Each week Big Jeff will give my picks for all Big Ten conference games and the one I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” pick of the week. Football is all about two things – Matchups and Motivation (which includes the team’s mental state) – and that is the key criteria I use in deciding my picks. Vegas is great at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise but let’s get to it starting with a quick review of last week.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (after Week 12)
- Last Week: 4-3 vs Spread; Won “Lock City” pick
- Year-to-Date: 36-27-1 vs Spread; 4-5 in “Lock City” picks of week
Week 12 Pick Summary
- WASHINGTON -3.5 vs. UCLA (Away) – Friday Night – The Pick: UCLA Lost
- #2 Ohio State -28.5 at NORTHWESTERN – The Pick: Ohio State Lost
- ILLINOIS -2.5 Michigan State – The Pick: Illinois (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week) Won
- #4 Penn State -28.5 at PURDUE – The Pick: Purdue Lost
- USC -9 vs. Nebraska – The Pick: Nebraska Won
- MARYLAND -5.5 vs. Rutgers – The Pick: Rutgers Won
- #1 Oregon -14 at WISCONSIN – The Pick: Wisconsin Won
Big Jeff’s Week 12 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Big Jeff’s Football
Big 10 Football Mid-Season Report Card – Big Jeff’s Football
Here are the games for Week 13: (Odds by ESPNBET on 11/20/24).
Week 13 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week
Big Ten Conference Games (8)
- MICHIGAN STATE -13.5 vs. Purdue – Friday Night – The Pick: Michigan State
- #2 OHIO STATE -13.5 at #5 Indiana – The Pick: Indiana
- #25 Illinois -1 RUTGERS – The Pick: Rutgers LOCK CITY Pick of the Week
- Iowa -6.5 MARYLAND – The Pick: Iowa
- #4 Penn State -12.5 MINNESOTA – The Pick: Minnesota
- MICHIGAN -10.5 Northwestern – The Pick: Michigan
- NEBRASKA -2.5 Wisconsin – The Pick: Nebraska
- USC -4.5 UCLA (home) – The Pick: UCLA
MICHIGAN STATE -13.5 vs. Purdue – Friday Night
It has been a disaster season for Purdue who is 1-9 and 0-7 in the Big Ten. Coach Ryan Walters job is obviously in jeopardy, and he is unlikely to retain his job. And it doesn’t help that Purdue’s biggest rival Indiana is 10-0 and on the brink of making the 12-team playoff. It’s hard to see Purdue’s staff locked in on this game vs. thinking of their futures and the same for the players given their chance to consider getting into the transfer portal. To be fair though, Purdue has probably had the toughest schedule in the Big Ten.
Michigan State meanwhile is 4-6 overall and on a 3-game losing streak. But they have a ton to play for needing just to beat the worst in the Big Ten Purdue at home and then next week at home vs. 6-4 Rutgers to become bowl eligible, which will be important for the extra practices for the young Spartans.
Why Michigan State Can Cover: Purdue has by far the worst defense in the Big Ten ranking last in both yards given up at 456/game and points per game of 38.9 with the next worst team (Maryland) at 29.2 points/game. One of the Spartans relative strengths is their pass offense which is 9th in the Big Ten at 231 yards/game, going against Purdue’s 2nd worst in the Big Ten pass defense giving up 252 yards/game.
Purdue also has the worst Big Ten rush defense but Michigan State struggles to run the ball at 15th in the Big Ten and 115 yards/game. So, the opportunity is throwing the ball on Purdue which has risk since QB Aidan Chiles is better at throwing interceptions to other teams than throwing TDs (10 TDs, 11 INTs). As with all Michigan State games this year, limiting turnovers where the Spartans are -9 for the year (worst in the Big Ten and 122nd in the nation) will be key to win and cover.
Michigan State also will be highly motivated to win their final two games to secure a bowl berth.
Why take the points with Purdue: With the exception of Michigan State’s win over Iowa 32-20 four weeks ago, here are the Spartans points scored going back six games in order of most recent to oldest – 16, 10, 17, 10, 7, 19. That is an average of 13.2 points/game. Michigan State’s offense is only 13th in the Big Ten in total offense and 15th in points per game at 19.4. Despite, Purdue’s bad defense, they have a chance to limit the Spartans scoring, especially if they can get a few turnovers that MSU tends to have.
Then it comes down to how much can Purdue score where they are also last in the Big Ten at 17.2 points/game and 3rd to last in Big Ten offense. On the plus side, Purdue’s schedule has been brutal and the last 5 games when not playing a top 5 team (Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State), they scored 49 vs Illinois in a double overtime game and 20 points vs. a good Northwestern defense. It’s not unreasonable to think Purdue can score about their average of 17 points, requiring the Spartans challenged offense to score more than 30.
Big Jeffs Call: Where are the Purdue coaches and players heads at? Are they focused on this game or their futures? Can Michigan State limit their turnovers? Tough call but my guess is Purdue won’t be very focused and Michigan State will be highly motivated to have a big game but know they can win without being too risky with the football. I assume Chiles has only one turnover allowing Sparty to cover. Michigan State 34 Purdue 14.
#2 OHIO STATE -13.5 at #5 Indiana
Indiana is 10-0 and ranked #5 and is the talk of college football. It’s been a magical season, and things are teed up as good as possible for IU. They are coming off a bye week to get healthy and scout the Buckeyes and playing Ohio State a week before the Buckeyes most important game of every year against rival Michigan. But they have not beat Ohio State since 1988 (36 years).
Meanwhile, the 9-1 Buckeyes offensive line suffered their second devastating injury of the year when center Seth McLaughlin tore his Achilles in practice this week and is out for the season. This was in addition to losing left tackle and potential first round pick Josh Simmons against Oregon earlier this season. This will require Ohio State to reshuffle their line yet again making this a major question mark for the Buckeyes.
The other big factor here is the need for Indiana to play well and keep the game close if they were to lose, otherwise it could risk a playoff berth given the Hoosiers very weak schedule. Ohio State has pressure as well not to suffer a second loss and lose the chance to make the Big Ten championship game.
Statistically both these teams are very similar in the Big Ten:,
- Total Offense: Indiana 1st @ 453 yards/game; Ohio State 2nd @451 yards/game
- Pass Offense: Indiana 4th; Ohio State 5th
- Rush Offense: Ohio State 3rd; Indiana 4th
- Total Defense: Ohio State 1st @ 251 yards/game; Indiana 2nd @256 yards/game
- Pass Defense: Ohio State 1st; Indiana 7th
- Rush Defense: Indiana 1st; Ohio State 2nd
Why Ohio State Can Cover: Ohio State should be able to get pressure on Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke like Michigan did the second half against IU. OSU has similar talent upfront on defense as Michigan but has much more depth. On offense, if the OSU line gives Will Howard time that spells trouble for Indiana as they have not faced a receiver core anywhere close to what Ohio State offers and especially receiver Jeremiah Smith who is a bad matchup for IU’s smaller cornerbacks.
Another player not mentioned when people talk about this game is Ohio State safety Caleb Downs. He is a unicorn and the best defensive player in this game. Expect Downs to make his presence known in a big way in this game either blitzing or in his elite open field tackling.
With that banged up line though, I expect Ohio State to run more than typical in this game, along with quick early passes to later open up the downfield passing game more.
Why take the points with Indiana: This latest injury to Ohio State at the center position can’t be underestimated. The center is the leader of the line and McLaughlin was playing at a high level while seeing his draft prospects improve. He also was a team leader, so this hurts OSU in multiple ways.
Even before this injury, I felt the biggest risk for Ohio State in this game is Indiana’s very talented defensive line winning their battle up front and not giving QB Will Howard the time he needs to take advantage of OSU’s elite receiver core. Indiana’s Mikail Kamara has 9 sacks and is the number one rated Big Ten lineman for pass rushing productivity according to PFF. They also have disruptive defensive tackles CJ West and James Carpenter. IU can pull the upset if their defensive line wins the battle upfront disrupting the OSU offense and getting them off schedule and they are very capable of doing this.
If Indiana’s offensive line gives Kurtis Rourke time, then I expect they can take vertical shots at OSU downfield toward the sidelines like Oregon did avoiding the elite safeties of Ohio State up the middle. If he doesn’t have that time, it will be hard for Indiana to move the ball well since OSU is very strong against the run and deep on the defensive line.
Finally, for IU there’s a chance OSU QB Will Howard will make a key mistake or two like he has done in the Buckeyes two other biggest games against Oregon and Penn State.
Big Jeff’s Call: This game will come down to the re-configured OSU offensive line against the Indiana defensive line. If IU whips OSU upfront here, they likely can’t just cover but win the game. If OSU can at least stalemate the IU defensive line, OSU’s star’s like WR’s Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Safety Caleb Downs will be too much to overcome. I think Ohio State gets good enough play from their line to pull out a close win, but Indiana covers. Ohio State 30 Indiana 20.
#25 Illinois -1 RUTGERS
Rutgers is 6-4 and “saved” their season by beating Minnesota and Maryland the last two weeks after suffering a 4-game losing streak. They have a good chance to go 8-4 and make a really nice bowl game with remaining games vs. Illinois and at 4-6 Michigan State.
Illinois won an important game vs. Michigan State last week and at 7-3 are in a very similar spot as Rutgers is with two winnable remaining games at Rutgers and at Northwestern. They could go 9-3 and position themselves for a high-level bowl game as the 5th best Big Ten team.
Why Illinois Can Cover:
Illinois has the 5th best overall record in the Big Ten and is tied for 5th also in the conference standings at 4-3 with Iowa and Minnesota. From a stats perspective though, Illinois is in the average to below average range at 10th in overall Big Ten offense and 14th in defense. This says the Illini does most of the little things needed to win right and are good at winning tight, one-score games with 3-1 record this year in such games.
The other key thing for Illinois has been the play of junior quarterback Luke Altmyer who is completing a solid 62.4% of his passes but most importantly has an efficient 18 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions, which means he is making great decisions. Altmyer should have no issue handling the environment at Rutgers. Plus, Rutgers defense gives up the 2nd most yards in the Big Ten.
Why take the points with Rutgers: Rutgers offense has really gotten on track the past 4 games scoring 32, 20, 26 and 31 points for an average of 27.3 points. They are a surprising 8th in Big Ten total offense (382 yards/game), with a strong running game that is 5th in the Big Ten (169/game). Illinois defense is just 14th in the Big Ten and also 14th in rushing defense so Rutgers should have very good success running the ball with senior RB Kyle Monangai who has 1,028 yards rushing at 5.2/carry.
These teams both take care of the ball with both owning a +4 turnover margin so that is a push. I prefer taking the teams that can run the ball better, which in this case is clearly Rutgers.
Big Jeff’s Call: Rutgers is at home, they run the ball better than Illinois and their offense has been able to score points the past 4 games. I will take that to overcome Illinois’ ability to win one score games. Rutgers 27 Illinois 20.
Iowa -6.5 MARYLAND
Maryland enters this game struggling at 4-6 overall and 1-6 in the Big Ten good for second to last. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games with those losses coming by 14, 27, 25, 21 and 14 points last week vs. Rutgers. To make a bowl, Maryland will need to beat both Iowa and at #4 Penn State to get to six wins.
Iowa meanwhile is 6-4 and tied for 5th in the Big Ten at 4-3 and is coming off a bye week after a disappointing 20-17 road loss to UCLA breaking a two-game winning streak. It’s been quite an up and down year for Iowa characterized by quarterback injuries and passing struggles. The latest is Brendan Sullivan who took over for Cade McNamara in a game six win over Northwestern but is now likely out for the season with an ankle injury. It is unclear if Iowa will start McNamara or backup quarterback Jackson Stratton who played a good amount of the second half against UCLA.
Why Iowa Can Cover: On offense, Iowa is significantly improved from last year standing 6th in the Big Ten in scoring at 29.4 points/game (15.4 points in 2023), but in total offense are 12th at 347 yards/game. Similar to prior years though, Iowa struggles in the pass game ranking 2nd to last in the Big Ten but lead the league in rushing at 208 yards/game led by Caleb Johnson who has 1,328 yards on the season at 7.1 yards/carry.
It’s a unique matchup since Maryland is actually good against the run rating 8th in Big Ten run defense at 115 yards/game. They are weakest and last in the Big Ten in passing defense but that is where Iowa is weakest. For Iowa to cover we would assume Iowa and Caleb Johnson has success running the football which they were able to do on the road at Minnesota but were not in road losses at Ohio State, Michigan State and UCLA.
We know Iowa has a good defense and are 6th in the Big Ten giving up 18.2 points/game. Though their defense is not as good as prior years, their zone passing defense will make Maryland’s Big Ten best passing offense and quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. be patient to work the ball down the field hoping for mistakes. Edwards has thrown 9 interceptions this year.
Why take the points with Maryland: Iowa is not the same team on the road as at home. They are 1-3 on the road in the Big Ten and have lost 3 in a row. As stated above, Maryland is pretty good against the run (8th in the Big Ten) which is imperative to beat the Hawkeyes and provides great hope for the Terps.
Maryland does play better at home but also can lay an egg like they did in a 37-10 home loss to Northwestern. It is hard to predict where Maryland’s head will be at due to their inconsistencies. It will be important to get off to a good start to build confidence.
Big Jeff’s Call: I just don’t trust Maryland and coach Mike Locksley and their recent losses have not been close games. 6.5 points to cover for Iowa on the road is a lot but they are scoring much better this year than prior years (29.4 points this year vs. 15.4 points last year). I think the Iowa defense will also get a couple turnovers. Take Iowa and the points. Iowa 30 Maryland 20.
#4 Penn State -12.5 MINNESOTA
After a rough start to their Big Ten season losing their first two, Minnesota has managed to win several one score games (USC, UCLA, and Illinois) and at 6-4 overall and 4-3 in the Big Ten they really are about where they should be record wise. But they have a tough finish with this Penn State game then at Wisconsin in game 12.
Penn State is ranked #4 and is 9-1 and despite that high ranking is kind of flying under the radar due to a schedule that by the end of the year will only include two ranked teams (Illinois and Ohio State). Given that weak schedule though, I really think to make the playoffs Penn State must win their last two at Minnesota and home vs Maryland. Otherwise, their 10-2 record will pit them against a bunch of two loss SEC teams that will have better schedules and better wins to impress the playoff committee.
Why Penn State Can Cover: This team is really good on both sides of the ball and only are missing difference making wide receivers. Due to a couple recent strong offensive games, Penn State actually now leads the Big Ten in total offense at 454 yards/game, though they are 4th in Big Ten scoring at 33.0 points/game. They are second in Big Ten rushing as well behind their two talented running backs.
On defense the Nittany Lions are 3rd in Big Ten total defense giving up 273 yards/game but are 2nd in scoring defense at 13.6 points/game. Both their rushing and passing defense are in the Top 5 in the Big Ten so they have no glaring weakness. Amazingly, Minnesota is 2nd to last in Big Ten rushing at 104.7 yards/game.
Therefore, key to the win and cover for PSU is containing QB Max Brosmer who has the Gophers 10th in Big Ten passing with 14 TDs and only 4 interceptions so he is making good decisions. According to PFF, the Nittany Lions are 8th in the nation in pass rush rate, while Minnesota is 55th in pass blocking. The Gopher offensive line vs the strong PSU pass rush, led by defensive end Abdul Carter who is second in the Big Ten with 8 sacks, will be key to the game.
Why take the points with Minnesota: Key to beating Penn State is standing up to their pass rush as outlined above but second is not letting star Tight End Tyler Warren beat them, forcing Penn State’s other players to step up. PSU lacks strong wide receivers so this will fall on their running backs.
Ohio State was able to contain Warren mostly due to having elite safety Caleb Downs frequently match up and account for him. Fortunately, Minnesota also has a star player who could do similar in star freshman safety Koi Perich, who the Gophers should leverage to contain Warren. Perich leads the Big Ten with 5 interceptions and ranks 13th in the nation and first in the Big Ten in Safety position coverage rate according to PFF.
Overall, Minnesota has a really good defense ranking 5th in Big Ten total defense and also 5th in scoring giving up only 17.7 points/game, so they are very capable of limiting Penn State scoring.
Big Jeff’s Call: The stakes are huge for Penn State since I don’t think they can afford a loss and make the playoffs. Minnesota has a really good defense and a safety in Koi Perich capable of helping contain Tyler Warren. That and the positive home environment will help Minnesota to cover but lose in a tight game. Penn State 20 Minnesota 17.
MICHIGAN -10.5 Northwestern
Michigan is 5-5, has lost four of their last five games, and with a road game at Ohio State to finish the year this game vs. Northwestern is essentially a “must win” for the Wolverines. Not making a bowl would be a major indictment as well of coach Sherrone Moore and his staff for the defending national champs.
Northwestern is 4-6 so must win their last two at Michigan and home vs Illinois to make a bowl game, which is important to further develop their young players.
Why Michigan Can Cover: It might be counter intuitive given Michigan’s high-level talent on defense, but these two teams look similar statistically on both sides of the ball.
- Total Offense: Michigan 17th @ 290 yards/game; Northwestern 18th @284 yards/game
- Pass Offense: Michigan 18th; Northwestern 16th
- Rush Offense: Michigan 8th; Northwestern 16th
- Total Defense: Michigan 11th; Northwestern 13th
- Pass Defense: Michigan 13th; Northwestern 15th
- Rush Defense: Michigan 5th; Northwestern 7th
Thus, the only big difference is Rushing Offense where Michigan is 8th in the Big Ten at 156 yards/game, while Northwestern is only 16th at 106 yards/game. Michigan would love to win this by simply just dominating the run game vs. Northwestern but the issue is the Wildcat rush defense and their front seven is really their biggest strength.
To cover the 10.5 then, Michigan must have some success throwing the ball behind QB Davis Warren who has continued to struggle with only 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on the year and since returning to the starting role has thrown for only an average of 142 yards/game in three games. The hope is the week off will help produce a more productive passing game and Michigan takes advantage of a strong home environment.
Why take the points with Northwestern: As highlighted above, Northwestern is very capable of containing the Michigan running game. Their front seven is strong and tough and Michigan should struggle to score.
How much can Northwestern score vs this talented Michigan defense? Running the ball is going to be very tough with the Cats 16th rated rush offense vs. the Wolverines 5th rated rush defense. Therefore, this game falls on QB Jack Lausch’s shoulders. Northwestern is a decent 53rd nationally in pass blocking according to PFF, while Michigan is first in the nation in pass rush stats. The Cats pass blocking will be key then.
Lausch has thrown for 250 and 201 yards the last two games so there are signs of success. But I think he will also need to use his legs to pick up some third downs and keep the Michigan defensive line off balance. He has had only modest success running however with 34 yards rushing the last two games (though college rushing stats include sacks).
Big Jeff’s Call: I just don’t see Northwestern scoring enough in this game to cover – especially against a team at home and fresh off a bye week. The caveat here is Michigan QB Davis Warren can’t turn the ball over like he is apt to do. I think he will be smart with the ball though knowing the Cats will struggle to score vs. his defense. Michigan 24 Northwestern 10.
NEBRASKA -2.5 Wisconsin
Two teams who are mostly a mess offensively and both fired their Offensive Coordinators before last week’s losses. Wisconsin is 5-5 overall but has lost 3 games in a row and needs to beat either Nebraska or home vs. Minnesota next week to get to six wins and bowl eligibility. This week Luke Fickell fired embattled OC Phil Longo who had run the offense in both seasons at Wisconsin for Fickell. Longo was not replaced per se and there are questions on who will be making the play calls for the Badgers.
Nebraska is also 5-5 and needing one more win for bowl eligibility but are on a 4-game losing streak with the last three all coming within one score. Their fans and possibly players may feel a little snake bit. Coach Matt Rhule brought in former Houston and West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen a couple week ago to his staff and then demoted his OC and named Holgorsen his new OC last week before the USC game. Nebraska did OK with 310 yards of total offense vs. USC but the offense was only able to score 13 points. Obviously, the Husker offense is in transition and will be hard to project.
Why Nebraska Can Cover: Wisconsin has major quarterback issues with Braedyn Locke completing just 55% of his passes and frequently throwing really bad interceptions and for the year has as many interceptions as he does touchdowns with 9. Wisconsin is only 14th in the Big Ten in passing and reliant on their run game that is a respectable 6th in the Big Ten at 169 yards/game.
Nebraska is perfectly equipped to stop what Wisconsin does best, with the 6th best Big Ten run defense (and 20th nationally) giving up 111 yards/game. They were able to contain Ohio State’s talented running back duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins a few weeks back. Expect the Huskers to do everything to stop the run and force Locke to beat them, which he has been unable to do this year, and could create some key turnovers.
Offensively Nebraska ranks 13th and is fairly well balanced (11th in passing and 13th in rushing) and I expect Holgorsen to try to simplify things and stay balanced vs. Wisconsin.
Why take the points with Wisconsin: Despite all the struggles at quarterback for Wisconsin, they still rank a middle of the road 9th in Big Ten offense at 363 yards/game. On the downside, in their 3-game losing streak they have scored 13, 10 and 13 points. You would think turnovers is the biggest issue with the lack of scoring but across those 3 losses Wisconsin has only had 4 total turnovers vs. 2 takeaways. This is better than I thought.
Looking deeper, the Badgers third down efficiency may be the biggest offensive issue with their last 3 games at 1-12, 2-11 and 7-18 on third downs vs. Oregon, Iowa and Penn State respectively. Wisconsin also is 99th in the country in red zone efficiency scoring 80.5% of the time. The hope is with a different play caller and a likely stronger commitment to the run, the Badgers can stay on schedule better and create shorter third down situations for Locke.
Also, Wisconsin’s defense against Oregon showed what they are capable of holding the third best offense in the Big Ten to only 16 points. Finally, Wisconsin has beat Nebraska 10 games in a row and the pressure is immense on the Huskers to break their long bowl-less streak.
Big Jeff’s Call: I think the Husker defense matches up very well with Wisconsin and will force Locke to win the game which I am not sure he can do. It will be low scoring and close though and could come down to a field goal. I would not bet this game though. Nebraska 23 Wisconsin 20.
USC -4.5 UCLA (home)
The two L.A. schools reside close to each other and are right next to each other in the Big Ten standings as well at 3-5. USC is 5-5 overall, and UCLA is 4-6 with both hoping to get to six wins for a bowl berth. USC has Notre Dame the last game so will want to get this win. If UCLA can win, they only need to beat Fresno State the last game to get to 6 wins.
USC beat Nebraska at home last week while UCLA laid an egg at Washington 31-19.
Why USC Can Cover: Not surprisingly USC has a good (but not great) offense, rating 5th in the Big Ten in total offense (438 yards/game) but near the bottom in defense at 15th in the Big Ten giving up 365 yards/game. All five losses have included USC blowing a fourth quarter lead so their record could easily be more like 7-3.
Lincoln Riley benched QB starter Miller Moss for Jayden Maiva last week and leaned into his run game more in the 28-20 win over Nebraska that saw them rush for 185 yards and 6.0 yards/carry on 31 attempts, which is something many USC followers have been clamoring for. Wood Marks led the way with 146 yards at 7.7 yards/carry. Maiava was pretty lose with the ball in his first start and though he threw just one interception there were at least 2 other passes that could have been picked off.
I expect USC to lean into that run game even more but that goes to the strength of the UCLA defense which is #4 in the Big Ten against the run giving up 101 yards/game. The USC offensive line vs a disruptive UCLA defensive line is probably key to the game.
Why take the points with UCLA: UCLA had won three in a row before stumbling against Washington last week, but they still outgained the Huskies 319 to 306 so their confidence will remain high and they know a win here will mean chance are high to make bowl game. Plus, they beat an archrival.
USC is only 12th in Big Ten pass defense giving up 233 yards/game and that is how UCLA moves the ball where they are 8th in Big Ten passing at 235 yards/game behind QB Ethan Garbers who has heated up as the year has progressed and his past 4 games has thrown 10 touchdowns with just 2 interceptions. UCLA remains last in Big Ten rushing despite seeing some recent improvement but Garbers playing well is imperative for the Bruins to win.
UCLA has a bad pass defense ranking 16th in the Big Ten but they have 8 takeaways the last 4 games so that my give USC some pause in relying on the pass vs. UCLA with a new quarterback in Maiava, and one who has a history of turning the ball over with 10 interceptions last year at UNLV.
Big Jeff’s Call: Do we trust new USC quarterback Jaden Maiava to turn the ball over or not? That is the key to this game. I am going to lean to Maiava making a couple bad pass decisions like he did vs. Nebraska enabling the Bruins to pull this one off and not just cover but win a very tight game. UCLA 27 USC 24.
