Big Jeff’s Week 6 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Week 5 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 6 picks, let’s first do a comprehensive review of how I did in Week 5, but also go deep with insights on some of the teams like Penn State.

(Odds by FanDuel on 9.25.25).

General Comments:

• I went 3-2 and for the second straight time in week 5.
• I lost my “LOCK CITY” pick of week game in USC vs Illinois and will have lots of comments on that. 
• Year-to-date I am 12-13 overall.
• You may think that record is poor and it is, but the challenge is the Big Ten non-conference schedule was so terrible it’s very hard to evaluate these teams early – now we are starting to really learn things.
• Here’s what I got right and wrong in Week 5.

What I Got Wrong in Week 5:

• Illinois beat USC 34-32; I thought USC’s offense was so much like Indiana and therefore Illinois would not be able to keep up in scoring vs USC and they would easily cover 6.5.
  • Huge props to Illinois and their coaching staff on this one and to Zack for choosing Illinois to win which I thought he was crazy.
  • I had said Illinois’ confidence was shaken so a good start was so important so when USC took the first drive to IL 30 but then fumbled, that was exactly what Illinois needed and what USC could not do. 
  • Illinois converted the turnover to a TD and bam game on. USC did have a couple O-line injuries that really hurt them, and their defensive leader was out, but playoff level teams are able to overcome those things and they couldn’t.
  • USC also continued their undisciplined play that included down 14-7 in 2Q a75-yard TD down negated for a linemen downfield penalty; USC is 2^nd last in the Big Ten (next to UCLA) and 125^th in the country with 78 penalty yards/game.
  • If not for a couple Illinois red zone turnovers this score should not have even been this close
  • Insights on Illinois: All off season I said Illinois was over-rated and not a true top 10 team but were Top 25; the Indiana blowout had me wondering if they were even Top 25, but this win confirms that, so Illinois is back to where I thought – a good but not great team.
  • And I still think Illinois offensive line despite playing well vs. USC limits the ceiling for them.
  • Insights on USC: What a huge disappointment in another one score loss and again giving up a 4^th quarter lead which was the story last year; USC still is not nearly good enough in the trenches; they have some good players but as a cohesive unit they still are not where they need to be to get into the top ¼ of the Big Ten.

• Indiana won at Iowa 20-15but did not cover the 7.5 as I predicted.
  • That’s 11 straight losses for Iowa in top 25 games leaving them 3-2 this year.
  • For Indiana, they move to 5-0 on the year and Curt Cignetti is 16-2 overall (89%) and 10-1 in conference – absolutely incredible; his short sample size record is even better than Ryan Day’s 88%-win rate.
  • In many ways this win is more impressive than an easy win since it shows Indiana can win in a defensive struggle or a high scoring game and you have to play and win close games to get good at doing that and to better prepare you for Playoff type games.
  • So just a huge, huge win for Indiana in a place where they rarely win.  And now after an off week they have a huge opportunity at Oregon.
  • Insights for Indiana: These two wins set them up great for the playoffs since even if they lose at Oregon and Ohio St – the rest of the schedule is very manageable to get to 10-2 ranking 35^th toughest in the nation but only 4 Big Ten teams have easier schedules – and Illinois beating USC was huge and it’s important for Illinois to stay in the Top 25
  • Just like last year the IU defense looks like a legit potential Top 10 team – against the best rated O-line in the Big Ten they only gave up 3.0 yards/carry to Iowa
  • Unfortunately, just like last year as well, the offense is only Top 25 like and not Top 10 in my view because I continue to worry about their offensive line which looks just good, not great and they continue to struggle against talented front four and against blitzing teams.
  • It’s the right side of the line that is the real weakness and PFF numbers support that.
  • But I think QB Fernando Mendoza is better than Kurtis Rourke and overall Indiana is better than last year’s team.
  • For Iowa, if Mark Gronowski who continues to improve his play (19-25, 144 yards, 1 INT), had not gotten hurt they might have won this game.
  • Iowa’s problem is the difficulty of their remaining schedule which is 5^th toughest in the Big Ten and includes home games vs Penn State and Oregon along with trips to USC and Nebraska.

What I Got Right in Week 5:

• Ohio State won at Washington 24 to 6 in very impressive fashion and broke Washington’s 22-game home winning streak.
  • Me and everyone wondered if Ohio State could shut down Washington’s great 3 headed monster but especially dynamic dual threat QB Demond Williams Jr. who had this as the second highest scoring offense in country at 55.7 ppg
  • Washington hadn’t punted on their last 25 drives and were converting third downs at a 75% rate. 
  • I had said Ohio State’s defense is strong across all 3 levels and has the stars to at least slow down a great Washington offense
  • What did they do?  Kept Washington out of the end zone and only 6 points, held them to 1-11 on 3^rd downs, and only 234 yards of total offense while compiling 6 sacks on Demond Williams and completely containing his running ability.
  • OSU leads the nation giving up 22 points in 4 games and hasn’t given up red zone TD
  • I listened to Todd McShay’s podcast where he lauded Demond Williams Jr. capabilities along with RB Jonah Coleman and WR Denzel Boston and thought OSU would totally have their hands full containing them.
  • But after this game and watching the tape McShay said this Ohio State defense is the “Gold Standard” and best in college football which is amazing after losing 8 starters to the NFL.
  • He highlighted how the linebackers Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese are the best pair in football and Reese looks like the best linebacker.
  • He also talked about the D-line as the big question mark coming in but how impeccable they are in their gap fits and how relentless they play; and then OSU’s back end is elite of focurse.
  • Insights for Ohio State is that both McShay and Joel Klatt feel OSU is the one team that have not nearly tapped their full potential.
  • Klatt said he felt OSU has only put into 3rd gear based on the offense’s potential and there is a whole another level they can get to
  • And I agree because I expect OSU to really open up the offense more with first year starter Julian Sayin starting this week vs Minnesota
  • For Washington, the consensus is they are still under-rated, and this is a legit Top 25 team and I agree with that.
  • Washington hung in there pretty well with Ohio State in the trenches and they have legit offensive star power.

• Oregon beat Penn State 30-24 in Overtime in the White Out and I had Oregon beating Penn State as the favorite by 3 points,
  • Let’s start with Oregon since any team that wins in that tough white out environment deserves huge praise and they were brilliant and are 11-0 since entering the Big Ten in 2024.  Amazing.
  • Donte Moore could be the best QB in college let alone the Big Ten, with draft guru Todd McShay calling him the best pure passer right now in college football.
  • Their defense was great – but let me say it sure helps to be able to play defense within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage when you know the other team and QB can’t throw deep well and take the top off the defense. 
  • I equate it to when you play Penn State it’s almost like going against an offense that is perpetually in the Red Zone as you don’t need to worry about them throwing deep.
  • This makes Oregon look like almost a lock to make the playoffs and they have the best win in the Big Ten.
  • On the Penn State side.  So many things could be said here.  I want to give some insights based on what I am hearing from other experts and some thoughts of my own.
  • I had predicted Oregon based on asking who do you trust more in big games, James Franklin or Dan Lanning and questioning how good of a QB is Drew Allar and doubting he would make enough big plays to win the game.
  • First, the terrible non-conference schedule ranked 123^rd in the nation was terrible for Penn State because they didn’t really learn anything about themselves and likely did not get any better playing those games.
  • It only served to raise some red flags that turned out to be true which was the offense looked stagnant not because the game plans were vanilla but because Penn State has real offensive issues.
  • Second, the offensive issues were never was about Penn State lacking good receivers, it turns out it was all about Drew Allar who is only an average quarterback and likely has a limited ceiling.
  • In his seven losses as a starter, Allar has averaged just 171 passing yards per game with a 50% completion rate and a 61.1 Total QBR
  • In this one Allar was 14-25 for 137 yards (that’s 5.5 yards/attempt), 2 TDs and of course the game ending interception.
  • The idea that last year they didn’t have receivers they could trust is bogus as former WR Harrison Wallace is leading #4 Ole Miss in receiving (17 receptions for 361 yards, 21.2 ypc, 2 TDs) and is 6^th in the SEC in receiving
  • Keandre Lambert-Smith from 2 years ago got drafted in the 5^th round after playing at Auburn for a season and plays for the Charges.
  • Todd McShay represents how many scouts feel about Allar.  They love his big arm, his competitiveness and fight, how he has some athleticism and can really drive the ball BUT he can’t throw the deep ball, does not throw with anticipation and can’t make layered throws so you have to rely on short simple routes. 
  • Even before the game, McShay felt Oregon would win since they had such a huge advantage at quarterback with Donte Moore.
  • Third, I don’t think Penn State really found something when they scored 2 TDs in the 4^th quarter to tie it and take it to overtime.
  • With about 12 minutes left, Oregon led 17-3, having outgained Penn State by a 352-109 margin. (Yards per play to that point: 5.9 to 2.9.)
  • Allar did have some good plays, but I attribute that more to what you often see late in games when teams are up and the defense goes from an aggressive, shutdown mindset to more of a prevent mode mindset and you often see offenses thrive in those cases.
  • Fourth, I asked in the Big Ten Huddle post-game chat about why James Franklin who is the only head coach who does not call plays have a play calling sheet in his hands the size of a kitchen table?
  • This tells me he has his hands too much in the offensive game plan vs letting his OC run the show and just holding him accountable; maybe I am off base there, but my point is whatever he has been doing is simply not working so he needs to make some big changes.
  • Also, OC OC Andy Kotelnicki needs to get lambasted since he is planning and executing game plans that aren’t a good fit for Drew Allar.  If he were that bad where there is no good game plan to execute with Allar then they should have kept Beau Pribula.
  • Also, vs Oregon think of how badly they could have used Pribula’s different dimension, but I digress.
  • Bottom line is a don’t know what the answers on offense are for Penn State given Allar’s limitations.  You can see they have to get way more aggressive, but can Allar even execute to that?  This is the most important bye week in James Franklin’s tenure to figure it out.

• The final game I got right was Minnesota beating Rutgers by 3, which they exactly did 31-28. 
  • It was the second straight rough loss for Rutgers after leading 14-0 early and falling to 3-2, and their remaining schedule is 3^rd hardest in the nation and second in the Big Ten only to Wisconsin. 
  • Getting to 6 wins now would be a great job by Greg Schiano.
  • The win for Minnesota moves them to 3-1 but their schedule is much more manageable except for a Saturday visit next to Ohio State.  I think 7 or 8 wins is a real possibility for the Gophers, but they need to get running back Darius Taylor back.

ig Jeff’s Week 5 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week %sep

Forde-Yard Dash: Bold Predictions Put Shocking Unbeaten SEC Team in Spotlight

Week 6 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 10.2.25.

This week we have 7 total games including one non-conference game and 6 conference clashes.  My top 5 games to cover will exclude the non-con game of course but also Penn State at UCLA which has the highest spread at 25.5 and will be prone to a backdoor cover.

Just a reminder when I analyze these picks it’s all about “Matchups and Motivation”.  I am looking for edges in both as a look at two opponents.

Other Big Ten Conference Games (2)

Penn State -24.5 UCLA (50.5 O/U)

NORTHWESTERN -11.5 UL Monroe (40.5)

Week 6 Big Jeff’s Picks of the Week Games (vs the Spread) SUMMARY

Game 1: #1 OHIO STATE -23.5 Minnesota (44.5 O/U)

Background:

Coming off a bye at home vs Rutgers after a disappointing loss at California, Minnesota found themselves down 14-0 early only to come back to win 31-28 to move to 3-1 overall and 1-0 in the Big Ten.   Rutgers outgained the Gophers 393 to 362.

Minnesota has major injury issues at running back where star Darius Taylor has missed the last two games and RB #2 transfer A.J. Turner from Marshall got hurt in the California game and is out for the year.  Against Rutgers, the Gophers only had 38 yards rushing at 2.2 yards/carry with the leading rusher true freshman Fame Ijeboi who had only 12 carries for 37 yards.

That left it up to first year starter Drake Lindsey to lead the offense going 31-41 for 324 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, completing passes to 9 different players led by freshmen Jalen Smith who had 4 catches for 103 yards and a TD.  Until Darius Taylor returns, Minnesota is going to be a one-dimensional offense.

Ohio State is 4-0 and coming off an important 24-6 road win at Washington.  The Buckeyes are leading the nation in scoring defense giving up just 5.5 points/game and are second in the Big Ten and first in the nation in total defense at 229 yards/game.   On offense, Ohio State is just 6^th in the Big Ten at 446 yards/game and averaging 36.3 points.  OSU is 7^th in Big Ten passing (265 ypg) and 7^th in rushing as well (181 ypg).

Minnesota is 1-3 against the spread this year, while Ohio State is 3-0-1 against the spread.  Ohio State leads the all-time series 46-7, including 27 of the past 28 with the last Minnesota win 29-17 in Columbus in 2000.

Why Ohio State Can Cover:

This is a perfect setting at home and with young QB Julian Sayin now having 4 starts including two big games under his belt to open up the offense more to help cover the 23.5.  The big talk of Ohio State fans is why they have been so conservative on offense.  I think there are multiple reasons.  First, they know they have a great defense and with a young QB they are playing to prevent turnovers until he gains more experience.  Second, other teams know OSU’s receivers and Tight Ends are the strength of the offense and they have relatively young and more unproven running backs so on defense they are mostly playing two deep safeties with not many in the box set on stopping big plays.

Also, history shows the deep safety looks are the best way to slow down Jeremiah Smith.  It adds up to the Buckeyes are taking what the defense is giving them and not forcing things.  And it’s working.  Not only is OSU 4-0 but they are covering the spread at 3-0-1 on the year.  Finally, Ryan Day and Brian Hartline want to leverage those weapons and know they will need a healthy passing game to repeat as champions.

Ohio State also has an opportunity to get the running game going after Minnesota gave up 161 yards to Rutgers Antwan Raymond and emerging #1 freshman running back Bo Jackson seems on the brink of having a big game.  Coming into the Rutgers game the Gopher defense in general and run game was amongst the best in the nation. Before Rutgers they were leading the nation in both total defense at 178 yards/game and rushing defense at 41 yards/game but that may have been driven more by the weak level of competition. 

Raymond topped 100 yards for the first time on the year with 26 carries for 161 yards (6.2 ypc) and 2 TDs.  Meanwhile the Buckeyes Bo Jackson has emerged as the # tailback and leads the team in rushing with 297 yards and 8.5 yards/carry good for 3^rd in the nation and has a 64-yard carry but also many other times has almost busted out a big run.  Jackson ranks third among Big Ten running backs in “breakaway percentage”.

A one-dimensional offense vs Ohio State’s elite defense is a total mismatch for Minnesota.  Minnesota’s ability to cover 23.5 may hinge on if Taylor can play in this game.  If he is not close to 100% healthy, I am not sure you play him in a game like this though.  Minnesota’s run offense is 12^th in the Big Ten at 144 yards/game and they are averaging only 4.0 yards/carry.  Any offense that can’t run the ball is in a really bad spot against an OSU defense with a great pass rush and super talented and athletic back 7.

Why Take the Points with Minnesota:

Minnesota has a solid defense and if Ohio State’s conservative game plans continue they might stay within 23.5 of the Buckeyes.   Despite struggling vs. Rutgers, Minnesota’s defense still looks good statisticallygiving up 16.3 points/game which is 8^th in the Big Ten, only give up 66 rushing yards/game which is 2^nd in the Big Ten and are 7^th in Big Ten pass defense.

To disrupt the OSU offense requires a really good defensive line and while Minnesota’s line ranks fairly weak per PFF they have a good defender in left end junior Anthony Smith who ranks 14^th among Big Ten defensive ends in PFF for overall defense (22nd in pass rushing).   The Gophers have been very successful in their pass rush with 14 sackes which is tied for 6^th in the nation on a per game basis. 

If they have success in their pass rush maybe that keeps the Buckeyes conservative on offense and hold the scoring down.

Given their run game struggles, Minnesota needs a really big game from QB Drake Lindsey and based on his play he is capable to hurt the OSU defense and move the ball.  As a first-year starter, Lindsey’s stats have been impressive amongst many Big Ten quarterbacks playing well.  He’s completing 66% of his passes, averages 240 yards/game, with 7 TDs and only 2 interceptions.  In fact, PFF has him with the highest overall offensive and passing QB grade in the Big Ten.  It’s imperative Minnesota protects Lindsey and he has a good game vs offensive success.

Minnesota’s offensive line is also statistically good with all but right guard Marcellus Marshall (PFF 49.2 grade) ranked in the top 47 of all Big Ten offensive linemen.  Given Ohio States elite defensive line play they are getting led by end Caden Curry and Kayden McDonald, it’s imperative the Gophers line play well up front to have a chance.  The bad news is McDonald might be lined up against the Gopher weak link in Marshall creating a huge mismatch.

Minnesota scoring could come down to red zone success but they only rank 91^st in the nation in conversion rate and have 12 TDs in 21 red zone trips.  Meanwhile, Ohio State is #1 in the nation in red zone defense allowing just 7 attempts with 0 touchdowns and just 2 field goals.

Big Jeffs Call:  I think a night home game that should be a high energy environment is the perfect setting to be much more aggressive in the passing game with Julian Sayin in his 5^th start and Minnesota’s one-dimensional offense will struggle to do much especially given how elite Ohio State is in the red zone.

To get the upset or keep it close Minnesota needs turnovers, yet they are just +2 on the season tied for 41^st in the nation, that includes 3 interceptions.  Ohio State is +1 this year.  Despite being so conservative on offense, the Buckeyes are still 3-0-1 vs the FanDuel spread and I think they do it again in this one.   Ohio State 42 Minnesota 10. Confidence: High.

Game 2: #20 MICHIGAN -16.5 Wisconsin (43.5 O/U)

Background:

Wisconsin is 2-2 overall and 0-1 in the Big Ten coming off a bye week after a terrible 27-10 home loss to Maryland.  Do we have any idea of what to expect from Wisconsin in this game?  So many questions:

• What is the mental state of this team now?  Have they lost confidence in their coach? And will they still be motivated for the rest of the season?
• Who will play quarterback?  Will Billy Edwards, Jr. play?  If not, will it be x or x.
• Will their offensive line, which has been very weak, improve significantly in the off week to give them a chance in this game and for the rest of the year?
• Can they get their run game going?

And at this point what is Wisconsin’s identity?  On offense they rank 2^nd to last in the Big Ten in total offense with 324 yards/game and shockingly are 16^th in the Big Ten in rushing at 118 yards/game, while also 16^th to last in points at 20.8/game. 

Wisconsin is still solid on defense at least 8^th in the Big Ten giving up 285 yards/game but #1 in the Big Ten and in the nation in rushing defense at only 50 yards/game.  So maybe that is the answer.  The Badgers are great at stopping the run.

Michigan is 3-1 overall and 1-0 in the Big Ten and also coming off a bye week but they are coming off a huge win at Nebraska 30-27.   That win put Michigan in position to potentially make the playoffs since they have a very reasonable Big Ten schedule the rest of the way avoiding both Top 10 teams Penn State and Oregon.

Michigan has gotten solid play from freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood but more importantly both lines played much better against Nebraska and pretty much dominated the line of scrimmage which has been Michigan’s recipe for success for many years now.

Wisconsin is 1-3 against the spread this year while Michigan is 2-2 vs the spread but have covered the last 2 games.

Why Michigan Can Cover:

This is such a bad matchup for Wisconsin because Michigan’s biggest strength is their defensive line, while Wisconsin’s biggest weakness right now (maybe beyond QB) is their offensive line.  That’s not a good combo.  Add to it that Wisconsin is experimenting trying to cover their problem at center with the injury of Jake Renfro who is questionable to play, and taking a left tackle (Davis Heinzen) who had hoped to start at that position but inserting him at center so they have a veteran starting vs a freshman.

Michigan’s defense is a solid 10^th in the Big Ten in total defense at 291 yards/game but that’s against the 10^th toughest schedule in the nation so far.   They are especially stingy against the run ranking 4^th in the Big Ten giving up 78 yards/game.  This will go up against the Badges 16^th ranked Big Ten run offense.   

From a matchup perspective, the entire Michigan front 4 ranks good to very good in PFF (69.8 to 77.6), while Wisconsin’s offensive line ranks poorly ranging from 58.9 to a 65.5 rating and that supports what we have seen, so I just don’t see the Badgers have success running the ball in this game and needing to rely on a very shaky passing game and quarterback situation. 

Michigan running back Justice Haynes is a home run hitter and might be the best running back in the Big Ten and provides big play ability to the Michigan offense that Wisconsin does not have.   I had Haynes as my Big Ten newcomer of the year, and he is playing like it.  Michigan’s big play ability really comes from the run game, and it’s led by Haynes who averages 134 yards/game, 8.1 yards/carry (6^th in the nation) and 6 touchdowns.   In 3 of 4 games his longest carry is 59, 75 and 75 yards.  He can break off a big play at any time.

Michigan can accumulate points just kicking long field goals with the best kicker in the Big Ten Dominic Zvada.   Michigan only needs to get the ball to the 40 to score points as Zvada is 7 of 9 in field goals but 2-3 from 40 to 49 yards and 1-1 from 50+ yards.  Wisconsin has a good defense, so I expect Sherrone Moore to take the points with field goals when it’s there.

Why take the points with Wisconsin: 

Let’s be real here and I don’t need to overcomplicate things for the Badgers.   This Wisconsin offense is not going to score much at all against Michigan unless they get some turnovers.  With the exception of scoring 42 vs. Middle Tennessee State, Wisconsin has scored 17 (on Miami, OH), 14 and 10 points. 

Wisconsin will need their defense to play lights out and here is the formula to get the cover or the upset.

Wisconsin’s #1 national ranked run defense shuts down Justice Haynes and the Michigan running game forcing freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to thrive in the passing game to move the ball.  This is not a totally crazy scenario.  First, though Michigan’s offensive line definitely beat Nebraska’s line, it’s questionable how good the Husker line is having lost so many starters.  This Wisconsin line ranks very well according to PFF and especially at both defensive end positions where Darryl Peterson ranks 2^nd among Big Ten ends in defense and 3^rd in rush defense and Mason Reiger ranks 5^th in both overall Big Ten defense and run defense.

Meanwhile, Michigan’s overall PFF grades are mostly mediocre with the best lineman in right tackle Andrew Sprague who is 37^th in the Big Ten offensive linemen blocking (@70.4) and the next best Wolverine is 50^th.

Second, despite impressive rushing stats from Michigan where they average 6.7 yards/carry, a lot of that has been driven by the big plays they have had in particular from Justice Haynes.  According to PFF, Haynes has 7 plays of 15 yards or more and is 3^rd in the Big Ten in breakaway rushing percentage, while Jordan Marshall is also 15^th for Michigan.  If Wisconsin can prevent those big plays, they have a chance to really bottle up the Michigan offense.

Finally, Underwood is certainly a rushing threat himself, so the trick is how to contain his rushing ability since Michigan does not have great downfield weapons and Underwood is only completing 57% of his passes for 183 yards/game with just 2 passing touchdowns and 1 interception.

Big Jeff’s Call: Wisconsin’s defense needs to win this game.  Their stinginess against the run matches up well the Michigan offense.  The problem is Wisconsin’s weak offensive line is a terrible matchup with Michigan.  Wisconsin has had two weeks to work on things so maybe they will be better on the line, and find something on offense, but should I count on that?  No.  

Michigan is feeling good after a big win at Nebraska and Sherrone Moore is coming off suspension so they will be energized so I have to take Michigan and the points. Michigan 31 Wisconsin 10.  Confidence: Medium assuming Billy Edwards Jr. does not play.

Game 3: #22 Illinois -9.5 PURDUE (55.5 O/U)

Background:

Purdue is 2-2 overall and 0-1 in conference under first year coach Barry Odom and has been a pleasant surprise and are and coming off a bye after losing to Notre Dame 56-30.   If not for a difficult remaining schedule that includes ranked Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana, I would say they have a good shot at a bowl game, but the next 4 games are critical for that pursuit with winnable games vs Illinois, at Minnesota, at Northwestern and vs. Rutgers.

Illinois meanwhile is 4-1 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten after having a huge bounce back game upsetting USC 34-32 as a 6.5-point underdog after getting shellacked by 53 the week before to Indiana.   The Illinois offensive line which looked so awful vs Indiana actually outplayed the USC defensive line in the trenches and the defense played well vs a high-powered USC offense.

The Illini looks just like I felt when the season started.  I very well coached Top 25 team but one that is overrated in talking about them as a Top 10 like team which they were two weeks ago.  And similar to last year Illinois stats are mostly middle to lower in the Big Ten statistically ranking 12^th in the Big Ten in offense (376 ypg) and 16^th in defense at 375 ypg and they don’t really excel in any one area.

Illinois is 4-1 against the spread this year, while Purdue is 2-2 vs. the spread.  Last year Purdue almost upset Illinois in overtime eventually losing 50-49.

Why Illinois Can Cover:

Purdue’s defense has badly struggled against good offenses and with a quarterback like Luke Altmyer Illinois should put up points that Purdue will have to keep up with.  Purdue ranks 16^th in Big Ten defense giving up 370 yard/game, ranking 12^th in pass defense and 15^th in run defense – though to be fair 2 of their 4 opponents rank in the Top 20 offensively as USC (3^rd offense in nation) piled up 460 yards on Purdue and Notre Dame (16^th in offense) went for 535 yards.

Altmyer has been very good when he is given time completing a career high 71% of his passes with 11 TDs and 0 interceptions.  If Illinois’ line plays like last week, when Altmyer threw for 328 yards and 2 TDs, then they are going to have a lot of success against this average at best Purdue defense.

Since Illinois plays statistically average (Net +1 yards/game), they need to continue to win in the margins like for turnovers where they are +5 on the year.  Illinois is tied for 17^th in the nation in turnover margin with 8 takeaways and only 3 giveaways.  Purdue meanwhile is 126^th worst in the nation and 17^th in the Big Ten in turnover margin at -5 (only Northwestern is worst) with 6 interceptions from QB Ryan Browne and only 1 takeaway.

When Illinois plays teams where the talent is fairly equal, they wait for the other team to make mistakes and pounce on it. 

Why take the points with Purdue: 

Illinois has an average defense and Purdue’s offense has been the strength of the team and I think Purdue can keep up with Illinois in scoring IF THEY DON’T TURN THE BALL OVER.  In the last two games, Illinois has given up an average48.5 points/game and a combined 1,069 yards (579 to Indiana and 490 to USC).

Purdue has only scored 37 vs USC and Notre Dame but piled up 357 and 379 yards respectively vs. those two driven by their passing game which is 4^th in the Big Ten averaging 280 yards/game, while their running game is a bad 17^th in the Big Ten (109 ypg).  Even though Purdue does not have a balanced offense, Illinois defense is not good enough to shut down a team because of it.  If he takes care of the ball Ryan Browne could have a big day vs. Illinois.

Given two straight emotional Top 25 games for Illinois, Purdue coming off a bye and Ohio State looming for Illinois next week, I feel the mental side strongly supports Purdue in this game.   It’s been a wild ride for Illinois over the past two weeks and now they go on the road for one of those Noon games where it can be hard to get the energy level up.  Will Illinois properly get up for this game and will they be thinking about a potential program defining game at home vs Ohio State next week.  

Purdue should come into this fired up and thinking a win can catapult them to a potential bowl game.

Big Jeff’s Call: Based on last year, Purdue will come into this game really believing they will beat Illinois, and I feel Purdue will hold the mental edge after two emotional games for Illinois.  But Illinois still has a strong decision-making edge at QB in Luke Altmyer so while Purdue will keep it close to cover, Illinois and Bielema will come away with another one score win.   Illinois 34 Purdue 27.   Confidence: Low

Game 4: Washington -5.5 MARYLAND (52.5 O/U)

Background:

This game reminds me a lot of Illinois at Purdue in that the mental side of things is going to play a huge role.

Washington is 3-1 overall and 0-1 in the Big Ten but coming off a highly anticipated and emotional loss vs Ohio State 24-6 breaking their 22-game home winning streak.  Washington’s high-powered offense was mostly shut down by Ohio State but they might be the top defensive unit in the nation.

Now they travel across the country to play a fresh and confident Maryland team.  Last year Washington was literally terrible on the road going 0-5 losing by 3 to Rutgers, 24 to Iowa, 14 to Indiana, 29 to Penn State and 28 to Oregon.  That’s an average loss of about 20 points/game.  This will be a great test of the growth and maturity of the Washington program in the second year under Jedd Fisch.

Maryland is 4-0 overall and 1-0 in conference including a big win at Wisconsin 27-10.  They have a young team led by freshman QB Malik Washington and Mike Locksley went from hot seat coach to a coach who is super excited for the future.

Washington is 3-1 vs the spread this year and Maryland is 2-2 vs the spread.

Why take the points with Washington:

Despite being shut down by Ohio State, Washington’s offense is still very balanced and has 3 difference-making stars that will be much more difficult for Maryland to contain.  OSU contained Demond Williams Jr. but that will be much tougher for Maryland and importantly running games travel better than passing games and I expect Washington to run the ball right at the young, talented Maryland line.

Maryland is 5^th in Big Ten offense, 6^th in Big Ten passing with big play ability from Denzel Boston (275 yards, 14.5 ypc) and 5^th in Big Ten rushing led by Jonah Coleman (417 yards at 6.5 ypc and 9 TDs), while Williams adds 192 rushing yard rushing.  The Huskies have offensive answers to what defenses try to take away.

Maryland’s has a bad run offense and is over reliant on the passing of a true freshman which will make it a lot easier for Washington to contain a one-dimensional offense.  Maryland is last in the Big Ten in rushing at 103 yards/game and only 3.3 yards/game.   The leading rusher is DeJuan Williams with 183 total yards at 3.9 yards/carry. 

In the Big Ten that is not a long-term recipe for success and Washington is talented enough to take advantage.  Despite significant injuries, Washington is still 9^th in Big Ten total defense and 10^th in pass defense.

Why Maryland Can Cover: 

Maryland’s passing attack under QB Malik Washington is legit and 6^th in the Big Ten going against a Washington secondary that may be missing one of their two best cornerbacks.  Maryland averages 266 yard/game passing and while Washington is only completing 60% of his passes, he’s been mostly efficient throwing for 8 TDs and 1 interception and a solid for a freshman PFF offensive grade ranking 9^th in the Big Ten.  He has several good receiver and tight end targets with 3 of them over 150 yards led by senior Shaleak Knotts with 276 yards at 19.7 yards/catch and 5 TDs.   

Washington’s pass defense is a mid-level 9^th in the Big Ten giving up 202 ypg and veteran cornerback Tacario Davis missed the Ohio State game, and his status is unknown for Maryland.  So far with Davis out there’s been a big drop off in the Huskies CB play.

Maryland’s young defensive line is playing really well which is required to potentially contain the higher-powered Washington offense.  All 4 Maryland defensive lineman rank well in PFF led by 7^th Big Ten rated defender in tackle Cam Rice and ends Sidney Stewart and big-time recruit Zahir Mathis ranked 22nd and 24^th in the Big Ten among all defensive linemen. 

Washington is traveling 2,800 miles after an emotional game vs. Ohio State and went on the road last year so it’s a question if the Huskies can get up enough to win this game.  There should be no doubt Maryland will have the mental edge in this game and be the fresher team.  It helps Washington that the game starts at 3:30 EST which is 12:30 Pacific time though since that is a more reasonable timeframe.  Maryland hopes Washington doesn’t handle multi-time zone road trips better this year than last.

Big Jeff’s Call: I believe Washington is a flat-out better team than Maryland, despite their improvement.  But college football doesn’t always work that clean with the Huskies traveling 3 time zones and being 0-5 on the road last year to play making this game a very tough call.  Also, we are now into October as well where Mike Locksley starts to struggle traditionally. 

I was prepared to take Maryland here until researching and seeing Maryland is worst in the Big Ten in rushing.  Do I want to really almost solely rely on a freshman QB offensively to cover this game?  That makes me uncomfortable, especially with how dynamic Demond Williams, Jr. is.  I am going with the Huskies to cover and win a close one.  Washington 31 Maryland 23.  Confidence: Low

Game 5:  NEBRASKA -10.5 Michigan State (-48.5 O/U)

Background:

Nebraska is 3-1 overall and 0-1 in the Big Ten coming off a bye week after a another disappointing Top 25 loss at home to Michigan 30-27 in which the Wolverines pretty much dominated the line of scrimmage.

Nebraska is still in position to have a really good year because their remaining schedule ranks as easiest in the Big Ten according to PFF (40^th in the nation) and they avoid playing Oregon and Ohio State with their only Top 25 game against Penn State the second to last week.  I had predicted Nebraska goes 9-3 this year and that still is in play.

Michigan State is 3-1 overall and 0-1 in the Big Ten after losing two weeks ago at USC 45-31.  The Spartans goal should be getting to the 6 wins needed to make a bowl game, but they have a pretty tough remaining schedule from PFF ranking 5^th toughest in the Big Ten and 14^th in the nation including Top 25 games vs. Indiana, Michigan and Penn State.  This is a gettable game for Sparty as they seek those 6 wins.

Nebraska is 9-4 vs Michigan State all time, but the series is 4-4 since Nebraska entered the Big Ten, but Michigan State has won the last two.  Michigan State is 1-3 against the spread and covered their most recent game at USC.  Nebraska is 2-2 vs the spread.

Why Nebraska can cover: 

Nebraska’s passing attack looks like a total mismatch against Michigan State’s passing defense implying that Nebraska will put up plenty of points in this game.   Nebraska is 4^th in Big Ten total offense but surprisingly lead the Big Ten in passing (and 2^nd in the nation) at 352 yards/game while Michigan State’s pass defense is dead last in the Big Ten giving up 264 yards/game.

Quarterback Dylan Raiola is thriving in his second season under Offensive Coordinator Dana Holgorsen’s offense completing 75% of his passes with 11 TDs and only 1 interception, which is huge progress over last year’s 13/11 TD to INT ratio.

Raiola is being helped by having much better weapons this year as 5 different players have over 100 yards receiving led by Jacory Barney Jr. at 301 yards, 14.3 ypc and 3 TDs. 

Nebraska run defense is a major weakness but Michigan State’s run game is pretty average so I am not sure they are equipped to take full advantage of this.  Nebraska ranks second to last in Big Ten run defense giving up 173 yards/game at 5.18 yards/carry which ranks 123^rd (of 134) in the nation and they really struggled against Michigan giving up 286 yards and 8.7 yards/carry and many chunk plays.

But, running the ball is not Michigan State’s strength as they are middle of the pack (10^th) in the Big Ten in rushing at 154 yards/game and only 4.3 yards/carry led by running back Makhi Frazier with 267 yards and 4.7 yards/carry.  Aiden Chiles is 2^nd leading carrier at 154 yards but these number don’t suggest the Spartans will take advantage of Nebraska’s weakness in run defense.

Why take the points with Michigan State:

Michigan State’s pass defense weakness is overstated because they have played 2 of the top 5 passing offenses in the nation giving them hope they can contain Nebraska’s passing attack as one of the big keys to the game.  In the Spartans 4 games they have played Boston College which is the #4 passing team in the nation at 345 yards/game and USC which is #5 in the nation at 338 yards/game. 

Looking at PFF numbers, the Spartans cornerbacks aren’t bad ranking 21^st (Malcolm Bell) among Big Ten cornerbacks in coverage and 33^rd (Joshua Eaton).  The weakness is the safeties who rank among the worst in the Big Ten.  Michigan State’s defensive line play has not been great either per the rankings, but they are up against a Nebraska offensive line whose PFF stats are average at best.   It’s not a given Nebraska’s pass game will easily have a big day.

Nebraska appears to have a great passing defense that should contain QB Aidan Chiles and star WR Nick Marsh, but I think that has been driven by their schedule and the Spartans will have success moving the ball through the air.  Nebraska leads the Big Ten and the nation in pass defense at 76 yards/game, but they have faced pass offenses ranking 116^th (Akron), 104^th (Michigan), FCC Houston Christian and then a good Cincinnati pass offense ranking 25^th but that game was close throughout.

Looking at PFF grades, Nebraska’s cornerbacks and safeties only rank pretty average in pass coverage, and their overall defensive line player rankings are also mid-range with the exception of freshman Williams Nwaneri.  In fact, the best pass rush Big Ten player for Nebraska doesn’t appear until #51 in end Dasan McCullough (grade of 74.0).

Meanwhile, while the Spartans only rank 12^th in Big Ten pass offense (220 ypg), I think they can have success as Aidan Chiles continues to improve and is completing 69% of his passes with 9 TDs and only 1 interception and he has good weapons in sophomore receiver Nick Marsh (222 yards, 3 TDs) and Omari Kelly (317 yards, 15.1 yards/catch).

Red Zone success will be a key for Michigan State to keep up in scoring and they rank strong in this area while Nebraska is mostly untested.   Michigan State ranks 31^st in red zone efficiency (5^th in the Big Ten) at 94% conversion rate but also has 12 TDs in 17 red zone trips. 

Meanwhile, amazingly Nebraska has only allowed 4 red zone trips all season (allowing 3 scores and 2 TDs) but some of that reflects their weak schedule and Michigan for example getting most of their points from long, explosive plays.   With a dynamic QB in Aidan Chiles, I think Michigan State will have red zone success with Nebraska.

Big Jeff’s Call: Under Matt Rhule, Nebraska has struggled to put teams away and the current 11.5 spread just feels awfully high.  Nebraska’s pass defense appears great, but my research shows I think that is overblown and combined with Michigan State’s strong red zone offense stats, I think the Spartans will keep up with Nebraska and cover but the Huskers get a rare one score game victory. And I am calling this my Lock City pick of the week. Nebraska 31 Michigan State 24. Confidence: High