Big Jeff’s Week 8 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Week 7 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 8 picks, let’s first do a comprehensive review of how I did in Week 7.

(Odds by FanDuel on 10.9.25).

General Comments:

• I had said on X that Week 7 was a “Narrative Defining” week for the Big Ten posing these questions that we got definitive answers on:
• First, is Indiana a true Top 5 team? By winning 30-20 to Oregon, they answered a definitive yes. 
• Second, is Illinois a real playoff contender or just a good team?  By losing to Ohio State at home 34-16 after being down 20-0, we definitively know Illinois is not a playoff contender.
• Third, will USC or Michigan set themselves up for a playoff push?  USC set themselves up as a clear playoff contender thumping Michigan 31-13.
• Overall, I went 3-2 this week including winning my weekly Lock City pick that I am most confident in of Ohio State covering 15.5 over Illinois to make my year-to-date overall record 17-18 and 3-1 on Lock City games.
• Let’s do a quick what I got right and wrong in Week 7.

What I Got Wrong in Week 7: 

• Let’s start with what not what I got wrong, but what I totally bombed.  I went with my gut and predicted Wisconsin as a 3.5-point underdog to beat Iowa 20-16 in a mild upset, but instead they got destroyed at home 37-0 in embarrassing fashion.
  • I thought their new QB Hunter Simmons looked pretty good vs Michigan and it felt like Wisconsin had a lot of fight vs Michigan and had not quit.
  • Add to that Iowa QB Mark Gronowski being questionable and Wisconsin’s strength of great run defense matching well Iowa’s strength of running the ball, plus the revenge factor of Wisconsin getting crushed at Iowa last year.
  • None of that mattered.  QB Simmons played terrible with 2 interceptions on the 2^nd and 3^rd drives and it was 17-0 Iowa after 1 and the game was done.
  • My Wisconsin grad brother was at the game and they left early second half to go watch the Brewers game.
  • Fickell has totally lost his team and is done – it’s a matter of when.
  • Good win for Iowa because ANY Big Ten home win is a good one in my book.
• I also lost taking Nebraska to win and cover 6.5 over Maryland predicting they would win by 10.  Nebraska did win but only by three, 34-31.
  • The good for Nebraska is they won a one-score game and moved to 2-1 on the year in one-score games so hopefully they have shaken that close game issue that has held them back in the past.
  • The bad thing is QB Dylan Raiola threw 3 interceptions, which is never excusable, but did overcome it with 4 TDs.  He can’t do that against better teams.
  • For Maryland, after their 4-0 start, they have lost 2 straight home games while leading in the second half but both Washington and Nebraska are good Top 25-like teams and this shows how talented this young team is and I still think that keeps Mike Locksley’s job safe for this season.

What I Got Right in Week 7:

• Ohio State beat Illinois 34-16 to cover the 15.5 points.  I had predicted 34-14 so literally was only 2 points off on Illinois.
  • To win this game, I had said Illinois needed to be at least +2 in turnovers to have any chance to win this game.  Illinois entered this game +7 in turnovers which was 5^th in the nation.
  • But they were -3 in this game giving Ohio State short fields to work with including TD drives of 35 and 26 yards in the first half, helping stake Ohio State to an early 20-0 first half lead and the game was over. 
  • Illinois outgained Ohio State 295 to 272 but that was totally misleading because of the short fields, early lead for OSU and thus they just played it conservatively.
  • But I was impressed with Illinois fight and their defense played better given they came into the game 16^th in the Big Ten in total defense.
• Second, I took Indiana getting 7.5 points but had them losing by 7 to Oregon.  Of course, Indiana won 30-20 in the biggest result of the weekend.
  • This was such a huge game for Indiana because it was the chance to prove both last year was not a fluke and this year’s team is a Legit Top 5 team and national title contender.
  • With this win, the last of the reasonable college football experts finally came aboard and agreed this Indiana team is for real and not just a team taking advantage of playing weaker teams.
  • As an IU grad, I am as shocked as anyone since I had my doubts Indiana’s offensive line could match Oregon’s D line; not only did that happen but Indiana won in the trenches and was able to match or counter Oregon’s speed and athleticism.
  • This game announced Indiana as a true college football power and that fact was so important for the Big Ten given the struggles of Penn State.
  • For Oregon, it revealed concerns about their linebackers, rushing offense and how much they miss having a second high level receiver in the injured Evan Stewart, and QB Donte Moore looked like the still young QB he is for the first time this year.
  • But let’s not over-react either, IU is really good but we know this Oregon team has Top 5 level talent.
• In the third game I got right, I had USC not just covering as 2.5-point favorites to Michigan but winning by 10.  They won by eighteen, soundly beating the Wolverines 31-13.
  • I had several Michigan fans really come at me on X for this pick as if I was saying Michigan wasn’t any good or that I was personally attacking them.
  • I just felt USC’s loss at Illinois did not represent how good they are and playing at home with Michigan traveling all that way, and with an offense that was really going to stress Michigan’s defense, that USC would cover with medium confidence.
  • The only thing that gave me pause was their ability to stop Michigan’s big play runs they have been living on with Justice Haynes.
  • Haynes had a solid game with 51 yards (at 5.1 ypc) until he got hurt late in the first half, but USC really bullied Michigan like Michigan usually does to opponents outgaining the Wolverines 489 to 316
  • but more impressively running for 224 yards at 6.2 yards/carry, while Michigan only had 109 yards rushing at 3.5 ypc.
  • Add to it USC QB Jayden Maiava is a much more experienced QB than Bryce Underwood with way better weapons and it was a recipe for the domination that happened.
  • The win puts UCS now at 5-1 right in the playoff picture and might be looked back on as the turning point for Lincoln Riley and USC.
  • For Michigan, now with 2 losses at 4-2, despite the 6^th easiest remaining Big Ten schedule according to PFF, it doesn’t feel like they are in the conversation anymore.

Big Jeff’s Week 7 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Forde-Yard Dash: The Teams and Coaches Who Can Actually Win College Football National Titles

Week 8 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 10.16.25.

It was hard this week to choose the 5 games to pick.  I decided both Ohio State at Wisconsin and Indiana at Michigan State were just too big of spreads to pick and in general I don’t recommend betting games with huge spreads.

I also left out Notre Dame vs USC because I prefer to predict Big Ten games, and I have not been watching Notre Dame since I focus on the Big Ten so that makes it hard to predict.

But, I can’t understate what a huge game this is for both programs. For Notre Dame, it’s basically a play-in playoff game.  Win it, and they are in great shape to go 10-2 and make the playoffs. Lose it and they are out. 

For USC, this would Lincoln Riley’s first true statement win at USC and put them in great shape to make the playoffs as well if they finish at least 10-2.  I think 9.5 points is a lot so would bet USC to cover but I like Notre Dame to win.

Just a reminder when I analyze these picks it’s all about “Matchups and Motivation”.  I am looking for edges in both as a look at two opponents.  Here are the four other Big Ten Matchups and spreads I am not predicting (Home Team in CAPS).

Other Big Ten Games (4)

#1 Ohio State -25.5 WISCONSIN (41.5 O/U)

#3 INDIANA -27.5 Michigan State (52.5 O/U)

#13 NOTRE DAME -9.5 #20 Usc (61.5 O/U) – like USC to cover, ND to win.

NORTHWESTERN -3.5 Purdue (46.5 O/U)

Week 8 Big Jeff’s Picks of the Week Games (vs the Spread) SUMMARY

Odds per FanDuel

Game 1: #25 Nebraska -7.5 MINNESOTA (47.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

After the big road win at Maryland, Nebraska is in a great place record wise at 5-1 overall, 2-1 in the Big Ten and with a win over current #24 ranked Cincinnati making them a playoff hopeful in the Big Ten.

But there are significant concerns for Nebraska.   Dylan Raiola clearly has made improvements in his 2^nd year starting for Nebraska, but he had 3 interceptions vs. Maryland and in Big Ten he has thrown for 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, after throwing for 8 TDs and 0 interceptions in the 3 non-conference games. 

The Husker’s run defense is also major concern as they are now ranked 2^nd to last in the Big Ten giving up 151 yards/game and just played the worst Big Ten rushing team in Maryland and still gave up 130 yards to the Terps at 4.3 yards/carry, in addition to allowing 249 passing yards.

And despite only allowing one sack to Maryland, they are still near the bottom of the Big Ten, giving up 16 sacks for the year so the trenches in general are a concern for Nebraska.

Minnesota is 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten after a comeback win at home over Purdue 27-20, but the reality is their last 4 games have been a real struggle starting with a 13 point road loss to California, barely beating Rutgers at home by 3, a 39 point drubbing at Ohio State and then the close call 7 point home win over Purdue.  They are fortunate to be 4-2.

Against Purdue, the Gophers were outgained 456 to 262, had only 30 rushing yards and if not for winning the turnover battle 4-1 they likely lose the game.  Minnesota is good on defense but struggling offensively ranking 15^th in the Big Ten (341 ypg) with the biggest culprit not being able to run the ball similar to last year as they rank 16^th in the Big Ten at 112 yards/game and only 3.59 yards/carry.

For the year, Nebraska is 2-4 vs the spread and have lost their last three.  Minnesota is only 1-5 vs the spread and lost their last four.  SP+ has Nebraska 20^th and Minnesota 57^th.

Why Nebraska Can Cover:

1-Nebraska’s biggest strength of their great pass defense matches up really well with Minnesota’s one-dimensional pass-oriented offense which will limit Minnesota’s scoring.

While this should be a true statement, I wrote this exact line last week when Nebraska played Maryland and their Big Ten worst rushing offense, but Maryland had great success passing vs. Nebraska with Terps freshman QB Malik Washington going 27-37 for 249 yards and no interceptions.  So, I changed the heading “elite” pass defense to “great”.

Nebraska still ranks first in the Big Ten in pass defense (118 ypg), while Minnesota only rushes for 112 yards/game (16^th in conference), but have a solid passing game at 11^th in the Big Ten (229 ypg). Bottom line is Nebraska is equipped to contain what Minnesota does best on offense which is the passing game.

2-Unlike Minnesota, Nebraska’s offense has good balance, making them harder to defend with a running game that seems to be improving week to week.

Nebraska is 5^th in the Big Ten at 450 yards/game, second in pass offense (310 ypg), and 11^th in the Big Ten in rushing (140 ypg) but they are averaging 6.2 yards/carry and against a good Maryland defense, running back Emmett Johnson rushed for 176 yards on 8.4 yards/carry.  That 6.2 yards/carry is the best in Rhule’s 3 years at Nebraska and Johnson is second in Big Ten rushing, behind only Justice Haynes, with 650 yards, 6.2 yards/carry and 7 touchdowns.

3-In general, I think Nebraska has more momentum on the season and likely more confidence than Minnesota has.

Why Take the Points with Minnesota:  

Despite Minnesota’s relative struggles they still are very tough at home winning 5 of their past 6 Big Then games at home.

This year the Gophers are 2-0 at home in the Big Ten and last year won 3 of their last 4 in the Big Ten including almost beating Penn State 26-25.  I think the Gophers are even tougher at night and this will be a Friday night game.

Against tougher defenses Dylan Raiola is more likely to make poor passing decisions and suffer turnovers and the Gophers have the type of defenders that can take advantage.

We gave the stat already that in 3 Big Ten games, Raiola has thrown 5 interceptions.  Minnesota is +5 in turnovers, just got 3 interceptions vs. Purdue and has playmakers like Koi Perich who is in his second year and already has 6 career interceptions. 

There is nothing else that sticks out from Minnesota to list as a distinct advantage over Nebraska in this game.  It’s promising for the Gophers that Nebraska seems to be just barely winning away from home.

Big Jeffs Call: Both teams have been terrible vs. the spread at a combined 3-9 so something has got to give.  On the road against a well-coached team, and an over/under of 47.5 points which is pretty low, I think Nebraska as a 7.5-point favorite feels like too many points.

I am going to lean toward Nebraska winning but not getting the cover.   Nebraska 24 Minnesota 20.  Confidence: Medium

Game 2: MICHIGAN -5.5 Washington (50.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

Michigan is 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten and coming off an extremely disappointing loss at USC 31-13 in which they were mostly physically beaten in the trenches. 

It was a major missed opportunity for the Wolverines to position themselves for the playoffs since the rest of their schedule is not overly difficult, ranking 42^nd toughest in the nation per PFF and 6^th easiest in the Big Ten.  Now they can’t afford to lose another game.

Washington is 5-1 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten and have bounced back from the loss to Ohio State very nicely with a comeback win at Maryland and last week in a 19-point win over Rutgers. 

It’s ridiculous that Washington is not ranked given their only loss to the #1 Buckeyes (they are 28^th in votes), but a win at Michigan will ensure not just a Top 25 ranking but positions the Huskies to possibly make the playoffs as they have the 5^th easiest remaining schedule in the Big Ten per PFF, with the toughest game the final one vs. Oregon.

For the year Washington is 3-3 against the spread while Michigan is 2-4, including losing their last two.  ESPN’s SP+ has Washington and Michigan right next to each other ranking 21^st and 22^nd respectively.

Why Michigan Can Cover:

Michigan’s offense, believe it or not, is mostly statistically better than even the 2023 National Title team and significantly better than last year and can score enough to win if they get a better defensive effort.

Offense has NOT been the problem for Michigan this year, it’s been the drop off in defense that has been the issue – and we cover that a little later in reason’s why Washington can cover.

Here are some stats over 3 years including Michigan’s national rank:

Michigan’s Offensive Statistics the Past 3 Years

The improvement in Michigan’s offense over last year is dramatic including even rushing stats per game going from 157 yards to 216 yards and total offense going from a national rank of 129^th to 49^th.

Even vs the 2023 National Championship year, Michigan is rushing for more yards and total offense has gone from 383 to 418 yards/game.  This really shows the huge impact freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood and RB Justice Haynes has had.

There is a travel impact when Big Ten teams have to play road games traveling multiple time zones and that certainly has impacted Washington.

In general, Washington went 0-5 on the road last year including Eastern time zone losses at Rutgers, Iowa, Indiana and Penn State.  This year the Huskies played Maryland and sleepwalked through the first half leading to a 20-3 deficit they eventually overcome to win 24-20.   But if Maryland had a better run game, the Huskies likely would not have won.

Also, Washington had an early week 3 bye so this is the 5^th game in a row for the Huskies and they may be mentally drained and the game kicks off at Noon which is 9 am time for Washington an early start makes the travel impact maybe even a bigger factor in this game.

Why take the points with Washington: 

Similar to USC last week, Washington has a balanced and pretty dynamic offense going against a Michigan defense that clearly is not as good as the last 3-year versions of Wolverine defenses

Based on Michigan standards, the Wolverines defense has really struggled this year and got manhandled by USC.  They gave up 31 points to USC that easily could have been worse along with 489 total yards including 224 rushing yards at 6.2 yards/carry. 

Michigan has also given up 17 to New Mexico, 24 to Oklahoma and 27 to Nebraska.  They rate 10^th in Big Ten total defense (318/game), 10^th in pass defense, 6^th in rush defense (102 ypg) and 8^th in scoring defense (18.7 points/game).

These are very subpar numbers for a Michigan defense. 

Meanwhile Washington has a very good and balanced offense that is 3rd in the Big Ten in total offense (469 yards/game), 4^th in the Big Ten in pass offense (280 ypg), and 5^th in rushing offense (189 ypg) yards/game, led by Jonah Coleman with 518 yards, 5.4 ypc, 11 TDs that leads the nation.

Washington is led by dynamic QB Demond Williams, Jr. who ESPN has with the 4^th best quarterback rating in the Big Ten and has 10 TDs with just 1 interception, along with 382 yards rushing.  Washington’s offense is going to be difficult for Michigan to contain.

The key to beating Michigan is containing Michigan’s explosive running game led by Justice Haynes and Washington’s defense statistically looks like they can contain that rushing attack.

Haynes is 5^th in the nation and leads the Big Ten in rushing with 705 yards at 7.4 yards/carry and 8 touchdowns.  I personally feel he’s the best running back in the nation because Michigan’s offensive line has been pretty average.  Haynes is currently questionable for the Washington game, but Sherrone Moore was optimistic he could play.

Washington has the 2^nd best run defense in the Big Ten giving up only 83 yards/game and PFF statistics show Washington’s defensive line is good across all 4 positions.

Big Jeff’s Call: This is a tough call and a lot of variables for this game so I would not bet it.  How does Washington handle the travel this week?  Does Michigan come out angry after a bad loss to USC?  And then we have the unknown if elite Michigan running back Justice Haynes will play because he an irreplaceable player.

Michigan only beat a terrible Wisconsin team by 14 at home and did not look good vs. USC.  But if Sherrone Moore loses this game, he is going to find himself on the hotseat and Michigan will be looking at a second major disappointing season.  Also, not just the travel for Washington but playing their 5^th week in a row on the road is a major factor here, therefore I am taking Michigan to win and barely cover.  Michigan 31 Washington 24. Confidence:  Low

Game 3: #8 Oregon -17.5 RUTGERS (60.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

Oregon is now 5-1 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten and the key question is how do they bounce back traveling 3 time zones to play struggling Rutgers after a surprising home loss to Indiana?

Although the Big Ten Championship game is in question now, the Ducks are still in excellent position to make the playoffs with a reasonable remaining Big Ten schedule.

Rutgers meanwhile is reeling after three straight losses by 10, 3 and 19 points last week at Washington.  They are 3-3 overall and 0-3 in the Big Ten and their remaining schedule ranks 9^th toughest in the nation per PFF and 6^th toughest in the Big Ten.  Rutgers is going to have to pull off some upsets to find the 3 more wins to be bowl eligible.

For the year, Oregon is 4-2 against the spread, while Rutgers is 3-3.  ESPN’s SP+ has Oregon ranked #2 and right above Indiana despite the loss to the Hoosiers and Rutgers is rated 50^th which is 12^th in the Big Ten.

Why Oregon Can Cover:

Oregon is one of the few Big Ten teams who has NOT struggled traveling multiple time zones East to play conference games so that factor is likely much less in this game than for other teams.

Last year, Oregon traveled East beating Purdue by 35, Michigan by 21 and only struggled beating Wisconsin by 3 but that was late in the season.  This year Oregon won at Northwestern by 20 and of course had the huge overtime 6-poiint win in the White Out night game at Penn State.  

If Oregon doesn’t cover, I don’t think it will be from the travel and especially with the game at 6:30 pm EST.

Rutgers has the Big Ten’s worst defense against Oregon’s balanced offense ranked 4^th in the Big Ten so there is little chance Rutgers can hold down the Ducks offense.

Oregon is 4^th in Big Ten offense (464 ypg) and average 251 passing yards and 213 rushing yards.  That’s about as balanced as you can get.

For Rutgers not only do they have the worst overall defense, they are dead last in pass defense (249 ypg) and 14^th in rush defense (136 ypg).  This means Rutgers defense doesn’t really do anything well and that is a bad formula against a team like Oregon who can adapt their game plan to whatever a defense is trying to do to them.

Oregon’s strength in pass defense matches up well against Rutgers offensive strength of their passing offense.

Strength on strength.  Oregon’s defense is really good ranking 4^th best in the Big Ten giving up 253 yards/game but their pass defense is where they thrive ranking 2^nd in the Big Ten giving up just 139 yards/game.  All Oregon’s defensive backs rank really well per PFF in pass coverage, with the exception of Safety Aaron Flowers.

They will be going against a Rutgers offense that is 6^th in Big Ten total offense and 3^rd in Big Ten passing at 309 yards/game, plus a strong and deep wide receiver core.

Why take the points with Rutgers:

The Rutgers offense is really good and led by an experienced quarterback in Athan Kaliakmanis with great weapons, so they are going to put up points on this Oregon defense.

The Rutgers offense has thrived at home averaging 46 points/game in 3 non-conference games and put up 28 points on a very good Iowa defense.  They have great WR weapons with 3 guys over 394 yards receiving led by Ian Strong’s 537 yards.  And Kaliakmanis has 11 TDs and 3 interceptions and completing a career high 66% of his passes.

Plus, they have a talented running back in Antwan Raymond who averages 5.5 yards/carry including 250 yards over the last two games at Minnesota and Washington.  Rutgers running game is getting better as the season progresses.

Big Jeff’s Call: Oregon giving up 17.5 points on the road to a strong offense like Rutgers is lot to ask.  In cases like this it may be best to work backwards and start with how many points Rutgers might score.   

Oregon is giving up 15.2 points/game and 23 points/game in Big Ten play after giving up 14 to Northwestern, 24 to Penn State in OT and 30 to Indiana.   I think Rutgers knows to win this game they have to score a lot of points, so I expect a very aggressive gameplan and they score 24 points. 

Oregon would then need to score 42 to cover and I think they just exceed that with 45. The other factor is now that Oregon has lost, Dan Lanning knows they need style points so if Oregon gets ahead, they are less likely to take their foot off the gas. Oregon wins and covers. Oregon 45 Rutgers 24. Confidence: Medium

Game 4: IOWA -2.5 Penn State (39.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

I am not shocked James Franklin got fired because the fact Penn State lost 3 in a row including back-to-back at UCLA and home vs. Northwestern is unimaginable.  Penn State goes in 3-3 overall, 0-3 in the Big Ten.  Insult to injury is senior quarterback Drew Allar is out for the season now.

The big question is what is their mindset now under interim coach Terry Smith?  Will it be let’s leverage all this talent we still have, change things up and go out and win out?  Or is it more let’s just play with pride, right the ship and salvage the season?  If I am Terry Smith, I set high expectations and say let’s win out.  But, it’s really hard to project what type of team we see from Penn State at Iowa.

Iowa is 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten after coming off embarrassing their hated rival Wisconsin in their place 37-0.   Given what Indiana just did in winning at Oregon, it makes Iowa’s 5-point loss to Indiana look really good.  Iowa seems to be getting better as the year moves along and key to that is the improvement of quarterback Mark Gronowski who returned from injury vs the Badgers.

Incredibly, Penn State is 0-6 against the spread this year and Iowa is 4-1-1 including covering 4 in a row which really show the momentum they have had.  ESPN SP+ has Penn State rated 18^th and Iowa is 25^th.

Why take the points with Iowa:

Iowa’s run oriented offense, and strong offensive line matches up extremely well with the Penn State’s defense who have been shockingly weak against the run.

With the 109^th toughest schedule in the nation so far, guess where Penn State’s defense stands in total yards/game given up and rushing defense? 

• Total Defense: PSU is 22^nd in the nation and 6^th in the Big Ten giving up 302 yards/game.
• Rushing Defense: PSU is 70th in the nation and 15^th in the Big Ten giving up 144 yards/game.  Pretty incredible.

Iowa meanwhile averages 184 rushing yards/game which is 6^th in the Big Ten, average 4.7 yards/carry, and have a deep running back room with 3 running backs with at least 198 yards rushing and Kamari Moulton is back healthy and had 96 yards against Wisconsin (6.4 ypc).

And then I have talked several times about how highly ranked all of Iowa’s offensive line ranks in PFF.  That’s a very tough matchup for an undersized PSU defensive line.

Iowa’s defense is stingy as always and unless we see a very different Penn State offense, and with an inexperienced quarterback starting, the Nittany Lions are not going to be able to score many points.

Iowa is 3^rd in the Big Ten and 8^th in the nation allowing 247 points/game.  Plus, Iowa is 1^st in the Big Ten (taking over for Wisconsin) in Big Ten run defense yielding only 79 yards/game, which is a great match versus Penn State who will be starting an inexperienced freshman quarterback and more likely to try to rely on their run game vs. aggressively passing. 

Add to it, Iowa’s famous zone pass defense under Norm Parker is difficult to play against even for experienced quarterbacks.  So, if Penn State can’t run the ball, they will really be in trouble.

Why Penn State Can Cover: 

With all the changes, I am not going with a bunch of reasons for Penn State except this.

Any team starting with a relative clean slate like Penn State is doing is extremely hard to predict so it’s very plausible we see a different team from Penn State vs. what we have seen this year.

We have seen this happen many times.  Of course, UCLA is the prime example who after the DeShaun Foster firing lost to Northwestern but then shocked Penn State 42-37 two weeks ago and have now won two in a row.  But when an interim coach is named, it sometimes ignites a fire from a team who under a new voice and maybe a new game plan philosophy delivers much different results. 

Add to it Penn State will be starting a new quarterback in freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer who has a different skill set than Drew Allar which could bring about a different game plan for Penn State.  And based on how weak Penn State’s offense especially has been why wouldn’t you make significant changes. 

• Maybe Ethan Grunkemeyer throws a much better deep ball than Drew Allar that better takes advantage of Penn State’s wide receiver group?
• Maybe that and a more aggressive game plan better opens up the run game and Penn State leans on Kaytron Allen much more and his 6.7 yards/carry, with Nick Singleton and his 3.7 yards/carry getting way fewer opportunities?  It’s very viable to think Penn State could out Iowa, Iowa in this game in riding Allen to a big win similar to what USC just did to Michigan
• And maybe against a more one-dimensional offense in Iowa, Jim Knowles simplifies things enough for Penn State’s defense to thrive again.

Big Jeff’s Call: As I have said, it’s hard to know what to expect from Penn State.  Maybe they tap into their potential, but I would not rely on that.  More reliable is to assume Iowa will play their typical hard-nosed defense and control the game with their offensive line. 

Plus, Penn State’s weak offense is a good matchup for the Hawkeyes and the Penn State defensive line in the interior is a weakness Iowa can take advantage of.  I like Iowa to win and cover.  Iowa 24 Penn State 17.  Confidence: Medium

Game 5: UCLA -3.5 vs. Maryland (-52.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

This is the UCLA some were expecting this year as the Bruins have won two in a row after thumping Michigan State on the road 38-13 and outgaining the Spartans 418 to 253 to move to 2-4 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten. This is after looking like they may not win a game this but now if they win out, they are in the Big Ten championship game.  The trouble is their remaining schedule is 3^rd toughest in the nation and 2^nd toughest in the Big Ten.

Remember in the pre-season the Bruins were ranked 50^th by ESPN’s SP+, Lindy’s magazine ranked them 57^th and FanDuel had their win total over/under at 5.5.  In two games, the Bruins have averaged 40 points/game and Nico Iamaleava has thrown for 5 TDs with no interceptions and looking more like the #1 transfer portal get he was.

Maryland is feeling much different after their 4-0 start the past two weeks they lost a heartbreaker to Washington after leading 20-0 and again to Nebraska by only 3 points.  Overall, the Terps are 4-2 and 1-2 in the Big Ten but I still think Maryland fans have to feel optimistic given how all the young talent is playing.

The question will be how they respond traveling to the West coast for a road game against a team as hot as UCLA and also playing with great confidence.

On the year Maryland is 4-2 against the spread including not covering the last two, while UCLA is 3-3 vs the spread including 3 straight covers.

Why UCLA can cover: 

The west coast travel factor for Maryland who have yet to play on the West coast this year and only played at Oregon last year losing by 21, favors UCLA.

Until Big Ten teams gain more experience playing games involving multiple time zones and long travel, I will probably always mention this as a significant factor.  Plus, it does not help coming off two tough losses.

Maryland’s struggles under Mike Locksley in October is a real thing.  I made the same statement on Maryland as well last week, but it is true.  Once Mike Locksley gets out of the non-conference season, he struggles big time in October. It happened again last week making it since the start of the 2023 season Maryland is 1-7 in October. 

The last two games UCLA has totally unlocked their run game, which is the key to them looking like such a different team.

Since Foster was fired and Offensive Coordinator Tino Sunseri was also let go, it’s hard to evaluate UCLA’s offense statistically for the year because that’s where UCLA is so different than early in the season but their run game is the difference.

UCLA’s run offense is currently 9^th in the Big Ten at 167 yards/game but the last two games they have run for 269 yards (5.1 ypc) and 238 yards (5.5 ypc) blowing their yearly averages out of the water. 

Against Penn State Nico ran for 128 yards and 3 TDs but they also got 141 yards from their running backs.  Against Michigan State Nico ran only 6 times for 3 yards so it was the running backs who gained 235 yards led by Jalen Burger with 89 yards and transfer Jaivian Thomas who had 54.   Huge kudos to new Bruins OC Jerry Neuheisel for unlocking UCLAs true potential.

Why take the points with Maryland: 

I just bragged about UCLA’s renewed running game but Maryland’s young defensive line is really good and Maryland’s run defense is stingy and capable of containing the Bruins rushing attack and offense.

Maryland gives up only 113 rushing yards/game (9^th in Big Ten) and their overall defense is the real deal as well yielding only 16.8 points/game for 5^th best in the Big Ten.  The defense has yielded more the last two weeks but still gives Maryland a chance to keep this a more low scoring game.

Maryland’s offense is still too heavy pass based but their Big Ten worst rush offense showed signs of life with 130 yards vs Nebraska (4.3 ypc), which if they can get more offensive balance their ceiling is higher.

Overall, Maryland is only 14^th in Big Ten total offense (355 ypg) but it’s mostly driven by their pass game (255 ypg) and QB Malik Washington.  Sophomore Nolan Ray ran for 62 yards at 5.6/carry which was encouraging.  The running game doesn’t have to be great but if it even becomes consistently competent it will increase Malik Washington’s effectiveness and help Maryland better protect leads.

Big Jeff’s Call: I really like this spot for UCLA and don’t like it for Maryland. Beyond what I already covered, it will be the first game since the home opener against Utah that the Bruins will be in front of a positive and relatively excited home crowd. 

So, I am riding the momentum and confidence of UCLA in this one calling them to win and cover in my Lock City game of the week.  UCLA 31 Maryland 24. Confidence: High.