Week 6 was the second week of the season where we had a full slate of 8 Big Ten games. Even though we had no Top 25 matchups, it still was a very revealing week for many Big Ten teams. So, let’s get into our Week 6 Big Ten football top storylines …
Big Jeff’s Week 6 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Big Jeff’s Football (bigjeffsfootball.com)
1. Oregon and Ohio State are legit Top 5 teams and the benchmarks for all other Big Ten teams – and next week’s game should be an epic clash.
Ohio State’s visit to Oregon on October 12th has been one of the most anticipated college football games going all the way back to the Spring by the entire college football universe. Both teams started the year in the Top 5, but Oregon dropped out due to some sluggish early games. Now, I expect Ohio State to be ranked #2 and Oregon #3 coming into this one and it will generate some huge TV ratings on Saturday night. And we already know ESPN’s College Gameday has said they will be there.
These two teams have all the ingredients you need to compete for and win a National Championship. On offense they both have experienced and efficient quarterbacks in Will Howard for the Buckeyes and Dylan Gabriel for the Ducks. They have really good running games backed by excellent running backs, physical offensive lines up front, and explosive playmakers on offense that can create quick scores.
On defense they both have deep, physical and talented defensive lines and are strong against both the run and the pass. From a statistics perspective, Ohio State is better ranking first in the Big Ten giving up just 202 yards/game where Oregon is 6th giving up 263 yards/game. But Oregon did play a tough Boise State team who is ranked #21 and has a good offense with maybe the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty who is averaging 10.9 yards/carry with 1,056 yards through 5 games.
In the old college landscape, this game could have been life or death. But with the 12-team playoffs, this could be the first of possibly two or even three matchups potentially of these two teams this year including the Big Ten Championship and the playoffs.
And these teams are recruiting in the Top 5 nationally with big NIL budgets so they really are the Big Ten benchmark programs that everyone should be emulating.
2. Penn State is a playoff team but doesn’t look like a national title contender.
Penn State took care of business beating a struggling UCLA team 27-11 on Saturday moving PSU to 5-0 for the fourth straight season under James Franklin. But there are concerns. The offense needs to be more explosive under second year QB Drew Allar, and while it is much better, it still is not where it needs to be.
Last week Penn State beat Ilinois at home in a 21-7 rock fight, that probably should have been a bigger win. Then this week the Nittany Lions were for the most part in control against UCLA but they only outgained the Bruins 322-260 and a couple big concerns emerged on offense.
For one, with running back Nick Singleton sitting out PSU only had 85 rushing yards at 2.8 yards/carry. And the passing game under Allar generated 237 yards which is good, but Penn State seems to lack the true game breaking play makers that are needed to win a championship. We are still 5 games in so there is time to continue to develop more explosiveness, but this is a worry.
Next up is a big road test at USC who will be hurting and likely very focused after an upset loss to Minnesota.
3. Michigan finally found their quarterback! Oh wait … maybe not. And that means Michigan has major issues.
With 9:38 left in the second quarter at Washington, the Huskies scored to make it 14-0 and Michigan had 47 yards of offense and badly needed a spark. Sherrone Moore replaced quarterback Alex Orgi with veteran QB Jack Tuttle and immediately marched 75 yards in 7 plays capped by a 39-yard Donovan Edwards to make it 14-7.
After a three and out by Washington, Michigan went 56 yards to convert a field goal and went into the half down just 14-10. Then to start the second half the Wolverines went 75 yards again but this time in 11 plays with Tuttle going 4-5 for 56 yards and hitting TE Colston Loveland for the 8-yard TD to cap the drive. Michigan was up 17-14 and it looked like the quarterback riddle was solved – Jack Tuttle is their man!
Hmmm. Not so fast. From that first second half drive, Michigan’s drives went Punt (1 yard gained), Punt (4 yards), Fumble Lost by Tuttle (13 yards), and Tuttle Interception (6 yards). It all led to a 27-17 Washington win leaving the Wolverines 4-2 and not able to afford another loss for their hopes to make the 12-team playoffs.
Maybe more alarming for Michigan is they were outgained 429 to 287 yards to the Huskies, and their defense gave up 315 yards passing at 9.5 yards/attempt. On the season, despite having the highest ranked NFL draftable cornerback in Will Johnson, Michigan ranks third to last (16th) in the Big Ten in passing defense giving up 260 yards/game.
If Michigan can’t stop the pass and can’t pass the ball themselves, they are in big trouble and could be looking at a 7- or 8-win season. Next up is a bye week before an important road visit to #24 Illinois. Despite Tuttle’s struggles in the second half, I do think he is the best QB to run the offense and offers Michigan the highest ceiling.
4. Indiana is not only a good football team, but they are also legit contenders to make the Big Ten title game.
As an Indiana alum, I keep waiting for Indiana to have their clunker game. Curt Cignetti and crew will have none of it as IU outgained Northwestern 529 to 336 on the road for their 6th straight double-digit win 41-24. That makes Indiana bowl eligible already and they have an off week before welcoming Nebraska at home October 19 that will be a matchup of Top 25 teams.
Normally this time of year Indiana fans are shifting their focus to basketball season, but this team and coaching staff is changing that dynamic. They are confident, don’t make many mistakes as they had just 22 penalty yards and no turnovers in this one. And they are well-balanced team ranking 4th in the Big Ten in defense in yards/game and 1st in offense at 516 yards/game rating 1st in passing and 5th in rushing.
Kurtis Rourke may be the best quarterback in the Big Ten and went 25-33 for 380 yards and 3 touchdowns. Indiana has a legitimate chance to win 10 games or more and make it to the Big Ten championship game. They have Nebraska and Washington at home. Michigan State on the road. Michigan at home, Ohio State on the road and then finish at home vs Purdue. They might be favored in all of these games except for OSU. Fun times in Bloomington whose fans should be dreaming big.
5. USC’s upset loss to Minnesota is bad and means we need to dramatically recalibrate what their season will look like.
After coming back from a 21-10 halftime deficit to Wisconsin the prior week, where USC scored 28 unanswered second half points to win 38-21 and set them up to have a really good season, USC gave it all back on Saturday night in Minneapolis.
As an 8-point favorite, they lost a 17-10 third quarter lead to fall to the Gophers 24-17. This could be looked back as a devastating loss for the Trojans this season as they fell to 3-2 and 1-2 in the Big Ten.
Coming into this one Minnesota uncharacteristically had a very bad rushing game ranking second to last in the Big Ten at 101 yards/game, so they had a one-dimensional offense. USC had to think if we contain Gopher QB Max Brosmer we win this game. Instead, Minnesota had their best running game of the year piling up 193 yards at 4.8 yards/carry led by sophomore running back Darius Taylor who had 144 yards on 25 carries.
Last week’s game vs Wisconsin was very physical, so I think that took a toll on USC and you saw it’s impact in this game. USC also ran the ball well at 173 yards and 6.2 yards/carry which is excellent, but they threw the ball 38 times for just 200 yards so maybe USC should have run the ball more? Minnesota threw it just 19 times. When you factor in Miller Moss threw 2 interceptions, I believe that answer is yes.
Now USC is looking at welcoming #7 Penn State to the Colosseum and the possibility of being 3-3 and 1-3 in the Big Ten. They also play at Washington, vs Nebraska and end it with #14 Notre Dame. Evan an 8-4 season would have to be a disappointment for USC fans.
6. Nebraska under Matt Rhule is now winning the type of close games they used to lose showing this program has turned the corner.
Last week Nebraska was tied at the half to Purdue 0-0 and ended up winning 27-10. This week the Huskers faced running and defensively minded Rutgers. The type of team where you can likely count on a one-score game. And that is exactly how it played out in Lincoln Saturday, as Nebraska pounded out a 14-0 halftime lead and gave up a late fourth quarter Rutgers touchdown to win 14-7.
The game was pretty ugly for both teams as Rutgers had only 264 yards of offense to 261 for Nebraska. But Rutgers are experts at winning only so a 14-7 win is actually a beautiful win for Matt Rhule’s team given their inability to win one score games in the recent past.
Nebraska had just 97 yards rushing at 2.3 yards/carry and Dylan Raiola was just OK going 13-27 for 134 yards and an interception. But doing what you need to do to win can be a hallmark of winning programs and Nebraska is 5-1 and 2-1 in the Big Ten.
Next up for Nebraska is an off week before a likely Top 25 matchup at 6-0 Indiana.
7. Washington’s big win over Michigan shows they may have the biggest upside of any Big Ten team the second half of the year.
I was impressed with Washington the previous week when despite losing at Rutgers 21-18, they statistically dominated the game and showed great potential. I felt Washington had likely the biggest upside of any Big Ten team saying in my game preview “statistically this Washington team is damn good and are strong candidates to have a great second half of the year”. The Huskies 27-17 win over Michigan Saturday night proved that out.
Coming into the game on offense the Huskies ranked 4th in the Big Ten at 469 yards/game and on defense ranked 5th giving up just 250 yards/game. All the ingredients for a good team are there. They have an efficient and veteran QB in Will Rogers, a stud running back in Jonah Coleman, and a stingy defense.
After getting out to a 14-0 second quarter lead and looking really good, Michigan made a quarterback change and grabbed the momentum eventually going up 17-14 after a TD on their opening second half drive. But unlike in their losses to Washington State and Rutgers, the Huskies showed resilience and good execution in scoring the final 13 points, helped by finally getting 2 clutch fourth quarter field goals by Grady Gross.
Looking ahead the schedule is still tough with 4 road games, including at #23 Indiana, #7 Penn State and #6 Oregon, and 2 home games. But the win over the Wolverines should provide the confidence the Huskies need to know they can upset some teams.
8. Minnesota’s big upset win over UCS shows PJ Fleck is right – Minnesota was the best 2-3 team in America.
The Gophers were 2-3 with a 19-17 loss to North Carolina from a missed last second field goal. A home loss to Iowa in which they led 14-7 at the half. And a 27-24 road loss to #12 Michigan in which a controversial reversed on-side kick prevented them from potentially tying or winning the game.
PJ Fleck stated Minnesota was the best 2-3 team in America. The Gophers comeback 24-17 win over USC that saw them overcome a 17-10 third quarter deficit makes PJ look like a prophet. A loss dropping Minnesota to 2-4 may have jeopardized their chances to make a bowl game so this was a HUGE win.
The story of this one is the emergence of the lost Minnesota running game. Coming in the Gophers were second to last in the Big Ten at 101 yards/game, while last year they were 7th in the Big Ten and averaged 158 yards/game. To restate from the USC summary above, Minnesota had their best running game of the year piling up 193 yards at 4.8 yards/carry led by sophomore running back Darius Taylor who had 144 yards on 25 carries.
This is such great news for the Gophers since new QB Max Brosmer has really improved the passing game where they rank 11th in the Big Ten at 216 yards/game. While this may not sound great, last year they averaged just 143 passing yards so the ability to play better complimentary football is a big positive for what might be the best 3-3 team in America.
9. Wisconsin blows out Purdue in potential get right game, but we will know if that is true when they visit Rutgers next week.
Wisconsin & Fickell Handing Back DNA to Rhule & Nebraska – Mike Farrell Sports
After blowing a 11-point lead at halftime last week at USC to move to 2-2 on the year, many experts and even Badger fans have questions on if Luke Fickell is the right fit at the school. Coming into this one I had tweeted the prior week on X that here are the records of the most recent Wisconsin coaches two years into their tenures:
- Luke Fickell 9-8 (in Yr 2)
- Paul Chryst 21-6
- Gary Anderson 19-7
- Bret Bielema 21-5
- Barry Alvarez 6-16
The Badgers were in bad need of a “get right” game to build some confidence for the team but also quarterback Braedyn Locke. Enter the Purdue Boilermakers. After a fairly slow start in which Wisconsin led 14-6 with 3:37 left in the half, the Badgers scored on a 75-yard march before the half to go up 21-6. That set the stage for the Badgers to blitzkrieg the Boilermakers, scoring touchdowns on the first 4 drives of the second half and a field goal on the 5th drive to win 52-6.
It had to be a huge confidence builder for Locke who finished 20-31 for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns, despite 2 interceptions. This is what Badger fans expected when Fickell hired OC Phil Longo and his vaunted experience running the more open attack Air Raid offense. For the game, Wisconsin exploded for 589 total yards to Purdue’s 216, so it was a complete team effort.
Next up is a road game vs tough but one-dimensional 4-1 Rutgers, then at 2-3 Northwestern so if the Badgers really did “get right” in this game, they should win the next two to be 5-2 and feeling pretty good about themselves before a home October 26 showdown vs #7 Penn State.
10. Purdue is shockingly bad and there is a real chance 2nd year coach Ryan Walters gets fired in-season.
Where is the bottom for Purdue after this 52-6 drubbing at Wisconsin? Purdue doesn’t do anything well except make mistakes. The Boilermakers are dead last in the Big Ten by a wide margin on team defense giving up 437 yards/game and a worst 36.8 points/game. In fact, nationally the 36.8 pts/game ranks 10th to last in all of D-1 football between UAB and Western Michigan.
On offense, Purdue is second to last in the Big Ten at 301 yards/game and tied for second to last at 18.6 points/game scored and have no real identity.
Walters was hired as the hot Defensive Coordinator from Illinois and went 4-8 in his first year and 3-6 in-conference which was a pretty good start. But they have greatly regressed so far this year which has to be alarming. And recruiting does not look good which is another red flag as according to Rivals.com, Purdue currently ranks last in the Big Ten for their 2025 recruiting class.
Purdue fans only have to look a little south at what Indiana is doing under experienced Head Coach Curt Cignetti to ask the question did we make a mistake hiring a guy with no prior and proven head coaching experience. That is always a huge risk hiring the hot coordinator. If the Purdue leadership feels they did get this hire wrong, history shows it’s better to move on sooner than later to get your program back on the right track.
But you do give him the chance to right the ship for the rest of this season at least through late November. Unfortunately, the schedule is brutal with at #24 Illinois next followed by a visit from #6 Oregon.
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