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Actual college football games are almost here. So let’s get Big Jeff’s official Big Ten season record predictions out in Table 1 below. In this supporting article I also provide some key background stats from last year (Table 2) and key data from this year including some FanDuel information (Table 3) that I leveraged to help predict how this year will play out.
With the huge current turnover of rosters due to NIL and the transfer portal, predicting records is tougher than ever and it’s never been easy. There will always be some big surprises both on the upside and the downside. Indiana literally came from nowhere last year to make the playoffs after a 2-10 record the previous year. While I don’t expect another Indiana, some team is going to have a much better year than we think.
It’s important to know, my Big Ten records by team DOES NOT reflect how I would technically RANK the Big Ten teams – so it’s NOT a Power Ranking. A lot of team’s record are driven by the difficulty of their schedules and who they play at home and on the road. It’s why the discussion of schedules is so controversial in College Football in general. First below are the tables and then full writeups on each team are below that include laying out key reasons for both optimism and pessimism on each team.
2025 Big Ten Season Record Predictions
Big Jeff’s Top 10 Storylines for 2025 Big Ten Football – Big Jeff’s Football
OK – Let’s get to it.
1) OHIO STATE
First up is Ohio State who has the Best FanDuel odds to win the Big Ten of +195. I have the Buckeyes going 10-2 overall and 8-1 in the Big Ten. They also have the #1 SP+ rank from ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
I see OSU losing to Texas because I think Arch Manning will hit ground running more than new Ohio State QB Julian Sayin and is the difference in the game. Then I have OSU beating Penn State at home, but stumbling in week 5 in a road upset at Washington.
Recruiting prowess means they are deep and talented: Ohio State has the best Big Ten 4-year recruiting average of #4 in the nation. Much has been made of all the players they lost, but all those players who came back last year meant a bunch of guys had another whole year of maturing and getting stronger and are chomping at bit to show what they can do (i.e. DE Caden Curry, CB Jermaine Mathews, Jr., RB James Peoples).
Big Ten Schedule is not difficult: Teams OSU plays in conference this year went 38-43 last year. They also don’t play Oregon, IU, USC, Iowa (4 of the top 7 FanDuel Big Ten favorites)
Have two unicorn players no other team has: OSU has the consensus best offensive player in the Big Ten in WR Jeremiah Smith and best defensive player in Safety Caleb Downs. Many feel both are the best in the nation and they are elite players who can win a game by themselves.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Rat Poison: This is a term Nick Saban loved to use. For about half a year now, Ohio State players and coaches have been patted on back and told how great they are. Will they have the same hunger this year? Only two teams the past 20 years have repeated (Alabama (2011, 2012) and Georgia (2021,2022). It’s so hard to repeat because so many teams can lose your edge and not maintain the same focus.
New Coordinators with questions: Will new DC Matt Patricia be good at the college level? It’s been a long time since he coached in college, and he is replacing a great one in Jim Knowles who moved on to Penn State. Also, new OC Brian Hartline still has not called plays on his own. He’s unproven and Chip Kelly was great last season for OSU.
Unknown of new young starting QB: I am assuming the starter will be redshirt sophomore Julian Sayin, who is super talented and a former 5-star recruit but inexperienced. All young QBs have their struggles and it’s hard to win a championship with an inexperienced QB.
A loss could come to a team other than Washington, but I think some mid-tier surprise Big Ten team will get the Buckeyes on the road. But with all that talent, by the end of the season Ohio State will be a much better team than at the start.
2) PENN STATE
Penn State will go 11-1 overall and 8-1 in Big Ten with their sole loss at Ohio State. Their ESPN SP+ rank is #3 and they have the 2nd best FanDuel odds to win the Big Ten at +220.
I have PSU beating Oregon in Week 5 that comes after a bye week and just feel that will be a tough game for the Ducks with a young QB in Dante Moore on the road and at night playing in the Penn State annual “white out”.
Reasons for Optimism:
Experienced and talented NFL level QB Drew Allar: Of the Top 5 Big Ten teams only Penn State has a seasoned QB and not just any guy. Senior Drew Allar is projected by some as possibly the first pick in the next NFL draft if he has a big year and is consensus first round pick.
Experienced and talented overall roster: Penn State has 65% of their production returning which is tied for 6th best in the Big Ten but more important it has star power with the best RB duo in the nation in Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, maybe the best Big Ten offensive line, and a talented defense at all 3 levels with no glaring weakness.
Excellent coordinators considered the best tandem in the Big Ten: OC Andy Kotelnicki is well respected as an innovative mind and has worked with QB Drew Allar a couple yrs now so expect the Penn State offense to get even better. And new DC Jim Knowles is considered by many as the best coordinator in the game, is a great game planner and now has the added experience of winning a National Championship at Ohio State least year.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Penn State’s talent is borderline when it comes to National Title winners: PSU has a 4-year recruiting class average of 12.5 in the nation which is very good but not great. Only 2 of the past 20 champions have a worse average recruiting ranking (2016 Clemson and 2010 Auburn when Cam Newton played like Superman). The Nits may not be as deep as most prior champions so they likely can’t afford key injuries.
Both Allar and James Franklin’s history of falling short in big games: Franklin is 1-14 vs. Top 5 teams, 3-19 vs Top 10 teams, and 5-29 vs Top 25 teams. And 0-3 last year against the 3 legit Top 10 teams they played in Oregon, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Allar also has played inconsistently in the biggest games and that can’t happen if Penn State wants to win it all.
Time to install Knowles defense: As much improvement that Ohio State made in Knowles first two years, they still had some major speed bumps like vs Michigan and Georgia and so it’s not easy to quickly implement a new defensive system as detailed as Knowles is.
Results Comments:
PSU has a weak non-conference schedule but has just 4 Big Ten home games and a difficult Big Ten schedule playing teams who had a 45-36 conference record last year. But their harder games are at home vs Oregon, Indiana and Nebraska.
They get Ohio State after a bye, but the Buckeyes will also be coming off a bye making game prep about even. Both staffs are great and will have good game plans. I expect Ryan Day to be more involved in the Penn State game plan than any other game except maybe Michigan.
3) OREGON
I have Oregon going 10-2 overall and 7-2 in the Big Ten with their two losses at Penn State in Week 5 and Week 11 at Iowa. Their SP+ rank is #7 and they have the 3rd best FanDuel Big Ten title odds at +360 so the Ducks are very highly regarded.
Reasons for Optimism:
Depth of Talent: The Ducks are elite recruiters under Dan Lanning with a 4-yr national average of 7th, in the nation, which is only 2nd to Ohio State in the Big Ten. This means they have a strong and deep roster.
Should be great in the all-important trenches: The Ducks lines are deep, talented and big on both fronts ranking 7th in the nation on the Offensive line according to pre-season publication Lindy’s Sports, led by Nevada transfer massive Isaiah World and USC’s Emmanuel Pregnon. They also have Lindy’s #4 rated defensive line led by Matayo Uiagalelei and transfer Bear Alexander from USC.
Strong at the Skill Positions: The offense should stay high powered with Lindy’s #5 in the nation backfield led by Tulane transfer Makhi Hughes (2 yrs, 2800 yds, 22 TDs), and the #3 WR group, though the Ducks did lose experienced star Evan Stewart to injury but have 5 star Dakorien Moore and TE Kenyon Sadiq among others to make up for it.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Will inexperienced QB Dante Moore be a big drop off? Moore did start at UCLA two seasons ago under Chip Kelly but Oregon was spoiled the past two seasons with super experienced Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel and they thrived. Maybe Moore can as well but expect some growing pains and an early Week 5 whiteout at PSU is not ideal for a young QB.
Tough Big Ten schedule (44-37): Oregon has only 4 home games and not only the difficult road test in Happy Valley, but they also have tough road games at Iowa and Washington and home games vs Indiana and USC. Oregon’s conference components had a 44-37 record last year but they do avoid both Ohio State and Michigan this year.
I don’t have Oregon with a 3rd major reason for pessimism which speaks to how good they can be.
Results Comments:
With an easy non-conference schedule that includes Oregon State and Oklahoma State at home, that will ease new QB Moore into role well before the big Week 4 showdown at Penn State. With Oregon’s talent I would not be surprised if Penn State was only their only loss and they finished 11-1 but am sticking with my 10-2 prediction.
4) MICHIGAN
I see Michigan going 9-3 overall and 7-2 in the Big Ten. They are the 4th Big Ten T team with a Top 10 SP+ rank of #10 and FanDuel has them with the 4th best Big Ten title odds at +1000, but that’s a big drop from Oregon’s +360.
But this would be an impressive record if they start true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood as expected. I have the Wolverines losing to Oklahoma in Week 2, especially if they start Underwood vs Mikey Keene, and trip up in Week 4 at Nebraska, plus lose a tight one to Ohio State to finish.
Reasons for Optimism:
Depth of Talent: I am big on recruiting rankings which shows teams have the depth needed to withstand injuries and long seasons. Michigan’s 4-year average is 12th in the nation, slightly better than Penn State’s which bodes well for the season, plus they brought in some talented transfers like Alabama RB Justice Haynes. Sherrone Moore is recruiting better than Harbaugh did.
Returning Production and strong defense: Michigan is returning 65% of their production tied for 7th best in the Big Ten and are most strong on the all-important defensive front as always, ranking 5th in the Nation by Lindy’s with edge star Derrick Moore, defensive tackle Rayshaun Benny, and a couple talented transfers. Plus, they have Lindy’s 5th best Linebacker group, so I expect Michigan not to fall off much from being ranked 10th in the nation last year giving up 307 yards/game.
Easiest Big Ten in-conference schedule BY FAR: UM’s conference opponents combined record last year was a dreadful 27-54, plus they avoid both projected Top 10 teams Penn State and Oregon.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Freshman QB and questions at WR: Bryce Underwood is a 5 star and super talented but other than Trevor Lawrence, no quarterback has come in their first year lit it up leading a team to a title. UM will likely have to limit the playbook and maximize his running skills. At receiver Michigan hopes Indiana transfer from 2-years ago 6’5 Donaven McCulley becomes a true #1 receiver and others step up like Junior Semaj Morgan.
Offensive Line concerns and the offense in general: The line struggled last year as UM was only 73rd in the nation in rushing at 157 yards/game and were 130th in passing (129 yards/game), while the total offense was 129th in the nation.To make the playoffs UM likely needs to be more like in the 70-80’s in offense. In the 2023 title year their offense was 67th.
Sherrone Moore still learning on the job: Moore is still only in his second year as a head coach, plus there’s the unknown impact of how UM will manage his 2-game suspension and effect on young QB Underwood.
Results Comments:
The Wolverines over/under is 9.5 because of their talent and easy schedule, so there is no excuse for Michigan not to be 9-3 unless their QB play is disappointing and unproductive. I feel there are 3 big swing games – Week 4 at Nebraska I have as a loss, Week 7 at USC that I have as a win, and the final week vs Ohio State.
5) USC
I have USC going 8-4 overall and 6-3 in Big Ten BUT given their talent (3-year national recruiting average of 13), I would not be surprised at all if USC does better and even make the playoffs. They are my biggest potential Big Ten sleeper team.
I think their losses come from a tough 3 game stretch of Week 5 at Illinois, Week 6 vs Michigan, and Week 7 at Notre Dame. But then they get a huge Week 8 win at Nebraska and finish strong.
Reasons for Optimism:
Favorable Big Ten Schedule: USC has 5 home games and doesn’t play Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana, thus are avoiding 3 of the Top 5 teams in the Big Ten. USC plays Big Ten teams than only had a 37-44 conference record last year.
Super talented WR room, likely 2nd best in the Big Ten: Junor Ja’Kobi Lane at 6’4” and a 42” inch vertical leap (who had 12 TDs last year) could explode this year with less wide receiver talent to compete with on the roster due to several out-going transfers. The second guy is junior Makai Lemon who has huge talent as well and at 5’11” is more of a speedster, but both are future NFL guys that should produce big plays for USC.
Improved Defense should get even better: DC D’Anton Lynne is in his 2nd year at USC coming over from UCLA and is really good and took this defense from 116th in the nation in 2023 to 77th last year and I expect further improvement again this year.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Losing at Top 10 Notre Dame could cost USC a playoff berth: This is why the current system doesn’t encourage tough non-conference games. Don’t get mad at USC if they don’t commit to keep playing the Irish every year because without playing Notre Dame I have USC finishing 9-3, not 8-4, making them a playoff candidate.
Have a young QB who needs to reduce turnovers and improve decision making: Will QB Jayden Maiva progress like USC needs him to is a key question for USC. Maiva has great promise but last year was too loose with the ball throwing for 11 TDs and 6 turnovers as USC was -3 in turnover margin. This was also an issue at his previous stop at UNLV.
Offensive Line could hold back offense: The trenches has not been up to par on both sides of the ball but maybe more pronounced on offense. The Trojans lost their 2 top linemen in Jonah Meinheim and Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon) so they need transfers J’Onre Reed (Syracuse) and DJ Wingfield (Purdue) to play well to maximize their offensive talent.
Results Comments:
I almost had USC going 9-3 and if they finish games better this year that could happen. USC was 4-5 in one score games but lost 4 when leading in the 4th quarter to Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State and Maryland. They easily could have been 9-4 last year vs 7-6.
FanDuel (Vegas) likes USC with 5th best odds to win the Big Ten at +1900. The week 6 game vs Michigan is a HUGE swing game. At first I had USC winning but changed it to a loss. The Michigan game and if they get the early win vs Illinois then look out.
I have USC as the team that might surprise the most.
6) INDIANA
I have Indiana going 9-3 overall and 6-3 in the Big Ten which is huge for IU and Cignetti since it will prove last year was not a fluke. The key game everyone is talking about is Week 4 at home vs Illinois and I have IU winning that but losing at Iowa in Week 5 and Oregon in Week 6, plus a loss to Penn State in Week 11.
Reasons for Optimism:
Experienced all Big Ten performers at key positions: WR Elijah Sarratt, linebacker Aidan Fisher, defensive end Mikael Kamara, and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds all were All Big Ten plus offensive tackle Carter Smith has that potential. All these veterans will also provide strong leadership and importantly know how to win in the Cignetti system.
QB with a HUGE upside: Some feel California transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza has first round potential. He has prototype NFL size at 6’5” and could make IU’s offense even better than last year’s that ranked 34th in the nation led by NFL draft pick QB Curtis Rourke.
Defense should be strong again under sought after DC Bryant Haines: Haines was in the running for the Ohio State Defensive Coordinator job. Last year IU was 2nd in the nation in Total Defense, and I think based on how they played vs both Notre Dame and Ohio State they were a legit Top 10 unit. I expect another salty defense led by stars Kamara, Fischer and Ponds.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Significantly tougher Big Ten schedule: Last year Indiana had the easiest conference Big Ten schedule playing whose opponents combined to go just 28-53 in conference. Don’t get mad IU fans. It doesn’t mean IU was a fraud last year, but their schedule helped them go 11-1 in the regular season.
This year’s conference opponents combined to go 39-42 last year. IU only has 4 home games and play at both Oregon and Penn State, but also get 4 of the lowest rated Big Ten teams in Purdue, Maryland, UCLA and Michigan State so it’s still a manageable schedule.
Offensive Line needs to perform better against elite teams: Last year Indiana’s line performed poor vs Michigan, Ohio State and Notre Dame all of whom had significant NFL talent on their lines. No shame in that but, if wants to make the playoffs and beat Oregon and Penn State, the line must play better against the top teams.
Wide receiver depth is a concern: IU lost Michigan transfer Tyler Morris to injury in the Spring which was a big loss to their depth as he was an experienced former 4 star recruit. This means the Hoosiers’ best 2 receivers of Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. need to stay healthy.
Results Comments:
Vegas likes Indiana at +3600 on FanDuel to win the Big Ten and SP+ has them 23rd. IU has a terrible non-conference slate and if they finish 9-3 that could come back to haunt them since they likely will have only 1 top 25 win (I assume vs Illinois).
At 9-3 they won’t make the playoffs unless they can win at Oregon or at Penn State. This is why I don’t agree with their scheduling philosophy of scheduling cupcake nonconference games now that they are a playoff contender.
7) ILLINOIS
Beyond Penn State, Illinois might be the most talked about team in the Big Ten. The media LOVES Illinois and have been buying what coach Brett Bielema has been selling. I have Illini going 9-3 overall and 6-3 in the Big Ten, despite calling for them to lose in a huge Week 4 swing game at Indiana.
I like Illinois winning at Duke and then their only other 2 losses vs Ohio State and at Washington in Week 9.
Went 10-3 and have the most returning production in the Big Ten: ESPN’s metrics show Illinois returns a Big Ten leading 75% of production and according to Lindy’s have 16 of 22 starters returning, including all their secondary. On the surface, this looks great.
Experienced and efficient QB in Luke Altmyer: Altmyer will be in his 3rd year in the system, and he was efficient last year with 22 TDs and just 6 interceptions. He is a smart player who does not take risks which has been the key to winning close games.
Easiest schedule in the Big Ten: Illinois does have a tough game at Duke early, but have 5 home games and play teams who were a combined 33-48 in the Big Ten last year, 2nd easiest only to Michigan. They don’t play Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan, which are 3 of the 4 best rated Big Ten teams and do play the 3 lowest rated Big Ten teams in Purdue, Maryland, and Northwestern.
Reasons for Pessimism
Were mediocre at best statistically LY: Illinois ranked 92nd in Total Offense and 68th in Total Defense last year including giving up 5.5 yards/play which was only 13th in the Big Ten. In fact, they gave up 8 more yards/game than they produced! A lot of production returns, but they need to play a LOT better to make the playoffs.
Can Illinois’ record in one-score games continue?: Illinois was 5-1 last year in one-score games including an OT win vs. dreadful Purdue. They also pulled out 4 other games where in the 4th quarter their projected to win percent was 26.6% or less including (Kansas 20.2%), Nebraska (18.4%), Rutgers (3%) and South Carolina (27%).
ESPN’s Projected win index said were like an 8 win team than 10 wins and I totally agree with that and was amazed all last year how they won like they did.
Level and depth of talent not as good as people think: Their 5-year recruiting average was only 51, which concerns me if have key injuries. Other big concerns are losing their top 2 receivers, and their top Running Back transferred to Georgia.
Results Comments:
FanDuel (Vegas) is not nearly as impressed with Illinois as the media is with 8.5 over/under wins and +4000 FanDuel odds to win the Big Ten, which is tied for 8th with Nebraska
All these stats point to what a great coaching Job Bielema and his staff have done to maximize results, but I believe that is why Vegas also has their doubts. I have Illinois winning 9 games because their schedule is bad, not because they are a great team. Good yes, great no.
8) NEBRASKA
I have Nebraska exceeding expectations going 9-3 overall and 6-3 in the Big Ten as QB Dylan Raiola makes a big leap in his 2nd year starting. Nebraska will be 8-0 including wins vs Michigan in week 4 and at Minnesota in week 8 before losing three in a row vs USC, at UCLA and at Penn St.
Reasons for Optimism:
Very Favorable Schedule: Cincinnati is the toughest non-conference game and the Huskers have 5 home game and don’t play Ohio State or Oregon, as well as Indiana and Illinois. They play teams who combined for only a 37-44 conference record last year, tied for the third easiest Big Ten schedule by record.
Returning Production: Nebraska has69% of production returning which is 4th most in the Big Ten and has strong depth of talent with a 5-year recruiting average of 25 nationally and 6th best in the Big Ten.
OC Dana Holgerson in Year Two could take this offense to the next level: Holgerson is a proven offensive mind and key to seeing Nebraska’s offense great improve is helping to magnify the expected jump in play from Raiola in his second year.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Inexperienced front 7 on Defense: The Husker defense ranked 18 in total defense last year and was the strength of the team. If the young, talented defense doesn’t come together as expected that will put even more pressure for the offense to have a breakthrough.
Special Teams: Nebraska has a new kicker and punter. Special teams can be the difference in one-score games where Nebraska has struggled for many years and went 2-5 last year.
History and the teams mental state: We have heard Nebraska is “Back” before. But can they be mentally tough and have the belief they can start winning one-score games, which is a must to win the 9 games I project.
Results Comments:
In Matt Rhule’s year 3’s he has won an average of four games more than in year 2. He did it with Temple (6-6 to 10-4) and Baylor (7-6 to 11-3). If Nebraska goes 9-3, that is an increase of 2 wins but still is great progress, especially with a FanDuel over/under set for 7.5 wins.
9) IOWA
My record for Iowa is 8-4 overall and 5-4 in the Big Ten tied for 9th place (with Washington and Minnesota). After a 5-0 start, including beating Indiana in Week 5 at home, I think the Hawkeyes will lose at Wisconsin and at home to Penn State. Then also have losses at USC and Nebraska, but a huge home upset win over Oregon in Week 11.
Reasons for Optimism:
Recruiting points to good talent and depth: Iowa’s 5-year recruiting avg is 33rd in the nation and an ESPN metric says returning production is at 56% about in middle of Big Ten so I think Iowa overall is deeper in talent than most people think.
Expect good defense again but … : Yes Iowa lost a lot on defense including 6 starters but like Kirk Ferentz’s consistency, I am not overly worried about the defense that ranked 20th in nation last year as long as DC Phil Parker is still around. The defense may not be as good as typical due to depth but will still be a strength and they should get more help from offense.
Upgrade at key QB position and Year 2 under OC Tim Lester should see improved offense: Transfer South Dakota State QB Mark Gronowski carries big hopes for Hawkeye fans where he won 2 titles and threw for 10,300 yards and 93 TDs. He knows how to win and may be the best Iowa quarterback since … well, in a long time.
Also, Lester was in his first year as OC last year and oversaw an offense that went from 15 to 28 points per game and the total offense went from 235 to 329 yards/game, but that was still only 117th in the nation but showed good progress. I expect continued improvement this year.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Brutal Big Ten Schedule with no gimmes limits Iowa’s ceiling: Iowa has the 2nd hardest Big Ten schedule (behind WIsconsin) playing teams who had a 47-34 record in conference last year including playing the top 5 of 8 FanDuel’s favorites to win the Big Ten.
They also don’t play 3 teams with the lowest FanDuel title odds in Purdue, Northwestern and Maryland. But at least they don’t play Ohio State and get 5 home games.
Replacing RB Kaleb Johnson: Iowa always has good running backs but Johnson was special compiling 1,500 yards rushing and 21 TDs. Two returning backs will try to fill the void, but that’s a tall task.
Turnover Margin: Iowa was +12 last year in turnovers tied for 8th best in the nation helping them go 8-5, after going -7 in turnover margin the prior year. What will be the impact if their young defense can’t continue to generate turnovers?
Results Comments:
Excluding the COVID year, Iowa has won at least 8 games 9 straight years, and played in bowls for 12 straight years, and 23 of the last 24 years. If not for that difficult schedule, I would have them better than 8-4. Ferentz is a model of consistency with 204 wins as a Big Ten coach, and with one more he would tie Woody Hayes for the all-time conference record.
10) WASHINGTON
Washington is my 10th team in the Big Ten but at a prediction of 8-4 overall and 5-4 in the conference, I have them in a 3-way tie for 9th place with Iowa and Minnesota. The 8 wins would exceed their FanDuel over/under of 7.5 wins.
Husky fans will love I have them pulling off THE UPSET of the year in the Big Ten beating Ohio State in Week 4, but then having a big comedown the next week traveling across the country to Maryland and losing in an upset. Other losses are at Michigan and vs. Oregon.
Reasons for Optimism:
Talented team who should have been more like 8-5 last year, not 6-7: The schedule last year was rough tied for toughest in the Big Ten going against teams with a combined conference record of 49-32. The Huskies have a true #1 wide receiver in Denzel Boston and #1 running back in Jonah Coleman and not many teams have that. And did you know UW ranked 2nd in nation in pass defense at167 yards/game?
Big upside with talented QB Demond Williams, Jr.: Williams is a true dual threat quarterback who will enhance Washington’s run game and had a breakout performance in a bowl vs Louisville going 26-32 for 374 yds, 4 TDs, and 48 yds rushing. Williams is inexperienced still but makes Washington’s ceiling higher than most teams.
Favorable schedule: The Huskies have 5 home games and play teams who combined for just a 38-43 conference record last year. They get their 2 toughest games at home vs Ohio State and Oregon giving them a good chance to spring an upset. They also get Top 25 Illinois at home but don’t underestimate the Week 3 game at rival Washington State.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Is Washington good enough in the trenches – especially the Offensive Line?: They have a great running back in Jonah Coleman yet the Huskies averaged just 3.96 yards/rush last year for 12th in the Big Ten and were only 61st in total offense last year.
That must improve and line play is the key as Washington brought in some transfers that need to come through like Tackle Carver Willis from Kansas State.
Coaching staff making right late game decisions to win one-score games: The Huskies were 1-3 in one-score games last year including blowing bad 4th quarter leads vs. Washington State and at Rutgers early in the season some of it due to coaching decisions.
Results Comments:
I am very high on QB Demond Williams Jr. and Washington’s upside and would not be surprised if they went 9-3.
11) MINNESOTA
Minnesota has a 6.5 FanDuel over/under but I have them overachieving at 8-4 and 5-4 in conference. Both SP+ and Lindy’s Magazine has the Gophers as the 40th rated team in the nation. My four losses for them are at Ohio State, vs Nebraska, at Iowa and at Oregon.
Reasons for Optimism:
Favorable Schedule: Minnesota has 5 Big Ten home games and play teams with a combined 37-44 conference record last year. And I like how their 2 toughest games are at Ohio State and Oregon since that clears the way to have key home games against mid-tier teams Nebraska, Michigan State and Wisconsin at home.
They also get games vs Big Ten bottom feeders Purdue and Northwestern. Week 3 at California though is a “must win” to get to 8 wins I think.
Defense and star safety Koi Perich: Though MN will have new DC in Danny Collins, last year they were 5th in the nation in total defense and had a +9 turnover margin so they likely need a similar ball hawking defense led by Perich. If Minnesota can replace their other 3 defensive back starters I expect another salty defense again.
True #1 workhorse running back in talented Junior Darius Taylor : Not only is Taylor strong in the run game with 1,032 yds at 4.8 ypc and 10 TDs last year, but he adds to the pass game with 54 catches for 350 yards receiving. Taylor is a true star.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Hard to win big with young 1st year starting QB: Redshirt freshman Drake Lindsay has pro size at 6-5, 230, but is totally inexperienced so expect some speed bumps and bad turnovers.
Offensive line is almost entirely re-configured: The Gophers are going to rely on transfers but they have a history of good lines so I am putting trust in the coaching staff to develop a good offensive line.
With a young QB Minnesota must improve the run game to take pressure off Lindsay but last year the run game was bad with just 3.72 ypc for 14th in the Big Ten and 109 in the nation. That’s very un-Minnesota like and must improve.
Results Comments:
Eight projected wins is likely the ceiling for Minnesota but I am a believer in PJ Fleck and really like how their schedule lays out.
12) WISCONSIN
Remember, Luke Fickell was the #1 consensus hire in the cycle 3 years ago. They are 13-13 under him. The Badgers were the second winningness Big Ten program in the 2010’s next to Ohio State at a 76% conference win rate.
And oh man, do the Badgers miss those Big Ten West schedules? Wisky will be better but it may not show in their record. I almost had the Badgers going 6-6 but then backed down and have them 5-7 overall and 3-6 in conference with hands down the toughest schedule in the Big Ten and possibly the nation.
Reasons for Optimism:
Strong returning production & talent: Wisconsin’s 5-year recruiting average is a good 34th in the nation and 8th in the Big Ten. And according to an ESPN metric have 67% production returning which is near the top half of the Big Ten including star CBs Ricardo Hallman, LB Christian Alliegro and OL Riley Mahlman. There is good overall talent on this team.
Getting back to their Running Roots: The Air Raid offense experiment failed and Wisconsin last year was a poor 78th in the nation and 9th in the Big Ten at 4.4 yards per carry. The hiring of Kansas St. OC Jeff Grimes is meant to get back to their power run game roots which also should help the defense which has regressed.
Their RBs will be young but a good Wisconsin run game is more about the line than the running backs and that line has 3 starters back.
Experienced QB Billy Edwards Jr. will provide needed stability: Wisconsin QB play has been a major weak spot the past 2 years with the Badgers last year only 102nd in the nation in passing yards with 14 TDs and 10 interceptions. Wisconsin was -6 in turnover margin so Edwards must take care of the ball better (15/9 TD to INT ratio last year) and should with his experience.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Brutal schedule limits ceiling: Wisconsin does have 5 home games, but the early road game at Alabama could bruise confidence and then they have only one conference game considered easy vs Maryland in Week 4.
The Badgers play Big Ten teams who had a 51-30 confernce record last year and beyond Maryland the other 8 teams are within the Top 40 in the SP+ rankings. Also, of the Big Ten teams with the lowest FanDuel over/under win totals odds (5.5 or worse), Wisconsin does not play 5 of the bottom 6 – Purdue, Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan State and UCLA.
Will early losses impact team confidence and cause Fickell and that staff to lose the team? If Wisconsin was coming off strong seasons this would be way less of a worry. But this is a real concern including if talk turns to if Fickell may be fired causing players to start thinking of the future vs focusing on winning games.
What happened to that great defense? Wisconsin’s failures to run the ball well and shorten the game like they used to has negatively impacted the defense. Last year they ranked 41st in total defense, falling from 8th in the nation back in 2022 (pre-Fickell).
They also were 12th in the Big Ten last year giving up 5.5 yards per play and were 47th in scoring defense. UW needs better defensive line play and will rely on transfers for that, so this defense is still a big question mark.
Results Comments
Maybe the Badgers can get a big upset win, but I am not calling even though it would not surprise me. If the offense looks like it makes progress this year and they are competitive in games, even if they don’t make a bowl I think Fickell’s job is safe. If they don’t look good and go 4-8 all bets are off.
13) UCLA
UCLA has a FanDuel over/under of 5.5 and I have the Bruins going 5-7 overall and 3-6 in the Big Ten, but I can easily see them winning 6 or even 7 games as well.
UCLA will be hurt by a non-conference loss to Utah in week 1. Key swing games that could really change the season are the Utah game, at Mich St in week 7 and vs Washington in Week 13 that I have both as losses.
Reasons for Optimism:
Addition of former 5 star QB Nico Iamaleava significantly raises UCLA’s ceiling: The signing of Nico could be a program changer for DeShaun Foster and UCLA. He is a talented 6’6” quarterback who had 64% completions for 19 TDs and 5 INTs last year.
Reasonable Big Ten Schedule: After a brutal overall schedule last year (i.e. at LSU) and the toughest conference Big Ten schedule (played teams 51-30 in conference LY), this year’s Big Ten schedule is much more reasonable (playing team with 40-41 conference record LY). The Bruins miss playing top 25 teams Oregon, Michigan and Illinois, but only have 4 Big Ten home games and play a really hard non-conference slate including UNLV.
Can Nico combined with new OC Nico Sunseri make a big offensive impact early?: UCLA’s offense stunk last year at 118th in total offense, 126th in scoring (18.4 ppg) and they couldn’t run the ball 131st in nation (87 ypg).
Sunseri helped lead Indiana’s prolific offense last year but how quickly can he get things going, especially as Nico missed Spring ball for UCLA? They have strong running backs but need better offensive line play.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Rank low in Big Ten for returning production: UCLA only returns 45% of production (4th worst in Big Ten), and recruiting has a 5-year national average of 53 for 3rd worst in the Big Ten. UCLA can’t afford to have many significant injuries.
Can the defense not drop off from last year? Did you know UCLA’s defense ranked a strong 39th in Total Defense last year. But they lost 4 NFL draft picks so it may be hard to duplicate last year’s defense.
DeShaun Foster on learning curve in only his 2nd year coaching: As a new coach, Foster made lots of mistakes last year but also proved he could motivate as the team played really hard all season. But he is still learning on the job and is unproven as a head coach.
Results Comments:
If Nico plays to his talent starting early in the season, UCLA can exceed my expectations.
14) MICHIGAN STATE
I have the Spartans going 5-7 overall and 2-7 in the Big Ten. That is below their FanDuel over/under of 5.5, but the schedule is very challenging which limits their ceiling, and their SP+ ranking is just 64th.
Reasons for Optimism:
Strong Returning Production: Mich State returns 71% of production which is tied with Rutgers for 2nd best in the Big Ten. MSU also has a 5-year recruiting average of 38th in the nation, which is solid, but some of that talent has transferred from the Mel Tucker coaching change.
Have big upside at QB and a true #1 alpha WR; Quarterback Aidan Chiles is very athletic, has great arm talent and improved as the year progressed but Michigan State needs more than just 13 TDs and 11 INTs with 59% completions from Chiles. But quarterbacks typically make a big jump in year 2 and he has a true alpha WR to throw to in Nick Marsh who had 649 yards last year and could go for over 1,000 this year.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Easier schedule than last year but it’s still very difficult: The plus side is there is no Top 10 teams Ohio State and Oregon on the schedule, but Sparty has only 4 Big Ten home games and the road schedule is brutal with games at USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota and Iowa – all tough games. Plus, MSU does not get bottom feeders Purdue and Northwestern.
Must reverse bad turnover trend: The last 3 yrs has seen these turnover ratios: -4, -6 and -8 last year for tied for 114th in the nation. That’s terrible and must change and it starts with Chiles taking better care of the ball.
Lack of Run Game: Good MSU teams run the ball well, but this team doesn’t and was 110th in the nation with 115 yards per game and averaged only 3.5 ypc which was 16th in the Big Ten. Yet they still have no clear #1 running back this year and their line has played poor which is very worrisome.
Results Comments:
I think Jonathan Smith is a good coach but it’s going to take some time to get things rolling. Plus, he had just the 57th ranked recruiting class this past season. If Chiles really shines this year though, they could win 7 games.
15) RUTGERS
Unfortunately, last year for Rutgers was a golden opportunity for a big season with a very easy Big Ten schedule but it was derailed by injuries. It’s the opposite this year which is why I have them 5-7 overall and 2-7 in the Big Ten.
Reasons for Optimism:
If Rutgers stays healthy, they have good talent: Rutgers returns 71% of production tied for 2nd in the Big Ten and SP+ ranks them a solid 45th. They only lost one major player to the portal (LB Mohamed Toure) while pulling in some good transfers (18 total) many of whom will start, and have a 5-year recruiting avg of 40th, which while not great is a big upgrade from past coaches.
Have experienced QB who takes care of the ball: The last two years Rutgers is +5 and +4 in turnover margin and Senior QB Ethan Kaliakmanis is a big part of that and threw for 18 TDs with just 7 INTs. Though he needs to improve his poor 54% completion rate.
Offense took a jump and could do even more in 2025: Under OC Kirk Ciarrocca, Rutgers total offense went from 120th to 71st in the nation last year. Plus, Rutgers has some young talented WRs in Ian Strong (676 yds), KJ Duff (425 yds) and North Texas transfer DT Sheffield (822 yds, 11 TDs), so Kaliakmanis should improve his low 54% completion rate and combined with a typically strong run game, Rutgers offense could take off even more.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Very tough schedule limits ceiling: Rutgers plays all 3 Big Ten teams that will start out in the Top 10 – Oregon and Penn State at home and at Ohio St. Big Ten teams they play combined for a 46-35 record last year and they also have only 4 Big Ten home games and have tough road games at Minnesota, Washington and Top 25 Illinois.
Can defense improve and return to form?: Rutgers total defense went from 37th and 16th the prior two seasons to 95th LY and they were 98th in 3rd down efficiency. Injuries was the biggest culprit here but they could return to form if many key transfers come through.
Results Comments:
If not for the schedule, this is a 7-win team, and I would not be surprised if they did that since Schiano is a good coach.
16) MARYLAND
The final three rated Big Ten teams I have all have FanDuel Big Ten title odds of +30,000 – far worse than the 15 other teams putting them into a “bottom feeder” category. At least Maryland has a little better FanDuel over/under of 4.5 wins than the other three but I have the Terps 4-8 overall and 1-8 in the Big Ten.
Reasons for Optimism:
Favorable schedule gives Terps hope: Last year’s schedule was brutal as Maryland played teams who had a 49-32 conference record, but this year they don’t play 3 of the Big Ten teams who will be ranked in the Top 10 in Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State. They also play teams with combined Big Ten conference record of just 39-42 last year.
The non-conference schedule is easy so the key is going to be winning some key home games amongst Washington, Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan and the final neutral site game vs Michigan State.
If Maryland’s young players emerge this year from the 7th best Big Ten recruiting avg. over the past 5 years: Mike Locksley has always been a good recruiter and his last 5- classes have averaged 30th in the nation. If they can play like they rank Maryland will be better than me and Vegas project.
Hope new OC Pep Hamilton and DC Ted Monachino bring out the best in the young talent: Last year Maryland was 67th in Total Offense and 80th in Total Defense and other metrics weren’t good as well. Both new Coordinators have strong NFL experience and are well regarded with Hamilton as a long–time Locksley friend.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Low returning production and first year starting QB: ESPN has Maryland returning just 42% of their production after 6 Terps were selected in this year’s NFL draft. In addition, Maryland is likely starting a young, unproven quarterback in freshman Malik Washington which usually means you can expect inconsistent performance.
Rushing game improvement is a must: To take pressure off the young QB the Terps must improve a run game that the last 2 years was 114th in the nation and 115th last year at 110 yards per game and they also averaged just 3.6 yards/carry for 15th in the Big Ten. Plus, Maryland lost their #1 RB Ryan Hemby to Indiana.
Can the locker room stay together since it did not last year: Locksley admitted he lost the locker room last year. Maryland averaged just 36,000 fans at home last year. If they get out to a bad start, will it demoralize the team if fans start to not show?
Results Comments:
A bad season does not mean Mike Locksley will be fired. But if Maryland does not look competitive and the QB struggles look out. And if he loses the locker room again it will likely force Maryland to make a move.
17) NORTHWESTERN
Northwestern’s SP+ is 87th with a FanDuel over/under of 3.5 wins. I have the Cats going 3-9 and 1-8 in the Big Ten with their sole win in week 8 at home vs Purdue. They will continue to play home games on the small lakefront Martin Stadium
Maybe the Cats can beat UCLA as well in Week 5 with the Bruins traveling so far and new QB Nico Iamaleava getting adjusted to the offense.
Reasons for Optimism:
New talented and experienced QB Preston Stone: The former SMU quarterback is good and has a big arm and has gone 13-3 as a starter, with 4,000+ passing yds and a 35 to 8 TD/INT ratio. The question is will he have weapons to throw to? The hope is South Dakota State transfer Griffin Wilde (1,147 yds, 12 TDs) will emerge.
Pretty good returning production at 60% is favorable.
Defense is a relative strength: The defense wasn’t the issue last season as Northwestern was 56th in Total Defense including 37th in rushing defense. Defensive end Anto Saka is expected to have a breakout year and has good NFL potential.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Can Stone help turn a dreadful offense into a respectable one?: Northwestern was 130th in Total Offense last year and 128th in scoring. They didn’t rush or pass well and that’s two straight years under Braun they have been ranked in the 100’s on offense. Despite Stone, I have my doubts the Cats can improve to be at least mediocre on offense which is where they need to be to make a bowl game.
Challenging schedule: After a bad 4-8 season last year, having an opener at Tulane is not ideal. At least Northwestern avoids Ohio State, but still plays Top 25 teams Penn St, Oregon and Illinois and has tough road tests at Nebraska and USC.
Results Comments:
Unless the wheels totally fall off, I think coach David Braun’s job will be safe with their new $850 million Ryan Field to open for 2026 season.
18) PURDUE
The final team is Purdue with an SP+ of 101, and I have them going 2-10 and 0-9 in conference. Their schedule is rough once again that includes a road game at Notre Dame. I have their two wins coming against Ball State and Southern Illinois.
Reasons for Optimism:
At Northwestern in Week 8 is a winnable game: The Cats will struggle to score so if Purdue can put some points on the board they could win that game. They also have a winnable game the next week Home vs Rutgers.
New coaching staff under Barry Odom and so many new (54) transfers and losing 56 players allows Purdue to really start over and establish a new culture: Maybe the turn around can be quick but I have my doubts but that is OK as long as the culture starts to be established this year.
The defense returns Zero starters – maybe that is good. UNLV transfer CB Tony Grimes is former 5 star and could be an All-Big ten type performer
Senor RB Devin Mockobee: He is good and had 730 yds at a healthy 5.0 yards per carry and will provide some needed leadership.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Have bad schedule for a team trying build confidence: Purdue opens the Big Tena at home vs talented USC and then plays at ND in week 4. The home schedule is especially difficult including Top 25 teams Illinois, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Purdue also does not get to play Maryland and UCLA.
With so many new players can Purdue really significantly improve things? Purdue did nothing good last year ranking 127th in Total Offense, 123rd in Total Defense and 130th in Turnover ratio at -14. But it did come against the Big Ten’s tied for toughest schedule with teams they played going 49-32 in conference last year.
Results Comments:
Patience is needed but unlike Ryan Walters, Odom has good head coach experience including at Missouri from 2016 to 2019 and had consecutive winning seasons at UNLV for the first time in 44 years. But maybe Purdue will shock me like Indiana did last year.
Comment on Big Ten Championship and Bowl Games:
With Ohio State and Penn State projected to have 8-1 conference records they will tie for first place and get a rematch in the Big Ten championship game.
I have Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon making playoffs. After that we have four 9-3 teams (MICH, IU, ILL, NEB) so marquee wins and schedule strength will matter a lot. But I have none of those 4 with great wins so this is where a weak non-conference schedule can really hurt the Big Ten in trying to get 4 or 5 teams into the playoffs.
I have 11 of the 18 teams with at least the 6 wins needed to make a bowl game. The only teams I have projected not make bowls are Wisconsin, UCLA, Michigan State, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern and Purdue.
