Each week Big Jeff will give my number one game I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” Big Ten football pick of the week. Vegas is damn good at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise. But let’s leave the emotion out of the picks and see how we do.
Here are the candidates: (Odds by ESPNBet on 9/12/24)
College Football Big Ten Schedule – Week 3, 2024 – ESPN
- Alabama -16 at Wisconsin
- Michigan -23 vs. Arkansas State
- Illinois -18.5 vs. Central Michigan
- Oregon -16.5 at Oregon State
- Notre Dame -9.5 at Purdue
- Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M – No Line
- Minnesota -17.5 vs. Nevada
- Washington -4.5 vs. Washington State
- Iowa -21.5 vs. Troy
- Nebraska vs Northern Illinois – No Line
- Indiana -3 at UCLA
- Northwestern vs. Eastern Illinois – No Line
- Maryland -2,5 at Virginia
Notre Dame -9.5 at Purdue
The game that stood out to me most all week was Notre Dame who at one time was a 10-point favorite on the road vs. Purdue, but now that is down to 9.5 points. After two games the Irish are averaging just 321 yards/game and only160.5 yards/game passing, which speaks to the early struggles of transfer quarterback Riley Leonard who is 38-62 for 321 yards and 0 touchdowns with 2 interceptions.
Leonard does have 79 yards rushing but the Irish need to have an effective passing game to supplement their stingy defense. When you include FCS teams, Pro Football Focus has Leonard rated No. 229 of 276 quarterbacks for Total Offensive Grade. All this raises the question are the Irish going to score enough to cover a 9.5 point spread on the road? I like the Irish to win but not cover the 9.5 BUT … That is NOT my lock city game this week, since I like another game even better.
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Pick of the Week
Oregon -16.5 at Oregon State
Oregon entered the 2024 season as one of three teams most likely to win the National Championship along with Georgia and Ohio State. In fact, many had the Ducks as the favorite to win the Big Ten title in their first year in the conference. It’s certainly too soon to bail on Oregon since they are still 2-0, but in a game that is nicknamed “The Civil War” and started in 1894, which means emotions will be running high. Being a 16.5 favorite on the road seems very high to me.
Plus, Oregon State is still simmering from Oregon and the other Pac 12 teams bailing from the conference last year. Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel has looked just fine after transferring from Oklahoma to replace Bo Nix completing a whopping 84.3% of his passes with 311 yards/game passing and 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions.
But what is concerning is the Ducks offense has not won the line of scrimmage so far and Oregon’s 419.5 total yards/game ranks just 10th in the 18-team Big Ten and their rushing attack ranks only 16th in the Big Ten at 108 yards/game. And on defense the Ducks rank only 12th in the Big Ten at 293 yards/game allowed. Not what you expect from a title contender.
Meanwhile, Oregon State is 2-0 with two easy wins on the season (38-15 over Idaho State and 21-0 over San Diego State). The Beavers are averaging 465 yards/game and an impressive 299 yards/game rushing which puts them 5th nationally of all 134 FBS teams. That rushing game is a big reason I like the Beavers to cover the 16.5. I look for Oregon State to run the ball and keep the clock moving in keeping the game close as they seek the upset.
This spread would make more sense to me if the Ducks were at home but with this Civil War game in Corvallis, Oregon, I like the Beavers to cover the -16.5 in front of a rabid crowd.
