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With back-to-back National Titles, the health of Big Ten football is probably as good as it has been in my lifetime. And at 57 years, Big Jeff is OLD! From 2006 to 2022, the SEC totally dominated college football, winning 13 of 17 National Titles with the sole exception for the Big Ten being Ohio State’s 2014 team led by RB Ezekiel Elliott. But now the Big Ten has won the last two from Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State in 2024.
And in the first year of the expanded 12-team playoffs the Big Ten had four teams, which was the most of any other conference. All this means we now can have a legitimate discussion about which conference is the best in the country between the SEC and the Big 10. And the consensus is both the ACC and Big 12 are far behind these two conferences in recruiting, generating NFL talent and on field results.
It’s with this backdrop; I provide my Top 10 Storylines for 2025 Big Ten Football.
Because there is a debate on which conference will be best in 2025 and beyond, most of my storylines will center around that debate. And the three biggest variables I feel in defining which conference is best are which conference’s team ends up winning the National Championship, which conference puts the most teams in the playoffs, and how well those teams play and advance in the playoffs.
Note: Here is my previous article on the recruiting level needed to win a title: National Championship Level Recruiting: What it looks like in College Football. – Big Jeff’s Football and a Link to my Podcast on The Big Ten Huddle on the same topic: The Big Ten Huddle Podcast: Do Recruiting Rankings Prevent Penn State’s Championship Hopes? | Big Jeff’s Insights
I know the potential sanctions from the Michigan sign stealing issue is still out there, but I am leaving that alone as it continues to drag along.
So here we go with a listing of my Top 10 followed by a more detailed explanation of each below:
- Can the Big Ten get another 4 teams in the playoffs, and win a 3rd straight Natty which might catapult them to truly be considered better than the SEC?
- Is it really “Natty or Bust” this year for Penn State and James Franklin like it was for Ohio State last year?
- Will Ryan Day and Ohio State break the Michigan 4-game losing streak and repeat as National Champions?
- Can Oregon and Dan Lanning break through and win the Ducks first national title?
- Is new 5 star QB Bryce Underwood the next Trevor Lawrence making Michigan title contenders now and proving Sherrone Moore is the right man for the job?
- Is Illinois as Good as Brett Bielema says they are and make the playoffs?
- Will Indiana and Curt Cignetti threaten to make the Playoffs again proving they are “for real” and have changed the program’s culture?
- Which Big Ten teams could surprise like last years Indiana team and make the playoffs? Best candidates: Iowa, Neb, MN, USC and Wash. (none are Top 25).
- Can two Big Ten blueblood USC and Nebraska start acting like one and take positive steps to show they will be a consistent Top 15team/playoff threat?
- What Big Ten coaches will get fired this year? Four viable candidates include (in order): Maryland/Locksley, Wisconsin/Fickell, Northwestern/Braun, and USC/Riley
1) Can the Big Ten get another 4 teams in the playoffs, and win a 3rd straight Natty which might catapult them to truly be considered better than the SEC?
Defining who is the best football conference should rely more on who is the National Champion and how many playoff teams a conference has and how do they perform. The depth within each conference should probably matter more than it does but the difficulty is how to determine that depth given the lack of enough cross-conference games to evaluate that.
Plus, in the past you could evaluate conferences based on cross-conference bowl game results but that has totally changed with all the player bowl opt outs to protect themselves from injuries for the NFL draft and players entering the portal before bowl games to find a new school. All this has minimized the value of bowl results not tied to playoff games.
For all conferences and the Big Ten, that means the Playoffs are by far the primary driver of conference perceptions. If the Big Ten can once again get 4 teams in and ideally not only win games but beat the SEC in head-to-head matchups, PLUS win their third straight National Title, it could be enough for many to agree the Big 10 truly has surpassed the SEC.
2) Is it really “Natty or Bust” this year for Penn State and James Franklin like it was for Ohio State last year?
Beyond Las Vegas, Penn State looks like the most cited favorite Big Ten team to win the National Championship. (Example: FanDuel has Ohio State as the favorites at +650 to win the Natty, with Penn State 2nd at +750). Like Ohio State last year, some are calling it “Natty or Bust” for Penn State.
The question is what does “bust” mean here? Does it mean the Nittany Lion’s season can only be defined as a success if they win it all? Or if PSU doesn’t win it with all that experienced talent, does it mean James Franklin clearly is not the right coach to bring a title to Happy Valley? Or something else?
Given how hard it is to win a title, I felt the Natty or Bust theme for Ohio State was false last year, like it’s mostly false for Penn State this year. If Ohio State would have beat Michigan last year, then made a playoff run beating one or two SEC teams but did not win the title, I still would have called that a very successful season – far from a bust. Once they lost to Michigan though, it really did magnify the need to at the very LEAST make it to the title game to not consider the season a big disappointment.
I feel it’s similar for Penn State this year. If they win at Ohio State, for Franklin’s only second win against the Buckeyes, and make the playoffs and beat at least one other Top 5 rated team, then I think it will be looked at as damn successful for Franklin. That will show some good progress that could be parlayed into better recruiting and portal success, enabling Penn State to more consistently compete for championships.
On the other hand, if PSU loses to Ohio State, wins the Big Ten, but flames out in the playoffs, then I feel that will not be looked at as great success. Playoffs wins matter more than Big Ten championships.
3) Will Ryan Day and Ohio State break the Michigan 4-game losing streak and repeat as National Champions?
If Ohio State were to repeat as National Champions it would be the first time a Big Ten team did that in 59 years, since Michigan State was co-champions in the 1965 and 1966 seasons. Nebraska did it in 1994 and 1995 as part of the Big 8 conference.
This would be HUGE for the Big Ten with their third straight title and would also certainly catapult Ryan Day over Georgia’s Kirby Smart to be considered the current best coach in college football. Failing that, Ohio State is a great candidate to make the playoffs and has the talent to be favorites over all SEC teams except potentially Texas and Georgia.
Ohio State’s regular season opener hosting likely pre-season #1 Texas from the SEC is also very important for conference perceptions, but I would argue any playoff wins over the SEC would mean even more.
And despite winning the 2024 National Title making Ryan Day an Ohio State legend and “made man”, he still will have tremendous pressure on him to break his 4-game losing streak vs Michigan including last year’s shocker in Columbus as a 20+ point favorite. At this point Michigan is in Ryan Day’s head, and it has become a mental thing for the Buckeyes as they have got sucked into trying to play Michigan’s physical based game vs. doing what they do best in aggressively leveraging their elite playmakers and superior talent.
Winning a title means more to the Buckeyes, as it should for any team, but make no mistake beating the hated Wolverines is still a main goal each year and failure to do that is painful. In fact, with a 1-4 record the only thing Day has not done well is beat Michigan. His legacy will even shine greater if he gets it done this year.
4) Can Oregon and Dan Lanning break through and win the Ducks first national title?
Is Oregon the best program in the nation to not have won the National Championship? I personally think so. Other candidates include Virginia Tech, West Virginia, South Carolina and even Wisconsin.
But I must rank the Ducks ahead of the others given they have played in two National Title games (2010 and 2014) and then most recently given their strong recruiting success that includes a national 5-year average of 7.2 including ranking 3rd and 5th in the last two classes.
Oregon has been acting like a football blueblood in almost all ways except winning that elusive championship. They have a strong, young coaching staff led by Dan Lanning, ability to recruit nationally across all position groups, amazing modern facilities, and an intimidating home stadium environment.
Plus, they have a strong history of winning, the financial resources needed to attract and retain great players in this current portal/NIL era and are looked at as a very trendy program with all their cool uniform combos.
It may be hard to win it all this year with a young, inexperienced QB in Dante Moore, but the Ducks are close and I believe will win one within the next 5 years.
5) Is new 5-star QB Bryce Underwood the next Trevor Lawrence making Michigan title contenders now and proving Sherrone Moore is the right man for the job?
Coming off their first title since 1997 last year, Michigan had an up and down year going from a team that most of their fan base questioned if they had the right coach in Sherrone Moore to one by season’s end and in the off season had Wolverines fans feeling extremely hopeful.
The upset of Ohio State, big bowl win over Alabama and the off-season signing of star QB Bryce Underwood put plenty of wind in their sales.
Now the question is if Underwood is good enough right now not just to start right away but maybe even significantly raise the level of Michigan’s offense, that combined with their always Top 10 ranked defense can put Michigan in the playoffs and win several games.
The last 20 years the only freshman QB to take their team to a title is Trevor Lawrence of Clemson in 2018. A big difference is Lawrence had a talented WR group to throw to, but Michigan’s strong overall recruiting says good efficient quarterback play could turn them into a Top 10 team. Vegas feels Michigan’s upside is high with the 4th best National Title odds in the Big Ten (+3600).
If Underwood is as good as advertised, it’s likely that will confirm Sherrone Moore was the right selection to take over for Jim Harbaugh.
6) Is Illinois as Good as Brett Bielema says they are and make the playoffs?
If I was starting a new business and needed to choose a Big Ten coach to lead my Sales team, Brett Bielema would be my man. Nobody has carried the banner for both Illinois and the Big Ten more than Brett has this off-season. He loves being vocal and is not afraid to tout the strength of his team and the conference.
Bielema has been active on college football media stations promoting Illinois as a top Big Ten team and playoff contender. And why not since they are coming off a 10-3 season, are first in the Big Ten in returning production at 75%, have an experienced and efficient 3rd year starting QB returning in Luke Altmyer, and have a manageable schedule ranked 2nd easiest in the Big Ten and don’t play Oregon, Penn State and Michigan.
So Bielema’s confidence makes sense. BUT. “Not so fast my friend” as Lee Corso liked to say. Illinois played more like an 8-5 team last year than 10-3. The Illini was helped by going 5-1 in one score games last year including needing to win in OT to a bad Purdue team. Their total offense ranked 92nd in the nation (of 134 teams) and defense was only a little better at 68th in the nation.
With their weak schedule, Illinois likely needs to go 10-2 to make the playoffs and to do that will require all that returning production to play significantly better than last year.
7) Will Indiana and Curt Cignetti threaten to make the Playoffs again proving they are “for real” and have changed the program’s culture under?
Indiana is the losingest college football program in Division 1 history and before last year’s 11-2 season they hadn’t won more than 8 games since 1967. In fact, in the prior 30 years before last season Indiana only had 2 winning Big 10 conference seasons (2019 & 2020). The Hoosiers have simply been the most consistently worst Big Ten team.
All that made last year’s memorable season and first ever playoff appearance under first year coach Curt Cignetti that much more surprising. Indiana was helped by the easiest schedule in the Big Ten both overall and within conference games as their conference opponents had only a 28-53 Big Ten record, and of 9 Big Ten games only Michigan (at 5-4) and Ohio State (7-2) had winning Big Ten records.
That is why so many across the nation felt Indiana’s success was all about their weak schedule and questioned how deserving they were for a playoff spot. But left out of most conversations was how thoroughly the Hoosiers were beating teams leading the nation in scoring margin and all, but one win was by at least double digits.
Perceptions are slow to change which is why this year is so important for Indiana. I believe it’s vital they go at least 8-4 which will help “prove” last year was no fluke among football experts but also to show recruits and high school programs that Indiana’s football program really has changed their culture led by Cignetti, which should lead to the better recruiting IU needs to consistently win and stay in the top half of the Big Ten.
8) Which Big Ten teams could surprise like last year’s Indiana team and make the playoffs? Best candidates among non-top 25: Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, USC and Washington.
A common question has been, “Who will be this year’s Indiana?” However, that’s unlikely since Indiana improved from 2-10 to a historic turnaround with a new coaching staff. Realistically, only 1-11 Purdue could mirror Indiana’s transformation. All the other schools went at least 4-8 last year (Maryland and Northwestern).
But which team could really surprise and pass expectations and possibly make the playoffs? That likely will require a team to go 10-2 to make the 12-team field. For that there are many candidates and looking outside the teams likely to be ranked in the pre-season Top 25, I think the most viable include USC (7.5 O/U according to FanDuel), Nebraska (7.5), Iowa (7.5), Washington (7.5), and Minnesota (6.5).
All these teams have significant question marks but also good upside. Of these 5 teams USC has the best FanDuel National Title odds at +7500 and the best 4-year national recruiting average of 23rd, followed closely by Nebraska at a recruiting average of 25.
All the lower Big Ten teams have FanDuel over/under odds of at least 5.5 wins or worse including Rutgers, Wisconsin, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern and Purdue. Their odds aren’t great to make a breakthrough but based on what Indiana did you never know.
9) Can two Big Ten bluebloods USC and Nebraska start acting like one and take positive steps to show they will be a consistent Top 15 team/playoff threat?
The consensus is the Big Ten has 5 blueblood football programs. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC and Nebraska. Penn State has mostly been acting like blueblood, but USC has been very up and down and hasn’t consistently played like a consistent national power since Pete Carroll’s tenure from 2001 to 2009, that included two national titles.
Nebraska has been missing in action most of this entire century with their last AP Top 10 finish coming all the way back in 2001 under Frank Solich with a 8th place ranking and 11-2 record.
Both schools have coaches who have proven D1 success with USC’s Lincoln Riley finishing in the Top 10 all 5 of his years at Oklahoma that included 3 playoff appearances and an overall 55-10 (.846) record. After going a strong 11-3 in his first year at USC, he has gone a disappointing 15-11 his past two seasons making some believe he is on the hot seat.
But things could be looking up for USC as they have a new General Manager and support staff for Riley and currently have the #1 or #2 recruiting class in the nation for 2026. USC has a reasonable schedule in 2025 not playing either Ohio State or Penn State and has 5 home Big Ten games.
Given USC has access to high level local talent in California, can recruit nationally and has shown an ability to recruit in the Top 10 (4 of the past 10 years), I see no reason they can’t be a consistent playoff threat under Riley.
It will be more difficult for Nebraska, but they do have a proven coach in Matt Rhule who turned Temple into a Top 25 team and took Baylor from 1-11 in his first year to 11-3 by year 3 and a final #13 ranking. They also have 5-star quarterback Dylan Raiola entering his second year when most elite QBs take a big leap in production and if he does combined with how Rhule’s year 3 in his past two jobs has seen an increase in wins by 4 (Temple from 6-6 to 10-4 and Baylor from 7-6 to 11-3) which if Nebraska duplicates would take the Huskers from 7-6 to more like 11-2.
With that jump Nebraska would make the playoffs. But to consistently challenge for the playoffs the Huskers need to improve their recruiting which currently ranks 59th in the nation and 17th in the Big Ten with only 12 verbal commits.
10) What Big Ten coaches will get fired this year? Four viable candidates include (in order) Maryland/Locksley, Wisconsin/Fickell, Northwestern/Braun, and USC/Riley.
Last year only Purdue’s Ryan Walters lost his job after a disaster 1-11 season. This year, I feel like there are likely only four coaches who may be at risk. All the other coaches are either proven or too early in their tenures. As with any coaching decision, a key consideration for all these schools is if they make a move, do they strongly believe they can get another coach who will do better.
Mike Locksley admitted he lost the locker room last year in Maryland’s 4-8 season and if that happens again and they have a poor record how do you keep him? I put him as #1 most likely.
Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell is second most likely given Wisconsin did not make a bowl for the first time since 2001and his failed move to an Air Raid type offense and 12-13 overall record has been a consensus disaster.
This year the Badgers may have the toughest schedule in the nation but since the current AD Chris McIntosh hired Fickell and is still at the school I think what matters most is not their record but how competitive the team looks, and they need to show strong signs of improvement on both offense and defense.
I have Northwestern’s David Braun third after a 4-8 campaign in 2024 in which they looked inept on offense (130th in nation) and a middle of the road defense (56th). But he did win Big Ten coach of the year honors in Year 1 going a surprising 8-5 and the Wildcats will have their new state of the art stadium opening next season so I suspect they won’t want to make a move unless this season is a disaster.
USC is fourth but given the strong start of their new support staff in building the current #1 recruiting class in the 2026 cycle and large buyout for Lincoln Riley I doubt they will make a move.
The two other storylines that just missed the cut are:
11) Will new UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava jump start the program and prove DeShaun Foster is the right man for the job?
12) Will the Big Ten get their wish and the 4-4-2-2-1-3 Model as the next playoff format?
With 18 Big Ten teams now, the storylines are bigger and better than ever, and I expect this season could match last year as one of the most memorable ever.
What Big Ten Teams Should Strive to Be – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Ten Team Conference Record by Decade and 8 Key Insights – Big Jeff’s Football
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