In week 4 we finally started to get into the meat of the Big Ten schedule with a huge matchup at the Big House.
1. USC falls in Big Ten opener at Michigan offering their fans both hope and frustration at the same time.
USC’s first Big Ten game has to be the #1 among the week 4 Big Ten football top storylines. The question for the USC Trojans coming into this year was can they improve the fundamentals, physicality and results from their defense to compete for a Big Ten title and become a college football playoff contender?
Against a Michigan offense operating like a 1950’s team who is allergic to the forward pass, in the first half USC was completely bullied by both the Wolverine offensive and defensive lines falling behind 14-0 halfway through the second quarter. It was USC’s fans worst nightmare since they thought this defense was different and they are tired of hearing about how they won’t be physical enough up front to excel in the Big Ten.
Even their prolific offense couldn’t get anything going in the first half and it looked like it might be a Wolverines blowout.
But to the Trojans credit, and on the encouraging side, they started to adjust and settle in playing much better up front. Especially when they moved some players around on their offensive line to start the second half where they marched 75 yards in 12 plays for a TD on the first drive making it 14-10 announcing this is going to be a fight.
Ultimately though, mistakes and missed opportunities were the undoing for the Trojans including a Miller Moss pick six to All-American cornerback Will Johnson for a 42-yard touchdown to make it 20-10 Michigan in the third quarter. Then after going up 24-20 on a 24-yard Moss TD pass with 7:01 left in the game, the Trojans got the ball back with 5:01 left and had a chance to ice the game, but had a false start and two incomplete passes to give the ball back to Michigan with 4:10 left
Lincoln Riley should have run the ball to wind down the clock, forcing Michigan to pass to get down the field quickly. USC would pay for this, leaving Michigan with plenty of time left and RB Kalel Mullings breaking off a 63-yard run that resulted in Michigan punching it in on 4th and goal from the one with 0:37 seconds left to win 27-24.
While it was encouraging the USC defense settled in and played much better as did the offensive line in the second half, the reality is they lost to a team who they knew was not going to try to pass and still gave up 290 yards rushing at 6.3 yards/carry and on offense only produced 96 yards rushing at 4.6 yards/carry.
Clearly USC is much better on defense, but this was a lost opportunity by USC and coach Riley to announce themselves as a major Big Ten and playoff contender.
2. Michigan goes Old School running over USC in 27-24 upset, keeping hopes for playoff appearance alive.
To keep their hopes to make the 12-team playoff, this was a “must win” for Michigan on Saturday. With new QB Davis Warren the first three games throwing 6 interceptions with just 2 touchdowns and a struggling offense , coach Sherrone Moore really had to make a change.
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Michigan started Alex Orji vs. the Trojans and he went 7-12 for 32 yards and 43 yards rushing, but the move worked as Michigan ran for 290 total yards at 6.3 yards/carry, led by running back Kalel Mullings 159 yards and 2 touchdowns in the upset win.
Michigan’s defense returned to form looking more like the rugged unit everyone was expecting holding USC to just 96 yards rushing and generating two turnovers, including Will Johnson’s key third quarter 42-yard interception return for a TD.
How Michigan ended up with a quarterback situation where they can’t throw the ball downfield without risking an interception is beyond me, but they have good enough players to execute a ball control, run-oriented, winning ugly strategy to still win plenty of games.
Without improvement in the passing attack though, I doubt they can win their remaining marquee games vs. Oregon and Ohio State. They need to beat one of those teams to avoid the three losses that would likely knock them out of the 12-team playoff picture.
3. Illinois with huge win at Nebraska 31-24 with well balanced attack raising expectations in Champaign.
The Illinois Fighting Illini walked into Nebraska’s Memorial Stadium on Friday night as 7.5-point underdogs. Nebraska fans were convinced after years of wandering in the college football dessert that includes no bowl games and no wins vs. Top 25 teams since 2016, that this is when the Huskers and Matt Rhule would cement themselves as a legit Top 25 team and officially turn the program around.
Bret Bielema and the Illini however would have none of it and with a balanced attack overcame a 24-17 fourth quarter deficit to pull out the 31-24 win in overtime. Against a stout Nebraska defense, Junior QB Luke Altmeyer was 21-29 for 215 yards and 4 touchdowns with no picks.
Illinois also was effective on the ground with 168 yards rushing at 4.4 yards/carry, which allowed the Illini to outgain the Huskers 383 yards to 347 and a 25 to 20 advantage in first downs. The defense also held the Huskers to just 50 yards rushing.
The takeaway is Bret Bielema has this team playing with resilience and in excellent position to make a bowl this year and potentially much more. They moved up to #19 in the AP poll rankings with two wins against Top 25 teams (Kansas being the other), they will be a handful for the rest of the Big Ten.
4. Nebraska, yet again, loses in a one-score game to Illinois in a game they should have won.
I pointed it out in my week 4 picks, where I predicted Nebraska to cover the 7.5 points they were giving Illinois. Nebraska had not beaten a Top 25 team since the 2016 season (that is 8 years according to my Indiana math). And Matt Rhule was 2-19 lifetime in games vs. Top 25 ranked teams – make that 2-20.
Husker fans have seen this story way too many times before and especially in the previous Scott Frost tenure. The inability to win one score games has been off the charts frustrating. The root cause has been mistakes and turnovers and in this one, though the Huskers had just one intercepted pass for a turnover to the Illini’s two lost fumbles, they had 9 penalties for 89 yards, which included three personal fouls.
They also suffered from poor execution in the fourth quarter including a missed field goal. New 5-star QB Dylan Raiola has been outstanding so far this year, but he had some first-year quarterback issues which included at 24-24 missing a wide-open tight end in the end zone with 3:03 remaining in the fourth quarter.
After Illinois scored first in overtime, Nebraska went backward in their possession with a sack of Raiola to end the game. I think Rhule is too good of a coach not to start to win these types of games. Their fans who just helped deliver their 400th straight sell-out at home certainly deserve that.
5. Under the radar Rutgers impresses with big 26-23 road win at Virginia Tech setting the stage for a potentially 10-win season.
Quietly the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 3-0 after a huge Week 4 win on the road 26-23 at the ACC’s Virginia Tech Hokies, which is not an easy place to play. This game was very much under the radar to the USC vs. Michigan clash in Ann Arbor and Friday’s Top 25 Illinois at Nebraska matchup.
Not only did Rutgers win but they amassed 422 total yards to Virginia Tech’s 320 and dominated time of possession holding the ball 39:23 vs 20:37 for the Hokies with a 25-14 first down advantage.
Rutgers knows they will be able to run the ball with 2023 Big Ten rushing leader Kyle Monangai. In this game he had 26 carries for just 84 yards and a touchdown but what was lacking last year is a supplemental pass attack which they got in this one with new quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis moving the ball effectively going 16-25 for 269 yards.
Rutgers is playing complimentary football with the defense playing well giving up just 15.7 points/game while the offense is averaging 39.7 points good enough for 4th in the Big Ten. And they have probably the easiest schedule in the Big Ten avoiding #3 Ohio State, #8 Oregon, #9 Penn State and #12 Michigan. Rutgers could be looking at a rare10-win season that has only been done twice in their history – 1976 and 2006.
6. Iowa wins at Minnesota – the running game looks great, but the passing attack is still not performing at the level needed to take the next step.
Coming into the season, under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester, the hope for Iowa fans is the Hawkeyes would get a solid passing attack to compliment a strong running game and their elite defense to take the program to the next level, which is truly challenging the Ohio State’s and Michigan’s of the world.
On Saturday the Hawkeyes found themselves down 14-7 at Minnesota, but in the second half they dominated the Gophers as the nations leading running back Kaleb Johnson rumbled for 206 yards on 21 carries for three touchdowns, including two in the third quarter of 15 and 40 yards to help complete the comeback in a 31-14 win.
It was vintage Iowa as the defense held the Gophers to just 288 yards and 14 points backed by two interceptions of new Gopher quarterback Max Brosmer.
It was a great win, but on the downside the passing game was unproductive once again with Cade McNamara going 11-19 for 62 yards and no touchdowns. Pro Football Focus has McNamara ranked as the 15th most productive quarterback in the Big Ten, and without better QB performance raises doubts the Hawkeyes can truly take the next step.
7. Indiana and the Curt Cignetti show rolls once again 52-14 over Charlotte putting them on brink of making the AP Top 25.
Indiana moved to 4-0 with an easy win over the Charlotte 49ers from the American conference. That makes Curt Cignetti the only Indiana coach ever to start their tenure 4-0. The Hoosiers 202 points scored through four games is also the most ever in Indiana history. All this has put Indiana on the brink of breaking into the AP Top 25 where they currently are 27th in total votes.
In this game Indiana outgained the 49ers 510 to 256 with a balanced attack that saw quarterback Kurtis Rourke execute efficiently again going 16-20 for 258 yards and a touchdown. Rourke may be the best quarterback in the Big Ten. Pro Football Focus has him rated 2nd in the Big Ten only behind Maryland’s Billy Edwards Jr. in QB efficiency. The rushing attack gained 222 yards at 5.4 yards/carry with six different players getting at least four carries.
Defensively Indiana is ranked third in the nation in yards allowed at 199 yards/game sandwiched between Ohio State and the Georgia Bulldogs to demonstrate the level they are playing at statistically so far this season.
Next up is Maryland at home that pits two of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten. A win likely puts the Hoosiers into the Top 25.
8. Ohio State and Penn State finish non-conference slate with blowouts – it finally gets real next week.
It’s been hard to write about #3 ranked Ohio State given their week non-conference slate. And I think most of the national media hasn’t even watched their games. And why would they when there have been so many other more compelling options.
In winning their first 3 games by a combined 157 to 20, including an easy home 49-14 win over Marshall on Saturday, their offense is 5th in the nation in offense at 552 yards/game and defense is 2nd in the nation at 180 yards/game allowed. Based on sheer talent, we know the Buckeyes are legitimately good, but how good we won’t know until they meet better competition. That starts this week at Michigan State.
Number 9 Penn State meanwhile does at least have a marquee 34-12 road win at West Virginia. On Saturday they drubbed struggling Kent State 56-0 at home. They had 718 yards of offense to the Golden Flashes 67 and had a 40-6 advantage in first downs. QB Drew Allar had 309 yards, and the rushing attack gained 309 yards on 6.2 yards/carry.
Similar to Ohio State, Penn State ranks really well nationally. They are 7th in the nation at 538 yards/game and 9th in the country giving up just 229 yards/game. The Nittany Lions needed quarterback Drew Allar to elevate his game and so far, he has done that currently ranking 6th among Big Ten quarterback in efficiency according to Pro Football Focus.
It gets more real for Penn State as well this week as they welcome #19 Illinois to Happy Valley,
9. Despite road loss to Boston College, Michigan State and coach Jonathan Smith has Sparty better than my expectations.
Even though Michigan State lost 23-19 at Boston College, the Spartans have really impressed me so far this year and are better than I expected. This was a road loss to Boston College team playing really well under new head coach Bill O’Brian. The Spartans were up 13-6 at the half and if not for losing the turnover battle 4 to 1 including three critical interceptions by first year starting QB Aidan Chiles, they likely would have won this game.
Michigan State outgained BC 368 to 292 and Chiles threw for 241 yards and has shown great promise. If he can cut down on the mistakes you often see from young quarterbacks, Michigan State has a chance to make a bowl game which many did not expect in Year 1 under Jonathan Smith.
10. The bottom Big Ten teams (Northwestern and Purdue) are really weak but maybe there is hope for UCLA.
Northwestern lost at Washington 24-5 to move to 2-2 on the season. The Wildcats had just 112 yards of total offense and gave up 391 yards to the Huskies. New quarterback Jack Lausch has not improved the Wildcats passing attack going 8-27 for 53 yards and two interceptions.
Northwestern is second to last in the Big Ten at 295 yards/game and Lausch is ranked second to last among Big Ten quarterbacks in efficiency according to Pro Football Focus. And their rushing attack is third to last in the Big Ten at 136 yards/game. This does not bode well for Northwestern to make a bowl game this year.
After losing to Notre Dame the prior week 66-7 at home, Purdue lost at Oregon State 38-21. Purdue actually gained 263 yards rushing on the Beavers but Hudson Card was just 7-17 for 56 yards. Given Card’s vast experience this lack of a passing attack is very concerning as Purdue is 15th in the Big Ten in passing at 172 yards/game.
And Purdue also ranks dead last in the Big Ten in defense giving up 392 yards/game. Looking at the Boilermakers schedule going forward, I think they may only be favored in a November 2 home game vs Northwestern. It could be a rough year two for coach Ryan Walters.
Finally, we have UCLA who after getting blown out at home by Indiana 42-13 in their Big Ten opener, played much better at LSU Saturday night where it was a 17-17 game at the half. But LSU dominated the second half winning 34-17.
While this offers hope, the lack of an effective run game is a problem for UCLA. Against LSU they had just 14 yards at 0.6 yards/carry. Excluding sacks they still only had 65 yards from the running back. The Bruins are dead last in the Big Ten on offense at 292 yards/game and second to last on defense giving up 387 yards/game.
