This week is the Big Ten football championship in Indianapolis where you can get in for $12. That is what you get when you have fan bases that could be looking at 3 or 4 road trips on their path to a potential national title. There is only so much money fans have to dish out so don’t expect a big Duck invasion this week to the Midwest. Before we get to my Big Ten Football Championship Game Pick though, let’s first quickly review the results from the last week of the regular season.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (after Week 14 and the end of the regular season)
- Last Week: 4-4 vs Spread; Lost “Lock City” pick
- Year-to-Date: 44-35-1 vs Spread; 4-7 in “Lock City” picks of week
Week 14 Pick Summary (8 games)
- WISCONSIN -2 Minnesota – Friday – The Pick: Minnesota Won
- IOWA -5.5 Nebraska – Friday – The Pick: Iowa Lost
- #2 OHIO STATE -21 at Michigan – The Pick: Michigan Won
- #23 Illinois -7.5 NORTHWESTERN – The Pick: Illinois Won
- #4 PENN STATE -24.5 Maryland – The Pick: Penn State Won
- MICHIGAN STATE -1.5 Rutgers – The Pick: Michigan State LOCK CITY pick of the Week Lost
- #10 INDIANA -29 Purdue – The Pick: Purdue Lost
- #1 OREGON -19 Washington – The Pick: Washington Lost
Big Jeff’s Week 14 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Ten Football Championship Game Pick
Odds by ESPNBET on 12/6/24
Oregon -3.5 vs. Penn State – Saturday 8 p.m. EST at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. (over/under: 50.5)
Background: Ohio State provided James Franklin and Penn State with a surprise early Christmas gift from their upset loss to Michigan at the Horseshoe. Penn State is 11-1 overall and 8-1 in the Big Ten with their only loss at home to Ohio State 20-13 who was #4 at the time. The Nittany Lions avoided the two other expected playoff teams Indiana and Oregon in the regular season and only have beaten one top 25 team in #21 Illinois this year. The Nits had good road wins at USC, Wisconsin and Minnesota but they need to beat Oregon to get their first true marquee win of the season.
Oregon meanwhile is the consensus #1 team at 12-0 and 9-0 in the Big Ten that included a key one-point victory over then #2 Ohio State on October 12. The Ducks won by double digits in all games except three (Boise State by 3, Ohio State by 1, and Wisconsin by 3).
The winner of this game will get a first-round playoff bye, and the loser should still get a first-round home playoff game, so both teams are in a good position for the playoffs. I expect due to travel distance and the expectations from Ducks fans that their team will make a long playoff run that could require spending for multiple games that the majority of fans will be for Penn State.
Statistically these two teams have lots of similarities on both offense and defense. Let’s start with the offense:
- Total Offense: Oregon #3 in Big Ten at 449 yards/game; Penn State #4 at 443 yards/game.
- Points: Oregon #3 in Big Ten at 35.2 points/game; Penn State #4 at 33.3 points/game
- Passing: Oregon #2 in Big Ten at 278 yards/game; Penn State #7 at 248 yards/game
- Rushing: Penn State #2 in Big Ten at 195 yards/game; Oregon #5 at 171 yards/game
Both teams have strong offenses with the biggest difference that Oregon with quarterback Dillon Gabriel at the helm and a strong receiver corp emphasizes the pass more and Gabriel has 24 touchdowns with just 6 interceptions while Penn State quarterback Drew Allar has 18 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. Allar is more limited due to Penn State’s biggest weakness of lacking a strong receiving group despite having difference making Tight End Tyler Warren who is their leading receiver by far with 81 catches for 978 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Both teams have strong rushing attacks with Jordan James Oregon’s workhorse running back who is the Big Ten’s third leading rusher at 1,166 yards and 5.7 yards/carry. James is a physical and highly reliable back. Penn State counters with their two headed monster of Nicholas Singleton (733 yards/6.1 ypc) and Kaytron Allen (698 yards/4.4 ypc).
Both teams excel in the important stat of third down conversions as well with Oregon ranking first in the Big Ten at 51.3% conversion rate while Penn State is third at 46.5%.
On defense the two school’s overall stats are also very closely aligned:
- Total Defense: Penn State #3 in Big Ten at 267 yards/game given up; Oregon #4 at 284 yards/game.
- Points Allowed: Penn State #2 in Big Ten at 14.0 points/game given up; Oregon #4 at 16.2 points/game
- Passing Defense: Penn State #3 in Big Ten at 170 yards/game given up; Oregon #4 at 172 yards/game
- Rushing Defense: Penn State #5 in Big Ten at 97 yards/game given up; Oregon #7 at 112 yards/game
Penn State’s defensive stats look better overall than Oregon but not dramatically so. Both teams are very disruptive due to the most talent resides in their defensive lines. PSU end Abdul Carter leads the Big Ten in sacks with 9.0, followed by Oregon end Matayo Uiagelelei who has 8.5 sacks good for second in the Big Ten and tied for 3rd is Ducks end Jordan Burch with 7.0 sacks.
Oregon and Penn State rank 1 and 2 in the Big Ten in sacks with 32 and 28 respectively. Same in tackles for loss but here Penn State is the Big Ten leader with 70 TFLs while Oregon is 2nd with 65 TFLs. In red zone defense, Penn State is 2nd in the Big Ten giving up scores 72.2% of the time while Oregon is 4th giving up scores at a 78.6% rate.
Why Oregon Can Cover: Oregon has a clear edge in the passing game due to their stronger receivers (Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart) and more experienced QB in Dillon Gabriel giving them the ability to both be more explosive and come back from a deficit, though they haven’t had to do that much this year. Gabriel also has more big game experience than PSU QB Drew Allar giving the Ducks the edge there.
Oregon has a very balanced offense making them very hard to defend. Penn State appears to be well balanced also but it’s somewhat deceptive since so much of their passing attack is reliant on one player in TE Tyler Warren. Other teams know what they need to try to take away from Penn State in Warren which is a big advantage I feel for the Ducks.
Dan Lanning is a rising superstar coach, but he still needs to prove he can consistently win the biggest games. He did against Ohio State but did not last year vs. Washington twice so the jury is still out. Meanwhile, James Franklin has a terrible 3-18 record against Top 5 teams including a loss to Ohio State earlier this year. You have to give the coaching edge therefore to Lanning and the Ducks.
Why take the points with Penn State: I expect Penn State will have many more fans in Indianapolis giving them a little bit of a home feel which is helpful. Offensive Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has shown great creativity with Penn State’s offense this year which has paid good dividends but did not do so well in their biggest game against Ohio State. I expect he learned a lot and will leverage that in his game plan for the Ducks.
Both quarterbacks know how to use their legs some, so that will be a big factor in keeping drives going on third downs. Plus, Penn State has the ability to use backup and mobile QB Beau Pribula to supplement Allar and add a different dimension to their offense.
Big Jeff’s Call: The similar stats of these teams make it hard to find clear differentiators. The big ones are Franklin’s lack of success in the biggest games and Penn State’s passing attack being overly reliant on throwing to Tyler Warren. My sense is Penn State will be less able to overcome turnovers vs. Oregon. And I think Oregon’s offensive line is maybe a little better. All these things add up to me taking Oregon by a touchdown and covering the 3.5 points. Oregon 27 Penn State 20.
