Big Jeff’s Week 12 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week and What Two 16-Team Playoff Models Look Like

Week 11 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 12 picks and cover this week’s special topic of looking at two different 16-team playoff models based on the playoff committee’s second rankings this season, let’s first do a comprehensive review of how I did in Week 11.

(Odds by FanDuel on 11.12.25).

General Comments:

• This week I moved to picking just two games per week choosing one “Big Ten Game of the Week” and then making my “Lock City” pick which is the game I feel most confident in picking against the spread. 
• In Week 11, I went 1-1 winning my Game of the Week pick but losing my Lock City pick (see results Table Below).
• For the season I am 27-25 overall and 5-3 in my Lock City picks.
• Let’s do a quick what I got right and wrong in my Week 11 picks and also draw some insights on those games and others.

What I Got Wrong in Week 11: 

• In my Lock City pick of the week, I took Indiana giving 15.5 points to Penn State predicting a 34-14 win for IU but of course Indiana down by 4 had put together a 2-minute TD drive to win the game 27-24 but not covering the spread.
  • The 10 play, 80 yard drive in 1:15 of course ended in what has to be now the greatest play in the history of Indiana football on 3^rd and goal from the 7 yard line where Fernando Mendoza as he was getting hit launched a pass to the back of the end zone where receiver Omar Cooper, Jr. made one of the most acrobatic catches you will ever see to keep his one foot in the end zone to complete the play.
  • That play might also end up being the play of the year across any sport for something like the ESPY awards.
  • I took Indiana in this one since Penn State was 1-7 vs the spread on the year and IU was 6-3 but that included 3 of their last 4 and 6 of their last 8.
  • Indiana had been on a roll in dominating teams and were leading the nation in scoring margin at 31 points/game and I was going to go with their hot hand until I saw something different.
  • Meanwhile, Penn State was still playing way under their potential in the 2 games coached by Terry Smith and quarterback Evan Grunkemeyer was still getting settled as a starter and Jim Knowles Penn State defense was still struggling.
  • I had said though a reason to like Penn State was their ability to put pressure on Mendoza based on how they were able to do that vs Julian Sayin the week before at OSU, but Sayin’s pocket presence overcame that to have a big day throwing for 4 TDs.
  • In this one, for most of the game PSU held Mendoza in check who went 19-31 for 218 yards but up until the last drive Indiana only had 246 yards of total offense and Mendoza had thrown an interception early in the 4^th quarter which led to a PSU 44 yard drive to take the lead 24-20.
  • Key to the game though was Penn State’s 14^th rated Big Ten rush defense holding in check Indiana’s #1 rated Big Ten rushing attack limiting them to 108 total yards at 3.5 yards/carry.
  • For Indiana the takeaways are, I felt win or lose this game was great for them since to win in the playoffs you will likely need to find a way to win tight games so winning close can be more valuable than winning in a blowout.
  • The fact they pulled it out will give them confidence they can come from behind when needed in big games.
  • On the downside, this game revealed a real weakness for Indiana. In games against talented and physical defensive lines, that Big Ten leading rushing attack has really struggled averaging only 108 yards/game and 3.0 yards/carry against Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.
    • Iowa: 39 for 104 yards; 2.7/carry
    • Oregon: 37 for 111 yards; 3.0/carry
    • Penn State: 31 for 108 yards; 3.5/carry
  • Contrast that with their 4 games against weaker competition where they averaged 268 yards/game and 6.1/carry (Illinois 312, Michigan St 132, UCLA 262, Maryland 367).
  • Indiana badly needs WR Elijah Sarratt back healthy since they aren’t going to just really on a run game vs the top teams like an Ohio State.
  • For Penn State the takeways are it was a devastating 6^th loss in a row but there are strong positives and hope emerged in that they played more to their talent level, Nick Singleton had his first big game of the year (93 total yards, 3 TDs), the defense played much better until that final drive.
  • And maybe most importantly freshman Evan Grunkemeyer had a really good game in just his third start going 22-31 for 219 yards but most importantly started getting the ball down the field which helped open up the running game.
  • Taking out the Ohio State game, Penn State has lost 5 games by a total of 16 points.  It’s why ESPNs SP+ still has Penn St ranked 20^th and in fact that is up from 22^nd the prior week despite losing.
  • There is no reason Penn State can’t finish the year winning their last 3 to go 6-6 with games at Michigan State, vs. Nebraska and at Rutgers.

What I Got Right in Week 11:

• Oregon was a 6.5-point favorite visiting a super-hot Iowa team, and I felt that was just too many points against a stingy Iowa defense and in bad weather conditions which would favor the Hawkeyes style of play so I had Oregon winning by three points, 20-17 and almost nailed the score as Oregon prevailed 18-16. 
  • There were times it looked like Oregon might pull away up 9-0 into the second quarter and 15-7 at the end of the 3^rd quarter but each time Iowa would respond including making a 58-yard FG in the 4^th to close the gap to 15-10 and then completing a 93-yard, 12 play march late in the 4^th quarter scoring with 1:51 left in the game.
  • Unfortunately, Iowa missed on a 2-point conversion pass attempt to keep the score 16-15 Iowa which opened the door to Oregon’s 54 yard drive that ended in the 39-yard game winning field goal by Atticus Sappington.
  • Donte Moore also had an amazing thread the needle pass to J. McClellan for 24 yards on 1^st and 10 at the Oregon 49-yard line with 23 seconds left.  This throw really highlighted the talent and grit of Moore in a clutch moment.
  • Statistically Oregon was the better team outgaining the Hawkeyes 373 to 239 but it was in the run games for both teams that truly told the story for this game.
  • In my prediction, I had written one reason to like Oregon is that their front 4 on defense is highly rated and their statistics for the year and individual games show they are very capable of holding the Iowa rushing offense in check which will limit the Iowa scoring” – with all 4 of their defensive linemen ranking very well per Pro Football Focus.
  • And that is exactly what happened as Iowa rushed for only 101 yards at 2.3 yards/carry despite having an outstanding offensive line.  This is yet another example of how when teams who are one-dimensional face a really good defense they are going to struggle, which is why I talk so often about the benefits of balanced offenses.
  • On the other side, Oregon’s rushing attack was outstanding with 261 total yards at 7.3 yards/carry and all 4 ball carriers including QB Donte Moore all averaged over 6.4 yards/carry led by Senior running back Noah Whittington’s 118 yards.
  • The takeaways for Oregon start with how all this speaks to Oregon’s strength in the trenches on both sides of the ball and if they can get some of their injured skill players healthy, they are not being talked about enough as a team who can win a championship.
  • It also further demonstrated how great Dan Lanning and his staff are since Oregon is now 7-0 in Big Ten play when traveling multiple time zones East to play conference, while all the other former Pac 12 teams have struggled with this.
  • Final thing is how ridiculous it is they dropped a spot in the AP poll after winning a game like this by Ole Miss who beat FCS team the Citadel.
  • For Iowa, it was a heartbreaking third loss and highly likely knocked them out of the playoff picture. 
  • The Hawkeyes have now lost 12 games in a row against ranked opponents since the 2021 season with their last win against a ranked opponent week 6 of the 2021season against No. 4 Penn State (23-20).

Big Jeff’s Week 11 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week and the Narrative Impact from using a Different Top 25.

Forde-Yard Dash: Why 12 Teams in the College Football Playoff Are Enough

My special topic this week is taking the 2^nd Playoff Rankings and modeling 16-team playoff Models

If we first use the proposed 16-Team with Automatic Qualifier (4-4-2-2-1-3) Model and then 16-Team with auto bids only to the four Power 4 Champs and 1 Group of 5 team.

Comments on Automatic Qualifier 4-4-2-2-1+3 Model

In this model the Auto Bids by conference are 4 for the Big Ten and SEC, 2 each for the Big 12 and ACC, and 1 Group of 5 team leaving 3 at large open spots.

• In this model also, for the Big Ten the top 2 teams ranked by the committee get 2 spots and then the other 2 auto bids come from taking the committee rankings of the 3 through 6 teams in the Big Ten and having them play a play in-game.
• So based on the 2^nd Committee Rankings that came out on November 11^th – and looking at the column on the right –  #1 Ohio State and #2 Indiana would be in the field.
• And then the Big Ten play in games would be #3 in Big Ten Oregon (ranked 8^th by the committee) hosting #6 in Big Ten Iowa (who is 6-3 right now) and rated 21 by the committee.
• And the second play in game would be #4 in the Big Ten USC (rated 17^th by the committee), hosting #5 Big Ten Michigan who is rated 18^th by the committee.  This is a replay from Week 7 when Michigan lost 31-13.
• There was also talk of having this similar 4-4-2-2-1+3 model but not having play-in games.
• I like that a lot better.  Do we really need a potential 4 loss or worse Big Ten team getting the 6^th place spot and beating the 3 seed to get into the playoff field?  I think that is ridiculous and only would further devalue the regular season games.
• So for simplification here, let’s look at how many teams make it by conference if you don’t have any of the play in games.
• Looking at the left column, I put in colored rows by conference the teams that would make it.  The Big Ten is in Green, SEC in brown shades, ACC in dark blue and Big 12 in light blue.
• Bottom right shows the SEC gets 6 teams with the 4 auto qualifiers of Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss, plus #10 Texas and #11 Oklahoma getting 2 of the 3 at-large bids.
• The Big Ten gets just their 4 auto qualifiers in which would be #1 Ohio State #2 Indiana, #8 Oregon and #17 USC.
• The Big 12 gets their 2 of #6 Texas Tech and #12 BYU.
• The ACC gets their 2 autobids of #15 Miami and #16 Georgia Tech.
• The 3^rd at large bid goes to #9 Notre Dame and then the 1 Group of 5 team is #24 South Florida.
• In this model, the 2 teams that just miss out are #13 Utah from the Big 12 and #14 Vanderbilt from the SEC and then Michigan at #18 is the first Big Ten team out.
• This shows how the ACC is pretty lucky to get 2 in the field given how mediocre their teams are.
• The SEC would not have much to complain about with 6 teams in the field and the Group of 5 team is likely always going to feel thankful to get in.
• For the Big Ten to get 5 teams in they would probably need to have their 5^th ramked team about as high as 11 or 12 ranking it looks like.
• And let’s remember currently in the 12-team field this year, the Big Ten would currently get in just 3 teams – OSU, IU, and Oregon.  The SEC 5, Big12 and ACC 1 each, Notre Dame, and S. Florida for Group of 5.

Now lets look at a second 16-team model. Many various models have been proposed so in this one I am assuming a 16-Team Model where the Power 4 Conference winners get a big, and 1 group of 5 team, and then the rest is taking the next 11 highest ranked teams per the committee.

• This one is much more simple for everyone to understand and includes no playin games and is based on taking the 4 Power 4 conference champs and the highest ranked Group of 5 school and the other 11 seeds are at large teams.
• Playing this one out we get only 3 Big Ten teams in that is Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon with the closest #17 USC who would need to be #14 to make it in as the 4^th team.
• The SEC would get 7 teams in –  with the last one being #14 Vanderbilt.  Yup, the nightmare scenario for the Big Ten and is why the Big Ten advocated so hard for the model of 4 Big Ten auto bids.
• I think in this model it’s safe to say any Big Ten team finishing with just 2 losses is very highly likely to make this field.
• The Big 12 gets 3 teams of Texas Tech, BYU and Utah so they would feel pretty damn good but the poor old ACC would only barely get one team #15 Miami in.
• There are years the ACC would like to get 2 automatically in and this is shaping up as one of those years.
• Finally we have Notre Dame grabbing a spot at #9 as an Independent and the Group of 5 is still #24 rated South Florida.
• I think a major negative of this more open model is it will discourage teams from playing tough non-conference games as risking a 3^rd loss.
• That could come back to haunt even USC this year for losing at Notre Dame and I think it would in this model.
• A big benefit of the 4 auto bids for the Big Ten is increases the chance we play better non-conference games.

The third topic is my picks of the week.

Week 12 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 11.12.25.

This week we have 8 games in the Big Ten (see Table below).  Just like last week instead of analyzing and predicting 5 games each week, I am covering just 2 games to allow room for more topics.

My Big Ten game of the week which is Iowa at USC in the Green row as a 6.5 point underdog.  And then my “Lock City” pick in the light purple row with Indiana at home giving 30.5 points to Wisconsin.

Comments on these Big Ten games:

• Only 2 of the 8 games have single digit spreads and 3 spreads that are at least 23.5 points which speaks to how we have too many bad “bottom feeder” teams in the Big Ten right now.
• In contrast the SEC has 6 conference games this week, with 4 of them as single digit spreads and the biggest spread is Texas A&M favored by 18.5 over South Carolina.
• On the plus side though, a factor for sure on these large spreads is the Big Ten’s top 3 teams in Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon clearly look better than the top SEC teams but if when I look at both ESPN SP+ and PFF Team rankings they confirm the Top of the Big Ten is great but the bottom of the Big Ten is really bad and definitely worse than the SEC.
• It’s pretty sad the Featured 3:30 CBS game with Gary Danielson and Brad Nessler is Penn State at Michigan State who have a combined Big Ten record of 0-12.  Both teams are 3-6 overall so whoever loses this one is eliminated from bowl contention – could this really happen to Penn State?
  • I think they found something last week with Gronkemeyer and Singleton finally had a good games so I like Penn State to cover the 6.5 points against a bad Spartans team.
• I see 4 Big Ten games here that should have little doubt who will win: Oregon over Minnesota, Illinois over Maryland, Washington over Purdue and Ohio State over UCLA.
• I think Michigan at Northwestern is a really interesting game because the Wildcats are much better suited to play a physical, running based team like Michigan than a team like USC last week who has outstanding wide receivers and passing game.
  • This game opened on Sunday with Michigan as 9.5-point favorites but that is up to 12.5 points now – it’s rare to see a 3-point jump like that.

Big Ten Game of the Week: #19 USC -6.5 vs. #20 IOWA (49.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

This is such a compelling game because it’s two teams who win in very different ways.  USC leads the nation in passing offense and is about as dynamic on offense as any team in the nation.  Iowa is all about the trenches and they have the worst passing offense in the Big Ten but win in the margins with few turnover and penalties and excellent special teams. 

Plus, USC comes in feeling great after beating Northwestern 38-17 last week, while of course Iowa had the heartbreaking last second loss at home to Oregon on a field goal.  After getting virtually eliminated from the playoffs last week, Iowa can return the favor eliminating a west coast Big Ten team and breaking their 12-game losing streak to ranked teams.

USC comes in 7-2 overall and 5-1 in the Big Ten with their sole loss at Illinois 34-32.  USC should be the 4^th Big Ten team to make the playoffs if they win out over Iowa, at Oregon and vs UCLA. 

Iowa is 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Big Ten but their two conference losses are by 5 to #2 ranked Indiana and of course the 2-point loss to #8 Oregon and their 3 total losses are by a combined 10 points.

ESPN SP+ has USC ranked 12^th in the nation including the #1 ranked offense, while Iowa at #15 per SP+ is not far behind and boasts the nation’s 6^th ranked defense.  The two teams are separated by just 2.0 SP+ rating points (19.2 vs 17.2).

For the year USC is 5-4 against the spread but have covered 3 of the last 4 games, while Iowa is 6-2-1 vs the spread and covered 6 of the last 7 games.

Why USC Can Cover:

1-USC plays like a Top 10 team at home and in the Big Ten are 6-1 at home with their only loss in overtime last year to Penn State 33-30 and there is the west coast travel factor for Iowa.

This year USC is 3-0 at home and have mostly dominated their opponents beating Michigan State by 14, 18^th ranked Michigan by 18 and Northwestern by 21 last week.  At home they get that ideal weather for their multi-dimensional offense to thrive and just in general play with more confidence.

Iowa meanwhile will have to travel a long way West which Big Ten teams have struggled with, and Iowa lost to an under .500 UCLA team last year 20-17 in their only trip out west.

2-It’s very difficult to contain a dynamic and explosive offense like USC who has NFL caliber receivers and tight ends and a play caller (in Lincoln Riley) who knows how to create mismatches, and Iowa has struggled with this in the past.

Watching Riley’s innovative offense vs. Norm Parker’s fundamentally sound defense is going to be a fun watch.  But one key reason why Iowa has lost to 12 straight ranked opponents is because Top 25 teams are more likely to have higher powered offenses with better skill players like at wide receiver and Iowa is not able to keep up in scoring with these teams.  That is the scenario they face vs USC this week.

USC is 2^nd in the nation (1^st in Big Ten) in Total Offense at 503 yards/game, 1st in Big Ten passing at 303 yards/game led by WR Makai Lemon’s 937 yards, and 4^th in Big Ten rushing at 200 yards/game at 5.8 yards/carry led by freshman running back King Miller at 636 yards and 7.9 ypc.  USC is also 7^th in the nation (2^nd in Big Ten) with 39.6 points/game.

USC is just so hard to stop on offense because they do practically everything well.

3-I was going to list as a reason to like Iowa over USC is that Iowa is better “in the margins” or key game statistics like turnovers and key conversion rates but the numbers show USC is actually better here. 

Here are some key stats that impact winning football games:

• Turnover ratio: Iowa is +4 but USC is +3 so that mostly is a wash. 
• Net Punting: Surprisingly USC is better here at 68^th in nation and 39.7 net yards/punt  vs Iowa at 100^th in nation at 37.7 net yards.
• 4^th down conversion rate: USC is 14^th in nation (.706) only slightly behind Iowa who is 13^th (.714) and 2^nd best in the Big Ten. 
• Red Zone Defense: USC is 3^rd in the nation (2^nd in Big Ten next to Ohio State) in giving up scores at 67.9%; while Iowa is 35^th in nation at 78.9%. 
• Red Zone Offense: USC is 11^th in the nation (2^nd in the Big Ten) scoring 93.3% of the time; Iowa is a good but worse 20^th in the nation (3^rd in Big Ten) at 91.9%.

So this Iowa team does not really do the small things better than USC, which is usually important to pull the upset when you are playing a more talented overall team.

Why Take the Points with Iowa:  

1-Iowa’s great offensive line and physicality is a tough matchup for USC’s defensive line which rates as mostly average giving them hope they can run the ball well and control the clock.

I have talked about this many times with Iowa, but their offensive line rates great across the board per PFF with all 5 of their starters grading out in the Top 10 among Big Ten offensive linemen.   The issue I feel is because Iowa has the worst passing offense in the Big Ten (133 ypg) and 4^th worst in the nation, other teams just can bring up their safeties and load the box to stop the run, making their run stats not as strong as they could be. 

It makes it kind of amazing frankly Iowa is 10^th in Big Ten scoring offense at 29.6 points/game and as mentioned last week that figure is way better than the last 3 years and especially the 15.4 they averaged 2 years ago.

USC is 12^th in Big Ten Total Defense (347 ypg), but a pretty respectable 10^th in Big Ten rushing defense (142 ypg).  USC’s defensive line rates as very average beyond right end senior Anthony Lucas.  USC is good at generating sacks tied for 18^th in the nation with 24 but against Iowa that is not going to be a major factor.

2-If Iowa can run the ball, control the clock, and keep their defense off the field and stay fairly fresh they have the type of defense that can keep them in this game and win it.

Despite struggling to stop the run vs Oregon, Iowa’s defense is still really good and fundamentally sound.  They are 3^rd in Big Ten Total Defense (250 ypg), 4^th in passing defense (147 ypg) and 4^th in rushing defense (104 ypg).  Plus, they are third in scoring defense at 13.7 points/game.  I think the key is Iowa can’t let USC run all over them like the Ducks did.

3-Iowa has an advantage in hidden yards and they are going to need that in a big way in this game to win the field position battle vs. USC, especially giving their pass challenged offense shorter fields to work with.

Below are the areas where Iowa is clearly better than USC and senior punt and kick returner Kaden Wetjen is the reason driving the punt and kick return numbers and Iowa needs him to impact this game. 

Wetjen is 2^nd in the nation in punt returns averaging 24.4 yards/return and is first in the nation in combined kickoff and punt return yards at 674 (283 KO, 391 punt).

• Penalty yards/game: Iowa 1^st in nation at 20.3 yards/game with only 20 penalties in 9 games; USC is 75th in the nation at 56 yards/game with 57 penalties (difference 36 yards).
• Kickoff Returns: Iowa is 13^th in nation (2^nd in Big Ten) at 26 yards/return; USC is 110^th at 17 yards/return
• Punt Returns: Iowa is 2^nd in nation (1^st in Big Ten) at 26 yards/return; USC is 85^th in nation at 7.4 yards/return

Big Jeff’s Call: Iowa must run the ball really well to hang with USC in this game and go for it on 4^th down whenever possible.  Then they need to score touchdowns and not field goals when they get in the red zone where Iowa is 20^th in the nation in red zone offense so that gives the Hawkeyes hope.

But I don’t like this matchup for Iowa with USC’s high powered, and highly skilled balanced offense.  Plus, Iowa is coming off a disappointing loss and has to travel west to play a USC team that plays much better at home and is in a good spot to make the playoffs.

Iowa should hang with USC for a while, but I think that defense will tire and not be able to contain the Trojans who will pull away.  I like USC to win and cover and in fact would have probably taken this as my Lock City pick if it weren’t the Big Ten game of the week. USC 34 Iowa 20.  Confidence: High

Big Jeff’s “Lock City” Pick of the Week: #2 INDIANA -29.5 Wisconsin (43.5 FanDuel O/U)

Background:

This is an intriguing matchup because both teams actually have some wind in their sails.

Indiana at 10-0 overall and 7-0 in the Big Ten is feeling sky high after getting their first win ever at Penn State and with a final minute touchdown that will make this potentially the most memorable football game in IU history.  Curt Cignetti is now an incredible 22-2 at Indiana while Luke Fickell in contrast is 15-19 in his third season in Madison.

All the Hoosiers need to do is beat 3-6 Wisconsin and then at 2-8 Purdue and they are in the Big Ten Championship game and will have certainly clinched their spot in the 12-team playoff field.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 3-6 overall and 1-5 in the Big Ten after breaking a 6-game losing streak and upsetting #23 ranked Washington 13-10 at home.  With Luke Fickell now officially being retained for at least another season in Madison, and with the big win over the Huskies, I think this Badger team comes into Bloomington with a lot of momentum and maybe even a chip on their shoulder being such a big underdog.

ESPN’s SP+ has Indiana ranked #2 including the #5 offense and #4 defense, while Wisconsin is ranked 90^th which is the worst among all Big Ten teams.  SP+ has the ranking points at a 32.1 difference (27.7 minus -4.4).

Year-to-date Wisconsin is 4-5 vs the spread but have covered their last 2 games, while Indiana is 6-4 vs the spread. 

Why Indiana Can Cover:

1-How many points can this Wisconsin offense, who can’t pass the ball and will likely be starting freshman quarterback Carter Smith, realistically score against Indiana’s 5^th best national (3^rd in the Big Ten) Total Defense?

The evaluation of this game really should start with this question.  Wisconsin is last in the Big Ten and second last in the nation (133^rd) in Total Offense at 256 yards/game.  The Badgers also are last in the Big Ten and 3^rd to last in the nation in scoring at 12.6 points/game.  They are 2^nd to last in both Big Ten passing (141 ypg) and Big Ten rushing (115 ypg).  In other words, the Badgers don’t do anything good on offense.

Indiana’s defense is 4^th in the Big Ten in Total Defense (257 ypg), 6^th in passing defense (173 ypg) and most importantly are second in Big Ten run defense yielding just 84 yards/game.  With Wisconsin starting the freshman QB Carter Smith, the fourth QB to play for the Badgers this year, you know they are going to try to run the ball and play a slow pace to keep the ball from Indiana’s offense.

Wisconsin’s offensive line is playing better but they still rate average at best per PFF across all 5 positions and Indiana’s defensive line and all 11 starters for that matter rank well above average per PFF.  Plus, Wisconsin’s running back room has had many injuries with their best running back Dilin Jones still likely out, so I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin having great success running the ball.

In 6 Big Ten games Wisconsin scored 10, 10, 0, 0, 7 and 13 for 40 total points or 6.7 points/game.  Let’s say Wisconsin scores 7 this game, then they need to hold Indiana to 36 or under to cover, while the IU offense averages 44.5 points.

2-Despite some key injuries, Indiana’s offense is 2^nd best in the Big Ten and very well balanced (with only Oregon likely more balanced) and if they get out to a good lead don’t be surprised if Cignetti and his staff stay very aggressive increasing chances for a cover.

Indiana has the type of offense where they can get out to a fast start and a lead and when that happens this staff tends to smell blood in the water and stay aggressive.  This becomes a deadly combo because of how well Indiana both runs the ball (2^nd in Big Ten at 232 ypg) and throws the ball (5^th in Big Ten at 255 ypg).  They have run up scores some because weaker defenses have not been able to slow down their rushing attack. 

Another factor is what if Cignetti wants to pad the stats of Mendoza so that is another factor that could make them stay aggressive and cover this large spread.

Why Take the Points with Wisconsin:  

1-Against really good QBs with outstanding receivers Wisconsin has struggled the last two years but with #1 Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt likely out this game Indiana’s passing attack is way less effective, and they likely would like to lean into their run game more which is the strength of this physical and good Wisconsin’s defense.

Wisconsin is 11^th in Big Ten Total Defense (331 ypg) but getting better as the year goes along and importantly their run defense has been good all season ranking 7^th in the Big Ten giving up only 111 yards/game.  Key has been the play of a senior and then a couple young players stepping up.

The Badgers two freshman linebackers Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano are playing great and the PFF numbers reflect that.  In fact, PFF ranks Posa number one in the Big Ten across ALL defensive positions.  And Catalano is from Germantown High School in Wisconsin, the school where my 3 nephews went and he is the all-time tackles leader in Wisconsin high school history. 

Senior end Mason Reiger ranks 12^th among all Big Ten defensive players, (and 4^th among ends) and last week led the nation in pressures with 9 vs Washington, and with 34 pressures on the year good for 2^nd in the Big Ten. 

Also of note is Wisconsin runs a 3-3-5 defensive scheme similar to Old Dominion who limited Indiana to their 4^th lowest yards/play (5.6) this season in Week 1.

2-Indiana has some key injuries, in addition to star receiver Elijah Sarratt, star left guard Drew Evans is likely out and his replacement redshirt freshman Adedamola Ajani ranks as weak, so I think Indiana’s offense won’t be as effective holding down their scoring.

Indiana destroys teams with weaker defenses scoring 63 vs Illinois, 56 vs UCLA, and 55 vs Maryland.  But against stronger defenses it’s a different story and Indiana also tends to lean into their run game more shortening games. 

They scored 20 vs Iowa, 30 vs Oregon and 27 vs Penn State which comes to 26 points/game for those 3 games.  I have a hard time seeing Indiana playing Sarratt even if he is close to being able to come back because they need him so badly for the playoffs.

I think Indiana will need to score close to 40 to cover which is going to be difficult given the injuries vs this Badger defense.

3-Getting that home win over a ranked Washington team last week not only will provide a huge mental lift to the Badgers but it will raise their confidence quite a bit and I think they will play really hard at Indiana, which they have not done in all games.

Wisconsin knows they are a huge underdog but they are playing so many young players, I feel those young players won’t get discouraged even if the Badgers struggle offensively like I think.  IU will get Wisconsin’s best shot.

Big Jeff’s Call: I think Wisconsin will come into this game with more energy and confidence than possibly all season.  Wisconsin’s offense is way too weak to pull off an upset here, but with Sarratt’s injury Indiana’s passing offense is less effective so I can see IU being a little more conservative and relying on the run game more which will shorten the game.  And the Badgers run defense behind those young linebackers is good enough to slow down the Hoosiers run attack to help hold down the scoring. 

But a couple unknown variables are will Indiana come out a little flat after the huge Penn State come from behind emotional win?  And also will Cignetti stay aggressive to pad the stats for Fernando Mendoza’s Heisman candidacy? 

Given how physical the Badger defense can play I think Cignetti will be fairly conservative and limit the chance for Mendoza to get hurt. This is why I like the Badgers to cover.  But for that to happen it is imperative for Wisconsin to get out to a fast start.  Indiana 35 Wisconsin 7.  Confidence: High.