Traditionally in college football, recruiting has been the best predictor of success for teams. In today’s game, the transfer portal has changed that dynamic some though. There are examples of team’s achieving great one season success leveraging the portal. Florida State in 2023 is one great example as they went undefeated (12-0) during the season, but they learned success relying on the portal can be fleeting as FSU struggled mightily in the 2024 season going 2-10.
Specific to the Big Ten, 2024 Indiana is another example where Curt Cignetti leveraged taking many of his former James Madison players and molding them into a team that went 11-1 overall in the regular season and made the 12-team playoff field.
But don’t be fooled here. The best coaches know to ensure long-term success and program stability you still need to recruit the traditional way at a high level. In the Big Ten, looking at historical recruiting should help us better predict future team success, but it also allows us to make better insights on the programs, their coaches and what are realistic expectations moving forward for each team.
In this article I look at 10-years of historical recruiting data for all Big Ten schools, and put them into six distinct categories, and make insights from the data about every team. I am using the 247 Sports Composite rankings here which they state is an aggregation of rankings from “247Sports, Rivals, ESPN, and others”. Think of the composite rankings as a way to “average out” the rankings across multiple services. The two tables below provide rankings within the Big Ten and then nationally.
Grading Big Ten Football Coaches Entering 2025: What do the numbers say? – Big Jeff’s Football
Special Note: The four new Pac 12 teams that came into the Big Ten in 2024 are in BOLD in the Tables below and all their past 10-year recruiting rankings have been included in the data as if they have been in the Big Ten all 10 years. There are currently 134 Division One programs.
Table 1: 247 Sports 10-Year Big Ten Football Recruiting Rankings
247 Sports Composite Rankings Sorted by 5-Year Big Ten Average Rank
Table 2: 247 Sports 10-Year National Recruiting Rankings
247 Sports Composite Rankings Sorted by 5-Year National Average Rank
I) Elite Recruiters: Ohio State, Oregon
Ohio State
Urban Meyer changed the game in the Big Ten both on the field and in recruiting when he took over Ohio State in 2012. The Buckeyes were always very good in recruiting, but Meyer made them elite and since Ryan Day took over in 2019, they have remained elite and easily the best recruiters in the Big Ten.
Over the past ten years Ohio State has had the #1 class in the Big Ten 8 of 10 years, only finishing 4th in 2019 and 2nd in 2024. Their average Big Ten 10-year recruiting finish is a conference best 1.4 ranking. It should be no surprise then the Buckeyes lead the Big Ten with a 5-year winning percentage of 86%.
From a national perspective, Ohio State is consistently in the Top 5 with 9 of the past 10 years ranking at least 5th best in the nation or better, with 2019 at a ranking of 14th as the only outlier. Recruiting experts know the Buckeyes are one of the “big three” of recruiting along with the SEC’s Alabama and Georgia.
Alabama leads the nation with a 5-year average recruiting rank of 1.8, followed by Georgia with 3.2 and Ohio State comes in a strong third at an average rank of 3.8. These three are true national players who often go head-to-head for the top players and pull interest from the best players in any state. And it’s the reason why all three are NFL factories who have had great results on the field as well.
Oregon
With the addition of Oregon to the Big Ten in 2024, the Ducks and Dan Lanning have emerged as potential rivals to Ohio State’s Big Ten recruiting supremacy and can be classified as the second Big Ten “Elite Recruiting” program.
Even going back to Mario Cristobal’s Oregon tenure (2018-2021) that included the #1 rated 2019 Big Ten class, Oregon has consistently ranked among the Top 3 recruiters in the Big Ten. Oregon’s average 5-year Big Ten recruiting rank is 2.4, which is easily second best in the conference. This makes it not surprising that their overall 5-year winning percentage is 81%, good for third best in the conference.
Looking at the National Rankings from Table 2 makes it even more clear the positive impact Mario Cristobal had with two Top 10 finishes in his five years. And then Dan Lanning has taken Oregon to a whole other level with all three of his years at Oregon being in the Top 10 in recruiting and in the last two years they were Top 5 with a 3rd ranking finish in 2024 and 5th in 2025.
Their five-year national average is a rank of 7.2. Strong NIL funding backed by their relationship with Nike has played a major role here for sure, but Lanning and his staff are clearly excellent in recruiting and moving forward Oregon has a chance to challenge the “Big 3” of Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State as the kings of college football recruiting.
II) Top 20 Recruiters: Michigan, Penn State
Michigan
Though they are close with Penn State, Michigan has been the third best historical Big Ten recruiter with a Big Ten average 5-year rank of 3.8 (and 10-year avg. of 3.5). In the Big Ten over the last 10 years, Michigan has fallen outside a Top 5 recruiting ranking only once in 2018 with a 7 ranking. They have been consistent but not elite, so their 2nd best Big Ten 5-year winning percentage of 81% is impressive and shows they have been very good at player development.
From a national perspective looking at Table 2, Michigan is a consistent Top 20 recruiter falling outside the Top 20 only once in 2018 (22nd rating) over the past 10 years. Michigan finished Top 10 or better in 6 of the last 10 years as well. Their national 5-year average rank is 12.2, which is third best in the Big Ten.
Even more promising for the Wolverines is they finished at a 10-year high of a #6 national recruiting rank with their 2025 class under first year coach Sherrone Moore, who should continue to see strong benefits going forward from the 2023 National Championship under Jim Harbaugh. Michigan’s title and recent success including a four-game winning streak over rival Ohio State appears to have allowed Michigan to be a stronger presence with top ranked national recruits.
Penn State
Very close but slightly behind Michigan is James Franklin’s Penn State team who has been the 4th best recruiting program in the Big Ten. Over the last 10 years, Penn State has finished outside the Top 5 in Big Ten recruiting rankings just twice with a 6th place finish in 2016 and 8th place in 2021.
Penn State’s 5-year Big Ten recruiting average rank is 4.4, which also aligns pretty well with their on-field performance which also ranks 4th in the conference at a 5-year win rate of 70%. You could argue Penn State maybe should have a little better win rate with that level of recruiting, but their challenge has been being in the Big Ten East in the past with the need to play Ohio State and Michigan each year who James Franklin has a 4-17 combined record against.
Nationally (see Table 2) Penn State is consistently Top 20 with the only year outside of that being a 21 national ranking in 2021. PSU has just 2 of 10 years in the Top 10 (#6 in both 2018 and 2022) and their 5-year national average is 14.2.
This very good but not elite level of national recruiting also aligns with Penn State’s reputation as a program that consistently beats teams they are supposed to but typically loses vs Top 5 and Top 10 teams. It is why they are one of the teams who will most benefit from the expansion to the 12-team playoff field as we saw happen in the 2024 season.
I also feel these figures support why often the Nittany Lions talent level allows them to compete well overall vs Top 5 teams like Ohio State, but don’t have enough elite playmakers like those schools to win those games. To more consistently challenge for national championships, Penn State likely needs to more frequently get Top 10 recruiting classes.
III) Underperformers (Records Underperform Recruiting): USC, Nebraska, Maryland
Now we go into our third category where these team’s ability to win has lagged their recruiting rankings. I am calling these “Underperformers”.
USC
USC is the first school in the “Underperformer” category, since they have a 5-year Big Ten average recruiting rank of 6.2, good for 5th overall in the Big Ten, and a 5-year National average rank of 23.2, and yet their 5-year win percentage is only 60%. Being Top 25 in recruiting but only winning 6 of 10 football games is a disconnect. There could be multiple reasons here for USC that I am not going to do in depth on, but the biggest culprit is likely their lack of enough talent and success on defense.
In Big Ten recruiting, USC has finished in the Top 5 in 7 of the last 10 years but have suffered two bad classes in both 2020 (16th) and 2022 (17th), the latter likely tied to the transition from six-year USC coach Clay Helton to Lincoln Riley.
Nationally USC has finished 8 of 10 years in the Top 20 but again have been hurt by the 2020 class that ranked 59th and the 2022 class that was 70th. Usually, a class ranked this low for a good recruiting school like USC means they had very few recruits which is never a good thing.
Riley’s three classes have ranked 8, 17 and 14 nationally which is good but not great. USC has made strong recent changes to their admin staffing to better focus on recruiting and their 2026 class is off to a great start, so I expect the Trojans to more likely be a Top 10 level recruiting program in the future.
Nebraska
Nebraska is our second recruiting “Underperformer”, ranking 6th best in Big Ten recruiting and with a 5-year Big Ten recruiting average of 7.4, a 5-year national average of 25.2, but a dismal 5-year winning percentage of 39%. Only one time in the past 10-years has Nebraska not been in the Top 10 in Big Ten recruiting.
This makes Nebraska easily the biggest Underperformer relative to their recruiting in the Big Ten. I could write an entire article on why this is the case but feel there are two big culprits. One must be the lack of sufficient player development and the second is Nebraska’s abysmal record in one score games (5-22) under prior coach Scott Frost.
Nationally Nebraska has been super consistent with 9 of the past 10 years ranking 26th or better in national recruiting, with 2022 the only outlier at a 41 ranking. Results have been even better in the two years under Matt Rhule with rankings of 18th and 22nd. There is simply no excuse for the Huskers not winning closer to a 66% overall rate, which would be more like 8-4 seasons based on this recruiting.
Maryland
The final of our three recruiting “Underachievers” is Mike Locksley’s Maryland team who have been 7th in Big Ten recruiting with a 5-year average of 8.4 and a National recruiting 5-year average of 29.6, yet their 52% five-year overall winning percentage is very disappointing. Maryland has finished in the Top 10 in Big Ten recruiting 8 of 10 years.
Nationally in the six years under Locksley, Maryland has been very consistent ranging anywhere from 31st in 2020 to a best 18th rank in 2021. The Terps most recent 2025 class finished an impressive 25th. All this supports Locksley’s (and his staff’s) perception of being really good recruiters but poor overall in both talent development and game planning and coaching.
Also, there has always been the sense Maryland should be much better based on the high school talent in the Baltimore, Washington and Northern Virginia area. Now that Maryland is no longer in the rugged Big Ten East, I feel it’s fair to say we will learn in the next year or two if Locksley can win more consistently to retain his job.
IV) Overperformers (Records Overperform Recruiting): Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, UCLA
Our fourth category is our biggest with 5 teams who have overperformed on the field vs. their recruiting success.
Iowa
First up is our biggest overperformer (by far) the Iowa Hawkeyes led by 26-year head coach Kirt Ferentz. The Hawkeyes Big Ten 5-year average recruiting rank of 9.6 is 8th best in the Big Ten, and their national 5-year average rank is a solid 33.0.
Compare this to Iowa’s impressive 5-year winning percent of 68%, which is 5th best in the Big Ten, and it supports Ferentz’s program reputation of being great developers of talent and consistently winning. But this also helps explain why Iowa may not consistently beat the best teams in the Big Ten since their good but not great recruiting likely means they will lack the quantity of elite players and playmakers needed to do so.
The good news for Hawkeye fans is Ferentz recruiting is trending in a good direction with the last 5 years better than the previous 5. For example, Iowa has finished in the Top 10 in Big Ten recruiting 4 of the last 5 years, vs zero Top 10 finishes the prior 5 years. And nationally their average rank of 33.0 the last 5 years betters their 10-year average rank of 36.8.
I think Iowa’s clear ability to develop and generate NFL level talent is appealing to recruits especially in certain positions like offensive and defensive line, tight ends and defensive backs.
Washington
Big Ten newcomer Washington also is an Overperformer with a Big Ten 5-year average recruiting ranking of only 11.8, which is just 12th best in the Big Ten, and a National 5-year average rank of 44.2. Yet Washington is winning at an impressive 67% 5-year win rate. This certainly has been helped by their 2023 National Championship finalist team in 2023 that went 14-1 and enhanced by 4 of 5 years in the easier Pac 12 but it’s still a great record, reflecting a winning program.
Washington’s overall recruiting figures are brought down by a 95 national ranked clunker in 2022 in the transition from Jimmy Lake to Kalen DeBoer. But, if you look at Washington’s recruiting back in 2016 to 2020 under Chris Petersen that saw finishes from 15th to 29th and three Top 20 finishes, it clearly shows how Washington could and should be a Top 20 type recruiting program.
And Jedd Fisch’s first real class in 2025 ranked 23rd in the nation and 8th in the Big Ten clearly supports the strong recruiting potential for Washington.
Minnesota
Minnesota and PJ Fleck are our third overachiever. The Gopher’s Big Ten 5-year average recruiting ranking is only 13.0 also ranking them 13th overall in the Big Ten, and their National 5-year average rank is 43.4. Yet, over the past 5 years Minnesota is winning at a 59% rate clearly showing Fleck knows how to develop players to help maximize the team’s potential.
In the Big Ten over the past 10 years the Gophers have not finished better than #10 which they achieved with the 2024 class. That same class gave them their best national recruiting ranking at #35 but Minnesota more typically finishes somewhere in the 40’s and were ranked #50 in 2025. The average class the last 5 years is very close to the previous 5, so we should expect Minnesota under Fleck to remain a good development program with solid on field results but a limited upside.
Illinois
Illinois Bret Bielema is entering his 5th season in Champaign and after going 10-3 in 2024 finished 16th in the final AP poll and Illinois is ranked in the Top 25 by virtually every “way too early” 2025 pre-season poll I have seen.
Illinois recruiting has been the 2nd worst in the Big Ten over the past 10 years (15.0 average rank) and their past 5-year average has been 13.6 which is tied for 14th in the Big Ten with UCLA. Bielema’s best Big Ten finish was #11 in 2023 and his 2025 class finished 12th.
Nationally, Illinois 5-year average recruiting ranking is 50.6, which is a little better than their 56.4 average rank over 10-years. Under Bielema, the Fighting Illini have finished mostly in the 40’s nationally with their best finish of #38 in 2022.
Based strictly on recruiting, it’s shocking Illinois currently has a Top 25 team but of course this doesn’t account for the transfer portal, but it clearly speaks to how Bielema and staff are good at player development. And he knows how to win with great success from his days at Wisconsin where he won 74% of his games over seven years.
The Illinois 5-year win rate has been just 52% but it’s clear Bielema’s program is on the upswing and he’s building a true program. The one thing I wonder is if Kirk Ferentz retires will Bielema go back to his home school of Iowa? Illini fans certainly hope no.
UCLA
The final Overperformer is UCLA and the main reason for this is Chip Kelly who ran the program from 2018 to 2023. The six main classes under Kelly’s realm were no better than 10th in the Big Ten (twice) and as bad as 16th in 2022 and 18th in the transition year from Kelly to DeShaun Foster.
UCLA’s 5-year Big Ten recruiting average rank is 13.6 tied for 14th in conference, and their 5-year national rank average is only 53.4. Despite this, UCLA had a solid 58% 5-year winning percentage. The data supports Kelly’s reputation as someone weak and not very interested in recruiting but who was better at development and game planning. Based on that, it should not be that surprising he left the UCLA head coach position to become the Offensive Coordinator at Ohio State where he could focus on executing game plans, which he does so well.
There is good news for Bruins fans though. Back in 2016 through 2018 under coach Jim Mora they finished 13th, 20th and 19th in national recruiting. And in 2025, DeShaun Foster’s first class came in with a promising #46 ranking. The proper focus on recruiting at UCLA likely should produce minimum Top 30 classes.
V) Mixed Bag/In the Middle Recruiters: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Rutgers
These three schools are all unique in their recruiting stories and are “in the middle” or average, so I am giving them more of a miscellaneous category label.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin used to be the model of consistency, very similar to how Iowa has been the last 10 years but with even more on field success. But that has changed the past 10 years since Paul Chryst took over in 2015 and then of course in the last two years under Luke Fickell where the Badgers are just 12-13.
Under Chryst recruiting was all over the place that included a #16 national ranking in 2021, but a 46 ranking in 2018, a #44 in 2022 and then a #59 in the transition year to Fickell. The 5-year national average rank for the Badgers is a solid 33.8, but that has been helped by Fickell’s past two-year national rankings of #23 and #27.
Wisconsin’s 5-year win rate is still a solid 55%, but that does lag their recruiting a little bit. The biggest blame can be put on Fickell’s gamble to run an Air Raid offense under Phil Longo that mostly was a disaster further hurt by quarterback injuries. I doubt though the experiment would have been that much better even without the injuries.
The future could be bright though as Fickell clearly has recruited well and Wisconsin is returning to their offensive roots with new Offensive Coordinator Jeff Grimes from Kansas who likely will re-emphasize the Badger power running game.
Michigan State
Michigan State has been on a roller coaster ride the past six years thanks to the sad Mel Tucker saga. During the 13-year Mark Dantonio reign, the Spartans were a model of consistency and typically had recruiting classes ranked in the 30’s and thrived on player development. Tucker took over for the 2020 season and after getting settled on the job attained impressive #23 and #24 national recruiting rankings in 2022 and 2023.
But then the allegations came out on Tucker and it all fell apart resulting in classes the last two years of #42 and #56 after Jonathan Smith’s first full year of coaching. Michigan State’s 5-year Big Ten average recruiting ranking is a solid 10.8 for 10th best in the Big Ten and their National 5-year average rank is a solid 38.2. But their 5-year win rate is just 48% reflecting their up and down recruiting and lack of coaching staff consistency which will kill a program in the transfer era where players can leave easily.
Smith only attaining a 16th ranked Big Ten and 56th ranked national class in 2025 is a concern.
Rutgers
Greg Schiano is in his second stint at Rutgers and just completed his 5th year back on the job. To be blunt, it’s time for Schiano to achieve better on-field results where their 5-year win rate stands at just 43%. Yes, four of the last five years have been in the tough Big Ten East but Rutgers 5-year Big Ten recruiting average is a solid 11.8, good for 11th in the Big Ten, and their 5-year National average rank is a pretty good 39.6.
Granted this is following the disastrous 4-year coaching reign of Chris Ash who mostly had the worst recruiting in the Big Ten (4 classes from 42nd to 66th) and worst on field results in the conference.
The good news though is 4 of Schiano’s 5 years have seen national classes in the 30’s, including a #33 class in 2025 so now that Rutgers is out of the Big Ten East, we should see Rutgers making bowl games annually. And with more winning, I think Schiano could improve Rutgers recruiting even more given the talent in close proximity to New Jersey.
VI) Bad Recruiters: Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern
These three schools have mostly struggled over the last 10 years in recruiting. There have been a few bright spots, especially for Purdue, but it’s mostly been fleeting success.
Indiana
Indiana has always struggled in recruiting. Not untypical for schools with a reputation mostly for basketball. Over the past 5-years Indiana’s average Big Ten recruiting ranking is 13.8 which ranks 16th best in the conference. Nationally IU is a little better with an average 5-year national rank of 51.6 good for 15th in the Big Ten. This mostly supports their 5-year win rate of 46%, but that figure was greatly improved by their unexpected great 11-2 record in Curt Cignetti’s first year this past 2024 season.
Prior to Cignetti, Tom Allen was coach for seven seasons where his best recruiting success was #25 in 2022 that was the positive fruits of their surprising 6-2 record in the 2020 shortened Covid season. But Allen’s recruiting sputtered after that with Indiana’s national recruiting falling to 68th in 2023 and 65th in 2024.
It’s well-known Cignetti’s success in 2024 was driven by transfer portal players including many from his previous job at James Madison. Cignetti’s first real class in 2025 came in at #14 in the Big Ten and #45 nationally. But the benefits of great season’s are typically not seen until two years later, so it will be telling for Indiana to see how the 2026 class ranks.
The portal can be a great way to fill holes but it’s not ideal for long-term success as we learned from Florida State this past year.
Purdue
Purdue fans have to be saying why can’t we have held on to Jeff Brohm who went 36-34 over his six seasons, He also had some good but inconsistent recruiting success seeing national classes ranked #25 and #32 in 2019 and 2020. Purdue’s 5-year Big Ten recruiting average is 14.4 which is second to last (17th) in the conference. Over the past 10 years they have finished last in Big Ten recruiting a brutal five times. Thier national 5-year average rank of 61.8 though is dead last in the Big Ten.
That recruiting makes it surprising Purdue’s 5-year win percentage isn’t worse than their 42% rate, but that was helped by Brohm’s years of finishing 9-4 and 8-6 in 2021 and 2022. Ryan Walter’s actually had a surprisingly really good 27th ranked national class in 2024 but did not parlay that into winning.
The coaching change to Barry Odom resulted in the 98th ranked class in 2025, which pulls down all the Purdue average figures. The hope is Odom can do something relatively similar to Curt Cignetti in 2024 and leverage a strong transfer class to kick start his tenure.
Northwestern
Our final team who ranks last in Big Ten recruiting is Northwestern whose 5-year Big Ten average ranking is 15.4, and they have never finished better than 14th in Big Ten recruiting the last 10 years. Nationally the Wildcats 5-year average rank is 58.0, which is actually better than Purdue, but their best finish over 10 years is #47 achieved in both 2020 and 2023.
Given this poor level of recruiting, it’s surprising Northwestern’s 5-year win percentage is not worse than 40% and shocking frankly they were able to win the Big Ten West in both 2018 and 2020.
David Braun has his work cut out for him and it won’t be made any easier by no longer residing in the offensively challenged Big Ten West.
The Final Question from this Data: Is the Big Ten’s National Recruiting Getting Better?
For this question, look at the last row in Table 2 for the National Recruiting rankings. The short answer to this question though is “No”. From an aggregate perspective, the Big Ten average team ranking is remaining pretty static – though technically the 5-year average of a 34.6 rank per Big Ten team is worse than the 33.8 average over 10 years. The average per year bounces around but mostly stays in the mid 30’s.
But I think there is a chance moving forward the Big Ten figures will improve. The Big Ten is going to have higher revenue sharing than all conferences beyond the SEC and I also think the former Pac 12 team’s USC, Washington and UCLA are going to see an improvement in their recruiting going forward. Oregon is already elite so they will stay about the same.
Big Ten Football: Spring 2025 Power Rankings – Athlon Sports
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