Periodically Big Jeff will give my “Hot Takes” on various Big Ten football topics. This week’s includes evaluating Wisconsin letting go of their OC and the new Curt Cignetti contract.
Week 11 Big Ten Football Hot Takes (November 11) – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Jeff’s Big Ten Football Hot Takes (Nov. 6) – Big Jeff’s Football
Week 12 Big Ten Football Hot Takes
1. Luke Fickell did not make a mistake in trying something new offensively at Wisconsin, but his next (critical) OC hire needs to be closer to Badger roots.
Wisconsin football’s Luke Fickell fires OC after loss to Oregon
Luke Fickell was hired as head coach by Wisconsin in November of 2022. Almost everyone in the industry called this one a “Home Run” hire. Some felt it was the best hire of the entire hiring cycle that year. Athlon Sports for example in their 2023 season preview had Fickell as the #1 rated hire in the 2023 coaching cycle, giving it an A+ saying “Fickell’s ties to the Big Ten ensure a quick transition in Madison”. And that is exactly what Badger fans, and the rest of the Big Ten expected – an immediate and positive impact.
But ten games into Fickell’s second year in Madison, it has been anything but smooth. The Badgers are 5-5 overall, 3-4 in the Big Ten and have lost three in a row after their 16-13 defeat to the Oregon Ducks on Saturday night in Madison. This was after a disappointing 7-6 record in his first season. To put his performance into context, here are the records for recent new Wisconsin football coaches in their first two full years.
First two-year records at Wisconsin for recent Badger coaches.
- Luke Fickell (2023/24): 12-11 (with 2 games left in 2024)
- Paul Chryst (2015/16): 21-6 (finished season ranked 21st and 9th)
- Gary Anderson (2013/14): 19-7 (finished season ranked 22nd and 13th)
- Bret Bielema (2006/07): 21-5 (finished season ranked 7th and 24th)
- Barry Alvarez (1990/91): 6-16 (though this was a total rebuild with Wisconsin’s record the prior two years before Alvarez of 3-19 including 2-14 in the Big Ten)
Only Barry Alvarez had a tough time of it when taking over the program, but this was when Wisconsin was coming off a program low point under Don Morton and was at the bottom of the Big Ten along with Northwestern. But the first three coaches after Alvarez all had very high-level success, so when Fickell was hired the assumption was he would easily duplicate that since his background was better than all those hires and even included leading Cincinnati to a semi-final College Football Playoff appearance vs. Alabama in 2021.
At Cincinnati, Fickell took over a program that was 4-8 in the year before his hiring and in two years had them 11-2 and finished ranked #24 in the final AP poll. In his six years at Cincinnati, he went 57-18 overall (.760) and in his last couple years with the Bearcats was considered by most a top candidate for any of the major football power job openings. However, because of his strong Midwest roots the thought was staying in the Midwest would be the best fit for him.
That is why when Wisconsin surprisingly hired him it was considered a coup, and expectations were high that he could elevate the Badgers even higher than his predecessors. The Badgers issue was they were consistently very good but clearly not great and they were unable to make the playoffs. Their good records and results were made easier from the relative weakness of the Big Ten West division. Once the Big Ten split into East and West divisions in 2014, the East went 10-0 over the West and that included four losses by Wisconsin in the championship game.
Though it may not be fair to cite this statistic since all Big Ten teams except Michigan recently have struggled with Ohio State, but the Buckeyes over the past 15 years or so have been considered the benchmark in the Big Ten yet the Badgers have lost 10 in a row to Ohio State going back to their upset of the #1 Buckeyes in 2010 in Madison.
The Ohio State vs. Wisconsin games have been more competitive than not, but the clear difference in most cases was the obvious talent difference of Ohio State in the skill positions on offense like Wide Receiver and Quarterback, making them much more explosive and able to come back from deficits. To a smaller degree but still noticeable was Ohio State’s talent superiority in the secondary and especially the cornerback position. Wisconsin’s comparison to Ohio State is really a proxy for where the Badgers stand in relation to the top programs in the nation and to potentially challenge for a national championship.
I believe this is what led Fickell to feel the best way to get better skill talent and become more potent offensively to take Wisconsin to the next level was to try something new and beyond the traditional Badger power running game. He had a strong relationship with Air Raid guru Phil Longo who had great offensive success at North Carolina for four years as Offensive Coordinator and surprisingly hired him before the 2023 season in December 2022.
Former Wisconsin Offensive Coordinator Phil Longo.
But the Air Raid offense simply never gained momentum and was hamstrung by starting quarterback injuries as well and ended up causing great frustration for the fan base. Beyond the quarterback issues, the offense is built to spread out and stress the defense both vertically and horizontally. To do this though, you need many athletic receivers who have the explosiveness to make defenders miss in space and Wisconsin hasn’t been able to find enough of these difference makers.
In addition, they didn’t seem to flip their offensive line talent from their traditional bigger road grader type linemen to more athletic ones better equipped to block outside the tackles and further downfield.
So, consider the Air Raid a failed experiment that maybe was not the best idea given Wisconsin’s greater difficulty in getting the players needed to run it. I would maintain it was worth the attempt though, if you wanted to see if a different approach could work since now, we know.
On the downside for Fickell though, this means his hiring of the next Offensive Coordinator must be a success or his job is at risk. Given the stakes, it would be shocking if he didn’t lean back to the traditional Wisconsin power run game backed by a top-level complimentary defense, but there is no reason they can’t execute a more modern version of that formula. Michigan actually won a National Championship with that same formula, but the difference was they had an NFL caliber quarterback (J.J. McCarthy) to execute it.
That will be the challenge for Wisconsin. How to get significantly more talented quarterbacks and enough firepower from the wide receiver position to challenge schools with great defensive athletes like Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Michigan have. It will come down to recruiting and selling a new vision to high school athletes and potential college transfers. Russell Wilson #2, where are you? The new Offensive Coordinator and his staff will need to be as adept at recruiting as the X’s and O’s of running an offense.
2. Indiana made the absolute right decision with the new Curt Cignetti contract – but expect more like 8-4 than 11-1 seasons.
Giving out big, long-term contracts in college football is a risky proposition. There are plenty of examples of where this has come back to haunt Athletic Directors and Universities. The recent poster child of this was Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher who was fired in November of 2023 after six years in College Station and compiling a 45-15 overall record. The buyout was for $77 million eclipsing the previous high of $21.4 million after the 2020 season for Auburn’s Gus Malzahn.
Indiana Hoosier football in 2024 has been the talk of the college football world as new coach Curt Cignetti has done something unprecedented in recent history. Taking a program that had the most losses in the history of Division 1 football, had a 3-24 Big Ten record the past 3 seasons, and had only two winning Big Ten seasons over the past 32 years – and turning them into a 10-0 team (7-0 in Big Ten) that has a chance to make the first 12-team college football playoff. It literally feels like a miracle and has Indiana fans shocked and giddy at the same time.
The formula for Cignetti has been to put Production over Potential in getting players who have proven themselves at the college level. This includes getting 14 transfers players from his previous stop at James Madison who have provided many starters, helped fill out the roster and shortened the time it took to change the culture at Indiana into one that expects to win every week. In addition, Cignetti has brought over the majority of his coaching staff who have been together for several of his coaching stops now allowing them to better hit the ground running with any new school.
The Curt Cignetti Indiana Football Lesson – Production over Potential – Big Jeff’s Football
During last week’s bye week for the Hoosiers, Indiana Athletic Director Scott Dolson used it as an opportunity to lock in a new contract for Cignetti for eight years at an average of $8 million per season plus an annual $1 million retention bonus running through the 2032 season. The deal basically doubled his income, but the buyout amount is unknown at this time. This was a pre-emptive move as it was expected many programs would go after Cignetti, and still likely will, but it will be much more difficult to do given the increased contract value.
Some wonder if Indiana jumped the gun here after less than one year on the job? The argument is Indiana took advantage of the 14 talented transfers from James Madison this year, but that won’t be easily replicated in future seasons. And Indiana’s easy schedule this year has been a key enabler of their great record. Indiana has yet to play and beat a ranked team and the cumulative record of the 10 teams they have played is 41-61 including only one team with a winning record (6-5 Washington).
But Indiana really had no choice but to pay whatever it took to keep Cignetti since they have already seen the positive results in increased attendance and concessions, excitement around the university, an increase in applications and the knowledge that up to 90% of revenues for the athletic department are likely to come from football. It is the lifeblood for other sports and will help “raise all boats” for Indiana athletics.
No contract comes without risks, but Cignetti’s successful track record helps mitigate that. Plus, what people outside of Indiana don’t understand is what will the continued expectations be? At other schools who have had more success, once you go 10-2 or 11-1 it raises the expectations and fans expect more seasons exactly like it. I don’t think that is the case at Indiana. Given the school’s poor football history, I think the vast majority of the fan base understands we are not going to be a Top 10 type team consistently. Is it possible that could happen? Yes, but that is not the expectation at all from the majority of Indiana fans.
Plus, with the addition of the four Pac 12 schools (Oregon, USC, UCLA and Washington), future Big Ten schedules are going to be much more challenging. If Indiana continues to be very competitive and consistently goes to bowl games and challenges and even beats some of the top teams periodically, Cignetti will remain a hero and frankly will be considered the best Indiana football coach of all time.
Given Dolson’s stated commitment to investing in the football program beyond just re-signing Cignetti, I think all these things are very possible especially because for a period in the late 80’s and early 90’s under Bill Mallory, Indiana did have good success making bowl games 6 out of 8 years including winning two bowl games. Then again briefly under Tom Allen in 2019 and 2020 where Indiana made two straight bowls.
Expect more like 8-4 seasons vs. 11-1 seasons, but that level of success will have Indiana fans satisfied the Cignetti contract is money well spent. And he will be considered a legend if he isn’t already.
Curt Cignetti Explains Decision To Sign New Contract at Indiana
3. Oregon’s close call at Wisconsin should not raise alarm bells.
This Saturday night at Camp Randall Stadium in front of a fired-up Badger crowd, Oregon found themselves in a tussle against Wisconsin down 10 -6 at the half. They eventually prevailed 16-13, getting a game clinching 24-yard field goal with 2:36 left to close the scoring. It was tight though and physically Wisconsin looked like they belonged with Oregon on both sides of the ball.
The performance had some questioning Oregon a little bit, and Wisconsin lamenting a key Braedyn Locke second half interception (again) and lack of execution in general on offense. The reality though is Wisconsin was coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for the Ducks and in front of their intimidating home crowd played with great energy.
Meanwhile, Oregon was coming off eight straight weeks of Big Ten games including several long road trips that had them looking pretty drained. They also were missing a few key players like WR Tez Johnson and Defensive End Jordan Burch.
Despite all that and not looking so great on the field, the Ducks outgained the Badgers 354 to 226 yards and overcame a key first quarter red zone interception of Dillon Gabriel that could have had Oregon up 10-0 early in the game. It’s those type of plays that are needed for a 13.5-point underdog like Wisconsin to potentially pull the upset. And in the first half in general Gabriel seemed a little off.
In a long, 12-game season no matter how good you are, teams are going to have games where they are off a little like Oregon was. It’s just football and Oregon had not been tested in a while, so they were due. It’s nothing to worry about and the close game can even be beneficial in the long run making Oregon better battle tested.
Now, as for coach Dan Lanning’s decision to try a fake punt up by three with under two minutes in the 4th quarter in Wisconsin territory ………well, that’s another story.
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