8 Truths about the 2024 Big Ten Football Season

Can you think of a better and more compelling Big Ten football season than the one we just experienced?

Big Jeff is 57 years old, and I can’t think of a better season in my lifetime. And it’s not because Ohio State helped the Big Ten win back-to-back National Championships combined with Michigan last year for the first time since Minnesota won three in a row back in the 1930’s. It’s more from the addition of the four former Pac 12 teams and all the great and compelling story lines across all 18 teams – some of which were positive and others not so much.

Everyone’s “truths” list would be different, and this could easily be 20 items long but what follows is Big Jeff’s most important and compelling truths and takeaways from this season – though not in order of importance. See far below where I flesh out each item.

Big Jeff’s 8 Truths about the 2024 Big Ten Football Season

1. ANY team in the Big Ten can make the college football playoffs: And it can happen within a year or two – 2024 Indiana showed the way.
2. The Big Ten WAS the Best in 2024: Move over SEC – in 2024, the Big Ten can claim they were the best football conference in America.
3. The Randomness of Schedules Will Strongly Impact Success: With 18 Teams and 9 conference games, unbalanced schedules will continue to strongly dictate team records, plus Big Ten championship game and playoff participants.
4. Home Run Coaching Hires Do Not Exist: Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell and USC’s Lincoln Riley are two more great examples.
5. The Coach with the Most Pressure has Changed: Entering 2024 it was Ohio State’s Ryan Day, but he proved he can win the biggest games, now that pressure and questions on big games all shifted to Penn State’s James Franklin in 2025.
6. THE GAME Does Mean Less but That is OK: in a 12-team playoff, the meaning of Michigan vs Ohio State has changed.
7. Oregon and Dan Lanning had a Great Year: despite losing in the first round of the playoffs, the Ducks won the Big Ten in their first year and are right on track.
8. Sherrone Moore’s First Year at Michigan was a Wild Roller Coaster Ride – he flunked the first part of the year, only to ace the end of the year.

2024 Big Ten Football Season Truths Breakdown

1) ANY team in the Big Ten can make the college football playoffs: And it can happen within a year or two – 2024 Indiana showed the way.

Let’s be clear.  In a 4-team field, making the playoffs for maybe half the Power 4 teams was a pipe dream.  Everything is much different in the 12-team field though. We all know the amazing story of Indiana and Curt Cignetti in year one, but do we really understand the magnitude of it.  Here are some crazy stats to show how bad Indiana has been:

• After a 3-9 season in 2023 under Tom Allen, Indiana went 11-1 including 8-1 in the Big Ten to be the #10 seed in the playoffs.
• Playing football since 1887, IU has more losses than any FBS team overtaking Northwestern in 2012 and 3^rd worst all-time winning %
• Have not had a coach with a winning record since 1947
• Have not won the Big Ten since 1967
• Have not won a bowl game since 1991
• No first round NFL draft pick since 1994
• Since 1994 (over 30 years) had only had 2 winning seasons within conference (2019, 2020)

In my lifetime, there is only one pretty close example to Indiana – which is Northwestern in 1995. Under coach Gary Barnett and led by linebacker Pat Fitzgerald, the Wildcats come out of nowhere to go from 4-6-1 in 1994 to 10-1 overall and 8-0 in the Big Ten to go to the Rose Bowl where they lost 41-32 to Keyshawn Johnson’s USC team to finish 10-2.

At the time Northwestern were the all-time losingest D1 football team. The magic of 1995 was their first winning season since 1971 (24 yrs), and first conference title since 1936. They broke 19-game losing streak to Michigan and 14-game streak to Notre Dame. The Cats were fortunate in avoiding #6 ranked Ohio State in the regular season. That season completely changed the thought on what is possible at Northwestern and was a program game changer. Indiana is hoping for the same.

It won’t be easy to repeat what both Indiana and Northwestern did but there are factors making a quick turnaround much more likely than the past in the Big Ten. The transfer portal makes flipping a roster way easier than the past. Players don’t need to sit a year in transferring to a new team so immediate playing time becomes a HUGE selling point coaches can leverage.

For the Big Ten, lucrative new TV contracts give the conference teams more money in revenue sharing to dole out to players to both stay in college another year or to transfer.

Can a Purdue and Barry Odom in 2025 come close to replicating Indiana’s success in getting a bunch of UNLV players to transfer over to the Boilers and hit the ground running? It’s possible, though the IU situation was pretty unique in that Curt Cignetti’s virtual entire staff came with him from James Madison and he had a ton of personnel who came over as well. Cignetti was able to execute a more experienced college “production over potential” type of roster with experienced players in key positions. Add in that Indiana had the ideal schedule easy to take advantage of this talent.

The bottom line is the Big Ten could get 4 or even 5 teams in the playoffs each year and with the right coach AND the right schedule any Big Ten team could make the playoffs.

2) The Big Ten WAS the Best in 2024: Move over SEC – in 2024, the Big Ten can claim they were the best football conference in America.

Until the last two seasons, the discussion of who was the best football conference wasn’t even a discussion.
Consider these stats through the 2022 season:

• From Florida’s 2006 championship win over Ohio State – the SEC had won 13 of 17 titles (including 7 in a row from ’06 to ’12)
• In that time, the ACC had 3 titles (FSU and Clemson with 2), and the Big Ten with just one (2014 Ohio State)
• Here’s a telling stat from “Big Jeff’s database”: in the past 10 NFL drafts (2015 to 2024) the SEC had 586 draft picks; Big Ten was second with 428 picks – that’s 158 or almost 16 less/year; the ACC had 352 picks, Pac 12 with 337 picks, and Big 12 with 273 picks.
• First round NFL Draft Picks: SEC first with 105, Big Ten 2nd with 59 then ACC 51 – that’s almost twice as much for the SEC.

The draft data supports the SEC wasn’t just winning titles, they had depth based on the NFL talent the conference was producing. Big Jeff is a big believer that to be a really good college team you have to have “NFL dudes”. Guys who can play on Sunday. The good news is while the SEC clearly produces the best NFL talent the Big Ten very clearly has been second.

But the numbers support the dynamics of the SEC’s dominance are changing and era assuming the SEC is always the best EVERY year is likely over. Consider:

• The Big Ten has won the last 2 titles (Michigan and Ohio State); and placed 2 of the final 4 teams in the semi-finals
• It’s the first 2-year stretch since 2004-2005 in which an SEC team did not play for a national title
• The Big Ten had a 5-1 bowl game record vs the SEC (Michigan over Alabama, Illinois over South Carolina, USC over Texas A&M, and Ohio State’s playoff wins over Tennessee and Texas; only loss was Missouri over Iowa)
• The Big Ten was 11-6 in bowls/playoffs; the SEC was 8-7 in bowls/playoffs
• In Playoffs only: Big Ten was 6-3 (4 OSU wins); SEC was 2-3 (2 Texas wins)
• Even middle of the road (7-6) USC beat the SECs LSU (9-4) and Texas A&M (8-5) to start and end the season

But, I believe the real tipping point for the SEC was the retirement of Nick Saban who to me is clearly the college coaching GOAT and it’s not even close. Nobody who knows college football, including me, will say the SEC is no longer a great conference and the Big Ten has replaced them. But now each year should be evaluated on it’s own merits in speculating who the best conference is. Each year is new, but the Big Ten is now in a much better position to challenge the SEC in claiming who is best.

3) The Randomness of Schedules Will Strongly Impact Success: With 18 Teams and 9 conference games, unbalanced schedules will continue to strongly dictate team records, plus Big Ten championship game and playoff participants.

Pop Quiz: Which team had the hardest schedule in the Big Ten based on opponent record?

The answer is UCLA who played Big Ten teams with a 51-30 record (63%-win rate), and finished 3-6 in conference and 5-7 overall. UCLA started very poorly and first year coach DeShaun Foster took a lot of heat but he actually did very respectable in his first year because Big Ten fans will learn schedules will really dictate results.

Purdue and Ryan Walters had the 2nd toughest schedule facing Big Ten teams with a 49-32 record (or 60%), plus played 14-2 Notre Dame. Purdue should have done better but that brutal schedule was likely the biggest reason for their 0-9 and 1-11 overall season.

And which team do you guess had the easiest schedule in the Big Ten? Of course, Indiana whose schedule became a national hot button topic as the season winded down to the playoff selections. Here are the facts on Indiana’s Big Ten schedule:

• Played teams with a combined Big Ten record of 28-53 (35%-win rate)
• Of their 9 Big Ten games played 7 of the 9 worst teams in the Big Ten standings: (Washington 4-5, UCLA 3-6, Nebraska 3-6, Michigan State 3-6, Northwestern 2-7,Maryland 1-8, Purdue 0-9)
• Only played two Big Ten teams with winning Big Ten records: Ohio State 7-2 and Michigan 5-4
• Of the Top 8 Big Ten teams those were the only two they played (avoided #1 Oregon, #4 Penn St, #20 Illinois

To be fair to Indiana though, I felt they still deserved to make the playoffs since you can only play the teams on your schedule, and they also dominated their opponents as evidenced by having the highest average winning margin in the nation.

Rutgers was considered a Big Ten dark horse due to their easier schedule. It turns out the Scarlet Knights indeed had the 2nd easiest Big Ten schedule facing teams who finished just 32-49. But injuries dereailed Rutgers season and its why their 7-5 regular season which normally would be consider good was a big disappointment.

Schedule Randomness heavily impacted the Big Ten championship game and playoff seedings as well. Consider these stats:

• In the regular season, Ohio State played all 3 Big Ten playoff teams (Oregon, Penn St and Indiana), and teams with a combined 44-37 (54%) conference record
• But, Penn State avoided Oregon and Indiana and played teams with a combined 33-48 (41%) conference record
• Penn State played Ohio State at Home and lost and yet because they avoided Oregon and IU and had only one Big Ten loss, they made the Big Ten championship game
• Penn State also got the higher playoff seed over Ohio State – to me there is clear evidence that teams playing harder schedules are not rewarded as much as they should

All this means the number of losses and perceived schedule strength of teams will continue to be controversial debatable variables in evaluating teams and playoff worthiness.

4. Home Run Coaching Hires Do Not Exist: Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell and USC’s Lincoln Riley are two more great examples.

Another Pop Quiz: What Big Ten team had the second-best conference record in the 2010’s? That would be the Wisconsin Badgers at 64-20 for a 76%-win rate, only behind Ohio State’s Big Ten leading 74-10 for a 88%-win rate (74-10). Third was Michigan State at a 67% win-rate under Mark Dantonio.

Wisconsin and Luke Fickell is the most recent example of there really is no for sure “Home Run” head coaching hire. Fickell was hired in November 2022 replacing Paul Chryst. Many experts called it the best head coach for that hiring cycle in all college footbalI. I get Athlon Sports college football review almost every year and they gave it an A+ saying “Fickell’s ties to the Big Ten ensure a quick transition in Madison”.

I think most experts felt the same on Fickell, especially having taken Cincinnati to the 4 team playoff in 2021, and where he went 57-18 overall (.760 win-rate). Surprisingly he went against the Wisconsin ground game and defense culture and hired Air Raid guru OC Phil Longo from North Carolina and his two years in Madison was anything but a total failure contributing to the Badgers going 7-6 and 5-7 in Fickell’s first two years, including breaking the Badgers streak of 22 straight bowl game seasons. – that’s 12-13 overall record.

That’s a 12-13 overall record for Fickell, compared to these prior 3 Wisconsin head coaching records after 2 years coaching the Badgers:

• Paul Chryst (2015/16): 21-6
• Gary Anderson (2013/14): 19-7
• Bret Bielema (2006/07): 21-5

Yikes. The contrast is stark. Fickell has managed better recruiting ratings which has given Badger fans hope but the reality is Fickell’s tenure so far has been a disaster. I would probably give him a D-. The Fickell home run hire has turned into his 3rd year being the hottest of hot seats.

Week 12 Big Ten Football Hot Takes (November 19) – Big Jeff’s Football

Another Home Run Hire of course is USC’s Lincoln Riley. At Oklahoma, he went 55-10 (.846 win rate) in his five years, including 3 four-team college playoff appearances and he never lost more than 2 games in a season. His hire by USC was also considered the best hire by many that season and a home run.

In 3 seasons at USC, he is 26-14 (.650 win-rate) but Riley is going backwards having just gone 7-6 in USC’s first Big Ten season. Riley has a huge buyout helping protect him, but he is also clearly on a pretty hot seat.

Of course, maybe the worst home run hire failure was Nebraska’s former QB Scott Frost who came from UCF but the results in Lincoln were terrible.

For the record, I would add in Maryland’s Mike Locksley as a 3rd Big Ten coach on the hot seat in 2025. Hire carefully Athletic Directors because there is no hire with guaranteed head coaching success.

5) The Coach with the Most Pressure has Changed: Entering 2024 it was Ohio State’s Ryan Day, but he proved he can win the biggest games. Now that pressure and questions on big games all shifted to Penn State’s James Franklin in 2025.

Coming into the 2024 season, Ryan Day by far had the most pressure on him of any Big Ten head coach with Ohio State entering what many claimed as a “Natty or Bust” season. (Side note: Big Jeff always felt that was ridiculous). With key returning seniors coming back like Jack Sawyer and TreVeyon Henderson and the portal additions of Safety Caleb Downs and RB Quinshon Judkins it was a star studded “$20 million” roster that even Urban Meyer called the best he had ever seen at OSU.

Entering the season, Day had also lost three in a row to Michigan and had ceded Kings of the Big Ten status to the national champion Wolverines. He also had a reputation for not winning the biggest games with a record of only 2-5 vs. Top 5 teams and 8-7 vs Top 10 teams and just 1-3 in three playoff appearances.

Then in the first big test of the season, Ohio State lost at Top 5 Oregon by one making his record 2-6 vs Top 5 teams. But Day did recover with Top 5 wins vs Penn St and Indiana only of course to then suffer the huge upset loss to Michigan that had many calling for his job.

We know what happened next. The Buckeyes won the Natty while blitzing through the playoffs with 4 wins, going beating Top 10 ranked Tennessee, and then went 3-0 vs three Top 5 teams in Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame. The National Title ensures Day is an OSU legend as only 5 Buckeye coaches have also won titles and all are legends as well – Paul Brown, Woody Hayes, Jim Tressel, and Urban Meyer.

The title run also eliminated any reputation of not being able to win the biggest games. His record vs Top 5 teams is now 6-6 and vs Top 10 teams stands at 14-8. And his overall 70-10 (.875-win rate) career record is the best win percentage of any active coach and for coaches with at least 75 games coached he stands third in all-time winning percentage only behind Walter Camp and Knute Rockne.

The only thing left is changing the Michigan results but a Natty is the ultimate goal, so Day is totally off the hot seat, even though the pressures of the Ohio State job never really end. It is just different now.

Ryan Day record in College Football Playoff games at Ohio State

Now enter Penn State’s James Franklin who takes over the mantle of the biggest Big Ten head coach pressure seat.

The great news for James Franklin is his future NFL QB Drew Allar is returning, as is his running back duo of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton and a bunch of other key offensive and defensive players. Plus, he nabbed maybe the best Defensive Coordinator in Jim Knowles from his biggest rival and team he has lost 8 in a row to in Ohio State. Penn State is trying to follow the exact same script as Michigan and Ohio State did in winning a national title.

But here’s the bad news for Franklin. He is out of Excuses. If he can’t win big games next year, then when will it ever happen? Franklin at Penn State is 1-15 vs Top 5 opponents, 4-20 vs Top 10 teams, and 15-29 vs top the 25. Plus, he is 4-17 vs Michigan and OSU.

Penn State’s run to the semi-finals was a step forward but Franklin still did not beat a team he wasn’t supposed to. What was Penn State’s best win? Round 2 over Group of 5 Boise State? Round 1 vs SMU? Home over Illinois?

Penn State’s non-conference schedule is extremely weak and they play Oregon at home and at Ohio State but other than that it’s a pretty easy schedule. But Franklin is lucky in that PSU fans MAYBE aren’t crazy enough to call it Natty or bust but he better win at Ohio State this year, win the Big Ten and win some top 5 games and go deep in the Playoffs again.

6) THE GAME Does Mean Less but That is OK: in a 12-team playoff, the meaning of Michigan vs Ohio State has changed

In the past, the annual Ohio State vs. Michigan game often had the biggest impact of any football game at the pro or college level in helping to determine a National Champion. Whether it was a 4-team playoff, the 2 team BCS or the pre-BCS days, THE GAME loser was likely out of contention for a national championship.

THE GAME epitimized what was unique about college football in that the stakes for every game were the highest of any sport. So many people felt that was THE BEST thing about college football and should not change. But many others were equally frustrated by that and often it meant the majority of college football games had not big meaning in defining a champion.

Before the 12-team playoff, Michigan’s huge upset of Ohio State in Columbus this year would have been devastating to the Buckeyes and literally ruined the year for the team and their fans. But the expanded playoff field has flipped that dynamic on it’s head. In my view, that is OK though, because what that has done has magnified the importance of so many other college football games giving the access to HOPE to so many more fans.

For example, in the 4-team playoff, Indiana’s loss to Ohio State late in the season would have eliminated them from playoff contention rendering the final Purdue at Indiana game only important to those team’s fans. In the new format, that rivalry game also meant a lot! Who would think Alabama and South Carolina fans would ever care at all about who wins an Indiana vs Purdue game?

So yes, we have lost the luster and importance of some rivalries. But it does NOT render them as unimportant. It is just different, and it expands the late season interest for all college football fans and I feel that is a win for the sport.

7) Oregon and Dan Lanning had a Great Year: despite losing in the first round of the playoffs, the Ducks won the Big Ten in their first year and are right on track.

With four former Pac 12 teams joining the Big Ten, the big questions were how would those teams do given the perceived higher physicality of the Big Ten and impacts of long travel across time zones and playing in colder weather?

You can’t really evaluate this after one year, but you can say that Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks thrived in the Big Ten going unbeaten and beating Penn State in the Big Ten Championship game to finish the regular season 13-0 and ranked #1 in the country with #1 playoff seed. And they beat the 2 biggest of the Big Ten bluebloods in Ohio State and Michigan.

Now we know how their season ended in disappointing fashion against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl in Round 2 of the playoffs but given the Buckeyes went on to win the Natty, it doesn’t mitigate the achievements of the Ducks who had a great 2024 season.

Ryan Day won a National Title in his year 6 as a head coach at Ohio State – just like Kirby Smart did at Georgia. Dan Lanning, who coached under Smart, just completed his 3rd year in Eugene. He is recruiting excellent and has built a strong culture at Oregon putting him right on track where he should be in establishing Oregon as a perennial title contender.

8) Sherrone Moore’s First Year at Michigan was a Wild Roller Coaster Ride – he flunked the first part of the year, only to ace the end of the year.

If before the season started, you told a Michigan fan they would beat Ohio State in Columbus and then beat Alabama the next game in a Bowl Game, they would be absolutely giddy. They would also think their season record must have been excellent and 100% for sure thought that the Alabama win would be in the expanded college football playoffs, and they would be moving on to the next round.

Contrast that if before the season you told a Michigan fan, they would finish 8-5 overall coming off their 2023 National Championship, without providing any other details. I think they would have been EXTREMELY disappointed and wonder if Sherrone Moore was really the right person for the job.

What a wild ride for Moore. Up until the 10th Indiana game, I would have given Moore a D- for their season as they were 5-4 at the time and in risk of not making a bowl game. They played 9-1 Indiana tough and only lost 20-16 then of course they finished the season with the big Buckeye and Bama wins. You would have to give Moore an A for that two-game finish.

How do you judge his season overall though? That is a really tough one. He and his staff totally botched the evaluation of their quarterback situation, which hamstrung the offense all season. Even still they should have been better on offense. And then they still had some of the biggest star power in the game including the best defensive line in the nation and could have as many as 5 first round draft picks this year.

In my view, of course it’s still way early to tell if Moore is the right one for the job since he has never been a head coach before and deserves several years to see what they have. But no doubt Michigan built some real strong momentum at the end of the season including getting 5-star QB and LSU 2025 commit Bryce Underwood to switch to Michigan. We will learn a lot more in 2025.