Each week Big Jeff will give my picks for all Big Ten conference games and the one I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” pick of the week. Football is all about two things – Matchups and Motivation (which includes the team’s mental state) – and that is the key criteria I use in deciding my picks. Vegas is great at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise but let’s get to it starting with a quick review of last week.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (after Week 9)
- Last Week: 4-4 vs Spread; Lost Lock City pick
- Year-to-Date: 23-19-1 vs Spread; 2-4 in “Lock City” picks of week
Week 9 Pick Summary
- USC -13.5 vs. Rutgers (Friday Night) – USC W
- #4 OHIO STATE -25.5 vs. Nebraska – Ohio State L
- #13 INDIANA -6.5 vs Washington – Indiana W
- #1 OREGON -21.5 vs. #20 Illinois – Oregon W
- IOWA -13.5 vs. Northwestern – Northwestern L
- MINNESOTA -4 vs. Maryland – Minnesota W
- #3 Penn State -6.5 at WISCONSIN – Wisconsin (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week) L
- MICHIGAN -4 vs. Michigan State – Michigan State L
The early games went well as I was 4-2. Then in the night games Michigan State dominated the first quarter and was up 7-0, and Wisconsin led Penn St. at the half 10-7. Things were looking great until Michigan and Penn State came storming back, and I lost both the night games to go 4-4 on the week.
Big 10 Football Mid-Season Report Card – Big Jeff’s Football
Week 9 Big Ten Football Top Storylines – Big Jeff’s Football
Here are the games for Week 10: (Odds by ESPNBET on 10/30/24).
Week 10 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week
Big Ten Conference Games (8)
- #4 Ohio State -3.5 vs. #3 PENN STATE – The Pick: Penn State
- Minnesota -3 vs. #24 ILLINOIS – The Pick: Minnesota
- Northwestern -1 vs. PURDUE – The Pick: Purdue
- #1 Oregon -14.5 vs. MICHIGAN – The Pick: Oregon
- #13 Indiana -7.5 vs. MICHIGAN STATE – The Pick: Indiana (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week)
- NEBRASKA -6.5 vs. UCLA (away) – The Pick: UCLA
- IOWA -3 vs. Wisconsin – The Pick: Iowa
- USC (away) -2.5 vs. WASHINGTON – The Pick: Washington
#4 Ohio State -3.5 vs. #3 PENN STATE
Simply a huge matchup in the Big Ten and for college football playoff implications. #3 vs #4 and the first top 5 matchup at Penn State in 25 years. James Franklin is 1-9 against Ohio State, including losing seven in a row, and 3-7 against Michigan. In 20 games vs. top 10 opponents under James Franklin, Penn State is 3-17.
Meanwhile Ryan Day is 2-6 against teams ranked in the Top 5 and Ohio State has already lost to #1 Oregon, so a second loss could put their hopes to make the 12-team playoffs as a question mark. Penn State has yet to have a loss but still does not have a big marquee win this year with only a Top 25 win over #19 at the time Illinois. A lot is on the line for both teams and both coaches.
Why Ohio State can Cover: The Ohio State defense struggled vs. Oregon giving up 496 yards and several big plays in the passing game. Penn State has all world tight end Tyler Warren, but beyond that they don’t have nearly the explosive players that Oregon has.
For the season, the Buckeyes defense is the best in the Big Ten in both yards/game given up (254/game) and points per game (11.9). In fact, nationally they rank second in yards given up and 4th in points. The Buckeyes rank 3rd in passing defense and 2nd in rushing defense. Bottom line is this is an excellent defense and the type that can keep this a lower scoring game allowing their 2nd in the Big Ten ranked offense a great chance to help get the win if they can score in the 20’s.
Penn State’s defense is also excellent and ranked second in the Big Ten, but despite the current OSU struggles in the run game, their skilled receivers (Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith) combined with quarterback Will Howard’s strong play and ability to run will put more stress on Penn State than any team they have faced. The best offenses PSU have faced is USC who is 5th in the Big Ten in offense and 35th nationally and West Virginia who is 55th nationally. The other offenses faced are 69th, 84th, 94th, 125th, and 133rd.
Why take the points with Penn State: Penn State allows only 93 yards rushing/game and with Ohio State’s current line struggles has a chance to make the Buckeyes one-dimensional and over reliant on the pass. Penn State is very strong up front led by projected first round defensive end pick Abdul Carter who has four sacks this year and 14 as a team. If Penn State can put Ohio State in third and longs, it will allow them to unleash Carter and the pass rush preventing QB Will Howard the time he needs to throw. Last week vs. Nebraska, Ohio State was only 1 for 10 on third downs.
On offense Penn State has a balanced and versatile attack, ranking 7th in the Big Ten in passing and 3rd in rushing, which is what you need against the top rated in the Big Ten Buckeyes defense. Whether it’s Drew Allar at quarterback or sub-Beau Pribula, who played really well last week vs. Wisconsin, offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has shown he is able to adapt the offense and be creative in getting the ball to his best playmakers headlined by dynamic weapon TE Tyler Warren.
Big Jeffs Call: If the run game is not working for Ohio State, I expect they won’t stick with it like last week and rely on the passing game mixing in much more running than typical from QB Will Howard. Penn State might be even more dangerous with Beau Pribula at QB so I don’t think Allar’s injury status will dictate this result. This game is a toss-up. I would not bet it. I have to take the 3.5 points with Penn State at home since it could come down to just a field goal either way. Penn State 24 Ohio State 21.
Minnesota -3 vs. #24 ILLINOIS
Illinois is coming off a 38-9 blowout loss at Oregon that came after a huge emotional win over Michigan. At 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten, they are still in line for a season well over expectations and have a very manageable schedule the final 4 games where 10 wins is still possible.
Minnesota is 5-3 and 3-2 in the Big Ten on a 3-game winning streak and playing with great confidence under P.J. Fleck after blowing out Maryland at home 48-23. Unlike Illinois though, the Gophers schedule is much tougher with upcoming games vs #3 Penn State and at Wisconsin, so this is a big opportunity to position themselves for 7 or 8 wins.
Because Illinois is at home where they have defeated three Top 25 teams already this year, I thought they would be favored by 3 or 4. But it’s the hot Gophers who Vegas has as 3-point favorites.
Why Minnesota can Cover: Despite the great record, statistically Illinois is more middle of the pack ranking 12th in the Big Ten in offense and 13th in defense in yardage/game indicating they have really overachieved. The Gophers strength is the defense where they rank 5th in the Big Ten giving up just 283 yards/game and are second in pass defense at 163 yards/game led by freshman safety star Koi Perich who has 5 interceptions this year. Illinois is just 13th in Big Ten passing so the Gophers could force Illinois to run the ball to be succesful.
On offense, Minnesota is a shocking 2nd to last in the Big Ten at only 108 yards/game. But the passing game under transfer QB Max Brosmer, who is on the Maxwell QB Award mid-season list, and been a strong leader is very efficient completing 70% of his passes for 12 TDs and 4 interceptions. As a team, Minnesota is +10 in turnover margin, best in the Big Ten and tied for 9th in the nation.
Why take the points with Illinois: As stated earlier, Illinois has beat three Top 25 teams at home (Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan) where they play with great confidence. Illinois also has a very good +6 turnover margin, 4th in the Big Ten and tied for 23rd in the nation. And have only 41 yards/game in penalties good for 17th fewest in the nation.
This adds up to mostly mistake free football helping the Illini own a 3-0 record in one score games this year. In general, Brett Bielema knows how to win tight games as well from his time at Wisconsin and that is what Illinois will need to do in this one.
Big Jeff’s Call: I just like the momentum that Minnesota is riding right now and have more belief in QB Max Brosmer over Illinois’ Luke Altmyer. Illinois has played over their capability this year so I will take the Gophers, though I also could see them win by just a field goal for a push here. Minnesota 24 Illinois 17.
Northwestern -1 vs. PURDUE
Purdue was off last week while Northwestern got drilled at Iowa 40-14 and both touchdowns were not even scored by the offense as the Cats got TDs from an 85-yard interception return and a 72-yard 4th quarter punt return. For the game, Northwestern had 163 total yards and lost the turnover battle 3 to 1 as quarterback Jack Lausch threw 2 interceptions and was 10 for 19 for 62 yards.
Northwestern has by far the worst offense in the Big Ten averaging 271 yards/game, which is 2nd to last (132nd) in the nation. They are third to last in the Big Ten in both passing and rushing and don’t do anything well. For the year, the QBs are completing 53% of their passes and have 4 TDs and 5 interceptions and they average 3.7 yards rushing. The lack of good quarterback play is the biggest issue.
Purdue meanwhile is the consensus worst team in the Big Ten and rank 14th in offensive yardage/game but run the ball pretty well rating 9th at 164 yards/game. Purdue is dead last in Big Ten defense giving up 452 yards/game and 38 points/game.
Why Northwestern can Cover: As bad as the Wildcat offense is, their defense is holding up pretty well ranking 14th in the Big Ten and are tough against the run but are just 15th in passing defense. The good news is Purdue has a bad passing game rating 15th in the Big Ten. So, the Wildcats should hold up well against Purdue’s 9th best running attack.
Northwestern also is plus 3 in turnover margin and average only 42 yards/game (24th in the nation) in penalties. Due to their offensive limitations, the Wildcats margin for error is very thin so they may need to win the turnover battle to come out with the win. But they are facing the Big Ten’s worst defense.
Why take the points with Purdue: Purdue ranks last in Big Ten defense, but they face the Big Ten’s worst offense. The Boilermakers rank 9th in the Big Ten in rushing yards/game and average 5.3 yards/carry. Since this will be a low scoring game, they simply need to lean on that solid running game and be patient. Purdue has a -6 turnover margin, so if they can come out even in the turnover battle, their run game could carry them to victory.
Big Jeff’s Call: I see Purdue committing themselves to their effective running game knowing they don’t need to put up a lot of points to beat offensively challenged Northwestern. Northwestern can’t put up enough points to win. Purdue 24 Northwestern 17.
#1 Oregon -14.5 vs. MICHIGAN
Oregon is rolling along looking fully like the #1 team in the nation and beat up on #20 Illinois 38-9 last Saturday. They look great on both sides of the ball and are getting national championship type of play from QB Dillon Gabriel who is in the Heisman hunt while completing 76% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Michigan got a huge rivalry home win over Michigan State after statistically getting outplayed most of the game and outgained in yardage 352 to 265 including 163 to 119 in the rushing game. Key to the win though, Iowa finally got effective play at quarterback where Davis Warren was back starting and went 13 for 19 with a touchdown and importantly no turnovers. Michigan still has a salty defense so if Warren can play well the Wolverines have a chance to be spoilers down the stretch.
Why Oregon can cover: Despite Michigan’s win last week, they still are struggling on offense and rank third to last in the Big Ten at 303 yards/game. They are dead last in passing but better in rushing at 7th in the Big Ten. It will be hard for Michigan to score 20 points on Oregon, so if the Ducks can get into the low 30’s they likely can cover the 14.5 points.
Oregon has the 2nd best passing offense in the Big Ten at 300 yards/game, going up against Michigan’s pass defense which is a surprising 13th in the Big Ten. With Gabriel throwing to a very talented receiver core that is similar to Texas who torched the Wolverines earlier this year, this looks like a major mismatch for the Ducks. Michigan’s talented defense is only 11th in the Big Ten, so I have a hard time seeing Michigan controlling Oregon and holding them under 30.
Why take the points with Michigan: After securing a win over Michigan State last week, Michigan is 5-3 overall and still has a home game vs. Northwestern so bowl eligibility should not be in doubt. That means the Wolverines should play very aggressive against Oregon to try to pull off the upset. If they can keep it close, their big home field advantage will come into play. Michigan has the players to try to make this into a dog fight. They must get the run game going through Kalel Mullings who is averaging 5.6 yards/carry.
Big Jeff’s Call: Other than Ohio State, every Oregon win has been by at least 21 points over five games. I just don’t see enough offense from Michigan and their defense is going to be on the field too long. The Ducks are strong in the trenches so it will be hard for Michigan to play bully ball on them. I look for the Ducks to win but barely cover. Oregon 31 Michigan 14.
#13 Indiana -7.5 vs. MICHIGAN STATE
Indiana’s Cinderella season rolled on last week in a 31-17 win over Washington with ESPN’s GameDay in town. It didn’t matter that starting QB Kurtis Rourke (who is the highest ranked in the Big Ten according to Pro Football Focus) was out with his thumb injury as backup Tayven Jackson was effective enough for the Hoosiers.
Key to the win was Indiana’s ability to run the ball in the second half that included a 14 play, 75-yard TD drive in the third quarter that took 7:42 off the clock and put IU up 24-14. The drive included 51 yards rushing mostly by RB Justice Ellison who finished with 123 yards at 4.2/carry.
Michigan State meanwhile totally outplayed Michigan in the first quarter and was up 7-0, before wasting a great opportunity for a rivalry win losing 24-17 that saw another key turnover as well from QB Aidan Chiles.
Why Indiana can Cover: Indiana is hopeful Kurtis Rourke will be back, which would be good since you could see their offensive game plan was more conservative under Tayven Jackson. Indiana has the leading offense in the Big Ten at 488 yards/game and 46.5 points/game, is 4th in passing offense and 2nd in rushing offense at 201 yards/game.
Meanwhile, Michigan State’s defense is middle of the pack (9th overall) in the Big Ten in both passing and rushing defense. Indiana should move the ball well on the Spartans. The key will be to contain Michigan State QB Aidan Chiles who has a big upside but still keeps committing critical turnovers with 7 touchdowns but 9 interceptions. On offense Michigan State averages just 21.0 points/game which is 15th in the Big Ten so there is little evidence they can keep up with IU in scoring.
Why take the points with Michigan State: The Spartans are capable of playing well against pretty good to good Big Ten teams. They beat Maryland on the road 27-24 outgaining the Terps 484 to 339. Just two games ago they beat a good Iowa team 32-20 while outgaining the Hawkeyes 468 to 283. When Michigan State puts it together, they have shown they can be a good football team.
To have any chance in this game though, Michigan State is going to need to either win or be neutral in the turnover battle which won’t be easy as the Spartans are -7 for the year, while Indiana is +8 and tied for 2nd in the Big Ten and 14th in the nation. Keep it close, rely on that excellent kicking game and Sparty could cover the 7.5 points.
Big Jeff’s Call: Until Indiana has a clunker game, I am not going to bet against Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers and even will call this my LOCK CITY Pick of the Week. Given Indiana’s high scoring offense and the fact they have stayed aggressive throughout the game and have yet to have a win that is not in the double digits, giving up 7.5 points to Michigan State is not extravagant. Take IU. Indiana 34 Michigan State 20.
NEBRASKA -6.5 vs. UCLA (away)
UCLA had an off week but got their first Big Ten win their last game 35-32 over Rutgers. They continue to play hard for first year coach DeShaun Foster. UCLA is 2nd to last in the Big Ten in offense and last in rushing (by a lot) at only 65 yards/game. The defense is better at 14th in the Big Ten.
Nebraska has had a roller coaster two weeks with a shocking 56-7 loss at Indiana, followed by an equally surprising 21-17 dogfight loss at Ohio State. The truth of who the Huskers are is probably right in between those two extremes.
Why Nebraska can cover: Nebraska has a really good defense. The performance against Indiana was an anomaly. The Huskers rate 7th in the Big Ten giving up 302 yards/game. Against UCLA’s second to last rated Big Ten offense, Nebraska should should mostly hold them in check. The question is how much can Nebraska score, since their offense is very mediocre right now rating 11th in the Big Ten at 358 yards/game?
Nebraska is weak at running the ball with 126 yards/game and UCLA has the 5th best run defense. The opportunity then is throwing the ball against the UCLA pass defense which ranks 2nd to last in the Big Ten and gives up 269 yards/game. This means Dylan Raiola must have a good passing game for Nebraska to win and cover the 6.5 points. Because this is a home game, he has a good opportunity to do that.
Why take the points with UCLA: Nebraska is the best at stopping the run giving up only 98 yards/game and held the talented Ohio State running back duo to only 64 yards/rushing. But UCLA does not run the ball anyway, so they will need to rely on quarterback Ethan Garbers and their 8th rated Big Ten passing offense to carry the load.
Garbers has 8 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on the year, which is a big part of UCLA being -7 in turnovers, but he is also coming off a huge 383 yard and 4 TD performance against Rutgers. If he plays even close to that, UCLA covers easily.
Big Jeff’s Call: Which Nebraska team are we going to get? That question is more directed to the defense because the offense continues to struggle. After the near win in Columbus, it should be an energized home crowd. The over/under is a low 40.5 so Vegas expects a low scoring game. The last 3 games Nebraska has scored 7, 7 and 17. UCLA has played at LSU, Penn State and Rutgers so won’t be intimidated in Lincoln. I think UCLA will cover in a low scoring game, but the Huskers win. Nebraska 21 UCLA 17.
IOWA -3 vs. Wisconsin
A good old fashioned Big Ten West slugfest. Iowa coming off a 40-14 domination of a very bad Northwestern team and Wisconsin in a disappointing home loss vs. #3 Penn State. Both teams have major quarterback issues with an inability to pass the ball consistently, good but not great defenses (Wisconsin is 8th in the Big Ten, Iowa 10th), and reliance on the run game for success. Pretty much the definition of what the Big Ten West was like for the past 10+ years. It will be physical and fun because it’s old school football.
Why Iowa can Cover: Wisconsin allows 144 yards rushing/game, which is only 14th in the Big Ten. Iowa leads the Big Ten in rushing at 209 yards/game and has the 2nd leading rusher in the nation in Kaleb Johnson who has 1,1144 yards at 7.8 yards/carry. This is a super favorable matchup for Iowa.
Iowa is 7th in the Big Ten in rushing defense giving up only 104 yards/game and should be able to contain the Tawee Walker and the Wisconsin running attack the same way Penn State just did holding him to 59 yards. They can make the Badgers one-dimensional requiring quarterback Braedyn Locke to have a big game for Wisconsin to cover. An unknown is how new quarterback Brendan Sullivan will perform.
Why take the points with Wisconsin: If Wisconsin doesn’t have 5 or 6 drops vs. Penn State, the game could have been much different. They were up 10-7 at the half after all. With better receiver play, and if Wisconsin can get the run game going like they did in the three games prior to Penn State, they can beat Iowa.
Big Jeff’s Call: Wisconsin’s inability to run the ball vs. Penn State was alarming. To win/cover, Badger quarterback Braedyn Locke needs to have a really big game, and I don’t think he will do it. I will take the Hawkeyes. Iowa 20 Wisconsin 14.
USC (away) -2.5 vs. WASHINGTON
One of the more fascinating games this week because both teams should have better records based on their capabilities and statistics. USC is 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the Big Ten with all four losses after they led in the fourth quarter. If they could close better, this team could easily be 6-2. Washington is similar and has the same record overall and in the Big Ten as USC. They lost by three at Rutgers despite outgaining the Scarlet Knights 521 to 299 and blew a chance to beat Washington State in the final minute.
Based on metrics, Washington is the most under-achieving team in the Big Ten as they rank 5th in the Big Ten in total offense at 436 yards/game and 4th in total defense giving up 272 yards/game. The biggest issue has been poor Red Zone execution where Washington ranks 110th of 133 teams nationally scoring just 77% of the time and getting a touchdown only about 50% of the time.
Why USC can Cover: USC is coming off a convincing 42-20 win over Rutgers. They have a very good passing game as we have discussed but they also run the ball well at 5.31 yards/carry led by tailback Woody Marks who averages 5.7 yards/carry and has 755 yards on the year.
If USC can get out to a lead, I think Lincoln Riley has learned from the blown 4th quarter leads he needs to rely on that running game which is capable of protecting a lead and getting USC a victory.
Why take the points with Washington: The Huskies are ranked first in the Big Ten in pass defense giving up 123 yards/game, while USC has the 6th ranked Big Ten offense but 3rd ranked passing offense behind QB Miller Moss and a talented wide receiver core averaging 291 yards/game. Washington is very capable of holding the Trojan passing game in check.
Washington has a very well balanced attack with QB Will Rogers and talented running back Jonah Coleman that will challenge a USC defense ranked only 15th in the Big Ten and I don’t see the Trojans being able to slow down Washington as long as they can execute better in the red zone.
Big Jeff’s Call: Who will win the 4th quarter? It’s been USC’s albatross this year and for Washington last week Indiana dominated the 4th quarter and literally ran out the clock with their run game. This is a very tough call. Both offenses are very capable and both defenses are suspect against the run. I am going to go with Washington to win outright saying their home environment will help pull them through. Washington 31 USC 28.
