It’s been a great post-season for the Big Ten. Here is a list of the key accomplishments:
- Two playoff semi-finalists in Ohio State and Penn State
- Playoff record of 4-2, including a 42-17 Ohio State dominant victory over the SEC’s Tennessee Volunteers
- Non-playoff overall bowl record of 5-3
- Combined 9-5 overall post-season record
- 4-1 record against the SEC (including OSU over TN, USC over Texas A&M, Michigan over Alabama, Illinois over S. Carolina, and one defeat of Missouri over Iowa)
There is a good chance we have an all-Big Ten National Championship game of Ohio State vs Penn State. No matter what happens the post-season will only have enhanced the Big Ten’s football reputation, but it would be a disappointment if the Big Ten did not get a National Champion for the second year in a row. Especially with how Ohio State is playing right now.
Ohio State has totally shaken off the Michigan upset loss and have played angry and aggressive in two blowout wins over Tennessee and #1 ranked Oregon in the Rose Bowl. In Texas, Ohio State is facing one of the most talented college football rosters on both offense and defense, but the Longhorns have not played to their full potential this year.
On the other side, Penn State vs. Notre Dame is a matchup of two similar teams. Strong and talented Top 10 defenses, with offenses more run oriented but not as strong as the defense. The biggest difference might be the quarterbacks where Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard is more a runner than a thrower, and Penn State’s Drew Allar has a big arm and is a good passer who has the ability to be mobile when needed but would prefer not to run. Before we get into game details, let’s review my Playoff Pick results and note I did not predict Big Ten bowl games due to too many variables of transfers, opt outs and similar unknowns.
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Playoff Round 2 Picks – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Playoff Round 1 Picks – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (2nd Round of Playoffs and Year-to-Date)
- Fiesta Bowl: #6 Penn State -11.5 #3 Boise State – The Pick Penn State WON
- Rose Bowl: #8 Ohio State -2.5 #1 Oregon – The Pick Ohio State WON
Year-to-Date Results
- College Playoffs Second Round (Big Ten teams only): 2-0 vs. Spread
- College Playoffs Through Second Round (Big Ten teams only): 3-2 vs Spread
- Big Ten Regular Season Year-to-Date: 45-35-1 vs Spread; 4-7 in “Lock City” picks of week
Here are the Big Ten games for Playoffs Round 2: (Odds by ESPNBET on 1/7/25).
College Football Playoff Semi-Finals Picks (2 Games)
- Orange Bowl: #7 Notre Dame (13-1) -1.5 #6 Penn State (13-2) – The Pick: Penn State
- Cotton Bowl: #8 Ohio State (12-2) -5.5 #5 Texas (13-2) – The Pick: Ohio State
Orange Bowl: #7 Notre Dame (13-1) -1.5 #6 Penn State (13-2) – Thursday Night
Penn State had an easy path to the semi-finals but anything can happen in college football so James Franklin and company should be commended for how strongly they played in both wins. A win over Notre Dame would be huge for James Franklin since he still has the reputation of not beating the very best teams with his 1-13 record against Top 5 opponents. Most of this is due to his failures against Ohio State where Penn State has lost 8 games in a row.
This season, Penn State’s best win is against #9 playoff seeded Boise State who was 8th in the end of season AP poll. Notre Dame is #3 in the AP poll and seeded #5 in the playoff rankings.
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman meanwhile is carving his own path in his third year in South Bend after taking over for Brian Kelly. He has improved the Irish’s recruiting and it shows in how talented this team is on both sides of the ball. The only thing they really lack is a strong wide receiver group which is actually similar to Penn State. The quarterfinal win over Georgia was absolutely huge to shake Notre Dame’s reputation of coming up short against the best teams. A win over Penn State could totally shake that reputation.
According to ESPN (link below), including both Playoff Rounds Notre Dame has the 31st best strength of schedule in the nation and 3rd Strength of Record, while Penn State has the 17th best strength of schedule in the nation and 6th Strength of Record.
2024 Resume College Football Power Index – ESPN
Let’s compare how these team’s rank statistically nationally.
- Total Offense: Penn State 436 yards per game (ypg) – 25th in Nation; Notre Dame 407 ypg – 49th in Nation
- Rushing Offense: Penn State 202 ypg – 18th in nation; Notre Dame 218 ypg – 11th in Nation
- Passing Offense: Penn State 234 ypg – 58th in Nation; Notre Dame 189 ypg – 108th in Nation
- Points Scored: Penn State 33.7 points/game – 24th in Nation; Notre Dame 37.7. points/game – 4th in Nation
- Total Defense: Penn State 289 yards per game (ypg) – 6th in Nation; Notre Dame 295 ypg – 8th in Nation
- Rushing Defense: Penn State 101 ypg – 8th in Nation; Notre Dame 128 ypg – 34th in Nation
- Passing Defense: Penn State 188 ypg – 27th in Nation; Notre Dame 167 ypg – 5th in Nation
- Scoring Defense: Penn State 15.8 points/game – 7th in Nation; Notre Dame 13.6 points/game – 2nd in Nation
Why Notre Dame Can Cover: Penn State’s lack of game breaking receivers means Notre Dame can rely on their strong corners to go one-on-one with the Irish wideouts, so the rest of the defense can focus on stopping the Penn State run game and tight end Tyler Warren. I suspect the game plan is to stop the run and force Drew Allar to make big throws which he has done some but not extensively in his career.
QB Riley Leonard is going to have to play one of his best games and his running ability is a big wild card in this game. Penn State has yet to face a true running quarterback this year which might really stress their defense. Plus, other teams have had success running the ball against them which is what Notre Dame wants to do. In the Big Ten Championship Oregon had 41 rushes for 186 yards or 4.5 yards/carry. Ohio State had similar success with 40 carries for 176 yards or 4.4 yards/carry. It’s vital the Irish have success running the ball.
Often tight games like these come down to turnovers and this favors the Irish who are 3rd in the nation at +18 in turnover margin (including 18 interceptions) while Penn State rates a good 21st with a +10 turnover margin but advantage here for Notre Dame.
The coaching matchup of Irish Defensive Coordinator Al Golden vs. Penn State Offensive Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will be very compelling and a key to victory. Both are really good at what they do but haven’t had to do it with so much on the line. Overall, I call this coaching matchup a wash. Both staffs are very good.
Why Penn State Can Cover:
Penn State and Notre Dame defensively are both great and rate similarly. Notre Dame statistically is better vs the pass than the run, but I think that’s impacted by how the Irish played more run-oriented teams (i.e. Army, Navy) than Penn State did. An advantage for Penn State is they have a more well-balanced offense and the better passing quarterback in Drew Allar. Penn State is 58th in passing offense where Notre Dame is only 108th at 189 yards/game.
Notre Dame has not faced many teams with strong passing game but the best they faced was USC who was #10 in the nation in pass offense, and they lit up the Irish defense for 557 total yards and 360 yards passing. Louisville was 26th in passing offense and they had 264 yards passing in a 31-24 loss to Notre Dame. Penn State doesn’t have the receivers that USC has nor probably Louisville, but the point is the Nittany Lions have the better throwing QB and a better chance to be balanced which is harder to defend and also means they are better equipped to make up a scoring deficit.
On defense, Penn State has the 8th best run defense in the nation and will look to focus on stopping the Irish rushing attack and forcing Riley Leonard to make big throws. Both team’s defenses are excellent in the red zone with Penn State rated 4th and Notre Dame 5th in the nation.
Big Jeffs Call: As the spread indicates, this game is as tight as it comes and a tough call. I lean to Penn State based on having the better overall quarterback and ability to pass the ball. Plus, they have the best offensive player on the field in TE Tyler Warren giving Penn State the ability to be more balanced and harder for a great defense to defend. An unknown I have not mentioned is the health status of elite rush defensive end Abdul Carter for Penn St. I am assuming he will play but be way less than 100%.
This could likely come down to which quarterback plays best, makes the most of their mobility and executes in the Red Zone. For this I will go with the more talented QB in Drew Allar. Penn State covers and wins in an exciting slug fest. Penn State 24 Notre Dame 21.
Cotton Bowl: #8 Ohio State (12-2) -5.5 #5 Texas (13-2) – Friday Night
Ohio State takes on Texas in the Cotton Bowl where it’s expected to be a majority Texas crowd. We also have the potential for bad snow and ice type of weather which could have an impact on the game placing more importance on the run game. These are two of the biggest colleges in the nation and definitely both 2 of the top 5 biggest name brands in college football.
The story lines are as big as Texas. Can Ohio State and Ryan Day continue their roll and win a National Championship (Day’s first) after the disappointing Michigan upset? Can former Ohio State QB Quinn Ewers (one year) beat his old team? Can Ohio State QB Will Howard avenge his 0-4 record vs Texas from his Kansas State days? And can the SEC “salvage” their season by seeing one of their teams go on to win the National Championship?
People have wondered why Ohio State couldn’t have played like they have in the playoffs all year long. But that’s an oversimplification and forgets how all their injuries on their Offensive Line have hampered their offense and it appears their recent line adjustments have addressed those issues as QB Will Howard has had a lot of time to execute the Buckeyes passing game. And then Howard himself had a terrible pefromance vs. Michigan, including two interceptions, which I believe impacted the play calling in that game. And in the two playoff wins he is playing the best football of his career.
While the pressure is significantly less on Ryan Day, many still feel he needs to win a National Championship to truly prove he is a great coach. Though for some, only wins against Michigan would prove it.
Texas meanwhile has had an up and down season. After winning at Michigan early, many had them as the #1 team but then they ran into a buzz saw in a regular season loss at home to Georgia and then lost to Georgia again in the SEC Championship game. After thumping Clemson in the first round of the playoffs they were on the verge of blowing out Arizona State in Round 2 before their big comeback required a 4th and 13 conversion in overtime from a clutch Quin Ewers pass to advance.
Texas is super talented but their only wins against teams who finished in the final regular season AP rankings is from the playoffs versus #10 AP ranked Arizona State and #13 ranked Clemson so they have doubters they are looking to prove wrong.
According to ESPN (link below), including both Playoff Rounds, Ohio State has the 8th best strength of schedule in the nation and 4th Strength of Record, while Texas has the 11th best strength of schedule and the #5 rated strength of record.
2024 Resume College Football Power Index – ESPN
Let’s compare how these team’s rank statistically nationally.
- Total Offense: Ohio State 433 yards per game (ypg) – 26th in Nation; Texas 444 ypg – 17th in Nation
- Rushing Offense: Ohio State 169 ypg – 53rd in nation; Texas 166 ypg – 63rd in Nation
- Passing Offense: Ohio State 263 ypg – 29th in Nation; Texas 279 ypg – 15th in Nation
- Points Scored: Ohio State 36.4 points/game – 11th in Nation; Texas 34.3 points/game – 21st in Nation
- Total Defense: Ohio State 245 yards per game (ypg) – 1st in Nation; Texas 278 ypg – 3rd in Nation
- Rushing Defense: Ohio State 92 ypg – 5th in Nation; Texas 112 ypg – 14th in Nation
- Passing Defense: Ohio State 152 ypg – 1st in Nation; Texas 166 ypg – 3rd in Nation
- Scoring Defense: Ohio State 12.1 points/game – 1st in Nation; Texas 14.5 points/game – 4th in Nation
Why Ohio State Can Cover: Both teams have consistent, elite defenses but Ohio State’s offense the past two games has been brilliant while Texas has struggled – especially in the running game. Ohio State has used early success in the passing game to set up the run where TreVeyon Henderson especially has looked explosive and fresh. That was a strategy all year for OSU to reduce the workload on Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to keep them fresh for a playoff run.
Texas has the best secondary OSU will face and strong pass rush but if Will Howard keeps playing sharp and executes well it will be very hard for Texas to contain all the Ohio State weapons. Howard only needs to come fairly close to his play thus far in the playoffs and if the Ohio State line wins up front then it should be a fairly easy Buckeye’s victory. But that high level of play is difficult to keep up.
On defense, Ohio State has been brilliant under Defensive Coordinator Jim Knowles. The defensive line led by ends Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau have been a wrecking crew. They totally bottled up and confused Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel in the first half in the quarterfinals and if not for Gabriel’s excellent play in the second half it would have been larger than a 21-point OSU win. OSU is also using safety Caleb Downs as a rover over the middle which is causing havoc for opposing offenses.
Since it’s going to be hard for Texas to run the ball vs an OSU defense giving up just 92 yards/game, Texas is going to have to find some big plays from Quinn Ewers and his receivers. But he will need time to make those throws and that will be difficult against this Ohio State front.
The Buckeyes are confident, but Texas is one of the few teams who can rival their roster and talent. But Ohio State has both the best offensive player on the field in WR Jeremiah Smith and defensive player in safety Caleb Downs. I expect the coaching staff to game plan to allow both of them to star in this matchup.
Why take the points with Texas: Texas has the best defensive secondary probably in all of football which gives them a chance to contain Jeremiah Smith and the OSU passing game which has been so dynamic. They will need their talented front four to win the line of scrimmage which they are capable of to limit Howard’s time to get the passing game. They also could use one or two Howard mistakes which he is capable of as seen from his mistake’s vs Penn State (pick six and fumbling through the end zone) and Michigan (two interceptions).
On offense Quinn Ewers must have one of the best games of his career which can happen with the help of coach Steve Sarkisian is one of the best play callers in the game. Texas has struggled to get the run game going in the playoffs and against OSU’s fifth best run defense it will be even more difficult. But if Texas is able to contain the OSU pass rush, the Buckeyes secondary is susceptible to giving up big plays. Texas is more than capable of putting up points if Ewers is sharp.
Getting off to a fast start will be vital for the Longhorns. Once Ohio State’s offense gets going it will be hard to stop. An early lead will keep the majority Texas crowd in the game and put some serious pressure on the Buckeyes.
Big Jeff’s Call: If any team can stop Ohio State, I think Texas is best suited among the semi-final participants. People are talking as if everyone is favoring Ohio State, yet the line is only 5.5 for Ohio State and has hardly moved showing that many like the Longhorns to cover. The biggest key is can the Texas defensive line win upfront and disrupt the Ohio State offense which is executing on all cylinders. I think Texas can early but I don’t think they can keep it up the whole game.
On offense for Texas, it will be a big negative that Ewers is not mobile and that will limit Texas ability to hurt the Buckeye defense and keep drives alive. Will Howard will not play as well keeping this closer but overall, the Buckeyes are on a mission and still playing angry and I see them pulling away for a double-digit win. Ohio State 34 Texas 24.
