Each week Big Jeff will give my picks for all Big Ten conference games and the one I am most confident in across all Big Ten games vs. the spread. I call it my “Lock City” pick of the week. Football is all about two things – Matchups and Motivation (which includes the team’s mental state) – and that is the key criteria I use in deciding my picks. This is the last week of Big Ten action with many big games. Before getting to the picks, let’s review last week.
Big Jeff’s 2024 Big Ten Football Pick Results (after Week 13)
- Last Week: 4-4 vs Spread; Lost “Lock City” pick
- Year-to-Date: 40-31-1 vs Spread; 4-6 in “Lock City” picks of week
Week 13 Pick Summary
- MICHIGAN STATE -13.5 vs. Purdue – Friday Night – The Pick: Michigan State Lost
- #2 OHIO STATE -13.5 at #5 Indiana – The Pick: Indiana Lost
- #25 Illinois -1 RUTGERS – The Pick: Rutgers LOCK CITY Pick of the Week Lost
- Iowa -6.5 MARYLAND – The Pick: Iowa Won
- #4 Penn State -12.5 MINNESOTA – The Pick: Minnesota Won
- MICHIGAN -10.5 Northwestern – The Pick: Michigan Won
- NEBRASKA -2.5 Wisconsin – The Pick: Nebraska Won
- USC -4.5 UCLA (home) – The Pick: UCLA Lost
Big Jeff’s Week 13 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Big Jeff’s Football
Big 10 Football Mid-Season Report Card – Big Jeff’s Football
Here are the games for Week 14: (Odds by ESPNBET on 11/27/24).
Week 14 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week
Big Ten Conference Games (8)
Note: I am not picking the non-conference games of Notre Dame -7.5 at USC and UCLA -8 vs. Fresno State. Two teams have bowl eligibility on the line needing a 6th win for both Wisconsin and Michigan State.
- WISCONSIN -2 Minnesota – Friday – The Pick: Minnesota
- IOWA -5.5 Nebraska – Friday – The Pick: Iowa
- #2 OHIO STATE -21 at Michigan – The Pick: Michigan
- #23 Illinois -7.5 NORTHWESTERN – The Pick: Illinois
- #4 PENN STATE -24.5 Maryland – The Pick: Penn State
- MICHIGAN STATE -1.5 Rutgers – The Pick: Michigan State LOCK CITY pick of the Week
- #10 INDIANA -29 Purdue – The Pick: Purdue
- #1 OREGON -19 Washington – The Pick: Washington
WISCONSIN -2 Minnesota – Friday
At 5-6 on the year, Luke Fickell and Wisconsin needs this game very bad just to make a bowl game and are on a 4-game losing streak. Wisconsin has both a streak of winning seasons and bowl berths of 22 straight years they don’t want to see broken. Minnesota is 6-5 and coming off a very emotional close loss to Penn State.
Why Wisconsin Can Cover: Which Wisconsin team will show up? The team who played great on defense and barely lost to #1 Oregon 16-13 or the one who last week vs. a Nebraska team with a weak offense that gave up 44 points. Wisconsin has a better offense than Minnesota by about 39 yards/game but Minnesota averages 26.5 points/game, while Wisconsin averages just 24.0 points. This ties back to turnover margin as referenced below that greatly favors Minnesota.
The Badgers have shown they can move the ball better than Minnesota, so if they win the turnover battle, they actually should win this game. Last week they had 2 turnovers vs Nebraska. They likely can only afford one turnover at the most to win this game and hope their stingy defense shows up which is more likely given it’s a home game. Also, Wisconsin has the second worst run defense in the Big Ten but Minnesota has the 3rd worst run offense so that’s good news for the Badgers who are much better on pass defense ranking 5th in the Big Ten vs. the Gopher passing attack led by QB Max Brosmer.
Finally, the Badgers need Braedyn Locke to play well like he did against Nebraska where he went 20-32 for 292 yards with 3 TDs and one interception.
Why take the points with Minnesota: After getting dominated by Wisconsin for years, Minnesota has won 2 of the last 3 matchups so they know they can win this game even though they are the underdog. The Gophers are much better at taking care of the ball at a +10 turnover margin and are #14 in the nation in turnovers forced with 20. The Badgers meanwhile are -6 in turnover margin and with 18 turnovers rank a poor 94th in the nation.
Minnesota’s defense is much more consistent and better than Wisconsin’s. And as the saying goes, defense travels. The Gophers are 5th in Big Ten defense at 302 yards/game given up vs. the Badgers 340 yards/game. The Gophers also give up 18.5 points/game good for 6th in the Big Ten while the Badgers rank 12th giving up 23.0 points/game. In fact, in the last six Big Ten games the Gophers have given up over 20 points only twice. in giveaways.
Minnesota is by far the more consistent team which bodes well in getting the win.
Big Jeffs Call: The Badgers are wildly inconsistent and not very good overall but do play better at home. Minnesota clearly has the better defense, take care of the ball much better with a +10 turnover margin and even have the better quarterback in Max Brosmer over Braedyn Locke. I will bet on the consistency of the Gophers to cover and win this game. Minnesota 24 Wisconsin 17.
IOWA -5.5 Nebraska – Friday
Nebraska is feeling sky high after getting their 6th win making them 6-5 to become bowl eligible over rival Wisconsin last week. It breaks a bowl less streak that dates back to 2017 and the Huskers struggling offense exploded to score 44 points. Iowa is 7-4 and 5-3 tied for 4th place in the Big Ten and coming off an impressive 29-13 road win over Maryland. Iowa has won 2 of the last 3 vs. Nebraska.
Why Iowa Can Cover: Iowa is much better at taking care of the ball with a +11 turnover margin which leads the Big Ten, while Nebraska is +1. Both defenses are the strength of the team, but Iowa’s is better ranking 6th in the Big Ten in total defense (vs. 10th for Nebraska) and 5th in points given up at 17.7/game vs. Nebraska’s 20.5.
The key to this game is can Nebraska’s 6th rated Big Ten rush defense giving up only 111 yards/game stop the Big Ten’s leading rusher (and 2nd in the nation) Kaleb Johnson (1,492 yards at 6.7 yards/carry and 21 TDs) and Iowa’s Big Ten best rushing offense that averages 214 yards/game? With Iowa at home, odds are the Hawkeyes will continue to have success running the ball.
Iowa is scoring much better than prior years averaging 29.4 points/game which is 5th in the Big Ten, while in comparison last year they were dead last in the Big Ten at 15.4 points/game. A big factor is they rank 33rd in the nation in Red Zone offense efficiency scoring 89.2% of the time with 24 touchdowns in 37 red zone trips. Nebraska is just 118th in the nation in red zone defense at a 76.1% scoring rate.
Why take the points with Nebraska: Again, this game comes down to can Nebraska contain Iowa’s Big Ten leading rushing attack? Iowa is dead last in the Big Ten in passing at 133 yards/game so it’s no secret what Iowa is going to try to do vs. Nebraska’s 6th rated run defense.
Nebraska’s offense under new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen looked like a different team last week vs. Wisconsin putting up a season high 44 points and 473 yards of total offense. Probably more important, quarterback Dylan Raiola looked more like the QB from early in the season going 28-38 for 293 yards and a touchdown. It looks like his confidence has returned which bodes well for Nebraska to have continued success vs. a good but not great Iowa defense.
With Nebraska already bowl eligible, they should be free to play aggressive and stress-free vs Iowa. To win they will need to be more efficient in the red zone.
Big Jeff’s Call: Despite Nebraska feeling great from gaining bowl eligibility and looking better on offense, I have to go with Iowa here based on how well they play at home, their ability to generate turnovers and better scoring efficiency in the red zone. Dylan Raiola is still a freshman QB and this will be a tough road environment. I expect the Hawkeyes to get a couple turnovers from him. Iowa 27 Nebraska 17.
#2 OHIO STATE -21 at Michigan
The Game. As much as I love the new playoff system, it really does reduce the stakes for this one. In the old 4-team format if Michigan pulls the upset, they knock the Buckeyes out of the playoffs and ruin their season. They still would inflict a ton of pain on OSU fans and Ryan Day if they win but nothing like it could be.
By beating Northwestern last week Michigan is 6-5 and clinched a bowl berth but this would be a huge win for Sherrone Moore and his staff. For Ohio State, at 10-1 a loss would knock them out of the chance to avenge their lone loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game and impact their playoff seeding.
Why Ohio State Can Cover: For a rivalry game like this, 21 points is simply a HUGE spread. I had guessed more like 17. But the stats do point to how OSU could cover this. They have the third rated Big Ten offense in total offense and are well balanced being 4th best in passing and 3rd in rushing. They also are first in points scored at 37.8/game.
Michigan meanwhile is 2nd to last in the Big Ten in total offense and average 23.1 points/game. Michigan is second to last in Big Ten passing at 140 yards/game and only 8th in rushing at 160 yards/game. On defense, Ohio State is first in the Big Ten (and the nation) giving up just 242 totals yards/game, including ranking second in the Big Ten in rush defense giving up 90 yards/game. Michigan should struggle to run the ball like they would like, and an upset would require QB Davis Warren to have the game of his life. The problem is he really doesn’t have the weapons to do it.
Despite many stars, Michigan is a disappointing 8th in total defense and they give up 21.5 points/game. But they are good against the run and have just the 12th best passing defense giving up 222 yards/game. With the Buckeyes beat up line, I expect they will struggle to run the ball so will need to rely on QB Will Howard throwing to his talented receiver core to be able to move the ball consistently.
Why take the points with Michigan: First, the hope is OSU and Ryan Day play tight given how badly they want to win this game. They need to keep it tight early to keep the crowd out of it and put doubt in the Ohio State’s players minds.
The other path for Michigan is have their super talented defensive line totally dominate and disrupt the Ohio State line which has suffered injuries to two key starters and have had to shuffle around players. Ohio State’s center will be starting only his second game of the year so maybe they can get him to struggle with snapping the ball and getting the OSU offense moving. This is a very viable threat in this game.
If the Michigan defense wins up front and contains OSU, then I think it will come down to Davis Warren playing his best game. He is coming off an impressive performance against Northwestern last week where he went 26-35 for 195 yards and 1 TD and an interception. This was probably his best performance of the year. On the year though, Warren has 6 TDs and 7 interceptions so it will be imperative he has one INT at the max. For the year Michigan is -4 in turnover margin so they really must win the turnover battle given how scoring challenged they are.
Big Jeff’s Call: Michigan is going to milk the clock and probably need to get hyper aggressive in this one. Ryan Day has been aggressive all year so we will see if he does that here. I expect a close first half but then OSU’s talent ruling the day for a double-digit win. Bottom line is Michigan can’t score near enough and can’t contain OSU’s receiver core but their defense allows them to cover. Ohio State 34-17.
#23 Illinois -7.5 NORTHWESTERN
Northwestern is 4-7 so this is all about pride for them and is their bowl game in essence. For Illinois meanwhile at 8-3 overall and 5-3 in the Big Ten good for tied for 5th place, it’s been a season where coach Bret Bielema has gotten the most out this team and their talent. They are below average in most Big Ten stats and yet behind being 4-1 in one score games including last week’s semi-miracle win over Rutgers 38-31 find themselves in great position for a really good bowl game. Nine wins would secure that.
Why Illinois Can Cover: Against teams with relatively similar talent, Illinois has thrived this year. Excluding the losses to #1 Oregon and #4 Penn State, the Illini are 8-1 and this group simply knows how to win football games. Northwestern is last in the Big Ten in total offense and last in scoring at 16.9 points/game. Meanwhile, Illinois is 10th in total offense and 7th in scoring offense at 28.1 points/game. It helps to have a +5-turnover ratio. How is Northwestern going to score enough to cover 7.5 points?
Illinois is just 15th in Big Ten total defense but a much better 11th in scoring defense at 21.5 points/game. Illinois is just very efficient in what they do despite unimpressive overall statistics. A great example is QB Luke Altmyer who completed just 61% of his passes but has 20 TDs to only 3 interceptions. And Illinois is 5th in red zone efficiency scoring 88.6% of the time whereas Northwestern is last in the Big Ten at 71%.
Why take the points with Northwestern: PRIDE. Statistically there is little to like about the Wildcats who again rank last in Big Ten total offense and a better but still poor 13th in total defense. They don’t make many mistakes though and are +0 (even) in turnover margin and have just 41 yards/game in penalties for 13th in the Big Ten.
Productivity at quarterback is probably the biggest issue for the Wildcats as Jack Lausch completes just 54% of his passes and has 5 TDs and 6 interceptions on the year. He is the worst rated quarterback in the Big Ten. Other than an OT win over the worst team in the Big Ten Purdue, they have lost by an average of 28.5 points in their last 4 losses. I am supposed to be writing about positive things for NW to win but am struggling here. In watching the Wildcats, I do think their front seven is good, but they are on the field too long and wear down.
Big Jeff’s Call: Northwestern needs to hope Illinois has a let down and maybe has some uncharacteristic turnovers. Maybe they can win just based on pride and playing hard but I am not going to bet on it and will take Illinois to cover. Illinois 28 Northwestern 14.
#4 PENN STATE -24.5 Maryland
Maryland seems like a lost team this year at 4-7 overall and 1-7 and has lost 4 in a row at an average score of 37-18 or 19 points/game. Penn State meanwhile at 10-1 is in great shape to make the college football playoffs for the first time and I suspect won’t be bashful in trying to run up the score to impress the committee and maximize their seed.
Why Penn State Can Cover: Style points. This is a reeling Maryland team having lost 6 of their last 7 games and looking like they may have quit on the season. Penn State is second in Big Ten offense at 446 yards/game up against Maryland’s 16th best Big Ten defense in total yards and second to last (17th) in the Big Ten pass defense giving up 246 yards/game. Once Penn State gets ahead it could be a great chance to work on that downfield passing game that the Nittany Lions are going to need to make a long run in the playoffs.
Penn State is also equipped to stop Maryland’s strong passing attack with one of the best Big Ten defensive lines led by end Abdul Carter who is tied for 4th in the Big Ten with 8 sacks.
Why take the points with Maryland: Maryland’s best hope is that Penn State comes out flat from an emotional and tight road win at Minnesota. And they need to tap into pride and play hard or this will be a total blowout.
On defense, Penn State is 3rd in the Big Ten and 4th in passing defense, which is Maryland’s strength first in the Big Ten with 290 yards/game passing. The issue though is can the Maryland line stand up to Penn State’s stout defensive line? Maryland needs a big day from QB Billy Edwards, Jr. to cover this line since I doubt they will contain Penn State’s offense.
Big Jeff’s Call: I hate spreads this big and would not bet it. But these are programs in opposite spots and given Penn State is at home, I think their crowd and the need to build style points will allow them to blowout Maryland in this one. I also doubt Mike Locksley can get this team fired up to play for pride. Penn State 41 Maryland 14.
MICHIGAN STATE -1.5 Rutgers
Rutgers is 6-5 and coming off totally blowing a game to Illinois at home in the last minute. They have clinched a bowl berth while Michigan State meanwhile is 5-6 and coming off an unimpressive 24-17 home win over Purdue despite getting outgained 338 to 296 and coming off a 3-game losing streak. The Spartans are one of two Big Ten teams that must win to make a bowl game.
It’s hard to compare overall stats of these two teams since Michigan State has played 4 of the top 5 Big Ten teams (OSU, Oregon, Indiana, Illinois), while Rutgers has only played one of them (Illinois). The teams are 2-2 in the last four meetings.
Why Michigan State Can Cover: The Spartans have won 2 of 3 Big Ten games at home. Michigan State is an impressive 9th in total Big Ten defense giving up 329 yards/game but not as well in points given up where they rank 13th giving up 24.7 points/game. Their red zone defense is 12th in the Big Ten (82.9%), so that doesn’t help but the bigger culprit is likely their -7 turnover margin which is 2nd to last in the conference.
The good news on the turnovers is the biggest culprit has been QB Aidan Chiles who has 12 TDs and 11 interceptions on the year, however, within the conference those stats are a more respectable 11 and 6 and in his last two games Chiles has thrown for 4 TDs with 0 interceptions. His completion percentage is low, but he is making better decisions, which combined with a solid defense, gives the Spartans a much better chance to win.
Why take the points with Rutgers: Michigan State is 17th in the Big Ten in red zone offense scoring 75% of the time with just 17 TDs in 36 trips. In fact, overall MSU is 13th in Big Ten total offense and only 15th in scoring at 19.8 points/game. They only scored 24 against the worst defense in the Big Ten last week vs Purdue and the prior 4 games was 16, 10, and 17 points. Rutgers can hopefully hold Michigan State to under 20 points.
On offense, Rutger has been good by their standards getting solid play from QB Ethan Kaliakmanis. They are 8th in Big Ten offense and points scored at 26.7/game.
The key to this game is turnovers but also Rutgers 4th rated Big Ten rushing offense at 173 yards/game led by 1K yard rusher Kyle Monangai, going against the Spartans stingy 8th rated Big Ten rushing defense at 117 yards/game despite their tougher schedule than Rutgers. If Rutgers can have good success running the ball they can win this game.
Big Jeff’s Call: Rutgers is coming off a tough loss and Michigan State is home and really needs this win to make a bowl, so I like their motivation better than Rutgers. Plus, Aidan Chiles has protected the ball much better the last few games, and I think Sparty can at least contain Rutgers rushing attack to get the cover and the win in a close game. This is my Lock City pick of the week. Michigan State 23 Rutgers 20.
#10 INDIANA -29 Purdue
Purdue is 1-10 and is the worst team in the Big Ten and is likely looking at having their head coach fired on Sunday morning whether they win or lose this game. Their players may be thinking about the transfer portal more than this game but beating Indiana also could at least give them something positive about the season.
Indiana meanwhile has lost some momentum after getting beat at Ohio State last week 38-15 and prior to that beating Michigan 20-15 but they have scored just 18 points the last 6 quarters. But IU has so much to play for since a win would make them 11-1 and likely lock up a college football playoff berth.
Why Indiana Can Cover: Indiana is just flat out better than Purdue across the board. I don’t think there is a single position group where Purdue is better. Against great competition Purdue has lost by the following: 59 vs Notre Dame, 35 vs. Oregon, 45 at Ohio State and 39 vs. Penn State. All those are well over this 29-point spread and Indiana should be highly motivated to dominate their rival AND impress the committee to lock up their playoff berth. If IU would win by just a couple TDs would be bad, so I expect Cignetti to try to keep his foot on the gas.
On offense Indiana is 5th in the Big Ten at 426 total yards/game, while Purdue is dead last giving up 441 yards/game. Purdue has a bad pass and run defense, while Indiana is well balanced so they should get their offense back on track in this game.
Meanwhile the Purdue offense is 16th in the Big Ten at 320 yards/game and Indiana has the 2nd best defense giving up just 261 yards/game. It would be disappointing for IU if they let Purdue score even 14 points. Let’s say they get 10 which means IU needs 40 points to cover, which they have done in 7 of their 11 games.
Why take the points with Purdue: First is the motivation of ruining your archrivals miracle season. I expect Purdue to play hard to try to salvage their season. They did play hard in a seven-point loss at Michigan State last week.
The other factor is Indiana’s offensive line has greatly struggled the past 6 quarters against Michigan and Ohio State. The Indiana line has shown they can allow pressure, so I expect Purdue with nothing to lose is going to blitz a ton to make Indiana and QB Kurtis Rourke uncomfortable and get their offense off schedule.
Purdue is also going to need some success in the run game with Devin Mockobee who is averaging 5.4 yards/carry and has 666 yards on the year. For the year Purdue is averaging a solid 4.2 yards/carry.
Big Jeff’s Call: This is the first night game in the series and it’s expected to be really cold and likely in the 20’s during the game, plus fairly windy. I see this magnifying the need to run the football which is going to hold down the scoring. If this were in nice weather, I would like Indiana’s chances to cover 29 but not in these conditions. IU still wins easily though with their well-balanced attack and tough defense. Indiana 38 Purdue 13.
#1 OREGON -19 Washington
Oregon is 11-0, ranked #1 and coming off a bye while having already clinched a Big Ten championship berth. Oregon is two wins away from securing the #1 seed in the playoffs and getting a bye. Meanwhile, Washington is 6-5 and already bowl eligible after beating UCLA two weeks ago and coming off a bye week as well. They have won 3 straight vs. Oregon, including twice last year and Dan Lanning has never beaten the Huskies. This is the 117th meeting between these two bitter rivals.
Why Oregon Can Cover: Nineteen points is a lot in a rivalry game. Washington is 6-1 at home and 0-4 on the road with losses by 3 to Rutgers, 24 to Iowa, 14 to Indiana, and 29 to Penn State. Washington’s biggest weaknesses are both their lines and that is one of the bigger strengths for Oregon, especially their defensive line. Given the two losses last year, Oregon will be highly motivated to not just beat but dominate Washington.
Oregon has the #1 Big Ten offense based on total yards and are 3rd in scoring at 33.9 points/game. They are well balanced on offense ranking 3rd in passing and 6th in rushing. Washington’s defense is pretty good ranking 7th in the Big Ten in total yards and 8th in scoring defense giving up 20.5 points/game. Washington’s pass defense is second best in the Big Ten but only 15th in run defense giving up 152 yards/game. The weak run defense speaks to their weakness in the trenches. Oregon and 1,067-yard rusher Jordan James who averages 5.6 yards/carry should have a big day.
Oregon is good on defense as well ranking 4th in the Big Ten in total yards giving up at 288/game and are third in scoring defense at 15.7 points/game. Star Husky defensive Jordan Burch is questionable to play in this game.
Why take the points with Washington: It’s uncertain if Will Rogers will start at quarterback for Washington, or freshman QB Demond Williams who is much more mobile.
On offense Washington is 7th in Big Ten total offense BUT struggle to score ranking just 14th in the Big Ten at 22.6 points/game. The main issue is red zone offense where the Huskies rank 12th in the Big Ten scoring 81% of the time but only have 23 TDs in 42 red zone trips which is very bad. Oregon is only 11th in Big Ten red zone defense so the hope is the Huskies can execute better in the red zone while potentially leveraging a more dynamic QB like Demond Williams.
While Washington’s passing stats are more impressive ranking 6th in Big Ten total yards, I think the pass game will struggle against Oregon because their talented defensive line should generate good pressure on the Huskies similar to what Penn State did. I feel Washington needs to lean on star running back Jonah Coleman who has 1,008 rushing yards at 5.8 yards/carry and get him at least 20 carries to have success and keep the ball out of the Ducks hands.
The last two games Oregon has had less than 400 yards of offense, so their offense is not operating like it was early in the season.
Big Jeff’s Call: Whoever runs the ball best will dictate this game. Oregon will want to get their offense rolling again and hopefully it can after an off week where they looked like a tired team vs. Wisconsin. Oregon has only scored 40+ points once this year. If they score their average that is 34 points. They would have to hold Washington to 14 to cover. With this a rivalry game that will be difficult. I call the Ducks win convincingly but can’t score enough points to cover. Oregon 35 Washington 17.
