to call and would avoid placing real money on this one. Rutgers performance vs Nebraska scoring only 7 points is really concerning and they should have lost to Washington. If Wisky played like first half vs. USC I would easily take them here. I am going say Wisconsin runs the ball a little better, covers and wins outright in a rock fight game. Wisconsin 20 Rutgers 17.
#4 Penn State -5.5 vs. USC
For 5-0 Penn State, this is a game they need to win to show they are a deserving playoff team. For 3-2 USC, it’s a game they need to win to show they are a top Big Ten team since if not, they fall to 3-3 and look like a middle-of-the-pack team which is not what they are paying Lincoln Riley for, so the heat would be turned up on him.
Statistically Penn State has the 4th best offense in the Big Ten (@ 462 yards/game) and 2nd in defense (giving up 233/yards/game). USC is 7th in offense (@ 442 yards/game) and 10th in defense (@ 316 yards/game).
Penn State’s offensive strength is their rushing game, where they average 218 yards/game good for 3rd in the Big Ten behind star back Nicholas Singleton who is 4th in the conference at 7.7 yards carry and averages 102 yards/game. Kaytron Allen (5.0 yards/carry) is a strong second RB. USC is poor against the run ranking 2nd to last in the Big Ten giving up 159 yards/game and 4.9 yards/rush. This is a HUGE advantage for Penn State.
USC averages a very good 5.12 yards/carry yet they run the ball just 29 times/game which is 3rd least in the conference. They lead the Big Ten at 42 pass attempts/game, but only complete 64.3% of passes which is 11th best in conference. They average 6.9 yards/attempt which is only 13th in the Big Ten.
Hey Lincoln Riley. Run the damn football! It’s both obvious and perplexing that Riley is in love with throwing the ball and should be running a lot more. He is operating the offense like he still has Heisman Winner Caleb Williams under center, and it may have cost him the Michigan game but most certainly cost him the Minnesota game where he threw 38 times to 28 rushes at 6.2/carry. That type of stubbornness could cost him his job in the long run.
If USC continues to mostly throw the ball vs run, it would probably be OK with Penn State as they rank 4th in the Big Ten in pass defense giving up just 157 yards/game and have a very good secondary and elite pass rusher in Abdul Carter, and USC has struggled in pass blocking.
Big Jeff’s Call: I love Penn State to win the game but giving up 5.5 points is a lot. If Lincoln Riley breaks his stubbornness and runs the ball this game will be very tight and could come down to a field goal. If he continues his pass happy strategy PSU wins more easily. I lean to the latter and James Franklin gets a huge win in the Nits push for the playoffs. Penn State covers. Penn State 27 USC 20.
#23 ILLINOIS -19.5 vs. Purdue
This game comes down to the mental state of the Purdue Boilermakers who are 1-4 and in the basement of the Big Ten coming off a 52-6 blowout loss at Wisconsin. I felt they quit in the second half against the Badgers which is an ominous sign. If Purdue comes out flat vs. Illinois then it shows they have mostly quite and Ryan Walters is going to lose his job before the end of the year.
Illinois is 4-1 and ranked #23 coming off a bye after a tough road loss to Penn State 21-7. Head coach Bret Bielema has to feel good about where his team is right now.
Statistically Illinois offense is ranked just 13th in the Big Ten (@ 347 yards/game) and are only 14th in rushing yards/game. On defense Illinois is middle of the pack ranking 9th in the Big Ten (giving up 310/yards/game) and both their pass defense (9th) and run defense (13th) are unspectacular. Their stats don’t scream we are the #23 team in the country.
Purdue is 2nd to last on offense (@ 301 yards/game) and last in defense by a wide margin (giving up @ 437 yards/game). Their run defense is atrocious, dead last and giving up 239 yards/game where the next worst team (USC) is at 159 yards given up (80 yards/game difference). That is a death wish in the Big Ten. Purdue is “lucky” though that their terrible run defense is not a strength at all for the Illini.
Purdue actually runs the ball pretty well at 4.9 yards/carry led by running back Devin Mockobee’s 362 yards at 6.0 yards/carry. Reggie Love is a capable second back averaging 5.1/carry. Given their terrible defense, Purdue absolutely needs to run the ball more despite having veteran QB Hudson Card. It will shorten the game, and Illinois is not a high scoring team. It is their only hope in this game.
Big Jeff’s Call: Purdue is a hurting team so will they come out with a fire in their belly in this one? And will they run the ball like I am advocating? Illinois is feeling good and can they continue their good play? I am leery of Purdue’s mental state but 19.5 points is a lot and Illinois is not a high scoring team. I do think Ryan Walters will run the ball allowing Purdue to cover the points. Illinois 31 Purdue 17
#2 Ohio State -3 vs #3 OREGON
This is likely the game of the year in the Big Ten and the one of the Top 5 clashes from a national perspective. Both teams are 5-0 and it’s the first time this year all eyes will be on Ohio State given their weak schedule up to this point and similar to Oregon since they have yet to have a marquee game. The stakes are high but much less given the playoff field is now 12 and these teams are favored to play again in the Big Ten championship game.
Statistically Ohio State is off the charts ranking 2nd in the Big Ten and 9th in the nation in offense (@ 510 yards/game) and 1st in in defense for both the Big Ten and in the nation (giving up 202/yards/game) and give up just 73 yards/game in rushing good for 3rd in the nation.
Oregon is 5th in offense (@ 459 yards/game) and 6th in defense (@ 263 yards/game). Just like Ohio State, Oregon is pass oriented than Ohio State throwing for 294 yards/game (4th in Big Ten) and 164/game rushing behind rugged running back Jordan James who averages 6.3 yards/carry. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is super-efficient completing 78% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and 3 picks, two of which came last week vs Michigan State.
Ohio State is loaded with offensive stars including the best running back tandem in the country in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson who average 7.8 and 8.0 yards/carry respectively which ranks 5th and 3rd in the nation. QB Will Howard has 23 TDs and 3 picks and is rated 8th best in the nation for Pass Efficiency according to NCAA.com and has a host of star receivers to throw to including Emeka Egbuka and freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith. This will be a test of how good Will Howard is.
These two teams are very similar. They have star-laden talent across all positions, experienced and efficient quarterbacks, difference making skill players, strong and deep defensive lines, and offensive lines who are good and improving.
Big Jeff’s Call: Games like these between teams that have high-level and pretty equal talent typically come down to who wins in the trenches and turnovers. Despite both teams having really good passing attacks, I think the team that runs the ball better will win. I like Ohio State’s two headed RB monster in Henderson and Judkins with OC Chip Kelly calling the plays better than Oregon’s strong rushing attack. I call Ohio State to win and cover the 3 points. Ohio State 28 Oregon 24.
Minnesota -5.5 vs. UCLA
Minnesota comes in off a huge and emotional home win over USC. UCLA lost at Penn State 27-11 but really hung in there well with the Nittany Lions losing the yardage battle only 322 to 260. This shows they are still fighting hard for new coach DeShaun Foster, which is a good sign.
Statistically Minnesota ranks 14th in Big Ten offense (@ 333 yards/game) but 3rd in defense (giving up 251/yards/game). The Gophers surprisingly are 2nd to last in rushing offense but did run much better vs. USC last week, but pass the ball pretty well (11th) under QB Max Brosmer
UCLA is dead last in Big Ten offense (@ 262 yards/game) and also in run offense by far at just 62 yards/game. UCLA’s defense ranks second to last in the Big Ten (@ 383 yards/game given up), including last in the Big Ten in pass defense (@ 289 yards/game given up) while they are strong against the run 9th in the Big Ten.
It is an unknown if UCLA starter Ethan Garbers can play after missing the Penn State game. But his replacement Justyn Martin did mostly well going 22-30 for 161 yards, so I don’t think who plays will be a major deciding factor in this game.
These are the two worst rushing teams in the Big Ten but UCLA is significantly worse. A big worry is Gopher QB Max Brosmer having success against the Bruins Big Ten worst pass defense. Can UCLA have some success against the Gophers 3rd best in Big Ten defense?
Big Jeff’s Call: I like how UCLA is still playing hard under DeShaus Foster despite not getting wins. I think UCLA has a strong emotional edge here at home helped also by the Gophers traveling two times zones after their emotional win. UCLA covers but Minnesota wins in a low scoring game. Minnesota 20 UCLA 17.
Week 6 Big Ten Football Top Storylines – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)
