We are halfway through the Big Ten schedule with most teams (except Penn State) playing four or five conference games. We now have a much better feel for all these teams, which in some cases is much different than how things looked after the non-conference schedule was complete.
I give my Big 10 football mid-season report card below in order of highest to lowest graded team. A significant portion of the grade factors in pre-season expectations as represented in the first table below in the Vegas over/under pre-season projected win total and Lindy’s Sports publication pre-season rankings.
I also use ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings to help project future wins and losses per team. For each future game, I add 2 points for the home team to each SP+ value to predict game winners. Of course, we know there will be upsets and you can expect different final results.
Finally, before we go into all the grades, I feel there are currently five distinct tiers within the Big Ten.
Big Jeff’s Mid-Season Big Ten Tiers
- Legit National Title Contenders (2): Oregon, Ohio State
- Top 10 Teams (2): Penn State, Indiana
- Top 25 Teams (1 or 2): Illinois, and maybe Wisconsin? We will find out this week against Penn State.
- Middle of the Pack (the “Big 12 Group” (10): Michigan State, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Washington, Northwestern, Maryland, Rutgers, USC, Michigan – these teams could beat each other any given week and there is not a lot that distinguishes each from the other. They are more like how the Big 12 looks right now with mostly parity across the board.
- Terrible (1 or 2): Purdue, and maybe UCLA? – but I think UCLA are more middle of the pack given their brutal early schedule.
Mid-Season Report Card Grades and Data
| Team | Grade | Vegas Win Totals | Lindy’s Preseason Rank | Current Record | SP+ National Rank | SP+ Value | Projected Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | A+ | 5.5 | 71 | 7-0 | 12 | 18.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | Oregon | A | 10.5 | 4 | 7-0 | 5 | 24.6 | 12-0 |
| 3 | Illinois | A | 5.5 | 65 | 6-1 | 45 | 6.7 | 10-2 |
| 4 | Penn State | A- | 9.5 | 11 | 6-0 | 6 | 24.4 | 11-1 |
| 5 | Michigan State | B+ | 4.5 | 51 | 4-3 | 72 | 0.6 | 5-7 |
| 6 | Ohio State | B | 10.5 | 2 | 5-1 | 1 | 29.1 | 11-1 |
| 7 | Wisconsin | B | 6.5 | 31 | 5-2 | 20 | 12.0 | 7-5 |
| 8 | Iowa | B- | 8.5 | 27 | 4-3 | 23 | 11.4 | 9-3 |
| 9 | Minnesota | B- | 5.5 | 55 | 4-3 | 42 | 7.3 | 6-6 |
| 10 | Nebraska | B- | 7.5 | 38 | 5-2 | 32 | 9.6 | 6-6 |
| 11 | Washington | C+ | 6.5 | 39 | 4-3 | 27 | 11.3 | 6-6 |
| 12 | Northwestern | C | 4.5 | 52 | 3-4 | 73 | -0.5 | 4-8 |
| 13 | Maryland | C- | 6.5 | 48 | 4-3 | 52 | 5.2 | 5-7 |
| 14 | Rutgers | D+ | 6.5 | 46 | 4-3 | 58 | 4.0 | 5-7 |
| 15 | USC | D | 7.5 | 26 | 3-4 | 26 | 11.3 | 6-6 |
| 16 | UCLA | D | 4.5 | 54 | 2-5 | 79 | -3.2 | 3-9 |
| 17 | Michigan | D- | 8.5 | 6 | 4-3 | 24 | 11.4 | 6-6 |
| 18 | Purdue | F | 4.5 | 64 | 1-6 | 89 | -8.0 | 1-11 |
SP+ data is from Bill Connelly of ESPN.com
Big Ten football: 2024 Mid-season coach ranks
1) Indiana Hoosiers: A+
The Skinny: Indiana are the darlings of college football with their totally unexpected hot start backed by their brash and colorful coach Curt Cignetti with his bold proclamations that he is backing up (and you can Google him on that). Cignetti is the clear leader for national coach of the year and his confidence in his winning blueprint has totally rubbed off on the team.
The over/under win total from Vegas was 5.5 wins and IU is already 7-0, plus Lindy’s pre-season publication had IU rated #71 in the nation and as the worst team in the Big Ten. Indiana is ranked 13th in the nation and are tied for first place in the Big Ten with Oregon. IU has exceeded all expectations – by a lot!
Reasons for Optimism: Indiana is playing amazing on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense where they rank first in the Big Ten and 5th in the nation with an average of 513 yards/game. The key is the play of Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke who has the highest Passing Efficiency grade in the nation according to Pro Football Focus. Rourke is completing 75% of his passes with 15 TDs and only 3 interceptions.
On defense the Hoosiers are 7th in the nation giving up 263 yards/game, good for 2nd in the Big Ten. Indiana has not trailed this year and has won every game by double digits.
Biggest Concern: Against Nebraska last week, Rourke hurt his throwing hand thumb and will miss at least the next game vs. Washington. There is hope Rourke will only be out a couple games and while backup quarterback redshirt sophomore quarterback Tayven Jackson performed well in replacing Rourke vs. Nebraska, there is no replacing the experience Rourke has and he was playing at a Heisman candidate level.
Goal for Rest of Season: Crazy to say this for Indiana but making the 12-team college playoff is a legitimate goal right now. If they only lose at Ohio State and finish 11-1, they are in the playoffs regardless if they make the Big Ten championship game or not. If they lose twice, it may be difficult and depend on how many teams in the SEC and Big Ten end up with two losses as well. The reputation of the SEC and their teams would likely trump the Big Ten.
2) Oregon Ducks: A
The Skinny: After opening the year with two home games where Oregon relatively struggled in close 10-point wins vs. Idaho and then a 3-point win over Boise State, there were concerns maybe Oregon is not the team everyone thought. Since then, the now #1 ranked Ducks have completely allayed those concerns highlighted by the biggest win of the Dan Lanning era beating Ohio State at home 32-31 in a program defining win.
Oklahoma transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel has been spectacular and came through in the big Ohio State win with 341 yards and two touchdown passes and one rushing TD. And Oregon has a strong run game behind junior running back Jordan James who is 3rd in the Big Ten with 717 yards rushing at 5.9/carry. Oregon is in great position to exceed the 10.5 Vegas regular season win number.
Reasons for Optimism: Gabriel is an experienced quarterback playing at a very high level and is backed by a team who has high-level skill players and strong offensive and defensive lines making the Ducks true national title contenders. The Ducks have no apparent major weakness.
Biggest Concern: Getting difference making defensive end Jordan Burch who missed the Ohio State and Purdue games back in the lineup. Burch plays a position that is vital to putting pressure on other team’s quarterbacks and will be needed to help the #1 ranked Ducks reach their ultimate goal.
Goal for Rest of Season: Big Ten championship first, then National Championship second. With the win over Ohio State, Oregon is in the driver’s seat to make the Big Ten championship and should have the belief they can beat anyone in the country and win a National Championship.
3) Illinois Fighting Illini: A
The Skinny: Lindy’s projected Bret Bielema’s crew as the second worst Big Ten team. The Vegas over/under wins were just 5.5 for the Illini and at 6-1 they have already exceeded that and have three Top 25 wins (Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan). Bielema is a successful, veteran coach who is building a culture and team that looks relatively similar to his good teams at Wisconsin.
This would be an A+, but Illinois was just a 2-point conversion to Purdue away from losing to the worst team in the Big Ten at home.
Reasons for Optimism: The play of quarterback Luke Altmyer has been the key to the Illini’s success, and he’s been efficient completing 66% of his passes with 15 touchdowns and maybe most important only one interception helping the Illini’s +7 turnover margin.
Biggest Concern: Illinois is near the top of the standings but statistically are more middle of the pack 12th in the Big Ten in both total offense and total defense average yardage/game, but this speaks to the team’s ability to win close games. An area I think Bielema would like to see improve is Illinois’ 11th rated rushing offense at 146 yards/game which can help them continue to shorten games and protect leads.
Goal for Rest of Season: At 6-1, 10 wins and a potential Playoff berth is in play. And if not making a high-level bowl. Illinois has surprised and has a very difficult game next at Oregon, but after that the schedule is very manageable vs four teams who have 4-3 overall records in Minnesota, Michigan State, Rutgers and Northwestern.
4) Penn State Nittany Lions: A-
The Skinny: Vegas had Penn State’s win number at 9.5 and Lindy’s had them as the #11 team in the country. The development and play of quarterback Drew Allar have been exactly what Penn State fans hoped for and combined with a typical stout defense has 6-0 PSU on track to better that win figure or even far exceed it.
Reasons for Optimism: New OC Andy Kotelnicki was brought in to generate a more explosive offense and in particular develop QB Drew Allar. So far, so good. Allar’s completion percent has gone from 59.9% last year to 70.5% this year and his average yards per pass from 6.8 to 10.2 this year and he led a game tying drive in the fourth quarter at USC that helped produce an overtime win.
Biggest Concern: Penn State likely has the best tight end in college football and a true elite weapon in TE Tyler Warren, who with 40 receptions for 513 yards easily leads the team in both categories. His monster game of 224 yards was vital to the OT win at USC. The issue is the Nits need a stronger second and third receiver option to emerge so teams can’t just try to not let Warren beat them.
Goal for Rest of Season: Big Ten championship and deep run in the Playoffs. Winning at USC was a key win and Penn State is in great position to make the Big Ten championship and the playoffs. Beating Ohio State at home will likely be required to make the Big Ten championship game but a loss will not be devastating to their playoff hopes as an 11-1 record will surely get them in. Going 10-2 though would mean PSU might need some luck to get in so winning at Wisconsin this week is a key game.
5) Michigan State: B+
The Skinny: Jonathan Smith is in his first year at 4-3 Michigan State who has probably had the toughest conference schedule in the Big Ten so far including against #4 Ohio State, #1 Oregon and a tough Iowa team. At 2-2 in conference, the Spartans are in a good place playing good defense, showing physicality on both lines and with strong upside as quarterback Aidan Chiles continues to develop. Vegas had the win line at 4.5 so the Spartans are in a great spot to exceed that. Overall, it feels like Smith has this program ahead of schedule.
Reasons for Optimism: Talented young quarterback Chiles struggled with turnovers early in the season which held back the Spartans offense. Through six games, Chiles had 8 interceptions and just 5 touchdowns and under a 60% completion rate. But in a 32-20 home upset last week of Iowa, Chiles had his best game completing 73% of his passes with 256 yards and just one interception. A more efficient Chiles could help the Spartans pull some upsets the rest of the way.
Biggest Concern: Michigan State still has a -6-turnover margin so tied to the optimism listed above the continued need for Chiles not to turn the ball over is the biggest worry. The Spartans need to continue also to run the ball better which will take some pressure off of Chiles.
Goal for Rest of Season: 4-3 Michigan State has a tough remaining schedule so 6 or 7 wins and a bowl berth would be a good goal in Smith’s first year for the Spartans. All five remaining games are winnable, but all except probably at home vs. Purdue are losable as well.
6) Ohio State: B
The Skinny: The new expanded playoffs allow for a loss like Oregon to turn from being devastating to being a huge learning opportunity to make some key adjustments and makes a team more battle tested for future games. The Buckeyes statistically still look great ranking 6th in the nation in yards per game, good for second in the Big Ten and second in the nation in total defense. But the Oregon game revealed the need to generate more quarterback pressure up front and preventing big pass plays. The Buckeyes still have the talent to do exactly that.
Reasons for Optimism: A concern coming into the year was if Will Howard can play big in big games including making tough passes in clutch situations. Howard showed vs Oregon he is up to the task completing 80% of his passes for 326 yards and 2 touchdowns with no picks. Despite the bad ending to the game, he made big throws on that last drive, and this bodes well for the Buckeyes to achieve their goals.
Biggest Concern: Left tackle Josh Simmons got hurt in the Oregon game and was the consensus best offensive lineman for Ohio State and in the most important spot – the quarterback’s blind side. Zen Michalski will try to fill the void, but Simmons was playing at a level where many were saying he may be a first round NFL pick in the upcoming draft. This is the type of injury that can prevent a team like OSU from achieving their ultimate goal of a National Title.
Goal for Rest of Season: Go undefeated the rest of the way (including beating Michigan of course), win the Big Ten and win a National Championship. No big deal. I am not sure if I buy the National Championship or bust expectations but certainly the Buckeyes must beat Michigan, and it would be a huge disappointment not playing in the Big Ten championship and making a long run in the playoffs – the Final 4 at least.
7) Wisconsin: B
The Skinny: Vegas had the Badgers over/under at 6.5 and Lindy’s ranked them #31. Early in the season Wisconsin looked shaky including getting blown out by Alabama 42-10 that had people questioning if Luke Fickell in his second year was the right man for the job. But now the 5-2 Badgers are on a 3-game winning streak that has seen an aggregate score of 117 to 16, with the defense playing extremely well.
Next up is a huge game vs. #3 Penn State that would be Fickell’s first marquee Wisconsin win and would vault them into the Top 25. Overall though, Fickell seems to be settling into the job much better.
Reasons for Optimism: The emergence of Tawee Walker at running back has helped ignite the 3-game winning streak and taken some of the pressure off QB Braedyn Locke needing to replace the injured starter Tyler Van Dyke who got hurt vs Alabama. Walker has run for 94, 198 and 126 in the last 3 games and averages 5.4 yards/carry vaulting the Badgers up to now #5 in the Big Ten in rushing.
Biggest Concern: QB Braedyn Locke is playing better but the ceiling for the Badgers depends on him and the passing game to continually get better. He is completing just 59% of his passes and has only 7 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. That needs to be better to beat the tougher teams on the schedule.
Goal for Rest of Season: The Badgers are 5-2 but have a tough remaining schedule including #3 Penn State, #1 Oregon and road games at Iowa and Nebraska before finishing vs Minnesota. They could go 1-4 or 4-1 but it’s more likely 3-2 or 2-3. A record of 8-4 would show significant progress and get Wisconsin into a solid bowl game.
8) Iowa: B-
The Skinny: Vegas set an 8.5-win number for Iowa and Lindy’s ranked them #27. At 4-3, Iowa is underachieving that but is through the harder part of their schedule. The Hawkeyes have been much more inconsistent than normal this year. I blame that on a defense that is not nearly as good as past years and rank only 11th in the Big Ten in yards given up when they are normally near the top. The pass defense ranks just 13th in the Big Ten.
Reasons for Optimism: The emergence of star running back Kaleb Johnson has helped ignite the wins against Minnesota and Washington where Johnson ran for 206 and 166 yards respectively. He is first in the Big Ten and second in the nation with 1,035 yards rushing at 7.8 yards/carry. A strong rushing game is always key given the limitations of the Iowa passing game.
Biggest Concern: Of course, the lack of a passing game remains the Hawkeyes biggest issue despite a new Offensive Coordinator this year replacing embattled OC Brian Ferentz. Iowa has the 13th rated Big Ten offense and 2nd to last pass offense only ahead of Michigan. Cade McNamara completes only 61% of his passes and averages a paltry 5.9 yards/pass and lacks strong downfield options other than TE Luke Lachey.
Goal for Rest of Season: The passing game limits this teams ceiling. But the remaining schedule is very reasonable for the Hawkeyes with no current ranked Top 25 teams and 3 of 5 games at home where Iowa plays much better. To come close to pre-season expectations though, Iowa needs a 4-1 finish to get to 8-4.
9) Minnesota: B-
The Skinny: Vegas had modest expectations on the Gophers at 5.5 wins and Lindy’s had them #55 in the country. After an early season disappointing loss at home to North Carolina on a missed field goal, the Gophers got one back with a comeback win over USC and did it again the next week coming behind to beat UCLA.
Reasons for Optimism: Minnesota has lacked strong quarterback play so they went out and got experienced New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer who has mostly met expectations. Brosmer has been solid and steady completing 68% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and 4 picks. Most important he has played well in the second half helping the Gophers win in two comebacks and almost do it against Michigan as well.
Biggest Concern: Traditionally, Minnesota’s formula has been to be strong in the trenches with a good defense and effective run game. That the Gophers are second to last in the Big Ten with only 106 yards/game rushing. That won’t get it done with a tough remaining schedule.
Goal for Rest of Season: The schedule is not easy with 3 of 5 road games including at Illinois, Rutgers and Wisconsin and a home date with #3 Penn State. Taking 3 of the 5 would be doing well and put Minnesota at 7-5 and in a solid bowl game while exceeding pre-season expectations.
10) Nebraska: B-
The Skinny: Nebraska’s schedule was on the easier side, so Vegas set 7.5 wins and Lindy’s had the Huskers 38th in the nation. But the Huskers have lost to both Illinois and Indiana who were expected to be easier but are both now Top 25 teams. The win over Colorado in the second game looks better and better as the Buffaloes continue to surge but the offense has struggled to put up points scoring 10 or less in 4 of the last 6 games.
Reasons for Optimism: For a first-year quarterback, Dylan Raiola has mostly played well and you can see how high his ceiling is. The future is bright as he develops but he also is prone to some bad mistakes, and it doesn’t help that Nebraska doesn’t run the ball better taking pressure off of him ranking just 14th in the Big Ten at 127 yards/game.
Biggest Concern: Progress seemed to be just fine in year 2 under Matt Rhule but then Indiana happened and that shocking 56-7 loss has Huskers fans wondering where this team is right now. The biggest surprise is the highly rated defense just getting run over by the Hoosiers who did not punt until the fourth quarter. It doesn’t get easier this week playing at Ohio State, so the mental state and confidence of the team is a worry.
Goal for Rest of Season: Nebraska has not been to a bowl game in 8 years so at 5-2 are in a good spot to get at least 6 wins. But after a 5-1 start, a 6-6 finish would not feel like good momentum so getting to 8-4 would be a good stretch goal. That would require beating both UCLA and Wisconsin at home and then winning at either USC or Iowa.
11) Washington: C+
The Skinny: It was hard to project the Huskies after losing so many starters and getting a relatively late new coach in Jedd Fisch. Vegas had the Huskers with a 6.5-win total and Lindy’s ranked them #39. Not surprisingly they have played very up and down with a highlight win over Michigan but blowing a game at Rutgers and getting routed at Iowa. This team has big potential with a good productive quarterback in Will Rogers and a star running back in Jonah Coleman, but a brutal schedule limits the Huskies ceiling.
Reasons for Optimism: Teams who show they are balanced and are productive both passing and running the ball are very dangerous. Washington is 4th in the Big Ten in passing and 10th in rushing. Even their defense is 5th in the Big Ten in yards given up so statistically this is one of the better teams in the Big Ten. Instead of 4-3 they easily could be 6-1.
Biggest Concern: Why is this team only 4-3? That speaks to mistakes and the inability to close out games which is a major concern given the difficulty of the remaining schedule that will likely bring more close games.
Goal for Rest of Season: The Huskies are 4-3 but may have the hardest remaining schedule of any Big Ten team. It starts with surprising #13 Indiana this week but then USC, at Penn State, UCLA and at #1 Oregon. 2-3 is the most likely outcome so seeking 3 more wins for a 7-5 finish would be a good goal.
12) Northwestern: C
The Skinny: Expectations for Northwestern were low with the Vegas number at 4.5 wins. The Wildcats are 3-4 and just 1-3 in the Big Ten in David Braun’s second year. As expected, Northwestern’s strength is the defense, but they have major challenges on offense ranking dead last in the Big Ten at 287 yards/game. Braun has not had enough chance to build the program, making a C grade fair.
Reasons for Optimism: With the offensive limitations, to win the Cats need to limit mistakes and turnovers or they just can’t generate enough offense. They have mostly done that with a +5 turnover margin and averaging only 42 yards/game in penalties. But the margin for error is extremely thin.
Biggest Concern: How to get better quarterback production to ignite the offense. Mike Wright started the year and was replaced by Jack Lausch in game 3. The stats are not impressive for either and Lausch is rated the worst starter in the Big Ten completing just 51% of his passes with 4 touchdowns and 2 picks. It doesn’t help that the Wildcat rushing attack is also not good.
Goal for Rest of Season: That schedule. Ugh. NW is 3-4 and has road games at Iowa, Purdue, and Michigan. And home vs #4 Ohio State and #20 Illinois. They should beat Purdue and maybe they can out ugly Michigan. It could be hard just to make it to 5-7 but since that does not make a bowl, we will say 6-6 is the goal. I have a hard time seeing 3 more wins though.
13) Maryland: C-
The Skinny: Vegas was pretty optimistic with 6.5 wins for the Terps. It did not look good after Maryland surprisingly lost to Northwestern at home before turning around the next week and upsetting USC to potentially save their season. But this is a Mike Locksley team and counting on a great late season record is likely folly.
Reasons for Optimism: The strength for the Terps is their #1 rated Big Ten passing attack led by Billy Edwards, Jr. at 313 yards/game and an efficient 70% completion rate with 13 TDs. Maryland has good skill players as they often do, led by Big Ten leading receiver Tai Felton who has 803 yards and 6 TDs and Kaden Prather with 461 yards.
Biggest Concern: Consistency. Maryland can lose to anybody and they did to Northwestern at home. But they also can beat USC or Virginia on the road. They are consistently inconsistent which is not a good characteristic and have been that way throughout Locksley’s Maryland tenure.
Goal for Rest of Season: The Terps are 4-3 but will likely only be favored in 1 of their remaining 5 games (home vs. Rutgers). Anything less than 6 wins and a bowl game would be a major disappointment so 6-6 is probably the goal. With games at #1 Oregon and #3 Penn State that means Maryland will need to beat Rutgers and also win at Minnesota or home vs Iowa.
14) Rutgers: D+
The Skinny: After years of suffering through the annual Big Ten East gauntlet of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, Rutgers got their “dream schedule” this year avoiding all those Bluebloods and even now #1 Oregon. After a good 4-0 start though, Greg Schiano’s team has lost 3 in a row to Nebraska and at home to Wisconsin (in a blowout) and then UCLA who got their first Big Ten win. Sound the alarm because Rutgers is blowing their opportunity and not looking good doing it.
Reasons for Optimism: The remaining schedule is still not hard with just one ranked team (#20 Illinois) on it. At struggling USC, along with Maryland and Michigan State are all winnable games. Then home vs Minnesota and Illinois are also winnable, meaning Rutgers can still mostly salvage the season.
Biggest Concern: What happened to the Jersey hard-nosed defense? They are ranked second to last in the Big Ten giving up 385 yards/game and 15th in giving up 22.3 points/game.
Goal for Rest of Season: The Scarlet Knights are 4-3. Not getting to 6-win bowl eligibility would be a total disaster. Given the schedule though, the goal should still be 7 wins which means going 3-2 the rest of the way. Maybe a saving grace for Schiano is Vegas only had a figure of 6.5 wins for Rutgers anyway.
15) USC: D
The Skinny: For USC, Vegas set the win total at 7.5 and Lindy’s ranked them #26 in the country. USC opened the season at #23 and beat #13 LSU 27-20, dramatically raising everyone’s expectations and rising to #13 themselves. Other than a win over Wisconsin in Game 4 coming down from 21-10 at halftime, it’s been mostly disappointment for USC blowing 4th quarter leads in losses to Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State and Maryland. The inability of Lincoln Riley and the Trojans to close out games has been shocking and has USC at risk to not even make a bowl game.
Reasons for Optimism: If you lose 4 games in the fourth quarter at least that says you are a very competitive team with strong potential. USC’s 3-4 record could easily be 5-2 or even 6-1. The defense is better, the offense has strong skill talent and USC still has the players to play better the second half of the year.
Biggest Concern: Beyond the obvious inability to close games which could reveal a lack of confidence, the unwillingness and inability of USC to establish a strong run game is not going to allow USC to win in the Big Ten long term. Currently, USC is 12th in the Big Ten in rushing at 145 yards/game.
Goal for Rest of Season: At 3-4, USC just has to hope to make a bowl game which requires going 3-2 down the stretch. But 7-5 is a reasonable goal. The final game is vs. Notre Dame, which is a rivalry game, but I give the Irish a strong edge. Next up is home vs Rutgers, at Washington, vs Nebraska and at UCLA so USC may need to win both those home games and win either at Washington or UCLA to get to 7 wins.
16) UCLA: D
The Skinny: UCLA is 2-5 and has had a brutal schedule including vs surprising #13 Indiana, at #8 LSU, home vs #1 Oregon and at #4 Penn State. It was probably not surprising Vegas set their wins at 4.5. After that gauntlet, UCLA almost beat Minnesota at home but lost after being up 10-0 at the half. Then last week got their first Big Ten win at Rutgers and saw QB Ethan Garbers have a huge game with 383 yards and 4 TDs.
Reasons for Optimism: Throughout the 1-5 start, UCLA still played very hard for first year coach DeShaun Foster which is a very good sign since I have doubted the fight of some other Big Ten teams. And due to their tough schedule, UCLA is actually better than their record shows. The Bruins remaining schedule is reasonable.
Biggest Concern: Despite leading the Pac 12 last year in rushing and retaining most of their key offensive players, UCLA’s lack of an effective running game is shocking ranking last in the Big Ten (by a lot) at only 65 yards/game. In the Big Ten the ability to run the ball is vital for winning football and UCLA needs to figure that out.
Goal for Rest of Season: Despite the bad start, UCLA faces no remaining ranked teams so 6 wins and a bowl should be the goal. It won’t be easy. It will likely require three home wins vs. Iowa, USC and Fresno State. And then a win on the road vs either Nebraska or Washington. Though unlikely, it is possible. A 4-8 season I think is the most likely scenario which would not be a disaster for coach Foster.
17) Michigan: D-
The Skinny: Despite losing Jim Harbaugh as head coach, many of his assistants and key players from the National Championship team last year, the expectations from much of the media was Michigan would regress some but not fall significantly. I agreed and wrote about that (link below) due to Michigan returning so many NFL-ready players on their defense. Vegas had Michigan’s over/under win total at 8.5 and Lindy’s ranked them #6 in the country.
Michigan is 4-3 and 2-2 in the Big Ten. Michigan ranks 3rd to last in the Big Ten in total offense and dead last in passing at 128 yards/game. The rushing attack is solid led by RB Kalel Mullings 676 yards (5th in Big Ten) at 6.1 yards/carry, but the Wolverines are still just 7th in the Big Ten in rushing at 180 yards/game. Maybe more disappointing is the star laden defense is a middle of the pack 10th in yards given up at 326/game and their pass defense ranks 14th in the Big Ten. These stats are more like for a team that should be under .500 and tremendous pressure is already on coach Sherrone Moore and his staff.
Why Michigan Football in 2024 Won’t Fall off a Cliff – Big Jeff’s Football
Reasons for Optimism: It’s hard to find many silver linings for the Wolverines but the defensive line is still a bright spot. Senior Josaiah Stewart is rated the #1 defensive end nationally by Pro Football Focus based on performance. Mason Graham ranks 2nd nationally at defensive tackle and fellow tackle Rayshaun Benny is 6th in the nation. Graham and tackle Kenneth Grant are still projected first round NFL picks next year.
Biggest Concern: We are approaching game 8 and Michigan still doesn’t have a quarterback they can count on to produce even average production. For the year, Michigan QBs have 6 passing TDs and 9 interceptions. They started with Davis Warren for 3 games, turned to Alex Orji, then went with Jack Tuttle in game 7. They have yet to announce the starter for game 8 and frankly this situation is a mess. Fans and followers of Michigan don’t understand why the staff let the situation get to this point.
Goal for Rest of Season: The remaining schedule is one of the toughest in the Big Ten starting with a home game vs. improving rival Michigan State, then games vs #1 Oregon, at #13 Indiana, vs Northwestern and at #4 Ohio State. Getting to 7-5 would be a good goal at this point and building some momentum will be critical for this coaching staff. But with this team anything is possible.
18) Purdue: F
The Skinny: At 1-6 and 0-4 in the Big Ten, Purdue has easily been the worst team in the Big Ten in coach Ryan Walter’s second year. Offensively they rank 14th in the Big Ten in total offense but they have the worst defense by far giving up 452 yards/game. Vegas had the Boilermaker wins at 4.5 and Lindy’s ranked them 64th which was third to last in the Big Ten. It’s surprising Purdue is not better given they returned an experienced and talented QB in Hudson Card and solid running backs in Devin Mockobee and Reggie Love III.
Reasons for Optimism: Hudson Card got hurt and freshman quarterback Ryan Browne has come in and played well overall and adds a running dimension that Card did not have. He almost led Purdue to a win over Illinois in his first game before losing in overtime, throwing for 297 yards, 3 touchdowns and rushing for 118 yards. That kind of dual threat capability can make any offense difficult to defend.
Biggest Concern: Losing the locker room and belief in the coaching staff. At times I thought Purdue had quit this year. In a 52-6 loss to Wisconsin in the second half for example. The almost win vs. Illinois indicated Purdue still had some fight in them but the remaining schedule is brutal, and the mental state of the team is a huge concern.
Goal for Rest of Season: Sad to say, the goal should probably be finding two more wins to go 3-9 and show Ryan Walters is capable of the job at Purdue. The schedule includes #4 Ohio State, #3 Penn State and #13 and rival Indiana. Assuming losses there, Purdue needs to beat Northwestern at home and Michigan State on the road to got to 3-9. A 2-10 record is more likely.
