Each week Big Jeff will give my picks for all Big Ten conference games and the one I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” pick of the week. Football is all about two things – Matchups and Motivation (which includes the team’s mental state) – and that is the key criterial I use in deciding my picks. Vegas is great at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise but let’s get to it starting with a quick review of last week.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (after Week 7)
- Last Week: 3-4 vs Spread; Lost Lock City pick
- Year-to-Date: 17-10-1 vs Spread; 2-2 in “Lock City” picks of week
Week 7 Pick Summary
- MARYLAND -10.5 vs. Northwestern (Friday Night) – The Pick: Maryland LOST
- IOWA -2.5 vs. Washington – The Pick: Washington (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week) LOST
- RUTGERS -2.5 vs. Wisconsin – The Pick: Wisconsin WON
- #4 Penn State -5.5 vs. USC – The Pick: Penn State LOST
- #23 ILLINOIS -19.5 vs. Purdue – The Pick: Purdue WON
- #2 Ohio State -3 vs #3 OREGON – The Pick: Ohio State LOST
- Minnesota -5.5 vs. UCLA – The Pick: UCLA WON
I only went 3-4, but it feels like it could have been worse if not for Purdue’s comeback from 24-points down to cover. What a classic game from Ohio State and Oregon.
Week 7 Big Ten Football Power Rankings – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)
College Football Schedule – 2024 Big Ten Season – ESPN
Here are the games for Week 8: (Odds by ESPNBET on 10/16/24).
Week 8 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week
Big Ten Conference Games (7)
- #2 Oregon -27.5 at PURDUE – The Pick: Purdue
- #16 INDIANA -6.5 vs. Nebraska – The Pick: Nebraska
- Wisconsin -7 at NORTHWESTERN – The Pick: Wisconsin
- RUTGERS -4.5 vs. UCLA (away) – The Pick: Rutgers
- #24 Michigan -3 at #22 ILLINOIS – The Pick: Michigan (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week)
- USC -7 at MARYLAND (home) – The Pick: USC
- Iowa -5.5 at MICHIGAN STATE – The Pick: Michigan State
Oregon -27.5 at PURDUE
Oregon faces coming off the huge emotional win over Ohio State and is traveling two times zones to play at Purdue on a short week on Friday night. Big Ten teams traveling two time zones or more this year are 3-10 in conference games. These are all major motivational and off-the-field factors Oregon will need to overcome this week against a Purdue team that finally showed fight and grit and almost beat Illinois in overtime as 19.5-point underdogs before losing 50-49.
After finding themselves in a 27-3 deficit to Illinois, the Boilermakers got a big offensive spark from new quarterback Ryan Browne (replacing Hudson Card) who was 18-26 for 297 yards with 3 touchdowns and no picks plus 118 yards rushing on 17 carries for 415 of Purdue’s 536 total yards. Purdue went into this game ranked 2nd to last in the Big Ten in total offense at 301 yards/game.
While the offensive output was great, the defensive issues continued as they gave up 556 yards to Illinois including 379 in the air and Purdue remains the worst statistical defense in the Big Ten giving up 457 yards/game. That is a bad combo when facing Oregon’s super talented offense which is 4th in the Big Ten at 465 yards/game led by Heisman hopeful QB Dillon Gabriel.
The Purdue defense vs Oregon offense is a terrible matchup where the Boilers have to hope the Ducks come out unfocused. Offensively you feel better about Purdue since their run game is pretty good at 156 yards/game, good for 11th in the Big Ten and at a healthy 5.4 yards/carry. Overall, the offense ranks 14th in the Big Ten in yards. Oregon’s defense is a solid 7th in the Big Ten.
Big Jeffs Call: The off-field and motivational factors strongly favor Purdue here as 27.5 underdogs. I expect Oregon to put up plenty of points but if they get well ahead they are likely to run the ball more keeping it closer than expected. I am going to call Purdue to cover the +27.5 but that will require new QB Ryan Browne to continue playing well and putting some points on the board. Oregon 42 Purdue 20.
#16 INDIANA -6.5 vs. Nebraska
It will be the FOX Big Noon game in Bloomington on Saturday with Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt on the call with a sell-out crowd for 6-0 Indiana vs. 5-1 Nebraska just as everyone projected before the season started. Both schools are coming off bye weeks.
This game features new quarterbacks who have had a HUGE impact on both their programs. For Indiana, it’s Ohio transfer Kurtis Roark who Pro Football Focus has as the statistically 9th quarterback in the entire nation and first in the Big Ten and has the highest quarterback rating in the Big Ten according to ESPN’s quarterback rating.
Rourke has a career best 74% completion percentage, averages 292 yards/game and has thrown for 14 touchdowns with just 2 picks. He is the biggest reason Indiana has the number one rated offense in the Big Ten at 516 yards/game and they lead the Big Ten in passing at 315 yards/game. IU is also averaging just over 200 yards/game in rushing, so they have good balance.
A concern for Indiana is the defense who gave up 28 points to Maryland and 24 to Northwestern the last two games but statistically is still 2nd in the Big Ten giving up only 256 yards/game helped by a weak front-end schedule. They face a Cornhusker offense who is a middle of the pack 10th on offense in the Big Ten at 382 yards/game but 8th in passing behind star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola who has been really good so far for a freshman averaging 226 yards/game with 9 touchdowns and 3 picks.
Surprisingly Nebraska is only 13th in rushing offense at a disappointing 3.9 yards/carry. As the schedule gets much tougher the second half of the year, the Huskers need this to improve especially on the road. The Nebraska defense is aggressive and opportunistic leading the Big Ten in sacks and tackles for loss.
Big Jeff’s Call: Indiana has had two weeks to hear how great they are and get asked things like do they think they can make the playoffs. “Rat poison” as Nick Saban called it. Curt Cignetti coaches under Saban so he knows that well. How does Indiana handle success? Do they stay focused and hungry? I say yes … well kind of. I call Indiana to win the game but NOT cover the -6.5 points. Indiana 27 Nebraska 24.
Wisconsin -7 at NORTHWESTERN
Wisconsin comes off two blowout victories over Purdue and Rutgers by a combined 81 points as their spread offense under OC Phil Longo looks like it is finally getting on track. Quarterback Braedyn Locke is playing much better but probably most important is the emergence of their rushing attack behind new starter SeniorTawee Walker (taking over for Chez Melluis) who went for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns at 8.3 yards/carry against Rutgers.
The Badgers have run for 228 and 309 yards the past two games and moved up to 8th in the Big Ten in total offense at 415 yards/game and 6th in rushing at 193 yards/game. That is music to Badger fans ears and is more of what they are used to. Despite the “Air Raid” offense name, that is a misnomer since a good Air Raid offense still wants to run the ball after spreading out the defense. Defensively the Badgers are now a solid 8th in the Big Ten giving up 310/game but only 13th against the run.
Northwestern is coming off a 37-10 blowout win at Maryland where they were outgained and had just 283 yards of offense but were +4 against the Terps in the turnover battle. The Wildcats are offensively challenged and are second to last in the Big Ten at 299 yards/game including third to last in rushing at 120 yards/game and avg. 3.9 yards/carry led by Cam Porter’s 4.6 yards/rush.
On defense Northwestern is a little better at 349 yards/game given up, good for 13th in the Big Ten, but they have managed to give up only 19 points/game. The strength is their run defense which is a stingy 5th best in the Big Ten giving up 88 yards/game.
Big Jeff’s Call: This is very simple. As long as the Badgers don’t lose the turnover battle, they win this one easily and cover the -7 points which I think is what will happen. They have a history of playing very bad vs. Northwestern but I feel the Badgers have too much momentum and Northwestern doesn’t have enough firepower on offense to keep up. Wisconsin 27 Northwestern 17.
RUTGERS -4.5 vs. UCLA (away)
A matchup of two very disappointing teams but in two very different ways. Now 4-2, Rutgers had the dream schedule to potentially win 9 or 10 games – no Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, or Michigan – 3 of these are ranked in the top 4 in the nation. Heck, they don’t even play always tough Iowa or surprising #16 Indiana. The only currently ranked team still on the schedule is #22 Illinois and yet the Scarlet Knights have scored only 14-points in back-to-back losses to Nebraska and Wisconsin. Both the scores came in the 4th quarter.
Because their running stats still look good at 5th in the Big Ten (200 yards/game), the overall team offense ranks a respectable 11th in the Big Ten (375 yards/game) but it’s deceiving since the last two games they have had 264 and 271 yards of total offense. Star RB Kyle Monangai has been bottled up the past two games with just 150 yards rushing at 3.95 yards/carry.
Their production has wilted as has their passing efficiency under Minnesota transfer QB Athan Kaliakmanis, who is 27-69 his last two games for a 39% completion percentage and 3 interceptions with just 267 yards passing. It’s not all his fault though as in the Wisconsin game the Rutgers receivers consistently dropped passes. Even still, I have never thought much of Kaliakmanis who ranks just 14th in Big Ten passing efficiency according to Pro Football Focus.
UCLA is just 1-5 overall but they have faced a tough schedule going against three top 25 opponents to date and yet continue to play very hard for new coach DeShaun Foster. This past week they lost 21-17 to Minnesota despite leading 10-0 at the half and outgaining the Gophers 329 to 234. The problem for the Bruins has been undisciplined play as they lost the turnover battle to Minnesota 3-0 and had 10 penalties for 105 yards.
Because of their hard schedule the Bruins look dismal statistically ranking last in the Big Ten in offense at 273 yards/game including last in rushing at 60 yards/game. UCLA is 15th in overall defense at 358 yards/game given up but on the positive side are 6th in Big Ten rushing defense giving up 93 yards/game. This strong run defense gives UCLA hope against Rutgers since rushing is still their strength. But the 3-10 record when traveling two or more time zones is in play here including 0-5 for teams traveling west to east.
Big Jeff’s Call: With the struggling Rutgers offense and a pretty good UCLA defense, you can expect a very low scoring game as the over/under is 40.5. At a neutral site, I would love UCLA here, but they are traveling three time zones and playing at Noon EST which is 9 am Pacific time. On those factors alone I am going with Rutgers to cover the -4.5, even though I love how hard the Bruins are playing. Rutgers 23 UCLA 17.
#24 Michigan -3 at #22 ILLINOIS
This is the week’s only Big Ten Top 25 match, though it doesn’t feel like it.
Michigan (4-2) comes into this game off a bye week and has had a roller coaster ride so far following their National Championship last year. Against Illinois they will start their third quarterback this season in veteran Jack Tuttle after Davis Warren started the year and then Alex Orji started the last 3 games. They need a spark because so far, they have been completely one-dimensional with the 3rd worst rated (16th) offense in the Big Ten at 306 yards/game and dead last in passing at 115 yards/game, which is actually third worst at the FCS level right between UL Monroe and Army. Ouch.
On the positive, Michigan is 7th in the Big Ten in rushing offense at 191 yards/game so you know the Wolverines are going to want to continue to run the ball as their best strength. With Tuttle at quarterback, I expect a more successful pass attack, but Michigan is limited by a lack of wide receiver talent.
What might be more of a surprise is the defense which is very talented with up to 4 potential first-round NFL picks but only rank 8th in overall defense at 336 yards/game given up but a dismal 16th in passing yards given up at 260 yards/game. It’s on the new Michigan coaching staff under Sherrone Moore to fix these things.
For 5-1 Illinois, the story is about winning close games which includes by six points over then #19 Kansas at home and two overtime victories over Nebraska and Purdue last week 50-49. The Illini are ranked #22 in the nation though it feels like they are very fortunate to be there based on how they look statistically.
On offense, Illinois is middle of the pack in the Big Ten ranking 9th at 382 yards/game and 9th in passing and only 12th in rushing. On defense, the stats show more mediocrity with the Illini ranking 12th in overall defense giving up 348 yards game and are 10th in pass defense and 15th in run defense giving up 150 yards/game which is a major concern against this strong Michigan run attack led by RB Kalel Mullings who averages just under 100 yards/game and 6.5 yards/carry.
Key to Illinois success has been the stellar play of junior quarterback Luke Altmeyer who is completing 67% of his passes with an efficient 14 touchdowns and 1 interception instrumental to Illinois being +4 in turnover margin.
Big Jeff’s Call: Bottom line is Michigan has issues they need to clean up on both offense and defense and I think they will get better after this off week. Illinois has middling stats across the board and has been fortunate to be 5-1. I think that fortune ends this week and Michigan wins and covers the -3 in my LOCK CITY Pick of the Week. Michigan 27 Illinois 17.
USC -7 at MARYLAND (home)
We have two teams coming off very disappointing homes losses and two potentially mentally fragile teams. USC is 3-3 and 1-3 in conference so are out of the Big Ten championship and playoff hunt only halfway through the season. The heat has been turned up on head coach Lincoln Riley from three different games they have lost late, despite signs of good improvement on defense.
USC is in a stretch where they could right the ship playing five straight unranked teams starting at Maryland, then Rutgers at home and at Washington. Key for USC is the coaching staff keeping the team mentally focused given many pre-season goals can no longer be met.
For 3-3 Maryland who is looking for their first conference win (0-3), they are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss at home to Northwestern 37-10 after an off week in which they outgained the Wildcats 355 to 283 but were -4 in turnovers including three lost fumbles. Under Mike Locksley Maryland has a pattern of getting off to good starts in September but then falling apart in October and November so they have some mental hurdles to overcome.
Let’s look at the matchups. On offense, USC is 6th in the Big Ten at 437 yards/game led by the 6th best passing attack under Miller Moss and a talented receiver core, plus an improving rushing attack that now ranks 10th but has moved up behind running back Woody Marks who has gone for over 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games including 245 yards the past two weeks and averages 5.7 yards/carry. If anything it feels like Lincoln Riley should run the football more than he has.
On defense USC ranks 13th in the Big Ten giving up 350 yards/game and they are 11th in pass defense and 16th in rushing defense, though they have faced more run-oriented teams.
For Maryland, their strength is their offense ranking 7th in the Big Ten (435 yards/game) led by the 2nd rated passing attack at 303 yards/game but are only 14th in rushing offense. Quarterback Billy Edwards, Jr. has been solid at quarterback completing 68% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions leveraging star receiver Tai Felton who is leading the Big Ten in receiving with 719 yards.
Defense is a problem for Maryland as they rank 16th overall giving up 365 yards/game including 15th in pass defense which is not a great matchup with Miller Moss and USC’s passing attack.
Big Jeff’s Call: This is a very tough call because USC must overcome the stat that this year west teams traveling east 2 or more time zones are 0-5 in the Big Ten with USC 0-2 (losses to Michigan and Minnesota). Maryland is home but will they have a cynical, un-energetic crowd negating some of the home field advantage? I like USCs pass game against Maryland but it’s more about the mental state of these teams. I will say USC to win and cover -7 since Lincoln Riley is still the better coach. USC 35 Maryland 24.
Iowa -5.5 at MICHIGAN STATE
Iowa is 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten after a big 40-16 home win over Washington. The schedule is one of the easiest in the Big Ten and the remaining games have no ranked teams and as it stands now and the only Top 25 team Iowa may play will have been #3 Ohio State two weeks ago. Iowa has a real chance to go 9-3 or possibly even 10-2 and are still in the Big Ten race with one loss and it starts at Michigan State Saturday night.
It’s much different for 3-3 Michigan State, who are coming off three straight losses including #4 Ohio State and #2 Oregon and have three more Top 25 teams down the line (Michigan, Indiana and Illinois) two of which are on the road. In Jonathan Smith’s first year a bowl game should probably be the goal, and they need to find 3 more wins. They have Purdue and Rutgers the final two games so beating either Iowa this week or Indiana at home November 2 may be required to get the 3 making this Iowa game really big.
Let’s compare some stats:
- Offense: Iowa 12th overall, 17th passing (135 ypg), 1st rushing (223 ypg)
- Defense: Mich State 10th overall, 12th passing (199 ypg given up), 12th rushing (131 ypg given up)
- Offense: Mich State 13th overall, 10th passing (230 ypg), 15th rushing (120 ypg)
- Defense: Iowa 9th overall, 13th passing (220 ypg given up), 8th (96 ypg given up)
A couple things stand out. First, Iowa’s defense only ranking 9th overall is very surprising showing they aren’t as strong as normal and how Iowa is still one-dimensional on offense ranking 17th in passing but first in rushing. It’s not great the Spartans are only 12th in rush defense and a key will be slowing down Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson who leads the Big Ten with 937 yards rushing good for second in the nation.
Michigan State would probably be better than 13th in Big Ten offense if they weren’t minus 6 in turnover margin that includes 8 interceptions from first year QB Aidan Chiles. Not surprisingly Iowa is +6 in turnover margin (with 3 interceptions) so the Spartan offensive line needs to play well keeping pressure off Chiles which will help prevent those turnovers.
Big Jeff’s Call: This matchup is tied for the least Over/Under figure at 40.5 so expect low scoring. Can Sparty slow down Kaleb Johnson? Will Aidan Chiles limit his mistakes and turnovers? I like Jonathan Smith as a coach, think Chiles will show growth and only have 1 INT, and feel a strong home environment will allow them to cover the +5.5 but Iowa wins by a field goal. Iowa 20 Michigan State 17.
