Big Jeff’s Week 4 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Week 3 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 4 picks, let’s first review how I did in Week 3. 

(Odds by FanDuel on 9.11.25).

Comments:

• This week I got UCLA right on Friday night and then in the Noon Wisconsin game got that one right in choosing Alabama.  I was 2-0 and Oregon was blowing out Northwestern up 34-0 early in 4Q and things were looking great for a 3-0 start but then …
• Northwestern scores 2 touchdowns in the last 5 minutes of the game to cover the -27.5 and lose by 20 and all went down hill from there as I went 2-3 overall making my year-to-date record 6-9.
• Have to say, these early season games with really bad schedules makes it very hard to assess how good teams are and thus to bet games.
• A few comments on what I got right and wrong to comment on the team.

What I Got Right:

• I took New Mexico getting 15.5 points over UCLA and unfortunately was right in one of the worst UCLA games in years and of course it cost DeShaun Foster his job.
  • I won’t comment more on this other than UCLA needs to get a coach with prior very successful college coaching experience – ideally at more than one stop– even if they coached at a lower level.   It can’t be the Hot Coordinator in my view.
• I took Bama laying 21.5 to Wisconsin mostly based on I knew Wisconsin was unlikely to score more than 10 points – the offense is bad.
  • What was shocking is how bad the Badgers secondary was which does not bode well when they play Oregon and Ohio State, but most had this game as a loss anyway. 
  • The Badgers badly need Billy Edwards Jr.  back and their offensive line to play better.

What I Got Wrong:

• I lost the Oregon game only because of those late scores by Northwestern.  The Wildcats are who I thought.  A decent defense and terrible offense.
  • Oregon remains the least talked about great team in college football.
• From here I really got unlucky with my picks
• I took USC laying the 21.5 points at Purdue but once they had that long lightning delay to start the game I knew I was cooked.
  • As the road team, USC was already maybe a little road weary but the delay would only magnify that and dampen their sharpness so they lost by 16.
  • For USC though, any road win in East coast timezone is a great win.
• Finally, I chose Minnesota laying 2.5 points in a night game at Cal
  • Then on Sat afternoon got wind Minnesota’s biggest weapon on offense RB Darious Taylor would be out – where the hell did that come from?
  • This is why college needs the NFL like injury rules because if I would have known that prior I would have flat out taken Cal to win this game which they did 27-14.
• Ugh.  Thankfully we move into the conference season now.

Big Jeff’s Week 3 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Big Jeff’s Football

Forde-Yard Dash: Prove-It Weekend Will Separate the Real From the Hype 

Week 4 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 9.18.25.

This week we have 8 total games and 5 in-conference games and my 5 games to pick this week will be those 5 games.  Here are the spreads for the other 3 games.

Big Ten Non-Conference Games

OREGON -35.5 Oregon State

NOTRE DAME -25.5 Purdue

Washington -20.5 WASHINGTON STATE

Game 1: Iowa -2.5 RUTGERS (45.5 O/U)

Background:

The all-time winningest coach in Big Ten football history (Kirk Feretnz) brings his Iowa Hawkeyes into Piscataway NJ against Rutgers on Friday night.  Iowa is 2-1 including their close 16-13 loss at #12 Iowa State in Week 2.   Iowa beat FCS University of Albany in Week 1 and then pounded UMass in Week 3 in a “get right” game 47-7.

Although UMass might be the worst FBS team in football (they rank 136^th which is last in ESPN’s SP+ rankings), it was still great to see new transfer QB Mark Gronowski finally get the passing game moving going 16-24 for 179 yards and 2 TDs as the Hawkeyes outgained the Minutemen 435 to 119. 

This is a badly needed shot of confidence for Gronowski and the team, since the Hawkeyes once again have a strong defense ranking 2^nd in the Big Ten giving up 178 total yards/game but 3^rd to last in Total Offense and still are dead last in the Big Ten in passing at 122 yards/game. Plus, Iowa has the 8^th toughest schedule remaining in the nation (and 4^th toughest in Big Ten) so winning this game may be needed to reach 7 or 8 wins.

Meanwhile Rutgers is 3-0 and have solid wins against Mid-American teams Ohio and Miami (OH) but this is a huge game as the Scarlet Knights remaining schedule according to PFF ranks as 2^nd toughest in the Big Ten (behind Wisconsin) and 4^th toughest in the nation.  Rutgers only has 4 Big Ten home games so beating Iowa this week might be required for them to get to 6 wins and make a bowl game.  Before the season I had Rutgers 5-7 and losing to Iowa but with QB Athan Kaliakmanis and their pass game being so effective they have a good chance to beat the Hawkeyes.

Iowa and Rutgers have only played each other 4 times with Iowa winning all of them and the first game played in 2016.  The most Rutgers has scored on Iowa is 10 points in 2022 and in the last meeting in 2023 Rutgers lost in Iowa City 22-0.  But this team is much different under Schiano, so I don’t put much stock in that.

Why Iowa Can Cover:

It’s very unlikely Rutgers can stop Iowa’s rushing attack behind the Big Ten’s leading offensive line (from PFF) mitigating Iowa’s weakness of having the worst passing game in the Big Ten.  Iowa has shown no signs of consistently passing the ball with Mark Gronowski under center, but it might not matter asIowa is 6^th in Big Ten (30^th in the nation) rushing at 214 yards/game and 4.86 YPC.   

Rutgers is 3^rd to last in Big Ten giving up 149 yards/game, which is 90^th in the nation and they are giving up a dreadful 5.58 yards/carry which is 128^th in the nation.

According to PFF, Iowa’s run blocking is the best in the Big Ten (84.6 grade), while Rutgers run defense ranks only 16^th in the Big Ten (70.4 grade).  Iowa’s run game vs Rutgers run defense is a real mismatch. 

In battles between really good passing vs. running attacks I tend to favor the running team.  And a good rushing game travels better than passing games. 

Based on QB Mark Gronowski’s last game of throwing for 179 yards, maybe Iowa will maintain better production in their passing game to supplement their strong rushing attack.  Maybe.

That Iowa defense.  It’s still really good ranking 2^nd in the Big Ten and 3^rd in the nation in Total Defense.   Plus, the Hawkeyes are tied for 6^th in the Big Ten and 14^th in the nation in scoring defense at 10 points/game and have only given up a high of 16 points.  They are very capable of holding Rutgers under 20 points if they win in the trenches.

Why Take the Points with Rutgers:  

Based on how Athan Kaliakmanis is playing Rutgers should have a huge advantage at the Quarterback position over Mark Gronowski who struggled big time in his only away game at Iowa State.  On the road vs Iowa State Gronwoski went 13-24 for only 83 yards and zero TDs with 1 interception.  Iowa also lacks strong receiver weapons with Sam Phllips as their leading receiver after three games with 4 receptions for 90 yards, plus Iowa lost senior starting Tight End Addison Ostrenga to a season ending injury.

Meanwhile, Kaliakmanis is completing 73% of his passes which has been a revelation as he has had more like a 54% percentage in his first 3 years playing college QB.  He is averaging 273 passing yards/game with 7 TDs and 0 interceptions which is why Rutgers is +4 in Turnover margin.  

In fact, PFF gives Kaliakmanis the best Big Ten QB passing grade at 92.0.  And he has big-time weapons to throw to in the 3 headed monster of KJ Duff (244 yards), Ian Strong (216 yards), and transfer DT Sheffield (201 yards) all of whom have 2 touchdowns.  Though Strong may be out this game after missing the game last week and running back CJ Campbell is out but Rutgers has good running back depth.

If Rutgers offensive line can hold their own against an excellent Iowa front four, their Big Ten best pass offense should move the ball well. According to PFF, Rutgers passing offense ranks as the best in the Big Ten (92.6 grade), and pass blocking grade is ranked 3^rd (85.8 grade). Iowa’s defensive pass coverage ranks only 10^th in the Big Ten (78.1 grade), BUT the Hawkeyes are first in the Big Ten in defensive pass rush grade (88.9).

The more macro numbers does show Iowa’s pass defense is still really good ranking 4^th in the Big Ten (and 13^th in the nation) giving up 120 yards/game and 15^th in the nation at 4.81 yards/attempt.  Iowa even held the best team and quarterback they faced in Iowa State’s Rocco Becht to 18-27 passing, 134 yards and 1 TD with 0 interceptions.  But the only caveat is none of Iowa’s opponents come close to having the receiver core that Rutgers has.

Iowa is much easier to beat on the road than at home.  In last years 6-3 Big Ten season the Hawkeyes went 4-0 at home and 1-3 on the road losing to Minnesota 31-14, Michigan State 32-20 and UCLA 20-17.  With a Friday night game, I think it will be a good rowdy Rutgers home field advantage.

Big Jeffs Call: Both teams have actually played decent competition in the non-conference.  This game will come down to whether the strong Iowa running attack or the Rutgers Big Ten leading passing attack will be more effective moving down the field and generating points.   

And then red zone execution will be at a premium with this expected to be a lower scoring game.   I don’t like betting this game because we still don’t know what Iowa is going to get from QB Mark Gronowski.  But, I am going to go with Iowa to win and cover in a tight game because Iowa only lost by 3 at #12 Iowa State, while Rutgers struggled to win by 3 in their toughest game at home vs. Ohio  who has a SP+ rank of 87.  Plus, I trust Ferentz and staff more than Schiano’s staff.  Iowa 24 Rutgers 21.

Game 2: WISCONSIN -10.5 Maryland (43.5 O/U)

Background:

This is a battle between teams with the two coaches who entered the year most on the hot seat in Luke Fickell and Mike Locksley.   Plus, we have the potential for Wisconsin quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. to play against his old team but his injury status has been listed as “day-to-day” at this time.

Wisconsin is 2-1 after looking bad in a loss at Alabama 38-14 last week and their best win is over Miami (Ohio) who are 115^th in ESPN’s SP+ rankings.  In the first two games, the defense played well and looked like a clear strength of the team.  Against Alabama, I knew the Wisconsin offense would struggle especially with QB Billy Edwards Jr. still out but it was surprising the defense looked so poor against a one-dimensional Alabama offense that had receivers consistently open all day. 

According to PFF, Wisconsin has the 2^nd toughest remaining schedule in the nation so beating Maryland at home is likely an early must win for the Badgers to get 6 wins for bowl eligibility as 5 of their remaining 8 Big Ten games will be against AP Top 25 teams. 

Maryland meanwhile is 3-0 after the non-conference season which is not surprising since Mike Locksley has always won his non-conference slate at Maryland.  But what might be different is the promising play of true freshman 4-star QB Malik Washington who is completing 62% of his passes for 258 yards/game with 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. He also ranks 5^th in PFF Big Ten QB passer rating (82.7 grade).

Maryland’s best win is against 106th ESPN SP+ rated Northern Illinois 20-9 so they really haven’t been tested yet and this will be their first road game of the year and for young QB Malik Washington.  If Maryland could steal a win vs the Badgers, it could greatly help potentially secure a bowl berth.

Why Wisconsin Can Cover:

Maryland is one dimensional ranking last in Big Ten rushing so the Badgers will look to confuse young QB Washington and should be able to contain the Terps passing game.  Yes, the Badgers pass coverage looked terrible vs. Alabama but they have excellent receivers led by elite Ryan Williams and Maryland’s receivers look solid so far this year but certainly aren’t as good as Alabama’s.  But the Badgers run defense has been elite so far giving up just 1.9 yards/carry, which is 2^nd in the nation and 4^th best in the Big Ten.

Maryland only has rushed for 117 yards/game against weak competition so that is rather alarming.  Their leading rusher is freshman DeJuan Williams with 121 yards rushing at 3.8 yards/carry and as a team they average only 3.5 yards/rush.

With a freshman QB, Maryland is an impressive 7^th in the Big Ten in passing at 266 yards/game so that will still be a big challenge for the Wisconsin defense ranking only 16^th in Big Ten pass defense (224 ypg).  The Badgers hope they can create pressure on the young QB like they did in their first two games.

Why take the points with Maryland: 

Maryland’s defense seems to be best against the run (vs the pass) which seems to be a good fit as the Badgers have struggled to throw the ball and would prefer to establish the run game and control the ball.   Maryland is 10^th in Big Ten run defense at 103 yards/game but just 15^th in Big Ten passing defense (199 ypg), while Wisconsin is 16^th in the Big Ten in pass offense and their run offense is a disappointing 15^th in the Big Ten at 137 yards/game and only 3.8 yards/rush with only one rusher over 100 yards (Dilin Jones with 134 and 4.6 ypc).

The biggest culprit seems to be a struggling Wisconsin offensive line that has some injury and depth issues.  Maryland has a chance to shut down the Wisconsin run game forcing them to throw more than they want with likely QB Danny O’Neil who PFF rates as the second worst starting passer in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin will struggle to score enough points to cover 9.5 especially given their first half struggles.   Wisconsin is 16^th in the Big Ten averaging 24.3 points/game and that includes playing SP+ 115^th rated Miami (OH) and FCS Middle Tennessee State.  First half struggles have been the culprit as the Badgers scored just 3, 14 and 0 points in the first half this year.  They have done better in the second half but that may be due to poor competition or in the case of Bama the game was already decided.  Against a Big Ten team with better depth scoring may not open up in the second half.

Maryland actually has played pretty well on the road in the Big Ten the last two years under Locksley while Wisconsin has struggled at home under Fickell.   Locksley is 3-6 overall having gone 3-2 two years ago and 0-4 last year but that included losses to 3 playoff teams in Indiana, Oregon and Penn State.

In contrast, the last two years under Fickell at Wisconsin he went 2-3 two years ago and 1-3 last season for a Big Ten home record of 3-6.   The Wisconsin home field advantage is not what it used to be under Fickell.

Big Jeff’s Call: The key to this game is if Wisconsin can rattle and confuse the young Maryland quarterback Malik Washington and make him play like the freshman he is since the Terps should not be able to run the ball.  Then can Wisconsin generate more offense from a unit that likely has little confidence.  I think Maryland is confident and gives Wisconsin a tough game, but the Badgers get their “must win” game but don’t cover the 10.5.  I take Maryland and the points. Wisconsin 24 Maryland 17.

Game 3: #21 Michigan -2.5 NEBRASKA (44.5 O/U)

Background:

Can 3-0 Nebraska snap a 27-game losing streak to Top 25 teams?  That’s right, the Blueblood Cornhuskers have lost 27 straight with their last Top 25 win in 2016 against Oregon.  And a win against Michigan would vault the Cornhuskers into the Top 25 and cause rejoicing in Lincoln.

For both programs this is a huge game because the remainder of their schedules are the two easiest in the Big Ten, making them both legit strong contenders to make the playoffs.  Nebraska has the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule per PFF strength of schedule at only the 38^th toughest in the nation.  Michigan has the second easiest Big Ten schedule per PFF at 28^th in the nation.  Nebraska avoids Top 25 teams Ohio State, Oregon, Illinois and Indiana while Michigan does not play Top 25 teams Penn State, Oregon, Illinois and Indiana.

For 2-1 Michigan, we also will find out how much true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has grown since the loss at Oklahoma as well as if the coaching staff has learned the right formula to level his tremendous skill set.  Sherrone Moore is out this week again on suspension but as we saw last week maybe that is not a bad thing.

Why Michigan Can Cover:

Bryce Underwood’s breakout game last week in a 63-3 whipping of Central Michigan is a sign that upside for Michigan’s offense might come earlier than I thought and give him more confidence for this second road test.  At Oklahoma week 2 Bryce Underwood not surprisingly struggled going 9-24 for 142 yards and no TDs.  Last week he excelled, going 16-25 for 235 yards (1 TD, 1 Int.) and even rushed 9 times for 114 yards and 2 TDs. 

This is what Michigan fans were waiting to see, and it likely came from the coaching staff realizing they needed to let a talent like this loose more.  And with Michigan’s offensive line struggling, it’s a must for them to win.  They are not good enough to simply only try to play smash mouth football and great defense to win games. Michigan needs to develop a game plan not dependent on Underwood reading coverages but to maximize his dual threat ability as much as possible.

Despite Underwood’s big game last week and the offensive line struggles, Michigan still wants to run the ball and control the clock, and they have a star running back in Justice Haynes that can get them there.  With the help of Underwoods legs, Michigan ranks 4^th in the Big Ten at 243 yards/game and 6.1 yards/rush.

But the big running threat has been Alabama transfer Justice Haynes who is averaging 129 rushing yards/game at 7.9 yards/carry with 5 touchdowns.  And he’s a threat to take it to the house at any time.

Given that Nebraska ranks just 15^th in Big Ten rushing defense (136 ypg) and 75^th in the nation (though they only give up 4.0 yards/carry), it feels Michigan should be able to run the ball to help limit possessions for Nebraska.

Though Husker QB Dylan Raiola is playing well, he is not nearly as mobile as Oklahoma’s John Mateer who gave the Wolverines fits so Michigan can contain Nebraska’s offense.  Of the 408 yards Oklahoma had against Michigan, John Mateer accounted for 270 yards passing and 74 yards rushing for 344 yards total or 84% of the offense. 

That type of dynamic play is hard to defend.  Michigan’s young defense will improve as the year goes along, and it will help that Nebraska doesn’t want to rely on running Raiola to pick up yards.

Why take the points with Nebraska: 

QB Dylan Raiola’s growth in Year 2 and better passing game efficiency.  Guess who leads the Big Ten in pass offense? USC right?  Close (they are second) but it’s the Huskers who average 366 passing yards/game, which is also 5^th in the nation after improving to 65^th in the nation in passing last year, up from 126^th in 2023.  And this includes playing a good Cincinnati team with an SP+ ranking of 44.  It has helped make Nebraska’s total offense (at 545 ypg) 4^th in the Big Ten and 10^th in the nation while averaging 49 points/game.

I had Nebraska going 9-3 this year because I expected a big leap in Raiola’s play in his second season under OC Dana Holgorsen’s offense.  Raiola is completing 77% of his passes (up from 67% last year), averaging 276 passing yards/game, with 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions after a 13/11 TD to INT ratio last year.  That is huge progress and also why Nebraska is +4 in turnover margin after being -2 last season.

Meanwhile Michigan’s pass defense is a solid but unspectacular 10^th in the Big Ten giving up 182 yards/game.  A big factor has been the first-round defensive line talent they lost from last year including Top 5 pick Mason Graham.

Can confuse Underwood with different looks and keep him in the pocket and contain him.  I feel the Husker defensive game plan should be very similar as Ohio State used against Texas and Arch Manning where the defensive ends did not fly up the field but instead kept Manning contained within the pocket forcing him to make good throws downfield.  That combined with changing secondary looks could draw mistakes from the young QB and won’t let him use his legs like he wants.

This Nebraska team feels different under Rhule and will have a big home field advantage.  Since arriving in Lincoln 3 years ago, coach Matt Rhule has not just focused on upgrading Nebraska’s talent but more importantly to change their mindset. Nebraska had become mentally soft which was a reason they lost so many one score games.

Rhule has focused on building mental toughness and a winning mindset which is why vs Akron in Game 2 he went off on the team at halftime despite leading 33-0 because winning programs don’t change how they play based on the score. That mindset changeshould pay off in big games like this, especially with strong and positive home field support.

Big Jeff’s Call: I had Nebraska winning this game in my pre-season predictions partially based on how Bryce Underwood would have his early struggles.  Underwood looks like the real deal but it’s still a tall task in just his second college road game and with a somewhat struggling offensive line to excel. 

I think the difference is Raiola’s experience and efficiency in year 2 and with what will certainly be a fired-up Nebraska crowd.  I like Nebraska to cover and win outright and position the Huskers as a playoff threat.  Nebraska 27 Michigan 20.

Game 4: #19 INDIANA -6.5 #9 Illinois (52.5 O/U)

Background:

This game is FINALLY here and it’s a HUGE one for both teams.  As expected, both teams enter the game as AP Top 25 teams and the thinking all off season that holds true is the winner of this game put themselves in excellent position to potentially make the playoffs given their schedules.  Illinois can prove their #9 ranking and Indiana can prove that last year was no fluke AND they are the ones who should be ranked #9.

Plus, Illinois vs Indiana has not been a ranked game since 1950 and is the first matchup of AP Top 20 teams in Bloomington Indiana since 1987 and I witnessed it as a freshman at Indiana!  #15 IU beat #20 Michigan 14-10 on Oct 24.

For Illinois, there couldn’t be any more optimism as they are in the Top 10 for the first time since 1983 and have a veteran quarterback in Luke Altmyer playing at a high level.  Illinois is one of the few Big Ten teams with a marquee Power 4 win at Duke (with an ESPN SP+ rank of 65) in Week 2. 

The Illini are 3-0 and have a very reasonable Big Ten schedule that PFF ranks as tied for 10^th hardest in the Big Ten (19th in the nation) and does not include Oregon, Penn State and Michigan but does include Indiana, Ohio State and USC where they can earn some style points.  But it also points to the importance of winning this since other than Ohio State there is no guarantee they will be able to claim another Top 25 win. 

Indiana also is 3-0 but their story is different since they played an abysmal non-conference schedule that is ranked 129^th in the nation according to PFF and whose best win is beating #81 SP+ ranked Old Dominion.  Indiana’s remaining schedule of all Big Ten teams is rated only 12^th toughest in the Big Ten (21^st in the nation) and they don’t play top 25 teams Ohio State, Michigan, and USC. 

They do play at Oregon and Penn State that would garner huge respect but if they don’t win those games it means beating Illinois could be the only Top 25 victory they can claim, and it would be the first for Curt Cignetti in year 2.  I again I think this win would cement in many more people’s minds that Indiana is legit and are here to stay.

Why Indiana can cover:

Illinois is a great coached football team and deserving of the Top 25 – I just have felt all off season and still do today, that they were very fortunate last year and are not a Top 10 like football team this year and Indiana is better.  The biggest stat I like to quote is how Illinois on average was outgained last year in yards per game giving up 373 yards/game on defense while averaging 365 yards/game on offense.

Based on in-game stats for last year an ESPN metric had their projected win total at 8.2 for 8 wins instead of the 10-3 record they had.  Just because Illinois returned 17 starters off a 10-win team, everyone assumes Illinois would be much better this year, but I don’t think so.  And I like how well-rounded Indiana is with no glaring weakness and they are very well coaches also.  But with a big win in this game, Illinois can tell Big Jeff to shove it.

Indiana is the definition of a balanced offense and will be extremely difficult for Illinois to contain.  Granted it has been against inferior competition, but the stats are still impressive.  Indiana is 2^nd in the Big Ten and 3^rd in the nation in total offense at 592 yards/game, 4^th in the Big Ten in passing offense (at 284 yards/game) and first in the Big Ten in run offense and 3^rd in the nation at 308 yards/game.

They have a talented and experienced quarterback in Fernando Mendoza playing at a high-level ranking 4^th in the Big Ten by PFF in passing with a 71% completion rate and 9 TDs with 0 interceptions.  He has two star receivers in Omar Cooper Jr (299 yards) and Elijah Sarratt (164 yards) and three running back with at least 200 yards rushing (though Kaelon Black is out for the year now with a knee injury) as Indiana averages 6.9 yards/rush.

Meanwhile, Illinois is just 9^th in the Big Ten in total defense, 13^th in pass defense and 5^th in rushing defense.  Good but not great.  I definitely think Indiana will put up points on this Illinois defense.

Illinois’ Offensive Line with 5 starting returning was not very good last year and still aren’t very good this year.  Per PFF, Illinois has the 8^th best rated offensive line player in tackle J.C. Davis and then Josh Gesky is rated #18 but then it drops down to #76 to find Center Josh Kreutz and then Guard Brandon Anderson is in the Top 100 at #93 but these stats don’t add up to a top-level offensive line.   

Illinois leads the Big Ten giving up 9 sacks this year and Duke put all kinds of pressure on Altmyer, especially in the first half.  Indiana is talented up front led by Defensive End Mikhael Kamara and will win this battle.

Why take the points with Illinois: 

Luke Altmyer is an experienced QB playing maybe better than any Big Ten quarterback and has more important game experience than IU QB Mendoza.  Altmyer ranks as the 8^th Big Ten PFF passer (with a grade of 77.7) but is completing 70% of his passes at 236 yards/game but most importantly is making great decisions with 8 TDs and 0 interceptions.  I have been extremely impressed with him and feel he is the best and most valuable player on the team.

Illinois defensive end Gabe Jacas is playing like an NFL dude and can cause havoc for Indiana.  He leads the conference in sacks with 3.5 and leads the Illini with 4 TFLs.   He often comes from the edge outside the tackles and Indiana’s line must account for him.

Illinois and Bret Bielema know how to play and win in close games like this is expected to be (going 5-1 last year) while IU lacks close game experience going just 1-0 last year.   Illinois continues to do all the little things well that it takes to win close games.  I hated Indiana’s powder puff non-conference schedule this year since weak competition doesn’t make you better, doesn’t make you battle tested, and doesn’t get you used to playing in close games.  Advantage Illinois here.

Big Jeff’s Call: Both these teams excel in limiting mistakes and getting turnovers with Illinois +6 and Indiana +4 in turnovers.  But I think Indiana is better overall and more balanced than Illinois and will ride the night home crowd to a victory and covers the spread with a 10-point win.  This is my LOCK CITY pick of the week as IU slows down the Illinois hype train.  Indiana 34 Illinois 24.

Game 5: #25 USC -18.5 vs. Michigan State (-56.5 O/U)

Background:

This is a matchup of 3-0 teams as Michigan State has to travel across the country to USC to play a late 10 pm EST game.  They did that once last year at Oregon and lost 31-10 and which is a respectable score.

Michigan State has the 107^th strength of schedule (SOS) so far according to PFF that includes as their best win a 42-40 home win over Power 4 school Boston College.  That was a very important win for the Spartans quest for at least 6 wins and bowl eligibility because they have the 7^th hardest Big Ten PFF SOS and 12^th toughest in the country playing AP top 25 teams USC, Indiana, Michigan and Penn State but they avoid Ohio State and Oregon.  5 of their 9 Big Ten games are on the road.

USC might be the most under the radar team in the Big Ten but did crack into the Top 25 in Week 3 at #25.  It still seems like they are not getting respect from the media but Vegas has liked them all off-season and has them more like a Top 15 team based on championship odds.  I have viewed USC as the Big Ten team that might have the most upside vs expectations and is a legit playoff contender.

USC has played the 94^th toughest schedule in the nation and the remaining SOS is a reasonable 22^nd and looks easier than it did before with Notre Dame’s defense struggling as they have had an 0-2 start.  USC avoids Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana.

Why USC can cover: 

This might be one of those prolific, almost impossible to stop offenses under Lincoln Riley that is #1 in the nation in total yardage (604 ypg) and #1 in scoring (55.0 ppg) going up against Michigan State’s defense that rates as 16^th in the Big Ten at 338 ypg.  And worse yet, Michigan State’s pass defense which ranks last in the Big Ten giving up 273 yards/game, while USC’s passing offense is 2^nd in the Big Ten and 6^th in the nation at 364 yards/game.

Jaiden Maiava is playing great and efficient with 69% completions, a Big Ten best 330 yards/game, 6 TDs and 0 interceptions and 12.9 yards/attempt which is 2^nd best in the nation.  He is the highest rated QB in FBS in ESPN’s ratings and has two NFL caliber wide receivers to throw to in Makai Lemon (311 yards) and Ja’Kobi Lane (239 yards).  

USC also is balanced as their run game is also good at 5^th in Big Ten in rushing at 240 yards/game and 7.0 yards/carry led by RB Waymond Jordan who has 286 yards and 7.3 yards/carry.

Negative impact on Michigan State traveling 3 time zones and playing at 10 pm EST is a real potential factor in the Spartans performance.

Motivation of the USC coaches and players.  This team and staff has to be tired of the disappointment of the last two seasons and feel frankly disrespected by the media having only broken into the Top 25 this week.  Players playing with a chip on their shoulders is a dangerous thing.

Why take the points with Michigan State:

Aidan Chiles improvement at quarterback gives Michigan State a significant upside on offense and could allow Michigan State to score enough points against a mediocre at best USC defense.  This year Chiles is completing 72% of passes with 6 TDs and only one interception.  Ever since the middle of last year he has taken care of the ball well so his turnover issues are over.

Despite that Michigan State’s offensive stats are not impressive at 13^th in the Big Ten in total offense (387 ypg), also 13^th in pass offense (219 ypg), and 12^th in rush offense at 4.5 yards/carry. They also are giving up the 2^nd most sacks in the Big Ten with 8. 

The good news is USC’s defense has not been impressive, ranking 14^th in total defense (319 ypg) and 2^nd to last in Big Ten pass defense (233 ypg).  But USC has been a solid 7^th in Big Ten run defense (86 ypg) and only giving up 2.9 yards/carry so Sparty will likely have to rely on Chiles and the pass game, but a worry is star receiver Nick Marsh is questionable for the game and they have a handful of other injuries.

Beyond that I struggle to find other significant Michigan State advantages.  But one is discipline and the hidden yards as USC has 22 penalties this year for an average of 80 yards/game vs only 35 yards/game for Michigan State.

Big Jeff’s Call: USC will be highly motivated, and I love the mismatch of USCs elite pass offense going against Michigan State’s biggest weakness in pass defense.  Michigan State gave up 457 yards to BC and 339 yards to FCS Youngstown State and USC is obviously much better than both, so I don’t see them containing USC and scoring enough to keep pace. 

Lincoln Riley is not afraid to keep his foot on the gas pedal more than other coaches making a late backdoor cover less likely for Michigan State, thought that is still a big threat.  Bottom line this is a very bad matchup for Michigan State and I like USC to win big and cover the points.  USC 42 Michigan State 21.