Big Ten Championship Game Insights and What a 16-Team with Auto Bid Playoffs would look like this year

Championship Week 15 Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

(Odds by FanDuel on 12.4.25).

General Comments:

• In Championship Week 15, I went 1-1 winning my Lock City pick of the week but lost the Big Ten Championship game (see results Table Below).
• For the season I am now 30-30 overall and 7-5 in my Lock City picks.
• Let’s do a quick review of what I got right and wrong in my Championship Week picks.

What I Got Wrong in Championship Week 15: 

• In the Big Ten Championship game I had Ohio State beating Indiana 31 to 21 and covering the 4.5 point spread.
  • This one was way off in the result and how many points would be scored as of course Indiana won in a very low scoring affair 13-10.
  • This was Ohio State’s only second time this season not covering the spread.
  • While my prediction was very wrong, it’s helpful to look at what I got right and wrong in the analysis of the game since there are relevant insights and ramifications for the playoffs.
  • Why OSU Can Cover:
  • 1-I don’t think Indiana will be able to run consistently on Ohio State and so Fernando Mendoza will have to play a truly great game passing the ball (which he is certainly capable of) for Indiana to cover or win the game.
  • I was mostly right on this one.  I had written that for Indiana despite having the #9 nations rushing offense (230 ypg) against the 4 teams Indiana played with really good front sevens, they averaged 101 yards/game rushing at 2.8 yards per carry.
  • OSU certainly did not shut down Indiana’s run game but they only had 118 total yards at 3.5 yards/carry, well off their 5.6 ypc average.
  • But the rush offense was just good enough when you combined that with Mendoza having a really good game and especially in the second half when he made several big-time clutch throws finishing 15-23 for 222 yards and 1 TD and 1 interception.  Those aren’t huge numbers but against Ohio State’s nation’s best passing defense (121 ypg) those were great results.
  • 2-Ohio State’s defense might be an all-time great college defense that has high level NFL players across all 3 levels of their defense and some who are true unicorns and they simply will make it hard for Indiana to score enough to win.
  • I got this one right.  Indiana came in with the #2 scoring offense in the country at 44.3 ppg and Ohio State held them to just 13 points and it took a Heisman winning quarterback to make some great throws just to get that many.  The OSU defense gave up some yards (340 vs the IU 484 avg.) but that effort and yielding only 13 points should have been more than enough to win the game.
  • 3-Ohio State’s passing game is elite with two first round NFL caliber wide receivers, great tight ends and even a running back in Bo Jackson who is a big pass catching threat out of the back field that will be extremely difficult for Indiana to contain.
  • This one was only partially right because their pass game is elite but not when your offensive line definitely loses the battle vs Indiana’s defensive line who were consistently able to get pressure on Julian Sayin who had been sacked 6 times all year coming in but was sacked 5 times in this game alone.
  • Indiana’s DC Bryant Haines secondary and zone coverage did a great job in also confusing Julian Sayin and combined with the pass rush the OSU passing game really never found a great rhythm.  Sayin finished 21 of 29 for 258 yards and 1 TD and 1 interception but taking away the last hail-mary completion to Jeremiah Smith it was 212 yards passing.
  • The game revealed a weak link on the offensive line all season for the Buckeyes must be addressed if they hope to repeat as champs. All season senior right guard Tegra Tshabola has been inconsistent and unreliable and he was awful in this game with a horrible 17.6 PFF pass blocking grade on 28 snaps and well below average 51.6 overall blocking grade.
  • The rest of the line wasn’t great and that is direct credit to Indiana’s linemen but in the second half OSU went with sophomore Gabe VanSickle at right guard who played well and graded best of any linemen in pass blocking at a great 86.5 in 29 snaps.  Moving forward, Ohio State probably needs to go with the younger VanSickle in the playoffs.
  • Why Take the Points with Indiana:
  • 1-I said that I don’t see Indiana having great running success against OSU and therefore QB Fernando Mendoza would need to have a great game passing and that is definitely in play as he is a great QB, has excellent receivers and Ohio State’s only relative defensive weakness is their cornerbacks.
  • I was correct on this as importantly beyond Mendoza’s ability to have success given his ability and his high level receivers I highlighted the relative weakness of Ohio State’s cornerbacks who are very good but not elite and don’t have a first round pick type of starter.
  • I called out specifically junior cornerback Jermaine Mathews Jr as someone who Indiana should target as he ranked only 538^th among 924 CBs per PFF.  The TD throw to Elijah Sarratt and then 4^th quarter long 3^rd down conversion throw to Charlie Becker were both against Mathews who had a poor 48 PFF pass coverage ranking, though on both those plays he actually was in pretty good position to make a play but the ball was just thrown too well by Mendoza. 
  • This highlights the great coaching and gameplan Indiana had and for Ohio State I am not too worried on their corners unless they face Indiana and Mendoza again in the playoffs, but cornerback for the Buckeyes is not great like their other defensive positions.
  • 2-I felt the Indiana defense was the true strength of the team last year and it’s exactly the same this year and their front four has the personnel that could put a lot more pressure on QB Julian Sayin and their passing game strength that very few teams have achieved this year.
  • Nailed this one.  As we already discussed, Indiana’s front four clearly won the battle upfront and put lots of pressure on Sayin which was one of the big keys to the win and in holding OSU to only 10 points with all that firepower is a truly remarkable performance.
  • Indiana also did well against Oregon’s excellent offensive line so their front 4 and front 7 are going to be major problems for playoff opponents and it reinforces their defense is the difference maker for IU along with Mendoza of course.
  • Indiana’s secondary also played extremely well as a unit and showed there is no significant weak area on this defense leaving little doubt both Indiana and Ohio State have the two best defenses in the nation.  Ohio State’s is more dominant overall, but Indiana’s is clearly more disruptive.
  • 3-In games between relatively evenly matched teams, turnovers can be the difference, and Indiana clearly has the advantage in this category ranking #1 in the nation in turnover margin.
  • Turnovers were not a big difference maker as both teams gave up 1 interception on plays that were frankly more great defensive plays than truly bad throws.
  • I had also said one big wildcard in this game was if it’s a tight game who has the better Field Goal kicker that could dictate who wins the game.
  • Indiana surprisingly missed a first half 39-yard Field Goal by Big Ten kicker of the year Nicolas Radicic and it was his first miss all season, but it was even bigger that Ohio State kicker Jayden Fielding missed a simple 27-yard field goal to tie the game with 2:48 left after OSU had marched 81 yards over almost 8 minutes.  It was then you kind of knew this game was destined for Indiana to win it.
  • Fielding actually had a really good year this year, but a huge takeaway concern is his ability to make field goals in clutch moments as he also missed two 30 something year field goals in the upset loss to Michigan last year that likely would have allowed Ohio State to prevail.  Can Ohio State really count on Fielding in the playoffs?
  • I had also listed as a wildcard if Ohio State might have a letdown after the huge Michigan victory.  I should have added the distraction of OC Brian Harline being named South Florida’s new head coach.  How focused was he on creating a great, game winning offensive game plan vs. thinking of his new job?  The game plan did not seem like a good one.
  • It couldn’t have helped, especially with just one week preparing for this game.  I think there is little doubt, the takeaway is Ryan Day needs to take over the offensive game planning and likely main play calling while still leveraging Hartline’s expertise.   He can’t rely on Harline like he might have earlier in the season.
  • In summary, though not high scoring this game was an instant classic between two teams with elite defenses, and offenses with excellent quarterbacks and great skill players but whose offenses are a step behind their defense.
  • It was the type of game that if Ohio State had won, either side could point to this play or that play as if it went the other way, they would have won. 
  • For Ohio State as the loser the ones that stood out to me were: (1) In the 2^nd quarter with OSU up 7-3, Jeremiah Smith beat DeAngelo Ponds on the right side and if Julian Sayin hits him in stride, it’s a 74-yard TD that puts OSU up 14-3.  Instead, Smith had to wait for the ball and to IU’s defenses credit OSU had to settle for a 30-yard Fielding FG to go up only 10-3.
  • The second huge play was Indiana up 13-10 in the third quarter and Ohio State marches 70 yards and with 1:34 in the quarter have a 4^th and 1 at the IU 5 and Sayin sneaks it and what appeared to be a first down was taken away when replay showed Sayin’s knee hit the ground.  Again, just a huge momentum swinging play where Ohio State maybe goes ahead there.
  • Then the next OSU drive of course was the missed tying Fielding field goal.
  • In other words, it was razor thin and really a one play game that was as tight as you can get, but Indiana was the more deserving team and made the big-time plays needed in tight games to get the W.
  • These sequences do highlight a major concern for Ohio State though in the playoffs which is their continued struggles in the red zone to score touchdowns.  They had drives in the second half of 70 yards and 81 yards and came away with zero points.  That was their death knell, and they need to figure it out.  It’s all that much harder as well because Sayin is not a running quarterback so it will take much better execution.
  • The great news though for both teams, I think they are in great spots.
  • For Indiana, they have all the confidence they need to believe they can beat any team and there is reason they can’t be National Champions.
  • Indiana’s biggest worry is “Rat Poison” which is a very real thing.  especially when Mendoza wins the Heisman – they are going to be battling that big time.  EVERYBODY is going to be telling them how great they are, and there’s the risk they lose their focus a little bit and lose that competitive edge they clearly brought into the Ohio State game.
  • For Ohio State, as defending champs they have really been fighting rat poison since winning the title last January.  All teams that win a title face this and it’s one of the big reasons it’s very rare to repeat as champions.
  • But this is why I actually think Ohio State losing this game is a very good thing for them.  Losing throws “rate poison” into the garbage can and can cause teams to get that focus back and get that hyper competitive edge back in play. 
  • It’s also why it’s so hard for teams to beat another team twice in one season since the other team has the revenge factor, with the loss also magnifying the team’s focus.  For that reason, if I were an Indiana fan I would be rooting heavily against a rematch.

What I Got Right in Championship Week 15

• In my Lock City pick of the week, I took Georgia to beat Alabama 27 to 21 and cover the 2.5 point spread, which Georgia easily did in a dominant 28-7 win over the Tide.
  • This was a big win for Kirby Smart since he was 1-7 vs Alabama and was 0-2 against Kalen DeBoer.
  • Watching Alabama leading up to this game it was very clear they weren’t playing well and with their inability to run the ball it was just a bad matchup when facing a well-coached defense like Georgia’s.
  • So, I was not surprised at all with the Bulldogs winning so easily.
  • My takeaway for Georgia did not change, which is they are a legit threat to win it all, despite being nowhere as dominant as Kirby’s two championship teams – they still are really good at finding ways to win.
  • For Alabama, I don’t consider them a serious contender to win it all.  Too many weaknesses and they are frankly to even be in the playoffs.

Big Jeff’s Championship Week 15 Football Picks – Big Jeff’s Football

What Potential Matchups in 16- and 24-Team CFP Formats Would Look Like in 2025

Big Ten Bowls – First Game

All Odds by FanDuel as of 12.9.25.

The Big Ten had 3 teams make the playoffs and another 9 teams qualify for standard bowl games (see Table below).  The first game is this Saturday where Washington is favored by 9.5 over Washington and it’s the only Big Ten game this week so I will predict that as my Game of the Week.

Of the 10 known matchups we have, the Big Ten is favored in 5 of them with the biggest favorite of Oregon giving 21.5 points to James Madison in a home game for the first round of the playoffs.   The biggest underdog is Nebraska who is a 15.5-point underdog to #15 ranked Utah.

Of course, the most important Big Ten games are in the playoffs, but beyond that any SEC vs Big Ten matchup is huge for conference perceptions and from the standard bowls we have 3 games and the Big Ten is the underdog in all of them.

• Tennessee vs Illinois
• Vanderbilt vs Iowa
• Texas vs Michigan

Big Ten Game of the Week (Bucked Up LA Bowl): Washington -9.5 vs. Boise State (52.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

Washington comes in 8-4 overall and 5-4 in the Big Ten which was a 3-way tie for 7^th place. 

Boise State is in the Mountain West conference and finished tied for 1^st place with 4 teams with a 6-2 conference record and have an overall 9-4 record after beating UNLV 38-21 last week in the conference championship game.  It was their 3^rd straight conference championship.

ESPN SP+ has Washington #16 in the nation with the 14^th ranked overall defense which seems surprising while Boise State is 50^th and the difference in SP+ rating points is 10.3, which is just a little over the 9.5 point spread. Pro Football Focus has Washington with the 48^th toughest schedule in the nation while Boise State’s schedule is 65^th.

For the year Washington is 6-6 against the spread, while Boise State is 8-4-1 vs the spread including covering their last 3 games.

Washington is 4-2 all-time vs Boise State winning in 2023 56-19.

Football is all about Matchups and Motivation and this is magnified even more in bowl games.  On the motivation side, some teams are thrilled and fired up to be playing in bowl games while others are disappointed since they had higher aspirations. 

On the matchup side, player opt-outs are a major factor and any player projected as a high draft pick has a high chance not to risk playing in the game.  All these things make it much harder to predict bowl games vs regular seasons games so be careful in actually placing money on these games.

Cross conference matchups are very hard to evaluate due to the lack of common opponents, so I am not going to overcomplicate this game analysis.

Why Take the Points with Boise State:

1-Boise State’s stats show they are a really well balanced team on both offense and defense which is a good recipe for getting wins since it allows teams to flexibly adapt their game plans based on their opponents’ strengths and weaknesses.

On offense Boise State is 3^rd in Total Offense in the Mountain West at 433 yards/game, 5^th in conference passing at 244 yards/game and 3^rd in conference rushing at 188 yards/game. 

On defense Boise ranks 3^rd in Total Defense yielding 336 yards/game, and also are 3^rd in passing defense (172 ypg) and are 8^th in rushing defense yielding 165 yards/game.  The rushing defense is on the high side but nothing extravagant. 

Boise is 3^rd in conference scoring offense averaging 31.4 points/game and are 5^th in conference scoring defense at 23.0 points/game.  So their offense looks stronger than the defense but again they look like a well balanced team.

2-Boise State should be highly motivated to win since both teams are from the Northwest and for the team in the lower-level conference it tends to be a bigger deal to their program and players to beat a Power 4 conference team.

Why Washington Can Cover:

1-Boise State’s offense is stronger in their run game and that is a good matchup for Washington as their run defense is their defensive strength so that will help them contain the Broncos.

Washington is a strong 5^th in the Big Ten in Total Defense yielding only 311 yards/game and their run defense really shines ranking 4^th in the conference where they only give up 104 yards/game. 

Boise’s run game is strong ranking 3^rd in the conference (188 ypg) as already mentioned and running back Dylan Riley has 1091 yards on the season at 5.9 yards/carry plus their second running back Sire Gaines has 795 yards at 5.2/carry.  After Ashton Jeanty’s huge season last year their running back room is still good and very deep.

But if Washington’s run defense is so good in the Big Ten they should be able to handle a good Mountain West rushing attack.

2-For the most important position on the field which is quarterback Washington has a very big advantage in Demond Williams Jr. over Boise’s Maddux Madsen.

Demond Williams Jr. is a special talent at Washington and had a very good year in his first year as the full-time starter for the Huskies.   He completed 70% of his passes for 2,850 yards with 21 touchdowns and 8 interceptions and was 5^th of all Big Ten quarterbacks in quarterback rating according to ESPN. 

Williams also has an elite receiver to throw to in Denzel Boston who finished the year with 755 yards receiving and 10 TDs.  In addition, Williams has the type of running ability that can give defenses fits as he was the second leading rusher for the Huskies with 595 yards at 4.5.carry, which is really impressive given he was sacked 27 times for 185 yards in losses. 

Boise quarterback Maddux Madsen completed only 59.1% of his passes for 2,283 yards and 18 TDs with 7 interceptions.  In today’s game, that completion percentage is pretty terrible though Madsen ranked 3^rd in conference quarterback rating but the conference is not loaded with QB talent.

Madsen is not much of a runner with just 80 yards rushing after accounting for his 105 yards lost in sacks, so his real running yards amounted to 185 yards.

Again, huge advantage goes to Washington here.

3-Washington motivation should be high as they did not go into the year expecting to make the playoffs so I think they will be excited to play in this game and use it as a launching pad for next year’s team.

Big Jeff’s Call:   Both teams should be highly motivated to win this game, and travel is not an issue as the game is in Los Angeles, so the teams won’t be crossing multiple time zones.  Washington can put points on the board with their talented offense, and I love their QB advantage and ability to stop the Broncos strong run game.  I am taking the Huskies to win and cover.

Washington 35 Boise State 21.  Confidence: Medium

Big Jeff’s General Insights

• Notre Dame not making the playoffs
  • Some of my thoughts.  First, I think opinion on this is influenced by how many people hate Notre Dame.  I live in ATL, and moved here in 2003 and right away was hit over the head of how Southern football fans hate two teams the most: Ohio State probably #1 then Notre Dame #2.
  • I actually take that is a big compliment.  Often being hated means your highly relevant and a threat to Southern football superiority.
  • They also do hate how Notre Dame having their own TV contract makes it seem like they feel they are better than everyone.
  • I have never had an issue with ND being independent and wanting to leverage their power – that’s pretty much what everyone would do – Greg Sankey is not giving up any of his SEC power nor will Tony Pettitti give up any of his Big Ten power.
  • I think most people agree the final result of Miami being in before Notre Dame makes sense since they have the same record, relatively similar metrics and the head -to-head win should be the tie breaker.
  • The whole issue was the process.  Notre Dame being ranked above Miami from the initial rankings release – by a lot 10^th vs Miami 18^th which was probably way too much from the start.
  • To be ahead for all the polls, only to put Miami ahead the final week despite both teams not playing that week is insane.
  • If that was your team you would be PISSED with a Capital P – you would.  I know people hate ND but I feel for them. 
  • ANALOGY?  If your kid had a class that was far more important than all his others and where all semester, the teacher indicated he had an A in how he is being graded and then the last week you get the final grade and he got a C.  How would you feel?  You would be PISSED and in mode of F You, how can I hurt you so ND pulled out of the PopTart Bowl.
  • I HATE they did it, but also understand why they want to do something to make their discontent known.
  • The committee botched this whole process and at this point now almost NOBODY trusts the committee – to undue that is going to be almost impossible.
  • Plus the committee changes so the criteria they prioritize seems to change as well.
• Potential Playoff Changes
  • I would like to see changes and we need to take the people out of the process since way too many biases exist.
  • Make it based on a weighted statistical formula that is published explaining the rationale and how the calculations are made.
  • And this is how you can add in weight for those programs who schedule tougher non-con games giving them more credit win or lose cause right now you are punished far more for a loss than a win.
  • Then tweak each year – tweaking processes is what all great companies do and it should be no different for this.
  • Nothing will be perfect.  People still will complain but at least people know before what the criteria that matters most is making it fairer and more transparent.
  • You could have a small committee, but their role would be defining how to tweak the rating model each year.

What would 16 team field of 4-4-2-2-1+3 look like this year?

• What would this look like this season?  Out of curiosity mostly since I think there is too much opposition to this but it’s good to look at since it’s one form of what an Auto qualifier model could look like.
• I am excluding the 6 seeded Big Ten play-in games that Tony Pettitti had advocated as well to keep this more simple.
• I don’t love this model since I think the SEC and Big 10 will end up with more than other conferences anyway without it being forced to be 4 teams.
• This table shows the final Playoff Committee rankings this year
• As I usually do, I have it color coded based on conference. 
• The model proposed this summer by mostly the Big Ten but the SEC was considering is the 4,4,2,2,1+3 model
• The last column shows what teams get Auto bids. I show the last 2 teams in – Alabama and Texas

Let’s Look in more Detail On the 16 Teams

• We end up with 4 Big Ten teams who get auto qualifiers (name them), 2 Big 12 teams, 2 ACC teams, Notre Dame grabs one of the 3 at large bids due to finishing in the Top 16
• Tulane gets the 16 seed as the highest rated Group of 5 team who the committee ranked #20 and thus get the Group of 5 auto bid.
• Final tally by conference is:  SEC gets 6 teams, Big Ten 4, 2 each for Big 12 and ACC and then of course Notre Dame as an independent and a single Group of 5 team.As we can see, the SEC with 6 teams comes out pretty damn good in this scenario. 
• The Big Ten gets USC in but Michigan is out and I don’t have any issue with that – it feels fair since this Michigan team was not they type who would win a title.

Finally, this table shows what the playoff bracket would look like.

• Indiana gets Tulane in Round 1 at home, which makes sense for the 1 seed to get an pretty easy game.
• Ohio State gets a home game vs. Virginia and then Oregon hosts BYU.
• And how about USC visiting Georgia?  Sign me up. 
• Notice we get many of the same matchups like Oklahoma vs Bama in Round 1.
• A 16-team model in general is super compelling with 8 first round games on campus that will have electric atmospheres.