Week 5 Big Ten Football Top Storylines

In week 5 we had our first full slate of 8 Big Ten games with only one Top 25 clash in Illinois at Penn State.

Big Jeff’s Week 5 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)

But the Big Ten team with the worst football history in the conference is stealing the headlines. Let’s go into our Week 5 Big Ten football top storylines …

1. Curt Cignetti’s Indiana Hoosiers move to 5-0 – when a team hasn’t done something in 57 years, I have to put it as my #1 Week 5 Big Ten football top storyline.

The year was 1967. The Beatles epic album Sargent Peppers Lonely Heart Club Band’s songs were on the radio. Lyndon Johnson was the President, and I was even born that year, so it was certainly special for me.

That is also the last time the Indiana Hoosiers were 5-0 in football, led by coach John Pont that would eventually see Indiana finish 6-1 in the Big Ten and 9-2 overall. They ended up playing in the Rose Bowl that year losing to O.J. Simpson and the UCS Trojans 14-3.

New coach Curt Cignetti came into Indiana supremely confident he would have success and that is exactly what is happening to the surprise of almost everyone except this coach and his players. Despite three early turnovers from the Hoosiers, who had zero for the year coming into this game, their coach and the team did not panic in any way and settled down to pound out a 42-28 win over Maryland.

This is not the case of a team just barely finding ways to win to get to 5-0. They are dominating opponents. This is the first Hoosiers team since 1905 to win 5 games in a row by double digits. Yes, that’s 119 years. The last time they won 5 in a row at all was 1987 under coach Bill Mallory (when I was a sophomore at IU).

Statistically Indiana ranks up with the best in the country including #3 Ohio State. In the Big Ten they rate second in the Big Ten in offense at 513 yards/game which is just behind Ohio State and rate 9th nationally behind Texas. On defense IU is 4th in the Big Ten giving up 240 yards/game which also ranks 8th nationally.

The national media has finally noticed as Indiana entered the AP Top 25 for the first time this year at #23. And Cignetti’s attitude is he wants and expects more. A 9- or 10-win season for Indiana is not out of the question. And to put that in perspective, IU has never won 10 games in a season and has only won 9 games twice. In 1945 (9-0-1) and that wonderful 1967 (9-2) season.

2. The Big Ten has 11 teams remaining who could make the Playoffs with 3 more teams “eliminated”.

The expansion of the playoffs to 12 presents a huge opportunity for many Big Ten teams. Each week, I am going to speculate on how many teams could still make it. If you lose two games, that likely eliminates you unless the losses were to very highly rated teams.

This week we eliminated 3 more as these teams took their second loss of the year: Michigan State to Ohio State, Washington to Rutgers, and Maryland to Indiana.

Wisconsin also lost for the second time at USC blowing an 11-point lead, but I am not going to eliminate them since they lost to Top 5 team Alabama and a Top 15 team in USC. Maybe I should but not all losses are equal. You might be able to argue Michigan State should not be eliminated losing to the Buckeyes and Boston College, but I don’t see BC finishing in the Top 25 which likely would be needed to make the 12-team field.

That leaves us with 11 potential Big Ten teams to make the playoffs after Week 5: Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, USC and Wisconsin.

Here are the 7 eliminated teams: Michigan State, Washington, Northwestern, Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota and UCLA.

3. #12 Michigan squeaks by Minnesota by 3 but how does that on-side kick call get reversed?

The Minnesota Golden Gophers came into Michigan Stadium a struggling team at 2-2 and 14th in the Big Ten in overall offense, with a surprisingly for Minnesota one-dimensional offense ranking second to last in the Big Ten in rushing at 117 yards/game.

Despite Michigan also being one-dimensional on offense, I expected Michigan would easily win and cover the 9.5 points given their superiority in talent and home game environment. And that is how it was playing out with a Michigan 21-3 lead at the half. That lead held until the fourth quarter where Minnesota cut the lead to 24-10 with 14:01 left.

This sparked a big comeback by Minnesota who closed the gap to 27-24 with 1:37 left and then recovered an on-side kick that after a review, the referees reversed to the bewilderment of almost all third-party observers.

Michigan escaped but the win only raises more questions on the viability of the Wolverines winning their upcoming big games as their offense had just 241 yards of total offense including only 86 yards passing yards from QB Alex Orgi, who was 10-18 for 86 yards and one touchdown and one interception. The rushing attack gained just 3.6 yards/carry though RB Kalel Mullings was a star again running for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Next up is a game at Washington who I thought looked good vs. Rutgers on Friday night but made too many mistakes to win the game.

4. Wisconsin blows 11-point halftime lead at USC – their 22-year, longest-ongoing season winning streak of any Power 5 football program might be in jeopardy.

Not since 2001 has Wisconsin not had a winning season. That’s back when Badger legend Barry Alvarez was head coach and roaming the sidelines. Now in season two under Luke Fickell, the Badgers were expected to make a marked improvement this year. Thus far it hasn’t happened, and if anything maybe the Badgers have regressed.

On Saturday, Wisconsin took advantage of three USC turnovers and got a rare big play 63-yard TD pass from quarterback Braedyn Locke to help build a 21-10 lead at the half. The Badger defense was playing well, keeping Trojan quarterback Miller Moss mostly in check after a first drive touchdown, but was on the field far too much.

In the second half, after USC’s first drive ended in a three and out, they punted but the Wisconsin returner botched the catch and USC recovered at the 30. Nine plays later they scored a touchdown to make it 21-17 and from there it was all USC. They outscored the Badgers 28-0 in the second half to win 38-21 in a very deflating defeat for Wisconsin.

The natives are now getting restless in Badger land. The offense and the team even seems to have no defined identity. And they are only 9-8 under Fickell. Though Wisconsin does not play Ohio State or Michigan the schedule is not easy and includes games at Rutgers, vs. #7 Penn State, at Iowa, vs. #6 Oregon, and at Nebraska.

Ultimately, I don’t see them losing all those games to finish under .500 but even that this is a discussion is not what fans expected under a proven coach like Fickell.

5. USC may have saved their season with an 11-point comeback vs Wisconsin.

On the opposite side of Wisconsin’s pain, is USC feeling good about their resilience in overcoming three first half turnovers and a 21-10 deficit to the Badgers at halftime. This would have been a pretty devastating loss to USC given they had already lost to Michigan last week and were a 15.5 home favorite in this one.

Statistically the Trojans ended up mostly dominating with 469 yards to 286 for the Badgers in the 38-21 win. More important though is USC ran for 161 yards on 4.4 yards/carry, while holding Wisconsin to just 106 yards at 4.2 yards/carry. This is so important since Wisconsin wanted to run the ball and control the clock and in the long-term USC is going to have to be good against the run to succeed in the Big Ten.

USC also held the ball for 40:07 to Wisconsin’s 19:53. The key stat driving this was the Badgers were just 2-10 on third down and 0-2 on fourth down, so they could not stay on the field and that’s a credit to new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s impact on this team. On the flip side, USC was 11-17 on third down and 2-2 on fourth down and credit to quarterback Miller Moss’s execution in those spots who threw for 308 yards with 3 TDs and 1 interception.

Next up for USC is a road trip to a wounded Minnesota team who is 2-3.

6. #3 Ohio State passes first test at Michigan State and WR Jeremiah Smith may not even be human.

Ohio State finally had their first test Saturday at Michigan State. And the Spartans came out swinging ready for a fight, especially on offense. The first two drives the Spartans went 55 and 64 yards, but the second drive ended up in a lost fumble as did the fourth drive. But the Spartans showed they could move the ball early vs. the Buckeyes.

A key play was that fourth possession with the Buckeyes up 17-7, where MSU had a third and 3 from the OSU 16 and quarterback Aidan Chiles was hit and fumbled with Ohio State recovering. Replays showed the Buckeyes grabbed his facemask, but the call was missed.

This could have kept the Spartans in the game only to see right before halftime Ohio State get the ball at their own 40-yard line with 1:11 in the second quarter and march 60 yards to make it 24-7 at the half and pretty much put the game away.

The drive was highlighted by two Jeremiah Smith one-handed catches that were Sports Center “Top 10 Highlights” worthy. The first was a one-handed grab for 27 yards with two defenders hanging all over him. And the second was a Devin Brown 17-yard pass down the right side where Smith had to outstretch his right hand to snatch the ball as he went into the end zone for a TD.

With Smith Ohio State has weapons across all levels of the field making them so difficult to defend and one of the best offenses in the nation.

7. In the lone Big Ten Top 25 clash, #9 Penn State beats Illinois by 14 in a game that probably should have been much worse.

This one was a 19-point spread in favor of Penn State which was very surprising to me given how well the Illini were playing. Penn State won 21-7 but the reality is the Nittany Lions probably really should have won by more and covered that spread.

Penn State outgained the Illini 374 to 219 and rushed for 239 yards at 5.4 yards/carry to Illinois who had just 34 yards at 1.1 yards/carry. The Illini rushing figures were impacted by 7 Penn State sacks including two by defensive end Abdul Carter. The bottom line though is Penn State won this game up front on both sides of the ball.

Also hurting Illinois is they were +7 in turnovers coming into this game but were -2 in this game and lost a fumble and gave up an interception while PSU had zero turnovers. While it’s great QB Luke Altmyer continues to play well and had 185 yards passing, Illinois is very one-dimensional right now ranking third to last in the Big Ten in rushing at 3.8 yards/carry. Not a great recipe for Big Ten success.

The one negative for the Nittany Lions is Drew Allar was 15-21 but only for 135 yards so they are going to need more explosiveness from the passing game in their bigger games.

8. Rutgers moves to 4-0 with big win over Washington while getting outgained 521 to 299.

The tale of two cities so to speak. For one team, the execution and elements were all there to win a football game. No turnovers. Seven for fifteen on third downs. 184 yards rushing at 5.6 yards/carry. And only 4 penalties for 31 yards. For Rutgers these stats resulted in a tight 21-18 win to move to 4-0 on the season.

For the other team. You outgain your opponent 521 to 299. You pile up 207 yards at 7.1 yards/carry with your star Junior running back (Jonah Coleman) gaining 148 on 16 carries. Your quarterback Will Rogers is very efficient going 26-36 for 306 yards, 2 touchdowns and no turnovers. And for the game your team has no turnovers. Should be an easy win, right?

For Washington all this still ended up in a second disappointing loss on the year moving to 3-2 overall. Six penalties for 69 yards. 2-12 on third down. Some questionable play calling including why would a running back gaining 9.3 yards/carry only get the ball 16 times? And then painfully missing three Field Goals of 42, 37 and a 55-yard attempt to tie the game as time expired.

The takeaway is Rutgers remains on track to possibly win 9 or 10 games and achieve a huge break through year. For Washington and coach Jedd Fisch it’s what could have been. But I am quite high on Washington after seeing this one. They have a balanced offense with a good QB and one of the best running backs in the Big Ten in Coleman, so I think they can have some big wins if they clean up things.

9. #8 Oregon rolls UCLA by 21 in matchup of two programs moving in different directions.

Late Saturday night Oregon faced a familiar foe in UCLA in their Big Ten opener. It was an easy 34-13 win that maybe could have been worse as Oregon outgained UCLA 431-172 behind a defense that held UCLA to just 47 rushing at 2.0 yards/carry and picked off Bruins QB Ethan Garbers twice

Oregon continues to get better each game as they head toward their highly anticipated showdown with Ohio State at home on October 12. They have an experienced quarterback in Dillon Gabriel who is operating very efficiently going 31-41 for 278 yards in this game and are looking strong on both sides of the ball ranking 6th in the Big Ten in yards/game and 6th in yards/game given up.

On the other side is UCLA who fell to 1-3 overall and 0-2 in conference play. All three losses were in double digits at a combined total deficit of 67 points. On offense UCLA is ranked dead last in the Big Ten at 262 yards/game and last by far in rushing in the Big Ten at 57 yards/game. This is amazing given they led the Pac 12 in rushing last year and have similar personnel.

On defense things aren’t much better as UCLA is second to last in the Big Ten at 398 yards/game given up. Though I do think this defense is better than their stats show. Either way, new coach DeShaun Foster is under the gun already in his first year at UCLA.

10. Nebraska beats Purdue by 18 after finally deciding to try to win the game after a 0-0 halftime score.

This game started at 11 a.m. Central time. I am pretty sure both teams were still mostly asleep the entire first half of this one that was 0-0 at the half. Here are the drives for both teams in the first half:

• Nebraska: Punt, Missed FG, Punt, Missed FG, Punt, Missed FG
• Purdue: Punt, Missed FG, Punt, Punt, Punt, End of Half

That’s seven combined punts and 4 missed field goals including 3 by Nebraska. For Nebraska, though this game was ugly, they ended up winning which is really what matters in the end since this looked like it could be one of those one score games the Huskers have struggled with. Nebraska had zero turnovers but overcame 11 penalties for 95 yards.

Dylan Raiola played well once again going 17-27 for 258 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions which is probably the most important stat. The Huskers also gained 161 yards rushing so they had good balance.

For Purdue there has to be a lot of soul searching going on. They had 13 penalties for 165 yards and the score probably should have been worse. I am not sure if Purdue does anything well at this point ranking 15th in the Big Ten in offense at 322 yards/game and last in defense at 399 yards/game given up.

Purdue goes on the road to face a wounded Badgers team next, and Nebraska gets Rutgers at home.

10 Takeaways from Week 5: Milroe’s Heisman moment and Ole Miss goes down – NBC Sports