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What level of recruiting is needed to win a National Championship? I have been saying for years that you need to consistently have top 10 recruiting classes to win a college football championship, but I’ve never actually cranked the numbers – until now.
College football recruiting is a complicated subject. Many feel it is very unreliable and way overrated. Others think it is likely the number one factor in helping decide which teams will win National Championships.
I decided to look at the past 20 National Champions to see what the data said so we don’t have to rely on varied personal opinions that aren’t based on facts.
Also, for reference the first link below is my article from March 27 summarizing the most recent 10 Recruiting class rankings for all Big Ten teams and putting each team into categories. The second link below is a summary Podcast from March tied to the same subject.
Historical Big Ten Football Recruiting Rankings: Where does your team rank?
REAL TRUTH: Big Ten Football Recruiting – Who’s Overrated? Who’s Over Performing?
Key Summary Insights
The data was quite revealing and can be summarized with these key Big Jeff’s Insights on National Championship Level Recruiting:
- 16 of the past 20 National Champions (80%) had an average 4-year recruiting average national rank of 7.8 or better (clearly in the Top 10)
- 19 of 20 National Champions also had at least 2 of the prior 4 years in the Top 10 in national recruiting (the lone exception was 2016 Clemson)
- The 4-year recruiting average national rank of all 20 National Champions was 5.9
- The 4 schools that did not average in the Top 10 in recruiting still recruited at a high level and were all at least in the Top 15 (12.3, 10.8, 12.8, and 14.8).
- The 4 teams that did not have a 4-year recruiting average of 7.8 or better (listed below) all had one thing in common: an Elite level quarterback that played Elite during the Championship season and was drafted at worst #12 in the first round when they became draft eligible
- 2023 Michigan (JJ McCarthy #12 pick to Minnesota)
- 2018 Clemson (Trevor Lawrence #1 pick to Jacksonville)
- 2016 Clemson (Deshaun Watson #12 pick to Houston)
- 2011 Auburn (Cam Newton #1 pick to Carolina)
Below, I go into the data and draw insights in much greater detail but it’s clear that strong, consistent, top 10 like recruiting has been close to a “must have” for any team to win a Championship. Without that, you better have an absolute stud at quarterback playing at an elite level.
Side Note: I held a Podcast on The Big Ten Huddle on July 10 about “Ten Surprising Truths and Lies about Big Ten football”. Link Below.
It caused a mini firestorm based on two of the “TRUTH” items listed which were:
- Nebraska is considered a football blue blood but under the current college football system they will NOT get back to truly performing like a blue blood and can’t win a National Title. TRUTH.
- The Big Ten only has only 5 of their 18 teams who can win a National Championship under the current college football system. They are Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, and USC. TRUTH
In retrospect, for Nebraska I should not have used the term “can’t” concerning a national title since that implies it’s impossible. I just think it is highly unlikely due to my belief of needing consistent Top 10 recruiting which is very difficult to achieve.
The same reasoning holds for why I am saying I think only 5 teams in the Big Ten have a reasonable chance at winning a Natty within the current college system. Anything is possible, I just have major doubts based on the data.
Recruiting Data for the Last 20 National Champions (2005 to 2024)
Using the 247 Sports Composite Rankings which averages the 4 major recruiting service rankings, I looked at the past 20 National Champs and their average national recruiting rankings for the 4 most recent classes leading up their National Title.
For example, for the 2024 National Champion Ohio State Buckeyes the 4 would include the 2024, 2023, 2022, and 2021 recruiting classes (which ranked 5, 4, 4, and 2 respectively) which averaged out to a 3.8 four-year ranking.
- Champion teams in RED font are the four exceptions to having Top 10 avg 4-year recruiting classes.
These 20 National Champions had a 4-year national recruiting average rank of 5.9. And there were only 4 Champions who did not have at least a 7.8, 4-year average, which I will talk about more later.
Alabama of course under Nick Saban was a recruiting juggernaut and had two champions during their peak in both 2017 and 2015 that had a perfect 1.0 recruiting average over 4 years meaning all 4 of their prior classes where #1 in the nation. Yes, Saban indeed is the GOAT and he won 6 total titles at Alabama over these 20 years.
Georgia’s two titles from 2022 and 2021 were almost equally as impressive with classes averaging 2.5 and 2.0 respectively. Urban Meyer’s two Florida titles from 2008 and 2006 both had 5.0 average ranked classes. Florida State’s 2013 title was no fluke with classes averaging out to a 6.3 ranking.
LSU is interesting though since their two titles in 2019 under Joe Burrow and 2007 for Les Miles had teams averaging 7.3 and 7.8 respectively which is more on the high end for this data.
Another revealing fact is for 16 of the 20 champions the worst 4-year average was 7.8 from LSU’s 2007 team who was an unusual champion with two losses (12-2) including to an unranked Arkansas team.
Specific to the Big Ten, Ohio State’s most recent 2024 Champions averaged a 3.8 ranked class and the 2014 Champs under Urban Meyer averaged 4.0. Michigan’s 2023 title holders averaged just a 12.3 ranking.
Here is how the 20 titles broke out by major conference:
- SEC: 13
- Big 10: 3
- ACC: 3
- Big 12: 1
- Pac 12: 0
Side Note #2: Yes, we Big Ten fans like to complain about SEC bias in the media, but it was built from winning a boat load of titles. But it’s also why the Big Ten winning the last two while beating 3 different SEC teams in the playoffs on the way to those titles is such a BIG DEAL. Big 10 supporters believe the power dynamic in college football has changed and the Big 10 is now true rivals of the SEC, and some feel might be better.
Yet another thing that stands out from the data of the last 20 champions is how all but one team (Clemson from 2016) had at least 2 of the previous 4 recruiting cycles ranked in the Top 10 nationally. This demonstrates when I say you need to be a consistent Top 10 recruiter it does not mean every year but does mean you should be Top 10 at least half of the time.
Here is how it breaks down for the past 20 National Champions in national recruiting:
- 9 of 20 were in the Top 10 in 4 of 4 years
- 6 of 20 were in the Top 10 in 3 of 4 years
- 4 of 20 were in the Top 10 in 2 of 4 years
- 1 of 20 were in the Top 10 in 1 of 4 years
This says if your team never has a Top 10 recruiting class, then your team is very unlikely to win a National Title and even if they do it once over 4 years it is still unlikely. My theory on that is Top 10 classes are more likely to have those few superstar/elite players that are true difference makers in helping win a title. Think WR Jeremiah Smith this past year for Ohio State or RB Derrick Henry when he played for Alabama. And of course, that level of recruiting provides the depth you need to make a title run.
How Can we Explain the 4 National Champions who did not have Average Top 10 Recruiting?
Many will point to the 4 national champions who did not have a Top 10 recruiting average as proof I am wrong. They would be correct BUT there is one specific aspect of all 4 of those teams that explains how they were able to overcome not having Top 10 average recruiting.
As my summary to start out said, they all had elite level quarterbacks that played elite during the championship season and were drafted at worst #12 in the first round when they became draft eligible. If fact, two of them were selected #1 overall in the first round. See Table 2 below for this list.
Let’s briefly look at each of these teams and their quarterbacks.
2010 Auburn
Auburn came what seemed out of nowhere in 2010 to capture the National Championship going 14-0 behind Florida transfer quarterback Cam Newton who also won the Heisman Trophy that year.
Auburn had a 4-year recruiting average of 14.8 which is by far the worst of any of the past 20 champions, but they overcame it because frankly Newton played literally like SUPERMAN that season completing 66% of his passes for 2,854 yards with 30 TDs and just 7 interceptions. More amazing though he was a wrecking ball rushing for 1,473 yards, at 5.6 yards/carry and 20 rushing TDs. In all he had 4,327 total yards and accounted for 50 TDs.
It was one of the greatest college football seasons of all time and in no surprise, Newton was selected #1 overall by the Carolina Panthers in the 2011 NFL Draft.
2016 Clemson
This was Dabo Swinney’s first national championship as the 14-1 Tigers won behind the elite play of Junor quarterback Deshaun Watson who had a 67% completion rate and threw for 4,593 yards with 41 TDs and 17 interceptions. He also had 629 yards rushing and 9 rushing TDs for 5,222 total yards and 50 total TDs.
He also played elite in the 35-31 upset of Alabama in the championship game throwing for 420 yards with 3 TDs while making many clutch plays and was selected #12 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft to Houston.
Clemson’s 12.8 average 4-year recruiting ranking was the second worst of the 20 champions and they were the only champion with just one recruiting class in the Top 10.
In addition to the play of Watson, I believe another huge factor for Clemson in winning this title and another in 2018 was they had likely the best Defensive Coordinator in the nation in Brent Venables who produced elite defenses both seasons.
2018 Clemson
Dabo’s second title included an unbeaten 15-0 season and was led by true freshman QB Trevor Lawrence who completed 65% of his passes for 3,280 yards, 30 TDs and amazingly only 4 interceptions. Two years later Lawrence was selected #1 overall by Jacksonville in the 2021 NFL Draft.
This second Clemson champion team had a 4-year recruiting average barely outside the Top 10 at 10.8 but also had 2 of 4 classes in the Top 10.
2023 Michigan
This was Michigan’s first title since 1997 (26 years) and the 15-0 Wolverines were led by Junior JJ McCarthy who completed 72% of his passes with 22 TDs and only 4 interceptions. He was a model of efficiency for Michigan that season and played really well in the biggest games leading to being selected with the 10th overall pick to Minnesota in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Michigan had the 3rd worst 4-year average recruiting rank of 12.3 but did have 2 years of Top 10 recruiting leading up to their title. The Connor Stalions sign stealing scandal certainly could have played a role in Michigan’s title run helping explain winning it all despite not having elite recruiting but there is little doubt Michigan had the kind of talent you need to win a title based on a program best 13 players selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Bottom line is if you don’t have Top 10 level recruiting talent you better have a really special, high first round level NFL quarterback playing for you like these 4 teams had, who also play great in the biggest moments.
Recruiting Data and Prognosis for the 2025 Big Ten Favorites
What does this data potentially mean for the 2025 Big Ten season and especially for Penn State who most prognosticators feel is the favorite? Table 3 below shows the recruiting stats for them and the other Big Ten teams projected to start the season in the Top 25.
Penn State actually has only the 4th best average 4-year national recruiting rank at 13.0 in the Big Ten, and which would rank second worst vs the prior 20 National Champions. They also have only 1 of 4 years in the Top 10 as their 2022 class was ranked #6 and included the graduated Abdul Carter, but also had QB Drew Allar, star running backs Nick Singleton and Katron Allen, and star lineman Dani Dennis-Sutton.
These stats put them in border line territory in having the depth of talent needed to win multiple playoffs games for a title. BUT, they do have the highly rated quarterback in Drew Allar who could end up being a high first round NFL draft pick and if he has an elite year at quarterback and plays great in clutch moments it might be enough.
And maybe Penn State’s success in the transfer portal, including bringing in three new highly regarded wide receivers, means they and other teams with portal success can win it with not quite top 10 like recruiting classes to provide their base talent that the transfers can supplement.
Beyond Penn State, Ohio State is first in the Big Ten with a 4.0 average 4-year recruiting rank so the raw talent is there but it would be very unusual to win a title with a first year starting QB (likely to beJulian Sayin). Oregon is second with a 8.0 average 4-year national recruiting rank but they also are starting a young QB in Dante Moore likely limiting their ceiling. And Michigan averages 12.0 in 4-year recruiting but have a likely true freshman starter in Bryce Underwood making it extremely unlikely they can make a title run.
How about our Cinderella’s Illinois and Indiana? The stats say “No Way” as Illinois has just a 44.8 average 4-year recruiting rank and Indiana is worse at a 51.3 average. I believe these teams won’t nearly have the depth needed to win 3 or 4 playoff games.
Could The Need to Recruit in the Top 10 to Win a Title Change Moving Forward?
But Big Jeff, you’re an idiot because this is “old data” and things will be much different going forward due to the continued impact of the transfer portal and the new rules of revenue sharing with the players that will help level the playing field.
And yes, I did get several people telling me on X that I was an idiot for my opinion on this topic.
It’s certainly possible the playing field will be leveled enough so many more teams can potentially win a title, but I have major doubts.
First, we have had NIL for several years and the current 2026 class Top 10 rankings has mostly all the same usual suspects. See Table 4 below.
USC is the lone surprise on this list because recently their recruiting has struggled but they are currently ranked #1 and since they are a football blue blood and frequent top recruiter through the years, this is more where they should be than a true surprise. All the other teams are traditional powers with 8 of the 10 not surprisingly coming from the powerful SEC and Big 10 who are more dominant than ever over the ACC and Big 12 no matter what Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark thinks.
I know some would say we haven’t been under the system long enough to see big changes but I think fans underestimate how difficult it will be to crack into the Top 10 or Top 12 and so I don’t expect big changes to the teams ranked highest in recruiting.
Second, I think in general most fans don’t understand how difficult it is to win a Natty. You have to be really good AND often get a little lucky. There is a reason since 1970 (55 years), there are only two teams who have won National Championships who were at the time in the Big Ten for five total championships – Ohio State three times (2002, 2014 and 2024) and Michigan twice (1997, 2023). They both are the bluest of Blue Bloods in the Big Ten.
USC‘s and Nebraska‘s titles since 1970 are in a different category since they were not in the Big Ten at the time. In fact, given how tough the Big Ten is now with the addition of the 4 best teams by far from the Pac 12, it makes it more difficult because unless your team wins the Big Ten, they are not going to get a favorable seed in the playoffs making their potential title path even tougher.
Third, I feel people are totally underestimating the level of depth that is going to be required to go on a 3 or 4 game playoff run to win a 12 or 16 team playoff. I agree many teams can improve their recruiting enough to crack into the Top 20 and that with an expanded field many more teams can and should make the playoffs. In fact, I strongly believe all 18 Big Ten teams can make the playoffs.
But making the playoffs and winning it all are two VERY different things. In the new environment a team can pay big money to sign a few 4 or even 5 star recruits and pick up other key players in the transfer portal but that won’t change that to have the depth you need to win a title it will need to come from multiple Top 10 like recruiting classes. I don’t believe that dynamic will change much going forward.
Maybe instead of Top 10 it needs to be consistent Top 12 (or possibly top 15 classes) but either way, it still will require high-level consistent recruiting or having that special, elite quarterback. Without that, a team maybe can make the playoffs and pull off one big upset but to string together 3 or 4 playoff games will take Top 10 like talent and depth.
Also, look at it this way. The 2024 Champion Ohio State Buckeyes were super talented and still lost two regular season games, which does show I think the greater depth of teams in today’s game. However, any team looking to win a Championship and winning 3 to 4 playoff games will need at least similar talent to Ohio State to make that kind of run. Do you see your team truly achieving that level of talent?
For example, I am a 1990 Indiana graduate and despite Curt Cignetti changing the culture of the program and expecting much more winning in the future, I still don’t believe Indiana will get to the level of talent like an Ohio State to win it all. The same holds for the majority of the Big Ten. I think there will need to be even more changes to level the playing field more. BUT, I hope I am wrong. It’s just an opinion. It’s not personal.
Finally, for your reference below is a Table showing the 2026 class national recruiting rankings of all Big Ten teams as of July 15, 2025. I am not going to make detailed comments on this since we will likely cover this in a future article and podcast but it’s revealing that the top teams in the rankings are the traditional powers. But, it’s still too early in this cycle to draw too strong of conclusions since some team’s total number of commits is pretty low.
