Big Jeff’s Week 13 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week and 2026 Class To-Date Recruiting Rankings

Week 12 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 13 picks, let’s first do a comprehensive review of how I did in Week 12.

(Odds by FanDuel on 11.13.25).

General Comments:

• Once again I picked just two games this week choosing a “Big Ten Game of the Week” and then making my “Lock City” pick which is the game I feel most confident in picking against the spread. 
• In Week 12, I went 1-1 losing my Game of the Week pick for the Iowa/USC game but winning my Lock City pick from the Indiana/WI game (see results Table Below).
• For the season I am 28-26 overall and 6-3 in my Lock City picks.
• Let’s do a quick what I got right and wrong in my Week 12 picks and also draw some insights on those games and others.

What I Got Wrong in Week 12: 

• In my Lock City pick of the week, I took USC at home giving 6.5 points to Iowa predicting a 34-20 Trojans victory.  Instead, Iowa got out to a 14-0 lead and almost sprang the upset before losing 26-21 but covering the spread.
  • All season, I have overvalued USC apparently from a spread perspective, as on the year I am 1-5 against the spread picking them as the favorite every time but only winning the game vs Michigan. 
  • Even if I got my USC picks half right, I would be 6 games over .500 instead of 2 games over.
  • I took USC even though Iowa had covered 6 of their past 7 games coming into this one so now Iowa is 7-2-1 for the year vs. the spread.
  • But I liked USC because they really do play much better at home having only lost once in the Big Ten last year in OT to Penn State, plus USC has the type of balanced offense and firepower that has given Iowa lots of problems in the past.
  • I also didn’t know when I made my pick that the forecast was for heavy rains which for sure favored a run-based team like Iowa.
  • The Takeaway for USC in this one though is this could be a culture defining game for them to come down from 14-0 to win against a team like Iowa who can run the ball well and control time of possession, but USC showed a lot to me in finding a way to win the game.
  • This may be looked back as the true turnaround season for USC.
  • For Iowa it was another gut punch loss.  They have 4 losses now by a total of 15 points and are oh so close to having a great year but instead are 6-4.
  • I think a big issue is the lack of a pass game means it can be so hard to pick up key 3^rd downs giving the Hawkeyes a very slim margin between winning and losing.
  • Iowa is still strongly respected as they still rank 15^th in ESPN’s SP+ rankings including ranking 6^th in national defense but painfully this was the 13^th straight loss vs Top 25 teams for the Hawkeyes.
  • This will be looked back on as a season of missed opportunities given the defense Iowa has and great offensive line.

What I Got Right in Week 12:

• Coming off the huge comeback win at Penn State, Indiana was a huge 29.5-point favorite at home over Wisconsin coming off their first Big Ten win of the season 13-10 over Washington. I thought that was too high and picked Wisconsin to cover which they did in a 31-7 loss.
  • My pick was Indiana 35 Wisconsin 7 so I nailed Wisconsin getting 7 points and was just 4 points off the Indiana total.
  • For Indiana, this was a potential let down game so it was not surprising when they got off to a slow start and Wisconsin was down only 10-7 at the half and looked like they were going to give Indiana a real game.
  • But IU scored TDs on 2 of their first 3 drives of the second half to cruise to the win. 
  • The win put Indiana only a win over Big Ten winless Purdue to make the Big Ten title game for the first time ever.
  • On the negative side, I feel this game crystalized a potential weakness of Indiana which is in games against talented and physical defensive lines like Wisconsin had, that at one time Big Ten leading rushing attack (now rated 3^rd) has really struggled averaging only 102 yards/game and only 2.8 yards/carry against Iowa, Oregon, Penn State and Wisconsin.
    • Iowa: 39 for 104 yards; 2.7/carry
    • Oregon: 37 for 111 yards; 3.0/carry
    • Penn State: 31 for 108 yards; 3.5/carry
    • Wisconsin: 37 for 83 or 2.2/carry.
  • They have piled up their overall impressive run figures against weak teams so that is a concern if they come against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game or in the playoffs against team’s with strong defensive fronts which you tend to see with the top teams.
  • But, there isn’t any team in college football that doesn’t have a potential relative weakness, so this is not meant to be sounding alarms.
  • For Wisconsin, this continues to show their defense is starting to look more like a typical very physical Wisconsin defense and they have some young players especially at linebacker that will get fans excited for the future. 
  • The Badgers are just dreadful on offense (last in the Big Ten at 247 ypg, with the next to last tam Minnesota at 302 ypg) and can’t generate any chunk plays so it makes it just so hard to get the ball down field.
  • Priority number 1 for Luke Fickell in the off-season, once again, is to figure out how to get that offense going.

Big Jeff’s Week 12 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week and What Two 16-Team Playoff Models Look Like

Forde-Yard Dash: Lane Kiffin, James Franklin Face Momentous Decisions on Future

My Special Topic This Week is Year-to-Date Big Ten Recruiting Rankings for the 2026 Class

Background:

• The fall college football National Signing day is less than 2 weeks away on Wednesday, December 3^rd.
• This has become the day the majority of football recruits sign – though there still I the traditional first week in February second signing day period.
• Despite the transfer portal and NIL changing the dynamics of talent accumulation for college football teams – let’s not fool ourselves though. 
• Traditional High School recruiting still remains the lifeblood for college football programs. 
• I look at as traditional recruiting provides the core players for any program and then the best use the transfer portal to fill in the holes and weak spots in the roster.
• Any program trying to mostly solely rely on the transfer portal is not going to have long-term success – just look at the Florida State Seminoles for that lesson

The Data:

• Let’s look at this recruiting table for all 18 Big Ten teams which is the 247Sports Composite Index.
• The left 3 columns are historical ratings including where each Big Ten ranked nationally for the last 2025 class and then the national average over the last 5 years.
• I have this table sorted by the National 5-yr average in which Ohio State ranks first in the Big Ten down to last rated Purdue.
• I also use color coding where the more green cells, the more positive the data and the more brown the cells the more negative is the data.
• Then the right side 3 columns are updated data as of Tuesday of this week for the upcoming 2026 class.
• This data shows each teams national rank, total commits and Blue Chip ratio which is the percent of commits who are 4 and 5 stars.
• I use similar cell color coding for this info

Team Data Review:

• Remember all this data will be posted in an article at BigJeffsFootball.com
• Let’s first talk about those doing best for the 2026 class.
• USC actually has the #1 class in the nation and Big Ten.  It’s why any talk of Lincoln Riley possible being on the hot seat was totally false.
• USC has a whopping 35 commits and a Blue Chip ratio of 60% which is 3^rd best in the Big Ten behind only Oregon and Ohio State.
• This is huge for USC since their 5-year national average is only 23.2, which is 5^th best in the Big Ten, and it’s huge for the Big Ten since conferences are strongest when their blueblood programs are acting like bluebloods and that is what USC is finally doing.
• 2^nd best in the Big Ten is Oregon ranked #5 in the nation and a huge 84% Blue Chip ratio which is outstanding – the Ducks talent level will only be increasing.
• Ohio State is 3^rd in the Big Ten and 6^th in the nation which for their fans is very disappointing because the Buckeyes have had the best Big Ten class for 9 of the past 11 years.
• To me, this is not a worry.  Ohio State is still killing it.
• 4^th in the Big Ten is Michigan who rank 10^th nationally and have the 5^th best Blue Chip ratio.
• Sherrone Moore is doing a great job here as the #10 rank is better than Michigan’s 12.2 5-year national average.
• Let’s talk Penn State now because normally they are in the Top 5 in Big Ten recruiting and were until James Franklin got fired.
• PSU has lost commits and is down to only 12 but there are still high quality with a 58% Blue Chip ratio but the low commit number means they are just #14 in the Big Ten and 59^th nationally
• Let’s continue talking about the really positive stories.
• 5^th best in the Big Ten is Jed Fisch and Washington who rank 17^th in the nation crushing their 5-year average of ranking 44^th.   And the Huskies blue chip ratio is a very strong 45% which is 6^th best in the Big Ten.
• The 6^th best in the Big Ten is a pretty big surprise.  Illinois and Bret Bielema who are 24^th in the nation and much better than their 5-year average of 51^st which was only 14^th best in the Big Ten – in fact they have the biggest jump vs the 5-year average.
• Illinois is doing it without a lot of blue chips as that ratio is only 12% but being a developmental program is OK – you can go a long way with really good 3-star recruits.
• It looks like Illinois is here to stay under Bielema.
• 7^th Best is another surprise.  PJ Fleck and Minnesota ranked 26^th in the nation which is way better than their 5-year avg of 43.
• PJ has a huge class of 30 and a 17% blue chip ratio.
• 8^th best is another school far over achieving their 5-year avg of only 52^nd in the nation – that Curt Cignetti and Indiana who are 29^th in the country with a 17% blue chip ratio
• This has the potential to be Indiana’s best over recruiting class.  Like Illinois, it looks like Indiana is here to stay as long as Cignetti is there so get used to it SEC fans.
•  #9 is Iowa ranked 30^th in the nation and this may surprise you but this is right about where Iowa has been recruiting as their 5-year average is 33^rd in the nation.
• And it’s big that Iowa’s blue chip ratio is 41%.
• Iowa’s recruiting is literally better than ever under Kirk Ferentz which is why I have been completely against those who say he should retire.
• The next group is below average in the Big Ten starting with #10 Michigan State with the 34^th best national class which is still good though for Jonathan Smith.
• The Spartans blue chip ratio is a solid 19%.
• Rutgers is 11^th in the Big Ten and #37 in the nation which is good but their Blue Chip ratio is only 10% on the low end.
• Still 37^th in nation is better than Rutgers 5-year avg of 40.
• #12 is Northwestern and at #50 in the nation is much better than the Cats 5-year average of only 58 which is 2^nd worst in the Big Ten.
• So David Braun is really doing a good job recruiting but its all 3 stars except one single 4 star which is OK.
• #13 is Purdue at 54^th in the nation which is slightly better than Purdues Big Ten worst 5-year average of being 62^nd in the nation.
• Purdue and Barry Odom are the only Big Ten team with Zero 4 stars.
• #14 Big Ten recruiting is Penn State who we already talked about
• UCLA comes in at #15 and because they fired coach DeShaun Foster it’s guaranteed their weak ranking of 61^st in the nation is hurt by the coaching change. 
• But they still have a surprising 14 players committed and their Blue Chip ratio is still a solid 21% — That’s a pleasant surprise.
• #16 is Wisconsin and Luke Fickell and that is terrible for Wisconsin whose 5-year average is 34^th in the nation — and they were 23^rd and 27^th the past two years which is a reason why some fans and media had argued for Fickle to be retained and blamed unlucky injuries for their poor record.
• At that ranking and just 14 commitments we know the speculation about Fickell possibly being fired has had a big negative impact so it will be interesting to see if their recruiting can recover some.
• #17 is Maryland at 74^th in the nation way below their 5-year average of about 30^th.  This is why recruiting has not bee the problem for Mike Lockley but instead it’s development and retention of those recruits.
• Similar to Wisconsin this really low rank for the Terps has to reflect the uncertainty of Locksley’s job – its TBD if his recent vote of confidence from his AD will help.
• Last place in the Big Ten?  I am very surprised – It’s Nebraska who is 91^st in the nation while having the 6^th best Big Ten team 5-year average of 25^th in the nation.
• The Huskers have only 10 commits with a 20% blue chip ratio and this is all with no real speculation on Matt Rhules job beyond him maybe leaving for Penn State but that didn’t cause any real recruit defections I know of.

Summary:

• A few final summary comments on this.
• The Big Ten 2026 class with a team national average of 37.2 is actually a little worse than their 5-year team national average of 34.6 – so that is disappointing.
• But, there will still be a good number of commits these final two weeks plus some who won’t commit until the February signing day.
• This data does show though it can be terrible for teams to have a coach on the hot seat – we are seeing that big time in the figures for both Wisconsin and Maryland.
• Jedd Fisch can definitely recruit for Washington – the results on the field though need to be better.
• USC is re-establishing themselves as blueblood, which is great for the conference.
• And it looks like the two teams who have been the biggest surprises in the last two years, Indiana and Illinois, are only going to get better based on significantly better recruiting and they have two coaches in Cignetti and Bielema in place who are unlikely to be going anywhere based on where they are late in their coaching careers.
• Finally, after signing day I will be doing an update to this information on a future Podcast.

Week 13 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 11.19.25.

This week we have 8 games in the Big Ten (see Table below).  Once again this week I will be analyzing and predicting just 2 games.

My Big Ten game of the week which is USC at Oregon in the Green row as the Trojans are a 6.5-point underdog.  And then my “Lock City” pick in the light purple row with Northwestern as a 3.5-point favorite at home over Minnesota. 

Comments on Big Ten Games Outside My 2 Predictions:

• Last week the Big Ten had just 2 of 8 games as single digit spreads which frankly is fairly embarrassing but this week it’s much better with 4 of 8 in single digits and only one game over 16.5 points which is Ohio State favored by 30.5 over Rutgers
• I would be careful in betting that Ohio State game because there is a pretty good chance I think the Buckeyes will decide to rest both star receiver Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith who are banged up.
• Michigan is an intriguing game as a 13.5-point favorite at Maryland which seems like a lot given their struggles last week to barely best Northwestern but that was more a factor or their -5 turnover ratio.  But I would favor Maryland at that spread.
• Another surprising spread is Penn State favored by 9.5 at home over Nebraska. Vegas must feel PSU have found themselves now and we will see the better version of them in the final two games. 
• Plus, Nebraska has struggled against strong defensive fronts but with Dylan Raiola out TJ Lateef actually had a nice game in his first start the prior week vs UCLA and there’s the thought he gets the ball out quicker than Raiola does which mitigates the line issues some.  I would stay away from this game.
• Washington is favored by 10.5 at UCLA and that is another game to stay away from with the Huskies typically playing below their capability on the road but the status of Nico Iamaleava to me make’s betting this game a non-starter.
• Finally, we have Bret Bielema and Illinois returning to his old home at Wisconsin as a 9.5-point favorite.  Wisconsin is playing with more energy and fire than they have all season. 
• Illinois has been playing very consistently and has their eyes on going 9-3 in the regular season with 2 more wins.
• If I had to bet on this one, I would take Wisconsin to cover but Illinois to win by a touchdown.

Big Ten Game of the Week: #7 OREGON -9.5 vs. #15 Usc (59.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

A matchup between two former Pac 12 rivals who were the premier programs in the league.  USC leads the series 39-23 (with 2 ties) and the last game was in 2023 where Bo Nix and the Ducks beat Caleb Williams and USC 36-27. Oregon has won 7 of the last 10 and 3 in a row.

There are a lot of injuries on both teams creating some unknowns.  For Oregon it includes injuries to receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. who both missed the Minnesota game.  The Trojans have multiple running backs out and 3 starters including star defensive back Kamari Ramsey had to come out of the last game vs Iowa.

USC comes in 9-2 overall and 6-1 in the Big Ten after their big comeback win 26-21 from a 14-point deficit at home to Iowa.  Their 2 losses are at Illinois and at Notre Dame.  Also, Lincoln Riley at USC is 0-4 vs Top 10 teams and on the road vs ranked teams is 1-7 so those stats are not favorable.

Oregon is 9-1 overall and 6-1 in the Big Ten with their one loss to #2 Indiana 30-20 but coming off a 42-13 total domination of Minnesota where they outgained the Gophers 510 to 200 yards.

This game would have been huge no matter what, but now that we have the 12-Team playoffs it magnifies this game even more. There are really two scenarios now for the Big Ten to get 4 teams into the playoffs.  First is if Michigan wins out and beats #1 Ohio State in the last game, I think at 10-2 it would be very hard to keep Michigan out of the playoffs.

The second scenario is if USC upsets Oregon in a close game, which means USC moves to 9-2 and then if they beat UCLA in their last game finish 10-2.  Oregon would fall to 9-2 if they lose to the Trojans but if they beat Washington in their last game, they would be 10-2 as well. 

There is no guarantee both teams at 10-2 would get in since they would be compared to what are sure to be a group of other 10-2 teams, but it gives the Big 10 a chance for this and I think USC for sure at least would be in.  The issue for Oregon is if they lose to USC they might not have a win over a Playoff Committee Top 25 team.

ESPN SP+ has USC ranked 13^th in the nation including the #6 ranked offense, while Oregon is #4 per SP+ and has the 3^rd rated defense.   The two teams are separated by  8.1 SP+ rating points (26.6 vs 18.5).  PFF has Oregon with the 52^nd toughest schedule in the nation, which is 3^rd easiest in the Big Ten and USC with the 35^th toughest schedule about in the middle of the Big Ten.

For the year USC is 5-5 against the spread but have covered 3 games in a row, while Oregon is 6-4 vs the spread.

Why Oregon Can Cover:

1-Oregon’s offensive line is better than USC’s defensive line and the Ducks running game has just hit a different gear and will be hard to contain.

Oregon’s offensive line is big, good and appears to be getting better.  PFF has 4 of the 5 Ducks line starters solidly in the “Green” for well above average ratings and they are led by left senior Guard Emmanuel Pregnon who ranks 3^rd among all college football guards in blocking.

Meanwhile for USC 3 of their 4 defensive line starters rank as average per PFF with only senior right end Anthony Lucas ranking well above average.  I am not saying this is a bad defensive line but it’s not the type you typically see for a team that wants to make the 12-team playoff field.

Oregon ranks first in the Big Ten in rushing offense at 235 yards/game at 6.3 yards/carry (good for 1^st in the Big Ten and 8^th in the nation) and have 3 strong running backs with over 400 yards rushing led by Noah Whittingham who has 623 yards at 8.2 ypc.  The 2^nd leading back Jordon Davison averages 7.0 ypc and has 12 TDs. 

USC meanwhile ranks just 10^th in Big Ten rush defense yielding 146 yards/game good for just 62^nd in the nation giving up 4.42 ypc.

2-On the other side of the ball, Oregon’s defensive line is highly rated where USC’s offensive line has had struggles so again Oregon should win this trench matchup and likely make it hard for USC to run the ball forcing them to be over reliant on the pass.

For USC’s offensive line 4 of 5 starters rank as average or below per PFF with only left Tackle Elijah Paige ranking really well at 134^th among 651 tackles.  Meanwhile, all 4 defensive line starters for Oregon rank well above average per PFF (grade of 70 or above) led by right defensive end Teitum Tuioti who ranks 53^rd among all 899 defensive ends.

This also supports the macro stats as well where Oregon ranks 2^nd in Big Ten total defense yielding 235 yards/game and are 6^th in Big Ten rush defense yielding just 108 yards/game.  Plus, Oregon ranks 16^th in the nation giving up 3.16 yards/rush.

USC runs the ball very well also at 191 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry but this might be their stiffest test to date and USC’s ability to run the ball to stay balanced is one of the big keys to this game.

3-USC is #1 in the Big Ten in passing offense but Oregon is excellent against the pass and ranks #1 in the nation in both pass yards allowed and pass efficiency defense and has the ability to contain USC’s dynamic receivers.

USC averages 298 passing yards per game (10^th in the nation) led by QB Jayden Maiava who is 8^th in the nation in Quarterback rating per ESPN (162.6 rating) and has dynamic weapons to throw to including superstar receiver Makai Lemon who is 3^rd in the nation with 1,090 receiving yards at 15.4 yards/catch with 8 TDs. 

But Oregon is #1 in the nation in pass defense allowing just 127 yards/game and also #1 in pass efficiency defense allowing just 6 touchdown passes in 10 games and also have 9 interceptions.  Against the best passing offense they faced in Indiana they held Fernando Mendoza to 20-31 for 215 yards but also has a pick six against the Hoosiers.  It won’t be easy for USC to throw on this defense.

Why Take the Point with USC:

1-Surprisingly USC is much better than Oregon in the key metric of Red Zone Defense and Red Zone Offense which can be the difference maker between two fairly closely matched teams.

These stats surprised me on the Oregon side.  First in Red Zone defense.

Red Zone Defense:  

• USC is 7^th in the nation (2^nd in Big Ten next to Ohio State) in giving up scores at 71.0% while allowing 18 TDs in 31 red zone trips
• Oregon is only 130^th in the nation (of 134 teams) in giving up scores at 94.4% which includes allowing 13 TDs in 18 red zone trips
• On the positive though for Oregon they have only allowed 18 red zone trips vs the 31 for USC.

Red Zone Offense:

• USC is 9^th in the nation (2^nd in the Big Ten to UCLA) scoring 94.0% of the time and scoring 35 TDs in 50 red zone trips.
• Oregon is tied for 47^th in the nation, scoring 87.8% of the time and scoring 29 TDs in 41 red zone trips.

2-Despite all the things I mentioned favoring Oregon, the reality is this USC team has the type of firepower and talent on offense to keep up with Oregon in scoring to cover the 9.5 or even win the game if turnovers or other things go their way.

Note: both teams are about equal in turnovers with Oregon at +5 for the year and USC at +4.

As mentioned already, this USC offense is #1 in the Big Ten in total offense and is #3 in the Big Ten in scoring offense at 38.2 points/game, which is just a shade behind #2 Oregon at 39.0 points/game. 

Add to it Lincoln Riley’s play calling is typically excellent as long as he doesn’t abandon the run game too early and this is a great matchup against Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi.  USC is just so hard to stop on offense because they do practically everything well.

Big Jeff’s Call: 9.5 points is an awful lot in a game like this and when I saw the spread, I assumed I would go with USC because it’s higher than the 7 points I was expecting.

But after looking at the numbers and seeing how great the Oregon pass defense has been and how impressive they are playing in the trenches I am going with Oregon to win and cover.  I am also factoring in USC’s tendency to play sub-optimal on the road in what I suspect to be a raucous environment at Autzen Stadium.  I still feel USC is a really good, much improved football team over last year.

Also I have been burned by USC so many times taking them, that going the other way might make sense.

 Oregon 38 USC 24.  Confidence: Medium

Big Jeff’s “Lock City” Pick of the Week: NORTHWESTERN -3.5 Minnesota (40.5 FanDuel O/U)

Background:

This is a matchup of offensively challenged teams who both have pretty good defenses.    Not surprisingly it has the lowest over/under of 40.5 points among Big Ten games this week.  In other words, it’s a great Big Ten West type of matchup.

Northwestern is 5-5 overall and 3-4 in the Big Ten bit coming off a big missed opportunity to upset Michigan last week where the Wolverines had 5 turnovers but pulled it out at the end with a field goal winning 24-22.  A win would have secured the 6 wins needed for bowl eligibility making this game vs Minnesota a huge game for the Wildcats since their last game will be a hard to win at #21 Illinois.

Minnesota comes in 6-4 overall and 4-3 in the Big Ten and has not had a good stretch their last 3 games that included getting drilled at Iowa 41-3, barely beating a Michigan State team who has yet to win a Big Ten game 23-20 at home and then last week being mostly non-competitive at Oregon losing 42-13.

Interestingly ESPN’s SP+ has Northwestern and Minnesota ranked right next to each other with the Gophers at #65 just one spot ahead of the #66 Wildcats.  SP+ total rating points are only 0.8 points better for Minnesota implying they would be a slight favorite on a neutral field.

Pro Football Focus rates Minnesota’s strength of schedule to date is 30^th in the nation (8^th toughest in the Big Ten) and Northwestern 20^th in the nation (5^th toughest in Big Ten).

Year-to-date Northwestern is 6-3-1 against the spread while Minnesota is only 2-8 against the spread and has not covered in their last 3 games. 

Why Northwestern Can Cover:

1-Northwestern has lost 3 straight, but has been very competitive in those games while Minnesota has played terrible on the road this year where they are 0-4, plus they have played very poor their last 3 games, so they are not trending in a good direction.

Minnesota is 6-0 at home this year and 0-4 on the road losing by 13 to Cal, 39 to Ohio State, 38 to Iowa and 29 to Oregon for an average loss of 30 points/game.  Three of those 4 are obviously really good teams but when you lose by that much it means you were non-competitive.

Plus, I talked about earlier how the poor results the last 3 games including barely beating a bad Michigan State team at home by 3.  Teams want to play their best ball in November, and it looks like the Gophers are doing the opposite.

Meanwhile, Northwestern almost beat Michigan and lost by 2, the prior week played tough at USC and almost led at the half if not for a fumble out of the end zone on what would have been a pick 6 interception to go up 21-14, and then 3 weeks ago were tied 21-21 in the 4^th quarter at Nebraska before losing by 7.  David Braun has his team playing well in November.

2-Minnesota has the 2^nd worst offense in the Big Ten (and 126^th in the nation) including the worst rushing offense and while the Gophers have a pretty good passing game that actually aligns to the strength of the Northwestern defense who is 8^th in Big Ten pass defense.

Minnesota has perplexed me because I have always thought of them as a strong running team, but their Big Ten worst run offense averages just 105 yards/game (124th in the nation) and 3.56 yards/carry.  This has continued a bad trend from the last two years.  Here is their 4-year trend for rushing offense: 16^th (2022), 65^th (2023), 109^th (2024) and now 124^th this year.

Back in 2022, Minnesota averaged 28.2 points/game but is averaging 22.7 now good for 102^nd in the nation.  Something has been and is amiss with the Minnesota offense and it’s hard to win games both moving the ball and scoring so poorly.

The matchup further favors Northwestern in that Minnesota is a solid 12^th in Big Ten passing at 197 yards/game, but Northwestern’s defense is quite strong in pass defense (8^th in Big Ten) and giving up just 191 yards/game.  Northwestern plays 5 defensive backs and all but one rank well above average by PFF.

Plus, Northwestern’s overall defense in general is good 11^th in the Big Ten giving up 341 yards/game but more important are 7^th in Big Ten scoring defense yielding just 19.6 points/game.

Why Take the Points with MInnesota:  

1-Giving hope to Minnesota is their defensive matchup with the Northwestern offense is favorable because the Wildcats are much better at running the ball but that is where the Gophers defensive strength is as well. 

Northwestern’s offense is based on their 6^th best in the Big Ten rushing offense averaging 169 yards/game led by emerging sophomore running back Caleb Komolafe who is 6^th in the Big Ten in rushing at 757 yards with 4.9 ypc and 9 touchdowns.  His vision and tough running has been impressive and though Michigan bottled him up before that he ran for 118 against USC and 125 verse Nebraska.

But on the good side for Minnesota, rushing defense is their strength as they are 8^th in the Big Ten yielding only 115 yards/game.  If the Wildcats can’t get their run game going they will struggle to score vs the Gophers.

2-Despite Northwestern’s superiority in total offense statistics over Minnesota, the Gophers actually average a little more points/game (22.7 vs 21.9 ppg) because Northwestern settles for way too many field goals vs touchdowns in the red zone holding down their scoring.

Northwestern actually ranks 23^rd in red zone offense at a 91.4% conversion rate but digging deeper of their 35 red zone trips only 16 have ended with TDs (for a 46% TD conversion rate), which is the exact same number of red zone converted field goals of 16 tied for 2^nd most in the nation.  This is actually a FG stat you don’t want to rank high on.

Contrast with Minnesota who ranks only 59^th in red zone offense converting at 86.1 % but in the Gophers 36 red zone trips they have had 20 TDs (for a TD conversion rate of 56%) and just 11 field goals.  In a tight matchup like this with just a 3.5 spread, settling for field goals vs TDs for Northwestern can make the difference in the Gophers covering or winning the game.

3-Northwestern QB Preston Stone is the 2^nd lowest rated starting QB in the Big Ten and is prone to turnovers with just 11 TDs and 9 interceptions on the year.

ESPN’s quarterback rating has Stone 2^nd to last in the Big Ten ahead of only Maryland’s Malik Washington.  He is completing just 58% of his passes and has not thrown for over 200 yards in all seven Big Ten games.  In his last 3 games he has thrown for 1 TD with 2 interceptions.

Big Jeff’s Call: I really like this matchup for Northwestern.  They are playing better football in November than Minnesota is for sure and the Gophers have just been so terrible in their road games.   At six wins Minnesota has already secured a bowl berth where Northwestern needs a 6^th win badly with a final road game at #21 Illinois looming. 

I like David Braun and his group to get it done so take the Cats to win and cover.

Northwestern 24 Minnesota 17.  Confidence: High as Big Jeff’s Lock City Pick of the Week.