Big Jeff’s Week 10 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Week 9 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 10 picks, let’s first do a comprehensive review of how I did in Week 9.

(Odds by FanDuel on 10.23.25).

General Comments:

• I had my third straight 3-2 week to finally pull back over .500 since back at Week 1 and I also won my lock city game taking Northwestern to cover vs Nebraska.
• My year-to-date overall record is now 23-22 and 4-2 on Lock City games.
• I also have gone 3-2 now 5 of the past 6 weeks.
• Let’s do a quick what I got right and wrong in Week 9, where my 5 games included 3 “virtual” playoff elimination games involving matchups of teams with 5-2 overall records.

What I Got Wrong in Week 9: 

• I always start with what I got wrong, which this week was 2 games. 
• First, I had Indiana not covering giving 25.5 points to UCLA, thinking they would win by only 20 and of course they did what they do under Cignetti and blew out UCLA from the start winning by 50 – 56-6.   And it was 35-3 at halftime. Sheesh.
  • The insight on Indiana is their defense continues to show they are a Top 5 unit and maybe along with Ohio State have the first or second best defense in the nation. And recent history shows you need an elite defense to win a national title and IU’s defense is elite.Here were the first 5 first half drives: 91) 2 plays, minus 2 yards and pick 6 INT; (2) 3 plays, 2 yards (3) 6 plays, 15 yards (4) 3 plays, -6 yards (5) 5 plays, 21 yards Fumble; UCLA had 94 yards total in the first half.For UCLA, I felt their rejuvenated running game would keep them in it but they only rushed for 88 total yards at 3.5 yards/carry. And Nico’s terrible pick 6 TD on the first drive just likely killed UCLA’s confidence that they could spring an upset.
  • UCLA ran into a buzz saw, so learn from it and move on.  UCLA has an off week before playing Nebraska at home.  At 3-5 overall and a visit to Ohio State in 3 weeks Nebraska is a must win to make a bowl.
• Illinois at Washington was our first virtual elimination game of 5-2 teams. Washington was 4.5 point favorites, and I though Illinois would play them tough but lose by 3 and so I took Illinois.
  • Washington covered and won 42-25 and clearly looked like the better team outgaining the Illini 449 to 337 as Demond Williams threw for 280 yards and 4 TDs with no picks, and 66 yards on 10 carries.  Denzel Boston had 153 yards receiving.
  • Williams is drastically underrated, and Washington is as well since at 6-2 they are still unranked which is just completely ridiculous as they are CLEARLY a Top 25 team.
  • For Illinois, this loss makes them 5-3 and knocks them out of any playoff consideration, but with a 53-point loss to Indiana, even at 10-2, I had doubts they would have made the playoffs anyway.
  • They did not play a clean game with 8 penalties for 82 yards and lost the turnover battle 2-0 from two Luke Altmyer interceptions.
  • Illinois can still have a 9-win season as they have the EASIEST remaining Big Ten schedule (and 81^st in the nation) playing Rutgers, Maryland, at Wisconsin and Northwestern.  9 wins is right where I projected the Illini.

What I Got Right in Week 9:

• In the second virtual playoff elimination game, Nebraska eliminated Northwestern winning 28-21 but I had the Wildcats covering getting 7.5 points and won by a ½ point. 
  • This game easily could have went either way tied at 21 with 11 minutes left. 
  • Neither passing game was very effective both under 160 yards and Northwestern ran the ball better with 172 yards at 5.7 yards/carry, which was not surprising given Nebraska’s run defense came in ranked 15^th in the Big Ten.
  • On the good side, Nebraska’s struggling offensive line which gave up 9 sacks the prior week to Minnesota, only gave up 1 sack to the Wildcats.
  • For Nebraska the key insights on the positive are they are now winning one score games (3-1 this year) and are already bowl eligible, but on the downside, they don’t look like a legit playoff contender, and their remaining schedule is tough with games vs USC, at UCLA, at Penn State and Iowa.
  • For Northwestern,  their fans have to feel great about how competitive they are and need one more win to get to 6 wins for bowl eligibility, but their remaining schedule is 10^th toughest in the nation and they play at USC, vs Michigan, vs Minnesota and at Illinois.
  • Note: Northwestern is now 6-2 against the spread including covering their last 4 games, while Nebraska is only 2-6 and has not covered their last 5 games.
• In the third virtual playoff elimination game, I took Iowa to beat Minnesota by 10 as an 8.5-point favorite but they boat raced the Gophers winning 41-3.
  • People wondered how this happened after Minnesota easily beat Nebraska by 18 last week?
  • Two big things that I had said in my analysis of this game.  I had wondered are we totally underestimating how good Iowa is?  Their only 2 losses are in a rivalry road game at Iowa State 16-13 who were a Top 25 team at the time, and then #2 ranked Indiana who had to score a late touchdown to comeback beat Iowa 20-15, but Iowa may have won if Mark Gronowski had not got hurt.
  • Plus, Iowa was clearly better in the trenches on both sides of the ball than Minnesota.
  • Then the intangibles clearly favored Iowa with Minnesota playing their 5^th week in a row and off an emotional home win over Nebraska and now plays on the road in a potential letdown game and Minnesota has a freshman QB in Drake Lindsey playing on the road going up against Norm Parker’s tough zone defense and sure enough he struggled throwing for only 109 yards and had 3 interceptions. 
  • Final thing: it is the crime of the century that Iowa is not ranked right now.  I think they could be ranked as high as 14^th right now.
  • Iowa’s remaining schedule is tough vs Oregon, at USC, vs Michigan State and at Nebraska but that is good since if they win out I really think they will be the 4^th Big Ten team to make the playoffs.
• The final game I got right was Michigan State barely covering, getting 14.5 points from Michigan, losing by 11, 31 to 20.
  • With under 3 minutes left, Michigan was only up 24 to 13 and my pick taking the Spartans looked great cause the Wolverines were trying to run out the clock but then Jordan Marshall ran for a 56-yard TD to put Michigan up 31-13.
  • But I got saved by a 75-yard last minute drive led by backup QB Alessio Milivojevic that finished with a 21-yard passing TD with only 7 seconds left.
  • Michigan only got 86 yards passing but it didn’t matter since their defense mostly dominated the Spartans and the run game was excellent led by the return of the best running back in the Big Ten Justice Haynes who ran for 152 yards and 2 TDs, while Marshall also had 110 yards.
  • My Michigan key takeaway, is if they get bad weather for the Ohio State game, they are built perfectly for that and it would increase their chances even more to upset the Buckeyes.
  • For Michigan State, they just look like a lost team with no real identity other than they aren’t very good at anything in my opinion.

Big Jeff’s Week 9 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

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Week 10 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 10.30.25.

We have 6 games in the Big Ten this week and in deciding on my 5 games to predict it was pretty easy to choose which game to leave out which is Michigan State at Minnesota since the Spartans have yet to win a Big Ten game (0-5) and with 3 losses Minnesota is out of the playoff picture.

Last week we had 3 virtual playoff elimination games, while this week we only have one as USC at 5-2 plays at 6-2 Nebraska and the loser with 3 losses almost certainly will be eliminated.

Just a reminder when I analyze these picks it’s all about “Matchups and Motivation”.  I am looking for edges in both as a look at two opponents. 

Other Big Ten Games (1) – Home team in CAPS.

MINNESOTA -4.5 Michigan State (44.5 O/U)

Odds per FanDuel (10/22/25)

Game 1: #1 OHIO STATE -20.5 Penn State (43.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

Both teams are coming off bye weeks in very different places in this FOX Big Noon showdown.

Ohio State is 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten and shut out Wisconsin 34-0 in Madison in their last game.  OSU has beat Penn State 8 years in a row and won 12 of the last 13 games and the last time Penn State won in Columbus was 2011 (PSU 20 OSU 14).

Penn State is 3-4 overall and incredibly 0-4 in the Big Ten after starting the year ranked 2^nd in the AP Poll.  Their 4-game losing streak started with the OT loss at home to Oregon, and then the loss at UCLA and home loss to Northwestern sealed James Franklin’s fate.   Assistant Terry Smith took over and lost a close one to a really good Iowa team 25-24. 

To add to the intrigue of this game, Penn State’s defense is led by former OSU defensive coordinator Jim Knowles who helped them win the national title last year and he would love to help pull off a big upset. The question is can Penn State come up with game plans on both sides of the ball that fully utilizes all the talent they had which clearly looks underutilized?

For the year Penn State is 1-6 against the spread with the only cover from their last game at Iowa.  Ohio State is 6-0-1 against the spread with the only blemish a tie vs Ohio in Week 3.  ESPN SP+ has Ohio State ranked 2^nd and Penn State is 20^th.

Why Ohio State Can Cover:

1-In general, the Ohio State defense does not appear to have a weakness and is being talked about as a potential all-time great giving up just 5.9 points/game through 7 games and will be tough for a struggling Penn State offense to have success against.

Ohio State ranks 1^st in the nation in scoring defense and total defense giving up 217 yards/game.  They are 3^rd in pass defense giving up 131 yards/game and ironically that is 3^rd in the Big Ten behind #1 Oregon and #2 Nebraska in pass defense.   In rush defense, Ohio State gives up 86 yards/game which is 8^th in the nation and 3^rd in the Big Ten.   Teams have yet to figure out how to move the ball against this defense.

Meanwhile, Penn State’s total offense ranks only 12^th in the Big Ten (355 ypg), 14^th in passing offense (185 ypg), and 7^th in rushing offense (170 ypg) at 4.79 yards/carry which is a solid 42^nd in the nation. So other than a good rush game, it does not seem like Penn State may not have the firepower to hurt the Ohio State defense.

2-The elite Ohio State defense at home coached by Matt Patricia who will do all he can to confuse Penn State’s young, first year starting QB in Ethan Grunkemeyer and a shaky receiving core is a major mismatch.

Beyond the defensive stats talked about above, Ohio State’s elite and complicated defense is a really bad matchup vs a quarterback with very little experience and not great weapons to throw to.  Per PFF among all Big Ten tight ends and receivers the first Penn State receiver is Devonte Ross who appears at #21 and then all the way down to 47^th ranked Trebor Pena.

3-On offense Ohio State’s biggest strength is their pass offense while their running game has relatively struggled but Penn State’s rushing defense is not great providing the capability for OSU to be even more balanced which would allow them to control the game.

Penn State’s run defense is 16^th in the Big Ten (giving up 159 yards/game) and one of the main reasons is their weakness at defensive tackle where their highest ranked player per PFF is 39^th in Zane Durant (65.2 rating) and then Alonzo Ford Jr. ranked 50^th.  Add to it the season ending injury of their best linebacker Tony Rojas and the Nittany Lions just have been very weak against the run.

Meanwhile, Ohio State ranks first in pass efficiency offense led by quarterback Julian Sayin’s nation leading 80.0% completion percentage and 19 TDs with just 3 interceptions and he hasn’t thrown a pick the past 4 games.  And of course, he has the best weapons in the nation in receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate who is looking like a clear NFL first round pick in the 2026 draft.

Though the OSU rushing attack hasn’t been great at 10^th in the Big Ten at 152 yards/game, they have been moving more toward their younger running backs who seem more explosive and capable to break tackles in freshmen Bo Jackson (6.4 ypc) and Isaiah West (5.0 ypc) who got 9 carries at 6.1 ypc in their last game vs a good Wisconsin run defense. 

I expect to see these young backs get more playing time assuming their pass blocking ability is sufficient.

 Why Take the Points with Penn State:  

1-Even though Penn State rarely wins this game, they almost always play Ohio State close, and they have no pressure on them at this point, which has been a problem in the past so that supports a Penn State cover.

I think Penn State has lost some of these games by playing too tight under James Franklin.  That shouldn’t be a problem in this game.  Here is the number of points OSU has won during the 8-game winning streak in order: 7, 8, 13, 9, 13, 11, 1, and 1. That’s an average win of only 7.9 points. 

2-Jim Knowles coached with Ryan Day for 3 years and knows him well and there’s a potential to leverage that knowledge combined with a still very talented Penn State defense for Penn State to contain the Ohio State offense.

Penn State has been flat disappointing on defense and is a big reason they are just 3-4.  For years, great Penn State defense was a given, but not this year.  Penn State is 7^th in the Big Ten in total defense yielding 304 yards/game, while last year it wasn’t that much better at 295 yards/game, but their run defense yielded just 102 ypg vs this year’s 159 ypg.  I can only assume the big reason is last year they led in most games, forcing opponents to pass more.

3-More specific to the defense, Penn State has the type of defensive ends that are capable of generating pressure on OSU QB Julian Sayin, which will be vital to containing Ohio State’s biggest offensive strength of their passing offense.

Penn State has really talented defensive ends with 3 players ranking per PFF in the Top 22 among all Big Ten ends in pass rushing starting with Freshman defensive end Chaz Coleman ranked 2^nd (yet he hasn’t had many snaps), Zuriah Fisher ranked 14^th and Dani Dennis-Sutton 22^nd.  On the downside though, despite the pressure they are generating the 3 combine for only 3 sacks.

Big Jeff’s Call: In games where one team is likely to struggle to score which I am assuming given OSU’s elite defense and Penn State starting a freshman QB, it’s best to start with projecting how many points they might get. 

In Big Ten play, Penn State is actually averaging 26.5 points/game and scored 24 on the road against a really good Iowa defense with Grunkemeyer starting.  I think PSU could get to 14 points or in the upper teens with an aggressive game plan and try some new things OSU has not seen before under the interim head coach Terry Smith.

OSU would need 35 points then to cover.  Plus, PSU’s four losses are by a combined 13 points, and they still have a lot of talent. 

This is a tough call because it’s so hard to project how Penn State will play, but I assume they will play their best game and lose by 17 to get the cover.   Ohio State 31 Penn State 14.  Confidence: Low

Game 2: ILLINOIS -12.5 Rutgers (63.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

Illinois is 5-3 overall and 2-3 in the Big Ten but coming off a really disappointing loss at Washington that forces them to frankly recalibrate their goals of potentially making the playoffs.  It’s good that this game is at home in case they get off to a slow start, the crowd can help lift them up.

Rutgers is 4-4 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten after a huge come from behind win at Purdue 27-24 breaking a 4-game losing streak which keeps them in the hunt to get to 6 wins and go to a bowl game.  Looking at the schedule, it is doable with other remaining games vs Maryland, at Ohio State and vs Penn State.

For the season, Rutgers is 4-4 against the spread and Illinois is 5-3 but have not covered their past 2 games.  Per ESPN SP+ Illinois is ranked 30^th (10^th in the Big Ten) with the 18^th best offense and Rutgers is 63^rd (14^th in the Big Ten).

This is a game between two of the worst defenses in the Big Ten.  The stats are ugly:

• In points/game, Rutgers is dead last in the Big Ten giving up 30.6 points/game and Illinois is 16^th (3^rd to last) at 27.5 game.
• In total defense it’s pretty much the same, Rutgers is last in the Big Ten (and 118^th in the nation) giving up 426 yards/game and Illinois is 16^th in the Big Ten (and 85^th in the nation) yielding 381 yards/game.
• Passing defense is the biggest culprit with Illinois ranking last in Big Ten pass defense and Rutgers 16^th.
• At least Illinois is decent against the run ranking 10^th in the Big Ten (135 ypg), while Rutgers is 17^th

On offense both teams are very similar with Illinois 8^th in Big Ten scoring at 32.9/game and Rutgers is 9^th at 31.4/game.   Both offenses are pass oriented with two seasoned quarterbacks playing well in Rutgers Ethan Kaliakmanis and Illinois’ Luke Altmyer.  Rutgers is 2nd in Big Ten passing while Illinois is 7^th.

This game will come down to which struggling defense is better equipped and more likely to contain the others offense.  Let’s look at that closer.

Why Illinois Can Cover:

1-Illinois is susceptible to sacks disrupting their offense giving up 23 sacks (2.9/game) ranking 118^th in nation and tied for 3^rd worst in the Big Ten but Rutgers sacks data shows they are unlikely to take advantage of this Illinois weakness.

Illinois has struggled against strong defensive fronts but did not give up a sack to Washington last week.  The issue is Rutgers onlyhas 9 sacks (at 1.1/game) on the year which 122^nd in the nation and PFF data supports Rutgers defensive front does not rank well so it’s unlikely Rutgers will be able to pressure Altmyer without blitzing.

2-The efficiency stats show Illinois pass offense is more likely to have success against Rutgers pass defense than vice versa pointing to a bigger day for Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer.

Illinois rates an impressive 12^th in the nation in pass efficiency offense, while Rutgers pass efficiency defense is a terrible 129^th in the nation and last in the Big Ten.  I expect big passing numbers from Altmyer.

Why take the points with Rutgers: 

Rutgers continues to try running the ball, but they just don’t do it efficiently averaging only 3.6 yards/carry, so their success will continue to depend on the pass game. 

1-Though I just said Illinois will have more success in the pass game, similar stats show Rutgers will also be able to move the ball well in the passing game vs Illinois:

• Rutgers is last in 3.5 sacks/game allowed (28 total) in the Big Ten, BUT Illinois is only 79^th in the nation in sacks at 1.9/game (15 total) so may not be able to take advantage of this weakness
• Illinois is only 114^th in the nation in pass efficiency defense yielding 17 passing TDs and Rutgers with a good QB and 3 great receiver weapons to throw to all with over 400 yards receiving led by KJ Duff’s 761 yards, which is 4^th in the nation (1^st in the Big Ten)

Big Jeff’s Call: Again, we have two really weak defenses here and the stats clearly point to the Illinois offense having more success than Rutgers.  But will it be enough to win by more than 13.5 is the question.  Turnovers obviously could play a huge role in the answer, but both these teams are about the same there as Rutgers is +1 and Illinois is +2 for the year.

After Illinois last had a bad loss on the road vs Indiana, they bounced back the next week at home and upset USC.  This is a similar scenario having a disappointing loss at Washington and now returning home but as a big favorite. 

Also, this is only Illinois 2^nd game coming off their first bye so they should still be very fresh while Rutgers will be playing their 4^th game in a row and 3^rd road game in the last 4 weeks, so I feel they still be fresh. These intangibles favor Illinois and I am taking them to cover the 12.5 and win by two touchdowns.   Illinois 38 Rutgers 24.  Confidence: Medium

Game 3: #2 Indiana -21.5 vs MARYLAND (51.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

Maryland is 4-3 overall and 1-3 in the Big Ten and are coming off a bye after a brutal stretch of losing three straight games by a total of 10 points to Washington, Nebraska and UCLA.  This has to frustrate Maryland fans as Mike Lockley’s struggles in October continue where he is 1-8 in October since the start of the 2023 season. 

On the flip side though, he has a very young and talented team with many freshmen starting that has been competitive in every game and shows a big potential upside.  Despite the struggles, I believe his job is safe given he brought in the young talent and Maryland could lose many of those players if they make a coaching change.

Maryland’s remaining schedule is 12^th toughest in the Big Ten (28^th in the nation) according to PFF with games after Indiana to include at Rutgers, at Illinois and home vs Michigan and Michigan State.  Getting to 6 wins to make a bowl game is very viable for the Terps.

Indiana is #2 in the AP Poll and 8-0 overall and 5-0 in the Big Ten coming off a 56-6 thrashing of UCLA.

The Hoosiers have only the 65^th toughest schedule remaining in the nation per PFF and it’s the second easiest in the Big Ten (behind only Illinois) and after Maryland play at Penn State, home vs Wisconsin and at Purdue.  The pro-SEC crowd likes to point out those 4 teams have a Big Ten record of 1-17.  That’s fine.  Indiana has proven they are legit winning at both Iowa and Oregon.

Indiana is 5-3 against the spread this year while Maryland is 5-2 vs the spread including covering 4 straight times which includes the current 3 game losing streak.

Per ESPN SP+, Indiana is now ranked #1, jumping Ohio State after the big win over UCLA and Maryland is 37^th (with a 18.2 rating point difference between the two teams).

Why Indiana Can Cover:

1-Indiana’s defense is playing elite across all levels and only strong balanced offenses likely have a chance to succeed and Maryland does not have that with an ineffective run game and an offense that throws 62.4% of the time. 

Indiana’s defense is the strength of the team and has crazy good numbers ranking 3^rd in the nation and 2^nd in the Big Ten (behind Ohio State) only giving up 10.9 points/game, in total defense are 7^th in the nation and 4^th in the Big Ten (243 ypg), 12^th in national pass defense (157 ypg) and 7^th in national run defense and 2^nd in the Big Ten (85 ypg).  Plus, they rank 8^th best in the nation in Pass Efficiency Defense and have 11 interceptions.  And IU is second in the nation in sacks with 29.

Plus, on an individual basis their Pro Football Focus numbers don’t show a single starter as a weakness (all players are in the “green”) with 10 of 11 starters with at least a 74.4 season PFF rating (rating of 60.0 is considered average). Only junior cornerback Jamari Sharpe is under a 70 rating at 68.8. 

Maryland’s total offense is just 13^th in the Big Ten with the worst Big Ten rushing offense averaging only 101 yards/game, so they rely on their passing attack ranked 8^th in the Big Ten (249 ypg) to move the ball. 

More downside for Maryland on offense is their offense only ranks 107^th in the nation in Passing Efficiency and their offensive line per PFF has 3 of 5 starters ranked below average per PFF (from 57.1 to 60.2).

All this data points to how Indiana will have answers to what almost any offense wants to throw at them and Maryland’s inability to run will greatly limit their chance to consistently move the ball vs Indiana.

2-Indiana’s offensive balance makes them very hard to stop led by a confident and efficient quarterback allowing them to adapt their game plan for what other teams are trying to take away.  As Joel Klatt likes to say, “they have answers”.

Indiana has the 6^th best offense in the nation (2^nd in the Big Ten) in total yards, 6^th in the Big Ten in passing offense and 2^nd in rushing offense with an impressive 231 yards/game.   All led by the current consensus favorite for the Heisman Trophy in quarterback Fernando Mendoza who leads the nation with 24 TD passes and only 3 interceptions. ESPNs passing efficiency metric has Mendoza with the 3^rd best QB rating in the nation.

Indiana is scoring 45.4 points/game which is 3^rd in the nation and other than 20 points they scored vs. Iowa, they have scored 63, 30, 38 and 56 in their other Big Ten games to average 41.4/game in conference.

3-Mike Locksley’s record in November at Maryland is 5-17 (6 seasons starting in 2019) and not much better than his 1-8 October record since 2023.  

For whatever reason, later in the season Locksley’s Maryland teams underperform vs earlier in the season and that means fans typically end the season with poor last impressions.

Why take the points with Maryland: 

1-Despite losing three in a row, Maryland’s worst loss is by 4 points to a good 6-2 Washington team and they have covered 4 games in a row so getting 21.5 points at home feels very reasonable to cover.

Yes, Indiana has been blowing out teams but Maryland has shown a great ability to keep games close.

2-Maryland’s defense generates lots of turnovers and they have a really good defensive line and only teams with very strong lines have been able to slow down Indiana’s offense the past two years.

Maryland’s defense is the 6^th best in the Big Ten giving up only 17.3 points/game and are 9^th in Big Ten rushing defense and 11^th in pass defense, which may not be that impressive, but their secret is they have the nation’s leading turnover margin/game at +11 (+1.57/game) with 14 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries.   And on offense they only have 5 turnovers.  Plus, Maryland is 19^th in red zone defense.

Maryland’s defensive line ranks very strong in PFF performance across all starters with all 4 players in the Top 54 among Big Ten defensive linemen so the Terps are talented upfront and can challenge a good Indiana offensive line.

Given Indiana’s offensive firepower, Maryland definitely could use a few turnovers to have a chance to win or keep it close, but the challenge is that Indiana also has a good turnover margin ranking 11^th in the nation at +8.

Big Jeff’s Call: It’s imperative for Maryland to get off to a good start given their confidence can’t be super high losing 3 in a row and when Indiana gets off to a fast start look out because once they get rolling they stay hyper aggressive as UCLA and Illinois found out.  Maryland also is probably going to have to win the turnover battle, which they have been great at.

The biggest challenge here though is without a strong run game, I don’t know how Maryland is going to keep drives alive and score much.  That mean’s Indiana will have the ball a lot wearing down the young Maryland defense.  And given Coach Locksley’s struggles in Oct/November it’s hard to bet against the Hoosiers. 

I assume Maryland will score no more than 20 so Indiana would need to score 42 (their Big Ten average) to cover which is very doable.

I will take Indiana to keep the freight train rolling and win and cover the 21.5 points.  Indiana 42 Maryland 17.  Confidence: Medium

Game 4: #21 MICHIGAN -21.5 vs. Purdue (50.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

At 6-2 overall and 4-1 in the Big Ten, Michigan is right in the hunt for a playoff berth needing to win out vs. the 12^th easiest remaining Big Ten schedule per PFF that includes the final game vs. Ohio State and games at Northwestern and at Maryland.

Michigan has had a couple clunker games on the road vs Oklahoma and USC but other than those they have mostly looked good and continue to get better.  Justice Haynes is the key in my view.  When he plays, Michigan’s offense has explosive ability that they lack without him.  Against Michigan State, Haynes went for 152 yards and 5.8 yards/carry and is 4th in the nation with 857 yards at 7.1 yards/carry.

Note: It’s uncertain if Justice Haynes will be available for the Purdue game.

Purdue has lost 13 Big Ten games in a row (last winning in last game of 2023) and is 2-6 overall and 0-5 in the Big Ten after almost getting their first Big Ten win last week but losing to Rutgers 27-24 and have lost 6 straight games overall.

Their remaining schedule ranks as the most difficult in the nation and after Michigan includes playing vs #1 Ohio State, at Washington and home vs.#2 Indiana.  Quite the gauntlet and Purdue is likely looking at finishing 2-10 which would be a pretty big disappointment in year one under Barry Odom.

Purdue is 3-5 against the spread this season including not covering 4 of their last 5 games and Michigan is also 3-5 against the spread and not covered in 3 of their past 4 games. ESPN SP+ ranks Michigan 21^st in the nation and Purdue 77^th (15^th in the Big Ten).

Why take the points with Michigan:

1-Michigan is likely to win the turnover battle, getting valued extra possessions to help cover this large spread.

Purdue is last in the Big Ten in turnover margin (-16, 131^st in the nation), while Michigan is 2^nd in the Big Ten at a +9 turnover margin (with only 6 giveaways), which is tied for 8^th in the nation.

One of the biggest issues is the 10 interceptions Purdue has thrown including 7 from main starter Ryan Browne who is completing only 59.5% of his passes with a TD/INT ration of 8/7.   Purdue is not talented enough to overcome such sloppy play.

2-Michigan’s defensive front four are all very good players across the board and are a big mismatch for Purdue’s struggling offensive line which will limit how well Purdue can move the ball.

Though Michigan lacks the elite players they had last year like Mason Graham, they still are very good and clearly among the best defensive lines in the Big Ten.  All 4 players rank very well per Pro Football Focus, and they should manhandle the Purdue offensive line who really only has their center sophomore Bradyn Joiner rated clearly above average.  This is a mismatch.

3-Intangibles favor Michigan here like knowing you if you win out you can still play in the Big Ten Championship game AND make the playoffs, while Purdue would need to win out vs the toughest remaining schedule in the nation just to make a bowl game.

Why Purdue Can Cover: 

1-Michigan in general does not blow out people making giving 21.5 to Purdue an awful lot of points.

Other than the 60-point home win over Central Michigan, Michigan’s biggest wins have been 17 over both New Mexico and Washington, 14 over Wisconsin and 11 over Michigan State.  So, they have covered 21.5 points once this year against a MAC school.

2-Of course, Michigan’s offensive strength is their 3^rd rated Big Ten rushing attack (220 ypg) led by Justice Haynes, but Purdue is actually solid against the run providing evidence Purdue can relatively contain the Michigan offense.

While Purdue is only 13^th in the Big Ten in rushing defense (149 ypg), going deeper they only give up 3.95 yards/carry, which actually is more respectable 11th in the Big Ten (59^th in nation).  It only makes sense because with just two wins Purdue is mostly always playing from behind and therefore other teams are running the ball quite a bit.

3-Moving the ball has not been a major problem for Purdue and Michigan’s total defense is not as good as you would think so better red zone execution for Purdue would help get the cover.

Purdue’s total offense actually ranks 9^th in the Big Ten (389 ypg) and their offense has good balance (10^th in passing, 11^th in rushing) and Michigan is 9^th in total defense in the Big Ten (yielding 307 ypg).  

The issue is Purdue ranks last in Red Zone offense in the Big Ten (.733 conversion rate), while Michigan is 3^rd in the Big Ten (26^th in nation) in Red Zone defense (.783 conversions).  What happens when Purdue gets it in the red zone is a huge key to this game.

Big Jeff’s Call: Neither team has covered well both with 3-5 records vs the spread and Purdue have failed to cover 4 of the last 5 and Michigan 3 of the past 4.  With the intangibles of this game favoring Michigan, I highly doubt Purdue can come close to pulling off an upset.

But if you leave out the Central Michigan blowout, Michigan’s biggest win is 17 points and Purdue’s offense is not bad, so I like Purdue to cover.  Michigan 31 Purdue 14.  Confidence: High.   And I am making this my LOCK CITY pick of the week.

Game 5: #23 USC (Away) -6.5 vs. NEBRASKA (58.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

Last week we had three virtual playoff elimination games in the Big Ten.  This week we have one and it’s USC at Nebraska.

USC is still squarely in the playoff hunt at 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the Big Ten and coming off a bye after a disappointing 34-24 loss at Notre Dame.  The challenge is USC can’t lose another game, and they still have to play at Nebraska this week, host a super hot and underrated 6-2 Iowa team and a huge November 22 matchup at #6 Oregon.

Nebraska is 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten and I believe they will make the playoffs if they win out over USC, at UCLA, at Penn State and home vs Iowa the Friday after Thanksgiving which could be a playoff clinching game for both teams.  PFF has Nebraska’s remaining schedule as 16^th toughest in the nation.

Nebraska has 28 straight losses vs AP Top 25 teams (which USC is) and the win over now 17^th ranked Cincinnati does not count since they were unranked at the time.

For the year USC is 4-3 against the spread but have covered two straight. Nebraska is 2-5-1 against the spread and have not covered the last 4 games.  ESPN SP+ has USC ranked 16th and Nebraska is 27^th (with 4.2-point difference)

Why USC can cover: 

1-Nebraska is the 2^nd worst in the Big Ten in allowing sacks and USC excels in generating sacks ranking tied for 4^th in the Big Ten (and 15^th in nation with Ohio State) indicating USC is capable of totally disrupting Nebraska’s 4^th best Big Ten passing offense.

Nebraska gave up only 1 sack last week to Northwestern after giving up 9 the prior week to Minnesota but at 3.25 sacks/game this is still a major weakness.   USC has 21 sacks on the year, and it really is a group effort with 4 different players with either 3 or 3.5 sacks so Nebraska can’t just game plan against any one player.

Nebraska relies much more on the pass for offensive success averaging 272 yards/game so USC’s sack rate is a major concern. 

 2-Nebraska’s 2^nd best in the nation’s passing defense seems perfectly equipped to contain USC’s nation’s leading pass offense but that is in question given USC has not faced a passing offense rated in the Top 50 in the nation.

The stats are impressive for Nebraska giving up only 128 passing yards a game and ranking 4^th in the nation in pass efficiency defense.  But this offense for USC led by quarterback Jaiden Maiava (68% completions, 15 TDs, 4 interceptions) might have the best receiver core next to Ohio State and a play caller in Lincoln Riley who knows how to take advantage of his weapons.  This might be the first really true test of that Nebraska pass defense.

Note: USC’s running game is also very effective averaging 5.9 yards/carry but has been hurt by leading rusher Waymond Jordan’s injury from the Michigan game and USC badly missed him in their last game at Notre Dame rushing for only 68 yards. 

Why take the points with Nebraska:

1-Potentially overriding any statistics favoring USC is the fact that they have struggled playing Big Ten road games and especially traveling East which makes it hard to analyze this game using the available statistical data – plus it’s going to be cold.

Last year traveling east USC lost at Michigan, Minnesota and Maryland, plus lost at Washington but beat UCLA to finish 1-4 in Big Ten road games.  This year they lost at Illinois but did win at Purdue and of course also lost at Notre Dame.

Adding it up they are 1-6 in Big Ten road games, and 1-4 in Big Ten road games traveling east, with the lone win against bottom feeder Purdue.  USC is just a different team on the road the past two years which makes it hard to predict they will play to their full capability. 

Plus, the game is in Lincoln, Nebraska in November and it’s projected as a high of 50 on Saturday with the game starting at 6:30 pm Central time so the temperature will be in the chilly 40’s, though the wind is expected at 5 to 10 mph which should not inhibit each team’s passing attack.

2- The spread is within a single score, and it appears Matt Rhule has broken the one score hex at Nebraska going 3-1 in one score games so far this year.

If the game is tight as expected, Nebraska should now have confidence they can win the game.

Big Jeff’s Call: On a neutral field, I probably take USC by 2 touchdowns over Nebraska.  But can we expect to assume USC with more experience will play better in these game multiple time zones away?  They did just lose by only 10 on the road to a very good Notre Dame team.  Plus, they have had two weeks to prepare, and this will be Nebraska’s 5^th straight game without a bye. 

I am going to go against the intangibles that favor Nebraska here and take USC’s superior talent and ability to put pressure on Dylan Raiola which can generate mistakes to pull off the cover.  USC by 10.  USC 34 Nebraska 24.  Confidence: Low