Big Jeff’s Week 11 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week and the Narrative Impact from using a Different Top 25.

Week 10 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 11 picks, let’s first do a comprehensive review of how I did in Week 10.

(Odds by FanDuel on 10.30.25).

General Comments:

• I had my fourth straight 3-2 week to move to 2 games over .500 at 26-24 on the year and also won my Lock City pick of the week which was Purdue covering getting 21.5 points from Michigan who won by only 5.
• I am now 5-2 on the year in Lock City games – which is again the one game prediction I am most confident in.
• I also have gone 3-2 now 6 of the past 7 weeks.
• Let’s do a quick what I got right and wrong in Week 10 and draw some insights.

What I Got Wrong in Week 10: 

• I always start with what I got wrong, which this week was again 2 games. 
• First, I had Penn State getting 20.5 points from Ohio State and thought the Buckeyes would win by 17 but while I got it right that Penn State would score 14 points, the Buckeyes had too many big pass plays and won by 24 (38-14).
  • Despite all Penn State’s struggles, they always play Ohio State tough and I thought given PSU DC’s Jim Knowles coaching under Ryan Day for 3 years that his inside knowledge of the Ohio State offense would be an advantage for Penn State helping hold the Buckeyes offense relatively in-check.
  • I also felt Penn State’s defense ends including Dani Dennis-Sutton and Chaz Coleman would be able to get pressure on QB Julian Sayin and disrupt that great OSU passing attack.
  • In fact, Penn St. was able to generate a lot of pressure on Sayin but his pocket presence and quick release is so good he overcame it to have a huge day throwing for over 300 yards with 4 touchdowns and only 3 incompletions – the performance vaulted him to become the favorite for the Heisman and evaluators are just gushing over him.
  • The big thing with Penn State on defense is how mediocre they are given that has been the constant source of great play for them for really 10 years – they gave up 480 yards to the Buckeyes, and their defense is now rated just 10^th in the Big Ten in both Total Defense and scoring defense (21.8 ppg).
• The second game I got wrong was believing USC would win by more than 6.5 at Nebraska, but they only won by four (21-17) as their passing game really struggled under Jayden Maiava as he went 9-23 for 135 yards and an interception.
  • That poor performance from Maiava is not a total shock though as this matched up the USC national leading pass offense vs Nebraska’s 2^nd best in the nation pass defense and I wondered if based on not facing prolific passing attacks if the Huskers pass defense was really that good but they showed it’s no fluke in this game.
  • Also something had to give in this game as USC was 1-6 in Big Ten road games and 1-4 when traveling East so winning in a tough environment was a huge step for the Trojans.
  • On the other side, Nebraska was looking to break a streak of 28 straight losses to AP Top 25 teams that is now 29 straight, and the Huskers are now 3-2 in one score games this season.
  • Maybe even bigger for Nebraska though (at 6-3) is losing Dylan Raiola to a season ending injury means getting to 8 or 9 wins will be very hard since backup QB TJ Lateef struggled to move the ball so Nebraska will need to lean even more on running back Emmett Johnson who ran for 165 yards and is firs in the Big Ten and second in the nation in rushing with 1,002 yards (5.7 ypc).
  • Finally, of course at 6-2, USC remains in the playoff hunt and I definitely feel if they win out at 10-2 they will be in the 12-team field.

What I Got Right in Week 10:

• First,  I took Illinois to cover 12.5 points over Rutgers which they did easily in a big 22 point win at home (35-13).
  • Illinois moved to 6-3 and dominated this game outgaining Rutgers 445 to 312 with a well balanced attack of 235 passing and 210 rushing yards.
  • Illinois is who I thought since the pre-season – a very well coached legit Top 25 team which they can get back to with games left vs Maryland, at Wisconsin and vs Northwestern.
  • Rutgers couldn’t run the ball once again with only 59 yards making that pass reliant offense too easy to defend.
  • At 4-5 to make a bowl game Rutgers needs to find 2 wins amongst games left vs Maryland,  at Ohio State and vs Penn State.
• The second game I got right was taking Indiana to outscore Maryland by more than 21.5 which they easily did winning by 45 (55 to 10) to bring the Maryland losing streak to 4 games.
  • Despite a relatively slow start including an interception of IU QB Fernando Mendoza, the Hoosiers are playing like a machine and maybe most impressive is their running game which went for 367 yards at 7.1 ypc for a pretty good Maryland defense.
  • Indiana’s run offense is now 1^st in the Big Ten and 6^th in the nation at 246 yards/game with 2 running backs over 600 yards (Kaelon Black and Ryan Hemby) and freshman Khobie Martin with 368 yards.
  • IU won turnover battle 5-1
  • Maryland entered the game second in the nation with a +11 turnover margin but Indiana reversed that winning the turnover margin 5-1. 
  • At 4-4, Maryland still has a chance to make a below with winnable games at Rutgers and at Michigan State upcoming.
• The final game I got right was my Lock City pick of taking Purude and 21.5 points at Michigan and Purdue lost by only 5 (21-16). 
  • For Purdue, it’s the 14^th straight loss in Big Ten play and with remaining games vs Ohio State, at Washington and vs. Indiana they likely don’t win another game to finish 2-10.
  • Despite that, the team was much more competitive against one of the toughest schedules in the Big Ten where it’s likely they will finish playing games against six Top 25 opponents – this season has shown progress.
  • For Michigan, it was a disappointing performance overall, including from freshman QB Bryce Underwood who was 13-22 for only 145 yards and 1 interception.
  • Per ESPN, Underwood ranks 11^th in Big Ten quarterback ratings and PFF has him 15^th in Big Ten quarterback offense grades which frankly is pretty disappointing given all the hype he has received.
  • But Michigan is 7-2 and if they win out including the last game at home vs the Buckeyes, they should make the playoffs at 10-2.

Big Jeff’s Week 10 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Forde-Yard Dash: Why We’re Already Annoyed About the CFP Rankings

Before we get to my picks this week, let’s talk about a special topic that is:

How does the Big 10 vs SEC comparison narrative change if you use ESPN SP+ Top 25 and NOT the AP Top 25?

• As Big Ten fans know, supporters of the SEC who by definition try to downplay how good the Big Ten is Love to tout how deep and tough the SEC is based on how many teams are Ranked in the Top 25 and therefore how many games the SEC plays against Top 25 teams.
• And they contrast that, with how few Top 25 teams that Big Ten teams play.
• This is frustrating for Big Ten fans since so many of us believe the AP Poll is very flawed and has a lot of built in biases.
• I also know the AP poll is slow to change their perceptions on teams and based on the polls the last couple years the sportswriters still view the SEC as superior and give their teams the benefit of the doubt.
• So what if we looked at a different poll to better judge how difficult SEC vs Big Ten schedules are?  And that is what I have done.
• TABLE 2 below shows the AP poll on the left and on the right is this Week’s ESPN SP+ Top 25 list that Bill Connelly does.  Big Ten teams are in green cells and SEC in brown cells.

• The AP has 9 SEC teams and 6 Big Ten teams, those teams are #1 Ohio State, #2 Indiana, #6 Oregon, #20 USC, #21 Michigan and #24 Washington.
  • The SP+ has 9 SEC still but also 9 Big Ten teams.
  • Remember, the SP+ model is a statistical based model and does factor in last year’s results though as the year proceeds that gets much less weight and factors things in like how well statistically play games including game control. 
  • So SP+ is not perfect but I would argue it’s better than the flawed AP poll.
  • The SP+ has the Top 3 as OSU, Indiana and Oregon – supporting the belief the top of the Big 10 really is the best.
  • SP+ also has USC at #12, Iowa is #17, where they really belong but are not in the AP poll at all which is stupid, Washington #19, and Michigan #21.
  • sand Illinois is #25 at 6-3 and then outside the Big Ten Florida State is #24 at 4-4.
• Now let’s look at the impact of using the SP+ Top 25 that has 9 Big Ten teams vs the AP Poll with 6 teams (See TABLE 3 below).

• Using the AP Top 25, of the total 216 games this year Big Ten teams will play, 62 of them or 28.7% will be against Top 25 ranked teams.
• Using the SP+ Top 25 that number jumps to 88 games or 40.7% of games vs. Top 25 teams – a huge difference.

Next, to look at the impact of this on narratives, See TABLE 4 below, I looked at how this would look for the Top 5 ranked teams in the Big 10 and SEC from the first playoff rankings.

• There is a lot of information here so I will try to summarize.
  • If you take the Top 5 Big Ten teams from the playoff rankings, their 12 game schedules show they would play 23% of their total games (or 14 of 60) vs AP Top 25 teams.
  • But if you use the SP+ Top 25 the percent of games vs Top 25 teams jumps from 23% to 40% – a HUGE difference.
  • For the SEC it’s more simple, because both the AP Poll and SP+ Rankings have the exact same 9 SEC teams ranked in the Top 25.
  • So the Top 5 SEC teams from the playoff rankings play 33% of their total games (20 of 60) vs both AP Top 25 and SP+ Top 25 teams.
  • Bottom line is if you use the SP+ Top 25, the top 5 teams in the Big Ten’s schedules look SIGNIFANTLY HARDER than the Top 5 SEC team schedules.
  • This would significantly change the narrative from those who use the AP Poll to claim how superior the schedules are in the SEC.
  • Taking a step back from this.  The SP+ Top 25 have 9 teams each from the SEC and Big Ten, but the SEC plays one less conference game, but the Big Ten has 2 more teams – I could have done the analysis for all 16 SEC teams but I think it’s safe to say based on this the SEC and Big Ten would come out about equal as far as strength of schedule using this method.
• A couple other highlights from this table:
  • Among Big Ten Top 5 teams, USC has the hardest schedule with 50% or 6 of their 12 games vs Top 25 teams.
  • Ohio State and Oregon are second with 42% vs Top 25 (5 of 12 games). IU and Iowa are at 33%.
  • For the SEC best 5 teams, both Alabama and Georgia have the hardest schedule playing 42% or 5 of 12 games vs Top 25 teams.
  • And Who has the Toughest Schedule in both Conferences based on this?
  • For the Big Ten, as we have been saying all year, it’s poor old Wisconsin with 8 of 12 games or 67% vs Top 25 teams.
  • For the SEC, it’s Florida with 58% or 7 of 12 games vs Top 25 teams.

Now for the final topic let’s get into my 2 Big Ten Picks of the Week.

Week 11 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 11.6.25.

This week we have 7 games in the Big Ten.  I am going a different route here in Week 11 and over the final 4 weeks of the season.  Instead of choosing 5 games per week to do a deep dive analysis and prediction, I am going to choose just 2 games per week with one my Lock City pick (the game I am most confident in) and a second game I deem the “best” Big Ten game of the week. 

I am doing this since I think my 5 picks are too redundant to JR and Zach’s analysis of the games on Wednesday/Thursdays and it frees up more time for me to cover other hopefully more interesting topics on the podcast.

So listed below are the odds for all 7 games and highlighted rows for the 2 games I will analyze in detail.

Big Ten Game of the Week: #6 Oregon -6.5 vs. IOWA (43.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

Both teams are coming off bye weeks in this huge clash at 3:30 pm Eastern on CBS.  The 43.5 over/under is tied for lowest among Big Ten games (along with Nebraska at UCLA).

Oregon comes in 7-0 overall and 4-1 in the Big Ten with their sole loss at home to Indiana in Week 7 and since then won at Rutgers and beat Wisconsin at home.  This is a huge game for Oregon in multiple ways.  They must win to keep their hopes to still make the Big Ten Championship game but maybe more important with Penn State losing 5 games in a row they are no longer ranked and fact Oregon does not have a single ranked win. 

Iowa is not ranked but they should be and Oregon’s best win beyond Penn State is over SP+ number 60^th ranked Northwestern.  Oregon’s schedule to date has been ranked easiest in the Big Ten according to PFF at 74^th best in the nation but the remaining slate ranks 11^th toughest in the nation and includes games vs #20 USC and at #24 Washington.   

Iowa is 6-2 overall and 4-1 in the Big Ten and beyond Ohio State and Indiana might be playing the best in the Big Ten over the past 5 weeks and has won 3 in a row with their last win a 41-3 dismantling at home of Minnesota. 

ESPN SP+ has Oregon ranked #3 in the nation behind Ohio State and Indiana and 3^rd in the nation in defense.  SP+ has Iowa ranked 17^th in the nation including the 6^th best defense so the numbers clearly show Iowa is quite under-rated.  Oregon’s SP+ ratings points are 10.0 better than Iowa’s (27.1 vs 17.1).

For the year Oregon is 5-3 against the spread but have not covered 2 of their last 3 while Iowa is 5-2-1 against the spread and have covered 5 of their past 6 games to show how well they have been playing. 

Why Oregon Can Cover:

1-Oregon is one of the few Big Ten teams who has NOT struggled traveling multiple time zones East to play conference games with a 6-0 record the past 2 seasons.

Last year, Oregon traveled East beating Purdue by 35, Michigan by 21 and only struggled beating Wisconsin by 3 but that was late in the season.   This year Oregon won at Northwestern by 20, had the huge overtime 6-point win in the White Out night game at Penn State, then crushed Rutgers 56-10.

That’s 6-0 with an average win of 22 points demonstrating the great coaching Oregon has and how they thrive in these environments.  If Oregon doesn’t cover, it will be from other reasons than travel and especially with the game at 3:30 pm EST.

2-Oregon’s front 4 on defense is highly rated and their statistics for the year and individual games show they are very capable to hold the Iowa rushing offense in check which will limit the Iowa scoring.

PFF has all four Oregon starting defensive linemen ranked well overall and in the Top 24 of all Big Ten defensive linemen and 3 of the 4 are in the Top 13 of Big Ten linemen in run defense.  This will be a great matchup vs Iowa’s elite offensive line.

Oregon is #1 in Big Ten pass defense and the appear good but not great in run defense ranking 8^th in the Big Ten but some of that is because the Big Ten has such good run defenses as the Ducks only give up 115 yards/game at 3.34 yards/carry.  Against, good run offenses their numbers look pretty good as well:

• Against Indiana’s 1st rated Big Ten run offense, Oregon held them to only 111 yards at 3.0/carry.
• Against Northwestern’s 5^th Big Ten rated run offense, Oregon gave up 178 yards at 4.8/carry – but that did include a 79 yard run (by Dashun Reeder) – removing that it was only 2.8/carry
• Against Penn State’s 9th rated Big Ten run offense, Oregon allowed 139 yards at 4.0/carry

3-While the Iowa defense is great, Oregon has probably the most balanced offense in the Big Ten that is second in scoring and a great QB with many weapons that makes it extremely difficult for any defense to keep in check.

Oregon averages 41.3 points/game, averages 247 passing yards/game (9^th in Big Ten) and 237 rushing yards/game (2^nd in Big Ten).  This kind of balance as Joel Klatt likes to say means Oregon has answers to whatever an opposing defense tries to take away.

Dante Moore has been excellent ranking 3^rd in the Big Ten in quarterback rating (per ESPN) and is completing 71% of his passes with 19 TDs and 4 interceptions.

Indiana is really the only team that contained Oregon holding them to 20 points since I forgive the Ducks for only scoring 21 vs Wisconsin as they game had really bad weather conditions.

Why Take the Points with Iowa:  

1-In general, is Iowa very underrated as they are 6-2 overall but if not for a missed 42-yard 4^th quarter field goal and QB Mark Gronowski getting hurt in the second half against Indiana there is a high chance they win that game, are 7-1 and have a ranking in the lower teens.

It took a 49-yard big time touchdown play from Elijah Sarratt with 1:28 left in the game to allow Indiana to break a 13-13 tie to win the game.  Iowa is the only team to play #2 Indiana within a one score game.   And 2 of Iowa’s last 3 wins vs rivals Wisconsin and Minnesota were by 37 and 38 points.  This team is really good and getting better and may be the most underrated team in the nation.

2-The closest team to Oregon’s balanced offense that Iowa has played is Indiana’s second best Big Ten total offense (505 ypg) and Iowa held the Hoosiers to 337 total yards of offense and only 20 points providing evidence they can contain the Ducks as well.

Indiana has the highest scoring Big Ten offense (46.4 ppg), the best run offense (246 ypg) and the 5^th best Big Ten passing attack (259 ypg) and yet Iowa held them in check including allowing only 104 total yards rushing at 2.7 yards/carry.

Iowa’s defense is statistically excellent and capable of stopping a team like Oregon.  Iowa is 2^nd in the nation and in the Big Ten (only behind Ohio State) in total defense allowing 235 yards/game, and have the 3^rd best Big Ten run defense allowing only 84 yards/game. 

The pass defense is also very good rating 4^th in the Big Ten giving up 151 yards/game behind DC Norm Parker’s vaunted zone pass defense that is 6^th in the nation (3^rd in Big Ten) in Passing Efficiency defense.

There is no glaring weakness in the Iowa defense with all 11 starters rated by Pro Football Focus with an overall “Green” status that is well above average.

3-Behind the statistically best Big Ten offensive line anddespite the worst passing offense in the Big Ten Iowa has consistently run the ball well and raised their scoring average to 9^th in the Big Ten providing evidence they are capable of putting enough points on the board to keep up with Oregon.

It’s been consistent throughout the year as PFF currently ranks all 5 Iowa line starters in the Top 10 across all Big Ten offensive linemen which is incredible.   In run blocking all 5 starters rank in the Top 15 in the Big Ten.  This is a big reason why despite a one-dimensional offense Iowa is 6^th in Big Ten run defense at 185 yards/game and 4.8 yards/carry behind leading rusher Kamari Moulton (435 yards, 5.3 ypc) and supplemented by QB Mark Gronowski’s 313 rushing yards (4.1 ypc).

Iowa ranks 123^rd in the nation in Pass Efficiency Offense, with only Wisconsin worse in the Big Ten, that includes only 5 TDs and 5 interceptions but yet Iowa’s strong defense, good running game and style of play has overcome that as they rank a solid 9^th in Big Ten scoring offense at 31.3 ppg,

This Iowa offense is not prolific but it’s much better at putting points on the board with scoring the last 4 years looking this with national rank in parenthesis:

• 2022: 17.7 ppg (123^rd)
• 2023: 15.4 ppg (129^th)
• 2024: 27.7 ppg (72^nd)
• 2025: 31.2 ppg (53^rd)

This is far from those terrible Iowa offenses of the past.

Big Jeff’s Call: This game is really going to come down to if Iowa is able to successfully run the ball vs. Oregon because Iowa has the Big Ten’s worst pass offense and Oregon has the best pass defense so it’s hard to see Iowa having extensive success throwing the ball. 

If Iowa can’t run it, then it will give Oregon’s prolific offense more opportunities helping wear down the Iowa defense and the Ducks have the type of playmakers to make Iowa pay for that.  In that scenario, I don’t see Iowa’s offense keeping up in scoring.

There is evidence on both sides supporting the question if Iowa can have success running vs Oregon.  This is a very tough call since I really like both these teams. 

Weather could be a major factor in this one as well as the forecast is for likely a steady rain during the day which is perfect weather for Iowa’s style of play.  If this were good conditions, I would take Oregon since the Ducks know they need a big win to improve their playoff standing.  

But the weather tells me this is Iowa’s type of game. So I am taking Iowa here calling the Ducks to win by only 3 though I would not be surprised if Iowa wins.  Oregon 20 Iowa 17.  Confidence: Low

Big Jeff’s “Lock City” Pick of the Week: #2 Indiana -15.5 PENN STATE (48.5 FanDuel O/U)

Background:

This is a matchup of two teams who are basically doing 100% role reversals and play the FOX big noon game this week.

Indiana comes into Happy Valley ranked #2 in the AP Poll and #2 in the first released college football playoff rankings are 9-0 overall and 6-0 in the Big Ten.  Curt Cignetti is an incredible 21-2 at Indiana with the only two losses on the road vs Ohio State and Notre Dame in the playoffs last year.

Indiana is coming off a 55-10 domination at Maryland.  This will be the key game for Indiana to win to finish unbeaten and make the Big Ten championship game as after this they have 2-6 Wisconsin at home and play at 2-7 Purdue.  In fact, their last 3 Big Ten opponents have an aggregate 0-16 Big Ten record.

Meanwhile, Penn State is 3-5 overall and 0-5 in the Big Ten after losing at Ohio State 38-14 last week.  They are hoping to break their 5-game losing streak at home and this will be the first start for redshirt freshman QB Ethan Grunkemeyer at home after road losses vs Iowa and OSU.If Penn State loses to IU, they will need to win their last 3 at Maryland, vs Nebraska and at Rutgers to get to 6 wins and a bowl game. 

What is more shocking?  Indiana being undefeated and #2 in the Playoff seeding or Penn State who opened the year ranked #2 having James Franklin fired and looking at maybe not making even a bowl game?

ESPN’s SP+ has Indiana ranked #2 including the #1 offense and #2 defense and amazingly has Penn State still rated 22^nd which really shows how much weight is put on prior years and talent level. In SP+ ranking points Indiana is 14.5 points better than Penn State.

Year-to-date Penn State is 1-7 vs the spread and only covered at Iowa, while Indiana is 6-3 vs the spread including covering 3 of their last 4 and 6 of their last 8.

Why Indiana Can Cover:

1-Indiana is leading the nation in scoring margin and are destroying teams who are either middle of the pack or lower in the Big Ten standings which is Penn State.

Indiana’s average win is 31.0 points/game with Texas Tech second at 26.6, Oregon third at 25.1 and Ohio State 4^th at 24.0.   They had close games, winning by 5 at Iowa and by 10 at Oregon.  But then in Big Ten games vs Illinois, Michigan State, UCLA and Maryland, who have a combined Big Ten record of 7-15, Indiana has won by 53, 25, 50 and 45 for an average of 43/game.

Penn State still has a lot of talent, but they are not playing well on either side of the ball and Indiana has not treated teams like this well.

2-With a first year starting QB, Penn State wants to run the ball and Indiana has the Big Ten’s best run defense and their front four is playing great, while Penn State’s line has weak spots indicating Penn State is likely to struggle to move the ball and score vs Indiana. 

Indiana defense is the strength of the team ranking 7^th in the nation (4^th in the Big Ten) giving up 248 yards/game but their run defense has been elite ranking 4^th in the nation and 1^st in the Big Ten giving up 80 yards/game.

Pro Football Focus has Indiana’s entire starting 11 on defense ranked high across the board by PFF with all players strongly above average (in the “Green”), while Penn State’s offensive line has been disappointing with two of their starters in center Nick Dawkins and right guard Anthony Donkoh ranking very average per PFF. 

It’s certainly not a bad offensive line but some felt coming into the year Penn State might have the best line in the conference and Penn State’s rushing attack is only 9^th in the Big Ten (180 ypg).  If Penn State can run the ball well, I don’t know how they are going to score much vs Indiana.

3-Indiana’s offense is 2^nd best in the Big Ten and well balanced and their Big Ten leading rushing attack especially is a bad matchup for Penn State’s 14^th rated Big Ten rush defense.

Indiana has a good passing game behind Fernando Mendoza ranking 5^th in Big Ten pass offense at 259 yards/game.  But it’s their run offense that is 6^th in the nation is what has been elite averaging 246 yards/game (5.7 ypc, 10^th in nation) and they have a deep running back room with 2 players (Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby) who have over 600 yards rushing and emerging freshman Khobie Martin who has 368 yards (at 7.2 ypc).

Add to this QB Fernando Mendoza has 220 yards as well running the Hoosiers run/pass option plays well making them even harder to defend.  All this against Penn State’s very disappointing run defense giving up 159 yards/game.

 Why Take the Points with Penn State:  

1-Penn State’s defensive line is still very talented and played well vs Ohio State generating good pressure on Julian Sayin, while Indiana’s offensive line has had some injuries and WR Elijah Sarratt might not play creating a scenario where Penn State makes IU more one-dimensional and reliant on their run game holding down the scoring.

Among all defensive linemen per PFF end Chaz Coleman ranks 5^th and end Dani Dennis Sutton 7^th in Big Ten defensive rankings.  It is the defensive tackles who have struggled more with highly regarded Zane Durant only ranking 43^rd among Big Ten defensive tackles.  But again, it’s a talented group capable of high-level play.

Indiana has star left guard Drew Evans out with an injury replaced by Zen Michalski who is not nearly highly rated and right guard Bray Lynch has struggled a lot this year so this could open the door to Penn State maybe winning the battle up front vs IU.

2- There is hope in that this talented Penn State roster will start to play to their potential and maybe that happens this week as PSU is going to get a badly needed and big lift playing at home for the first time since the James Franklin firing.

I think the crowd will be very supportive as Franklin and not the players were the source of fans frustrations.  Penn State fans are going to want to show their support for interim coach Terry Smith and these players, but key to taking advantage of this is getting off to a good start vs Indiana.

Big Jeff’s Call:  I think this is a bad matchup for Penn State with a redshirt freshman quarterback they don’t totally trust forcing them to try to mostly run against that elite Indiana run defense.

Penn State is 1-7 vs the spread and IU is 6-3 and I was surprised the 15.5 spread wasn’t even higher given what Indiana is doing to teams. In games like this, until Indiana’s level of play goes down I can’t bet against them so I will take the Hoosiers and -14.5 points to cover and win easily in my Lock City pick of the week.  Indiana 34 Penn State 14.  Confidence: High.