Each week Big Jeff will give his picks for all Big Ten conference games and the number one game I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” Big Ten football pick of the week. Vegas is great at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise. But let’s leave the emotion out of the picks and see how we do.
Here are the candidates: (Odds by ESPNBET on 9/19/24)
College Football Big Ten Schedule – Week 4, 2024 – ESPN
Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Week 4
Big Ten Conference Games (4 games)
#11 USC -5.5 at #18 MICHIGAN
Despite the offensive struggles where Michigan ranks second to last (17th) in the Big Ten in yards per game at 329 yards/game and deal last in passing at 153 yards/game.
No wonder they are making the quarterback switch from Daivs Warren to Alex Orji. Sheronne Moore had to make this switch to try to light a fire under the Wolverines, but this team has too much talent and leadership not to have a good “get right” game which is what I expect when USC visits this week.
Meanwhile, USC is not surprisingly strong offensively ranking 3rd in the Big Ten at 495 yards/game and 4th in scoring at 37.5 points/game. To beat the bluebloods of the conference though, the Trojans will need to see a better rushing attack where they rank just 12th in the conference at 154 yards/game.
More importantly on defense USC is seeing much better results under new Offensive Coordinator D’Anton Lynn giving up just 10 points/game, but also looking much more physical with better tackling fundamentals. Something that has been a major issue for the Trojans the past couple years.
Expect Michigan to try playing some Old School physical and ball possession football to keep the Trojan offense and QB Miller Moss off the field as much as possible. In other words, make it seem like USC is playing Utah who the Trojans have struggled with in the past.
Big Jeffs Call: Michigan plays much better and covers the line but loses in a tight one. USC 24 Michigan 21
#22 NEBRASKA -7.5 vs. #24 Illinois
Before the season, almost nobody had this Friday night tussle as a game of two ranked teams. But now here we are. The Huskers have not beat a ranked team since 2016 – if my Indiana math is right that is 8 years! Add to it Husker coach Matt Rhule has a 2-19 record vs ranked teams. But Nebraska fans are becoming believers and are fired up with many local high school games being moved to different dates.
Statistically, these teams are really close. On offense, Nebraska ranks 9th in the Big Ten at 421 yards/game and Illinois is 12th at 379 yards/game. Nebraska is a little more productive in both passing and rushing.
On defense, Nebraska is 5th in the Big Ten at allowing just 255 yards/game, while the Illini rank 8th at 277 yards/game given up. But Nebraska appears to be tougher against the run giving up just 70 yards/game while the Illini are giving up 126 yards/game. Of course, the Huskers benefited from playing rushing challenged Colorado in week 2.
Big Jeff’s Call: I think this one stays tight until the second half, when the Nebraska home crowd carries the Huskers to cover the 7 points. Nebraska 27 Illinois 17
WASHINGTON -10.5 vs. Northwestern
The Huskies are coming off a very disappointing loss vs. their archrivals in the Apple Cup. Northwestern is 2-1 having lost to Duke in week 2 and this is their first road game.
Washington is significantly better offensively led by veteran senior quarterback Will Rogers and are 5th in the Big Ten at 478 yards/game, and 4th in passing at 307 yards/game. For the year Rogers is completing 77% of his passes with 825 yards passing and 6 touchdowns with 0 interceptions.
Northwestern, meanwhile, is just 14th in the Big Ten at 355 yards/game, don’t seem to excel in either rushing or passing and in fact had to make a quarterback change so Jack Lausch will be making just his second start. Offense has been a problem for several years for the Wildcats and it looks like that has not changed.
Big Jeff’s Call: I think the Huskies are going to play like an angry team after last week’s loss and the Wildcats just don’t have enough firepower. Take the Huskies and the points. In fact, make this one my LOCK CITY PICK OF THE WEEK. Washington 31 Northwestern 17
Iowa -2.5 at MINNESOTA
Long live the Big Ten West! Because this game is going to be the epitome of that super exciting division. On offense, the reality is Iowa is significantly improved ranking 10th with 419 yards/game and but it’s not from much better passing where they rank second to last (#17) at 176 yards/game. The Hawkeyes are second in the Big Ten at 243 yards/game and they have the nation’s leading rusher in Junior Kaleb Johnson who has 479 yards in 3 games and averages 7.9 yards/carry.
Meanwhile the Gophers have new transfer quarterback from New Hampshire Max Brosmer still adapting to the FCS level. Brosmer is averaging 209 yards/game but has only 3 touchdowns and 1 interception across 3 games. On offense Minnesota ranks 3rd to last (16th) in the Big Ten at just 351 yards/game and surprisingly are second to last (17th) in rushing at 130 yards/game and only 3.8 yards/carry.
Big Jeff’s Call: The lack of a run game for Minnesota is alarming. Brosmer coming in at QB was meant to supplement a strong run game with an effective passing game but not have to carry the load. Iowa appears to be the more complete team, so I take the Hawkeyes to cover. Iowa 20 Minnesota 17
Non-Conference Games (8)
- OHIO STATE -40 vs. Marshall
- INDIANA -28.5 vs. Charlotte
- MARYLAND -17.5 vs. Villanova
- PENN STATE -49 vs. Kent State
- LSU -24 vs. UCLA
- VIRGINIA TECH -3.5 vs. Rutgers
- BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 vs. Michigan State
- OREGON STATE -4.5 vs. Purdue
Week 3 Big Ten Football Top Storylines – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)
