Big Jeff’s Week 5 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Week 5 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 5 picks, let’s first review how I did in Week 4. 

(Odds by FanDuel on 9.18.25).

Week 4 General Comments:

• I went 3-2 in week 4 but really feel like it should have been 4-1 but USC made just enough mental mistakes against Michigan State to allow them to lose by just 14 and cover.
• I did nail my first “LOCK CITY” pick of the year, taking Indiana over Illinois.
• Year-to-date I am 9-11 overall.
• A few comments on what I got right and wrong in Week 4 .

What I Got Wrong:

• I was wrong in taking Nebraska over Michigan because I thought the difference would be Michigan QB Bryce Underwood as a true freshman playing on the road where he struggled against Oklahoma, getting outplayed by Dylan Raiola in his second year at Nebraska and being at home. 
  • It turns out that it was completely mitigated by Michigan dominating up front on both sides of the ball but especially on defense.  They just didn’t give Raiola much chance.   And then the death knell for Nebraska were giving up those 3 long Touchdown runs to Michigan.This win makes Michigan a legit playoff contender and for Nebraska it lowers my ceiling for them, though their remaining schedule is still manageable, but tougher with the emergence of Maryland and playing them on the road.For Nebraska that’s a shocking 28 straight losses over Top 25 teams.  This game revealed they are not where they need to be in the trenches limiting their ceiling but thankfully their remaining schedule is manageable with the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule (according to PFF) and 37^th easiest in the nation.
  • I had Nebraska going 9-3 this year and that is still possible.
• USC beat Michigan State by only 14 preventing my USC cover at -18.5 but this one was disappointing since it felt throughout the game USC was on the brink of blowing out the Spartans.
  • USC was clearly the better team outgaining the Spartans 523 to 337 but most important dominated the run game 289 to 112 yards including 7.2 ypc, while MSU had just 3.5 ypc.
  • At the half it was 24-10, and MSU got 15 yards the first possession before USC scored to make it 31-10 to make it feel like it may be a rout, but after an MSU touchdown to make it 31-17, USC fumbled the ball back.
  • Even still USC scored a TD with 3 minutes left to go up 45-24 but then gave up a 75-yard TD pass allowing MSU to cover.
  • I still think Michigan State is a year away from a lot better.

What I Got Right:

• I kind of got it right with Wisconsin vs Maryland in a matchup of 2 coaches entering the year on the hotseat.  I did not think they would cover 10.5 with that weak offense and thought they would win the game, but Maryland won easily 27-10 in what was really a “must win” for the Badgers bowl hopes.
  • This game officially takes Mike Locksley off the hot seat and instead Maryland is looking good to make a bowl game with a very young, promising team.
  • Fickell meanwhile will likely get to coach this team until December when his buyout amount decreases by $10M+, unless the bottom falls out even worse. AD Chris McIntosh hired him so he give Fickell more of a leash than other programs might.
• I had Iowa covering the 2.5 and winning at Rutgers which they did 38-28
  • In my review I had said these are the type of fairly even games that Kirk Ferentz has excelled in and is why he is the all-time Big Ten leader in wins.
  • My motto is any Big Ten road win is a good win and this was exactly that.
  • Not surprisingly Iowa won the rushing battle 160 to 70, but most important got 186 yards out of the passing game from Mark Gronowski who while threw some really ugly passes, also had a couple really well thrown deep balls, one of which was dropped.
  • Still Iowa’s offensive potential is looking a little better as they figure out ways to leverage Gronowski’s skills.
  • Some say Iowa’s ceiling will never be high under Kirk Ferentz and while that is true, his floor is also very high.
  • In the 2020’s he still has the 4th best Big Ten in conference 2020’s win percent at 70% – even better than #5 Penn State at 67% – now to be fair, PSU being in the Big Ten east means their schedule was much tougher, but it’s still impressive.
  • This is better than his record in both the 2000s (61%), and 2010s (57%) so you can’t say he is getting worse.
  • If Iowa forced Ferentz to retire, they could end up looking like Wisconsin right now.
  • This was yet another missed opportunity for Rutgers though who at 3-1 have the second toughest Big Ten schedule going forward (next to Wisconsin) and 3^rd hardest in the nation according to PFF with 5 Big Ten road games and matchups with Top 5 teams Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State (ugh!)
• Finally, Indiana embarrassed and “broke the will” of Illinois 63-10 in the first matchup of Top 25 teams in Bloomington since 1987 in a game I attended.
  • I had IU covering the 7.5 and winning by 10 and had it as my first LOCK CITY pick of the year which are for games I have the most confidence in.
  • I had said before the season, this was a huge year for Indiana because another season at 9-3 or better would help prove last year’s 11-2 season was not just driven by an easy schedule. 
  • I listen to many podcasts of football experts who only cover college football like Joel Klatt, On3s Ari and, Rick Neuheisel, Josh Pate, Jacob Hester, etc.  
  • This game was the tipping point and now Indiana Football officially is getting the respect as a program from those who matter. 
  • The consensus of really all these folks is that this is proof Indiana was the real deal last year (it was not a fluke only driven by schedule) and IU looks even better this year as a playoff level team. They also have a legit chance to win at both Oregon and Penn St later this year.
  • My only reservation on IU is their depth if they have injuries and I need to see that offensive line play against an elite level defensive line, but we will get to see that vs Oregon and Penn State.
• Turning to Illinois – Illini fans cover your ears, you are going to hate me for this.
  • I have been saying for basically 6 months now that Illinois is over-rated; I felt they were a legit Top 25 team but not a legit Playoff Contender and this game proved that to be true.
  • Their 10-3 record last year was very fortunate driven by going 5-1 in one score games; statistically they were more like an 8-5 team
  • Yes, they returned a ton of starters (16) but many of those players were not that great, and a prime example was their Offensive Line who returned all 5 starters, but they were average at best last year.
    • Just because you return a bunch of players doesn’t guarantee they take a big next step. The media bought the Kool-Aide Bielema was selling everyone, but I wasn’t, nor was Vegas who had them more like 30^th all off-season.
    • Remember, their 5-year Recruiting Rankings national average was 50^th and in the Big Ten that ranks as tied for 15^th in conference, so I doubted all along their level of depth.
  • This blowout loss to IU raises the question for me is Illinois really a Top 25 team; I don’t see them beating USC this Saturday, then they get Purdue which should be a W, but then play Ohio State
  • They are going to be 4-3 after 7 games, then will need to battle vs easier second half schedule to get back into Top 25 which is possible.
  • But JR – I am super worried for Illinois based on that Offensive Line; if you watched the game the right side of the line was having Indiana player totally blow them off the ball – it’s not a scheme thing here, that right side of the line is flat terrible
    • Per PFF OL block grade; and keep in mind 18 teams x 5 linemen = 90 players; I filtered for those 20% min snaps
    • C Josh Kreutz ranks 85^th for all linemen; RG Brandon Henderson is 95th and RT Melvin Priestly is 100^th
    • Illinois is last in the Big Ten and tied for 130^th in the nation giving up 16 sacks this year.
    • If a player is just not that good, coaching can only do so much so without much better line play Illinois is really in trouble.

Big Jeff’s Week 4 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Forde-Yard Dash: This May Be the End for Several Coaching Greats

Week 5 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 9.25.25.

This week we have 6 total games that are all in-conference games and it’s the first week with no non-conference games.  I always provide detailed analysis on 5 games/week so this week I am leaving out the UCLA at Northwestern team since they are both in the bottom tier of the Big Ten.

Just a reminder when I analyze these picks it’s all about “Matchups and Motivation”.  I am looking for edges in both as a look at two opponents.

Other Big Ten Conference Games

NORTHWESTERN (Home) -6.5 UCLA

Week 5 Big Jeff’s Picks of the Week (vs the Spread) SUMMARY

Game 1: #21 USC -6.5 #23 ILLINOIS (59.5 O/U)

Background:

Ahh.  The perfect time to have the Fox Big Noon crew come to your town is right after an embarrassing 53-point loss as a Top 10 team – right?  That is what we get in Champaign on Friday as 4-0 USC visits 3-1 Illinois.

At 3-1, Illinois is licking their wounds and need to recover and get their confidence back very quickly facing a 4-0 USC team that has a prolific and very explosive offense.  A loss here with Ohio State looming in a couple weeks would virtually knock Illinois out of the playoff picture. 

USC is looking like the team I called in the pre-season, the most likely to make a relatively unexpected playoff push.  FanDuel (Vegas) has considered them a threat all along (with National Championship odds in the teens) but for some reason the AP voters have lagged in providing USC love who only just broke into the Top 25 this week.

Why USC Can Cover:

I have very bad news for Illinois. This USC offense reminds me an awful lot like that Indiana offense that is very balanced and just hung 63 on the Illini so I have a hard time seeing them contain USC.

• USC is second in the Big Ten (IU is 1^st) and third in the nation (IU is 2^nd) in Total Offense at 584 yards/game. 
• USC are 2^nd in the Big Ten (IU is 5^th) and 11^th in the nation in passing at 332 yards/game
• USC is 5^th in Big Ten rushing (IU is 1st) at 252 yards/game, and average 7.1 yards/carry (IU is 6.8), which is 3^rd best in the nation (IU is 4^th)
• USC is 3^rd in the Big Ten and 5^th in the nation (IU was 3^rd) in scoring at 52.5 points/game.

Just like IU, USC has many weapons with two running backs over 200 yards rushing led by junior RB Waymond Jordan with 443 yards, 7.8 ypc  and 3 TDs.  At receiver, star Ja’Kobi Lane is out so that hurts, but USC still has Makai Lemon with 438 yards, 18.3 ypc and 3 TDs along with many other weapons like TE Lake McRee (189 yards).

At quarterback the only player ESPN has ranked better than IU’s Fernando Mendoza in QB rating is Jayden Maiava who is completing 71% of his passes for 306 yards/game, with 9 TDs and 0 interceptions. 

With all this firepower, I don’t know how the Illinois defense which is 4^th to last (15^th) in the Big Ten in Total Defense (347 ypg), including 13^th in both Big Ten total pass defense and rush defense, will be able to contain the USC offense.

The right side of Illinois Offensive Line is flat out bad making their whole offensive line a major weak link that a team with the talent of USC can take advantage of limiting Illinois offensive scoring potential.   If you watched the game, it wasn’t really Indiana’s defensive scheme to explain their domination, they were just flat out beating and running over the right side of the Illini line.  You can only coach up so much lack of ability.  I don’t know who Illinois has on their second string but think they have to consider trying other options on that right side or it won’t give Luke Altmyer and that offense much of a chance against even average defenses.

USC is tied for 1^st in the nation with 16 sacks. And looking at PFF, the USC defensive line ranks well and for pass rushing the guy going against the weak Illinois right side is likely DE Kameryn Fountain who rates as the 23^rd best pass rusher in the Big Ten and has 3 sacks with 8 QB hurries. I think USC can stress that weak Illinois line.

USC is now more experienced in playing these multiple time zone travel games, so I don’t see that being a huge factor, though the 12 pm ESA start is not insignificant.  In the last two years, this will be 5th time USC has played in the Central or Eastern time zone including earlier this year at Purdue.  When you do something frequently, you tend to get used to it.  Plus, I think travel later in the year when teams are more beat up and has more significance.  While travel is a factor, I think USC will be fine.

Why Take the Points with Illinois:  

Despite how good USC has looked, this statistically is still a middle of the road Big Ten defense, so if Illinois can address their line issues, they should be able to move the ball and score on USC.  USC is 12^th in the Big Ten in Total Defense giving up 346 ypg, despite playing only the 84^th best schedule in the nation so far.  They are also giving up 20.3 points/game good for 13^th in the Big Ten and just gave up 31 points to a mediocre Michigan State offense.

Illinois has a very good and veteran QB in Luke Altmyer, he just needs time to throw which he did not have against Indiana.  The Illini offense is only 15^th in Big Ten Total Offense at 345 yards/game, 12^th in passing (221 ypg) and 14^th in rushing (125 ypg).  But this has come against the 26^th toughest schedule in the nation (Duke, IU), so maybe the Illini at home can get back on track offensively to keep up with the Trojans.

Maybe the travel will impact USC more negatively than I think.  I stated earlier, I think USC will handle the travel pretty well but they did play Michigan State with a 10 pm Saturday start and now this Noon EST start equates to a 9 am Pacific Zone start.  If that means USC gets off to a slow start, that could allow Illinois to get an early lead and build back some badly needed confidence that will also get the crowd into the game.

Also, USC was 0-3 in their three East Coast travel games last year where they blew 4^th quarter leads in all 3 games.  If Illinois can keep it close maybe that can happen again.

Big Jeffs Call: As much as I respect Bret Bielema and his staff, I can’t say they have a coaching advantage in this game.  Will Illinois still have the confidence needed to beat USC after getting demolished last week?  As my writeup showed, USC looks a lot like Indiana on offense, so this is not the type of team you want to be playing after that loss. 

I don’t see how Illinois can slow down the high-powered USC offense all game, and the Illinois poor offensive line play will be way too much to overcome.  After a slow start, USC covers the 6.5 easy and I am calling this my LOCK CITY pick of the week.   USC 42 Illinois 21.  Confidence: High

Game 2: #11 Indiana -7.5 IOWA (48.5 O/U)

Background:

Indiana is 4-0 and coming off their huge 63-10 blowout home win over Illinois.  This is where coaching and culture really matter because this is a prime let down spot for IU.  Going on the road to play a very tough opponent after winning an emotional game everyone had circled as a key game of the year.  Pre-Curt Cignetti, this was the kind of game that Indiana almost always seemed to fall on their face.  Can Indiana handle success like a Championship team is supposed to is a key question?

Indiana was 3-1 on the road last year under Cignetti, with the only loss to Ohio State and an average win of 28 points (over UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State).  The Hoosiers are 3-1 against the spread this year.

Iowa is 3-1 coming off a very important road win against Rutgers because their remaining schedule ranks 12^th in the nation and 6^th hardest in the Big Ten.  Iowa is 2-1-1 against the spread this year with a push in the Iowa State game.

Under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has a history of being dangerous in these spots having beat No. 3 Ohio State back in 2017 and No. 2 Michigan in 2016. 

Why Indiana Can Cover:

IU offense is balanced and too good to be totally controlled so I have doubts Iowa can keep up in scoring.  Indiana is first in the Big Ten (and 2^nd in the nation) in Total Offense at 589 yards/game.  They are 5^th in the Big Ten in passing at 280 yards/game and first in Big Ten rushing (3rd in nation) at 309 yards/game, and average 6.8 yards/carry (4^th in nation).  Indiana is 3^rd in the nation in scoring at 54,8  points/game.

What makes the Indiana offense really scary is how many weapons they have.  They have 4 running backs with over 200 yards rushing (though they lost Lee Beebe, Jr. for the season) led by Kaelon Black with 306 yards at 7.0 ypc.   At Receiver the emergence of junior Omar Cooper Jr. with 377 yards (19.8 ypc), and 5 TDs means that teams can’t just focus on shutting down star senior Elijah Sarratt (256, 10.7 ypc, 5 TDs). E.J. Williams is a strong third option.

Then at QB, Fernando Mendoza has played even better than Kurtis Roarke and is the current Heisman front runner and rated in ESPN’s passer rating as 2^nd in the nation completing 77% of his passes for 244 yards/game, with 14 TDs and 0 interceptions.  Mendoza gives IU a huge edge at quarterback over Iowa’s Mark Gronowski.

Add to all this is that Iowa’s defense has some stats to show they aren’t your typical great Iowa D.  Iowa’s red zone defense so far this year is giving up 7 TDs in 11 red zone trips.  IU ranks 58^th in the nation in Red Zone scoring conversion at .893 but has scored 22 TDs in 28 red zone trips which is good. Plus, Iowa is only 116^th in turnovers gained, 66^th in defensive drop back EPA (Expected Points Added), and 98^th in EP/play when teams are within the 40-yard line.

Meanwhile, Iowa is 3^rd to last in the Big Ten in Total Offense at 338 yards/game and 13^th in the Big Ten in scoring at 33.0 points/game, though they did just score 38 points on Rutgers.

Indiana’s defensive line is potentially strong enough to contain the Iowa rushing attack which is key for Iowa to win.  Iowa averages 4.7 yards/carry and is 45^th in the nation (@ 201 yards/game) and 6^th in the Big Ten, while the Indiana rushing defense only gives up 3.28 yards/carry which is tied for 38^th best in the nation, and 87 yards/game.  Indiana allowed 2 yards rushing to Illinois (including sacks) and only 11 carries for 29 yards to Illinois running backs. 

If Indiana can control Iowa’s running game, the Iowa passing game which is last in the Big Ten at 138 yards/game is not good enough to win or keep the score close.

Why take the points with Iowa: 

All stats show that Iowa has the best offensive line in the Big Ten and can help execute their classic Hawkeye football game plan in running the ball and controlling the clock to win this game.  To this point, all five of Iowa’s starting offensive linemen are graded in the top-9 of all FBS linemen, though it has been versus a weak overall schedule, so it’s too early to say Iowa truly has the best line but it’s damn good. They will be going up against an IU defensive front seven that ranks No. 1 in front-seven havoc rate so the Iowa offensive line against the Indiana line is one of the huge keys to the game.

Iowa has the type of strong pass rush that can disrupt the IU offense just like happened last year to IU vs Michigan, Ohio State and Notre Dame.  This is a talented and disruptive Iowa D line.  Six of Iowa’s 10 sacks have come from the DE duo of Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett — both are graded 9th and 14th among Big Ten defensive ends in pass rush. And the Iowa tackles also generate pressure, so they are equipped to give Indiana major troubles, especially backed by a rowdy crowd.

Iowa should be aided by using Special Teams to win the hidden yards battle.  Iowa specializes in this area, and the Hawkeyes Kaden Wetjen is a great kick and punt returner (with both a kickoff and punt return for TD this year), but his kickoff returns will be mitigated but IU’s kickoff return specialist Brendan Franke who is graded as the No. 1 kickoff specialist by PFF and ranks 4th nationally in touchback rate (96.8%).

But IU punter Quinn Warren punts a very returnable ball with his average punt being returned 7.5 yards, 4^th most in the conference, so Wetjen will have his chances to make a big play if Iowa does their jobs forcing Indiana punts.

Big Jeff’s Call:

I don’t think Indiana is going to have a major let down here under Cignetti’s watch.  Iowa will have to earn the win.  This game comes down to if Iowa’s excellent offensive line can win the battle against a very good Indiana front 7 and run effectively controlling the clock and keeping Indiana’s high-powered offense off the field.   And then Iowa needs to get some touchdowns in the red zone to keep up with IU in scoring. 

On the other side, Iowa needs a strong pass rush to keep Mendoza from generating big plays in the pass game.  I just think Indiana is too strong and balanced on offense, with a good defense and have much better big play ability.  Iowa has to work so hard to score and lacks big play ability.  This mean as the game moves along Indiana will pull away and cover the 7.5.   Indiana 35 Iowa 20.  Confidence: High

Game 3: #1 Ohio State -8.5 WASHINGTON (52.5 O/U)

Background:

Before the season started, I had a feeling Ohio State with a younger team and first year starting quarterback would lose one road game they weren’t expected to and chose this Washington team. 

Ohio State is 3-0 and playing their first Big Ten road game after an off week, which given how good their coaching staff is an advantage and Ohio State under Ryan Day is 6-0 off bye weeks.  Of course, Ryan Day is 70-10 overall so he doesn’t lose many games in general.  It also is the first road game for first year starting quarterback Julian Sayin.  Day is 49-1 against unranked opponents and 23-3 in Big Ten road games.

Of course, Ohio State’s best win was Game 1 at home 14-7 over #1 Texas where the defense shined but the offense was very conservative.  While still really good, that game has lost some of its shine as the Texas offense and QB Arch Manning continue to struggle.

Washington is also 3-0 under second year coach Jedd Fisch and averaging 55.7 points/game which is first in the Big Ten and 2^nd in the nation.  Washington opened the year with 7,5 wins as their over/under which I felt was a little low and had them going 8-4.  The way they are thumping people and how their stars are playing (more on that later), that may have been underestimated. Despite being unranked, they look like a Top 25 team to me.

SP+ has Ohio State as the #3 team with the 2^nd best rated defense, while Washington continues to rise after starting the year 37^th but is now 28^th in SP+.    PFF’s power rank has Ohio State #1 (and defense ranked #2) and Washington 16^th including having the #1 rated offense.

The game opened at about -14 and now is down to -8.5 This year against the spread Ohio State is 2-0-1 and Washington is 2-1.  Ohio State leads the all-time series 9-3 and has won 4 straight dating back to a 1994 Washington 25-16 win.

Why Ohio State Can Cover:

Washington’s defense does not look like it’s good enough to significantly slow down the talented Ohio State offense and especially the passing game.   With only 3 games to evaluate, Washington’s defense looks middle of the road in the Big Ten (though the Big Ten is still really strong on defense).

Washington ranks 10^th in the Big Ten giving up 262 yards/game and also 10^th in scoring defense (18.3 ppg) having given up 21 points to Colorado State and 24 to Washington State who gained most of their yards through the air (277 of 305).  But, the Husky run defense is a strong 4^th in the Big Ten (63 ypg) and only giving up 2.4 yards/carry but the pass defense ranks a poor 11^th giving up 200 yards/game.

Note: Star Washington CB Tacario Davis missed the Washington State game and is still questionable vs OSU.  If he is out, it’s significant as possible replacement Leroy Bryant is one of the worst graded in PFF CBs with a weak 41.8 defense grade.  Given OSU’s stud WRs, Davis’s status is a big game X factor.  Starting LB Taariq Al-Uqdah is out for sure.

Meanwhile Ohio State’s offense is kind of hard to judge due to their very conservative game plan vs Texas and we only have 3 games to analyze.  OSU is 6^th in Big Ten total offense at 475 yards/game, average 40.3 points/game, have the 4^th best Big Ten pass offense at 283 yards/game, and the 8^th best Big Ten run offense at 192 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry which is 23^rd in the nation.

But the Buckeyes offensive potential looks impressive.  We all know about elite wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate but Julian Sayin is completing 79% of his passes and his deeps balls have been very good at 9 for 9 with 6 TDs of throws over 20 yards.  They have really good tight ends, a 3-person running back room all who bring something different to the table and an offensive line playing well with the exception of right guard Tegra Tshabola (55.4 PFF grade).  OSU has so many weapons you can’t say we will be good if we just take away this one player.

Finally, Ohio State has relatively struggled in red zone offense ranking 70^th in the nation (15 trips, 13 scores and 10 TDs), but Washington has allowed opponents to score on all 8 red zone trips that includes 6 touchdowns.  All this supports the Huskies will struggle to slow down the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s defense is strong across all 3 levels and has the stars to at least slow down a great Washington offense.  Ohio State leads the nation in scoring defense giving up only 5.3 points/game.  The other numbers aren’t quite as impressive as they rank 4^th in the Big Ten and 11^th in the nation in Total Defense giving up 228 yards/game.  So far OSU’s pass defense is better at 2^nd in the Big Ten giving up 118 yards/game, while the run defense is 11^th giving up 109 yards/game BUT only 3.15 yards/carry.  All 4 Ohio State defensive backs rank very high.

Key for Washington is using Jonah Coleman and the running ability of Demond Williams to make Ohio State respect the run and use Caleb Downs to stop it to open up shots down the field to Denzel Boston who hopefully will be guarded by the weaker OSU cornerback in Davison Igbinosun who also is susceptible to holding penalties.

For OSU, I think the game plan for Washington will look a lot like it did vs. Texas and mobile QB Arch Manning where the defensive ends will not rush hard up the field and instead try to contain Demond Williams in the pocket and force him to make throws from there against Ohio State’s excellent secondary.

Why take the points with Washington: 

Unknown from Ohio State rarely facing quarterbacks with the true dual threat abilities like Demond Williams Jr can present plus Washington’s overall amazing efficiency on offense and star power.  I already mentionedWashington is second in the nation in scoring, but they also haven’t punted on their last 25 drives, are converting third downs at a 75% rate and scoring on 79.3 of their possession – both the latter marks lead the nation.  Impressive!

Washington actually has a three headed monster Ohio State needs to contain and all 3 have great PFF Stats by the way.  It starts with QB Demond Williams Jr who is one of only 2 FBS players averaging over 250 yards passing and over 50 yards rushing a game. He can turn a play that looked like nothing is there into a big play.  Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard last year may be the closest comparison to what OSU has faced, but he was more of a power runner and not as good of a passer either. 

Plus, 6’4” junior WR Denzel Boston for the Huskies is a true big-bodied #1 receiver and a handful to contain with 249 receiving yards (15.6 ypc) and 3 TDs.  And then RB Jonah Coleman is a literal bowling ball and leads the nation with 10 touchdowns in only 3 games averaging 116 yards/game and 6.8 yards/carry and also is used in the passing game and is the Huskies 2^nd leading receiver with 8 catches for 150 yards and 1 TD.

Washington only has one other receiver with more than 100 yards (104) so you can count on Ohio State leveraging All-American Safety Caleb Downs in multiple ways to contain all 3 Huskey stars.

Julian Sayin susceptible to throwing an interception in his first road game that could change the momentum of the game:   I have stated I think it will be very hard for Washington to contain the Ohio State offense.  But a big caveat to that is the unknown of a young, first year starting quarterback like Julian Sayin starting his first game on the road in a raucous environment.  In his last game vs. Ohio at home he threw an interception and a couple other shaky balls and did look a little bit rattled. But given his youth all quarterbacks have those moments.  Sayin has 2 interceptions this year.

Will Ohio State’s offensive game plan be more conservative because of this with a bigger focus on the run game vs aggressive play calling?  Especially with OSU having a great defense.  If so, that will serve to keep scoring and possessions lower, increasing the Huskies ability to cover those 8.5 points. 

Ryan Day’s philosophy on this has been consistent.  In their own territory the play calling is much more conservative but as they get past their own 40-yard line the play calling gets much more aggressive and that is what I expect vs Washington.

Washington has a real home field advantage with the nation’s longest home field winning streak of 22 in a row that includes beating 4 ranked teams.  In Ohio State’s sole trip out west last year to Oregon in the regular season they lost by 1 in a game that came down to the very last play.  This will be their first road game of the year, and Washington simply plays with a different level of confidence at home – as they went 0-5 on the road last year.  And remember to cover here, they don’t even need to win, just lose by less than 8.5 (I know, “duh, Big Jeff”).

Big Jeff’s Call:   I wouldn’t be betting on this game given Washingtons weak schedule and Ohio State’s still very young QB just trying to get settled into his job playing in a tough road environment.  But despite loving Washington’s offense and their 3 stars, I feel Ohio State is a much more balanced team and strong on both sides of the ball and have big doubts about Washington’s defense, and how they will stop the OSU elite receivers. So, I like OSU to win and cover the 8.5.

BUT a big threat to that is if Ohio State goes too conservative on offensive play calling and young Julian Sayin.   Washington is similar to Oregon in that they have great big play ability, so you better play call fairly aggressive to score some points.  OSU needs to trust Sayin with 3 games under his belt to take advantage of the WR weapons he has that will then open the run game.   Ohio State 34 Washington 24.  Confidence: Low. 

Game 4: PENN STATE -3.5 Oregon (52.5 O/U)

Background:

This is the second “it’s finally here” Big Ten conference game after last week’s Illinois at Indiana game.  But I feel like I know even less about these two teams because they haven’t played anybody good – Penn State did that on purpose, where Oregon got “unlucky” since their games included normally pretty good Oklahoma State and Oregon State.  Both teams come in unbeaten and the atmosphere for a night PSU “white out” with ESPN GameDay in town will be electric.

Given the weak schedules I am thinking of not doing a normal statistically deep dive because I am not sure how well that will inform my pick.  But here are some things I feel I do know coming in:

• Penn State’s defense is at minimum great and potentially elite
•  Penn State has more pressure on them than Oregon
• Oregon is flying under the radar and Dan Lanning LOVES that.
• Oregon QB Dante Moore is playing great and continuing the strong tradition shown by Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel – but this will be his first true test.

Why Penn State can cover: 

Just Penn State’s defense alone may be good enough to either win the game, cover or both.  In James Franklin’s tenure, defense has never been the issue.  But now Penn State has even upgraded their D-Coordinator position even more with hiring Ohio State national champion DC Jim Knowles who also at this point knows how to plan for and win big games.   Penn State has both experience and playmakers at all 3 levels and have a fierce pass rush led by potential All-American Dani Dennis-Sutton to put a lot of heat on a young QB like Donte Moore.  And the emergence of freshman Chaz Coleman who ranks 7^th in PFF’s pass rush stats and 2^nd in the Big Ten. Here are some of their impressive stats:

• Give up 5.7 points/game, for 2^nd best in Big Ten and 3^rd in the nation.
• Give up 224 yards/game for 3^rd in the Big Ten and 9^th in the nation
• Tied for 6^th in the nation in only allowing 6 red zone trips (and  50% conversion)

With their offensive line and star two-headed running back duo, Penn State should be able to run on Oregon’s run defense which will take some pressure off QB Drew Allar to feel he has to win the game.  Oregon giving up 3.3 ypc which is 40^th in nation and 109 yards/game is also 40^th in the nation.  Not bad but this was against some really weak competition.  Penn State meanwhile with Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton is 7^th in the Big Ten and 44^th in the nation at 194 yards/game and averaging a good 5.5 yards/carry. 

Allen is 100% healthy and has 273 yards at 8.0 ypc, while Singleton has just 179 yards at 4.4 ypc.  Allen is better battering ram anyway who can still take it to the house so I expect to see a ton of Allen carries to wear down that Oregon defense and set up the pass.

White Out home field advantage: Oregon has plenty of experience in big games at big venues.  Where the crowd can come in though is when the Ducks are on offense and can’t hear their quarterback.  They may need to go to silent count’s, be more susceptible to key false starts and other small things that can make a difference in close games like these.

Why take the points with Oregon:

Who do you trust more in Big Games like this – Dan Lanning or James Franklin?  Until he wins a Top 5 like game like this again, it’s hard to trust Franklin given his history.  We know the stats on this with James Fraklin 1-15 vs Top 5 opponents and 4-20 vs Top 10 teams.   We also know Dan Lanning has won big games like at home vs #1 Ohio State last year and against Penn State in the Big Ten championship game.

Oregon’s offense under new QB Donte Moore looks like it has not lost a beat and is very well balanced and will stress a great Penn State defense but one that hasn’t been close to being tested which is a worry for me.   I did not like Penn States powder puff schedule because it doesn’t allow you to identify potential weak spots and make you better from being battle tested. 

The Duck’s defense has been solid at 5^th in the Big Ten giving up 229 yards/game but it’s the offense that stands out to me as the true team strength.   The offense is 4^th in the Big Ten at 524 yards/game, 4^th in scoring at 50.8 points/game, and has a great balance of 269 yards/game passing and 255 yards/running.

Dante Moore is completing 75% of his passes with 11 TDs and only 1 interception, with just 1 sack.  That is amazing efficiency and his PFF offensive grade stands 5^th in the Big Ten.  He has various weapons including 3 running backs over 150 yards rushing and 5 wide receivers with over 100 yards led by true freshman WR Dakorien Moore who looks like a future star with 207 yards at 17.3 ypc.

I worry Drew Allar only looks like a good but not a great quarterback which I don’t think will allow Penn State to reach their goals including beating Oregon.  I know it’s not super motivating to be playing weak competition and PSU has run a vanilla offense so far but I you are a great QB all that doesn’t matter and you still should go out and produce really good stats.  But Allar is just not doing that which is a red flag.

For the year Allar is completing 65% of his passes for 626 yards, has 4 TDs with 1 interception.  His ESPN Big Ten QB rating is 14^th in the Big Ten between Danny O’Neil (WI) and Bryce Underwood.  His PFF Big Ten QB passing grade is 13^th.   And all this is with the potentially best offensive line in the Big Ten and an upgraded receiver core.  I just don’t get it other than, he is who he is at this point.  A good but not great QB.

Big Jeff’s Call: Penn State has way more pressure on them in this game, and especially QB Drew Allar and James Franklin, and both of them know it.  I don’t know if that is good thing.   Meanwhile, Oregon and Dan Lanning will come in guns blazing and won’t hold anything back.  I expect some trick plays or something unusual from Oregon.   

Oregon’s offense is great, but I believe in and trust the Jim Knowles led Penn St defense to keep it close.  It will come down to Drew Allar needing to make big plays.  He will make some, but as we have seen in the past, not enough of them as Oregon wins.  I take the Ducks in a tight one.  Oregon 31 Penn State 28.  Confidence: Low

Game 5: MINNESOTA -5.5 Rutgers (50.5 O/U)

Background:

Minnesota is 2-1 and playing their first Big Ten game coming off a bye week after a disappointing 27-14 road loss to California where they did not have star running back Darius Taylor due to injury but still managed to only lose the yardage battle to the Bears by 5 yards (335 to 340) but were helped done in being -2 in turnovers. Taylor is officially ruled out for Rutgers which while certainly is bad news, they did get 85 yards and 5.3 ypc from main replacement RB freshman Fame Ijeboi, but for the game Minnesota only had 130 yards rushing at 3.5 ypc.

Rutgers is 3-1 overall, and 1-0 in the Big Ten and coming off a disappointing home loss to Iowa 38-28.  Rutgers struggled to run the ball at 2.3 ypc and had to rely on a strong 330 yard passing game from QB Athan Kaliakmanis to move the ball.

The game is also interesting because Kaliakmanis used to play for Minnesota and Rutgers OC Kirk Ciarrocca used to be the OC for the Gophers.

Why Minnesota Can Cover:

The Minnesota defense is playing elite so far statistically, and could make it very hard for Rutgers to get the scoring they need to win or cover.   Here are some impressive stats on Minnesota through 4 games:

• Lead the Big Ten and the nation in total defense giving up 178/yards game
• Lead the Big Ten and the nation in rushing defense giving up 41 yards/game (only 1.8 ypc)
• Are 6^th in the Big Ten in pass defense giving up 136 yards/game
• 6^th in the Big Ten giving up 12.3 points/game

Despite Taylor being out, Minnesota should be able to run well against a poor rated Rutgers front four.  The Minnesota offense has been solid averaging 421 yards/game which is 10^th in the Big Ten but are 9^th in rushing at 180 yards/game and a solid 4.3 yards/carry but that’s without their best RB for one game. 

Meanwhile, Rutgers ranks 14^th in Big Ten rushing defense (152 ypg) and their front 4 ranks very poorly according to PFF with 3 of their 4 starters in the yellow/orange level which is very poor.   Only defensive end Eric O’Neill ranks well for Rutgers.

And just in general this is not a good Rutgers defense so this Gopher offense should not struggle to score.  Rutgers gives up an average of 24 points/game for 15^th in the Big Ten.  Rutgers gave up 38 to a fairly weak and non-explosive Iowa offense, and 31 to Ohio at home.  In total defense Rutgers gives up 344 yards/game or 14^th in the Big Ten.

Why take the points with Rutgers: 

Minnesota’s great defensive stats including their pass defense, might be deceiving given what California did, so Rutgers prolific pass offense may do well.   Despite all those great stats for the Gopher defense cited above, much of it came vs very weak competition and Cal was able to gain 279 passing yards (7.2 ypp) on 24-38 passing from their talented young QB. 

Rutgers is 7^th in the Big Ten in total offense (446 ypg), with a very strong passing game ranking 3^rd in the Big Ten (22^nd in the nation) at 305 yards/game.

All 5 starters on Rutgers offensive line rank well according to PFF (with ratings of 69.6 or better) and Kaliakmanis is much more experienced than Cal’s freshman QB and he certainly will have better weapons to throw to.  All this supports Rutgers should be able to move the ball well with their passing game.

Rutgers QB is much more experienced than Minnesota’s and has a history of taking care of the ball, so Rutgers has a better chance to get the turnovers needed to win in tight games like this  Rutgers QB Athan Kaliakmanis is the highest rated PFF Big Ten QB in both overall offense and passing and is completing 68% of his passes for 7 TDs and 1 interception.  Drake Lindsey is actually an impressive 3^rd in both PFF QB overall offense and passing stats with 4 TDs and 1 interception.

The reality though is Lindsey is still a very young QB who has faced a mostly easy schedule and did have an interception vs California.  Rutgers hopes he plays more like the first year, redshirt freshman starter that he is.

Rutgers showed from last year then can win on the road going 3-2.   They won at Virginia Tech, Maryland and the last regular season game at Michigan State. 

Big Jeff’s Call:  Because Taylor is out for Minnesota, I don’t feel very strong for either team in this one.  The way Minnesota lost at a decent Cal team is very concerning.  But the way Rutgers gave up 38 points at home to Iowa is very concerning.  Rutgers needs this game more because their schedule is so much tougher the rest of the way.  I think it comes down to how Lindsey plays because I think I know how Kaliakmanis will.  I will take the Gophers to win based on the 2 weeks to prepare but NOT COVER.  Minnesota 27  Rutgers 24.  Confidence: Medium