The Big Ten has expanded to 18 teams in 2024 and with the new 12-team college football playoffs, this season might be the most exciting ever for the conference. Each week Big Jeff’s Football will provide the Big Ten football Top 10 storylines that are most impactful as the teams battle to make the expanded playoff field or a bowl game. Let’s get into the Week 1 Big Ten football top storylines …
1. Big Ten off to a great start going 17-1 in Week 1.
In college football, Week 1 is always so compelling because there are no pre-season games and fans expectations for their teams to hit the ground running are almost always unrealistic. This leads to plenty of overreactions to what fans see in Week 1. The good news for Big Ten fans is you mostly saw good things Week 1 with the conference going an impressive 17-1 and raising the hopes of many teams.
The only team to lose was Minnesota with a missed last second FG that would have won the game but losing to an always well-coached Mack Brown and Power 4 team North Carolina 19-17 was disappointing but offers no reason to panic. The Big Ten went 2-1 vs Power 4 teams that included Penn State’s impressive 34-12 dominant win at the Big 12’s West Virginia Mountaineers but most important was the 27-20 win for USC over #13 ranked SEC power LSU.
Big Ten goes 17-1 with new coaches, QBs in Week 1’s full non-conference slate (msn.com)
2. Penn State’s offense and QB Drew Allar looked explosive raising hopes for playoffs and maybe more.
Many college football analysts felt West Virginia was a legitimate threat to beat Penn State on Saturday. But Penn State went into Morgantown and dominated the game winning 34-12 piling up 457 total yards including 235 passing yards from Drew Allar who went 11-17 for 216 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Coming into the season, it was a given the Penn State Nittany Lions would have a great defense and they did not disappoint holding the Mountaineers to just 246 total yards and only 85 yards rushing at 2.3 yards/rush. But what was in question is if the offense, under new Offensive Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, could become more explosive under their talented QB Allar to enable the Nittany Lions to challenge the top teams in the Big Ten like Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon.
Early returns from Game 1 are absolutely yes Penn State can be more explosive which not only makes their hopes to make the college playoffs for the first time look good, but maybe even win the Big Ten and make a long run in the playoffs. Allar’s completions included a first quarter 50-yard TD pass to Harrison Wallace III and 55-yard completion to Omari Evans in the second quarter.
Allar had very few of these long completions in his first year at QB for Penn State in 2023. And running backs Nick Singleton (114 yards) and Kaytron Allen looked sharp with PSU averaging 5.3 yards/carry. This all rightfully should raise PSU fans hopes this season.
3. USC’s maligned defense plays well looking legit and making them a Big Ten title contender.
Even going back to his time at Oklahoma, the defense has always been what has held back Lincoln Riley’s teams and it has been no different in his two years so far for the USC Trojans. Under former defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, USC had been disappointing and in 2023 their scoring defense at 34.4 points per game ranked 118th in D1 football and their total defense at 433 yards per game ranking 116th. At a blue-blood program like USC, those stats are flat embarrassing and give you no chance to win a conference title or make the playoffs.
In comes Riley’s hiring of former UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who helped the Bruins drastically improve their defense in his only year at Westwood in 2023, and it looks like it has instantly made USC’s defense a much more fundamentally sound and more physical unit as evidenced by USC’s huge opening win over #13 LSU at the Vegas Kickoff Classic 27-20.
While the Trojans gave up 421 yards to LSU in the game, it was against what many think will be the best offensive line in college football with two offensive tackles expected to potentially be picked in the first round of the next NFL draft. LSU managed just 117 rushing yards at 4.5 yards/carry.
A worry for USC was if they could withstand the physicality of the Big Ten but early indications are they can and combined with Lincoln Riley’s always potent offense led by new QB Miller Moss who went 27-36 for 378 yards and 1 TD, expectations for USC will now go up significantly with the Trojans considered a legitimate Big Ten title contender.
4. Dylan Raiola looks like QB Nebraska needs to break through and make a bowl for first time since 2016.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers going 7 years without making a single bowl game. It’s hard to believe even writing that. Five-star true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola went 19-27 for 238 yards with 2 TDs and no interceptions in a 40-7 win over UTEP looking every bit the part of a good Big Ten quarterback in his very first game. That has to make Nebraska fans giddy with excitement thinking of the future possibilities not just for this year but in the future as Matt Rhule looks for a break-through in Year 2 in Lincoln.
But the good news was much more than Raiola as the Huskers had a 30 to 12 advantage in first downs and a 507 to 205 edge in total yards. Plus, only 35 yards in penalties and maybe most important just one turnover on a fumble which is huge given the mistakes in the past that made Nebraska the kings of one score defeats.
And averaging 4.7 yards per rush is a good sign since with tougher competition, it’s vital that Nebraska has a strong running game because despite the great debut, the first year for any college QB is a major adjustment and stronger teams will do their best to throw many different looks at Raiola to fluster him. With a reasonable schedule there is no reason Nebraska shouldn’t break their bowl draught with Raiola at the helm.
5. The Big Ten’s USC Trojans beat a Top 25 SEC team (LSU) enhancing Big Ten perception
The consensus is the Big 10 is #2 to the SEC and the SEC have really been the clear Kings of College football ever since Nick Saban took over the Alabama program in 2007. The SEC have the national titles and most players in the NFL to prove it over the past 15 plus years.
But the Big Ten would like to be looked at as the best. And adding four premier former Pac 12 teams in USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon increases their chances. The Big Ten has some definitive momentum here given that they have the defending national champions in the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan got it done by knocking off the SEC Champion Alabama 27-20 in overtime in the 2023 season playoff semi-finals.
Any head-to-head matchup vs. the SEC is huge for perceptions and with tough matchups ahead for the Big Ten in the 2024 season including Texas at Michigan and Alabama at Wisconsin, the Trojans victory in week 1 over LSU was very important.
6. Iowa offense shows signs of being legitimately good raising the Hawkeyes ceiling.
It is week 1, so we don’t want to over-react to the Iowa Hawkeye’s 40-0 home win over FBS level Illinois State, but given the recent several season’s ineptness of the Iowa offense, scoring 40 points which is the most for Iowa since 2021 actually is a big deal. Iowa’s offense was my #9 rated top Big Ten storyline for 2024 since this team has had National Title contender like defenses but offenses that were flat out offensive holding back Iowa’s potential ceiling and ability to beat high level teams.
In 2023, that offense was historically bad finishing 129th in scoring offense and 130th in total offense, which was basically about dead last for the 130 D-1 level teams. Kirk Ferentz finally replaced his son and seven-year offensive coordinator with former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester and the early result are very promising.
After scoring just six in the first half, Iowa exploded for 34 in the second half and that included 3 touchdown passes by now healthy former Michigan QB Cade McNamara who was 21-31 for 251 yards. Iowa racked up 492 yards of total offense, 23 first downs and had 241 yards rushing at 6.0 yards per carry so they had great balance on offense.
Schedule wise Iowa avoids #3 Oregon, #9 Michigan and #8 Penn State which all have really good defense, so the schedule is favorable for continued offensive improvement and could make the Hawkeyes Big Ten title contenders.
7. #3 Oregon surprisingly struggles at home in a 24-14 win over non-power 4 team Idaho.
I actually don’t think this one is nearly a big of worry as the final score suggests because the Oregon Ducks dominated this game statistically with a 31 to 10 edge in first downs and a 487 to 217 advantage in total yards. But it is a little concerning having an FCS team like Idaho pulling within three points at 17-14 with 9:45 left in the fourth quarter. That is not what you expect to see from a National Championship contender.
It also is not great that the Oregon only averaged 2.9 yards/rush on 37 attempts for 107 yards. But Dillon Gabriel more than made up for that in his Ducks debut going 41-49 for 380 yards and 2 TDs. I will put this on Week 1 rustiness and look for a better performance from Oregon in a week 2 matchup in Autzen Stadium vs visiting Boise State on Saturday night.
8. Michigan’s offense struggles in Game 1 looking for an identity.
The defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines won their first game in the Big House over Fresno State 30-10. But this was just a 16-10 lead with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter when Fresno State scored on a 16-year TD pass and did not seal the deal until 3:57 left in the game when All-American CB Will Johnson had a 86-yard interception return for a touchdown with Fresno State driving and in the Michigan red zone down 23-10.
But is this at all surprising given Michigan has a new coaching staff, lost the majority of their award-winning offensive line, and saw one of the greatest Michigan quarterbacks ever in J.J. McCarthy moving on to the NFL as a first-round draft pick and having a first-year starter at quarterback in walk-on senior starter Davis Warren.
Michigan had only 269 total yards in the game and Fresno State matches the Wolverines total of 18 first downs. The most surprising thing was Michigan only averaged 4.4 yards/rush and running back Donovan Edwards is supposed to have a true breakout this year with Blake Corum moving on to the NFL but he only rushed for 27 yards on 11 carries. Instead, it was Senior Kalel Mullings who led the Wolverines in rushing with 15 carries for 92 yards.
But as expected the Michigan defense was excellent holding the Bulldogs to just 10 points and 244 total yards for the game. Early in the season, that defense will need to carry Michigan as the offense seeks to establish a more defined identity.
9. Ohio State starts slow, but new wide receiver Jeremiah Smith already establishes himself as a star.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are considered by many as Wide Receiver University and have churned out NFL receiver stars under Ryan Day’s watch. They already have a deep receiver room including pre-season All-American wideout Emeka Egbuka, but Jeremiah Smith came in as the consensus #1 wide receiver in his class and some had him as the #1 player across any position.
Still it’s really impressive in Game 1 to have several highlight plays including 2 touchdowns and leading the Buckeyes with 6 receptions for 92 yards in his debut quickly establishing himself as yet another star wideout in Ohio States 52-6 win over the Akron Zips. This is great news for Buckeye fans and new transfer quarterback Will Howard who is one of the few question marks for Ohio State going 17-28 for 228 yards and 3 touchdowns.
As many including me have written about, Ryan Day and Ohio State have the most pressure on them of any team but difference makers like Jeremiah Smith will help the Buckeyes try to achieve their goals.
10. Hudson Card shines for Purdue raising expectations for coach Ryan Walters in Year 2.
The Purdue Boilermakers had a tough year in 2023 under first-year coach Ryan Walters going 4-8 after Jeff Brohm left for Louisville. But it was a promising opening game 49-0 win over the Indiana State Sycamores at home in West Lafayette. They need veteran quarterback and Senior Hudson Card to be a star and that is exactly what they got in game 1 with Card going an amazing 24-25 for 273 yards and 4 touchdowns.
And importantly for Purdue it was more than just great quarterback play as they rushed for 248 yards and 8.0 yards per carry, led by Devin Mockobee with 11 carries for 89 yards, as the Boilermakers piled up 583 total yards. And the defense more than held their own holding the Sycamores to just 154 total yards.
Things will get much tougher with Purdue having an off week before playing impressive and 5th ranked Notre Dame on the road September 14. But it looks like Purdue has the type of team to give the Irish a real fight in South Bend.
