The NFL draft continues to get bigger and bigger. This year the draft is April 24 to 26 at Lambeau Field home of the Green Bay Packers. It’s the one event that best blends the passions of both fans in the NFL and college football, making it for many “must watch TV”. For college fans it means seeing how many of your favorite team’s players are drafted and in what round. And college fans know that strong NFL drafts can help their team leverage that to recruit better which is vital for long-term program success.
In this article, Big Jeff looks at the most recent 10-year History of NFL drafts from 2015 to 2024. I share data and insights on how the Big Ten has done relative to the other “Big 5” power conferences. I also take a close look at NFL draft production data by Big Ten school and highlight insights from that. In a future article, I will look at Big Ten production of NFL talent by position group, but in this article, I am also including info on what the most important quarterback position looks like. So, let’s get to it.
NFL Draftees by Major Conferences Over 10 Years (2015 through 2024 Drafts)
Table 1 below breaks down the total number of picks by major conference and looks at how that breaks down over both 10 years and the last 5 years to better see how things are trending. Table 2 focuses on first round picks only by conference since that is an indicator of what conferences are likely best at producing more elite NFL talent.
Special Note: In all these tables, cells in GREEN generally highlight more positive data I want to point out, while the TAN cells represent more negative data. Since the addition of the four Pac 12 schools into the Big Ten (Oregon, USC, UCLA, Washington) did not happen until the summer of 2024, all data in these tables reflects the Pac 12 as it existed before the 4 schools moved. The same holds true for the other conferences (i.e. Texas and Oklahoma draftees are all included in the Big 12 data).
Insights for Table 1: All Draft Picks by Conference
Looking at draft picks across all rounds, there is both bad and good news for the Big Ten. The bad news is the SEC is easily the best at producing NFL prospects, but the good news is the Big Ten is by far the second-best conference at producing prospects. And the gap between the SEC and the Big Ten is only slightly improving over the past five years.
Based on the SEC’s superior historical recruiting rankings, this should not be a surprise but going forward it will be interesting to see if the impact of the transfer portal may allow the Big Ten to improve vs. the SEC if players recruited by the SEC migrate more to the Big Ten through the portal, than any reverse migration from the Big Ten to the SEC.
Here are some more detailed Highlights and Insights from Table 1:
- The SEC was #1 producing 586 total picks over 10 years, which is 22.9% of the total.
- The Big Ten is the #2 conference producing 428 total picks, which is 16.7% of the total.
- The Big Ten has finished second in NFL draftees 6 of the past 10 years.
- The ACC and Pac 12 were a very close #3 and #4 respectively with 352 and 325 total draft picks – but if you consider the ACC had 14 teams while the Pac 12 had twelve teams, the Pac 12 is a little better at producing NFL talent.
- The Pac 12 went out with a bang in their final 2024 year as a conference, finishing second to the SEC with 43 picks after three straight years in the 20’s.
- Over the last 5 years, the SEC and Big Ten are getting even stronger going from 36.4% combined draft picks (from the 2015 to 2019 drafts) to 42.6% of the total picks the past 5 years.
- The best year for the Big Ten was the 2023 draft with 55 picks, just 7 less than the SEC.
- The number of picks outside the “Big 5” conferences was down dramatically the last 2 years, likely due to smaller conferences lacking competitive NIL money to offer the best players meaning the talent gap between the big and small conferences is likely to only increase.
Insights for Table 2: First Round Draft Picks by Conference
In Table 2 we only look at First Round picks which reflects a program’s ability to recruit and produce elite level talent. Having these “difference making” players is often the key in winning the biggest games against top opponents. It also often reveals what programs are producing talent in the most important “premium” positions like quarterback, offensive tackle, defensive ends, wide receivers and cornerbacks.
The SEC is #1 in first round picks with 105 at 33.0% of the total, which is even stronger relative to the other conferences than their #1 position in overall draft picks. The Big Ten is #2 with 59 first round picks which is 18.6% of the total. The ACC comes in 3rd with 51 first round picks, followed closely in 4th by the Pac 12 with 47 picks, and finally the Big 12 is last of the big conferences with just 28 picks.
The gap between both the SEC and the Big Ten with the other three conferences increases even more looking at the past 5 years of data. The last 5 years the SEC has increased to 37.1% of first round picks (vs 33.0% over 10 years) and the Big Ten went up to 20.1% over the last 5 years (vs 18.6% the prior 10 years).
This means the talent disparity between the powerful SEC and Big Ten conferences is getting significantly greater at the expense of the other conferences indicating the SEC and Big Ten might dominate college football even more in the future.
Here are some other Highlights and Insights from Table 2:
- The SEC had the most first rounds picks 8 of 10 years.
- The Big Ten was either second or tied for second 7 of 10 years.
- The SEC and Big Ten combined has gone from 45.9% of first round picks (from 2015 to 2019) to 57.2% the most recent 5 years – increasing their accumulation of top end talent.
- These figures likely don’t fully reflect the potential impact of NIL and what school a player ends up at and then gets drafted; I suspect we may see more of that impact starting with this year’s draft
Quarterback Draft Picks by Major Conferences Over 10 Years (2015 through 2024 Drafts)
Since quarterback is the most important position in football, let’s look at that data. Table 3 below breaks down the total number of quarterback draft picks by major conference. The table also looks at how that breaks down over both the last 10 and 5 years to better see trends. Table 4 below then focuses on quarterback draft picks only from the first round since that is a potential indicator of conferences producing elite NFL quarterback play. Though the QB position is notoriously very hard to project by NFL teams.
Insights for Table 3: All Quarterback Draft Picks by Conference
In the most important position, the Big Ten is only the 3rd best producing 17 quarterback draft picks over 10 years for 15% of the total. The SEC is #1 with 24 quarterback draft picks or 21.2% of the total. The Pac 12 comes in second producing 20 quarterback picks over the 10 years. The ACC and Big 12 tie for fourth with 14 QB picks. This helps support the reputation of the Big Ten as being a more stronger defense and run oriented conference.
Looking at the last 5 years only, the data gets even worse for the Big Ten with only 6 quarterbacks drafted (avg. of 1.2/year), that included zero in the 2022 draft. Meanwhile, the SEC’s data is even stronger with 17 quarterbacks drafted the past 5 years (avg. of 3.4/year) for 29.8% of the total. And they have had 9 quarterbacks drafted over the past two years alone.
Insights for Table 4: Quarterback First Rounds Draft Picks by Conference
Let’s look at first round quarterback picks only from Table 4. Surprisingly the Pac 12 and ACC are actually tied for most with 8 first round picks. The SEC is third with 6 and the Big Ten is tied with the Big 12 for fourth with only 4 first round QB picks. What is even more disappointing is Ohio State is responsible for 3 of the 4 picks with Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields and CJ Stroud going in round one over the past six drafts. Only Michigan‘s J.J. McCarthy in the 2024 draft was also a first round QB pick.
This extremely poor quarterback production helps explain a lot about the Big Ten. To be a true Top 5 like program, win games against the top teams and challenge for National Championships typically requires teams to have very high-level quarterback play. Something the Big Ten has clearly been deficient in over the past 10 years with the recent exception of Ohio State and Michigan, who have won the last two National Championships.
This must improve in the future for the Big Ten and is relevant to the upcoming 2025 season as Penn State likely needs QB Drew Allar to play like a true first round NFL draft pick to win the Big Ten and make a serious run at a National Championship.
NFL Draft Picks by Big Ten Team – Over 10 Years
Covering the 2015 through 2024 NFL Drafts
Now let’s look at how successful each Big Ten team has been at producing NFL draft picks. For this exercise we are going to merge the data from the four Pac 12 teams who entered the Big Ten for the 2024 season (Oregon, UCLA, USC and Oregon who are highlighted in light Blue shaded rows), with the 14 other Big Ten schools.
First Table 5 below shows total draft picks per Big Ten team over the last 10 years and also provides in the last column how each team has recruited the past 10 years. This allows us to draw more detailed insights on programs by comparing their ability to generate NFL players with their recruiting rankings.
Insights for Table 5: NFL Draft Picks by Big Ten Team
It’s very interesting that the four Pac 12 schools that were added to the Big Ten for the 2024 season, all rank together from #4 to #7 in the conference right behind Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. In general, each schools recruiting success, is a good indicator of being able to produce NFL draft picks but there are some definite exceptions we will highlight below.
Table 5 Highlights and Insights for the Top NFL Producing Teams:
- Ohio State is the best in the Big Ten at producing NFL talent the past 10 years with 76 total picks (12.8% of the total), which is not surprising given they have had the #1 recruiting rankings in that same timeframe in the Big Ten as well.
- Michigan is second best in the conference with 69 picks (11.7% of the total) including a huge 22 total picks the past two years and 13 in 2024.
- Penn State comes in third with 54 picks (9.1% of the total) and are consistent with at least 5 draft picks the past seven years.
- Washington is the biggest surprise tied for 4th with USC in most Big Ten picks with 44, despite a 10-year average Big Ten recruiting ranking of just 9.1. A big driver is the 10 picks from the 2024 team.
- UCLA is the second biggest surprise ranked 6th in the Big Ten producing 39 NFL picks (6.6% of the total), despite recruiting averaging just 10.7 in the Big Ten showing how well they have been in player development.
- Oregon is the third biggest surprise but in a bad way. Despite having the second best Big Ten recruiting the past 10 years (avg rank of 3.4), they have been only 7th best in producing NFL talent at 37 picks (6.3%), but the last two years is much better under Dan Lanning with 14 total picks.
For Big Ten teams ranked 8th or lower in producing NFL talent (from Table 5) here is what stands out:
- Both Iowa and Wisconsin are very consistent in talent production and have had at least 2 draft picks each of the past eight drafts and rank 8th and 9th best in producing NFL talent
- There’s a huge disconnect between Nebraska’s recruiting, which has been 6th best in the Big Ten (avg. rank of 7.3), and draft production where they only have 18 picks over 10 years ranking tied for 14th in the Big Ten with Purdue. Player development and retention has been a disaster in Lincoln.
- Illinois comes in 13th in the Big Ten with 19 total picks but noticeably under Bret Bielema has had 8 picks the past two years showing his strong ability to develop players.
- Northwestern has had the worst Big Ten recruiting average, is 16th best in producing NFL talent with 15 picks and yet still was able to win the Big Ten West twice over the past 10 years. They produce more with less than probably any Big Ten team.
- Rutgers and Indiana stand out in a very bad way tied for last in the Big Ten with 11 draft picks produced for a terrible average slightly better than 1 draft pick per year.
- Indiana in particular under Tom Allen’s coaching tenure is particularly embarrassing having just 4 picks over his last six years at the school, including none his final two years in 2023 and 2024
- All of the other Big Ten schools’ production of NFL talent is pretty well in line with their recruiting rankings (this includes USC, Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota, and Purdue).
Insights for Table 6: NFL First Round Draft Picks by Big Ten Team
Finally, we look at how well Big Ten teams generate first round NFL draft picks in Table 6 below. This is important again since first round picks are likely to indicate a program’s ability to generate elite level players who tend to come from premium positions (i.e. QB, WR, DB, O-line and Defensive End) that can make the biggest difference in winning football games.
Continuing a theme throughout this article is Ohio State is the best by far producing elite talent with 22 first round picks (23.9% of the total) including at least one for nine straight drafts.
And Washington once again is the biggest surprise ranking 2nd in first round picks with 11 (12% of the total), that included 3 in the 2024 draft, despite only having an average Big Ten recruiting rank of 9.1.
Here are some other Highlights and Insights from Table 6 focused on First Round Picks
- The 4 new former Pac 12 schools joining the Big Ten also were the top 4 in producing 1st round picks.
- Michigan is third with 10 picks including at least one for six straight drafts. This has mirrored their improved performance on the field.
- USC and Oregon come in 4th and 5th best with 9 and 8 first round picks respectively.
- Besides Washington, Iowa is the other big surprise in producing first round picks (7 total and 6 the past six years) well beyond their recruiting rankings, which has averaged a 10.9 rank in the Big Ten the past 10 years
- Nebraska comes in once again as the most disappointing Big Ten program with ZERO first round picks over 10 years despite a 7.3 average Big Ten recruiting ranking
- Joining Nebraska in zero production of first round picks is Indiana and Rutgers
- In fact, incredibly Indiana has not had a first round NFL pick since wide receiver Thomas Lewis in 1994 (30 seasons), the longest streak in the nation
- Purdue, Illinois and Minnesota also stand out in a bad way with just one first round pick the past 10 years
In summary, this draft data shows the Big Ten as the second-best conference but clearly behind the SEC in NFL talent generation, and it supports general perceptions of college media and fans. It’s clear the Big Ten must get better at the quarterback position and I think it’s the mid-tier teams (like Michigan State, Nebraska, etc.) that need to up their recruiting and talent development abilities to help gain on the SEC.
With the draft within a month from now we are close to getting new data to compare to see if the Big Ten is closing the gap with the SEC.
Historical Big Ten Football Recruiting Rankings: Where does your team rank?
Grading Big Ten Football Coaches Entering 2025: What do the numbers say? – Big Jeff’s Football
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