Periodically Big Jeff will give my “Hot Takes” on various Big Ten football topics. This week’s includes putting the 18 Big Ten teams into tiers. It’s less groups than you would think.
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Hot Takes (Nov. 6) – Big Jeff’s Football
Week 11 Big Ten Football Hot Takes
1. The best two teams in College Football are from the Big Ten.
Depending on what region of the country you are from, this may not be a hot take at all, like in the north in “Big Ten Country”. But in the SEC, this is definitely a hot take. And maybe sacrilegious. And further to the horror of SEC fans, the Big Ten has 4 of the top 5 AP ranked teams. #1 Oregon, #2 Ohio State, #4 Penn State and #5 Indiana. The Big Ten has no other teams in the Top 25, while the SEC has 9 in the Top 25
Of course, SEC fans would argue those 4 top 5 Big Ten teams are overrated and their success is mostly due to the mediocrity of the rest of the conference. They might be right, or they might be wrong, but the beauty of the 12-team playoffs is we are likely to find out. It looks like both conferences will get in 4 teams making the likelihood of several Big Ten vs SEC head-to-head matches a virtual certainty.
I am not going to get into a bunch of data points because teams play suce uneven schedules, but based on everything I have seen Oregon and Ohio State are the two best teams in the country. The cool thing is we will find out if my hot take is true in the playoffs but my reason for this hot take is pretty simple.
Oregon and Ohio State are the only two teams who across all their position groups does not have a significant weakness. All their groups are not great, but they all are at LEAST very good and with future NFL players across the board.
After Ohio State lost their starting left tackle Josh Simmons in the Oregon game, their offensive line struggled in the second half and struggled even more two weeks later against Nebraska. That line was now supposed to be their Achilles heel. But they moved personnel around and their line played well in a Top 5 road win at Penn State and then again, this past weekend vs. Purdue. Now Ohio State doesn’t have a single group considered a relative weakness.
For Oregon, they also struggled on their offensive line contributing to team struggles where they won their first two non-conference games by a combined 13 points. Since then, Oregon and that line has played really well and dominated every team winning by at least 21 points, with the exception of the 1-point victory over Ohio State. The Ducks have no obvious weakness.
All the other top teams have some significant weaknesses. I won’t go into each, but the two most high high profile teams are Georgia and Texas. For Georgia, the inability to consistently run the ball is an issue but even worse is Carson Beck’s decision making and turnovers that include 17 touchdowns but 12 interceptions in nine games. Plus, after losing TE Brock Bowers and WR Ladd McConkey it’s clear Georgia’s wide receivers this year lack the ability to really threaten defenses and help out Beck.
For Texas it would be worries about their offensive line, who got dominated by Georgia’s defensive front and their lack of a consistent running game that has suffered some key injuries and rank just 9th in the SEC at 164 yards/game. But again, we will get to test this hot take in the playoffs.
2. Indiana’s close win over Michigan is much, much better than getting another blowout victory.
Going into the Michigan game, Indiana was 9-0 and had won every game by at least 14 points. Only in the previous week against Michigan State had they been behind (10-0) or given up any points in the first quarter. They had only two games where the score was within 7 points early in the 4th quarter (vs. Maryland and at Northwestern).
If there is one thing I have learned through my years in following college football, is to have success in any type of playoff it is vital to be “battle tested” that is a combo of playing good teams but also having experience playing close games late into the 4th quarter and finding ways to win.
A great Big Ten example I can think of is 2006 Ohio State led by Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Troy Smith. This was in the BCS era where just the top two teams were chosen to play in the National Championship game. Ohio State cruised through the year with the only close game leading up to the final game vs. #2 ranked and also unbeaten Michigan, was a late season seven-point win at Illinois 17-10.
Ohio State went on to beat Michigan in the “Game of the Century” 42-39, marking that as really only the second game of the season that was not in doubt into the fourth quarter. The Buckeyes went 12-0 in the regular season and other than the Illinois and Michigan games, their average margin of victory was 30.1 points, with the closest game a 17-point win over Texas in week two (24-7).
Ohio State went into the BCS Championship game vs. the SEC Champion (12-1) Florida Gators as seven-point favorites and the consensus favorite by college football experts. But the Gators under Urban Meyer were much more battle tested winning 4 one-score SEC games during the season and had a defensive line nothing like any Big Ten team had to challenge Ohio State. The result was a shocking 41-14 Florida route where Troy Smith was sacked 5 times and completed only 4 of 14 passes for 35 yards and an interception.
This Indiana team going into Michigan had an average margin of victory of 32.9 points/game – very similar to Ohio State’s 30.1/game. And Michigan’s defensive line offered Indiana a test they had not faced yet. IU did well in the first half with 228 yards of offense but generated only 18 yards in the second half. More important though is the Hoosiers got to experience the pressure of playing within a one score game all the way to the end of the game. It’s expected their game against Ohio State in two weeks may end up the same.
If Indiana makes the 12-team playoff as expected, their experience gained from those late season close games as well as challenge of facing really talented teams and defenses like Michigan and Ohio State should pay dividends and increases their chances to win and advance.
3. The Big Ten has 18 teams but only 3 Tiers in 2024. How unusual is that?
The newly expanded Big Ten has 18 teams so you would think there would be many different tiers to place those teams in based on performance. But with the unbalanced schedule and based on results, there really are just 3 tiers this year.
- Tier 1: The Playoff Contenders (4): Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State (combined overall 36-2 record and 24-2 in Big Ten)
- Tier 2: The Middle of the Road Group (13): Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, Michigan, UCLA, Nebraska, Rutgers, Michigan State, Northwestern, USC and Maryland – all teams with at least 3 Big Ten losses and all with at least 4 overall losses except Illinois
- Tier 3: Historically Bad Group (1): Purdue (1-8 overall and 0-6 in Big Ten)
It really is that simple and distinct. In fact, the playoff contenders are all ranked in the Top 5 in the nation and have pretty much dominated all their competition except when they play each other. If you had said to start the year, the Big Ten would have 4 of the top 5, it would be very surprising. But most would think the fourth team would be Michigan, not Indiana who just beat the Wolverines on Saturday to move to 10-0 – the best record in school history.
The Middle of the Road Group has some really disappointing teams and none of them are currently in the AP Top 25. Defending National Champion Michigan heads that list at 5-5 overall and in need of getting one more win just to be bowl eligible, after starting the year ranked #9 . Second most disappointing is USC who started the year #23, and after an early impressive win over pre-season #13 LSU, stands at 4-5 with all five losses coming after leading in the 4th quarter.
Any given week, it feels like any of these teams could beat each other and all have significant weaknesses. All seven teams from the old Big Ten West are in this group as well so by definition most of these teams are offensively challenged with USC probably being the only exception.
It’s difficult to say if these teams show the Big Ten has strong depth or if the dominance of the Top 4 Playoff Contenders show the Big Ten is just overall weak. We might find out in bowl season, but that’s a big if since recent history has shown many of the best players will opt out of their bowl games. Regardless, this may go down as one of the strangest Big Ten seasons on record.
Finally, Tier 3 is Purdue who clearly is the worst team in the Big Ten and is having a season to forget that includes giving up the most points in their history in a 66-7 home loss to Notre Dame.
