Big Jeff’s Week 14 Big Ten Football Picks – “Rivalry Week”

Week 13 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 14 picks, let’s first do a review of how I did in Week 13.

(Odds by FanDuel on 11.25.25).

General Comments:

• In Week 13, I went 1-1 for the 3^rd week in a row winning my Game of the Week pick for the USC/Oregon game but losing my Lock City pick from the Minnesota/Northwestern game (see results Table Below).
• For the season I am 29-27 overall and 6-4 in my Lock City picks.
• Let’s do a quick review of what I got right and wrong in my Week 13 picks and also draw some insights on those games and others.

What I Got Wrong in Week 13: 

• In my Lock City pick of the week, I took Northwestern as a 3.5-point FanDuel favorite at home at Wrigley Field over Minnesota projecting a 24-17 Northwestern win.  Northwestern won but only 38-35.
  • This game had the lowest over/under of any Big Ten game at 40.5 points but turned into a shootout as the teams combined for 34 points at the half (MN led 21-13) and finished with 73 points almost doubling up the over/under.
  • Statistically the Wildcats dominated outgaining the Gophers 525 to 323 and winning time of possession 41 minutes to 19 minutes for Minnesota.
  • I had liked the Wildcats so much because Minnesota had been 0-4 on the road losing by an average of 30 points/game and how Minnesota had the 2^nd worst offense in the Big Ten and no ability to consistently run the ball with the Big Ten’s worst run offense.
  • True to form, Minnesota ran for 59 yards total at 3.5 yards/carry and QB Drake Lindsey had a great day and was the main reason the Gophers were able to keep up with the Wildcats as Lindsey was 20-30 for 264 yards with 4 TDs and 0 interceptions.
  • Meanwhile, Northwestern’s offense was very effective and well balanced with QB Preston Stone having probably his best game of the year going 25-30 for 305 yards and 2 TDs.  
  • Stone came into the game completing less than 60% of his passes and only had 2 other games where he even threw for over 200 yards and both were in the non-conference against Western Illinois and University Louisiana Monroe.
  • And then Northwestern’s run game was just excellent with 220 yards total led by running back Caleb Komolafe who continues to impress running for 129 at 5.9 yards/carry and he’s now 4^th in the Big Ten in rushing with 886 yards.
  • Key Insights for Northwestern is this win makes them 6-5 and bowl eligible and I have to say David Braun and this team has done much better than I and many thought as their FanDuel over/under was only 3.5 wins and I had the Wildcats going only 3-9.  Credit to Zack who had them going 6-6.
  • This tells us the future of Northwestern football looks very bright under David Braun’s leadership.
  • For Minnesota, it’s just so perplexing how bad their rushing offense has been not just this year where they rank last in the Big Ten just barely over 100 yards rushing/game and are 126^th in the nation after being 109^th in rushing last year.
  • PJ Fleck needs to get that run game back to at least respectable for Minnesota to have success going forward.

What I Got Right in Week 13:

• In my Big Ten game of the week, Oregon was a 9.5 favorite at home over USC and I projected the Ducks to cover and win by 14 at 38-24.  USC ended up winning by 15 with a final score of 42-27.
  • I did not like this matchup at all for USC because of how great Oregon is in the trenches, while USC still is not good enough up front to consistently win against the best teams in the Big Ten.
  • USC hung in there offensively vs Oregon gaining 382 yards to Oregon’s 436 yards and had 23 first downs to the Ducks 25.
  • But they could not run the ball going for 52 total yards at 1.9 yards/carry supporting how strong Oregon is up front relative to USC. King Miller has been effective all year but had only 30 yards on 15 carries.
  • QB Jayden Maiava’s 306 passing yards and 3 TDs with 2 INTs allowed USC to hang in there and keep it close but Oregon’s offense was too balanced gaining 257 yards passing behind another strong game from QB Dante Moore and rushing for 179 yards at 4.4 ypc behind Noah Whittington’s 104 yards.
  • At 14 all in the second quarter, the 85-yard Punt Return TD for Oregon’s Malik Benson was a killer and USC also was pretty undisciplined in this game with 11 penalties for 130 yards, though the Ducks also had 8 for 103 yards.
  • The loss knocks the Trojans from playoff contention and while the Trojans are much improved over last year, we need to remember this is year 4 under Lincoln Riley who is one of the highest paid coaches in the game and not even making a 12-team playoff field two years in a row is not meeting expectations. 
  • Riley is 34-17 overall at USC and has finished in the Top 25 in only 1 of his 3 completed years at the school.
  • For Oregon, it supports what I and others have been saying, that they are the most under the radar team in college football for a team that clearly has the capability to win a national title.
  • People have been so focused on the lack of Top 25 wins, made to look much worse given Penn State’s struggles but similar to an Ohio State you can only play the schedule you are faced with and Oregon has looked great in their games except for that home loss vs Indiana.

Big Jeff’s Week 13 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week and 2026 Class To-Date Recruiting Rankings

Forde-Yard Dash: Seven Rivalry Games With Only Hate and Low Stakes

Week 14 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 11.25.25.

This week we have a full slate with all 18 teams playing in 9 Big Ten games (see Table below).  Once again, this week I will be analyzing and predicting just 2 games.

My Big Ten game of the week which is of course – THE GAME.  Ohio State at Michigan in the Green row.  And then my “Lock City” pick in the light purple row with Penn State at Rutgers as a 13.5-point favorite.

Some comments on the games outside my 2 predictions:

• On Friday afternoon, Iowa is favored by 5.5 points at Nebraska with both teams at 7-4.  Both teams per FanDuel started the year with a 7.5 over/under win total but it definitely feels like the loser with a 7-5 record will feel like their season was a great disappointment.
• Iowa had much more closer losses than Nebraska but both would feel equally bad finishing 7-5.
• On Friday night, with a win over Purdue as a 28.5 point favorite, Indiana can ensure their first ever 12-0 season and first ever Big Ten championship game berth in addition to certainly securing a berth in the 12-team playoff field.
• Indiana would crush their over/under win total of 8.5 with a win and Purdue even with a win can’t beat their 3.5 over/under wins and they haven’t won a Big Ten game in the last 2 years.
• Oregon is a 6.5 point favorite at Washington and a win makes them 11-1 and will for sure secure a spot in the playoff field. 
• A win for Washington secures a 9-3 season for Jedd Fisch and that will be looked at as a really great season and well over their 7.5 win over/under, and will likely prevent their main rival from making the playoffs.
• In the lowest over/under points of 37.5 game in the Big Ten (barely less than Iowa), Minnesota is a 1.5 favorite at home over suddenly surging Wisconsin who has two ranked wins in the last 3 weeks.  Minnesota is 6-0 at home and 0-5 on the road.
• Minnesota (17^th) and Wisconsin (18^th) are the two worst offenses in the Big Ten in total yards.
• USC is a huge 20.5 point favorite at home over UCLA with the Trojans hoping to get to 9-3 which exceeds their FanDuel over/under wins of 7.5 while UCLA is in another lost season and hopes to get just their 4^th win.   
• UCLA lost their first 4, shocked many winning 3 in a row and now are back to another 4 game losing streak where they mostly have been non-competitive.
• Michigan State hosts Maryland as a 3.5-point favorite and both have a combined Big Ten conference record of 1-15.   Maryland is 4-7 and can beat their 4.5 preseason over/under with a win, while Michigan State has been more disappointing with a 3-8 record and a 5.5 over/under.
• Finally, Illinois is a 6.5 point home favorite over Northwestern at 7-4 but a loss here would make this a very disappointing season for Illinois whose over/under wins was 8.5 and the Illini envisioned themselves as a playoff threat.
• Northwestern at 6-5 has secured a bowl and with an over/under of 3.5 wins, a victory makes them the most over-achieving Big Ten team this season.

Big Ten Game of the Week: #1 Ohio State -10.5 vs. #15 MICHIGAN (44.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

How do you write a concise background for THE GAME?   You really can’t.  Most important for Michigan is a win over the #1 team in the country gives them a 10-2 record and it’ shard to see a scenario where the Wolverines are left out of the playoffs. Ohio State is looking to win the Big Ten and go undefeated to secure the #1 seed and a first round bye in the playoffs.

Ohio State comes in 11-0 overall and 8-0 in the Big Ten and a win would assure they are in the Big Ten Championship game which they have not been in since the Covid 2019 season. 

Michigan enters the game 9-2 overall and 7-1 in the Big Ten and is on a 5 game winning streak since their last loss at USC 31-13. Michigan can still make the Big Ten Championship game if they beat the Buckeyes and Washington beats Oregon or even if Purdue has a big upset win over Indiana.

Of course, Michigan has won the last 4 meetings, each with it’s own main storyline.  Because Michigan bowed out of the game in the Covid 2020 season, Ohio State has not beat Michigan since 2019.  Ryan Day is 1-4 overall vs Michigan.

This fact has Michigan fans gleeful, and they will want to talk about it beyond anything else.  I really feel it’s to heal the pain of losing to Ohio State in 15 of 16 years (from 2004 to 2019) before their winning streak.  Michigan fans are literally scarred from that time period that covered first the Jim Tressel years and then the Urban Meyer era where he never lost one game to Michigan.

Unfortunately, injuries are a major part of the storyline and in college football that means lots of speculation because unlike the NFL teams don’t need to provide injury reports leaving many in the dark.  Star running back Justice Haynes is expected to miss the game and might be out for the year and fellow running back Jordan Marshall is expected not to play as well.  Then full back and captain Max Bredeson got hurt during the Maryland game with a lower leg injury and will likely be out as is safety Rod Moore.

For Ohio State of course, wide receiver Carnell Tate has been out several weeks and is questionable once again and Jeremiah Smith came out of the Purdue game and did not play last week vs Rutgers and is also questionable. 

All these injuries are a really big deal as the Michigan offense is based on their run attack and Ohio State their passing game and these injured skill players are true stars and difference makers.

ESPN SP+ has Ohio State #1 in the nation with the 6^th ranked offense and top ranked defense, while Michigan is 22^nd with the 45^th rated offense and 10^th ranked defense. In SP+ rating points, Ohio State is 17.2 ahead of Michigan.  Pro Football Focus has Ohio State with the 44^th toughest schedule in the nation to date, with Michigan owning the 33^rd toughest. 

For the year Ohio State is an amazing 9-1-1 against the spread with the only non-cover vs Purdue in Week 11, while Michigan is 4-7 vs the spread and covered vs Maryland after not covering for 3 straight Big Ten games.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Weather could be a major factor in this game as it’s expected to be a high of 30 degrees with a chance of snow of 70% in the afternoon with a 10 to 15 mph wind.

Why Ohio State Can Cover:

1-Ohio State’s defense is elite and the best in the nation statistically (by a LOT), is loaded with future NFL talent and coached by a first year DC who has not called a bad game this year which will make it very difficult for Michigan to score many points.

Any conversation on Ohio State actually should start with the defense.  Last year Ohio State had the number one defense in the nation and had 8 players move on to the NFL and yet incredibly they are even better this year.  The statistics are crazy elite:

• Scoring Defense: #1 in the nation giving up just 7.6 points/game (84 points total on the year) – with the closest team #2 in the nation San Diego State giving up 11.6/game
• Total Defense: #1 in the nation yielding 207 yards/game, with the Toledo Rockets #2 at 241 yards/game
• Passing Defense: #1 in the nation yielding 127 yards/game, followed by Nebraska and Oregon at #2 and #3
• Rushing Defense: #2 in the nation yielding 80 yards/game, 2^nd only to #1 rated Texas Tech (72 ypg); OSU gives up 2.67 yard/rush, which is 4^th in the nation and only have given up 4 rushing TDs tied for 2^nd in the nation.

Add to this is how OSU has a couple true unicorn players including Safety Caleb Downs who is the anchor of the defense and has off the charts football intelligence and is rated as the #2 best draft eligible player by Prof Football Focus.

But it doesn’t end there as Linebacker Arvell Reese is ranked the 4^th best player by PFF, and fellow linebacker Sonny Sytles is #19.  That’s 3 defenders with first round ranks and the rest of the defense is loaded as well including one of the best interior defensive lineman per PFF in #47 ranked Kayden McDonald who will be a key in stopping the Wolverine running game.

2-Ohio State’s offense is clearly better than Michigan’s, led by a quarterback who is much more accurate and is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the nation with one of the best skill player groups in the country giving Ohio State a decided edge in their ability to score points.

Ohio State is 3^rd in the Big Ten in scoring at 37.9 points/game, while Michigan is 9^th and averages 29.3 ppg.   Ohio State rates a solid 7^th in the Big Ten in rushing at 170 yards/game (4.95 ypc) but it’s the passing game where they thrive ranking 2^nd in the Big Ten at 270 yards/game.

QB Julian Sayin has been the key exhibiting uncanny accuracy and pocket presence completing 79.4% of his passes with 27 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions along with possessing the best ESPN quarterback passer rating of 185.4, just ahead of Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.  Maybe as impressive is Sayin has only been sacked 6 times this year

Plus, Sayin has big time weapons to throw to of course in Jeremiah Smith who many consider the best player in college football, Carnell Tate who is a projected first round pick in the 2026 draft and Tight End Max Klare who could go as high as round 2 in the draft.

In contrast, Bryce Underwood has been very solid given he is a true freshman, but his stats are mid-level at best completing 62% of his passes for 9 TDs and 5 interceptions.  Underwood does bring a really strong running ability though with 322 yards on the year so that is wildcard threat for Michigan in this game.

3-Ryan Day’s mindset will be better, and he likely has learned the lesson that winning this game is more than trying to outrush and out tough your opponent but moving the ball down the field that plays to your strengths that this season is clearly the passing game.

There is little doubt, Michigan is in Ryan Day and Ohio State’s head, especially based on last year’s inexplicable Ohio State loss in Columbushi as a huge favorite. At this point that loss is famous as one of the worst ever in the series but also had a huge silver lining as it galvanized the team and changed the mindset springboarding the team to 4 straight mostly dominant, double-digit wins to take the first 12-team National Championship.  Each of the 4 losses has it’s own story and each is unique.

• 2021 in Ann Arbor as Michigan breaks an 8-game losing streak to the Buckeyes winning 42-27 with the big culprit being Ohio State having one of their worst defenses in decades and unable to stop Michigan’s run game.  Michigan was just the better well-rounded team.
• 2022 in Columbus where #3 Michigan triumphed 45-23 against the C.J. Stroud led #2 Buckeyes, who were in control early until OSU DC Jim Knowles decided to call hyper aggressive blitzes that led to long back breaking Michigan touchdown runs and totally changed the tone of the game. Ohio State was better than Michigan and it was all on the coaches.
• 2023 in Ann Arbor was a classic with 2 very closely matched teams but #3 Michigan triumphed 30-24 over #2 Ohio State and the big difference was Michigan had experienced QB J.J. McCarthy while Ohio State had first year starter Kyle McCord who played well that season but nothing close to McCarthy in that season or in this game.
• 2024 in Columbus the story was the poor and ill-fated game plan by Ryan Day and Chip Kelly to try to out tough and outrun the Wolverines when that was the one key advantage, they had with an elite defensive line led by Top 5 draft choice Mason Graham as unranked Michigan won 13-10 over the #2 Buckeyes.

With a national championship in hand, Ryan Day is free to just play to Ohio State’s strengths and try to win the game on their terms and not Michigans.

Why Take the Points with Michigan:

Ohio State’s right offensive line is a weak link.  Left side is great to elite.

1-Michigan’s Defense is really good and does not have a single starter who is a weak link, so they are more than capable of holding the OSU offense in check and keeping this a close game.

Across the board PFF has all Michigan defensive starters rated above average (in the “Green”) in their play this year.  The defensive line is especially strong led by left defensive end senior Derrick Moore who ranks as 19^th amongst all 909 defensive ends in college football and thrives in pass rushing. 

He will be going up against the right side of the Ohio State offensive line who is really the one and only weak area of the entire Ohio State team.  Right guard Tegra Tshabola has really struggled this year and ranks 499^th of 676 offensive guards per PFF which for a national title contender is really bad.  Right tackle Phillip Daniels rates much better but he has had games this year where he has struggled and this could provide a big opportunity for Michigan ruin the rhythm of the Buckeyes offense.

Overall, Michigan’s defense ranks 5^th in the Big Ten in total defense (303 ypg), including ranking 3^rd in Big Ten rushing defense yielding just 94 ypg.  The weaker link is the pass defense ranking just 11^th in the Big Ten at 209 yards/game.  This magnifies how important the status of Ohio State’s star receivers playing in this game is.

2-Michigan has the psychological edge over Ohio State based on recent history and will be supported by a raucous crowd so there is a good chance Ohio State plays tight and maybe makes more mistakes than typical.

I feel two of the four winning streak wins was simply from Michigan being a little better than Ohio State.  But two of them were from Ohio State blowing the game from a coaching standpoint (2022 and 2024) and the players contributed by playing poorly in those games and the same dynamic is very much in play in this game.

In sports, the mental aspect of the game can’t be underestimated and that can be magnified by rivalries at that is exactly the current status of this rivalry.

3-The cold weather and potential for snow favors the Wolverines run oriented attack over Ohio State’s pass oriented offense.

Michigan couldn’t have hoped for better weather.  In addition to the snow, it could be pretty windy. Some have said and I really agree with how Michigan is built to best beat Ohio State where the elements in November play a role, while Ohio State is better built to win national championships where the venues are typically in warmer environments where more wide-open offenses can have an advantage.

Plus, Michigan has an offensive line who has been playing better and better as the season has progressed and all 5 line starters are ranked well above average by PFF.  The only question here for Michigan is can they run as well if both Justice Haynes and Jordan Marshall can’t play.

Big Jeff’s Call: Given the history of this game, OSU giving 10.5 points to Michigan is a lot, but it probably also factors in how Ohio State is 9-1-1 against the spread this season as well.  Given the weather conditions, home environment and mental aspect of this game I see Michigan keeping this close for sure but ultimately, I think the elite Buckeyes defense is the difference maker. I like the Buckeyes to win but the Wolverines to cover and score more than most people think due to running Bryce Underwood more than at any time this season.

 Ohio State 24 Michigan 17.  Confidence: Medium

Big Jeff’s “Lock City” Pick of the Week: Penn State -13.5 RUTGERS (56.5 FanDuel O/U)

Background:

This is a battle of two 5-win teams that both need to win to be eligible to play a bowl game.

Penn State comes in 5-6 overall and 2-6 in the Big Ten while riding a 2-game winning streak under interim coach Terry Smith, after losing 6 in a row.  The Nittany Lions are easily playing their best football of the year, including last week easily beating Nebraska at home 37-10, and that includes better than their opening 3 non-conference games.

Rutgers is also 5-6 overall and 2-6 in the Big Ten and coming off a 42-9 loss at Ohio State but before that game they had won 2 of 3 including against Purdue and Maryland.

Pro Football Focus rates Penn State’s strength of schedule to date 30^th in the nation (9^th toughest in the Big Ten), while Rutgers has had the 11^th toughest schedule in the nation and 4^th toughest in Big Ten. 

But Penn State’s best teams on the schedule seem better than Rutgers as PSU has 3 of their 6 losses against #1 Ohio State, #2 Indiana by 3 and #6 Oregon by 6 in Overtime.  Rutgers has lost also to Ohio State and Oregon but did not have to play Indiana.

In addition to the close loss’s vs Oregon and Indiana, Penn State has lost at UCLA by 5, Northwestern by 1, and at Iowa by 1.  The only loss that wasn’t close was to Ohio State by 24.  So the other 5 losses were by a combined 16 points, or about 3 points/game.

This is why ESPN’s SP+ has Penn State ranked 17^th in the nation despite being under .500, which is 5^th best in the Big Ten.  SP+ has Rutgers 72^nd in the nation and with the 94^th ranked defense.

Year-to-date Penn State is only 4-7 against the spread but has covered their last 3 in a row, while Rutgers is 5-6 against the spread and only covered 2 of their past 6 games.

Why Penn State Can Cover:

1-Under interim coach Terry Smith Penn State is on a roll and playing like a different team – much closer to what we expected when the year started, and they were ranked second in the nation.

After almost upsetting #2 ranked Indiana at home if not for the miracle pass to Omar Cooper Junior, Penn State is playing inspired football under interim coach Terry Smith as the team is playing hard, confident and more loose rallying around their coach and promoting that he should become the full time head coach.  

In the last two games the Nits have thumped Michigan State 28-10 and Nebraska 37-10 last week with their best game of the year.  They need one more win to get to 6 wins and bowl eligibility and I think this team is motivated to go out on a high note given the disappointment with how this season has played out.

2-Under Smith Penn State has leaned more into their run game and best running back Kaytron Allen and they should have a great day running against Rutgers Big Ten worst rushing defense and overall Big Ten’s defense.

One of the biggest criticisms of those who cover Penn State football early in the year under James Franklin is why Penn State wasn’t giving the ball more to Kaytron Allen who was clearly having the better year than Nick Singleton and the Penn State passing game was struggling under Drew Allar.

Upon taking over Smith said he was going to run the ball more and has followed through on that with great results.  In the last 5 games Allen has carried an average 24 times a game doubling his 12 carry average the first 6 games and in the last two wins he’s had 181 and 160 yards rushing while still averaging 5.7/carry on the year.  I think this has allowed Penn State to control the clock more, keep the defense off the field and fresher and really given the offense an identity it did not have early in the season.

Despite the recent improvement, Penn State’s offense is still only 12^th in the Big Ten in Total Offense but 9^th in Big Ten rushing offense at 166 ypg (63^rd in nation) and at 4.6 ypc.  But Rutgers is giving up a Big Ten worst 202 yards/game, which is 127^th in the nation and they are coming off a game where they gave up 254 yards at 6.7 ypc to an Ohio State offense who had not been running the ball all that well.

And in general, Rutgers defense is the worst in the Big Ten in total defense (426 ypg), worst in run defense giving up 202 yards/game and 2^nd to last in scoring defense at 31.1 points/game. Penn State should not struggle to score in this game.

3-Penn States defense is still extremely talented, is playing much better and has defensive linemen who can put pressure on the quarterback and a pass defense equipped to keep the strong Rutgers passing game in check.

We will get into Rutgers strong passing stats when we get to reasons to like them but Penn State’s defensive strength if their pass defense which ranks 6^th in the Big Ten yielding 170 ypg and they have an experienced and talented secondary ranked highly by PFF across all positions led by senior Strong Safety Zakee Wheatley, along with very talented pass rushers like right end Dani Dennis-Sutton who ranks 5^th in defense among all Big Ten defensive ends per PFF and 13^th in pass rushing.

Why Take the Points with Rutgers:

1-When Rutgers passing game is clicking with an experienced quarterback and one of the Big Ten’s best receiver corps it can really move the ball well creating scoring opportunities.

Rutgers has the 4^th best passing game in the Big Ten (35^th in nation) at 260 yards/game, led by experienced senior starter Ethan Kaliakmanis who is having his best season completing 62% of his passes for 17 TDs and 7 interceptions with the 3^rd most passing yards in the Big Ten. 

The one big downside though of the Rutgers passing game is Kaliakmanis has been sacked 33 times which is the most of any Big Ten starting QB (note: Illinois Luke Altmyer is 2^nd sacked 30 times). So the Rutgers offensive line needs to play one of their best games against Penn State’s talented defensive line.

He is throwing to 3 top level receivers all ranking among the Top 20 Big Ten receivers led by #2 in Big Ten receiving KJ Duff (957 yards, 6 TDs), #8 in receiving Ian Strong (725 yards, 5 TDs) and #16 DT Sheffield (550 yards, 4 TDs). 

2-Rutgers run game has been better than the macro statistics would say and run defense is not a Penn State strength, so Rutgers has a chance to have some success on the ground.

Penn State is only 11^th in Big Ten run defense yielding 147 yards/game so they can give up yards.  Rutgers is 12^th in Big Ten run offense (89^th in nation) at 136 yards/game at 3.53 ypc. 

However, that stat is deceiving because of the 33 sacks Rutgers has given up and how college football counts sacks for rushing stats.  Athan Kaliakmanis officially has 86 carries for minus 25 yards rushing on the season.  If you extract those numbers out, Rutgers average jumps to a much better 4.5 yards/carry.

Rutgers star running back Antwan Raymond has been quite productive rushing for 1,052 yards, ranking him 3^rd in Big Ten rushing, at 4.9 ypc and 12 touchdowns. 

Plus, Rutgers offensive line individually ranks above average across all 5 positions so there is no glaring weakness, and I the numbers point to Penn State’s defensive line is better at pass rushing than run defense.

Big Jeff’s Call: I feel the intangibles favor Penn State in this game.  They are playing for Terry Smith and playing to change the tenor of the season which will impact their legacy since this team has won a ton of games in their time in Happy Valley.  Penn State also matches up quite well with Rutgers who rely more on the passing game which is the Nittany Lions defensive strength. 

Penn State is playing with energy and confidence, and I think it continues in this game and they get a pretty easy victory and cover the 13.5 points behind another strong game from RB Kaytron Allen.

Penn State 37 Rutgers 20.  Confidence: High