Ohio State vs Notre Dame on Monday night for the College Football Championship. The South’s worst nightmare. I am a mid-westerner born in Cincinnati and grew up living in both Wisconsin and Indiana and attended Indiana University. I am a lifelong Buckeye fan and moved to Atlanta in 2004 and very quickly learned the Southern/SEC fans HATED two non-southern teams the most. OHIO STATE and NOTRE DAME. When Ohio State lost championship games to both Florida (2016) and LSU (2017) in the 2010’s – boy did I take a lot of grief.
Most of Big Ten country hates Ohio State as well due to their big consistent success. And Notre Dame brings about a lot of mixed feelings as well throughout the country. But these are two true blue blood programs, with great coaching staffs who each have great stories in how they got here. That adds up for a very compelling matchup.
Before the playoffs started, I had Ohio State beating Georgia in the Championship Game. Before I go into the breakdown of the matchup and my pick, let’s review last week’s and my year-to-date Big Ten picking results that includes a 4-3 record for Big Ten teams in the playoffs.
College Football Playoff Semi-Finals Results
- Orange Bowl: #7 Notre Dame (13-1) -1.5 #6 Penn State (13-2) – The Pick: Penn State 24-21: LOST
- Cotton Bowl: #8 Ohio State (12-2) -5.5 #5 Texas (13-2) – The Pick: Ohio State 34-24: WON
Playoff and Year-to-Date Results:
- Playoffs Through the Semi-Finals (Big Ten teams only): 4-3 vs. Spread
- Big Ten Regular Season Year-to-Date: 45-35-1 vs Spread; 4-7 in “Lock City” picks of week
Championship Game Background
Ohio State
All football fans should know the story by now. Ohio State comes into the year with the best roster in college football. The “$20 million” roster that even Ohio State faithful like Urban Meyer call it the most talented OSU roster he can ever remember. Many labeled the season – “National Championship or Bust”. But people get the $20M part wrong. Most of that money was used to retain players that could have left for the NFL, not to buy new players, though OSU did bring in some very important transfers.
Early in the season, Ohio State loses a heartbreak one point game at Oregon and then loses as a huge favorite at home to Michigan in what many call the worst Buckeye loss in “the Game” ever. Many Ohio State faithful wanted coach Ryan Day to be fired right there. I can’t recall another coach with more pressure on him than Day after that loss. You learn the most about people and teams when they are down and face adversity.
Some thought Ohio State would crumble and not recover. Instead, they come out and totally dominate in the first two rounds of the playoffs vs. Tennessee (42-17) and Oregon (41-21) And then beat Texas (28-14) in the semi-finals with the unforgettable 83-yard strip sack and score with 2:13 left in the game by defensive end Jack Sawyer. The same player who ripped the flag away from the Michigan players trying to plant it at mid-field after the Michigan upset. The Buckeyes have been an aggressive and a totally different team these playoffs with an average 3-game winning margin of 20 points/game.
A win would fulfill the pre-season promise of this team and flip the script on both the OSU season and Ryan Day’s perception as a big-game coach, if for many that already hasn’t happened. Any coach winning a championship cements themselves as a truly great coach. The irony is many outside Ohio State will look at Day as at least among the best 2 or 3 coaches in America, but some Buckeye fans will still never feel that way until he solves his Michigan riddle.
Notre Dame
On the other side, Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman might have an equally surprising story in flipping the script on a season and perceptions. Notre Dame opened the season with high expectations ranking #7 and had a huge first game win at Texas A&M 23-13. Week 2 they were ranked #5 but inexplicably totally laid an egg at home to Northern Illinois 16-14. A non-Power 4 team who finished 7-5 in the regular season. This bad loss had most people eliminating Notre Dame from playoff contention and indicated despite a lot of promise as a head coach, Marcus Freeman still had a lot to learn.
Faced with that adversity, the Irish proceeded to rattle off 10-straight regular season wins mostly in dominant fashion with only one by less than double digits (31-24 vs #15 Louisville). They easily dispatched Indiana in playoff round 1, then in Round 2 they got the program and coach perception changer in beating #2 ranked Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 23-10.
It’s hard to even frame how HUGE of a win this was for the Irish program in finally vanquishing an SEC power team and big brand name in a big game, after coming up short in so many major bowl and playoff games over the yeasr. And it signaled Marcus Freeman had arrived as one of the best coaches in college football.
The storylines don’t even end there though as Marcus Freeman was also a former player and captain at Ohio State, who had even played in Championship games with the Buckeyes. And of course, Ohio State has beaten Notre Dame the last two years including last season’s last second fourth down Buckeye touchdown to win 17-14.
Right now, there are only 2 active coaches who have won National Championships – Georgia’s Kirby Smart and Clemson’s Dabo Swinney. The winner of this one will join those ranks.
Finally, it should be noted the last time the playoffs were expanded from two teams (in the BCS era) to four teams in 2014, Ohio State won the National Championship. This is the first year of the expanded 12-team field so it would be wild if OSU won again with the new format.
Big Jeff’s College Football Playoff Semi-Finals Picks – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Playoff Round 2 Picks – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Playoff Round 1 Picks – Big Jeff’s Football
(Odds by ESPNBET on 1/17/25).
College Football Playoff Championship Pick and Analysis: #8 Ohio State (13-2) -8 points vs. #7 Notre Dame (14-1)
According to ESPN (link below), including all three playoff rounds, Ohio State has the 2nd best strength of schedule in the nation and 3rd Strength of Record, while Notre Dame has the 16th best strength of schedule in the nation and 1st Strength of Record
2024 Resume College Football Power Index – ESPN
Let’s compare how these team’s rank statistically nationally.
- Total Offense: Ohio State 428 yards per game (ypg) – 30th in Nation; Notre Dame 405 ypg – 52nd in Nation
- Rushing Offense: Ohio State 163 ypg – 66th in nation; Notre Dame 211 ypg – 14th in Nation
- Passing Offense: Ohio State 265 ypg – 25th in Nation; Notre Dame 194 ypg – 102nd in Nation
- Points Scored: Ohio State 35.8 points/game – 12th in Nation; Notre Dame 37.0 points/game – 6th in Nation
- Total Defense: Ohio State 251 yards per game (ypg) – 1st in Nation; Notre Dame 298 ypg – 9th in Nation
- Rushing Defense: Ohio State 90 ypg – 3rd in Nation; Notre Dame 133 ypg – 41st in Nation
- Passing Defense: Ohio State 161 ypg – 1st in Nation; Notre Dame 165 ypg – 2nd in Nation
- Scoring Defense: Ohio State 12.2 points/game – 1st in Nation; Notre Dame 14.3 points/game – 2nd in Nation
Why Ohio State Can Cover
If Ohio State beats Notre Dame it will definitely be the hardest playoff path yet for a college football title. Beating AP ranked #8 and 10-2 SEC power Tennessee, AP #1 ranked Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and then AP #3 ranked Texas in their backyard at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. They also had to beat #8 ranked Indiana and #4 ranked Penn State just to make the playoffs. Yes, after their second loss to Michigan they benefitted from the field expanding to 12, but they still earned this.
I mention all this as well to combat the false narrative that an advantage Notre Dame has is they are better battle tested than Ohio State. OSU’s 2nd rated strength of schedule vs. Notre Dame’s 16th speaks against this. But Ohio State also had the one-point loss to Oregon (32-31) on the road, the win at Penn State (20-13), a tight home win over Nebraska (21-17), the 13-10 home loss to Michigan, and the barn burner semi-final 28-14 win over Texas.
That’s 5 tight games, so the notion OSU does not know how to play in and win tight games is not correct. Notre Dame is about equal in this aspect with give overall close games. Neither team has an advantage here.
Overall, Ohio State is deeper, healthier and has more overall talent – and importantly at key positions. Let’s go by group:
- Quarterback: Based on Will Howard’s strong playoff play, I call this a draw with Will Howard clearly the better thrower and Riley Leonard clearly the better runner. Both are experienced and great leaders.
- Offensive Line: Both teams have had decimating injuries but done an amazing job filling in replacements. I give a slight edge here to Ohio State as Notre Dame’s running backs are averaging just 3.3 yards/carry in the playoffs and I blame that on all the line injuries for the Irish, while Ohio State’s offense has mostly excelled in the playoffs behind their banged-up line, especially in pass blocking.
- Running Backs: Ohio State has the edge with their strong duo of TreVeyon Henders and Quinshon Judkins vs Notre Dame led by Jeremiyah Love who is beat up but still effective.
- Wide Receivers: Not even close. OSU has the best group in the nation led by Jeremiah Smith and two other future NFL caliber WRs (Egbuka and Tate).
- Defensive Line: Ohio State is clearly better though Notre Dame is still very good; behind Jack Sawyer and group OSU has the nation’s best run defense grade according to Pro Football Focus, the highest grade of any team since the 2019 Chase Young led Buckeyes. OSU’s entire line has thrived also with a 4-man pass rush in the playoffs.
- Linebackers: Both groups are strong, but i give a higher grade to Notre Dame here.
- Safeties: Both groups are excellent. I will call it a wash but many would argue Caleb Downs may be the best defensive player on the field but Xavier Watts for the Irish has been great too. Hard to call who is best.
- Cornerbacks: clearly give this edge to Notre Dame led by frosh CB Leonard Moore. This is the only Ohio State position group that you could call a relative weakness beyond their injured offensive line
Ohio State has the #1 ranked defense in the nation and are playing their best football of the season. They rank #3 against the run, #1 against the pass and are #1 in scoring defense. All 11 starters are expected to be playing in the NFL and they have unicorn Safety Caleb Downs who they are putting right in the middle of the field to cause havoc. He is the perfect antidote to how Notre Dame will want to run QB Riley Leonard a LOT in this game as a key to win. I expect Downs to shadow Leonard negating this advantage for the Irish.
On offense, Ohio State has been way less consistent and rank 30th in the nation in total yards, 66th in rushing and 25th in passing, but 12th in points/game. The problem for Notre Dame is this unit is playing their best football right now and have helped the Buckeyes have an average playoff winning margin of 20 points/game.
And Notre Dame has not faced many teams with strong passing game but the best they faced was USC who was #10 in the nation in pass offense, and they lit up the Irish defense for 557 total yards and 360 yards passing. OSU’s skill position talent is second to none and they have both receivers and running backs who are explosive and can take it the house at any time.
Notre Dame also loves to play man defense and play it more than any other team. That is where the OSU receiver talent and Will Howard really shines as they struggled to be explosive against Texas’ more zone-based scheme. Howard ranks second among all FBS QBs versus man coverage and star frosh WR Jeremiah Smith receiving grade is 3rd best in the Power 4 vs. man. Smith will get some chances to make big plays in this one since the expectation is Notre Dame may mix things up some but will play mostly man-to-man.
Why Notre Dame Can Cover: Or I should call this The Path to a Notre Dame Win
Notre Dame is a very well coached, confident and talented football team. But they do not have the firepower or star power of Ohio State. There is a path though to win this game (and to cover) but it is a fairly tight one. We already covered a lot of stats and aspects of the game so here is my take on the path to win.
- Notre Dame has to win the turnover battle by at least 1 and possibly 2: Will Howard has shown a capacity to make mistakes in big games like he did vs Oregon, Penn State and Michigan so the Irish need that “old Howard” to show up vs the one who played against Indiana and most recently Tennessee, Oregon and Texas
- Ohio State’s one relative weakness is their cornerbacks, and Riley Leonard is better at throwing outside the numbers where 11 of his 16 big throws have happened. – Notre Dame must find success there and key to that is their line executing well against the ferocious OSU pass rush that is 3rd in the nation in pressure rate (from PFF) at 40.9% despite not blitzing much – a challenge is the Irish pass protection all year rank only 82nd in the nation. Their line needs to play great.
- In the playoffs, Irish running backs are averaging just 3.3 yards/carry and that will be hard to change vs the Buckeye #1 run defense so Riley Leonard needs to be excellent in finding running opportunities to pick up 3rd downs and keep drives going. The challenge is I expect Safety Caleb Downs to shadow him so the Notre Dame staff will have to get creative.
- Slow the game down and limit Ohio State possessions. Try to turn this into a slog fest which Michigan was able to do. Milk the clock each play and try to get it late into the second half as a close game.
- The Irish have the 2nd best pass defense in the nation and need their great defensive backfield and best unit on the team play a great game: I expect Notre Dame to play to their strength and go mostly man-to-man and hope Howard makes some mistakes in the passing game which is definitely possible as the Irish excel at takeaways.
One final thing. It’s been said Notre Dame has “nothing to lose” in this game as the underdog and all the pressure is on Ohio State. That is half right. Ohio State does have a lot of pressure as they have all year and so keeping it close early is vital. BUT, Notre Dame has PLENTY to lose. You never can assume you will make it back into a Championship game again so when you have the opportunity to win a title you need to take advantage of it. Thie means there is plenty of pressure on the Irish as well.
Big Jeffs Call: I haven’t covered it in detail but believe both these head coaches and staffs are excellent and I see neither team with an advantage. With that, the game will come down to situational play calling and talent, where Ohio State simply has more depth and fire power than Notre Dame. And Ohio State has the best individual unit in their defense which has been playing at a Championship level since the Oregon loss and is the most certain aspect of this game.
The question then is how much can Notre Dame score? Without a couple turnovers I don’t see them being able to get to 20. Then you ask can the Irish hold the Buckeyes to under 20. With Notre Dame playing mostly man and the talent of Jeremiah Smith and crew, I just can’t see it. I think Notre Dame keeps it really close the entire half. Maybe it’s tie or a 3-point lead one way or the other.
But in the second half, Ohio State’s superior talent takes hold and they get a touchdown in the 4th quarter to stretch the lead to double digits where it stays. Ohio State wins and covers. Ohio State 31 Notre Dame 17.
