Periodically Big Jeff will give my “Hot Takes” on various Big Ten football topics. This one is my end of the regular season edition.
But before we do that, I want to go back to my Hot Takes on November 6th after Week 10 (link below). One of them was “Ohio State QB Will Howard will have a major gaff costing OSU a national title – even though he has been a clear upgrade over Kyle McCord”.
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Hot Takes (Nov. 6) – Big Jeff’s Football
We may have seen that in the Michigan game where Howard had two just awful interceptions that in essence cost them the game. Ohio State is still in the Championship hunt but now must win 4 games vs. the potentially 3 if they had won the Big Ten title. I still think Howard’s mobility makes him better than Kyle McCord but in 3 of their 4 biggest games (Oregon, Penn St, Indiana and Michigan) he has had critical mistakes.
Three Big Ten Football Hot Takes (Dec 13)
1. How the 4 Big Ten teams do in the first 12-team playoffs will dictate perceptions of the Big Ten and have ramifications for years to come.
Strength of schedule. Strength of record. The most deserving team. “Your team hasn’t beat anybody!” “What would the spread be if Alabama played SMU?”
College football fans have probably heard all these things dozens of times the past few weeks and months and are likely sick of it like I am. How do you evaluate teams against each other when they have few common opponents and unbalanced schedules? And how do you evaluate and compare conferences with each other when they seldom play each other? All these things are virtually impossible to do in a scientific like way, leaving everyone feeling frustrated.
BUT. The beauty of this new 12-team playoff is we should get many more cross conference matchups in games that matter to allow us to better evaluate conferences and their teams. And unlike bowl game matchups across conferences, we won’t be inhibited by key players not playing because they either declared for the NFL draft or entered the transfer portal.
For the Big Ten, this year’s playoffs are a huge opportunity to establish how strong they are as a conference and especially against the SEC. How Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana perform in these games will dictate the national perception of the Big Ten conference not only this year, but for next year and the years that follow.
Big wins, losses or blowouts in these games will be cited for reasons why a Big Ten team should or should not get in for next year’s playoff’s field and for the proper seeding. And conference performance with each new year will only further define that reputation. That is the exact reason why the reputation of the SEC is what it is.
There is a pecking order to this as well. THE most important playoff game we know will happen involves THE Ohio State University. Number 8 Ohio State’s clash with #9 Tennessee in Columbus, Ohio is the only sure actual Big 10 vs. SEC matchup we will have, and it pits the #4 Big Ten vs the tied for #2 SEC team against each other making it a fair barometer of conference comparisons.
If Tennessee is able to win, they will get #1 Oregon in a quarterfinal Rose Bowl game that becomes the third most important potential game. If Oregon were to lose that as well, it would be disastrous for the Big Ten’s reputation that could only be overcome if Indiana beats Notre Dame in round 1, then goes on to beat the SEC’s Georgia Bulldogs in a quarterfinal Sugar Bowl game.
Indiana beating Georgia though would be the most important potential outcome from all this, since Georgia has the best reputation from all 12 participants due to their two recent back-to-back titles and because Indiana has been the biggest lightning rod in this year’s discussion on “who have you played?”, and if the rankings are more based on brand reputation vs. on field performance.
Indiana beating Georgia would literally send shock waves through the college football universe since the Hoosiers are still talked about like it’s just a nice Cinderella story but it’s not real nor sustainable. It would be like the Big Ten giving the SEC and the South a big middle finger and would do the most to break down the perception the Big Ten is significantly weaker than the SEC.
Penn State has in theory the easiest road and gets #11 SMU in Round 1 at home, then would play Boise State in a quarterfinal Fiesta Bowl matchup. Frankly though, there is only downside here for the Big Ten’s reputation. If Penn State loses to either SMU or Boise State it will be cited as an example of how the Big Ten is overrated and not that good.
If PSU wins those games, it’s what was expected, and the Big Ten would only win reputation points if the Nittany Lions dominates those games. If Penn State makes it to the semifinals though and faces Georgia, that will be a huge reputation opportunity and give James Franklin a chance to get a rare win vs. a Top 5 team.
Oregon or Ohio State could meet #5 Texas (from the SEC) in a semifinal Cotton Bowl game which would have big ramifications, and I put as the 6th potential most important game. Then 4th most important could be an Oregon or Ohio State vs Georgia matchup in the National Championship game in Atlanta.
Here is the breakdown in order of potential and actual games most important for Big Ten perceptions:
- Potential: #10 Indiana vs #2 Georgia in quarterfinal Sugar Bowl
- Actual: #9 Tennessee at #8 Ohio State in First Round game in Columbus, Ohio
- Potential: #9 Tennessee vs. # 1 Oregon in quarterfinal Rose Bowl
- Potential: #1 Oregon or #8 Ohio State vs. #2 Georgia in National Championship Game
- Potential: #6 Penn State vs. #2 Georgia in semifinal Orange Bowl
- Potential: #1 Oregon or #8 Ohio State vs. #5 Texas in semifinal Cotton Bowl
Ultimately, head-to-head performance vs. the SEC is the key here. And winning the National Championship would make it two in a row for the Big Ten, which is huge, but not as important as a good overall performance by all four teams showing the Big Ten has better depth than many college football fans think.
2. Beyond the 4 playoff teams, I still don’t know how good the rest of the Big Ten is and due to the transfer portal, we will never know.
It has been a hot topic all season. How deep and how good is the Big Ten vs. a conference like the SEC? This was discussed extensively when evaluating both Indiana and Penn State’s worthiness to be in the college football playoffs. The best way to compare conferences used to be end of season bowl games which always pitted teams from different conferences. This year the Big Ten has eight non-playoff bowl games (see list below) with some very compelling matchups like Texas A&M vs. USC, Iowa vs. Missouri, South Carolina vs. Illinois and Alabama vs. Michigan.
College football transfer portal 2024: Updates, news – ESPN
The problem is most of these games will involve teams who will play at far less than full strength making a true comparison impossible. Michigan for example, already has had All-American Defensive End and expected Top 10 draft pick Mason Graham declare for the NFL draft. He is a huge difference maker and the Wolverines are a different team without him. We will also have players entering the transfer portal and not playing impacting teams’ depth and overall strength.
Many will ignore these factors and still try to use the bowl games to judge conference strength but unfortunately the reality is we will never know leaving the playoff performances as the best indicator of conference strength. Hopefully in the future though, we will get more Power 4 cross-conference regular season matchups.
Big Ten Non-Playoff Bowl Games (8)
2024-25 CFP, bowl picks – Predicting college football scores – ESPN
- Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs. Kansas State
- SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. USC
- Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Nebraska
- TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Missouri
- ReliaQuest Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan
- Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Louisville vs. Washington
- Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: South Carolina vs. Illinois
- Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech
- Big Ten Teams not playing in bowl games: (6) UCLA, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Maryland, Purdue.
3. Michigan and Ohio State fans valuing wins in “The Game” over National Championships is idiotic.
I have both heard and read from some fans from both sides that they would rather beat their rival than win a National Championship. The Sunday after Michigan beat Ohio State a guy got on College Sports Sunday with Barrett Sallee and Tom Luginbill and said he felt the Michigan upset over Ohio State was an even bigger win than Michigan’s National Championship the prior year.
I get the hatred and the importance of this game. I have been an Ohio State football fan since I was a little boy and was even at this latest game to witness the upset, the flag planting, the fight, everything. To either fanbase losing means you feel a little less happy and for some a lot less happy than you would feel for 365 days. That’s a long time. And those losses hurt on a very personal level.
But the pain and the associated bragging rights if you win only mostly matter to Michigan and Ohio State fans. Other fan bases only care about “The Game” because it is typically a compelling matchup between two talented teams that has great passion, which is what makes college football unique and BETTER than the NFL. And for its potential impact on who wins the ultimate prize, which is the National Championship.
I live in Atlanta which is both in the heart of SEC country and the center of the college football universe. Success is first counted in National Championships, not rivalry wins. Until Kirby Smart finally broke through and won the National Championship for Georgia in the 2021 season (the Dawgs first since the 1980 season), Georgia fans couldn’t have true bragging rights and the ability to say their team was a great program. National Titles give you those rights, not a bunch of wins over the Florida Gators.
When Ohio State won the National Title in 2014 and beat Alabama on their way to doing it, the entire country knew who the best program was that year and who took the ultimate prize. That gave me plenty of bragging rights with my Georgia friends. If Ohio State would have lost to Bama, they would have all let me know about it. But then I could have said, oh yeah well at least we beat Michigan this year, and they would have proceeded to laugh in my face. “Who gives a $#@%”. And the same holds for across the rest of the country as well. “The Game” has great meaning for sure, but outside of Michigan and Ohio that meaning is much different.
Big Jeff’s Week 14 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Big Jeff’s Football
