Periodically Big Jeff will give my “Hot Takes” on various Big Ten football topics. With both James Franklin and Lincoln Riley both under fire, now is the perfect time.
James Franklin is Paul Finebaum’s New “Jim Harbaugh” – Mike Farrell Sports
Lincoln Riley: Former USC Star Says Trojans’ Coach Is ‘Stealing From Program’ – Mike Farrell Sports
Week 10 Big Ten Football Top Storylines – Big Jeff’s Football
Three Big Ten Football Hot Takes
1. Penn State should not move on from James Franklin, despite another big game loss to Ohio State.
Coming out of the big Ohio State at Penn State matchup, one of the head coaches was going to have the pressure on them ratcheted up to sky high levels. The Buckeyes won so it’s James Franklin who earns the short straw and has many both fans and experts saying he will never get it done and needs to be replaced. Some are willing to wait to see how Penn State does if they can make the playoffs, but even they don’t have a strong belief Franklin will get it done.
Franklin is in his 11th season at Penn State and is 95-40 overall for a .704 winning percentage and he’s 4-5 in bowl games. The wins put him 3rd on the all-time Penn State list and the winning percentage is 4th all-time at PSU but 2nd all-time behind Joe Paterno’s .749 percentage if you exclude PSU coaches under 30 total games. In Big Ten games he is 63-33 but is 1-10 against Ohio State, 3-7 against Michigan and 1-14 against Top 5 teams (with 8 of those loses to Ohio State).
He’s had six seasons where PSU finished 12th or better in the final college football rankings. In 2021, Penn State gave Franklin a new contract and he is making an estimated $8.5 million/year (base salary of $7.5 million and has various incentives) through the 2031 season, which puts him 3rd in the Big Ten behind Lincoln Riley and Ryan Day, and 13th nationally. To get rid of him in 2024, would cost PSU an estimated $56 million.
For this season Franklin hired two new coordinators. Former Kansas Offensive Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki on offense and former Indiana Head Coach Tom Allen to be Defensive Coordinator. Up until the Ohio State game, the consensus was both hires had done very well and especially Kotelnicki who has been lauded for his creative play calling. Against the Buckeyes though, the feeling is maybe the moment was too big for Kotelnicki, especially his play calling when PSU had two first down and goals from inside the five against the Buckeyes but didn’t come away with any points.
I get the frustration with Franklin, but since the start of his tenure Ohio State is almost always amongst the most talented 3 or 4 teams in college football. As painful as the losses have been to the Buckeyes, it’s not like they are getting blown out – they are losing by small margins. Michigan the last three years have had teams that were probably their best going back well over 25 years.
The big question every program has to ask is if you get rid of a successful coach (and Franklin is successful), who are you going to get that you KNOW is better. That is what Penn State finds themselves looking at.
Franklin has shown himself to be a very good recruiter, ambassador for the program, and capable of having his teams right at the doorstep of big things. The Nittany Lions are always good on defense, and it looks like they will continue to be under Tom Allen. It’s the offense that more often has come up short but in Kotelnicki they have the type of coach who is innovative enough to get the most out of their talent. He just needs to gain more experience in these big games similar to what Ohio State Defensive Coordinator Jim Knowles has needed to learn.
Getting rid of Franklin would mean you assume he is not capable of adjusting and that Kotelnicki won’t improve in his role in leading the offense. When you are right on the doorstep like PSU is, I feel it’s usually a major mistake going a different direction. Often you can take a big step backwards that can set big time programs back for years.
There are many examples but most recent include Miami, USC, Florida, Nebraska, Tennessee and Auburn. All these teams have experienced 10 plus years of very mediocre results after having great success including national titles. You can even add in Texas, though the past two years they have been consistently in the Top 10.
Michigan is on this list as well before the hiring of Jim Harbaugh. Though even he went 0-5 in his first five years vs. Ohio State at Michigan with no Big Ten Titles and no bowl wins before finally breaking through in 2021 with a win over the Buckeyes and eventually winning a National Title in 2023.
Similar to Franklin, Michigan was close to considering a different route in 2020 but stuck with Harbaugh and got rewarded. I am not saying Franklin will for sure get it done all the way up to winning a National Championship, but the risk of going with a new coach when Franklin is not that far away does not outweigh the potential big downsides of trying someone new. Especially in this new 12-team playoff era.
2. Ohio State QB Will Howard will have a major gaffe costing OSU a national title – even though he has been a clear upgrade over Kyle McCord.
In 2023, Ohio State was 11-0 before losing at Michigan 30-24 preventing them from making the 4-team playoff. Kyle McCord was in his first year as the starter at Ohio State and had what most would agree was a good year, but not a great one. McCord completed 66% of his passes for 3,170 yards and 24 touchdowns with 6 interceptions but did have what some felt was the best wide receiving group in the nation to throw to.
The results have been mostly good. Howard’s passing ability has actually exceeded many fans and pundit’s expectations. His statistics have not surprisingly improved helped by throwing to another wide receiver group that may be the best in the nation, and certainly is best in the Big Ten, helped by freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith. Here are his past two years stats:
- 2023 at Kansas State: 61.3% completions, 220 passing yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt, 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 351 rushing yards, 140.1 QB rating.
- 2024 at Ohio State (thru 8 games): 73.2% completions, 247 passing yards/game, 9.6 yards/attempt, 19 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 115 rushing yards, 179.9 QB rating.
Through eight games, as hoped Howard’s talent and running ability makes Ohio State’s offense much more dynamic, harder to defend and with a higher ceiling than under McCord. An example of this is Red Zone offense statistics. This year Ohio State ranks 5th in the nation and 1st in the Big Ten with a 96.4% red zone scoring rate (27 scores our of 28 red zone attempts), including 25 touchdowns for a nation’s best 89% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone. In 2023, OSU had an 86% red zone scoring rate (8th in Big Ten) and 64% touchdown conversion rate.
The issue has been what seems like 1 or 2 bad decisions/plays per game from Howard that can cost you a game. A short sampling includes:
- At Oregon: Poor clock management and awareness where Howard ran up the field too long before sliding to stop the clock in time for the potential game-winning field goal.
- Against Nebraska, with Ohio State clinging to 14-9 lead early in third quarter, throws ill-advised interception that is returned to OSU 7-yard line increasing chances for a major upset.
- At Penn State, throwing a bad pick six interception on OSU’s first drive to go down 10-0; and up 14-10 with a chance to go up 21-10 with six minutes in the half, fumbles through the end zone after a 12-yard run that would have given OSU first and goal at the 2-yard line.
Since Howard had 10 interceptions at Kansas in 2023, he already had a reputation of making poor decisions during games, and that has only continued at Ohio State. In most games, the Buckeyes have enough talent to overcome such mistakes and can take Howard’s little of the bad with more of his good. But against the best teams like in the playoffs where the margins are razor thin, these types of mistakes will likely cost you a loss as we saw in the Oregon game.
Beyond offensive line play, these Howard mistakes should be the number one concern for all Buckeyes fans.
3. Lincoln Riley is not going to get fired after this season – even if USC does not make a bowl game.
Lincoln Riley was head coach at Oklahoma for five years and went 55-10 that included two playoff appearances and Top 10 final AP Poll appearances in all five years. When Riley was hired by USC it was considered a “home run” hire by almost everyone.
Early returns were good as Riley rode a Heisman Campaign from quarterback Caleb Williams in year one to a 11-3 record and #12 finish. Year two saw a big drop off as USC went 8-5 despite Williams returning for his final year. Now this year, with USC losing late to Washington 26-21 the Trojans are 4-5 overall and 2-5 in the Big Ten after losing all five games after leading in the fourth quarter.
This makes Riley an aggregate 23-13 at USC with more losses within two and a half years at USC as he had in all five years at Oklahoma. He is 6-10 in his last 16 games and at 4-5 this year is in jeopardy of not even making a bowl game.
Lincoln Riley’s salary is an estimated $10.043 million/year (though impacted by potential incentives) which is number one in the Big Ten and number four nationally only behind Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney and Georgia’s Kirby Smart. He’s in the 3rd year of his 10-year deal and the estimated buyout of the contract as of this year (2024) is $88 million.
Even beyond that huge buyout, USC badly wants this to work out and is not going to fire Riley even if they go under .500 this year and don’t make a bowl game. Maybe the buyout also makes this not that much of a hot take. And there are several real positives on why it makes sense to keep Riley beyond the buyout.
First, similar to the Penn State James Franklin situation, if you let Riley go who are you going to get that you KNOW will be better than Riley? Second, though USC is 4-5 they have held 4th quarter leads in all 5 losses and the cumulative points they have lost by is 19 points (or about 4 points per loss). I know USC fans hate to hear Riley say it, but they really are close to being more like 6-3 if they win just two of those. How you lose matters, and Riley has a history of mostly winning that should be factored in.
Another factor is Riley has made a good hire in Defensive Coordinator D’Anton Lynn where we have seen improvement in defensive toughness and performance and that bodes well for the future. I think Riley does know USC must be better on defense and in the trenches and needs more time to accomplish that.
Finally, and maybe most important is recruiting is in a good place and is not falling off despite the Trojans tough year. Right now, according to Rival.com (link below), USC is 9th in the nation and 2nd in the Big Ten for the 2025 recruiting cycle.
2025 USC Trojans Football Commitment List
USC needs to and will let Riley better mold this team to be successful in the Big Ten. Good coaches adapt and evolve and though Riley may not be a great coach based on results he has shown he knows how to build a consistent winner at Oklahoma and there’s little reason to think he won’t do the same for USC.
