Because college football has no official pre-season, I believe you really can’t start to draw stronger conclusions on teams until they have played three games. By then, one of the three games is typically against at least an average Power 4 team and sometimes a really good team or even two. I think we are starting to learn what is real vs. what is not. So, let’s get into it and review the Week 3 Big Ten football top storylines.
1. Wisconsin lays egg vs Alabama in Madison 42-10 making it doubtful Luke Fickell’s Badgers will take a big leap in year two.
Big Ten Football Top 10 Storylines in 2024 – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)
In my pre-season Big Ten football top 10 storylines, I had rated as #7 the question on Wisconsin and Luke Fickell in year two asking “Can the Badgers take a big leap this year?”, after they went 7-6 in year one under Fickell.
Given his proven head coaching experience, other examples of coaches who make their teams much better in year two, including Fickell’s prior tenure with the Cincinnati Bearcats going from 4-8 in year one to 11-2 in year two, I expected we would see significant improvement.
Saturday’s stomping by the Tide, along with mediocre showings in their first two wins, now makes me say no, there will be no big leap in year two. This now puts a spotlight on Fickell’s surprising hiring of Air Raid guru and former North Carolina Offensive Coordinator Phil Longo as the Wisconsin OC. Since Barry Alvarez was hired in 1990, the Badgers were known for their big offensive lines, with physical and bruising running games backed by a tough and stingy defense.
That formula brought results that Badger fans had not seen in years including many Rose Bowl appearances. In fact, currently the Badgers have the nation’s longest streak of winning seasons at 22 (Power 5 only schools).
But in year, two there is no sign Fickell has the personnel to successfully run an Air Raid offense, and my worry is this offense would cause more time on the field for the defense likely making it worse, and that is what we have seen, with the Badger’s rated 16th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for defense. They usually are in the Top 5 or 10. In the Big 10 the Badgers defense is 12th of 18 teams giving up 302 yards/game.
Alabama made it clear the Badgers still don’t have the skilled cornerbacks needed to match up with dynamic offenses since Bama receivers consistently got open allowing quarterback Jalen Milroe to throw 3 touchdowns of 31, 26 and 37 yards.
On offense, the Badgers don’t have the minimum of 3-4 dynamic receivers you need to truly run the Air Raid, still have mediocre quarterback play, and most concerning lack the typical difference-making and NFL-ready running back they have had in the past like Jonathan Taylor, Melvin Gordon and Montee Ball.
It appears the Badgers still have a roster built to beat their old Big Ten West brethren like Iowa and Minnesota and not the likes of teams with skilled offenses like Oregon, USC and Ohio State. All this means I think Fickell’s year two will look similar to last year which has to be disappointing to Badger fans. But Fickell is too good of a coach not to adjust to have better success in the long-term.
2. Oregon finally looks like what we expected dominating rival Oregon State 49-14.
It took something called “The Civil War” to finally wake up the Oregon Ducks in game three and see them look impressive on both sides of the ball and dominate a team. The Ducks outgained the Beavers 546 to 309 and saw Dillon Gabriel be super-efficient again going 20-24 for 291 yards and 2 touchdowns. More importantly they got their running game cranked up with 240 yards rushing at 7.5 yards/carry led by Jordan James 12 carries for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns.
To be successful in the Big Ten, you need to have the ability to run the ball, so this is great news for the Ducks. Plus, Oregon cleaned up their mistakes with zero turnovers and just three penalties for 36 yards.
Meanwhile, the defense for the Ducks had a strong game after giving up 34 points the prior week to Boise State along with 192 yards rushing to Bronco’s star running back Ashton Jeanty. Oregon State had to have Ducks fans concerned with a very productive running game, but the Ducks totally kept the Beavers in check with just 131 rushing yards at 4.1 yards/carry.
For the season the Ducks defense ranks 11th of 18 teams in the Big Ten conference at 298 yards/game allowed so there is still room for improvement. But overall, if the Ducks play like they did this game they will be in good shape to make the 12-team playoffs and challenge for the Big Ten title.
3. In their first real test of the year, Washington falls at home 24-19 to arch-rival Washington State in the Apple Cup.
It was a tough day for Washington Huskies fans. Earlier in the day, they saw the coach that led them to the national title game just a year ago, take Alabama on the road to Wisconsin and dominate them 42-10 in Madison, indicating Kalen DeBoer will keep Bama as one of the sports premier programs.
Then against their arch-rivals, they shot themselves in the foot with 16 penalties for 135 yards. were just 4 of 13 on third downs, and yet had a chance to win after marching 66 yards late in the fourth quarter only to fail on a 4th and goal from the Washington State 1-yard line with 1:07 left in the game.
At 2-1 and with so many starters no longer here from last year, it’s still way too early to judge what kind of team the Huskies will be under first year coach Jedd Fisch. But losing to a rival at home won’t endear you to fans. The good news is Washington avoids the two Big Ten favorites in Ohio State and Oregon. And a home game vs pedestrian Northwestern in their Big Ten opener next week offers a great opportunity for the Huskies to get off to a good start in their new conference.
4. Indiana welcomes UCLA into the Big Ten with a 42-13 thrashing in the Rose Bowl indicating Kurt Cignetti’s Hoosiers are for real.
After putting up a school record 77 points last week vs. Western Illinois, I put the Hoosiers as the #6 top story in week two saying that perhaps Curt Cignetti will truly bring his winning touch to the Hoosiers. Well after the Hoosiers dominated UCLA in the Rose Bowl on Saturday in the Bruins first Big Ten game 42-13, the likely answer is not perhaps but yes Cignetti will win at Indiana.
This one was no fluke with Indiana grabbing control of the game from the start marching 75 yards on their opening drive ending with a 3-yard pass from Kurtis Rourke to Miles Cross. After a UCLA fumble on their first drive, it took Indiana three plays to score with Roarke finding Ke’Shawn Williams for a 14-yard touchdown reception making it 14-0 just halfway through the first quarter.
Indiana also had an impressive twelve play, 90-yard drive late in the second quarter to go up 21-0. UCLA scored a touchdown before the half, and then had a 28-yard field goal the first drive of the second half to pull within 21-10. But you knew it was going to be Indiana’s night when the next drive they went on a 9 play, 87-yard march capped by a 3-yard Rourke TD pass to Ke’Shawn Williams completely deflating the Bruins and their fans.
The final stats included Indiana outgaining UCLA 430 to 238 with Roarke leading the charge passing for 307 yards, and 4 TDs on 25-33 passing. And it could have been worse if not for Indiana’s 14 penalties for 127 yards helped by multiple very questionable targeting calls on the Hoosiers.
5. Has UCLA botched their new coaching hire from not letting Chip Kelly go in November 2023?
After the 2023 season, Chip Kelly had one year left on his contract and UCLA was in a tough spot. After six years at UCLA, Kelly was 35-34 overall, with just one Top 25 finish in 2022 (18th). The last three years the Bruins have been 8-4, 9-4 and 8-5 and were 16-11 within the Pac 12 conference. Not bad results, but also not what Bruin’s fans expect.
In November of 2023, they needed to either give a contract extension to Kelly or move on and seek a new coach. The UCLA admin did neither and it left Kelly as kind of a lame duck. It’s very difficult to recruit if prospects doubt you will be their coach within a couple years. It led to Kelly leaving UCLA to become Ohio State’s Offensive Coordinator on Feb 9, 2024.
By this time most other teams needing coaches already had made their hires and this left UCLA with much fewer viable candidates. They ended up hiring long-time running backs coach and UCLA alum, DeShaun Foster on February 12. Foster had never been a Coordinator let alone a head college coach, so this was quite a risky move.
Indiana rudely welcomed UCLA to the Big Ten on Saturday with a dominant 42-13 win in the Rose Bowl. It’s way too early to evaluate any coach but it does raise the question on how UCLA handled the Kelly situation and if they currently have the right man for the job.
6. Michigan gets the running game going in 28-18 win over Arkansas State, but the quarterback struggles continue.
You have probably heard the stat by now. Against the Arkansas State Wolves in Game 3, first year Michigan quarterback Davis Warren completed all 14 of his passes. Unfortunately, three of them were to the other team for interceptions as Warren went 11-14 for 122 yards but no touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
Michigan did get their running game going finally with 301 yards at 6.8 yards/carry led by Kalen Mullings with 15 carries for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns. Donovan Edwards piled up 82 yards at 4.8 per carry. With that still stingy and talented defense it is vital for Michigan to have a strong running game so they can execute a ball control offense to win games.
But the lack of a passing game is worrisome to compete with the better teams on their schedule and that starts with USC visiting the Big House this Saturday. On Monday morning in fact, first year coach Sherone Moore named Alex Orji as the starter this week in hopes of kick starting the offense. Orji has only thrown six passes in his career, so expect a limited offense on Saturday as Michigan will try to keep the explosive USC offense off the field.
7. Purdue suffers biggest defeat in program history to Notre Dame 66-7 raising questions about head coach Ryan Walters.
Going into week 3 and a home date vs. #16 Notre Dame coming off one of the worst losses in program history to Northern Illinois 16-14, did we know less about any other Big Ten team than Purdue?
They had played just one game vs. Indiana State in week 1 winning 49-0 and statistically Purdue dominated the game with 583 total yards to Indiana State’s 154. But Indiana State had gone 1-10 the prior year and were predicted by many to be next to last in the FCS Missouri Valley Conference.
Well Purdue was beaten across all phases by the Irish and found themselves down 42-0 at the half before losing 66-7 in a nationally televised game in the high-profile CBS afternoon time slot. Notre Dame outgained Purdue 580 to 162 and ran for 364 yards at 8.5 yards/carry in Purdue’s worst loss in their 137-year history.
It was an absolute alarming performance for Purdue considering they were just 9.5-point underdogs according to several sports books. This is year two for Ryan Walters after going 4-8 last year so he needs to prove he is up to the task in replacing a quality coach like Jeff Brohm who went 36-34 in his six seasons in West Lafayette.
Hiring the “hot coordinator” is always a risky move I feel for any program since there is no history of head coaching success. Certainly, similar to UCLA the blowout loss to the Irish has to have Boiler fans wondering if they have the right head coach.
8. Illinois beats Central Michigan 30-9 to move to 3-0 on season and enters the Top 25 before a big clash at Nebraska.
Speaking of hiring a hot coordinator vs. a known and successful college coach. Illinois hired Bret Bielema in 2021 and in three seasons coming into this year he was 18-19. The two prior hires were not proven college coaches with Lovie Smith going 17-39 over 5 seasons and prior to that Tim Beckman who went 12-25 over 3 seasons.
On Saturday, Illinois beat Central MIchigan 30-9 to move to 3-0 on the season and enter the AP Top 25 at #24 this week for the second time in Bielema’s Illini tenure. Junior quarterback Luke Altmyer is playing well for Illinois and went 19-29 for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns.
And while this Illini defense may not have the star power of the past couple seasons, they are performing well holding the Chippewas to 309 total yards and for the year the defense is 5th in the Big Ten allowing only 8.7 points/game.
Illinois fans can only hope Bielema turns the Illini into another version of his Wisconsin teams where he went 68-24 over seven years and amazingly has the second most wins in Wisconsin history behind Barry Alvarez. We will find out much more about the Illini as they play #22 Nebraska this Friday night.
9. Minnesota shuts out Nevada 27-0 as new QB Max Brosmer settles into the job.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers have been held back by mediocre quarterback play and the lack of a consistent passing game the last several years. P.J. Fleck brought in proven former New Hampshire quarterback and senior Max Brosmer this year to hopefully address that issue.
So far Brosmer has been solid as he adapts to Division 1 football going 16-26 for 191 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. The Gophers dominated the stats with a 20 to 10 first down advantage and 386 total yards to Nevada’s 172. And the run game remains a strength as the Gophers had 195 yards rushing at 6.1 yards/carry.
For the season, Minnesota is 11th of 18 Big Ten teams in passing at 220 yards/game. With a continued strong run game being in the middle of the pack in passing offers hope the Gophers can be in the top half of the Big Ten standings. This week though, the competition steps up quite a bit with a home game vs. Iowa. The Gophers need Brosmer to play well to beat the Hawkeyes.
10. Maryland bounces back from Michigan State loss with an important 27-13 road win over Virginia.
After a very disappointing Week 2 loss at home to Michigan State 27-24, Maryland bounced back in a big way in an important 27-13 win on the road vs. the Virginia Cavaliers of the ACC to move to 2-1. Maryland’s schedule is tough enough in the new Big Ten that a win in this game could be looked back on as vital to the Terps making a bowl game.
Coming back from being down 13-7 at the half shows this team may have a resilience that recent Terps teams have lacked. Four Cavalier turnovers certainly helped though. Wide receiver Tai Felton was the star in this one with 9 receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown and for the year has 27 receptions for 447 yards. Felton has gone over 100 yards in all 3 games and leads the Big Ten in receiving yards and is tied for the touchdown lead with four.
The Terps are getting good production from new QB Billy Edwards Jr. who was 28-43 for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns and for the year is second in the Big Ten in passing yards only behind Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel.
A little concerning is Maryland averaged just 3.5 yards/carry and 128 yards on the day. For the year, in the Big Ten Maryland ranks just 15th of 18 teams in yards/carry at 4.1. The Terps are likely to need a more efficient rushing attack to make a bowl game this year.
Big Ten Football: Conference Names Week 3 Players of the Week (msn.com)
