Each week Big Jeff will give my picks for all Big Ten conference games and the one I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” pick of the week. Football is all about two things – Matchups and Motivation (which includes the team’s mental state) – and that is the key criteria I use in deciding my picks. Vegas is great at what they do, so this is never an easy exercise but let’s get to it starting with a quick review of last week.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (after Week 11)
- Last Week: 3-3 vs Spread; Lost “Lock City” pick
- Year-to-Date: 32-24-1 vs Spread; 3-5 in “Lock City” picks of week – maybe this should be called “Non-Lock City”?
Week 11 Pick Summary
- Iowa -5.5 vs. UCLA (Friday Night) – The Pick: UCLA Won
- #2 OHIO STATE -38 vs. Purdue – The Pick: Purdue Lost
- Minnesota -6 at RUTGERS – The Pick: Rutgers Won
- #8 INDIANA -14 vs. Michigan – The Pick: Indiana (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week) Lost
- #1 OREGON -25 vs. Maryland – The Pick: Maryland Won
- #6 PENN STATE -13 vs. Washington – The Pick: Washington Lost
Week 11 Big Ten Football Hot Takes (November 11) – Big Jeff’s Football
Big 10 Football Mid-Season Report Card – Big Jeff’s Football
Here are the games for Week 12: (Odds by ESPNBET on 11/14/24).
Week 12 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week
Big Ten Conference Games (7)
- WASHINGTON -3.5 vs. UCLA (Away) – Friday Night – The Pick: UCLA
- #2 Ohio State -28.5 at NORTHWESTERN – The Pick: Ohio State
- ILLINOIS -2.5 Michigan State – The Pick: Illinois (Big Jeff’s LOCK CITY pick of the week)
- #4 Penn State -28.5 at PURDUE – The Pick: Purdue
- USC -9 vs. Nebraska – The Pick: Nebraska
- MARYLAND -5.5 vs. Rutgers – The Pick: Rutgers
- #1 Oregon -14 at WISCONSIN – The Pick: Wisconsin
WASHINGTON -3.5 vs. UCLA (Away) – Friday Night
This is a battle of first year coaches. UCLA has won three in a row and at 4-5 overall needs to win 2 of their last 3 games at Washington, and home vs USC and Fresno State. Part of their rough start was playing a brutal early schedule but now they are playing with high confidence on both sides of the ball under first year coach DeShaun Foster.
Washington is 5-5 overall and needs one more win for bowl eligibility and has this home game vs. UCLA, then a trip to #1 Oregon making this game really a “must win” game. It’s been a roller coaster season for first year coach Jedd Fisch who won 3 of their first 4, lost a game they should have won at Rutgers, avenged their loss to last year’s national champion Michigan, got soundly beat in two straight road games, beat rival USC, then got pounded at Penn State. Whew. If the pattern holds, they should play well against UCLA.
Why Washington Can Cover: Washington is a different and more confident team at home where they are 5-1 vs. being 0-4 on the road. The only home loss was to Washington State by 5 in which most people think the Huskies blew that game.
From a statistical standpoint, Washington is better than UCLA. Washington ranks 7th in the Big Ten in total offense, while UCLA is 15th, and the Huskies defense is 7th in the Big Ten, while UCLA is 13th. Washington is pretty well balanced on offense ranking 6th in Big Ten passing and 12th in rushing, but the rushing stats have declined through the year which is a concern.
Washington’s weakness is in the trenches. Penn State dominated the Huskies upfront, especially their offensive line. That’s a concern since last week UCLA shut down Iowa’s run game winning the battle up front. However, UCLA has the 2nd worst rated pass defense in the Big Ten so to win the Huskies are going to have to execute well in the passing game and have their offensive line give QB Will Rogers enough time to throw.
2023 Oregon at Washington Game
Why take the points with UCLA: The path for UCLA is to win the battle upfront, just like they did last week vs. Iowa. I was especially impressed last week with UCLA’s defensive line against Iowa and think they can be very disruptive against Washington’s suspect offensive line. UCLA’s run defense is 3rd in the Big Ten but 2nd to last in pass defense, so again the UCLA front needs to win and get pressure on Husky QB Will Rogers.
On offense, though UCLA statistically does not look great, they have been a different unit the second half of the season. QB Ethan Garbers is heating up after having some rough early games and in the three-game winning streak has 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and is averaging 268 yards/game. Also, he has taken care of the ball much better lately despite UCLA -5 for the year in turnover margin.
Even more exciting for UCLA is despite being ranked last in the Big Ten in rushing offense almost all year, vs. a good Iowa defensive front last week, they got their run game going piling up 211 yards at 5.4 yards/carry led by TJ Harden’s 125 yards. Teams like Indiana and Penn State have shown you can definitely run on this Huskies defense. UCLA has also won two Big Ten road games at Rutgers and Nebraska so play well on the road.
Big Jeffs Call: This is really a must win for Washington but is no less important for UCLA in being bowl eligible making this a tough call and one I would not bet on. On a neutral field I would love UCLA here, but Washington plays much better at home. Key is the Washington offensive line holding their own. I am going to say Washington plays just well enough to get the win BUT NOT cover. Washington 24 UCLA 21.
#2 Ohio State -28.5 at NORTHWESTERN
My philosophy is avoiding betting these types of big spreads. It looks like Ohio State has addressed their offensive line concerns when left tackle Josh Simmons got hurt against Oregon as they won a tough game at Penn State and then last week shut out Purdue 45-0. With big games coming up against #5 Indiana and then arch-rival Michigan, the big risk here is Ohio State is looking ahead to those games.
Northwestern is coming off a bye after beating Purdue 26-20 in overtime. The Cats are 4-5 and need two more wins to become bowl eligible with games vs. Ohio State, at Michigan and home vs. Illinois. They will not be favored in all three, so need to find two upsets.
Why Ohio State Can Cover: Ohio State has the top ranked defense in the Big Ten and in the nation giving up only 251 yards/game and 10.7 points/game. Northwestern has the worst rated offense in the Big Ten at 288 yards/game. The Wildcats rank 16th in both Big Ten rushing and passing so they don’t do anything really well offensively and are going to struggle to score.
The evaluation starts with how many points can the Cats score. Let’s assume they can get 10 points which might be optimistic. Then we ask will Ohio State score 39 points to cover the -28.5? On offense Ohio State is 2nd in the Big Ten averaging 455 yards/game and average 38.6 points/game. OSU is 5th in passing and 3rd in rushing. Northwestern is 12th in Big Ten defense and give up 21.0 points/game. If Ohio State scores a little over their average and holds the Cats to 10 points, they cover.
The weather can be a factor here as well and it looks good for Saturday in Chicago, though a little windy, so that likely won’t limit scoring, unlike two years ago when these two teams played in a windstorm and Ohio State won only 21-7.
Why take the points with Northwestern: The formula to beat Ohio State is to contain explosive plays, especially vs their talented receiver core, and run the football to shorten the game and keep it close. The Northwestern defense is very fundamentally sound so I think they can contain the big plays and force Ohio State to be patient in marching the ball down field and hope to get some turnovers (that’s from you Will Howard) where the Cats are +2 for the year.
On the downside, Northwestern is only 16th in Big Ten rushing and average only 3.7 yards/carry. They will need to have success on first down and have mobile QB Jack Lausch use his legs to help convert 3rd downs where they are last in the Big Ten at a 29.7% 3rd down conversion rate so that must improve in this game. NW is 8th in fourth down conversions though at 58.3% and they may need to get aggressive on 4th downs to keep the Buckeyes offense off the field.
Another positive though, is the Cats rush defense is 7th in the Big Ten and give up only 108 yards/game so maybe they can make Ohio State a little more one dimensional and reliant on the pass, while making them take what the defense gives. I suspect we will see many two high safety looks from Northwestern.
Big Jeff’s Call: Will the Buckeyes be looking ahead to Indiana and Michigan? Because if they come out focused, I can’t see Northwestern slowing them down. If the weather were poor I would like the Cats. But it’s not, so I think Ohio State’s depth and firepower will be too much for the Cats and take OSU to cover. Ohio State 42 Northwestern 7.
ILLINOIS -2.5 Michigan State
Both teams are coming off bye weeks. Illinois is 6-3 and already bowl eligible but have lost two in a row, while Michigan State is 4-5 overall and needs two wins to make a bowl with games at Illinois, and home vs. Purdue and Rutgers. The Spartans is also on a two-game losing streak so both these teams need this game to build some positive momentum.
On offense and defense, statistically both teams are more middle of the pack to lower in the Big Ten. The big difference between the two is turnovers and mistakes. Michigan State is -9 in turnover margin for the season, which is last in the Big Ten and 123rd in the nation. The key culprit is QB Aidan Chiles who for the year has 8 touchdowns but 11 interceptions and many of them in game critical moments.
Illinois is +4 in turnover margin which is tied for 35th in the nation. Michigan State also is 15th in Big Ten penalty yards at 60 yards/game, while Illinois is just 4th at 38 yards/game.
Why Illinois Can Cover: Illinois has the 10th rated Big Ten offense, while Michigan State has the 10th rated Big Ten defense. The Illini defense is only 14th in the Big Ten, while the Spartans offense is only 13th. Those stats point to a relative standoff. One key difference is Red Zone conversions where MSU is last in the Big Ten at 71.0% and Illinois is 9th with a much better 85.7 scoring conversion rate.
With the stats close, turnovers will be a major factor where the Illini have shown they have a big edge (+4 turnover margin vs. -9 for MSU) and Illinois is at home. Odds are MSU QB Chiles will continue to make mistakes and turn the ball over.
Why take the points with Michigan State: The Spartans have shown what they are capable of if they don’t turn the ball over in their 32-20 home win over Iowa earlier in the season. In that game, Aidan Chiles had only one interception and was 22-30 for 256 yards. Chiles is a very young quarterback and with two full weeks to prepare and get better the hope is if he improves his decision making, Michigan State has a great chance to win this game.
Big Jeff’s Call: Until he proves it on the field, there is no reason to trust Spartans QB Aidan Chiles won’t continue to have turnovers. Illinois is much better in the red zone and are at home where they are 5-1 on the year. I like Illinois to cover here and call this my Lock City pick of the week. Illinois 27 Michigan State 20.
#4 Penn State -28.5 at PURDUE
Penn State bounced back in a big way after the disappointing loss to Ohio State and thumped Washington 35-6. They are in a great place because if they win their last three games, which are all against unranked teams, they will be assured of a first-round home playoff game.
Purdue is having a year to forget and are clearly the worst team in the Big Ten at 1-8 overall and 0-6 in the Big Ten. Beyond Penn State, they have games at Michigan State and at Indiana and are likely looking at a 1-11 season.
Why Penn State Can Cover: In big spread games like this, start with how many points the underdog is likely to score. Purdue has the 3rd worst Big Ten offense at 320 yards/game and are last in the Big Ten in scoring at 18.0 points/game. Purdue can run the ball decently but are 2nd to last in the Big Ten in 3rd down conversions at 33.3%. Penn State has the 3rd best Big Ten defense and give up just 269 yards/game.
Penn State’s defensive front is similar to Ohio State, who just shut out the Boilermakers so let’s assume 10 is the most points Purdue is likely to get. The Nittany Lions would need 39 points to cover, and they have the 4th rated Big Ten offense at 445 yards/game and average 31.2 points/game also 4th in the Big Ten. However, other than 56 points vs. Kent State, the most points Penn State has scored is 35 vs. Washington.
To cover the 28.5 points Penn State will likely need to win the turnover battle by 1 or 2 where for the season Purdue is +4 and PSU is +2. If they can get a couple scores early and force Purdue to pass, they have a pretty good shot to cover.
Why take the points with Purdue: Purdue can run the ball pretty well at 4.7 yards/carry on average led by tailback Devon Mockobee who averages 5.9/carry. The Boilers need to commit to the running game and keep the score close early to limit needing to rely on their passing games and generate the turnovers PSU will need to cover.
Plus, Penn State will probably need to score 39 points or more which they have done only one time this year. Ohio State has a more explosive offense than Penn State and “only” scored 45 vs. Purdue, but that included a defensive TD. And that was at Ohio State, while this game is at home.
Big Jeff’s Call: Purdue is not going to score much but they missed some opportunities last week at Ohio State and I think they could score 10 in this one. If they do, I don’t see Penn State scoring 40 plus to cover so I like Purdue here. Penn State 37 Purdue 10.
USC -9 vs. Nebraska
It would be a semi-disaster if either USC or Nebraska does not make a bowl game. USC is 4-5 and needs two more wins in 3 games vs. Nebraska, at UCLA and vs #8 Notre Dame. With Notre Dame looming in the final week, this game is almost a must win.
Nebraska is 5-4 after losing three in a row and needs one more win from 3 games at USC, home vs Wisconsin and at Iowa. Their offense has struggled badly in the losing streak and appears to have no rhythm. This led coach Matt Rhule during the off week to make a major surprise move and bring in his friend and former West Virginia and Houston coach Dana Holgorsen as the new Offensive Coordinator.
Holgorsen is a Mike Leach Air Raid offense disciple and is expected to gradually implement Air Raid principles into the Nebraska offense. Former OC Marcus Satterfield was demoted but is still on the Huskers staff. Strange.
Why USC Can Cover: Incredibly USC has lost all 5 of their games after holding leads in the 4th quarter and by a total of 19 points. They could easily be at least 6-3. This has driven Lincoln Riley to make a decision to bench starting QB Miller Moss for Jayden Maiava who started for UNLV last year and completed 64% of his passes for 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. It feels like Riley is just trying to make a change to spark his team.
USC has the 5th best Big Ten offense in total yards and in scoring (30.6/game). USC is second in passing and 9th in rushing. Nebraska’s strength is in their 6th rated Big Ten defense, but they are only 10th in pass defense but have a strong defensive front so USC’s offensive line needs to play well. Other than the close 3-point home loss to Penn State, USC has won their other Big Ten home games by an average of 20 points.
Why take the points with Nebraska: Other than the blowout loss at Indiana, in their three other losses Nebraska’s biggest defeat was by 7 points to both Illinois (in OT) and UCLA. And they showed in their close 4-point loss to Ohio State how well they can play at their best.
The biggest question is if injured freshman QB Dylan Raiola is able to play or if they will need to play backup Heinrich Haarberg who is more of a mobile quarterback. This combined with the coordinator coaching change makes it difficult to project how the 13th Big Ten ranked Husker offense will perform. The expectation is Holgorsen will simplify things so no matter who is the QB. But the USC defense is only rated 15th in the Big Ten so there is no reason to think Nebraska can’t have success.
Big Jeff’s Call: Lots of variables to consider here. USC new QB, health status of Dylan Raiola, impact of new Nebraska OC Dana Holgorsen. The one constant though is the Nebraska defense which has kept all Husker losses except vs. Indiana within 7 points. I like them to keep this game close, especially with a new USC quarterback and will cover the +9 but lose in a close game. USC 24 Nebraska 21.
MARYLAND -5.5 vs. Rutgers
Two old Big Ten east rivals, who have both had disappointing seasons thus far. Maryland is 4-5 overall and 1-5 in the Big Ten putting them second to last. They need two wins to make a bowl and after Rutgers play vs. Iowa and at Penn State. This means Maryland really needs to win two in a row vs. Rutgers and Iowa. Not easy but doable.
Rutgers came into the year with any easy schedule and was thinking maybe they could win 8 or 9 games but now at 5-4 they are potentially in jeopardy of not making a bowl game. They also have had many decimating injuries. After Maryland, they play home vs Illinois and at Michigan State, so they are in a better spot than Maryland to make a bowl, but with work to do.
Similar to Michigan State at Illinois. Statistically Maryland and Rutgers are very similar with Maryland 6th in Big Ten total offense and Rutgers 8th and Maryland 16th in total defense while Rutgers ranks 17th. Pretty good on offense, bad on defense. Both teams even have the same +3 turnover ratio.
Why Maryland Can Cover: Maryland’s strength is their #1 rated pass offense behind QB Billy Edwards Jr. and it’s a favorable matchup vs Rutgers 12th rated pass defense. WR’s Tai Felton and Kaden Prather have a combined 1,482 yards receiving and will be hard for Rutgers to contain.
Also, Rutgers is not the type of team ideally suited to take advantage of Maryland’s Big Ten worst pass defense. With Maryland you never know where their head will be at, so Terps fans need to hope they get more of the early season more focused Maryland vs. the late season under performing team.
Why take the points with Rutgers: Despite Kyle Monangai being hurt, Rutgers is still a good running team and rate 6th in the Big Ten in rushing offense at 174 yards/game. Last week his replacement freshman running back Antwan Raymond looked good running the ball even though the stats weren’t overly impressive with 73 yards at 3.3/carry.
But the big opportunity is in the pass game as Maryland has the worst pass defense in the Big Ten giving up 265 yards/game. Though Rutgers is not a big passing team and averages 210 yards passing/game, QB Athan Kaliakmanis played very well against Minnesota and has taken care of the ball with 12 TDs and 6 interceptions. He has suffered from a lot of receiver drops but the Terps offer an opportunity to spread their passing wings so to speak.
Big Jeff’s Call: Can we trust either of these teams? Ultimately, I have more faith in the Rutgers staff and Greg Schiano vs. Maryland’s staff and Mike Locksley. Maryland has lost 4 of their last 5, so I question their confidence level. I will take Rutgers to cover and pull the upset, but my confidence level is not high. Rutgers 24 Maryland 23.
#1 Oregon -14 vs. WISCONSIN
Oregon is rolling and has not been challenged since the Ohio State game. Wisconsin is coming off a bye after getting surprisingly blown out by Iowa 42-10. At 5-4 the Badgers need to win another game to be bowl eligible and are at Nebraska and home vs. Minnesota the last two games. This is another home night game for the Badgers, so they should have a fired-up crowd, and the Badgers are due to threaten for a major upset at some point.
Why Oregon Can Cover: The -14 points is lower than most people expected. Besides the 1-point win over Ohio State, Oregon has dominated every Big Ten team winning by at least 21 points. They also have scored over 30 points in nine straight games but only over 40 for the year one time. Oregon likes to get out to a big first half lead, then play more conservative in the second half.
Wisconsin’s defense is just 9th in the Big Ten and the two other times this year when the Badgers played the type of offensive skill talent the Ducks have was Alabama and USC who had 42 and 38 points vs Wisconsin. It will be tough for the Badgers to contain this Ducks offense and QB Dillon Gabriel who will want to have another big game in his Heisman pursuit. Gabriel completes 74% of his passes with 22 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Why take the points with Wisconsin: I am not going to get into a bunch of statistics here, which I probably do far too often (Lol). Luke Fickell is in Year 2 and has yet to have a true marquee win. It needs to happen sometime. Why not this game? Night game in Madison; #1 team in the country in town; National TV game on NBC.
And the Ducks at this point are winning pretty easily the past four games so maybe they get a little complacent. Just a little. Wisconsin has nothing to lose since I think they get their sixth win to play in a bowl game their last two games. All this gives the Badgers a great chance to cover as long as QB Braedyn Locke (8 TDs, 8 interceptions) doesn’t have any bad turnovers.
Big Jeff’s Call: I like the Badgers to cover given the bye week to prepare and the emotion from what should be a great home environment. Plus, it’s hard to steamroll everyone like Oregon has the last 4 games and they are due for a down game. The talent gap though is just too big for me to call for a Badgers upset. Oregon 30 Wisconsin 20.
