Big Jeff’s Championship Week 15 Football Picks

Week 14 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover my Championship Week picks, let’s first do a review of how I did in Week 14.

(Odds by FanDuel on 11.26.25).

General Comments:

• In Week 14, I went 0-2 (argh) after going 1-1 three weeks in a row (see results Table Below).
• For the season I am now 29-29 overall and 6-5 in my Lock City picks.
• Let’s do a quick review of what I got right and wrong in my Week 14 picks and also draw some insights on those games and others.

What I Got Wrong in Week 14: 

• In the Big Ten Game of the Week, which was of course THE GAME, Ohio State was a 10.5 favorite in the Big House in Ann Arbor and won 27-9 but I had predicted Michigan would lose but cover in a 24-17 defeat.
  • Although I was worried about the impact of the weather and predicted snow for this game which should have favored Michigan’s run oriented offense and increased the chances the Wolverines could make this a sloppy game where they could hang close and put a ton of scoreboard pressure on the Buckeyes, it turns out the only thing that did is keep Ohio State from potentially really laying on the points in the second half.
  • This game was all about what is between the ears for Ohio State’s Ryan Day and his coaches and players since if it were just on talent I would have easily taken Ohio State to cover the 10.5 points.
  • I got right that the biggest difference maker in this game would be the elite and nations best Ohio State defense and that was true holding Michigan to only 9 points, 163 yards of Total Offense, 44 yards in the entire second half and only 63 total passing yards from Bryce Underwood as Michigan was also 1-9 on 3^rd down conversions.
  • I had also called out how much better of a quarterback Julian Sayin was than Bryce Underwood and that he was playing like maybe the best quarterback in the nation and other than the terrible second pass interception he threw, Sayin was sensational throwing for 233 yards and 3 touchdowns.
  • Underwood meanwhile was 8 of 18 for 63 yards and an INT and looked frankly overwhelmed by Ohio State’s defense missing some open receivers downfield because he was in a rush to throw to the checkdown receiver.
  • I also thought Ryan Day would not repeat the mistakes from last year and not play Michigan’s type of conservative game and instead lean into the Buckeyes strength which was throwing the ball and that’s exactly what he did despite the less than ideal weather conditions.
  • In fact, their pass game set up the run game which really took hold in their back breaking 20 play drive of 81 yards that took an amazing 11:56 off the clock, practically an entire quarter and after a Field Goal it was 27-9 with 8 minutes left and the game was basically over.
  • The stat of the team rushing for more yards wins something like 25 of the last 26 games is real BUT it is somewhat over blown since often the team that wins has a lead and then naturally is going to run the ball more to preserve that lead.  In either case OSU outrushed Michigan 186 to 100.
  • For Ohio State, it was a huge lift getting a big game from true freshman RB Bo Jackson who ran for 117 yards and had 49 receiving yards as well addressing the only big offensive concern all year of a mediocre running game.  And that was the one area where Michigan was thought to have an advantage.
  • Jackson’s and the running game’s improvement is a great sign for the Buckeyes playoff run.
  • A final thing for now on the Buckeyes is how much scouts are raving about Julian Sayin who is exhibiting a very quick release, a great pocket presence and accuracy and quick decision making.
  • For Michigan, despite the game being dominated by Ohio Stater it actually got off to about as good of a start as they would want.
  • We had the Michigan opening drive long run by RB Jordan Marshall that led to a quick 3-0 lead and then Sayin’s bad interception on OSU’s second play in Michigan territory led to Michigan having a first and ten on the OSU 11 yard line.
  • If Michigan scores a TD there, it’s 10-0 and that would have put some extreme mental pressure on Ohio State.  But they settled for another field goal to go up 6-0 and in retrospect not scoring a TD there allowed Ohio State to settle into the game without panicking.
  • I had written I thought Michigan had a good enough defense to keep the OSU offense fairly in check but that was not true as they never put any real pressure on Sayin and clearly Ohio State won both battles of the trenches.
  • The other big mystery in this game is I thought a big wild card that Michigan would need to leverage is use Bryce Underwood in the running game extensively that may open more passing lanes but Michigan only marginally tried that as Underwood had 6 carries for 1 yard when people like Urban Meyer were saying they would run the QB probably 15 times in this game.
  • So you have to really question what was the offensive game plan for Michigan?
  • From listening to Michigan followers, this game raises a bunch of Red Flags  and questions about the future including:
  • How good of a coach is Sherrone Moore and does he have the right Coordinators in place to make Michigan a perennial playoff team?  Moore is in just his second year and is learning on the job but it’s not clear yet how good of a coach he is.
  • Is this coaching staff capable of developing Bryce Underwood into a good pro QB prospect since this season it felt like he was underdeveloped and did not improve as much as you would think for his talent?
  • Can Michigan improve the wide receiver position and get better weapons to supplement their strong running game?

• In my Lock City pick of the week, I took Penn State as a 13.5-point FanDuel favorite on the road at Rutgers predicting a comfortable 37-20 Nittany Lions win and got it wrong as it was a quite uncomfortable and close 40-36 win for Penn State.
  • Coming into this game Penn State had won two games in a row beating Michigan State by 18 and Nebraska by 27 and were looking more like the great team they were predicted to be this year.
  • Without an experienced quarterback, I didn’t feel like Penn State could be a Top 10 like team but did feel there is no reason they can’t play like a clear Top 20 team and based on that felt they should easily cover 13.5 points over a weak 5-6 Rutgers team that SP+ had ranked 72^nd.
  • I had loved the momentum that PSU interim coach Terry Smith had generated and the players seemed highly motivated to win both for their coach and to improve the perceptions of this season and save a little face by making a bowl game.
  • On the field, Rutgers struggled to run consistently this season but has an excellent passing game with very skilled receivers but Penn State’s defense was better against the pass anyway and have good pass rushers and a very experienced secondary.
  • But the Nits gave up 338 yards to Rutgers and Athan Kaliakmanis at a whopping 15.4 yards/pass and weren’t that much better against the run giving up 195 yards at 4.6 yards/carry.   PSU was actually outgained by Rutgers 533 to 509.
  • I had loved how PSU had shifted their offensive focus to riding Kaytron Allen the past few games against Rutgers Big Ten worst run defense and they did exactly that vs Rutgers rushing for 300 yards at 9.1 yards/carry and Allen had 226 yards on 10.3 yards/carry.
  • If it were not for a late 4^th quarter fumble by Kaliakmanis returned for a Penn State TD, Rutgers probably wins this game, but PSU did win to get the 6 wins needed to go to a minor bowl but this game put to bed any idea that Terry Smith may end up the Penn State coach – though I never felt there was a real possibility for that anyway.
  • All this makes me ask: Did any Big Ten Coordinator do a worst job this year than Jim Knowles?  He is being paid as the top Coordinator in the nation and Penn State’s defense was mostly a liability during the year.
  • PSU’s total defense went from 295 yards/game last year and 7^th in the nation under first year DC Tom Allen (7^th in the nation) to 334 ypg this year for 35^th in the nation, and their rushing defense went from 9^th in the nation last year to 71^st in the nation.
  • Their scoring defense went from 16.5 points/game for 8^th in the nation to 21.4 ppg for 37^th in the nation.
  • I can’t explain it beyond they lost key linebacker Tony Rojas early in the year to injury but beyond that they were really healthy.
  • For Rutgers, it was a brutal way to lose with the late fumble after playing so well to try to get that sixth win. 
  • Their pre-season over/under was only 5.5 so going 5-7 in some ways wasn’t a total disaster and especially given how hard their schedule was that ended up ranked by PFF as the 10^th hardest in the nation and 4^th hardest in the Big Ten. 
  • The shame is it feels like a waste of Kaliakmanis’s final year as he played better than any QB at Rutgers in a long time and QB has been a problem spot for the program.
  • You also can lay blame at the defense which finished dead last in Total Defense in the Big Ten and 3^rd to last in Scoring Defense.
  • Greg Schiano has a lot of work to do to get this team back to where it should be.

What I Got Right in Week 14:

• Not much, except for the winners of each game.

Big Jeff’s Week 14 Big Ten Football Picks – “Rivalry Week” – Big Jeff’s Football

Forde-Yard Dash: Assessing the Wreckage of Lane Kiffin’s Latest Coaching Controversy

Championship Week (15) Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 12.3.25.

This is conference championship week and of course the Big Ten has a colossal #1 vs #2 matchup in Ohio State vs. Indiana in the Hoosiers virtual backyard in Indianapolis.

The table below lists all of the Power 4 Conference Championship games plus I add in the Conference USA championship game as well in Jacksonville State as a 1.5 point favorite over Kennesaw State since my son is a sophomore at KSU here in the Atlanta suburbs, so I thought it is fun to list that one.

I will be analyzing and predicting just 2 games, with the Big Ten Game of the week obviously the Buckeye vs Hoosier matchup and then my Lock City peak of the week is Georiga vs Alabama in the SEC Championship in Atlanta.

Big Ten Game of the Week: #1 Ohio State -4.5 vs. #2 Indiana (48.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

#1 vs #2 as most of I expected when the season started.  The winner will be Big Ten Champion and get the playoff 1 seed and a guaranteed first round bye be being a top 4 team.  The loser will still likely get a bye and stay within the top 4.   Indiana has two Big Ten football titles from 1945 and 1967.  Ohio State has won 40 Big Ten championships, second only to Michigan, but this would be their first since 2020. 

So the stakes are really high AND this game is highly likely to determine who wins the Heisman Trophy.  It would be the first ever for Indiana and 8^th for Ohio State and first since running back Eddie George in 1995.

I have heard some say this game will mean more to Indiana.  In one sense I get that since it’s such a rarity for them to be in this spot.  But all these coaches and players are hyper competitive.  They coach and play to win so I don’t think Indiana is going to play harder because they want to win a Big Ten championship more.  All these Ohio State players also have never won a championship, so they will be going all out for this game. 

From a fans perspective maybe I would agree, this would mean more for Indiana fans and you can tell there is dynamic of IU fans feeling Ohio State fans are entitled and spoiled while Ohio State fans look at Indiana as upstarts and while their results have been impressive, they still don’t view Indiana as true peers.

This is college football bliss for Big Jeff as I have talked about many times I am a 1990 graduate of Indiana and a long-suffering basketball and football fan of the Hoosiers.

I also was born in Cincinnati, Ohio in 1967 before moving to Wisconsin at 4 years old.  I saw Ohio State QB Art Schlichter on a Sports Illustrated cover in 1979 after they beat Michigan and ever since have been a huge Ohio State football fan and never dumped them even after going to IU.  They have been the only team of mine that is consistently good what with the Reds mostly sucking for 15 years, IU football mostly sucking for 20+ years and even supposed blue-blood IU basketball underachieving for what feels like forever.

And I must admit.  I am pretty pissed at how Indiana has completely screwed up on their basketball team the past 25+ years.  Yes, I know Crean had some good success but he never even made a Final 4 so it wasn’t nearly good enough.  To me Indiana basketball should be like Ohio State football has been ever since Jim Tressel took over in 2001.  A threat almost every year to win a title and periodically winning it.  IU has not won a title since my freshman year in 1987 when Keith Smart his the shot to beat Syracuse for Bob Knights last championship.  At the time I though, man what a great decision choosing Indiana.  In my lifetime I will be able to celebrate a bunch of basketball championships.  But this really shows – it DAMN hard to win Championships.  Ohio State football fans know this as well.

So these are my two teams ranked at 1 and 2 here.  Crazy.

What’s the last time Indiana beat Ohio State in football?  I was there in person as a Junior at IU.  It was November 5, 1988 and Indiana behind all-time great running back Anthony Thompson beat Ohio State 41-7 and for the second consecutive year after beating Ohio State 31-10 in Columbus in October 1987 which Ohio State Earle Bruce famously said “this is the darkest day in Ohio State football since I have been associated with it”.   

Contrast that with Indiana coach Bill Mallory’s quotes of “We didn’t come here to lose, and this is a great confidence builder.  Now the people will understand that Indiana plays some great football”.  “And you can Google it!”.  OK – not the last part but I did Google this to get the details.  Two weeks later the Hoosiers also upset Michigan in Bloomington.

That 1987 Indiana win snapped a 31-game losing streak to Ohio State and since the 1988 IU win Ohio State has won 30 straight times. 

At the time Mallory was a poor man’s version of Curt Cignetti having a strong winning record at all 3 prior stops including Miami of Ohio, Colorado and Northern Illinois.  Mallory was the last Indiana football coach with real sustained success leading Indiana to 6 bowls and 2 bowl wins over his 13 seasons in Bloomington.

Also, Mallory has the last Indiana bowl win from a 1991 season victory on New Year’s eve against Baylor.  Yes, it’s been 34 years since Indiana last won a bowl game.  Overall Mallory went 68-78-3 and is still the all-time winningest coach in IU history.  

Here are a few other interesting tidbits on this rivalry:

• Ohio State leads the all-time series 81-12-5 with the first game in 1901 being a Buckeye 18-6 win.
• In the first six meeting Indiana led the series 5-0-1.
• Prior to the 1987 IU win, they hadn’t beaten the Buckeyes since 1951, so that is 2 Indiana wins since 1951 (over 74 years).
• For Ohio State, Indiana is the third-longest running series in program history.
• Last year’s matchup was the first time both met as Top 5 teams so now that will have happened two years in a row.

What Cignetti has done at Indiana has many including me saying this is the greatest all-time coaching job in the history of college football. We all know Indiana was the all-time losingest FBS program when Cignetti took over but his record at IU is now an incredible 23-2 (.920 win rate) and IU has moved past Northwestern who is the new all-time loss leading program.

Here is a question.  Other than Cignetti, what coach has the best winning percentage in Indiana history?  That would be Bo McMillin who went 63-48 for a .561 win rate from 1934 to 1947.  But since then no Indiana coach has even had an overall record over .500.

Both teams come in 12-0 overall and 9-0 in the Big Ten. 

Ohio State has won 16 in a row since that fateful loss as a 20.5-point favorite to Michigan last year in which I was there in person as I took by two sons who are now 17 and 20 to it since they are also big Ohio State fans and the game was actually a High School graduation gift for my oldest boy Jett.

We stayed for the whole thing, including watching the whole Michigan flag planting fiasco at the end of the game.  It was a devastating loss.  So much so that even as Ohio State was making their playoff run last year, I told the boys even though the Championship game is in Atlanta we are not going because I spent so much for the Michigan game trip and I couldn’t stomach spending all that money to see the Buckeyes get upset again.

BUT, thankfully the day before the National Championship game of Notre Dame vs Ohio State, I actually pulled the trigger at 10 pm and bought 3 tickets for us for $7,500.  We all know what happened and it turned out to be the best money I ever spent as we had the time of our lives watching the Buckeyes take the title and that mostly but not totally certainly erased the Michigan upset loss nightmare.  What a roller coaster ride that was.

Funny side note.  Through the years I have encouraged my boys to watch both Ohio State in football and Indiana in football and basketball.  They have become huge fans of Ohio State and have watched many games because the football team just wins so damn much making it super fun to be a fan.  Yes, there are losses that sting bad but that is the life of being a fan of a team that plays games that have really high stakes attached to them.

Every time IU basketball or football was on and I would encourage them to watch with me they would be basically be like “no thanks, I’m good, Indiana never wins any big games anyway”.  So they could really care less about Indiana.

The table below shows how Ohio State and Indiana fare in Key Ranking statistics and it really demonstrated how dominant both these teams are and how they are clearly statistically the Top 2 teams in the nation.  I shaded in dark green any stat where the Team ranks in the Top 5.  If they are in the Top 25 it’s in a light green cell.

ESPN SP+ has Ohio State #1 in the nation with the 5^th ranked offense and top ranked defense, while Indiana is #2 (and just 0.9 rating points behind OSU) with the #3 rated offense and #2 defense.  Note: Oregon is currently 4^th in SP+.

Pro Football Focus has Ohio State with the 32^nd toughest schedule in the nation to date, which is the 11^th toughest Big Ten schedule and Indiana with the 63^rd toughest schedule in the nation which is last in the Big Ten.  But looking at ESPNs strength of schedule has IU at #45 in the nation with OSU right behind at #46.

The ESPN FPI Index has Ohio State 1 and Indiana 2, but in ESPN’s Strength of Record it’s reversed with IU #1 and OSU #2 and ESPN’s efficiency index has IU 1^st and OSU 2^nd.

Statistically these 2 teams are pretty much the same. I have found it amusing to watch both these fan bases act like 12-year old boys in touting stats that just favor their team and ignoring stats that don’t and the same holds for the Mendoza vs Sayin Heisman candidacies in analyzing those 2 players.

For the year Ohio State is an amazing 10-1-1 against the spread with the only non-cover vs Purdue in Week 11, and they have not lost a cover in 16 games including the 4 playoff wins last year.  Indiana is 7-5 against the spread for the year, but have not covering 2 of the past 3 games – though they did cover the final game vs Purdue.

FYI: Last year Ohio State was a 10.5-point favorite for the game in Columbus where Ohio State won 38-15.

For the macro statistics like Total Offense, Total Defense, scoring, etc. Ohio State and Indiana both are extremely impressive across the board with Ohio State holding the edge in most key defensive statistics and Indiana holding the edge in more offensive stats.

Offensive Stats:

• Total Offense: IU #5 (484 ypg); OSU #24 (439 ypg)
• Passing Offense: IU #39 (254 ypg); OSU #24 (267 ypg)
• Rushing Offense: IU #9 (230 ypg; 5.6 ypc); OSU #53 (172 ypg; 4.8 ypc)
• Scoring Offense: IU #2 (44.3 ppg); OSU #13 (37.0 ppg)

Defensive Stats:

• Total Defense: OSU #1 (203 ypg); Indiana #4 (252 ypg)
• Passing Defense: OSU #1 (121 ypg); Indiana #14 (173 ypg)
• Rushing Defense: OSU #4 (82 ypg; 2.8 ypc); Indiana #2 (79 ypg; 2.9 ypc)
• Scoring Defense: OSU #1 (7.8 ppg); Indiana #2 (10.9 ppg)

Other Key Stats:

• Offense 3^rd Down Conversion: OSU #1 (56.9%); IU #2 (56.6%)
• Defense 3^rd Down Conversion: OSU #3 (27.5%; IU #4 (27.7%)
• Turnover Margin: IU #1 (+17, Gain 24, Loss 7); OSU #34 (+5, Gain 13, Loss 8)
• Fewest Penalty Yards: IU #3 (321 yards); OSU #24 (yards)
• Team Pass Efficiency Offense: IU #1; OSU #2
• Team Pass Efficiency Defense: OSU #6; IU #10
• Red Zone Offense: IU #17 (92%, 46 TDs in 61 attempts); OSU #30 (90%, 43 TDs in 62 attempts)
• Red Zone Defense: OSU #1 (65% score rate, 4 rush TD, 3 Pass TD in 20 zone attempts); IU #60 (83% score rate, 3 rush TD, 2 Pass TD in 18 zone attempts)
• Indiana is #1 and OSU #2 in nation in red zone attempts allowed

Coaching Advantage:

This is about a draw in my view.  Both head coaches and staffs are really equally elite with the only real difference I see is that Ohio State has a slight advantage only because of their experience in prepping for and coaching in huge games from their 4-game playoff run last year.

Why Ohio State Can Cover:

1-I don’t think Indiana will be able to run consistently on Ohio State and so Fernando Mendoza will have to play a truly great game passing the ball (which he is certainly capable of) for Indiana to cover or win the game.

This is something on the negative side I identified a couple of weeks ago in analyzing a different Indiana game but when Indiana has been up and against talented and physical defensive front sevens, their Big Ten leading rushing offense has really struggled.

The table below breaks this out.  The top of the table shows the weaker defensive fronts they played which were against 8 teams and in these games they averaged 6.8 yards/carry and averaged 294 yards/game.  Incredibly Indiana rushed for over 300 yards against 6 of these 8 teams including ODU, Kennesay, Indiana state, Illinois, Maryland and Purdue.

I list in the last column where these teams rushing defenses rank so for example Maryland is 102^nd in the nation.

The bottom of the table shows how IU did against what I consider the 4 most talented front sevens and that includes Iowa, Oregon, Penn State and Wisconsin and in those games IU averaged just 2.8 yards/carry and 101 yards rushing /game.

This is a major concern of mine for Indiana because Ohio State’s front seven is no doubt much better than all these teams and is why I don’t see Indiana having a lot of rushing success meaning Mendoza is going to have to have a huge game.  And I am not saying he can’t do it.

2-Ohio State’s defense might be an all-time great college defense that has high level NFL players across all 3 levels of their defense and some who are true unicorns and they simply will make it hard for Indiana to score enough to win.

Any conversation on Ohio State should start with this defense.  They are putting up record breaking numbers with the key stat the 93 total points they have given up in 12 games for a 7.8/game average.  The most points they gave up was 16 to Illinois and their closest margin of victory was 7 to Texas, followed by 18-point wins at Washington, at Illinois and at Michigan.  It’s been pure domination led by this defense.

Let’s talk unicorn players.  This is not to throw shade on Indiana’s defense who has really good players, playing at a high level.  But Ohio State has two defensive unicorn players in safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Arvell Reese who are projected by many to be among the Top 5 players taken in the 2026 NFL draft.  Both players athletic gifts make them players who can make a game changing play at any time. 

And Downs was just named the Big Ten Defensive Back of the year and Defensive Player of the Year for a reason.  He is touted by coaches with off the charts football IQ and is the lynchpin of first year Defensive Coordinators Matt Patricia’s complex NFL defense that constantly changes up looks to opposing QB’s to confuse them in recognizing what type of defense is being played. 

Plus, the defensive talent goes much further as defensive tackle Kayden McDonald is considered by many the best tackle in the nation, just won the Big Ten defensive lineman of the year award and is projected as mid-first round NFL pick.  Linebacker Sonny Styles is projected as a first rounder and defensive end Caden Curry a Day 1 NFL pick as well.  In the backfield is first time All-Big Ten cornerback Davison Igbinosun and the rest of the starters are all highly rated.

It’s hard to find a weakness to attack on Ohio State’s defense, especially with Patricia developing and executing complex defensive game plans.  I expect Ohio State to try to take advantage of the right side of Indiana’s offensive line who has had injury issues as right guard Bray Lynch ranks as about average per PFF (309 of 684 guards) and right tackle Ohio State transfer Zen Michalski ranks as slightly above average.

3-Ohio State’s passing game is elite with two first round NFL caliber wide receivers, great tight ends and even a running back in Bo Jackson who is a big pass catching threat out of the back field that will be extremely difficult for Indiana to contain.

I know Indiana played really well at Oregon against their very good passing game holding them to 186 yards and picking off two passes, but I would argue the Ducks pass offense is not nearly the level that Ohio State has.

It starts with Heisman contender Julian Sayin of course who has played amazingly for a first-year starter leading the nation in completion percentage at 78.9% and has thrown for 3,065 yards for 3^rd best in the Big Ten with 30 TDs and only 5 interceptions.  ESPN’s quarterback rating metric has Sayin #1 in the nation (though Fernando Mendoza is #2) and he is rated by PFF with the nations best both QB offensive rating and QB passing rating, while Mendoza ranks 14^th and 18^th in those categories.

Sayin has uncanny accuracy and also great pocket presence and ability to slide to complete tough throw.  Scouts frankly love BOTH these quarterbacks. Add to it this how great Ohio State’s pass blocking has been allowing only 6 sacks on Sayin for the year.  Against a good Michigan front Sayin was only hit one time and only 3 pressures were

Ohio State has the consensus best receiver combo in the nation starting with sophomore Jeremiah Smith who has 942 yards on the year with 11 touchdowns and has been a star ever since arriving at Ohio State and PFF has him playing as the 5^th best receiver this year and he is expected to a top 5 pick in next season’s NFL draft.  He is complimented by senior Carnell Tate who PPF has as the 4^th best performing receiver and has 793 yards and 8 TDs.  The Buckeyes use Tate to take big shots down the field.

Plus, Ohio State also has 3 good tight ends led by potential first day NFL pick Max Klare.  Ohio State runs sophisticated schemes from Ryan Day and OC Brian Hartline to leverage all these weapons.

And finally Ohio State’s running game supplements this pass attack and it’s getting better as the year goes along led by true freshman Bo Jackson who is 4^th in Big Ten rushing with 952 yards, 6.3 ypc, and 187 yards receiving. Jackson just had his best game of the season going for 117 yards at 5.3/carry against Michigan, along with 49 receiving yards.

Indiana has a great defense and excellent defensive backs.  We will talk to that when I cover why Indiana can cover, but they will have their hands full on Saturday.

Why Take the Points with Indiana:

1-I said that I don’t see Indiana having great running success against OSU and therefore QB Fernando Mendoza would need to have a great game passing and that is definitely in play as he is a great QB, has excellent receivers and Ohio State’s only relative defensive weakness is their cornerbacks.

As great as Ohio State’s defense is, they have not faced an offense nearly as good as Indiana’s and especially as good of a quarterback as Heisman contending quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been.  The Cal transfer has been dynamite and ranks second in the nation to Sayin in ESPN’s QB rating metric completing 72% of his passes for 32 TDs and only 5 interceptions while getting sacked 15 times.

Mendoza is tough and a strong leader with a penchant to make big plays which he did in the 4^th quarter overcoming a turnover in each game at Iowa, at Oregon (which was pick 6) and at Penn State, only to make big-time throws late in the game to lead the Hoosiers to victory.  Two things can be true at once.  The interceptions were bad mistakes by Mendoza that put Indiana in tough spots but each time he had the confidence to bounce back strong to do what was needed to win.

It’s safe to say though against Ohio State, Mendoza can probably not afford to have the initial mistake in the first place.

And like Ohio State, Indiana has outstanding skill players to throw to lead by senior and projected first day NFL draft selection Elijah Sarratt who has 650 yards receiving and 11 TDs despite missing several games and of course Omar Cooper Jr. who had the amazing game saving TD catch against Penn State and leads the team with 8-04 yards and 11 TDs as well.  Supplement them with 3^rd wideout Charlie Becker and PFF #9 rated tight end Riley Nowakowski and Indiana has more than enough weapons to really challenge the OSU secondary.

Assuming the Indiana offensive line gives Mendoza time, I think Indiana can really attack Ohio State on the outside, especially targeting good but not great Ohio State cornerback Jermaine Mathews Jr. who PFF ranks just 538^th among 924 CBs.

In fact, on 3^rd and long situations a great strategy for Indiana is throwing sideline and back shoulder throws where both Mathews and other cornerback Davison Igbinosun have shown a big tendency to get handsy and called for holding.  I think this is magnified even more in big games.  I view the OSU cornerbacks not as weak but a relative weakness that IU should try to exploit.

2-I felt the Indiana defense was the true strength of the team last year and it’s exactly the same this year and their front four has the personnel that could put a lot more pressure on QB Julian Sayin and their passing game strength that very few teams have achieved this year.

Indiana may be one of the few teams in the nation that can get this done.  And to be blunt, if Indiana can’t get pressure on Julian Sayin, I don’t think they can win this game. With the game indoors, I think Ohio State is going to want a successful passing game to set up the running game just like the plan was against Michigan.

Ohio State’s receivers and tight ends are elite, and Julian Sayin is extremely accurate so if he is given time, it doesn’t matter how good Indiana’s secondary is, somebody is going to be open and Sayin is extremely accurate and sharp in his decision making.

Indiana’s defensive line is the best Ohio State will face this year and all four starters rank well above average per PFF and are aggressive and very active led by left end and highest rated lineman Mikail Kamara and tackles Tyrique Tucker who has 10 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks.  In fact, Ohio State’s offensive line is far from infallible and Kamara will be going against the right side of their line that includes right guard tarter Tegra Tshabola has been inconsistent all year and sometimes bad as well as inconsistent right tackle Philip Daniels which gives Indiana a matchup they can take advantage of.

Like Ohio State, all 3 levels of defense for Indiana are strong and the linebacker group is very instinctive led by senior linebacker Aiden Fisher who is especially good against the run.

On the backend, senior cornerback DeAngelo Ponds is equipped to not allow either Jeremiah Smith or Carnell Tate to have a big game and is ranked as the 5^th best playing cornerback by Pro Football Focus (5 of 924 CBs) and the other 4 Indiana secondary players all have a PFF grade of at least 77.7 which is well above average meaning there is no true weakness in the IU secondary. Only thing concerning in this matchup is DeAngelo Ponds is 5 foot 9 and Jeremiah Smith is 6 foot 3 – you can’t just gloss over that.

Plus, Indiana’s Defensive Coordinator Bryant Haines has been as amazing as Matt Patricia in getting the most out of his unit and is considered one of the best DCs in the game.  Indiana has the defensive personnel to will make it harder for Ohio State than any team to move the ball down the field and will be a fascinating matchup to watch.

3-In games between relatively evenly matched teams, turnovers can be the difference and Indiana clearly has the advantage in this category ranking #1 in the nation in turnover margin.

Indiana is #1 in the nation in Turnover margin at +17.  Their defense is coached to create havoc and that’s exactly what IU Defensive Coordinator Bryant Haynes and his crew has done this year generating 24 turnovers that includes 16 interceptions (tied for 9^th in nation) and 8 fumble recoveries.

On the offensive side of things Indiana rarely turns the ball over with 7 total turnovers which is 3^rd best in the nation and they only have given up 6 interceptions and tied for best in the nation with only 1 lost fumble.  Indiana simply makes few mistakes and yet generates a ton of them.

Ohio State certainly does not have a turnover problem at +5 on the year, but it’s a much different philosophy.  On offense they take care of the ball exceptionally well with only 8 lost turnovers which is tied for 4^th best in the nation.  Julian Sayin has thrown only 5 interceptions on the year, and the Buckeyes have lost just 3 fumbles which ranks up there with the best in the nation.

Although it would be against Ohio State’s character to give up many turnovers, Indiana is an expert at creating them so even if they can be just +1 or +2 for the game that could be all they need to get the upset.  Sayin is just a redshirt freshman quarterback and Ohio State plays 2 true freshman running backs the most so that is where IU should target to get them.

Here’s a wildcard in the game and a Question: If this is a tight game who has the better Field Goal kicker that could dictate who wins the game? Statistically Indiana is better as sophomore Nicolas Radicic leads the nation in Field Goal percentage at 100% as the only kicker in FBS without a miss (13 for 13) and is 70 for 70 in extra points. Radicic is 4-4 in field goals from 40 to 49 yards.  (Note: and he won Big Ten kicker of the year).

Ohio State’s senior Jayden Fielding has also had a great year ranking tied for 15^th in the nation with a 88% FG rate (15 of 17).  Fielding is 53 of 53 in extra points and long distance is 3-3 from 40 to 49 yards and 0-1 in 50+ yard field goals.  But Fielding did miss two 30 something yard field goals last year vs. Michigan and if he only made one of those OSU possibly wins that game.  It makes me think Indiana has the advantage here if the game is a really tight one.

Big Jeff’s Call:   With both teams unbeaten and the consensus that the loser will still remain in the Top 4 and get a first round bye, there is not much risk in this game which is great because I expect both teams to play hyper aggressive in this game. 

That will be magnified even more by how aggressive Curt Cignetti is very aggressive in general and he knows Indiana is going to need to put up points and score TDs to beat Ohio State.  And for Ryan Day he just took care of the remaining question on his resume in beating Michigan (though he did beat them before) and so there is no reason he won’t be very aggressive as well. So, I expect very aggressive play calling and lots of going for it on 4^th downs to try to get TDs vs field goals.

Here’s another wild card question: Could Ohio State have an emotional let down from the big win against Michigan and start out the game slow from it allowing Indiana to get out to a lead furthering their belief they can pull an upset?  This is a very real threat given the stakes for Ohio State in breaking the 4-game Michigan losing streak.  Ultimately though, I think this coaching staff is too good and these players too professional in their demeanor to let that happen.  But it could.

The bottom line for me is this is 2 extremely well coached teams who have played elite football the entire year and I expect similar in this game.  But ultimately Ohio State has a deeper level of talent and just better overall star players (those unicorns) that will make the difference.  I like Ohio State to cover and win by 10.

Ohio State 31 Indiana 21.  Confidence: Medium

But this game will prove even more, Indiana has the type of team who can win it all and are no fluke as I would take Ohio State to win over any team in a single game.

Talk to how it is a big deal that OSU OC Brian Hartline is taking the South Florida coaching job.  He won’t be able to give 100% of his time to game planning so Ohio State is kind of screwed right?  Well, no.  They have a guy named Ryan Day who is pretty good at that ready to jump in and fill the gap since he used to do both jobs.

Note: I feel the 2-seed or even 3-seed is a better spot than the 1-seed since ….

Big Jeff’s “Lock City” Pick of the Week: #3 Georgia -2.5 #9 Alabama (47.5 FanDuel O/U)

Background:

I am not going to go into great detail on this matchup but it’s a fun one for many reasons but also cause I live in Atlanta and have so many Bulldogs fans who hate the Buckeyes and still aren’t 100% convinced about the Hoosiers.  Indiana is going to have to beat an SEC team in the playoffs to make believers of them which is exactly what I am hoping for.

Georgia fans have grown to respect (they still hate) the Buckeyes ever since they outplayed Georgia in the 2022 season semi-final game only to lose a big lead and fail to make the game ending 50-yard field goal at midnight.  That night really sucked.

Georgia is 11-1 overall and 7-1 in the SEC and a win would secure one of the 4 first round playoff byes.  Like recently for Ohio State and their 4 game losing streak to Michigan, Kirby Smart and Georgia’s kryptonite is Alabama who Kirby has only beaten once in the 2021 Championship game and has a 1-7 record.

Alabama is 10-2 overall and 7-1 in the SEC and even beat Georgia already earlier this year and if they win will certainly host a home first round playoff game and at #9 might even still make the field if they lose in a good showing vs the Dawgs.

ESPN’s SP+ has Georgia ranked 6^th in the nation and Alabama 12^th. 

Year-to-date Georgia is 5-7 against the spread and has not covered their last 2 games, while Alabama is 8-4 against the spread and covered 3 of their past 4 games.

Who Will Win:

Instead of my usual deep dive reasons for why one team can cover vs another, I am not over complicating this.  Statistically these 2 teams are very similar but the biggest difference is Georgia’s offense is based on an effective run game, while Alabama has a very weak rushing attack and relies on Ty Simpson’s passing for their offense.

For Total Offense, Georgia is 7^th in the SEC at 416 yards/game and Alabama is right behind them at 8^th in the SEC and 404 ypg.

For Total Defense, Alabama is 3^rd in the SEC yielding 282 yards/game, while Georgia is 4^th in the SEC yielding about 8 more yards/game than Bama (291 ypg).

I did check out turnover margin as well where Alabama is +8, while Georgia is -1 so the Crimson Tide takes better care of the ball.

Big Jeff’s Call:   Yes, Kirby Smart and Georgia do have an Alabama problem.  Smart is 1-6 against Saban’s Alabama teams and lost by 3 to Kalen DeBoer this year but I think Georgia has improved since then and I really don’t like Alabama’s inability to run the ball well ranking 103^rd in the nation and at 3.7 yards/carry. 

For Bama to win I feel they will need Georgia turnovers which certainly can happen but I am counting on Kirby’s Bama problem to have been mostly a “Saban problem” so I am taking Georgia to win and the points. 

Georgia 27 Alabama 21.  Confidence: High