Each week Big Jeff will give my picks for all Big Ten conference games and the one I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” pick of the week. Football is all about two things – Matchups and Motivation (which includes the team’s mental state) – and that is the key criteria I use in deciding my picks. Vegas is great at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise but let’s get to it starting with a quick review of last week.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (after Week 8)
- Last Week: 2-5 vs Spread; Lost Lock City pick
- Year-to-Date: 19-15-1 vs Spread; 2-3 in “Lock City” picks of week
Week 8 Pick Summary
- #2 Oregon -27.5 at PURDUE – The Pick: Purdue LOST
- #16 INDIANA -6.5 vs. Nebraska – The Pick: Nebraska LOST
- Wisconsin -7 at NORTHWESTERN – The Pick: Wisconsin WON
- RUTGERS -4.5 vs. UCLA (away) – The Pick: Rutgers LOST
- #24 Michigan -3 at #22 ILLINOIS – The Pick: Michigan (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week) WON
- USC -7 at MARYLAND (home) – The Pick: USC LOST
- Iowa -5.5 at MICHIGAN STATE – The Pick: Michigan State WON
It was a tough week as I went 2-5. USC was in a great position in the 4th quarter to cover but blew it. Not surprised UCLA got their first win at Rutgers. It was a matter of time based on how hard they play but that was a really bad home less for Schiano and Rutgers.
Big 10 Football Mid-Season Report Card – Big Jeff’s Football
College Football Schedule – 2024 Big Ten Season – ESPN
Here are the games for Week 9: (Odds by ESPNBET on 10/24/24).
Week 9 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week
Big Ten Conference Games (8)
- USC -13.5 vs. Rutgers (Friday Night) – The Pick: USC
- #4 OHIO STATE -25.5 vs. Nebraska – The Pick: Ohio State
- #13 INDIANA -6.5 vs Washington – The Pick: Indiana
- #1 OREGON -21.5 vs. #20 Illinois – The Pick: Oregon
- IOWA -13.5 vs. Northwestern – The Pick: Northwestern
- MINNESOTA -4 vs. Maryland – The Pick: Minnesota
- #3 Penn State -6.5 at WISCONSIN – The Pick: Wisconsin (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week)
- MICHIGAN -4 vs. Michigan State – The Pick: Michigan State
USC -13.5 vs. Rutgers
A matchup between two of the most disappointing teams in the Big Ten. My mid-season report card grade released this week gave USC a D and Rutgers a D+. Both their “parents” (really fans) are very disappointed in them.
USC has lost 4 games despite leading in all of them in the fourth quarter. USC looks like a team that is not equipped to thrive in the Big Ten with a defense that is 14th in the Big Ten in yards given up and 13th in rushing yards given up. They also are unwilling and maybe unable to run the ball well, which is vital to Big Ten success, ranking only 12th in the Big Ten at 145 yards/game. The lack of the run game has not allowed USC to protect those 4th quarter leads running down the clock.
Rutgers is 4-3 and has lost three in a row. They have been hit with many critical injuries on defense and it shows in their stats as they rank second to last in Big Ten defense allowing 385 yards/game and offensively they are a middle of the road 9th in Big Ten yards/game, though they are 6th in the Big Ten in rushing. But their formula of a strong running game backed by good defense has totally broken down this year.
Why USC can cover: Of USC’s four 4th quarter losses, three were on the road. USC plays like a different team at home. USC is 6th in Big Ten passing while Rutgers is second to last in pass defense. QB Miller Moss should have success throwing the ball.
Why take the points with Rutgers: Rutgers still has a strong running game ranking 6th in the Big Ten behind returning 2023 Big Ten rushing leader Kyle Monangai who is second in the Big Ten with 845 yards at 5.0 yards/carry. Rutgers must run the ball well and control the clock which they are capable of to keep this close.
Big Jeffs Call: USC should be able to throw the ball on Rutgers and if they get ahead early Rutgers does not have the firepower to keep up. USC is due to blow someone out after playing in so many tight games and because they are at home, I think they will do exactly that. I like the Trojans to win and cover. USC 35 Rutgers 17.
#4 OHIO STATE -25.5 vs. Nebraska
Ohio State is coming off their disappointing one-point loss at Oregon and then had to similar on it for 2 weeks since they had a bye last week. Nebraska is coming off a shocking 49-point beat down at Indiana, which has to be a big hit to their confidence they are going to have to quickly forget as they likely face an angry Buckeyes squad at home.
Why Ohio State can cover: The Buckeyes still rank 6th in the nation in offense (ypg) and second in the Big Ten and are equally strong rushing and passing. On defense they are second in the nation (ypg given up) behind only Texas and first in the Big Ten. Nebraska is mostly middle of the pack in the Big Ten in passing and rushing defense so it will be hard for Nebraska to shut down OSU’s well-balanced attack. Nebraska is built for lower scoring games so likely can’t keep up with Ohio State.
Why take the points with Nebraska: Nebraska is still 5-2 even though it feels worse than that. Their defense is still a solid 8th in the Big Ten overall and assuming their confidence can recover from the IU blowout they are capable of at least containing the Buckeyes talented offense. Also, Ohio State has to replace left tackle Josh Simmons who is out for the year and was their best lineman. The Huskers have a strong pass rush and look for them to try to attack replacement tackle Zen Michalski.
Big Jeff’s Call: Expect the Buckeyes, and especially their defense, to come out an angry and motivated team. The Nebraska defense’s confidence has to be shaken after the Indiana game and at the worst time playing OSU on the road. With a loss already, even if Ohio State is winning easily, I expect they will keep being aggressive on offense allowing them to cover the 25.5. Ohio State 45 Nebraska 13.
#13 INDIANA -6.5 vs Washington
Indiana and Curt Cignetti are the talk of the college football world and has ESPN’s College Gameday on campus for this matchup. They will have to overcome though the injury to quarterback Kurtis Rourke who will miss this game and is playing at an all-conference level with Pro Football Focus ranking him #1 in the nation in passing efficiency.
Washington is 4-3 and 2-2 in the Big Ten coming off a bye week after a disappointing 40-16 loss at Iowa. Statistically the Huskies should be much better than 4-3 and could easily be 6-1 instead. Washington is 5th overall in Big Ten offense including 4th in passing and 10th in rushing. Their defense is also 5th in the Big Ten in yards given so they are good on both sides of the ball.
Why Indiana can cover: IU is one of two teams (Army is the other) who still has never trailed this year and won each game by double-digits. On offense Indiana is 5th in the nation and 1st in the Big Ten at 513 yards/game.
On defense the Hoosiers are 7th in the nation and tied with Penn State at 3rd in the Big Ten giving up 263 yards/game. QB Kurtis Rourke is out but backup Tayven Jackson did start 5 games last year and in relief last week vs Nebraska in the second half went 7-8 for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns, showing he is capable of keeping the IU offense rolling. Also, it will be another sellout crown in Bloomington.
Why take the points with Washington: Indiana only has the 109th hardest schedule to date and has yet to face a Top 25 team. If they can get ahead in this game, how will IU handle that? Washington has the kind of balanced offensive firepower behind QB Will Rogers and running back Jonah Coleman (who is averaging 6.9 yards/carry), that they will challenge the Indiana defense more than any other team. The Huskies do need to prove they can play well on the road which they have yet to do.
Big Jeff’s Call: It’s inevitable Indiana is going to have a down game. I thought it may have been last week and was dead wrong. This week is another potential because of losing star QB Rourke. But at this point, until the Hoosiers have that down game, I am not betting against them. And I think backup QB Jackson plays well. Take IU to cover. Indiana 34 Washington 21.
#1 OREGON -21.5 vs. #20 Illinois
A matchup of what should be two extremely confident teams. The number one Ducks are 7-0 and coming off a program defining win over Ohio State and a shutout at Purdue last week. Illinois is 6-1 and 3-1 in conference and is coming off an emotional home win over Michigan and have beaten four Top 25 teams this year. Bret Bielema has shown he knows how to build winning programs which led me to giving Illinois an “A” in my mid-season report card, along with giving Oregon an “A” as well. Big 10 Football Mid-Season Report Card – Big Jeff’s Football
Why Oregon can cover: Despite the great record, statistically Illinois is more middle of the pack ranking 12th in the Big Ten in both offense and defense in yardage/game indicating they have really overachieved. The Ducks meanwhile do not have any weakness that is obvious across all of their units. Oregon is 4th in Big Ten offense and 7th in defense and have the offensive skill players backed by QB Dillon Gabriel’s stellar play that can stress the Illinois defense more than any other of their opponents. Other than Penn State at #3 in Big Ten offense, Nebraska at #10 is the best other offense the Illini have faced.
Why take the points with Illinois: The Illini don’t make mistakes and are +7 in turnover margin with just 45 yards/game in penalties. The strong play of QB Luke Altmyer has been the driver of this as he’s completing an efficient 66% of his passes with 15 touchdowns and only one interception. Also, Illinois only lost by 14 in a tough environment at Penn State in late September.
Big Jeff’s Call: This spread started at -25 for Oregon and is down to -21.5. I wish it were 20.5. Not an easy call since Oregon doesn’t need a blowout given where they likely stand in the eyes of the playoff committee with their win over the Buckeyes. I am going to assume the Illini don’t play as well as normal given the emotional win over Michigan. Take the Ducks to barely cover the 21.5 but don’t bet this one. Oregon 41 Illinois 17.
IOWA -13.5 vs. Northwestern
These two teams are close in how they have performed relative to expectations which led me to giving 4-3 Iowa a B- grade to date and 3-4 Northwestern a C grade. For Iowa, a big positive is the emergence of star running back Kaleb Johnson has helped ignite the wins against Minnesota and Washington and he is first in the Big Ten and second in the nation with 1,035 yards rushing at 7.8 yards/carry.
A strong rushing game is always key given the limitations of the Iowa’s passing game, which they were hoping would be improved but is actually more of the same ranking 2nd to last in the Big Ten. Overall Iowa is just 13th in Big Ten offense but the biggest surprise is the Iowa defense has been mediocre ranking 11th in the Big Ten in yards given up. Statistically this looks like a .500 record team.
The story for second year coach David Braun is Northwestern is simply terrible on offense ranking dead last in the Big Ten at 287 yards/game and 2nd to last in points per game at 19.0. The Cats are also 3rd to last in both offense and defense in yards/game so they don’t do anything well offensively. The defense is a more respectable 13th.
Why Iowa can cover: Iowa is 2-2 in the Big Ten but have played 3 of the 4 on the road and Iowa plays much better at home as evidence by the 40-16 beatdown of Washington. If they can establish a strong run game riding Kaleb Johnson who needs to get 20+ carries, Northwestern is not equipped to keep up and may need to get more aggressive than they want creating potential mistakes. Iowa likely needs a couple turnovers to get the cover.
Why take the points with Northwestern: With the offensive limitations, to win the Cats need to limit mistakes and turnovers or they just can’t generate enough offense. They have mostly done that with a +5 turnover margin and averaging only 42 yards/game in penalties. But the margin for error is extremely thin. They need the same formula against Iowa and other than the 41 points given up to Indiana, they have held all other teams to 24 points or less and have shown they can keep games close and even won on the road at Maryland.
Big Jeff’s Call: Iowa’s offense is weak and scored an average of 14 points the past three games, so to overcome as a 13.5-point underdog the Wildcats might only need to score 14 points. That would require Iowa to score 28 points to cover and a 28-14 Iowa in is 42 points and well over the 37.5 point over/under for this game. I think Northwestern can score 14 on this Iowa defense so I will take the Wildcats +13.5. Iowa 24 Northwestern 14.
MINNESOTA -4 vs. Maryland
Minnesota has won two games in a row from second half comebacks over the L.A. schools (UCLA and USC) and is coming off a bye week. At 4-2 and 2-2, those two wins put the Gophers season back on track and given a tough remaining schedule beating Maryland is close to a must win game to make a bowl.
The Gophers have had steady play from new quarterback Max Brosmer who is completing 68% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and 4 picks. On the bad side, normally Minnesota has a strong run game, but this year are second to last in the Big Ten with only 106 yards/game rushing. The Gophers strength is their 2nd rated Big Ten pass defense, though other than USC they have not played great offenses.
Maryland is coming off a big come from behind win over USC to get their first Big Ten win. This was important since the prior week they surprisingly lost to weak Northwestern. Maryland has been very up and down which has been typical under Mike Locksley.
Maryland leads the Big Ten in passing yards/game behind quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. at 313 yards/game and an efficient 70% completion rate with 13 TDs. Maryland has good skill players as they often do, led by Big Ten leading receiver Tai Felton who has 803 yards and 6 TDs and Kaden Prather with 461 yards. The Terps are weak on defense though and rank 3rd to last in the Big Ten at 372 yards/game and dead last in passing defense giving up 269 yards/game.
Why Minnesota can cover: The Gophers own a big home field advantage and having a quarterback like Max Brosmer could allow them to take advantage of the Terps Big Ten worst pass defense. Minnesota’s Big Ten leading pass defense will be tested by Maryland’s Big Ten best pass offense, but I would give the edge to the Gophers factoring in their home environment.
Why take the points with Maryland: Maryland will need Edwards and that pass offense to continue to play really well to keep it close or win the game. Minnesota has only been tested by USC in the passing game. Also, this team knows how to beat a good team on the road taking down 4-3 Virginia 27-13 in Week 3.
Big Jeff’s Call: Minnesota has won two in a row and has strong momentum and know the importance of this home game for their bowl hopes. Maryland is known for inconsistent play under Mike Locksley. I believe PJ Fleck is a better coach than Locksley and the intangibles favor the Gophers allowing them to cover the 4 points. Minnesota 27 Maryland 20.
#3 Penn State -6.5 at WISCONSIN
These are two teams that so far have mostly exceeded expectations, and I give Penn State an A- so far this year and Wisconsin a B. Penn State is 6-0 and coming off the big comeback win over USC and Wisconsin has won three in a row with an aggregate score of 117 to 16, with the defense playing extremely well. Both teams are playing well and should be confident in a fun night environment at Camp Randall stadium.
For Wisconsin, the emergence of Tawee Walker at running back has helped ignite the 3-game winning streak and has run for 94, 198 and 126 in those games and averages 5.4 yards/carry vaulting the Badgers up to now #5 in the Big Ten in rushing. This is important since QB Braedyn Locke has been less than average completing just 59% of his passes and has only 7 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. The Badgers need Locke to play well and mistake free to pull off this upset. The Badger defense is now up to 8th in the Big Ten and are stronger at stopping the run rating 5th.
For Penn State, new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki was brought in to generate a more explosive offense and in particular develop QB Drew Allar. So far, so good. Allar’s completion percent has gone from 59.9% last year to 70.5% this year and his average yards per pass from 6.8 to 10.2 this year and he led a game tying drive in the fourth quarter at USC that helped produce an overtime win. Penn State is 3rd in the Big Ten in total offense at 471 yards/game and also 3rd in defense.
Why Penn State can cover: Other than maybe Alabama, Wisconsin has not faced a well-balanced offense like Penn State which has the 7th best Big Ten passing offense and 4th best rushing offense. Allar needs to continue to play well and make clutch throws like he did at USC. Getting the running game going in what will be a tough night game environment is vital, and the Nits have the horses to do it with running backs Nick Singleton (6.9 yards/carry) and Kaytron Allen (4.7/carry). Penn State has won 5 straight in this series.
Why take the points with Wisconsin: Electric home environment, momentum from a 3-game winning streak, a defense playing really well, and a renewed running game under Tawee Walker – all ingredients to allow an upset over Penn State. The thing that could completely wipe out all those positive factors is if the Badgers don’t game plan to stop likely the best tight end in the nation in Tyler Warren who almost single-handedly help the Nits win at USC with 224 receiving yards. For the year Warren leads the team with both 40 receptions and 513 yards.
Big Jeff’s Call: I know first-hand what a huge home field advantage a night game at Camp Randall will give Wisconsin. I think Penn State is really good but don’t consider them Top 5 mostly due to lack of enough play makers to support star TE Tyler Warren. This makes +6.5 points to Wisconsin way too much for my taste so I will take the Badgers and the points and would not be surprised if they win outright. This makes this my LOCK CITY PICK OF THE WEEK. Penn State 24 Wisconsin 21.
MICHIGAN -4 vs. Michigan State
Two teams going in opposite directions. Michigan is 4-3 and 2-2 and dropped out of the Top 25 with two straight losses and if they loss at home to Michigan State they could go from National Champs to shockingly not making a bowl game, making this almost a must win.
Under star running back Kalel Mullings (6.1 ypc) Michigan is 7th in the Big Ten in rushing but third to last in total offense with the worst passing game in the Big Ten at 128 yards/game. Michigan’s biggest issue is we are approaching game 8 and Michigan still doesn’t have a quarterback they can count on to produce even average production. Maybe most disappointing the talented Michigan defense is just 10th in the Big Ten in yards given up.
Michigan State thumped Iowa at home 32-20 as an underdog last week and saw quarterback Aidan Chiles emerge having his best game by far throwing for 256 yards, just one interception and running for 51 yards as well. Sparty has the 13th best Big Ten offense and 9th on defense but are playing much more physical upfront as the year moves along.
Why Michigan can cover: Lean on the defense to generate turnovers from Michigan State which is still -6 in turnover margin for the year under young QB Aidan Chiles. And then go back to leaning more strongly on the run game getting Kalel Mullings the ball up to 25 times or more which was a winning formula against both USC and Minnesota. Get ahead and use the home crowd to win this rivalry game.
Why take the points with Michigan State: The Spartans are a more well-balanced team than Michigan and is building confidence under first-year coach Jonathan Smith. Their offensive line held up well vs Iowa which should mean they should hold up well against Michigan’s talented defensive front. Plus, Michigan State has taken it on the chin the last couple years vs the Wolverines and will be highly motivated to take advantage of Michigan’s struggles.
Big Jeff’s Call: Given how offensively challenged Michigan has become, this game comes down to Aidan Chiles avoiding bad turnovers. I think he is progressing enough where he will avoid more than one turnover allowing the Spartans to cover +4 and I like them to win the game outright in a very close game. Michigan State 21 Michigan 18.
