Week 10 saw Ohio State and Ryan Day getting a big win over Penn State and James Franklin, Indiana rolling over Michigan State and Oregon beating Michigan to both stay unbeaten, and big wins by Minnesota, Iowa, UCLA, Washington and Northwestern. Many teams are fighting just to get to six wins to make a bowl game. Let’s get into our Week 10 Big Ten football top storylines …
Big Jeff’s Week 10 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Ten Power Rankings following Week 10
1. James Franklin can’t get it done vs Buckeyes (AGAIN) but new playoff offers rare chance to redeem themselves.
The storyline was familiar. Penn State under James Franklin was 1-9 against Ohio State and 1-13 against Top 5 teams. Franklin is now 1-14 against Top 5 teams, and eight of those losses have been to Ohio State so both stats are tied close together. Regardless, at this point Franklin’s reputation remains that he wins lots of games against teams he should beat, but almost always comes up short in the biggest games.
Under the prior four-team playoff system, given Penn State’s weak schedule that likely won’t include an AP Top 25 win, the Nittany Lions would be virtually eliminated from playoff contention. But this is a new era and assuming Penn State wins out in their final four games, they will almost certainly make the 12-team field and potentially re-write the script for this season. The hardest game will be the 2nd to last game at surging 6-3 Minnesota.
The challenge for Penn State though, is their lack of enough offensive weapons at wide receiver and over reliance on tight end Tyler Warren needs to be overcome to beat a top team. Other than the pick six touchdown against Ohio State, their offense could only generate six points on two field goals. And you have to also question how battle tested the Nittany Lions will be based on that easy schedule. The story on the season is not over but there is little margin for error.
2. Ohio State guts out win at Penn State putting Ryan Day’s critics in their place (for now).
No other college coach has more pressure on them than Ryan Day. Only Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer comes close in his first year replacing the legendary Nick Saban. His record at Ohio State is 63-9 with an .875-win percent which is second-best of any Ohio State coach (with minimum 20 games) and second only to Urban Meyer’s .902-win percent (83-9). Coming into this season, Day had the highest Division 1 coaching winning percentage at .875, and the next closest was Georgia’s Kirby Smart at .855 who owns two National Championships. The bar is obviously very high.
It’s National Title or Bust for Ohio State and Ryan Day! Or is it? – Big Jeff’s Football
Coming into this game, Day was 2-6 against teams ranked in the Top 5 of the coach’s poll, which included two what some consider as “unforgivable” losses to Michigan the last two seasons. Two of the other losses were to teams that eventually won a National Title (Alabama in 2020 and Georgia in 2022).
Ohio State played with true grit in this game with a remade offensive line and found themselves down 10-0 in the first quarter in a very hostile environment in Happy Valley. They won the battle in the trenches, found their running game, and pulled out the 20-13 win which puts them right back in position to make it to the Big Ten Championship game and try to avenge their 1-point loss to #1 Oregon.
Since I think the scrutiny on Day is way overblown and he has been quite unlucky in a few of those Top 5 matchups, I am glad to see him get this win and at least for now get some credit for being a good head coach.
3. Indiana crushes Michigan State and now we get to see how much the playoff committee respects field performance vs. brands.
Indiana is going to go through an entire season likely playing just one AP Top 25 team — in three weeks at #3 Ohio State. Under bold coach Curt Cignetti, since about week three they have been the darlings of all of college football and at 9-0 have the best opening record in program history. And they are doing it in dominating fashion.
On Saturday, they gave up a point in the first quarter for the first time this year in addition to being behind for the first time finding themselves in a first quarter 10-0 hole at Michigan State. Many probably thought, OK this is Indiana. Certainly, they are going to falter at some point. The Hoosiers said, “not so fast my friends” and proceeded to rattle off 47 unanswered points in dominating fashion to win easily 47-10.
IU jumped from #13 to #8 in the AP Poll finally getting some true respect from the AP voters, who obviously just can’t get over the fact this is Indiana football after all, and the schedule has been really weak. In fact, in my Big Ten power rankings, the highest rated team Indiana has faced is #8 Washington. But the domination speaks for itself.
So now we will see how the playoff committee values on field dominance vs. pre-conceived perceptions on teams based on their brand and past success. It will be fascinating and sure to generate much debate.
4. USC in jeopardy of not making a bowl which could put Lincoln Riley on the hot seat.
Lincoln Riley was head coach at Oklahoma for five years and went 55-10 that included two playoff appearances and Top 10 final AP Poll appearances in all five years. When Riley was hired by USC it was considered a “home run” hire by almost everyone.
Early returns were good as Riley rode a Heisman Campaign from quarterback Caleb Williams in year one to a 11-3 record and #12 finish. Year two saw a big drop off as USC went 8-5 despite Williams returning for his final year. Now this year, with USC losing late to Washington 26-21 the Trojans are 4-5 overall and 2-5 in the Big Ten after losing all five games after leading in the fourth quarter. This makes Riley an aggregate 23-13 at USC with more losses within two and a half years at USC as he had in all five years at Oklahoma.
USC has gone from hopeful Big Ten title contenders to a team with a risk of not getting to six wins and a bowl game. USC will need two wins from games including home vs Nebraska, at UCLA and home vs #10 Notre Dame. Not making a bowl might put Riley on the hot seat but I think USC wants Riley to work out and recruiting will play a major roll in how much heat there is.
Right now, according to Rival.com (link below), USC is 9th in the nation and 2nd in the Big Ten for the 2025 recruiting cycle. I think good recruiting will help protect Riley, but it would help to make a bowl game to allow him to further develop this young team.
2025 Big 10 Football Recruiting Team Rankings
5. Nebraska looked like a lock for a bowl game after 6 games but now it’s a big question mark.
After six games, Nebraska was 5-1 and looking good behind a tough defense and a five star quarterback in Dylan Raiola who looked sharp and up to the task in his early games. Breaking their streak of not making a bowl in seven years seemed like a lock. Then there was the embarrassing 56-7 loss at Indiana, followed by an encouraging 21-17 close call loss at #3 Ohio State, and then this week losing 27-20 to an UCLA team that was 1-4 in Big Ten play coming in.
This roller coaster ride has Cornhusker fans dazed and confused and dismayed quite frankly that under this Matt Rhule coaching staff just making a bowl will seem like a major achievement. It shouldn’t be this hard, especially with a schedule that is relatively easy. And now their star quarterback might be injured as well.
Nebraska currently has the 19th rated recruiting class for the 2025 cycle, so Rhule and his staff have developed some momentum but it’s vital the Huskers make a bowl game to show they are on the upswing and their future is strong. Next up is at struggling 4-5 USC. Then home vs. Wisconsin and the finish at Iowa. Nebraska might be favored vs. Wisconsin but will be underdogs in the other two. The pressure is on Rhule and staff to get it done.
6. Oregon wins at the Big House to assure the #1 ranking in the first 12-team playoff rankings release.
The Ducks took care of business winning at Michigan 38-17, which will make them the consensus to be ranked #1 in the first 12-team ranking release set for Tuesday’s election day. It was a typical strong performance for Oregon as they outgained the Wolverines 470 yards to 270, and the Ducks also held the edge in rushing with 176 yards to 105.
The only negative is star receiver Tez Johnson got hurt in the first quarter but seniorTraeshon Holden stepped up having a huge game with six receptions for 149 yards. Oregon continues to look like the most complete team in the Big Ten and in the nation.
7. The Gophers boat is riding along with 4th straight win making them the 3rd hottest Big Ten team.
At the end of week 5, Minnesota was 2-3 overall and 0-2 in the Big Ten and I had them ranked as the 14th best team in the conference. In week 6, Minnesota came from behind to win at USC and now has rattled off four Big Ten wins in a row capped by a 25-17 win at #24 Illinois on Saturday. If it wasn’t for unbeatens (and 9-0), Oregon and Indiana we would say the Gophers are the hottest team in the Big Ten.
It was a very tight game against Illinois with neither team up by more than seven until a 46-yard field goal with 1:52 left that made the final score 25-17. Key to the win was the Gophers winning the turnover battle 2-0, the rushing battle 150 to 126 and making four field goals of 20, 45, 38 and 46 yards, while Illinois missed a field goal. The Gophers and PJ Fleck are doing all the little things right to win games.
At 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Big Ten, I have the Gophers rated 6th best in the Big Ten right behind Iowa and they have a legit chance to go 9-3 and have a special season. They finish at struggling Rutgers, home vs #6 Penn State and at Wisconsin. Not an easy path but all winnable games as well.
8. Iowa thumps Wisconsin and both teams are going in different directions.
When Wisconsin meets Iowa it’s always a good old fashioned, physical slugfest. You can pretty much always count on a low scoring, one score game into the fourth quarter. That is not what happened Saturday night in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes ran all over the Badgers, literally, outgaining them 330 to 124 yards rushing with Iowa averaging 6.2 yards/carry in a 42-10 dominating win that is their biggest over Wisconsin since 1968.
This was just shocking. After the first quarter, Iowa only attempted 5 total passes and just 10 for the entire game. Big Ten leading rusher Kaleb Johnson had 135 yards and 3 touchdowns while Wisconsin QB Braedyn Locke had another spotty performance going 15-29 for only 137 yards and two more killer interceptions. For the year Locke is completing 57% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and as many interceptions. Wisconsin’s once vaunted defense gave up 423 yards to Iowa and 42 points.
At 5-4, Wisconsin has an off week before playing #1 Oregon, then at Nebraska and a final home game with surging Minnesota. With the way they are playing, a 6th win to qualify for a bowl game is not a certainty. Meanwhile Iowa is 6-3 and with games at UCLA, at Maryland and home vs Nebraska could win 8 or 9 games.
9. UCLA is back from the dead with big road win and a bowl berth is there for them.
On October 12, UCLA blew a 10-0 halftime lead at home losing 21-17 to Minnesota for their 5th straight loss. They were 1-5 overall and 0-3 in the Big Ten and Bruins fans had to wonder if first year coach DeShaun Foster was in over his head. But the record was deceiving. The cumulative records of those first six teams currently stand at 41-11 and included #1 Oregon, #6 Penn State and #15 LSU. It was a brutal early stretch.
UCLA has continued to play hard and pulled the upset Saturday on the road at Nebraska 27-20 for their second straight Big Ten win to pull to 3-5 on the year. They finish the year with four unranked teams and three of them at home – vs Iowa, at Washington, vs USC and vs Fresno State. The combined record of those teams is 19-16.
It won’t be easy, but this team now has some real momentum and most important it is starting to remove those doubts that Foster can’t get the job done at UCLA.
10. Purdue loses to Northwestern in likely final chance to win a 2nd game putting coach Ryan Walters job in jeopardy.
After starting the year with a win, Purdue lost for the seventh straight game to Northwestern 26-20 in overtime. This may have been the last chance the Boilermakers had to win a game this year. They finish at #3 Ohio State, home vs #6 Penn State, at Michigan State and home against #8 Indiana. Michigan State is likely the only viable potential win.
It hasn’t been just the losses but what has happened within those losses that has put more heat on second-year coach Ryan Walters. Purdue gave up 424 yards of offense to the Big Ten’s worst rated offense in the Big Ten. The Wildcats average just 288 yards/game and in the prior week at Iowa the Wildcats gained just 163 yards.
Purdue was able to get the game into overtime, but they started with the ball and had a 4th and 5 from the 20-yard line and instead of kicking a field goal, decided to go for it and had an incomplete pass. It took Northwestern just two plays to go 25 yards for the game winning touchdown.
The only thing that might save Walters would be recruiting momentum but currently Purdue ranks last in the Big Ten with their 11 commitments according to Rivals.com. The 11 commits are the lowest of any school and may reflect players reluctance to commit to a program whose coach may no longer be there. I would be very surprised if Purdue does not make a move by the end of the season to get a head start on hiring a new coach.
