Round 1 of Playoffs Big Ten Football Pick of the Week and Playoff Team Recruiting Review

Bowl Week 1 Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

(Odds by FanDuel)

General Comments:

• For the regular season and including the Big Ten Championship game I was 30-30 overall and 7-5 in my Lock City picks.
• I am putting bowl season and the playoffs in a completely different category.  Kind of like tracking stats in the post-season like baseball does.
• In Bowl Week 1, I was 1-0 and correctly chose Washington to beat Boise State and cover the 9.5 points

What I Got Right in Bowl Week 1: 

• In the Bucked-up L.A. Bowl, Washington was a 9.5 point favorite over Boise State and I had Washington covering and winning 35 to 21.
  • The Huskies easily won 38-10 and key to that was the 5 interceptions thrown by Boise State with 2 thrown by starter Maddux Madsen and 3 by backup QB Max Cutforth.
  • Washington had one fumble, but Boise was -4 in Turnovers and a team is not going to win doing that.
  • Madsen entered this game not 100% with a lower leg injury and played only in the first half before sitting out the second half wearing a protective boot.
  • I had said Washington’s 5^th best run defense giving up only 104 yards/game should shut down Boise’s rushing attack and that turned out correct as the Broncos had only 58 yards at 2.1 yards/carry.
  • Washington meanwhile had all their key players play including WR Denzel Boston who had a huge game in likely his last for the Huskies catching 6 passes for 126 yards and a 78-yard TD in the second quarter.
  • I had said Washington had a HUGE advantage at QB and this was exactly true as similar to last year’s bowl breakout game QB Demond Williams, Jr. had a big game with 215 yards passing with 4 touchdowns.
  • Jonah Coleman also played well with 85 yards rushing and a TD.
  • Finally, I had felt Washington would be highly motivated in this game and I think that was true despite the speculation of coach Jedd Fisch being a candidate for the Michigan job which looks like it was not a distraction.
  • Assuming Fisch stays, this game could be a big springboard for Washington next year.

Big Ten Championship Game Insights and What a 16-Team with Auto Bid Playoffs would look like this year

Forde-Yard Dash: Vibe check for every bowl game and CFP first-round matchups

Bowl Season Week 2 Big Ten Bowls/Playoffs (1 game)

All Odds by FanDuel as of 12.17.25.

Playoffs Round 1: #5 OREGON -21.5 vs. #24 James Madison (Eugene, OR) 48.5 O/U – per FanDuel

Background:

Oregon is 11-1 overall and 8-1 in the Big Ten with their only loss at home 30-20 to #1 ranked Indiana and finished 3^rd in the Big Ten.

James Madison finished 12-1 overall and 8-0 in the Sun Belt standings and won the East division and then beat Troy from the west division in the Sun Belt championship game 31-14. 

ESPN SP+ has Oregon ranked #4 overall and with the #5 ranked defense in the nation.   James Madison is a surprising #24 in SP+ that includes ranking 22^nd in offense and 27^th in defense.  JMU is rated better than even #27 Michigan in this metric.  Based on SP+ ranking points JMU is only 12.9 points behind Oregon (27.1 minus 14.2). 

Pro Football Focus has Oregon rated #2 and with the 38^th toughest schedule in the nation while JMU is 16^th with the 109^th hardest schedule.  JMU is extremely well respected by the metrics.

Because JMU is in a lower-level conference with no common opponents with Oregon, this is a very hard evaluation so I am not going into as much detail with my analysis.

Why Take the Points with Oregon:

1-Based on last year’s first playoff game exit vs Ohio State in Round 2, I think Dan Lanning is going to have his team hyper focused on getting out to a really fast start in this game to set the tone and the Ducks will play in this game with a big chip on their shoulder and something to prove.

2-If James Madison is not able to run the ball and falls behind, they don’t have the type of passing offense to allow them to play catch up increasing the chances if Oregon gets a lead, they likely can add to it and potentially capitalize on some JMU turnovers.

James Madison passing offense at 203 yards/game was only 10^th in the Sun Belt conference and ranks 92^nd in the nation.  Junior quarterback Alonza Barnett III completed only 60% of his passes for 2,533 yards and has 21 TDs with 8 interceptions and has been sacked 18 times.  JMU’s top receiver has only 541 total yards with 5 TDs pointing to how the Dukes are not explosive in the pass game. 

Meanwhile, Oregon is #6 in the Big Ten and 20^th in the nation in rushing defense giving up 107 yards/game at only 3.19 yards/carry and have likely faced more formidable rushing attacks in the Big Ten in Penn State, Indiana and Iowa.  The Ducks are big and physical upfront and if the run fails for JMU the Ducks defense is also a very good #3 in Big Ten pass defense yielding just 144 yards/game.

Plus, JMU is only -1 in Turnover margin which is 76^th in the nation while Oregon is +8, which is tied for 18^th indicating JMU is more susceptible to turnovers leading to added Oregon possessions for their potent offense.

3-Oregon is excellent in the trenches, so it’s going to be hard for JMU to match that physicality over 4 quarters.

The Big Ten is a physical conference and along with Indiana and Ohio State, Oregon might have the best and most physical offensive and defensive front that could be a major problem for a Power 5 conference team like JMU to contend with.

Plus, JMU will need to contend with Oregon deep running game that is 2^nd in Big Ten rush offense and14^th in the nation averaging 218 yards/game and their 5.8 yards/carry is also 5^th in the nation.

Why James Madison Can Cover:

1-James Madison has a dominating defense that is excellent against both the run and the pass and the strength of their offense is the running game so this combo should allow JMU to contain Oregon’s scoring and leverage the run to shorten the game and get it into the 4^th quarter close where they can hopefully pull off an upset/keep it close.

Defense is clearly the strength of this team and the stats are impressive.  They are 1^st in their conference yielding15.8 PPG and 1^st in total defense at 248 yards/game with the next closest team Old Dominion at 331 yards/game.  They are also 1^st in pass defense and 12^th in nation yielding just 172 passing yards/game.  And they are 1^st in conference run defense at 76.2/game, which is also 2^nd in the nation.  This defense is legit.

Then on offense the Dukes are first in the conference in rushing at 246 yards/game which is 5^th in the nation and average 5.6 yards/carry for 12^th best in the nation.  This is the kind of team that Big Ten fans will appreciate and look more like an old Big Ten West team than anything.  And all that can add up to a close game.

2-The aggregate statistics say this game should be closer than the 21.5 point spread.

I reviewed those in the background but being ranked #24 overall in the statistically based ESPN SP+ metric is very telling and PFF provided similar high rankings so it’s unlikely this team is a pretender.

3-Coach Bob Chesney took over for Curt Cignetti when he left for Indiana two years ago so of course JMU will be quite familiar with how IU has parlayed Cignetti’s processes and belief not to have any self-imposed limitations, and I think JMU can tap into that and play with real belief they can play toe-to-toe with Oregon.

Belief is vital in sports, and I think the Indiana story could really help JMU especially given Indiana won at Oregon earlier this year.   If Indiana can do it, why can’t we play with Oregon also?

Big Jeff’s Call:   There are some wildcard aspects to this game.  JMU coach Bob Chesney has already been named the next UCLA coach so how locked in will he and his coaching staff really be for this game?  Of course, they want to win but will they have been able to put in the proper game prep needed.

For Dan Lanning, both his coordinators (Tosh Lupoi-California and Will Stein-Kentucky) have been named as new head coaches but are staying on for Oregon’s playoff run so it’s hard to do 2 jobs at once. 

Since I compared James Madison to Indiana earlier, like last year for Indiana, a question is how does James Madison handle the big stage of the playoffs and being in a raucous road environment like at Oregon?

Given what happened last year when Oregon got thumped by Ohio State, I just think they are going to come out very hyper focused and ultimately Oregon is too good in the trenches and has too much fire power for JMU to keep up in scoring.  Now I have not seen JMU play this season, so my confidence is not high, but I am calling for the Ducks to win and cover.

Oregon 38 James Madison 13.  Confidence: Medium

My Other Comment on the Playoffs:

• Since I did not closely watch teams outside the Big Ten this year, I am not providing a game-by-game analysis and prediction of all the playoff games for teams outside the Big Ten.
• But I do predict that in the end Ohio State will beat Indiana for the national title and if that happens, even the fact Indiana made it that far will be huge for furthering Big Ten perceptions.

Special Topic: Recruiting Rankings and Talent Composite Index Review for all 12 playoffs teams. 

• In the new landscape of college football with NIL and the transfer portal, a topic that comes up frequently now in podcasts and discussions is how has the importance of recruiting changed?
• Nobody who knows college football will pretend that recruiting is way overrated and doesn’t matter.
• It always has been the lifeblood of consistently great football teams and my Big Jeff’s Data has backed that up.
• Back in July I did a podcast about the level of Recruiting needed to win a National Title based on the 20 prior National Champs.
• Here is what that data revealed:

1. 16 of the past 20 National Champions (80%) had an average 4-year recruiting average national rank of 7.8 or better
2. 19 of 20 National Champions also had at least 2 of the prior 4 years in the Top 10 in national recruiting (the lone exception was 2016 Clemson)
3. The 4-year recruiting average national rank of all 20 National Champions was 5.9
4. The 4 schools that did not average in the Top 10 in recruiting still recruited at a high level and were all at least in the Top 15 (12.3, 10.8, 12.8, and 14.8) – more on these later
5. The 4 teams that did not have a 4-year recruiting average of 7.8 or better (listed below) all had one thing in common: an Elite level quarterback that played Elite during the Championship season and was drafted at worst #12 in the first round when they became draft eligible

1. 2023 Michigan (JJ McCarthy #12 pick to Minnesota)
2. 2018 Clemson (Trevor Lawrence #1 pick to Jacksonville)
3. 2016 Clemson (Deshaun Watson #12 pick to Houston)
4. 2011 Auburn (Cam Newton #1 pick to Carolina)

• Which is why the prospect of Indiana actually possibly winning a Natty is truly unprecedented.
• Looking at the 12 playoff teams and how they have recruited and their estimated talent is informative. 
• In this table, I like the 12 playoff teams in order of seeding from #1 seed Indiana to #12 seed James Madison.
• At the bottom I also list the first four teams out.
• Then I show each teams 4-Year average 247 sports composite recruiting ranking.
• Their 247 Sports Talent Composite ranking in 2025
• And the last column is the difference between each teams Talent Composite national ranking and their Playoff Committee final playoff ranking.
• What does the data show?
• First let’s look at the two Group of 5 playoff seeds who are the last 2 seeds since they are clearly outliers and are only in this discussion because this 12-team playoff wanted to be inclusive beyond only Power 4 teams.
• James Madison is the #12 seed, but their final committee playoff rank is only #24 and will play Oregon as we have discussed.
• Their 4-year recruiting average is 141^st in the nation.  There are only 134 FBS teams I think so this means they are behind some FCS teams even.
• Their Talent Composite is 127^th ranked in the nation.
• If James Madison looks competitive vs Oregon, then that is a big hit to the importance of recruiting rankings and this Talent index.
• Tulane is the #11 seed and ranked 20^th by the committee but their figures look more reasonable with a 4-year recruiting average of #71 in the nation and a talent composite index of 68^th.
• With two Group of 5 teams making the field, you can count on playoff changes to require some minimum standards to make the field.  It could look something like you need to be at least Top 20 to make the field and only 1 Group of 5 team is eligible.
• Let’s focus on the Top 10 seeds data then, first looking at the 4-year average National Recruiting rankings.
• Of the top 10 playoff seeds, 6 of the 10 have a 4-year average national recruiting ranking of #10 in the nation or better.
• The top 2 are both Georgia and Alabama each with a 4-year average of 2^nd in the nation.  Ohio State is next with a 4-year average of 4^th in the nation.
• Then it’s Oregon at 8 in national recruiting and Oklahoma and Miami at 10^th.
• Texas A&M comes in at 11^th in recruiting so still very high, followed by Ole Miss with a solid 22^nd in nation recruiting rank – so that is 8 of the Top 10 playoff seeds in the Top 22.
• Also, looking at the First Four Out, Notre Dame’s is 10^th and Texas is 4^th.  Outliers are Vanderbilt at 50^th and BYU at 58^th.
• In the Top 10 seeds, there are 2 big outliers.
• #4 Texas Tech comes in at 34^th in national recruiting, and then #1 seed Indiana is 51^st in the 4-year average recruiting.
• For me, this data supports that high level recruiting still matter a lot but just not as much as in the past but key to this is to see how Indiana and Texas Tech do in these playoffs.
• Now let’s look at the 247 Sports Talent Composite Index information focusing on the Top 10 seeds only.
• 5 of the top 10 seeds are in the Top 10 in the talent composite – with Georgia at #1, Alabama #2, Ohio State #3,  Oregon at #5 and Texas A&M at #8.
• Looking at the Top 25 in the talent index, we add 3 more Top 10 seeds so that of the Top 10 seeds 8 of them are in the Top 25 of the Talent Composite index.
  • Oklahoma is 14^th in the talent index, Miama is 15^th and Ole Miss is 21^st
• #4 seed Texas Tech has the 29^th rated Talent Composite so that makes them an outlier for this data.
• But of course the really big outlier is #1 seed Indiana who only ranks 72^nd in the Talent Composite and yet here they are 13-0 and ranked #1.
• It’s why the story of Indiana might be the greatest story in the history of college football.
• A few more thoughts on this.
• First, I have less confidence in the data for the Talent Composite Index vs the National Recruiting rankings.
• The Talent index factors in the rankings of transfers and your existing rosters – and I just think that is harder to evaluate vs. the recruiting services have been honing their rankings systems for years.
• Circling back to my recruiting data for the last 20 national champions.

• If you loosely stick to that criteria and say that only teams with at least a Top 15 average 4-year recruiting ranking can win a Natty (since 20 of the last 20 have that characteristic), then there are 7 teams this year that can win it all:
• #2 seed Ohio State, #3 Georgia, #5 Oregon, #7 Texas A&M, #8 seed Oklahoma, #9 seed Alabama and #10 seed Miami.
• But specific to Indiana, they do have the Elite quarterback in Fernando Mendoza that will be a top draft pick that could help them overcome all this supposed lack of talent.
• And we are in in unprecedented times – maybe IU or Texas Tech just totally breaks the mold.
• For outlier Indiana, this data is why some still question them – especially in the South where they are more in tune with recruiting rankings in the first place.  And is why Indiana needs to beat a top SEC team for the South to truly believe.
• But it also speaks to the amazing coaching job that Curt Cignetti and his staff has done. 
• Many people are now citing Indiana for what is possible, which is kind of unfair I believe since they are doing things that may not be able to be duplicated.
• The bottom line is recruiting, and talent still matters obviously but going forward it’s going to be harder to evaluate teams’ talent levels due to the transfer portal and thus it’s going to be way harder to project how good teams will be year to year.
• It also means the pre-season AP Top 25 rankings are going to be worse and worse each year as a predictive means.

Big Jeff’s General Insights: Most important bowls for the Big Ten in order and why.  

• Most of these rankings are based on the impact of the game on the perceptions of the Big Ten.
• #1 most important is Indiana in Quarters (vs Bama/OK) – (1) if the #1 team in the nation loses in their first playoff game it puts into question how good was the Big Ten all along
• (2) I live in Atlanta – you would think after winning at Top 5 Oregon and beating #1 Ohio State that everyone now is convinced Indiana is a legit Top 5 team
• my sense though from my friends here is they need to beat an SEC blueblood or Top 5 SEC team to prove they are really Top 5.
• #2 important is Ohio State in Quarters (vs Miami/Texas A&M) – because they were ranked so high, similar to IU it would look extremely bad for the conference if OSU lost their first game,
• This game is magnified even more if OSU plays the SEC’s Texas A&M vs Miami to win the game.
• In the South, the belief that Ohio State is the real deal is already there, it is not questioned like the belief in Indiana is.
• #3 important is Oregon in Quarters (vs Texas Tech) – of course #3 since the playoffs matters most and Oregon does need to prove themselves given the loss to Ohio State last year and loss to Indiana.
• #4 important is Iowa +5.5 (FanDuel) vs Vanderbilt – of course because this is vs SEC but if #23 ranked Iowa beats #14 Vandy it’s huge for the Big Ten vs SEC perceptions.  
• And importantly combats perception the Big Ten is not nearly as deep as the SEC.
• #5 important is Illinois +2.5 vs former Top 25 SEC team Tennessee – again, an Illinois win, especially as an underdog signals the Big Ten’s mid-tier teams are just as good and if not better than the SEC teams.
• Interesting this line was Illinois as a 5.5 point dog and now it’s 2.5
• #6 important is Michigan +7.5 vs #13 Texas – I only rank this lower than the Iowa and Illinois vs SEC matchups because of the coaching change if Michigan loses, I don’t think the Big Ten gets dinged as much on this one, though it’s very important Michigan looks competitive.
• Line was -5.5. but has moved to 7.5 given the coaching situation.
• If Michigan can win though, it would be huge for the Big Ten as it would also be a big surprise.
• #7 is Oregon -21.5 vs James Madison – I don’t have this higher since it would just be a total shock if JMU can challenge the Ducks.
• #8 important is #16 USC -5.5 vs Big 12’s TCU – would be a bad look for a Big Ten ranked team to lose to an unranked TCU.
• #9 important is Penn State +3.5 vs Clemson – this one is crazy.  Both these teams were expected to compete for a title so if you said in pre-season this was a bowl game nobody would be surprised but in the Pinstripe Bowl in NY is a shock.
• #10 is Nebraska as 16.5 point dog vs #15 Utah because the Utes are ranked so this one has some weight to it but expectations are low for the Huskers.
• #11 I will say Minnesota favored by 2.5 vs New Mexico
• And #12 and last is Northwestern -10.5 vs C. Michigan.
• But again, how Indiana does I feel is most important for the Big Ten.  And then any SEC vs Big Ten matchup is by far the most important for conference perceptions.