Each week Big Jeff will give my picks for all Big Ten conference games and the one I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” pick of the week. Football is all about two things – Matchups and Motivation (which includes the team’s mental state) – and that is the key criteria I use in deciding my picks. Vegas is great at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise but let’s get to it starting with a quick review of last week.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (after Week 10)
- Last Week: 6-2 vs Spread; WON “Lock City” pick
- Year-to-Date: 29-21-1 vs Spread; 3-4 in “Lock City” picks of week
Week 10 Pick Summary
- #4 Ohio State -3.5 vs. #3 PENN STATE – The Pick: Penn State LOST
- Minnesota -3 vs. #24 ILLINOIS – The Pick: Minnesota WON
- Northwestern -1 vs. PURDUE – The Pick: Purdue LOST
- #1 Oregon -14.5 vs. MICHIGAN – The Pick: Oregon WON
- #13 Indiana -7.5 vs. MICHIGAN STATE – The Pick: Indiana (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week) WON
- NEBRASKA -6.5 vs. UCLA (away) – The Pick: UCLA WON
- IOWA -3 vs. Wisconsin – The Pick: Iowa WON
- USC (away) -2.5 vs. WASHINGTON – The Pick: Washington WON
I had another one of those magic weeks going 6-2 and I felt like this was a hard week of games. For the year, I am 8 games over .500 (29-21-1) which is very difficult to do.
Big Jeff’s Week 10 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Big Jeff’s Football
Big 10 Football Mid-Season Report Card – Big Jeff’s Football
Here are the games for Week 11: (Odds by ESPNBET on 11/06/24).
Week 11 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week
Big Ten Conference Games (6)
- Iowa -5.5 vs. UCLA (Friday Night) – The Pick: UCLA
- #2 OHIO STATE -38 vs. Purdue – The Pick: Purdue
- Minnesota -6 at RUTGERS – The Pick: Rutgers
- #8 INDIANA -14 vs. Michigan – The Pick: Indiana (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week)
- #1 OREGON -25 vs. Maryland – The Pick: Maryland
- #6 PENN STATE -13 vs. Washington – The Pick: Washington
Iowa -5.5 vs. UCLA (Friday Night)
UCLA has won two in a row and
After a brutal early schedule that saw UCLA play six teams with a current record of 41-11, UCLA was 1-5 overall and 0-3 in the Big Ten. Now after winning two in a row, the Bruins have a real chance to get to six wins and a bowl game. The record of the final four teams they play is a much more pedestrian 19-16. UCLA should go into this home game confident and dangerous.
Iowa is playing well, and in their last game ran all over Wisconsin – literally – outgaining them in rushing 330 to 124 yards with Iowa averaging 6.2 yards/carry in a 42-10 dominating win that was their biggest over Wisconsin since 1968. With quarterback Cade McNamara injured, Iowa started new quarterback Brendan Sullivan, and he gives the Hawkeyes the added dimension of being a better runner and had 58 yards rushing vs. the Badgers. At 6-3, Iowa has a good chance to get to 8 or 9 wins.
Why Iowa Can Cover: UCLA’s offense moved up from 17th to 16th in the Big Ten (passing Michigan) after their win over Nebraska and average only 309 yards/game. UCLA remains last in the Big Ten in rushing and are very reliant on passing the ball behind QB Ethan Garbers where they are 8th in the Big Ten at 235 yards/game.
Garbers has thrown 10 TDs but has 9 interceptions and being one-dimensional vs. Iowa and reliant on the pass is not a good combo going against the Hawkeyes very disciplined secondary who play a hard to penetrate zone coverage. A key will also be how well Iowa can run the ball vs UCLAs rushing defense which is 3rd best in the Big Ten (100 yards/game). Iowa has the Big Ten’s leading rusher in Kaleb Johnson and the best rushing attack in the Big Ten.
Why take the points with UCLA: Iowa’s Big Ten leading rushing attack goes against a strength of UCLA who has the 11th best rush defense in the country and 3rd best in the Big Ten, so they are quite capable of containing Iowa and RB Kaleb Johnson and limiting Iowa’s scoring.
Garbers and the 8th rated UCLA passing attack should find success against Iowa’s surprisingly only 9th rated Big Ten passing defense as long as Garbers is patient and takes what the Iowa zone defense gives him. Iowa counts on quarterbacks to get impatient and greedy.
Maybe most important is UCLA has some true momentum going here and know the importance of this game in making a bowl and continuing their season turnaround.
Big Jeffs Call: The game will be played at 11 p.m. Iowa time. Iowa does not play as well on the road and is coming off an emotional rivalry win over Wisconsin. UCLA has won 2 in a row and is building confidence and should get a further lift playing at home which means I really like UCLA from a mental perspective. I think UCLA can keep this a low scoring, tight game and contain Iowa’s rushing attack just enough. If UCLA gets it into the mid to upper 20’s they can win. I say they come short of that and cover +5 but don’t win. Iowa 24 UCLA 21.
#2 OHIO STATE -38 vs. Purdue
Games like these with huge point spreads are not easy to predict and definitely are not good to bet on. If it is a blowout, you don’t know how long a coach will keep their starters in and if the underdog can score a late touchdown for a “backdoor cover”.
Ohio State is coming off an important and emotional comeback win at Penn State that they had to have to position them for a national title run. It’s difficult to predict how Ohio State will come out in the first half against Purdue. Will it be a slow start or will they carry the momentum and start off strong?
Purdue is coming off a winnable home game to Northwestern losing 26-20 in overtime and are 1-7 overall and on a seven-game losing streak. The Boilermakers are likely looking at making a coaching change potentially even before the end of this season, so what will be the mental state of the Purdue coaching staff and players? Many players may be more focused on deciding if they want to enter the transfer portal vs. trying to save the season.
Why Ohio State Can Cover: Purdue is the worst team in the Big Ten and has the 14th rated Big Ten offense and last rated defense including the worst run defense by far giving up 203 yards/game. Ohio State has their reworked offensive line with guard Donovan Jackson moving over to left tackle, so I expect the Buckeyes will want to continue to build confidence in the run game which will be needed in the playoffs and commit to it more in this game.
While this may keep the score lower the Ohio State’s 7th rated national defense is giving up only 12.0 points a game and against Penn State only gave up six points to their offense. The Buckeyes are very capable of keeping Purdue under 10 points. Against highly rated defenses Purdue has scored 7 (Notre Dame), 10 (Nebraska), 6 (Wisconsin), and 0 (Oregon). Let’s assume Purdue scores 7 this game. Ohio State would need 45 points for a push which could happen if they continue to score in the 4th quarter. Notre Dame scored 66 and Wisconsin 52 against Purdue.
Why take the points with Purdue: The Boilermakers need to hope Ohio State doesn’t come out with fire in their gut. It helps this is an early Noon start. Purdue does run the ball well ranking 9th in the Big Ten with 149 yards/game and the hope is Purdue will lean on the run and convert third downs to keep the ball away from the Buckeyes high powered offense. This would help keep the score lower and prevent the Buckeyes from scoring in the mid to high 40’s to get the cover.
Big Jeff’s Call: I would not bet this game. The key will be what is Purdue’s mental state knowing they are likely looking at a coaching change in about a month. I don’t like Ohio State covering 38 points though coming off the high of beating Penn State and take Purdue here. Ohio State 45 Purdue 10.
Minnesota -6 at RUTGERS
Two teams going in different directions. Minnesota is red hot with four straight wins including last week on the road vs. #24 Illinois and is 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Big Ten. Rutgers has lost four in a row and is 4-4 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten. Rutgers has one of the easiest schedules they will ever have in the new Big Ten avoiding 3 of the 4 playoff ranked teams (Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana) making the losing streak even more disappointing.
The Scarlet Knights have been beset with many injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and have not been able to overcome those. With four games left and two at home, it would be very bad for Rutgers bowl hopes in getting to six wins to lose this game.
Why Minnesota Can Cover: The Gophers are doing all the little things right to win football games. They call it “complimentary football” which is such an unexciting term but perfectly describes the traditional recipe to win Big Ten football games.
Minnesota’s offense is only ranked 14th in the Big Ten at 337 yards/game, but they have the 4th ranked Big Ten defense and are holding teams to 291 yards/game. Key to the Gophers success is their +12 turnover ratio which is sixth in nation and first in the Big Ten. They have only 7 turnovers with 19 takeaways, led by a ball hawking secondary that has generated 15 interceptions which is 2nd in the nation.
Early in the year, the Gopher passing attack led by Max Brosmer carried the offense but now their run game is getting going under sophomore running back who had 131 yards at 6.0 yards/carry against Illinois including 58 yards receiving. Minnesota needs to continue to ride their winning formula to cover the six.
Why take the points with Rutgers: Minnesota relies on turnovers to win games and fortunately Rutgers is pretty good at taking care of the ball with a +3 turnover ratio and quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has only five interceptions through 8 games. Despite Rutgers completing just 54% of their passes, their offense has not been the problem ranking 10th in the Big Ten at 25.8 points/game. The defense is the issue ranking 15th in the Big Ten giving up 24.8 points/game.
The hope for Rutgers is to simply play old school football well which is what Greg Schiano likes to do. Rutgers is still 5th in the Big Ten in rushing at 182 yards/game and needs to ride running back Kyle Monangai who averages 5.4 yards/carry and stick with the run to cover the six points.
Big Jeff’s Call: I love how Minnesota is playing but giving up 6 points on the road in the Big Ten between two teams that like to play traditional, physical football is a lot to ask. If the Gophers continue to get a couple turnovers they can do it. But Rutgers does not turn the ball over much and I am banking on that in this game to allow Rutgers to cover the +6, but the Gophers win. Minnesota 24 Rutgers 20.
#8 INDIANA -14 vs. Michigan
Undefeated (9-0) Indiana has covered 8 games in a row all by at least 4 points and the only game they didn’t cover this year was the opener against Florida International. They have covered the spread by at least 25 points in 4 games (W. Illinois, Charlotte, Nebraska and Michigan State). This is the first time Indiana has been favored over Michigan since 1968 and since 1967 Indiana has only beaten Michigan twice (1987 and the 2020 Covid year).
Defending National Champion Michigan is 5-4 overall and 3-3 in conference and coming off a 38-17 home loss to #1 Oregon. With three games left, Michigan needs one more win to get to six wins and become bowl eligible.
Why Indiana Can Cover: Indiana is #1 in the Big Ten and #8 in the nation in total offense at 476 yards/game. Their passing offense is 4th in the Big Ten at 284 yards/game behind the stellar play of Heisman candidate quarterback Kurtis Rourke who has 19 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions and is ranked #2 in the nation in pass efficiency according to NCAA.com.
Indiana should have great success vs. Michigan’s disappointing pass defense which ranks just 61st in the nation in pass efficiency defense, and 13th in the Big Ten in pass yards given up despite having one of the better defensive lines and pass rushes in the nation. Indiana is also #2 in Big Ten rushing so if Michigan tries to take something away, Indiana’s well-balanced offense can adapt.
Why take the points with Michigan: Michigan has finally solidified their quarterback position with Davis Warren returning as the starter the past two games and he has 3 touchdowns with no interceptions after starting the first 3 games of the year where he had 2 TDs and 6 interceptions. Michigan still ranks 2nd to last in Big Ten offense at 299 yards/game and but moved up to 2nd to last in Big Ten passing over Iowa with 134 yards/game.
Warren has averaged 144 yards passing and 20 attempts the past two games, so the Wolverines still rely mostly on their run game which is a respectable 8th in the Big Ten at 165 yards/game behind leading rusher Kalel Mullings 710 yards at 5.4/carry. Michigan needs to run the ball effectively and have Warren not turn the ball over as Michigan is still -5 in turnover ratio for the year. If Michigan can win the battle upfront, they should cover the +14 points.
Big Jeff’s Call: This will be a rowdy home crowd with many in the stands out for blood from losing so many games to Michigan through the years. Indiana has covered 8 games in a row and until they break that streak, I will continue to take the Hoosiers minus the points and call this my Big Jeff’s Lock City pick of the week. Indiana 35 Michigan 18.
#1 OREGON -25 vs. Maryland
Oregon continues to roll along with great consistency and stands 9-0 and #1 in the nation. Meanwhile, Maryland (4-4 and 1-4) is coming off a bye week and is the opposite of consistent and you never know what you’re going to get from the Terps. Maryland does have a strong road win early in the year 27-13 over 4-4 Virginia. They also got thumped 37-10 at home to 4-5 Northwestern.
Why Oregon Can Cover: Maryland is one dimensional leading the Big Ten in passing but only 14th in Big Ten rushing at 119 yards/game. The Ducks pass defense is very good and 5th in the Big Ten giving up 173 yards/game. The best equivalent for Maryland’s pass offense against Oregon might be UCLA who are 8th in Big Ten passing but gained only 125 yards against the Ducks on 20 pass attempts from QB Ethan Garbers. Oregon is well equipped to limit the Terps passing attack.
Meanwhile, Maryland is last in the Big Ten in pass defense at 276/game while Oregon is second in the Big Ten in passing at 299 yards/game behind Heisman contending quarterback Dillon Gabriel. I am going to assume Oregon will want to push the envelope on Gabriel’s Heisman possibility and will continue to throw the ball in the second half increasing the chances to cover 25 points.
Why take the points with Maryland: Maryland can score at 28.6 points/game good for 7th in the Big Ten and only 6.7 points less than Oregon who is 3rd in the conference. The Terps behind quarterback Billy Edward Jr. leads the Big Ten in passing at 314 yards/game. If they can score close to 20 points, it means Oregon will have to get closer to 45 points to cover the -25 which won’t be easy since Oregon has not scored more than 40 since week 3 vs. Oregon State.
Big Jeff’s Call: The key question on this one is how many points can Maryland score? Excluding Ohio State, Oregon has given up an average 10 points/game to Big Ten teams. Assuming they hold Maryland to 10, the Ducks need to score 35 plus for the cover. But Oregon has had a tendency to shut things down more in the second half and 4th quarter if they get out to a big lead, with only one game scoring more than 40. I am counting on that here and will take Maryland +25 barely. Oregon 37 Maryland 14.
#6 PENN STATE -13 vs. Washington
Penn State (7-1, 4-1) is coming off an emotional and disappointing rivalry loss to Ohio State 20-13. But with the 12-team playoff they have a lot still play for and unlike past years I would think they bounce back pretty well. Washington (5-4, 3-3) is coming off an emotional rivalry home win over USC 26-21 themselves to stop a two-game losing streak. They need to win one of their final three games to become bowl eligible.
Why Penn State Can Cover: Penn State fans have been dying to get their night, whiteout game and that is what Washington gets to experience. This might be a new environment for many of the Huskies, unless those who were on the team when Washington played at Oregon in 2022. Any lingering mental issues for Penn State should be uplifted by a raucous night home crowd.
The key matchup will probably be Penn State’s ability to run the ball against a Washington rushing defense ranked only 14th in the Big Ten giving up 150 yards/game, since the Huskies have the statistical best defense in the Big Ten against the pass at 142 yards/game. The Nittany Lions are third in Big Ten rushing at 188 yards/game and have two good tailbacks they can rotate.
Magnifying why this will likely be a focus is Penn State struggled greatly against Ohio State with only 42 yards from their running backs and will want to get the running game going for the end of season and beyond. Another positive factor for Penn State is their red zone defense ranks 2nd in Big Ten (and 15th in the nation) giving up scores 72% of the time and only 8 TDs in 18 red zone trips. Meanwhile, Washington’s red zone offense is only 101st in the nation scoring 80% of the time but with just 19 TDs in 35 trips.
Why take the points with Washington: Washington is balanced on offense and 7th overall in Big Ten offense at 429 yards/game and are 5th in passing and 10th in rushing but running back Jonah Coleman is 4th in Big Ten rushing with 889 yards and at a healthy 6.3 yards/carry. They are well equipped to score some vs PSU, but they must execute in the red zone.
After a rough four game stretch where kicker Grady Gross was 5 for 12 in field goals, the last two games he is 3 for 3. We discussed above Washington’s strength in pass coverage and that is a relative weakness for the Nittany Lions so Washington’s ability to stop the run will be a must for the Huskies to cover +13.
Big Jeff’s Call: Washington is 0-3 on the road with an average loss of about 14 points a game – right about this spread. But I had guessed this spread would be in the high single digits so -13 is too high for me but I like the Nittany Lions to win. Penn State 27 Washington 17.
