Round 1 of the playoffs was somewhat mixed results for the Big Ten but overall, very good for the conference. It opened with the Friday night game where the Indiana offense was a no show in a 27-17 loss to Notre Dame that was not remotely that close. This had many pundits screaming the committee got it wrong putting Indiana in the playoff. But that argument was regional with the South saying Indiana was a fraud and the North saying Indiana deserved to get in and blowouts are simply a part of most playoffs.
Then on Saturday, Penn State’s defense dominated in an easy 38-10 win over SMU. And most importantly for the Big Ten, Ohio State totally dismantled the SEC’s Tennessee Volunteers in a 42-17 beatdown that at least temporarily shut down SEC fans talk of how their conference got screwed. This was a huge win though for Big Ten perceptions.
I went just 1-2 in week 1 vs the spread (see results below). In round 2, we have Penn State against a Group of 5 school in Boise State as a big favorite and then Ohio State plays Oregon in the Rose Bowl which is a shame since I have been saying since Week 11 (see Hot Takes link below) that these are the two best teams in college football and only one will emerge from this quarterfinal game. Before getting into Round 2 picks, here is a brief review of year-to-date results.
Week 11 Big Ten Football Hot Takes (November 11) – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Playoff Round 1 Picks – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (after 1st Round of Playoffs and Year-to-Date)
- NOTRE DAME -7 vs. #10 Indiana (South Bend, IN) – Friday Night – The Pick: Indiana LOST
- #8 OHIO STATE -7 vs. #9 Tennessee – The Pick: Tennessee LOST
- #6 PENN STATE -8.5 vs. #11 SMU – The Pick: Penn State WON
Year-to-Date Results
- Playoff First Round: 1-2 vs Spread
- Big Ten Regular Season Year-to-Date: 45-35-1 vs Spread; 4-7 in “Lock City” picks of week
Here are the Big Ten games for Playoffs Round 2: (Odds by ESPNBET on 12/30/24).
Big Ten Football Playoff Round 2 Picks (2 Games)
- Fiesta Bowl: #6 Penn State -11.5 #3 Boise State – The Pick Penn State
- Rose Bowl: #8 Ohio State -2.5 #1 Oregon – The Pick Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl: #6 Penn State -11.5 Boise State – Tuesday Night
It was vital Penn State and James Franklin won in Round 1 as a heavy favorite over SMU. It is just as vital to the perception of the team and Franklin that they also win this Round 2 game as an 11.5-point favorite over a Group of 5 team in Boise State. Much has been made of how despite losing to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game and losing at home to Ohio State, Penn State has by far the easiest path of the three.
So, it’s very important for Penn State and Franklin to take advantage of this opportunity. If they lose, the season will be looked at by many Penn State fans as a disappointment since it included no true marquee wins when you consider the SMU playoff win was at home as a huge favorite.
Boise State meanwhile is a huge underdog, which is where they have strived in the past in similar circumstances. Expect Boise State to be hyper aggressive as the underdog vs. the Nittany Lions. The intrigue here is how will Heisman Finalist and nations leading rusher Ashton Jeanty (2,497 yards at 7.3 yards/carry and 29 TDs) perform vs. the 7th best rushing defense in the nation and if he can get enough help from the rest of the offense and the defense to potentially pull off the upset.
According to ESPN (link below), Penn State has the 27th best strength of schedule in the nation and 6th Strength of Record, while Boise State has only the 84th best strength of schedule but a very good11th strength of record.
2024 Resume College Football Power Index – ESPN
Let’s compare how these team’s rank statistically nationally.
- Total Offense: Penn State 440 yards per game (ypg) – 22nd in Nation; Boise State 470 ypg – 6th in Nation
- Rushing Offense: Penn State 201 ypg – 19th in nation; Boise State 251 ypg – 5th in Nation
- Passing Offense: Penn State 239 ypg – 54th in Nation; Boise State 220 ypg – 77th in Nation
- Points Scored: Penn State 33.9 points/game – 24th in Nation; Boise State 39.1. points/game – 3rd in Nation
- Total Defense: Penn State 280 yards per game (ypg) – 4th in Nation (3rd in Big Ten); Boise State 362 ypg – 61st in Nation
- Rushing Defense: Penn State 100 ypg – 7th in Nation; Boise State 115 ypg – 23rd in Nation
- Passing Defense: Penn State 180 ypg – 18th in Nation; Boise State 245 ypg – 109th in Nation
- Scoring Defense: Penn State 15.9 points/game – 7th in Nation; Boise State 21.9 points/game – 32nd in Nation
Why Penn State Can Cover: Boise State has only the 84th best strength of schedule in the nation and yet their defense is only ranked 61st in the nation in total yards given up at 362 yards/game. That is not good at all and shows how ridiculous it is that they are the 3rd overall seed in this thing. I think Penn State is going to absolutely run (and pass) all over this defense.
Now to be fair. Boise is giving up just 21.9 points/game good for 32nd in the nation. Many of the yards given up by Boise’s defense were made worse likely from them staking out a lead forcing opponents to throw the ball to try to catch up — the Broncos have just the 109th best pass defense. Even still, I don’t see Boise State slowing down a well-balanced Penn State offense ranked 22nd in the nation.
The Nittany Lions run the ball very effectively with the running back duo of Nicholas Singleton (928 yards @ 6.4 yards/carry) and Kaytron Allen (892 yards @ 4.8 yards/carry). And junior quarterback Drew Allar has thrived this year under new Offensive Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who has helped elevate his game with Allar completing 68.5% of his passes with 21 TDs and just 7 interceptions.
Allar’s average yards per pass has gone from 6.8 yards last year to 8.7 this year. And as he showed in the first round SMU playoff win, Allar also is very mobile and able to run when needed to pick up 3rd downs to keep drives alive. He has 289 rushing yards this year with 6 TDs.
So, Penn State clearly has the advantage at the most important position of the field – quarterback. Also, they have all-world tight end Tyler Warren as well allowing Kotelnicki to get very creative in using him making PSU hard to prepare for.
Then on the other side of the ball. Obviously, the strength of Boise State is their run game behind Ashton Jeanty ranking 5th in the nation at 251 yards/game but that goes against the Nittany Lion’s best defensive strength with the 7th best rushing defense in the nation giving up only 100 yards/game. I think Jeanty is going to get his yards and go over 100 yards but it’s not going to matter unless Boise can generate big plays from their passing game and keep up with the scoring I expect Penn State to put up.
Why take the points with Boise State: The pressure is all on James Franklin and his staff. If Boise State can run the ball well, control the clock and keep it close, it will put pressure on PSU, and they may play tight as they have tended to do under Franklin in the biggest games.
Boise is 109th in the nation in pass defense but the good news here is if they can relatively contain tight end Tyler Warren, Penn State does not have a strong wide receiver unit. This gives Boise a chance as long as they don’t let the Penn State rushing attack dominate the game.
I also think the crowd may be more pro Boise State given the game’s location on the West Coast in Arizona and how it’s possible not as many Penn State fans will make the trip given they just had a home playoff game and the expectation they will win, meaning fans may save their dollars to attend the next round game in Miami.
Big Jeffs Call: I can’t see Boise being able to contain Penn State’s offense and despite my expectation Ashton Jeanty will have a good overall game it won’t be enough to keep up with PSU. I think the Nittany Lions pull away in the second half as their run game wears down the Broncos as the game progresses. James Franklin gets a big win and covers to advance to the semi-finals. Penn State 35 Boise State 21.
Rose Bowl: #8 Ohio State -2.5 Oregon
Oh what a difference a week makes. Before Round 1, many had Ohio State HC Ryan Day squarely on the hot seat (even though his Athletic Director didn’t) if they did not beat Tennessee given the bad season ending loss to Michigan. Tennessee fans were going to take over the Shoe, the Voles would beat the Buckeyes and they would carry the goal posts all the way back to Knoxville in a glorious “it just means more” SEC party.
Instead, the Buckeyes dismantled the Vols from the start staking out a 21-0 first quarter lead and dominated on both sides of the ball in a 42-17 blowout. It was the complete game that Buckeye fans have been waiting for. The Tennessee win did not eliminate the pressure on Day, but it definitely changed the dynamic on how fans view this Buckeyes team and catapulted them to be the 2.5 favorite over the #1 Ducks by Vegas.
Turning to the undefeated Ducks, the fact they are unbeaten and #1 and yet an underdog here will be fully leveraged by coach Dan Lanning to further motivate his team. In fact, given his nature, he probably loved to see they were underdogs to be able to play the proverbial “disrespect card”.
According to ESPN (link below), Ohio State has the 20th best strength of schedule in the nation and 5th Strength of Record, while Oregon has the 37th best strength of schedule and the #1 rated strength of record.
2024 Resume College Football Power Index – ESPN
Let’s compare how these team’s rank statistically nationally.
- Total Offense: Ohio State 427 yards per game (ypg) – 34th in Nation; Oregon 450 ypg – 14th in Nation
- Rushing Offense: Ohio State 168 ypg – 58th in nation; Oregon 172 ypg – 52nd in Nation
- Passing Offense: Ohio State 259 ypg – 34th in Nation; Oregon 278 ypg – 14th in Nation
- Points Scored: Ohio State 36.0 points/game – 12th in Nation; Oregon 35.9 points/game – 13th in Nation
- Total Defense: Ohio State 242 yards per game (ypg) – 1st in Nation; Oregon 302 ypg – 10th in Nation
- Rushing Defense: Ohio State 101 ypg – 8th in Nation; Oregon 126 ypg – 33rd in Nation
- Passing Defense: Ohio State 141 ypg – 1st in Nation; Oregon 176 ypg – 9th in Nation
- Scoring Defense: Ohio State 11.4 points/game – 1st in Nation; Oregon 17.8 points/game – 12th in Nation
Oregon vs Ohio State Round 2 is expected to be the best game of the 2nd round of the playoffs, and many feel the winner of this game is the favorite to win the National Championship.
Why Ohio State Can Cover: Ohio State’s major issue has been their offensive line after losing projected first round Left Tackle Josh Simmons early in the first Oregon game and then later in the season also losing All-American transfer Center Seth McLaughlin. After shuffling their line around a couple different times, they seemed to find a good lineup against a talented Tennessee defensive front based on how effective the offense was. If OSU gets a similar performance from their line against Oregon, it bodes well for OSU to advance.
Hopefully by now Ryan Day has learned that in big games you have to play smartly aggressive. He did not versus Michigan and paid the price but did vs Tennessee and the results were spectacular. I expect the Buckeyes to stay aggressive to take advantage of their elite wide receiver core led by All-American freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith.
The other key is the play of QB Will Howard who has had mostly good play in the biggest games but also has made critical mistakes that were key in the losses to both Oregon and Michigan. I don’t think Howard needs to outplay Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel but if he plays close to him and does not make major mistakes, I think Ohio State’s overall personnel is better than Oregon’s.
This team is coming off the big Tennessee win super confident and energized and that should carry over to this Oregon game as they hope to use revenge as a further motivating factor.
Why take the points with Oregon: Oregon has already beaten Ohio State once and with the Buckeyes the betting favorite you can bet coach Dan Lanning will have them highly motivated to win again.
In the first game, key to the win was Oregon converting big plays downfield going at cornerback Denzel Burke. Expect Oregon to game plan off that and continue to test the OSU secondary.
Oregon has the quarterback edge in that QB Dillon Gabriel has been more consistent in big games and less susceptible to big mistakes. The Ducks will plan to put a lot of pressure on Howard hoping to generate those mistakes. This could put pressure on their secondary though, so they need their cornerbacks to play well. And with Ohio State’s offensive line injuries, it’s important the Ducks win the battle upfront to contain the dynamic OSU offense.
It would also help if Oregon won the rushing battle which they did in the first game when Jordan James ran for 115 yards and Oregon ran for 155 overall. Dillon Gabriel’s mobility will play a roll like it did in the first game as he ran for 32 yards on 4 carries including a touchdown.
With two closely matched teams, Red Zone conversions will be a key. For the year, the Ohio State defense was #1 in the Big Ten in allowing opponents to score only 59.4% of the time, while Oregon was 6th in the Big Ten in offensive red zone conversions at 88.5%. Oregon needs to score touchdowns and not FGs when they get in the red zone which is an issue for most teams against the Buckeyes.
Big Jeff’s Call: Wow. What a matchup. Two teams who have few weaknesses and are very strong on both sides of the ball. OSU has the better overall defense ranked first in the nation, while Oregon boasts the better and more consistent offense ranking 14th in the nation.
Quarterback play will be key in this game. I think Ohio State has more overall talent than Oregon (but it’s close) and Will Howard will use the confidence coming off the Tennessee game to play close enough to Dillon Gabriel’s level to get OSU the win and cover in a great Rose Bowl game. Ohio State 31 Oregon 24.
