It’s 12-team playoff time and the Big Ten has four teams in it, which is probably as good as they could have hoped for when the season started. This is very much uncharted waters. In the first round, the Big Ten has two home games and the third is in South Bend, Indiana so all three will be in cold weather locations. The weather will certainly be part of all the storylines. Before getting into my picks for the three games here is a brief review of year-to-date results.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (after Big Ten Championship)
- Last Week: 1-0 vs Spread
- Year-to-Date: 45-35-1 vs Spread; 4-7 in “Lock City” picks of week
Big Ten Championship Pick
- Oregon -3.5 vs. Penn State (In Indianapolis) – The Pick: Oregon Won (Final: Oregon 45 Penn State 37)
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Championship Game Pick – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Hot Takes (Dec 13) – End of Regular Season Edition – Big Jeff’s Football
Here are the Big Ten games for Playoffs Round 1: (Odds by ESPNBET on 12/17/24).
Big Ten Football Playoff Round 1 Picks
Big Ten Games (3)
- #7 NOTRE DAME -7 vs. #10 Indiana (South Bend, IN) – Friday Night – The Pick: Indiana
- #8 OHIO STATE -7 vs. #9 Tennessee – The Pick: Tennessee
- #6 PENN STATE -8.5 vs. #11 SMU – The Pick: Penn State
#7 NOTRE DAME -7 vs. #10 Indiana (South Bend, IN) – Friday Night
With the playoffs expanded to 12 teams this year, Notre Dame expected to be here. The Irish kicked off the season with a huge road win over #20 Texas A&M. Then in week two they shockingly lost to MAC conference team Northern Illinois 16-14, who would go on to finish 7-5 on the season. They went from a virtual lock to make the playoff to many thinking they couldn’t recover from that bad loss. Since then, the Irish have won 10 in a row all by 14 points or more except for a 31-24 win over Louisville.
Indiana meanwhile, under new Coach Curt Cignetti who has won every national coach of the year award this year, is not just the Cinderella story of the year but quite possibly of all time in college football. The Hoosiers are 11-1 with their only blemish a 38-15 loss at Ohio State in the second to last game of the year. Other than a 5-point win over Michigan, they have been dominant in their wins with all their other victories by at least 14 points or more.
Indiana certainly has taken advantage of an easier schedule missing both Oregon and Penn State, but their statistical dominance led them to making the playoffs without much debate once most of the SEC powers had their third losses.
Both teams have a relatively weak strength of schedule and there has been much discussion about this. According to ESPN’s metric (link below), Notre Dame’s strength of schedule ranks 61st while Indiana’s ranks 67th.
2024 Resume College Football Power Index – ESPN
Let’s compare how these team’s rank statistically nationally.
- Total Offense: Indiana 439 yards per game (ypg) – 25th in Nation (4th in Big Ten); Notre Dame 421 ypg – 40th in Nation
- Rushing Offense: Indiana 174 ypg – 52nd in nation (4th in Big Ten); Notre Dame 225 ypg – 10th in Nation
- Passing Offense: Indiana 265 ypg – 29th in Nation (4th in Big Ten); Notre Dame 196 ypg – 101st in Nation
- Points Scored: Indiana 43.3 points/game – 2nd in Nation (1st in Big Ten); Notre Dame 39.8 points/game – 3rd in Nation
- Total Defense: Indiana 245 yards per game (ypg) – 2nd in Nation (2nd in Big Ten); Notre Dame 297 ypg – 8th in Nation
- Rushing Defense: Indiana 71 ypg – 1st in Nation (1st in Big Ten); Notre Dame 139 ypg – 51st in Nation
- Passing Defense: Indiana 174 ypg – 9th in Nation (3rd in Big Ten); Notre Dame 158 ypg – 3rd in Nation
- Scoring Defense: Indiana 14.7 points/game – 6th in Nation (2nd in Big Ten); Notre Dame 13.6 points/game – 3rd in Nation
Why Notre Dame Can Cover: It’s boring to say, but this game is going to be won by the team who wins in the trenches. Both teams are where they are because of really good play on both the offensive and defensive lines. But I think an advantage for Notre Dame is they have more depth on their defensive front than Indiana. And I expect Notre Dame to stay committed to the run despite how that is going right at Indiana’s biggest team strength – their #1 rated rushing defense. But IU plays their defensive line starters a lot due to lack of depth so the Irish run game will start to pay big dividends in the second half.
On the other side of the ball, the two times Indiana faced really talented defensive lines against Michigan and Ohio State their offensive line struggled. Against Michigan, IU had just 246 total yards of offense including 40 yards rushing and against Ohio State they had only 153 total yards. While Notre Dame does not have the defensive line talent that Michigan and Ohio State does, they come pretty close and this matchup could be the biggest reason why the Irish win and cover.
I would also give the edge to the Irish in playing in big games and big game environments. For most of the teams Notre Dame plays, it is their biggest game of the year and the one they want to win the most, so the Irish are used to always getting the other team’s best shot. This makes them more battle tested than Indiana and used to playing in these situations.
Why take the points with Indiana: Defense has been most consistent aspect of Indiana and their rushing defense is ranked the best in the nation. This is magnified some by the fact Indiana has blown out so many teams forcing them to throw a lot in the second half. But even against good running teams the Hoosiers have held up well. They held Michigan to 69 total yards and 2.0 yards/carry. They held Ohio State to 115 total rushing yards at 4.0 yards/carry but that was made to look better by a late 4Q Treveyon Henderson carry for 39 yards.
I think Indiana is equipped to contain the Irish rushing game forcing quarterback Riley Leonard to make some key passing plays. If they can’t contain the Notre Dame run game, then it’s going to be a long day for Indiana. And key to that is keeping the defense off the field by having success running the ball themselves. Notre Dame’s run defense is just 51st in the nation, though they have played more run-oriented teams like Army, Navy and Georgia Tech.
Indiana also should have success throwing the ball where they rank 29th in the nation and quarterback Kurtis Roarke is from Canada and had no issues throwing the ball all over the field in really cold and bad conditions in the last game against Purdue (23-31 for 349 yards and 6 TDs). If the offensive line gives Roarke time, I expect IU can generate some big plays which they have been able to do all season.
An X factor in Indiana’s favor also is Notre Dame’s special teams are not so special when it comes to field goals. Notre Dame ranks dead last in the nation in Field Goal percentage converting only 44% of the time on 8 FGs in 18 attempts. IU meanwhile is 14th in the nation converting 90% of their field goal attempts (9 of 10). In a close game, special teams can be the difference.
Finally, I give Curt Cignetti and his staff an edge based on their strong experience in playoff formats they experienced at James Madison, Elon and Indiana University Pennsylvania.
Big Jeffs Call: Both teams have had relatively easy schedules, so I don’t think either are as battle tested as say a Tennessee or Ohio State. I expect Indiana to play more aggressively as the underdog and because they really have nothing to lose at the end of this magical season. All that will keep it close. It’s going to come down to the trenches and how the Indiana offensive line holds up vs what I expect to be an aggressive Irish front seven based on what both Michigan and Ohio State did to IU.
Then the second big factor is Notre Dame will continue to pound IU with the run game so can they withstand that even in the second half as depth becomes more of a factor? I see Indiana giving the Irish all they can handle but the Irish run game in the 4th quarter starts to pay big dividends allowing Notre Dame to pull out the close win, but Indiana covers. Notre Dame 27 Indiana 23.
#8 OHIO STATE -7 vs. #9 Tennessee
All college football fans know the story. This year was supposed to be “National Title or Bust” for Ohio State and Ryan Day this year. I never bought into that story line at all since it’s just damn hard to win a National Title. Things can happen during a season to derail any team, and for Ohio State that has been from losing projected first round Left Tackle Josh Simmons in the early Oregon game and then later in the season also losing All-American transfer Center Seth McLaughlin.
The OSU line was already thin to start the year, and these two injuries have been devastating for Ohio State. They have had to shuffle their starting line a couple times hampering their ability to run the ball late in the season despite two great running backs in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. This ties very strongly to this Tennessee matchup since many believe the Volunteers and their great defensive front was the worst possible matchup of the 12 playoff teams for Ohio State.
By far, the expected biggest predictor of who will win this game is if the Ohio State offensive line can hold up vs. the Tennessee defensive line. Beyond that is the pressure Ryan Day and his staff currently face. Though the Natty or Bust storyline may have been overdone, the need to beat Michigan this year was not, and Ohio State fans are irate over the poor offensive game plan and lack of adjustments they saw that led to the Michigan loss. The heat is on both Ryan Day and Offensive Coordinator Chip Kelly in this game to right some of the wrongs from the Michigan debacle. Some believe Day’s job might even depend on it.
Tennessee meanwhile has the exact same record as Ohio State at 10-2 with conference losses at Arkansas 19-14 and at Georgia 31-17. The best wins for Tennessee are 24-17 vs. Alabama and probably 23-17 vs. Florida but their schedule actually was not that tough since they did not play top SEC teams like Texas, South Carolina, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri. In fact, of the Top 9 SEC teams all of whom had 5-3 records or better, they only played two of them in Bama and Georgia. The combined SEC records of the SEC teams they played was 24-40.
Tennessee’s overall strength of schedule ranks 28th and Ohio State’s is 29th. Both teams have had similar but not too difficult overall schedules. And Tennessee finished 2-2 in road games.
Let’s compare how these team’s rank statistically nationally.
- Total Offense: Ohio State 424 yards per game (ypg) – 36th in Nation (5th in Big Ten); Tennessee 463 ypg – 8th in Nation
- Rushing Offense: Ohio State 169 ypg – 59th in nation (6th in Big Ten); Tennessee 231 ypg – 9th in Nation
- Passing Offense: Ohio State 254 ypg – 38th in Nation (5th in Big Ten); Tennessee 231 ypg – 62nd in Nation
- Points Scored: Ohio State 35.5 points/game – 18th in Nation (3rd in Big Ten); Tennessee 37.3 points/game – 8th in Nation
- Total Defense: Ohio State 241 yards per game (ypg) – 1st in Nation (1st in Big Ten); Tennessee 278 ypg – 4th in Nation
- Rushing Defense: Ohio State 97 ypg – 7th in Nation (4th in Big Ten); Tennessee 99 ypg – 8th in Nation
- Passing Defense: Ohio State 144 ypg – 2nd in Nation (1st in Big Ten); Tennessee 179 ypg – 17th in Nation
- Scoring Defense: Ohio State 10.9 points/game – 1st in Nation (1st in Big Ten); Tennessee 13.9 points/game – 4th in Nation
Why Ohio State Can Cover: Lost in all the talk of Ryan Day and Ohio State’s big upset loss to Michigan, their one-point loss to Oregon and their very real offensive line issues is how great this defense is. Other than the Oregon loss in a tough night road environment, they have been lights out and are really good across all three levels. The only relative weakness is their cornerbacks who have struggled at times but still have big play ability. They have the best safety in the country in First Team All-American Caleb Downs, have a talented and deep line, and athletic and experienced linebackers.
It’s going to be hard for Tennesse to score on this unit. The Volunteers scored 17 points against probably the two best and most talented defenses they faced in Alabama and Georgia. The vols have a great run game but an inexperienced first year quarterback in Nico Iamaeava who will be playing in a raucous road environment – especially if Ohio State can build a lead. The chances are good Ohio State can hold this team to 20 or fewer points.
Then it turns to the Ohio State offense who completely laid an egg against Michigan scoring just 10 points with only 252 yards of total offense. After performing very strong early in the year, Ohio State has lost it’s offensive mojo and a lot of it has to do with that banged up offensive line impacting mostly their ability to run the ball. For the season beyond Michigan (14th best defense in nation based on yards/game), the lowest they scored was 20 points against Penn State (6th best defense), 21 against Nebraska (18th best defense), 31 against Oregon (10th best defense) and 38 against Indiana (2nd best defense).
If Ohio State can even somewhat return to the offensive production from earlier in the year, they should score in the 20’s and win the game and if they score in the high 20’s they should cover the 7 points.
Getting off to a good start will be very important to get the crowd behind them and over their likely Michigan hangover. Ryan Day and OC Chip Kelly need to come out with an aggressive mindset and a more creative gameplan to combat Tennessee’s strong defensive front and take advantage of the Buckeyes elite wideouts including unicorn Jeremiah Smith.
Why take the points with Tennessee: The pressure is mostly on Ohio State and Ryan Day. Tennessee should play free and loose and aggressive, which in big games is always better. Many think Tennessee is the worst matchup for Ohio State because Tennessee’s likely best strength in their great defensive line is up against Ohio State’s biggest weakness which is their injury depleted offensive line. The obvious here is if the Vols defensive line dominates upfront not only should they cover the spread, but they likely win the game.
The other potential advantage is if Tennessee stays committed to the run game, which is ranked 9th in the nation behind 1,485-yard and SEC leading rusher Dylan Sampson, could have success and especially in the second half against the Buckeyes, keeping the game close which would put even more pressure on Ohio State.
Another X factor is how Ohio State quarterback Will Howard despite playing well all year, has had one or two critical mistakes in 3 of their 4 biggest games. Against Oregon it was his lack of clock awareness as OSU ran out of time on the last play when Howard took off on a run, versus Penn State where he threw a pick six and also fumbled through the end zone and then vs. Michigan where he threw two critical interceptions. Especially because Tennessee will be putting a lot of pressure on Howard, there is a good chance he will have a couple critical mistakes against the Vols.
Big Jeff’s Call: I see this as a low scoring game, but the Ohio State defense is going to shine the most. The OSU offensive line does enough against the Vol front to give Will Howard just enough time to get the ball to his talented receiver group. Howard is going to have one bad pick but play well overall. The Buckeyes win in a close one, but Tennessee covers. Ohio State 24 Tennessee 20.
#6 PENN STATE -8.5 vs. #11 SMU
It’s time for James Franklin to break through. He is 3-18 against Top 25 teams at Penn State and SMU is the 11 seed but they are ranked #10 in the AP poll. Penn State got fortunate in how the playoff seeding went and are looking at a winnable home game vs. SMU first and then a potential second round matchup vs. Boise State where they should be a double-digit favorite.
Penn State has an experienced quarterback, a good running game with two talented running backs and a great defense ranked 6th in the nation in total yards. All the ingredients are there for the Nittany Lions to make a playoff run.
Meanwhile, SMU is in their first year in the ACC and they went 11-1 overall and 8-0 in the ACC before losing on a last second field goal in the ACC Championship game to Clemson 34-31. SMU has been a great story this year and probably only behind the surprise performances of Indiana and Arizona State.
Let’s compare how these team’s rank statistically nationally.
- Total Offense: Penn State 449 yards per game (ypg) – 15th in Nation (2nd in Big Ten); SMU 443 ypg – 21st in Nation
- Rushing Offense: Penn State 202 ypg – 19th in nation (1st in Big Ten); SMU 176 ypg – 50th in Nation
- Passing Offense: Penn State 247 ypg – 41st in Nation (7th in Big Ten); SMU 267 ypg – 26th in Nation
- Points Scored: Penn State 33.6 points/game – 4th in Nation (1st in Big Ten); SMU 38.5. points/game – 6th in Nation
- Total Defense: Penn State 282 yards per game (ypg) – 3rd in Nation (3rd in Big Ten); SMU 326 ypg – 28th in Nation
- Rushing Defense: Penn State 104 ypg – 9th in Nation (5th in Big Ten); SMU 93 ypg – 4th in Nation
- Passing Defense: Penn State 179 ypg – 7th in Nation (3rd in Big Ten); SMU 233 ypg – 90th in Nation
- Scoring Defense: Penn State 16.4 points/game – 3rd in Nation (2nd in Big Ten); SMU 20.8 points/game – 28th in Nation
Why Penn State Can Cover: Balance. This team is good across the board. The only real weakness is their average wide receiver core but that is mitigated by having the probable best Tight End in college football in Tyler Warren. Penn State can hurt you both with the run where they are 19th in the nation behind running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and with the pass ranking 41st. PSU is 15th in total offense. A well-balanced offense is really hard to defend.
Penn State is also strong on defense ranking 3rd in yards per game and also 3rd in points given up at 16.4 points/game. They are 9th in the nation in rushing defense and 7th in passing defense. PSU may also have the best pass rushing defensive end in Abdul Carter. There is no big weakness in the Penn State defense making them equipped to contain SMU’s strong offense.
Also, Penn State’s home environment is very difficult to play in and the crowd noise often causes issues for other team’s offenses and quarterback.
Why take the points with SMU: SMU has the 4th best rushing defense in the nation giving up just 93 yards per game. A winning formula for the Mustangs is to contain the Penn State running game making them more one-dimensional and have to rely on the pass with their shaky receiving core. Key to this will be SMU having an answer for all-world Tight End Tyler Warren who can single handedly ruin a defensive game plan.
On offense, SMU has a dynamic quarterback in Kevin Jennings (3,050 yards passing; 379 yards rushing @ 4.1 yards/carry) and Penn State has not faced any quarterback as mobile as him this year which can help mitigate Penn State’s strength up front. Jennings having a great game is part of the formula needed for SMU to cover.
Also, SMU has had an amazing year no matter what happens, and all the pressure is on the favorite in Penn State and James Franklin.
Big Jeff’s Call: I must admit. I have not seen SMU play this year due to my focus on watching mostly Big Ten games, so I have the least feel for this game. Despite losing to Oregon in the Big Ten title game, I think that performance still gave Penn State more confidence. It will be very cold in Happy Valley and that environment will be a big advantage. Drew Allar continues to improve throughout the year, so I look for Penn State to pull away in the 4th quarter for the cover in a fairly high scoring game. Penn State 34 SMU 24.
