Big Jeff’s Week 3 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Week 2 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 3 picks, let’s first review how I did in Week 2. 

Summary Comments:

• It was not a good week, after going 3-2 in week 1, I went only 1-4 to make my year-to-date record 4-6. 
• Not that shocking since early in the year it’s hard to judge these teams given the bad schedules.

What I Got Wrong:

• First, Illinois was favored by 3.5 at Duke and I took Duke to cover since I feel Illinois while good, is overrated.
• I lost because Duke basically handed the game to Illinois with 5 turnover to 0; credit to Illinois for taking advantage of this – but I did choose Illinois to win.
• At halftime this was very tight despite 2 bad turnovers and Illinois looked just OK.
• Illinois has an easy schedule with only 4 big tests in my view.  They passed this one but the Indiana Game in Week 4 is the Big One.  Win that one and it will change my opinion on the Illini.
• Second, I Lost Iowa game with Iowa St favored by 2.5 – this was case where I wrote Iowa St. QB Rocco Becht could single handedly win this game and was worried Gronowski would struggle again and that is exactly what happened.
• But I stuck with choosing Iowa to win ONLY because I had chosen them in the pre-season – dumb move.
• I wanted to change my pick but didn’t – going forward I am not going to get influenced by my pre-season picks.
• Third, I had Oklahoma beating Michigan by 3 but not covering the 5.5 spread.
• Oklahoma won by 11 despite many mistakes so this game should have been a bigger margin.
• Michigan has to be concerned with: (1) lack of receivers who can get open (2) Offensive Line who lost the battle up front (3) Defensive line who many felt would not take a big step back but looks like they might (4) Feeling maybe the coaching staff is over their head. 
• For me the Defense was the most disappointing thing since I knew Bryce Underwood would struggle with that defense now coached by Brent Venables, plus the talent of Mateer.
• The disaster was choosing UCLA to cover the 2.5 pts to UNLV and win by 10. 
• UCLA lost by 7 and Bruin fans are wondering if the DeShaun Foster hire was a big mistake.
• It looks like a poorly coached team, and I felt the offense would start to improve under their new QB and OC but it hasn’t happened.

What I Got Right:

• I figured Boston College at Michigan State would be extremely tight and I had Sparty winning by 3 and not covering as a 6-point favorite and they won by 2 in OT.
• It was a good win for the Spartans, but they should win at home anyway. I am not sure yet how good they are but I had said before the season I think they are a year away from being really good.  Maybe they will arrive a year early?  We may find out in Week 4 at USC.

Big Jeff’s Week 2 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

College Football Week 3 Picks: Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Florida-LSU, Georgia-Tennessee

Week 3 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

(Odds by FanDuel on 9/11/25).

This week I will predict the two Big Ten in-conference games plus the 3 most compelling others.

Note: See far below for listing and spreads for all 10 other Big Ten team games in Week 3.

Game 1: UCLA -15.5 New Mexico (52.5 O/U)

Background:

UCLA has completely stumbled out of the gate for DeShaun Foster losing to Utah 43-10 and in Week 2 at UNLV (30-23) and the natives (Bruin fans) are getting very restless wondering if they made a major hiring mistake.  I had said the UNLV game was already a must win for UCLA’s bowl hopes.  UCLA needs a win for the team’s confidence and the fans sanity.

UCLA is second to last in the Big Ten in offense at 324 yards/game as new QB Nico Iamaleava and new DC Tino Sunseri are struggling to get the offense going.  Add to it the UCLA defense is ranked last in the Big Ten giving up 421 yards/game, though that includes playing 20^th ranked Utah. ESPN’s SP+ has UCLA currently 80^th of 136 teams.

New Mexico is 1-1 after losing at Michigan 34-17 in Week 1 being outgained 452 yards to 267 and then beating Idaho State at home 32-22 last week.  They have a first-year coach in Jason Eck who came from Idaho and New Mexico lost star QB Devon Dampier from a 5-7 season last year to Utah and he is badly missed as he has shined so far for the Utes.  ESPN’s SP+ has New Mexico 122^nd and 131^st in defense.

Why UCLA Can Cover:  

What is UCLA good at right now?  It’s a legit question.  The offense was supposed to be better with Nico, but they are 3^rd to last in the Big Ten in passing and 2^nd to last in rushing. 

Looking beyond the poor stats from the Utah opener, the offense last week wasn’t bad with 428 yards and were pretty balanced so if they maintain that vs New Mexico a 15.5 spread is doable.  Against UNLV in week 2, Nico Iamaleava was 29-41 for 255 yards, a TD and an interception, and much better than week 1.  And the Bruins had 173 yards rushing on a promising 5.8 yards/carry.  A worry though is PFF has the Bruins with the worst rated offensive line in the Big Ten.

Maybe the fact UCLA played much better in the second half means they started to gain their footing which will carry over into Game 3.  The Bruins closed a 20-point halftime deficit (23-3) to the Lobos to lose by just seven.  They had 5 drives in the second half that went TD (75 yards), FG (52 yards), TD (78 yards), FG (42 yards) and then drove 57 yards on the last drive to try to tie the game before an Interception with 1:25 to play.  That looks like progress.

Why Take the Points with New Mexico: 

New Mexico hung in there at Michigan in week 1 losing by 17 so they should not be intimidated likely playing in front of less than 20,000 fans at UCLA.  After 3 quarters in Ann Arbor, the Lobos were only down 27-17 vs Michigan.   And if not for losing the turnover battle 3-1 to the Wolverines that score may have been even closer.

The Lobos have a deep running back room led by Junior Scooter Humphrey who should have success against UCLA’s worst Big Ten defense vs. the run (217 ypg).  Humphrey is a transfer from Montana State who had 1,386 yards and 16 touchdowns last year, and though he struggled vs Michigan (33 yards @ 3.3 ypc) he thrived last week vs. Idaho with 141 yards at 7.8 yards/carry, leading a rushing attack that had 218 total yards.  Expect the Lobos to run the ball and control the clock to keep the ball from UCLA and Nico who need possessions to find a rhythm.

Big Jeffs Call: UCLA can’t have much confidence right now and need to figure out what their identity is.  But if you look at how in the second half they scored on 4 of their first 4 possessions before an INT on the final drive, and outgaining the Lobos 304 yards to 98 in the half, it tells me UCLA may have found themselves offensively. 

I have gone back and forth on this game. UCLA has to be desperate for a win, and I assume like last year the team won’t quit for Foster BUT while I see them playing better and winning, 15.5 points is just too much for me.  UCLA wins by 14 but does not cover so I take New Mexico.  UCLA 31 New Mexico 17.

Game 2: #4 Oregon -27.5 NORTHWESTERN (49.5 O/U)

Background:

Oregon is 2-0 after last week’s 69-3 thrashing of Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State punishing them for Gundy’s comments about how much money Oregon spends on their team.  You knew it was coming but the level of domination was impressive as the Ducks outgained them 631 to 211. 

One of the few questions Oregon had coming into the year was new starting QB Dante Moore, but he has performed very well and on the year has averaged 240 yards/game, a 77% completion percentage, and 6 TDs with 0 interceptions. 

Some have said Oregon is the least talked about Top 10 team and I agree with that.  I think the blowout loss to Ohio State in the Playoffs last year are still what too many people remember which is unfair because sometimes games just get away from people.  I also think a motivational coach like Dan Lanning secretly LOVES the fact that the Ducks are getting disrespected.  He will leverage that to motivate his team.

Northwestern is 1-1 after getting blown out by a talented Group of 5 Tulane team 23-3 in game 1 but followed that up with a solid 42-7 home win over a bad Western Illinois team outgaining the Bulldogs 526-181. 

Most importantly, SMU transfer QB Preston Stone had a good game going 21-29 for 245 yards and 3 TDs after throwing a scary 5 interceptions vs Tulane.  Northwestern’s offense last year was an atrocious 130^th in the nation in total offense and last in the Big Ten, so it’s imperative for Stone to play well to get their offense up the respectable level it will take for the Cats to win games.

Why Oregon Can Cover:

Northwestern will be too one-dimensional and reliant on a still in question passing attack and will struggle to score points on Oregon.  The Wildcats got terrible news that their best and most experienced (fifth year) running back Cam Porter who just ran for 91 yards (@ 7.6 ypc) vs Western Illinois is out for the season.  Last year Northwestern was 122^nd in rushing offense.  Oregon’s defense is much better than Tulane’s who held the Wildcats to 2.8 yards/carry and 76 total yards in Game 1. 

Dante Moore is playing too well at QB and Oregon has too much offensive balance for Northwestern to contain their offense.  Per NFL passer rating stats by PFF, Dante Moore has a 151.4 QB rating good for 4^th best in the Big Ten, but most impressively he is making good decisions as a young QB with 0 interceptions. 

Oregon is passing for 286 yards/game for 3^rd in the Big Ten and is 4^th in the nation at 11.4 yards/pass attempt.  They are rushing for 283 yards/game also 3^rd in the Big Ten and are tied for 2^nd in total offense, while averaging 7.4 ypc, which is 4^th best in the nation.  It’s hard to defend a team that rushes and passes that efficiently.

Matchups and Motivation.  I don’t see Oregon having a letdown and are extremely motivated right now.  After pounding Oklahoma State last week, the Ducks could have a letdown, but I feel it’s still too early in the season for that and they seem very locked in right now.  Also, Dan Lanning knows how they look in victories is going to have a big influence on the seeding they get in the playoffs which is a big deal.

Why take the points with Northwestern: 

Northwestern’s defense has actually played pretty well this year and could hold down Oregon’s offense enough to cover.  Northwestern has 5 defensive starters returning from a team who last year was ranked a solid 56^th in the nation in Total Defense (@ 362 yards/game).  Though they did give up 40 or more points 3 times last year (41 to Indiana, 40 to Iowa (ugh), and 50 to Michigan.

Against a good Tulane team, Northwestern gave up 421 total yards but given they handed Tulane 5 interceptions (turnovers) I was pretty impressed with that.  They also contained Tulane’s passing game giving up just 4.8 yards/pass.  Then they also gave up only 181 in Week 2.  The key will be Northwestern not giving up big plays and making Oregon earn it and methodically go down the field. 

Maybe Northwestern and Preston Stone found themselves enough on offense in Week 2 to score in the upper teens to cover.  If the Wildcats can score something like 17 points, then Oregon has to score 45 to cover.  Preston Stone bounced back strong last week vs Western Illinois. 

Though Northwestern is not super talented at the wide receiver position they are going against an Oregon defensive backfield who lost all 5 starters (they play a 3 man line) and are still untested. It’s vital for Northwestern to have success through the air to keep drives alive and keep this close.

Big Jeff’s Call:

Northwestern is offensively challenged and with RB Cam Porter out I don’t see the Wildcats throwing well enough to score more than 10 points.  Assuming they do score 10 points means to cover Oregon needs to score 38 points which I think they do pretty easily. Take the Ducks and the points.  Oregon 45 Northwestern 10.

Game 3: #19 ALABAMA -21.5 vs Wisconsin (46.5 O/U)

Background:

The battle of two coaches on the hot seat.  For Alabama, it’s the second year for new coach Kalen DeBoer taking over for legend Nick Saban and after a disappointing 9-4 first year, the Tide opened the season losing at Florida State 31-17 as a big double digit favorite.  This sent Alabama fans into a literal frenzy with many wanting DeBoer fired ASAP since it wasn’t just the loss, but the Tide looked undisciplined and had player effort issues.  DeBoer has a huge buyout so he will be given most of this year at the minimum to prove himself.

In Week 2 the Tide plastered an overmatched University of Louisiana Monroe team 73-0 at home outgaining the Warhawks 583 to 148 after Florida State had outgained them 382 to 341 in Week 1. New Tide quarterback Ty Simpson had a big bounce back game going a perfect 17-17 for 226 yards and 3 TDs, and Bama also rushed for 212 yards.

Meanwhile Wisconsin is coming off Luke Fickell’s first two year of very disappointing play going 12-13 and breaking their long streak of going to bowl games last year. 

In a game one 17-0 win over Miami (OH), Maryland transfer quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. got hurt early in the game and the Badgers turned to San Diego State transfer sophomore Danny O’Neil but the offense struggled in the pass game as O’Neil went 12-19 for 120 yards and the Badgers outgained the RedHawks 353-117.  The bright spot was the defense who held Miami to 0-9 on third downs.  Wisconsin was only up 3-0 at the half.

In Game 2 last week, Wisconsin got off to another slow start against Middle Tennessee State leading just 14-10 at the half.  But the Badgers got it going the second half and rolled 42-10 as O’Neil was an efficient 23-27 for 283 yards, 1 TD and an interception.  A big concern after 2 games is the offensive line as Wisconsin has averaged just 4.3 yards/carry against low competition and ranks 13^th in the Big Ten.

Why Alabama Can Cover:

Wisconsin QB Billy Edwards Jr. is unlikely to play greatly limiting the Badgers upside on offense vs a talented Alabama defense.  After suffering an injury in Game 1, Edwards is officially “week-to-week” but I think the Badgers would be crazy to bring him back early for this game as a big underdog.  They need him healthy for the important Big Ten games coming up.  That means O’Neil will start again and he simply is not nearly as talented as Edwards Jr. and PFF has O’Neil as statistically the 16^th best Big Ten QB.

Bama can shut down what Wisconsin wants to do which is run the ball and limit the number of possession’s the Tide has.  The biggest concern for Wisconsin is the offensive line and their ability to run as Wisconsin’s 4.3 yards/carry is a bad sign.  Bama has a very talented front and given up just 3.99 yards/rush.  If the Badgers can’t get the run game going they will have many 3^rd and longs and with their backup QB O’Neil running the offense and a lack of big-time receivers that will become a problem.

The talent gap is big and favors the Tide.  Despite some high-profile transfers out of Alabama the reality is their roster is superior to Wisconsin filled with lots of NFL potential.  The Tide’s past 5 year recruiting classes rank an average of 1.8 nationally  which is the best in the SEC and the nation, while the Badgers average 34^th which is 9^th best in the Big Ten.  The reality is the Tide has lots of NFL talent while the Badgers don’t, it’s a matter if this Bama staff can get them to play to their potential.

Why take the points with Wisconsin: 

The past Alabama “fear factor” may be over.  It used to be just the name Alabama would make most opponents nervous and not confident they really can beat them.  With the Tide having lost 4 times already to non-Top 25 teams in a little over one season under DeBoer, that psychological edge is likely not there.  And if the Wisconsin coaching staff does their job, the Badgers should go into this game believing they can win.

Wisconsin’s defense is good enough to limit Alabama and make the crowd antsy which could affect the overall play of the Tide as they know their coach is under fire.  Though Wisconsin has played two weak teams, they still are holding teams to 179 yards/game which is 3^rd in the nation and only given up 10 points total.  There are signs this defense could be more like the traditional hard-nosed defenses from the past we have grown to expect.  They have been especially stingy against the run giving up only 34 yards/game which is 4^th best in the nation.

If Wisconsin’s defense contains the Tide and keeps the game close, things could get awfully uncomfortable in Tuscaloosa.

Big Jeff’s Call: Alabama is going to be very motivated in this game to prove the Florida State loss did not extinguish their goals that include making the playoffs.  Wisconsin is motivated to show they are a different team this year and can compete with anyone.  I worry about Wisconsin’s confidence and it’s a very tough environment in Tuscaloosa if they don’t get out to a good start.  Bama still has legit Top 5 talent, and I think that shows in this game and if they get ahead, they won’t take their foot off the gas.  I like Bama to win and cover.   Alabama 35 Wisconsin 10.

Game 4: USC (Away) -21.5  PURDUE (58.5 O/U)

Background:

Although I only projected USC to go 8-4 this year, I actually have them as my Big Ten “sleeper team” who could make an unexpected run at a playoff spot.  That 8-4 would include a projected loss at Notre Dame so the reality I have USC more like a 9-3 team and their ceiling could even be higher.  Vegas agree with me as USC currently has the Tied for 15^th best odds to win the national title (at +4000), despite being unranked in the AP poll.

USC’s offense has looked great in their 2-0 start that includes beating up Missour State 73-13 and Georgia Southern 59-20 that included 755 yards of total offense.  It’s just two games but the Trojans lead the nation in Total Offense at 676 yards/game and scoring at 66 points/game.  QB Jaden Maiava has completed 74% of his passes at 353 yards/game and importantly no interceptions which was a problem his two previous years (16 total INTs).

Meanwhile, new Purdue coach Barry Odom is off to a good 2-0 start as Purdue has looked better than expected in a 31-0 win over Ball State and 34-17 over FCS Southern Illinois.  Odom has over 50 transfers so it may take time for this team to gell a little bit.

Purdue outgained Ball State 433-203 behind 311 passing yards from QB Ryan Browne but then only outgained Southern Illinois 384 to 283.

Why take the points with USC:

USC’s offense looks like a typical Lincoln Riley high scoring machine that will make it hard Purdue offense to keep up. USC’s offense has looked spectacular for both the run and pass with the Trojans passing offense 3^rd in the nation at 405 yards/game and the run offense 9^th at 271 yards/game including a nations leading 8.6 yards/carry.  It’s hard to see Purdue’s defense that is virtually all transfers being able to slow down the Trojans.

While Purdue has exceeded most expectations early, they also have played terrible competition making the early results very difficult to judge.  Ball State is a bad team rated in the pre-season ESPN SP+ rankings as the 134^th team in the nation (out of 136), so a 31-point win is decent.  And only winning by 17 over a weak FCS team that went 4-8 last year in S. Illinois is not impressive.   USC’s talent makes this a huge step up in competition.

Purdue’s lack of a run game is surprising given a talented RB like Devin Mockobee and relying on their passing game is not a recipe for success.  Mockobee is averaging only 3.7 ypc vs bad competition and Purdue averages only 154 yards/game for 16^th in the Big Ten..  With Mockobee Purdue was hoping the run game would be their strength.  Ryan Browne has some good talent and has played pretty well completing 65% of his passes at 240 yards/game but he is not throwing to a talented receiving core making the Purdue pass game upside limited.

Why Purdue Can Cover: 

USC is traveling a long way for the game and the travel and time change can often have a negative effect.

Purdue needs to hope to get Mockobee and that run game rolling but USC is giving up just 3.3 yards/carry.

I can’t find a 3^rd reason which is telling.

Big Jeff’s Call: What is Purdue’s strength?  I suppose defense but given the competition I am not so sure.  USC’s talent advantage is stark and though the Trojans are traveling a long way, it’s too early in the season I think for that to be a major factor and the game starts at 3:30 EST, which is only 12:30 Pacific time.  USC and Lincoln Riley are motivated to establish themselves as a true Big Ten and Playoff contender and I expect them to roll and easily cover the 21.5.  USC 48 Purdue 13.

Game 5: Minnesota -2.5 vs. CALIFORNIA (-42.5 O/U)

Background:

This matchup looked like a good one before the season started and now looks even more compelling between two 2-0 teams with two first year starting quarterbacks who have looked like they have very high ceilings.

For Minnesota, redshirt freshman QB Drake Lindsey has an NFL body at 6’5” and 230 and has a live arm and through 2 games has thrown for 429 yards with 3 TDs and an interception.

The Gophers beat Buffalo 23-10 in Week 1 but the margin should have been higher as the Gophers outgained the Bulls 443 to 151 and gave up a fluky interception TD when the ball bounced off a player.  Buffalo’s pre-season ESPN SP+ was 94.  In Week 2 Minnesota smoked outmatched FCS team Northwestern State 66-0 and had 484 to 42 in total yardage while holding the Demons to 2 first downs.

California meanwhile (who are in the ACC of course 😊) is also off to a strong 2-0 start with an impressive Week 1 win vs Oregon State 34-15 and last week thumped FCS level Texas Southern 35-3 behind a 467 to 192 total offense advantage.

Cal starts a true freshman, 6’3” 225 lb Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele who surprisingly beat out Ohio State transfer Junior Devin Brown for the starting job after Fernando Mendoza had a big year but transferred to Indiana.  Sagapolutele and is completing 69% of his passes with 3 TDs and 1 interception while averaging 250 yards passing/game. The Hawaiian has Bears fans optimistic they can improve on their 6-7 season from last year under 9^th year coach Justin Wilcox.

Why Minnesota can cover:

With the emergence of Lindsey at quarterback, for the first time in a long time the Gophers look like a truly balanced and thus dangerous offense.   For years Minnesota relied on their run game and strong defense to win.  Last year, they actually relied on QB Max Brosmer’s passing ability and last year were 76^th in the nation in pass offense and just 109^th in rushing offense even with a talented running back like Darius Taylor.

So far this year Minnesota is 6^th in the Big Ten in offense including 7^th in passing (258 ypg) and 6^th in rushing (206 ypg) and 4.6 yards/carry. a

Minnesota likely once again has a nasty defense that will limit opponents scoring and get a lot of turnovers.  Granted it’s not against high level competition, but the Gophers lead the Big Ten and the nation in total defense at 96.5 yards/game and already are +3 in turnover margin after last year having the 9^th best scoring defense in the nation (16.9 ppg), 5^th in total defense at 286 yards/game, and +9 in turnover margin for the year. 

All this under a new DC in Danny Collins who looks to continue Minnesota’s strong defensive tradition led by star safety sophomore and potential All-American Koi Perich.

Why take the points with California:

The emergence of Sagapolutele at QB to replace Mendoza has been a revelation given he’s a true freshman raising the upside of the Cal offense. After losing Mendoza to Indiana it looked like Cal’s offense would drop off from last year’s unit that ranked 74^th in the nation in Total Offense (380 ypg) but was 37^th in passing at 259 yards/game.  While Cal is averaging a solid 412 yards/game, Sagapolutele has kept the passing game from dropping off averaging 264 yards/game.

California lost a lot on offense beyond Mendoza, losing the top 3 of 4 receivers, star running back Jaydn Ott to Oklahoma and tight end Jack Endries to Texas.  OC Bryan Harsin (former Auburn head coach) also is working with no returning starters on the offensive line while being reliant on transfers so with all this turnover the sustainability of the offense is a concern, but so far so good.

The defense was expected to be good and so far is 3^rd in total ACC defense (after finishing 36^th in the nation last year) and is capable of containing the Gophers.  Head Coach Justin Wilcox specializes in defense, and this team fits that mold as the Golden Bears have given up just 18 points in two games and only 59 yards rushing/game.  The Cal defense is good and experienced with 4 returning starters, 10 of 11 starters being Juniors or Seniors, and a strong front seven.

Big Jeff’s Call: California start has to provide the team a lot of confidence and they are at home.  A key question for this game is which quarterback might play more like a freshman since despite the strong starts for both QBs it’s unlikely they won’t have times of inconsistent play. 

Overall Minnesota has been more impressive than Cal I think, and I love the balance Lindsey has provided the Gophers so far on offense.  This is a good battle between two experienced coaches but I like the Gophers overall talent more and take them to win and cover the 2.5 points.   Minnesota 24 California 17.

Big Ten Non-Conference Other (10) Games

Week 3 FanDuel Spreads (Home team in CAPS)

As of 9.11.25

Friday Games

INDIANA -48.5 Indiana State

Saturday Games

MICHIGAN -27.5 Central Michigan

NEBRASKA (No Line) Houston Christian

MARYLAND (No Line) Towson

PENN STATE -48.5 Villanova

RUTGERS (No Line) Norfolk State

MICHIGAN STATE (No Line) Youngstown State

OHIO STATE -31.5 Ohio University

ILLINOIS -27.5 Western Michigan

IOWA -35.5 Massachusetts